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It was easy to wonder if there might be a little bit of a hangover this season. Mike Norvell weathered a strange, stair-stepping climb to greatness with Florida State — his Seminoles went 3-10 in his first 13 games, then 9-6 in the next 15, then won 19 in a row — but endured one of the most gut-wrenching season finishes you’ll ever see. First, the unbeaten Noles were snubbed out of a spot in the final four-team College Football Playoff; then, with a number of starters having either opted out or opted for season-ending surgery, they got completely humiliated 63-3 by Georgia in the Orange Bowl.

Norvell said all the proper things in spring ball, and despite 14 new starters, his reputation for finding difference-makers in the transfer portal got FSU ranked 10th in the preseason AP poll. But instead of a hangover, or a slow start, his Noles have completely no-showed in 2024.

Florida State’s win percentage has fallen by 82.9 percentage points at the moment, from 0.929 to 0.100. In the history of top-division college football, there have been 14,788 teams; only three have had their win percentage fall by more than that, and two played during World War I: 1917 Colorado State (from 6-0-1 to 0-7-1), 1919 Colorado Mines (from 4-0 to 0-4-2) and 2012 Southern Miss (from 12-2 to 0-12). The Seminoles are likely to finish 2-10, beating Charleston Southern this coming weekend and then losing to rival Florida. Those results would drop them to merely the eighth-largest win percentage collapse ever, behind four more teams from 1950 or earlier.

If you prefer advanced stats, FSU has also cratered by that measure: The Seminoles finished ninth in SP+ last season but are currently 92nd. In terms of percentile ratings, they’ve fallen from 94.1% to 33.0%. Granted, there’s still a sliver of friendly preseason projections impacting the current ratings, so the Noles could fall even further over the last couple of games, but that 61.1% drop is still the 40th largest on record and the fourth largest of the 2000s behind 2018 Louisville (from 87.8% to 15.1%), 2012 Southern Miss (from 73.1% to 4.5%) and 2009 Ball State (from 75.6% to 12.5%).

Like FSU with Jordan Travis, all three of those 21st century peers lost star quarterbacks from breakthrough teams — Southern Miss lost Conference USA-winning Austin Davis, Ball State lost Nate Davis and Louisville lost Heisman winner Lamar Jackson — and both BSU (Brady Hoke) and Southern Miss (Larry Fedora) had lost their respective head coaches to bigger jobs. Louisville, meanwhile, ended the Bobby Petrino era 10 games into 2018, as his Cardinals kept getting worse and worse.

Norvell isn’t a first-year coach, and by all accounts it appears he will keep his job into 2025, even if it has required the jettisoning of assistants. I like turning to the history books to get an idea for what might happen in the future, but this one’s tricky: When a team collapses with this level of force, it’s usually at either the start or end of a coach’s tenure (or, in the case of Southern Miss’ Ellis Johnson in 2012, both).

Acknowledging both the uniqueness of the coaching situation and the severity of the fall, however, I did find 10 reasonably decent comps. Here are 10 postwar, major-conference teams (or major independents) that (a) collapsed by at least 50.0% in terms of both SP+ percentile rating and win percentage, (b) did so with a coach that was not in his first season and (c) kept that coach for the following season. How long did it take each program to rebound? Did it happen under the same coach? Let’s take a look.


1946 Oklahoma State

Head coach: Jim Lookabaugh (eighth year)

Change in record: from 9-0 to 3-7-1

Change in SP+ ranking: from seventh to 82nd

What happened: Like Mike Gundy, Lookabaugh was a former OSU player who thrived as the Cowboys’ head coach. In 1944-45, they went 17-1, winning a Cotton Bowl and a Sugar Bowl and claiming a share of the 1945 national title. But in the postwar years, his program fell back to where it was prewar. Following their collapse in 1946, they went 3-7 again in 1947 before rebounding to go 6-4 with a Delta Bowl bid — they lost 20-0 to William & Mary — in 1948. Following a 4-4-2 season in 1949, Lookabaugh retired and moved into real estate.

