On Monday, British tech lobby group Startup Coalition warned in a blog post that there was a risk Reeves’ tax plans could result in a tech “brain drain.”. (Photo by Oli Scarff/Getty Images)
Oli Scarff | Getty Images
Venture capital investment in European technology startups is projected to decline for a third straight year, according to VC firm Atomico — but there are signs that things are finally stabilizing as valuations improve and interest rates fall.
Europe’s venture-backed startups are expected to secure $45 billion of investment by the end of 2024 — slightly lower than the $47 billion they raised last year, Atomico said Tuesday in its “State of European Tech” report.
Still, Atomico said this shows that European tech funding levels have finally “stabilized” despite worsening global macroeconomic conditions leading to three consecutive years of declines.
The firm stressed that the continent’s tech ecosystem is in a much better place than it was a decade ago, with funding this year still set to eclipse the $43 billion startups raised between 2005 and 2014.
In the period spanning 2015 to 2024, European startups have bagged $426 billion, dwarfing the sum of investment deployed into tech firms the decade prior.
Tom Wehmeier, head of insights at Atomico, told CNBC that Europe still has a few key areas of improvement to address before it can produce companies of similar scale to the largest tech firms in the U.S. and China.
“There’s frustrations about the continued challenges faced when it comes to regulation, bureaucracy, access to capital and this idea of scaling across the fragmented European marketplace,” Wehmeier said in an interview.
For example, pension funds in Europe face barriers to investing in venture capital funds and therefore aren’t gaining much exposure to the continent’s fast-growing startup ecosystem, Wehmeier said.
European pension funds allocate just 0.01% of the $9 trillion worth of assets they manage into venture capital funds based in the continent, according to Atomico’s report.
The 2024 publication marks the 10th anniversary since Atomico began compiling its annual report, which is produced in partnership with data firm Dealroom.
Europe’s first $1 trillion tech firm?
According to Atomico there are signs that the sector is improving. In the U.K., for example, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves last week laid out plans to consolidate 86 separate local government pension pots into eight “megafunds” to boost investment in domestic assets.
British tech advocacy group techUK said the reforms “should address barriers to greater availability of pension fund capital and encourage a vision that sees more investment into UK tech science start-ups and scale-ups.”
Reforms to pension schemes are either underway or being discussed in several other countries across Europe.
“These changes could result in billions more being made available to European scale-ups — and that’s something that could be the difference between the best and brightest companies scaling from here in Europe, versus being forced to relocate,” Wehmeier told CNBC.
Atomico said it’s optimistic about the next decade in European tech. The VC firm, which was established by Skype co-founder Niklas Zennström, is predicting the entire European tech ecosystem combined could be valued at $8 trillion by 2034, up from around $3 trillion currently.
Atomico also predicts that Europe will mint its first-ever trillion-dollar tech company in a decade’s time.
While Europe is home to several so-called “decacorns” valued at $10 billion and above, including Arm, Adyen, Spotify and Revolut, it has so far failed to produce a company valued at $1 trillion.
That’s unlike the United States, where several of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology companies are now worth over $1 trillion. They include Google parent company Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook-owner Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla.
“If we can unlock capital at scale, keep the brightest minds in Europe, maintain that focus on solving really hard problems for society and the economy, that’s how we go and unlock the first trillion-dollar company,” Wehmeier said.
Microsoft owns lots of Nvidia graphics processing units, but it isn’t using them to develop state-of-the-art artificial intelligence models.
There are good reasons for that position, Mustafa Suleyman, the company’s CEO of AI, told CNBC’s Steve Kovach in an interview on Friday. Waiting to build models that are “three or six months behind” offers several advantages, including lower costs and the ability to concentrate on specific use cases, Suleyman said.
It’s “cheaper to give a specific answer once you’ve waited for the first three or six months for the frontier to go first. We call that off-frontier,” he said. “That’s actually our strategy, is to really play a very tight second, given the capital-intensiveness of these models.”
Suleyman made a name for himself as a co-founder of DeepMind, the AI lab that Google bought in 2014, reportedly for $400 million to $650 million. Suleyman arrived at Microsoft last year alongside other employees of the startup Inflection, where he had been CEO.
More than ever, Microsoft counts on relationships with other companies to grow.
It gets AI models from San Francisco startup OpenAI and supplemental computing power from newly public CoreWeave in New Jersey. Microsoft has repeatedly enriched Bing, Windows and other products with OpenAI’s latest systems for writing human-like language and generating images.
Microsoft’s Copilot will gain “memory” to retain key facts about people who repeatedly use the assistant, Suleyman said Friday at an event in Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, headquarters to commemorate the company’s 50th birthday. That feature came first to OpenAI’s ChatGPT, which has 500 million weekly users.
Through ChatGPT, people can access top-flight large language models such as the o1 reasoning model that takes time before spitting out an answer. OpenAI introduced that capability in September — only weeks later did Microsoft bring a similar capability called Think Deeper to Copilot.
Microsoft occasionally releases open-source small-language models that can run on PCs. They don’t require powerful server GPUs, making them different from OpenAI’s o1.
OpenAI and Microsoft have held a tight relationship shortly after the startup launched its ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, effectively kicking off the generative AI race. In total, Microsoft has invested $13.75 billion in the startup, but more recently, fissures in the relationship between the two companies have begun to show.
Microsoft added OpenAI to its list of competitors in July 2024, and OpenAI in January announced that it was working with rival cloud provider Oracle on the $500 billion Stargate project. That came after years of OpenAI exclusively relying on Microsoft’s Azure cloud. Despite OpenAI partnering with Oracle, Microsoft in a blog post announced that the startup had “recently made a new, large Azure commitment.”
