European tech funding declines for third consecutive year — but the sector is finally stabilizing
On Monday, British tech lobby group Startup Coalition warned in a blog post that there was a risk Reeves’ tax plans could result in a tech “brain drain.”. (Photo by Oli Scarff/Getty Images)
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Venture capital investment in European technology startups is projected to decline for a third straight year, according to VC firm Atomico — but there are signs that things are finally stabilizing as valuations improve and interest rates fall.
Europe’s venture-backed startups are expected to secure $45 billion of investment by the end of 2024 — slightly lower than the $47 billion they raised last year, Atomico said Tuesday in its “State of European Tech” report.
Still, Atomico said this shows that European tech funding levels have finally “stabilized” despite worsening global macroeconomic conditions leading to three consecutive years of declines.
The firm stressed that the continent’s tech ecosystem is in a much better place than it was a decade ago, with funding this year still set to eclipse the $43 billion startups raised between 2005 and 2014.
In the period spanning 2015 to 2024, European startups have bagged $426 billion, dwarfing the sum of investment deployed into tech firms the decade prior.
Tom Wehmeier, head of insights at Atomico, told CNBC that Europe still has a few key areas of improvement to address before it can produce companies of similar scale to the largest tech firms in the U.S. and China.
“There’s frustrations about the continued challenges faced when it comes to regulation, bureaucracy, access to capital and this idea of scaling across the fragmented European marketplace,” Wehmeier said in an interview.
For example, pension funds in Europe face barriers to investing in venture capital funds and therefore aren’t gaining much exposure to the continent’s fast-growing startup ecosystem, Wehmeier said.
European pension funds allocate just 0.01% of the $9 trillion worth of assets they manage into venture capital funds based in the continent, according to Atomico’s report.
The 2024 publication marks the 10th anniversary since Atomico began compiling its annual report, which is produced in partnership with data firm Dealroom.
Europe’s first $1 trillion tech firm?
According to Atomico there are signs that the sector is improving. In the U.K., for example, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves last week laid out plans to consolidate 86 separate local government pension pots into eight “megafunds” to boost investment in domestic assets.
British tech advocacy group techUK said the reforms “should address barriers to greater availability of pension fund capital and encourage a vision that sees more investment into UK tech science start-ups and scale-ups.”
Reforms to pension schemes are either underway or being discussed in several other countries across Europe.
“These changes could result in billions more being made available to European scale-ups — and that’s something that could be the difference between the best and brightest companies scaling from here in Europe, versus being forced to relocate,” Wehmeier told CNBC.
Atomico said it’s optimistic about the next decade in European tech. The VC firm, which was established by Skype co-founder Niklas Zennström, is predicting the entire European tech ecosystem combined could be valued at $8 trillion by 2034, up from around $3 trillion currently.
Atomico also predicts that Europe will mint its first-ever trillion-dollar tech company in a decade’s time.
While Europe is home to several so-called “decacorns” valued at $10 billion and above, including Arm, Adyen, Spotify and Revolut, it has so far failed to produce a company valued at $1 trillion.
That’s unlike the United States, where several of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology companies are now worth over $1 trillion. They include Google parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook-owner Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
“If we can unlock capital at scale, keep the brightest minds in Europe, maintain that focus on solving really hard problems for society and the economy, that’s how we go and unlock the first trillion-dollar company,” Wehmeier said.
Figma co-founder and CEO Dylan Field said Thursday that artificial intelligence doesn’t pose a serious threat to the future of the design software company, which is on the verge of debuting on the public markets.
“We’re in this moment where you might, if you’re singularity-pilled, go, ‘Hey, superintelligence is coming and it’ll be able to do things that no human can do,” Field told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “I have a harder time believing that we’re going to approach that really quickly right now, but that doesn’t mean it’s out of the picture.”
Figma is slated to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol “FIG” on Thursday. Last week, the company estimated that it would price shares in the range of $25 to $28, and on Wednesday it priced above that range at $33 a share.
The offering values Figma, which ranked No. 45 on this year’s CNBC Disruptor 50 list, at $19.3 billion.
The company was supposed to be acquired by Adobe for $20 billion, but the deal was scrapped in December 2023 after regulators objected.
So-called “superintelligence,” a type of artificial intelligence that would be more powerful than the human brain, has recently become a growing focus among technology companies.
Field told CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin that the company’s “complex” graphics engine and other aspects of its technology make it difficult to be replaced by superintelligence.
“I think that’s not stuff that you can learn from looking at code and sort of various places on the internet,” Field said. “It’s not part of the pre-training data mix. I believe that doing that at scale — it’s quite difficult.”
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been especially vocal about the potential for superintelligence, declaring in a Wednesday memo that the technology will serve as a tool for “individual empowerment” over automation and efficiency.
Meta recently created a lab to pursue superintelligence, and Zuckerberg has poured billions of dollars into building a roster of top AI talent.
— CNBC’s Jordan Novet contributed reporting to this story.
META CEO Mark Zuckerberg (L) and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.
Getty Images
Shares of Meta soared 12% and Microsoft popped 5% on Thursday, after the companies reported better-than-expected earnings that beat on top and bottom lines.
Microsoft topped the $4 trillion market cap benchmark with the move, joining Nvidia in the club.
Both Meta and Microsoft have been investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure in recent years, and the companies said they expect to continue to shell out billions in capital expenditures.
Meta said capital expenditures will range between $66 billion and $72 billion for the full year, raising the low end of the company’s previous estimate of between $64 billion and $72 billion. Microsoft sees over $30 billion in fiscal first quarter capital expenditures and assets acquired through finance leases, while analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha had expected $24.23 billion.
Analysts at Citi said the companies’ increased capital expenditures will likely be a boon for chipmakers. Microsoft makes up roughly 8% of Advanced Micro Devices‘ sales, while Meta makes up about 2% of Broadcom’s sales, the analysts said.
“We believe AVGO and AMD will be the primary beneficiaries of Microsoft’s and Meta’s increased capex,” they wrote in a Thursday note.
In addition to increased capital expenditures, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has been on an AI hiring blitz, highlighted by a $14.3 billion investment into the data-labeling startup Scale AI and the launch of its new Meta Superintelligence Labs unit.
Morgan Stanley analysts said they “applaud the effort” and are pleased with the state of Meta’s core business, but they remain a little wary of Zuckerberg’s AI spending.
“On one hand, the core business is so strong that it’s paying for all the new AI talent and infra several times over, but on the other hand the cavalier nature by which Zuckerberg is throwing money around is a bit unnerving, especially if things don’t come together as planned with the new superintelligence team,” the analysts wrote.
Barclays analysts said Microsoft’s generative AI scaling is still playing out, but the strong demand for its data center infrastructure continues to point to ongoing momentum for the quarters ahead. They maintained their overweight rating on the stock.
“With its strong Q4 FY25 results, MSFT confirmed its unique status in the software space and will likely continue to be one of the core holdings by investors,” they wrote in a note Wednesday.
Microsoft reported $76.44 billion in revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter, up 18% year over year. The company said net income increased to $27.23 billion, or $3.65 per share, from $22.04 billion a year ago.
Meta reported $47.52 billion in revenue for its second quarter, up 22% year over year. Its net income rose 36% year over year to $18.34 billion, or $7.14 per share.
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