The Cowboys’ next good season: 1953. Jennings Whitworth led the Pokes to a 7-3 campaign and parlayed that into the Alabama job a year later.


1956 Notre Dame

Head coach: Terry Brennan (third year)

Change in record: from 8-2 to 2-8

Change in SP+ ranking: from 12th to 84th

What happened: A star halfback for Notre Dame in the postwar years, Brennan was rushed into the head-coaching role at age 25 following Frank Leahy’s health-related retirement. He steered the ship well for a while, going 17-3 in 1954-55, but things fell apart during a massive youth movement in 1956 (albeit one in which Paul Hornung still won the Heisman). The growing pains produced improvement in the coming years, and Notre Dame was talented enough to end Oklahoma’s famed 47-game winning streak with a 7-0 upset in 1957 and finish 10th in the AP poll. But for the most part, the Irish were merely solid in 1957-58, beating poor teams, mostly losing to good ones and going 13-7 overall. Brennan was fired with a 32-18 record and replaced by NFL coach Joe Kuharich, who went just 17-23.

The Fighting Irish’s next good season: 1964. Granted, 1957 was pretty good under Brennan, but the Irish were mediocre for quite a few years under Kuharich and Hugh Devore before first-year coach Ara Parseghian engineered a 9-1 charge and No. 3 AP finish in 1964. They would win the national title two years later.


1960 SMU

Head coach: Bill Meek (fourth year)

Change in record: from 5-4-1 to 0-9-1

Change in SP+ ranking: from 34th to 91st

What happened: After landing his first head-coaching job at age 30, Bill Meek was 36 when he took over at SMU in 1957, with the team less than a decade removed from back-to-back top-10 finishes. Led by Dandy Don Meredith’s passing, the Mustangs finished 18th in the AP poll in 1958, and they began 1959 ranked fourth. But they went just 5-4-1 against a brutal schedule (they were 1-4 against ranked opponents), then totally collapsed in 1960 following Meredith’s graduation.

Meek stayed for 1961 but went just 2-7-1 and moved on to front office roles with the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. SMU replaced him with Hayden Fry.

The Mustangs’ next good season: 1966. Fry’s tenure began with four straight losing seasons, but he brought the Mustangs back to the Cotton Bowl, with a No. 10 AP finish, in Year 5.


1961 Illinois

Head coach: Pete Elliott (second year)

Change in record: from 5-4 to 0-9

Change in SP+ ranking: from 36th to 103rd

What happened: An All-America quarterback at Michigan, Elliott led Cal to the Rose Bowl in 1958 before returning to the Big Ten to succeed Ray Eliot in 1960. Eliot had gone just 32-35-5 since a Rose Bowl bid in 1951, and Elliott went just 5-4 in his first season before an absolute collapse in Year 2. He was building something, though. After going just 2-7 in 1962, a talented Illini squad led by All-Americans Dick Butkus and Archie Sutton charged to 8-1-1 and won the Rose Bowl. They were above .500 in 1964 and ’65, too, but Elliott resigned in 1967 when Illinois became embroiled in a slush fund scandal.

The Illini’s next good season: 1963. The Illini beat two top-five teams (Northwestern and Michigan State) and topped Washington 17-7 in the Rose Bowl. This collapse actually had a happy ending of sorts. As long as you ignore that whole “slush fund” thing.


1985 Boston College

Head coach: Jack Bicknell (fifth year)

Change in record: from 10-2 to 4-8

Change in SP+ ranking: from 11th to 62nd

What happened: We’ve heard a lot about the “Flutie effect” through the years, where a school that enjoys sudden football success sees a burst of notoriety, higher application rates and so on. The initial effects of losing Flutie, however, weren’t great for Boston College. Following Flutie’s Heisman run and BC’s 10-win campaign and top-five finish in 1984, the Eagles quickly fell back to earth with poor Shawn Halloran behind center in 1985. After a wobbly 3-3 start, they lost five in a row and finished 4-8.