“Look, it’s absolutely mission-critical that long-term, we are able to do AI self-sufficiently at Microsoft,” Suleyman said. “At the same time, I think about these things over five and 10 year periods. You know, until 2030 at least, we are deeply partnered with OpenAI, who have [had an] enormously successful relationship for us.
Microsoft is focused on building its own AI internally, but the company is not pushing itself to build the most cutting-edge models, Suleyman said.
“We have an incredibly strong AI team, huge amounts of compute, and it’s very important to us that, you know, maybe we don’t develop the absolute frontier, the best model in the world first,” he said. “That’s very, very expensive to do and unnecessary to cause that duplication.”
President Trump’s new tariffs on goods that the U.S. imports from over 100 countries will have an effect on consumers, former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer told CNBC on Friday. Investors will feel the pain, too.
Microsoft’s stock dropped almost 6% in the past two days, as the Nasdaq wrapped up its worst week in five years.
“As a Microsoft shareholder, this kind of thing is not good,” Ballmer said, in an interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin that was tied to Microsoft’s 50th anniversary celebration. “It creates opportunity to be a serious, long-term player.”
Ballmer was sandwiched in between Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and current CEO Satya Nadella for the interview.
“I took just enough economics in college — that tariffs are actually going to bring some turmoil,” said Ballmer, who was succeeded by Nadella in 2014. Gates, Microsoft’s first CEO, convinced Ballmer to join the company in 1980.
Gates, Ballmer and Nadella attended proceedings at Microsoft’s Redmond, Washington, campus on Friday to celebrate its first half-century.
Between the tariffs and weak quarterly revenue guidance announced in January, Microsoft’s stock is on track for its fifth straight month of declines, which would be the worst stretch since 2009. But the company remains a leader in the PC operating system and productivity software markets, and its partnership with startup OpenAI has led to gains in cloud computing.
“I think that disruption is very hard on people, and so the decision to do something for which disruption was inevitable, that needs a lot of popular support, and nobody could game theorize exactly who is going to do what in response,” Ballmer said, regarding the tariffs. “So, I think citizens really like stability a lot. And I hope people — individuals who will feel this, because people are feeling it, not just the stock market, people are going to feel it.”
Ballmer, who owns the Los Angeles Clippers, is among Microsoft’s biggest fans. He said he’s the company’s largest investor. In 2014, shortly after he bought the basketball team for $2 billion, he held over 333 million shares of the stock, according to a regulatory filing.
“I’m not going to probably have 50 more years on the planet,” he said. “But whatever minutes I have, I’m gonna be a large Microsoft shareholder.” He said there’s a bright future for computing, storage and intelligence. Microsoft launched the first Azure services while Ballmer was CEO.
Earlier this week Bloomberg reported that Microsoft, which pledged to spend $80 billion on AI-enabled data center infrastructure in the current fiscal year, has stopped discussions or pushed back the opening of facilities in the U.S. and abroad.
JPMorgan Chase’s chief economist, Bruce Kasman, said in a Thursday note that the chance of a global recession will be 60% if Trump’s tariffs kick in as described. His previous estimate was 40%.
“Fifty years from now, or 25 years from now, what is the one thing you can be guaranteed of, is the world needs more compute,” Nadella said. “So I want to keep those two thoughts and then take one step at a time, and then whatever are the geopolitical or economic shifts, we’ll adjust to it.”
Gates, who along with co-founder Paul Allen, sought to build a software company rather than sell both software and hardware, said he wasn’t sure what the economic effects of the tariffs will be. Today, most of Microsoft’s revenue comes from software. It also sells Surface PCs and Xbox consoles.
“So far, it’s just on goods, but you know, will it eventually be on services? Who knows?” said Gates, who reportedly donated around $50 million to a nonprofit that supported Democratic nominee Kamala Harris’ losing campaign.
AppLovin CEO Adam Foroughi provided more clarity on the ad-tech company’s late-stage effort to acquire TikTok, calling his offer a “much stronger bid than others” on CNBC’s The Exchange Friday afternoon.
Foroughi said the company is proposing a merger between AppLovin and the entire global business of TikTok, characterizing the deal as a “partnership” where the Chinese could participate in the upside while AppLovin would run the app.
“If you pair our algorithm with the TikTok audience, the expansion on that platform for dollars spent will be through the roof,” Foroughi said.
The news comes as President Trump announced he would extend the deadline a second time for TikTok’s Chinese-owned parent company ByteDance to sell the U.S. subsidiary of TikTok to an American buyer or face an effective ban on U.S. app stores. The new deadline is now in June, which, as Foroughi described, “buys more time to put the pieces together” on AppLovin’s bid.
“The president’s a great dealmaker — we’re proposing, essentially an enhancement to the deal that they’ve been working on, but a bigger version of all the deals contemplated,” he added.
AppLovin faces a crowded field of other interested U.S. backers, including Amazon, Oracle, billionaire Frank McCourt and his Project Liberty consortium, and numerous private equity firms. Some proposals reportedly structure the deal to give a U.S. buyer 50% ownership of the company, rather than a complete acquisition. The Chinese government will still need to approve the deal, and AppLovin’s interest in purchasing TikTok in “all markets outside of China” is “preliminary,” according to an April 3 SEC filing.
Correction: A prior version of this story incorrectly characterized China’s ongoing role in TikTok should AppLovin acquire the app.