BC began 1986 in poor form again, starting just 1-3, but Halloran and the Eagles won eight straight from there, eventually beating Georgia 27-24 in the Hall of Fame Bowl.

The Eagles’ next good season: 1986. The rebound was swift. It was also short-lived. Bicknell would average just 3.5 wins over the next four seasons and, in 1991, he moved on to become head coach of the World League of American Football’s Barcelona Dragons, and in 1992-93 the Eagles surged briefly under Tom Coughlin.


1991 Louisville

Head coach: Howard Schnellenberger (seventh year)

Change in record: from 10-1-1 to 2-9

Change in SP+ ranking: from 32nd to 103rd

What happened: I’m including Louisville here even though there was nothing “major” about the Cardinals program before Schnellenberger got a hold of it. They had finished ranked only once — they went 9-1 under Lee Corso in 1972 and finished 18th as part of the Missouri Valley — but finished under .500 every year from 1979-87. After going 14-8 under Schnellenberger in 1988-89, however, they charged to 10-1-1 and walloped No. 25 Alabama 34-7 in the Fiesta Bowl. It was a miraculous building job, but with quarterback Browning Nagle off to the pros and replacement Jeff Brohm injured early in the season, the Cardinals fell apart in 1991. They would rebound to 5-6 with a healthy Brohm in 1992, then broke through the following season.

The Cardinals’ next good season: 1993. Brohm threw for 2,626 yards (a good number for the day), and the Cardinals upset No. 23 Arizona State as part of a 7-1 start. They capped a 9-3 season with an 18-7 comeback win over Michigan State in the Liberty Bowl. Schellenberger would leave for Oklahoma a year later.


1998 Washington State

Head coach: Mike Price (10th year)

Change in record: from 10-2 to 3-8

Change in SP+ ranking: from 14th to 71st

What happened: Mike Price built a cyclical power in Pullman. The Cougars would slowly grow as a roster core matured, break through with a certain level of experience and then start over again. However, following the success of quarterback Ryan Leaf & Co. in 1997 — Wazzu won 10 games, reached the Rose Bowl for just the second time and finished in the AP top 10 for the first time — it took a little while to put the pieces back together. The Cougs went just 10-24 from 1998-2000. But Price’s next awesome quarterback, Jason Gesser, led a charge starting in 2001.

The Cougars’ next good season: 2001. The Cougs started 7-0, lost only to Oregon and Washington, both ranked, and beat Purdue 33-27 in the Sun Bowl. Both Gesser and Wazzu would raise their game further the next year, winning 10 games, reaching the Rose Bowl and finishing in the AP top 10 for the second of three straight seasons. (The third season would take place without Price, who left for an ill-fated stint at Alabama.)


2007 Notre Dame

Head coach: Charlie Weis (third year)

Change in record: from 10-3 to 3-9

Change in SP+ ranking: from 26th to 87th

What happened: Congratulations to Notre Dame, the only team to show up on this list twice.

Following an impeccable 19-4 start as Irish head coach, Charlie Weis’ second season finished in disappointing fashion with blowout losses against both No. 3 USC and No. 4 LSU. Notre Dame lost eight offensive starters, including quarterback Brady Quinn (who was replaced by true freshman Jimmy Clausen), and Weis replaced defensive coordinator Rick Minter with Corwin Brown. The result: a historic collapse.

Like 2024 FSU, Notre Dame began the season 1-9, a run that included the Irish’s first loss to Navy since 1963. Notre Dame lost to three ranked opponents by a combined 96-24, and late-season wins over dire Duke and Stanford teams only redeemed things so much. They would improve in the following seasons, but only to 7-6 and 6-6, and Weis was dumped at the end of 2009.

The Fighting Irish’s next good season: 2012. Brian Kelly replaced Weis and went 8-5 in each of his first two seasons before an experienced squad, led by a strong offensive line and all-world linebacker Manti Te’o, went 12-0 in the regular season and reached the BCS championship game. It was the first of four top-10 seasons for Kelly in South Bend.


2021 Northwestern

Head coach: Pat Fitzgerald (16th year)

Change in record: from 7-2 to 3-9

Change in SP+ ranking: from 31st to 101st

What happened: Like Mike Price, Pat Fitzgerald succeeded in cycles. Between 2011 and 2019, Northwestern combined four losing records with four seasons of nine or more wins, and they likely would have won nine or more with a full season’s work in the COVID-abbreviated 2020 season too. They went 6-1 and qualified for the Big Ten championship game, where they led Ohio State late in the third quarter before succumbing 22-10. A Citrus Bowl win capped the school’s first top-10 finish in 25 years.

In 2021, however, the Wildcats entered the season with the nation’s lowest returning production. It showed. The defense went from great to decent, and the offense went from below average to horrendous. NU would go just 4-20 over the next two seasons, then Fitzgerald was fired for off-field reasons.

The Wildcats’ next good season: 2023. It didn’t turn out to be a sustainable recipe — Northwestern is right back to 4-6 this season with only a 5% chance of winning out to reach bowl eligibility, per SP+ — but under interim coach David Braun, the Wildcats went 6-2 in one-score finishes to reach 8-5 overall. That’s not as good as Fitzgerald’s best years, but it was still a seven-win improvement over the previous season.


2021 Indiana

Head coach: Tom Allen (fifth year)

Change in record: from 6-2 to 2-10

Change in SP+ ranking: from 18th to 94th

What happened: After an 8-5 campaign in 2019, their best season in 26 years, Tom Allen’s Hoosiers took another step forward in 2020, going 6-1 in the COVID-abbreviated regular season, losing only a tight game against unbeaten Ohio State and technically earning a spot in the Big Ten championship game before an emergency rule change left them out.

Michael Penix Jr. was brilliant until tearing his ACL in the sixth game, and the Hoosiers finished the season with a bowl loss against Ole Miss. Penix returned in 2021, but he was rusty and inconsistent, and he suffered another season-ending injury in early October. After a 2-2 start, Indiana lost eight straight games. Allen could never right the ship, going just 7-17 in 2022-23, his last two seasons in charge.

The Hoosiers’ next good season: 2024. A coaching change (to Curt Cignetti) and a roster flip have completely reversed IU’s fortunes. The Hoosiers are 10-0 for the first time; they are a modern turnaround story in terms of just how much you can change in a short amount of time. (The changes aren’t guaranteed to work — just ask 2024 Florida State — but there are new opportunities on the table now.)


Obviously an exercise like this is more anecdotal than scientific. Both collapses and rebounds are potentially easier, for better or worse, in an era with greater roster flexibility and potential turnover, and just because it took Hayden Fry a while to get SMU going again in the 1960s doesn’t necessarily mean much for Mike Norvell.

Still, from the old “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme” perspective, it is perhaps noteworthy that of the 10 teams above, only one rebounded immediately (1986 Boston College), but six had bounced back within three years, including six of the seven most recent examples. Only four of those six rapid rebounds happened with the same coach in charge, and each of the two examples from this decade turned around immediately with a new coach. Even Louisville, which crumbled so thoroughly to the ground in Bobby Petrino’s final season, bounced straight back to 8-5 the next season under Scott Satterfield.

Florida State probably isn’t going to be this horrendously awful for long, in other words. It was almost impossible for this to happen once — this genuinely is one of the greatest collapses this very old sport has ever seen — and it probably won’t happen again. But the odds of a full rebound under Norvell aren’t great either. He will bring new assistants and, most likely, another large transfer class to Tallahassee in 2025, but the collapse exposed a level of fragility within the program that might eventually require a head-coaching change to completely fix.

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NHL draft buzz: How Blackhawks, Isles, Predators could shake up first round

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NHL draft buzz: How Blackhawks, Isles, Predators could shake up first round

Although the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers may never stop celebrating, the NHL offseason has begun.

The past several days have included Jonathan Toews pledging to sign with the Winnipeg Jets once free agency begins, as well as a flurry of re-signings, and a trade between the Chicago Blackhawks and Seattle Kraken, with Andre Burakovsky headed to the Second City.

On Friday and Saturday of this week, the NHL draft will take place in Los Angeles, including seven rounds of prospect selections and (most likely) a handful of franchise-altering trades. Then on Tuesday, July 1, free agency officially begins.

To help make sense of it all, our reporters reached out to sources in front offices around the league for their takes on the draft, trades and the free agent class.

So ahead of this week’s flurry of action, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski deliver the latest buzz around the NHL:

Schaefer earned perspective through tragedy

Matthew Schaefer has been the projected first overall pick in this year’s draft for months, projected to land with the New York Islanders, who hold the first pick on Friday. But the Erie Otters defenseman isn’t all that concerned about where he ultimately lands.

No pressure. No stress. It’s all about enjoying the journey — a lesson Schaefer has learned the hard way.

“I’ve been through a lot,” he said recently. And that’s putting it mildly.

Schaefer lost his billet mother in late 2023. Two months later, his own mother died after a long battle with cancer. Then, during the 2025 World Junior Championship, Otters owner Jim Waters — with whom Schaefer was close — also passed away. During that same event, Schaefer broke his collarbone and missed the remainder of his season in Erie.

That would be a debilitating 12 months for anyone to endure, let alone a 17-year-old on the cusp of achieving his life-long dream of playing in the NHL. Schaefer has an infectiously upbeat attitude to it all, though. What others might view as adversity he sees as almost a superpower, and it’s helped him cope with the demands of being a highly touted prospect.

“There’s a lot worse things that can happen in life [than not being picked No. 1],” he said. “Going through injuries are super easy. I feel like when I was younger and I stubbed my toe, I probably would have thought the world was ending, but going through everything, there’s so much worse things that can happen in life. And honestly, you just gotta take the opportunities. You gotta work as hard as you can. I think just being a good person goes such a long way.”

Schaefer is quick-witted and personable, admirably earnest and entirely genuine. He’s done charity work with other kids experiencing grief-related challenges, and plans to do more volunteering with the hospital where his mother received treatment. It’s not for show, either.

Schaefer readily admits he enjoys meeting new people, and hearing their stories.

“I personally love helping people,” he said. “Respecting people, [treating them] how you’d like to be treated. Holding a door for someone, it goes such a long way. I think each and every day I just want to have a positive mindset. My mindset has changed a lot with everything. Seeing what my mom went through, having a smile on her face with cancer and everything trying to bring her down, but she wouldn’t let it bring her down. Wish I was as tough as her.”

Schaefer believes that mom will be watching when the draft takes place, and that maybe along the way she’s even suited up again in her own signature role that shaped him into the player he is today.

“My mom used to go in net and put on the equipment, and I’d shoot on her,” he recalled. “When I’m shooting pucks in the basement, she probably spiritually has the hockey equipment on, trying to save them, and I’m missing the net because she’s probably blocker saving that. There’s a lot of things I’ve learned. I’m definitely a lot stronger now.” — Shilton


Could the Islanders draft Hagens too?

James Hagens knows how badly some Islanders fans want to see the Hauppauge-born, Long Island native drafted by their team. After all, the 18-year-old Boston College center is one of their own: A kid in the stands cheering on the Islanders during playoff games at Nassau Coliseum who just happened to one day become a top NHL draft prospect.

“I still have the [rally] towel to this day,” he told me during the Stanley Cup Final. “I just remember being a little kid, screaming my lungs off. It was a small building, but it got loud.”

Hagens said he’s had people walk up to him on the golf course back home expressing hope that he’ll be an Islanders draft choice. Driving back from a workout one day, he saw a car with a “Bring Hagens Home” bumper sticker on the back.

“I just tried to duck my head and drive by. Didn’t really try to make eye contact or anything,” Hagens recalled.

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James Hagens’ NHL draft profile

Take a look at some of the best plays for Boston College center James Hagens.

He couldn’t help but get his hopes up when he watched the Islanders win the first overall pick in the lottery. There was a time when Hagens looked like he’d go first overall in the 2025 draft. The venerable Bob McKenzie of TSN had him ranked first before the season, with nine of the 10 NHL scouts he surveyed in agreement.

There were a variety of factors for why Hagens slipped a bit this season — a great but not elite freshman season at BC, continuing concerns about this 5-11-ish frame — but chief among them was the emergence of Schaefer as the Islanders’ presumptive No. 1 overall pick.

Yet here was buzz during the Stanley Cup Final that the Islanders might seek to make a draft-day splash by taking Schaefer first overall — and then trading back into the top four again to select Hagens. It’s assumed the San Jose Sharks are drafting forward Michael Misa (Saginaw Spirit) and Hagens hasn’t been linked much with the Chicago Blackhawks at No. 3. Utah has the fourth overall pick, while Nashville is drafting fifth.

What could be in play from the Islanders? Speculation surrounds 25-year-old defenseman Alexander Romanov, a restricted free agent due a sizable raise, as well as the Colorado Avalanche‘s first-round pick in 2026 that the Avs can defer to 2027. But that’s just a starting point for acquiring a top-five pick and, most importantly, a hometown offensive star.

Isles GM Mathieu Darche has talked about his charges becoming an “attacking” team. Co-owner John Collins has discussed the necessity for the franchise to make “deeper connections” with the Long Island hockey community. Hagens would seem to address both needs, either at No. 1 — or if the Islanders can hit a two-fer in the draft. — Wyshynski


Clock is ticking on Tavares in Toronto

Unless Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs undergo seriously successful couples counselling in the next week, it’s unlikely the winger will be back in blue and white this fall. That ending has been projected for months, and frankly reflects some poor asset management by the Leafs that they’re about to lose this year’s top UFA for nothing.

Is there a possibility of a sign-and-trade, or another suitor interested in acquiring Marner’s rights like Toronto GM Brad Treliving did in acquiring Chris Tanev‘s rights at last year’s draft? Sure. But again … don’t hold your breath.

Where the Leafs’ focus can and should be at this stage is on John Tavares. The latest word is that the two sides aren’t close on an extension, and Toronto can’t beat around the bush too long here. Because there are not many other viable unrestricted free agent centers available.

Sam Bennett appears determined to stay in Florida. Matt Duchene and Jonathan Toews have signed elsewhere. Beyond Tavares, the Leafs are looking at Mikael Granlund, Pius Suter or perhaps Claude Giroux.

There might not be much Toronto can recuperate from the Marner situation. Tavares is the opposite; he wants to be a Leaf and is willing to negotiate.

Dallas just inked Duchene to a four-year, $18 million extension. Yes, there’s some creative accounting in there between the base salary and signing bonuses coupled with Duchene’s continued buyout package from Nashville. However, a $4.5 million average annual value contract for Tavares isn’t looking so bad when you consider the Leafs can not lose a second-line center that just had one of his best seasons ever at age 34 and won’t have much choice on a replacement if Tavares does feel undersold and accept another team’s offer (of which there could be many).

This is a critical juncture for Treliving to handle just right, and considering all the factors at work, there’s no time like the present for Toronto to put its best foot forward and get Tavares back under contract. — Shilton


Can Panthers bring back the big three, including Marchand?

Having covered the Panthers for multiple rounds in the playoffs, I had hours of conversations about their three key unrestricted free agents: Center Sam Bennett, defenseman Aaron Ekblad and winger/Dairy Queen enthusiast Brad Marchand.

There was a common perception about them before the Panthers hoisted the Cup for a second time, but those have shifted:

1. Bennett, who won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoffs MVP, was a lock to re-sign. While scores of teams might have doubled his base salary ($5 million), Bennett and the Panthers have been confident something would get done. Then, at the Panthers’ victory celebration at E11EVEN in Miami, he quoted “The Wolf of Wall Street” while informing fans he was not leaving while a message that read “8 more years” was displayed behind him.

2. Ekblad, who was drafted first overall by the Panthers in 2014, was iffy to re-sign. He would be coveted as a mobile right-shot defenseman with two Stanley Cups to his credit. The Panthers reportedly made an offer to Ekblad was reportedly rejected last summer, and Florida then explored the trade market for him.

But the winds have shifted here. Speculation in Sunrise was that the Panthers and Ekblad, 29, could swap a high cap number for term, which can be risky with a player that has Ekblad’s injury history. Florida really likes its current defensive depth — Ekblad with Gustav Forsling, and then Seth Jones on a second pairing, where the Panthers believe he’s perfectly cast. Ekblad now expects to stay, but as he cautioned recently: “Things seem to come down to the last minute here.”

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Kevin Weekes calls Panthers’ performance a ‘master class’

Steve Levy and Kevin Weekes break down how the Panthers pulled off back-to-back Stanley Cup titles against the Oilers.

3. Marchand took less money in Boston on his last deal for a player of his accomplishments — he made only $8 million in base salary twice in 16 seasons with the Bruins. So the perception was that he would sign with whichever team offered the highest salary with the term he was seeking, rumored to be four years. The Maple Leafs were the focus here, in the ultimate “if you can’t beat’em, have him join’em” moment in NHL history. But suitors ranging from the Washington Capitals to the Utah Mammoth were rumored to be waiting on him.

However, the fit and success he found in Florida appears to have shifted things here, too. Marchand publicly asked GM Bill Zito to give him a contract — at a Dairy Queen, no less — and Zito has said multiple times he expects to be able to sign Bennett, Ekblad and Marchand at a cap hit that allows the Panthers “to bring in other good players.”

For what it’s worth, Marchand was caught on video at the famed Elbo Room in Fort Lauderdale telling a fan that he’s not leaving and then flashing four fingers. But it’s Marchand. He says a lot. — Wyshynski


Do the Blackhawks have a big surprise in store for Round 1?

Chicago is set to pick at No. 3. After Matthew Schaefer and Michael Misa are all but guaranteed to go 1-2, the Blackhawks will be the first fascinating selection of the night.

Do they go center, or wing?

When the scouting combine in Buffalo was wrapping up, it sounded like Chicago was zeroed in on either Moncton Wildcats center Caleb Desnoyers or Brampton Steelheads winger Porter Martone.

Martone’s stock has risen even further since the start of June, and while it may have been the Blackhawks’ inclination to go center, could they pass on Martone at this point? He’s 6-3 and 207 pounds, brings a physical edge, creative playmaking, a great shot and terrific hands. Martone collected 37 goals and 98 points in 57 games last season as the Steelheads’ captain, and scouts rave about his overall ability and potential to excel in the NHL.

Chicago already has one exemplary young center in Connor Bedard. While it’s tempting to add another potential standout at the position, the draw of what Martone could bring might just be too much on which to pass. — Shilton


Oilers GM baffled by goalie decision

There’s no question that the Edmonton Oilers‘ goaltending was a detriment during their Stanley Cup Final loss to the Florida Panthers.

Stuart Skinner (.861 save percentage, 3.97 goals-against average) was pulled twice and eventually benched for Calvin Pickard (.878, 2.88) in their Game 5 loss, before returning to give up three goals on 23 shots on their Game 6 elimination. Both goalies were below-replacement level in goals saved above expected over their last five playoff games. Meanwhile, Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky chugged along at 3.1 goals saved above expected in his last five games, and did what he needed to do (.919, 2.45) in the Final.

This confuses Oilers GM Stan Bowman about his goaltending, because he argues that Edmonton had the stronger goaltending in their three previous series in the Western Conference. “Darcy Kuemper, Adin Hill and Jake Oettinger, our goalies were better than them in each of those series,” he said. “I think that’s the reason we went to the [Stanley Cup] Final. And then in the Final it flipped.”

The assumption has been that goaltending would be a priority for the Oilers this offseason, especially finding an elite-level netminder that would theoretically prevent embarrassments like having to decide which struggling goalie will start Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. But Bowman said he’s still mulling over any goalie changes for next season, with both Skinner ($2.6 million AAV) and Pickard ($1 million) signed through next season before becoming unrestricted free agents.

Bowman said changes for next season “may involve the goaltending or it could not,” and that there’s a lot of analysis that has to be done in the wake of their second loss to Florida in two seasons before making that decision.

It’s hard to fathom that the Oilers would run it back with the same battery next season, but the options to upgrade are limited. They’ve been linked to John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks, who has a 10-team no-trade list and two years left on his contract at a $6.4 million AAV. New Jersey Devils veteran Jake Allen is the best option in a thin UFA market that also includes Alexandar Georgiev (San Jose), Alex Lyon (Detroit) and Anton Forsberg (Ottawa).

Bowman said that’s part of the decision for the Oilers: Who, exactly, would be an upgrade over Skinner and Pickard in the playoffs?

“It’s not like you just go down to the corner and pick up an elite goalie,” he said. “They’re not just waiting for you to join your team. So how many are there anyways in that group?”

“If you look at the [elite] guys, some of them have had some tough playoffs. So there’s no guarantee in the goaltending world. It’s the most important [position], but it’s also in some instances not why teams win,” the GM said. “So if you have a strong enough team, then there’s been teams that win the Cup without elite goaltending and there’s been teams that won because of their goalie.” — Wyshynski


Is Nashville really open to anything?

Rumblings about the Nashville Predators continue to grow. The Predators are picking at No. 5, but are not in the typical position a team would be in with that selection.

Nashville wants to compete now. And they have a piece of capital to wield in trying to land an NHL player now from a team that might be closer to that re-tooling stage and eyeing a top prospect for their pool.

If there were to be a blockbuster happening in the first round, it feels like Nashville would be involved.

Specifically, the Preds could use a viable defenseman to shore up the blue line alongside Roman Josi. And we know from recent offseasons that GM Barry Trotz is willing and able to go all-in as necessary and get creative.

If Trotz believes in Nashville’s opportunity to rebound from a rough 2024-25 with a winning year ahead then he seems likely to consider a fair deal for an NHL-level skater. — Shilton

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Diamonds in the rough: Late-round gems of the 2025 NHL draft

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Diamonds in the rough: Late-round gems of the 2025 NHL draft

There are late-round gems in every NHL draft class that go on to have impactful careers. With the increase in scouting coverage and analytics, teams do a better job of drafting those players earlier, but inevitably, a few of these late-round diamonds in the rough emerge.

Gone are the days of getting Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Lundqvist or Brett Hull in the late rounds. However, smaller players who possess skill seem to be drafted much later. The reigning Calder Trophy winner Lane Hutson is hardly a late-round pick — he went 62nd overall in 2022 — but he should’ve been selected a lot earlier.

Some recent late-round gems include Troy Terry (No. 148 in 2015), Andrew Mangiapane (No. 166, 2015), Jesper Bratt (No. 162, 2016), Brandon Hagel (No. 159, 2016) and Mark Stone (No. 178, 2010). There were concerns about all of them in the draft process, whether it was size, skating or questions about the translatability of their game to the NHL. But each has far exceeded their draft expectations and gone on to represent their country on the international stage. Your draft slot does not make or break you. The earlier picks will get more chances while the later picks have to earn their looks, but there is a pathway to success.

The common denominator in a late-round pick’s success is that they are elite in at least one category; or as one NHL executive put it, “they possess a separating skill that differentiates them from others.”

This year, there are a few players who may end up as the diamonds in the rough. Generally speaking, a player drafted after the third round has a less than 3% chance of playing 200 games in the NHL, which means it is likely that only four or five players drafted after pick No. 96 will make it. There is a less than 1.5% chance of that player becoming an impact player, goaltenders not included. The darts at the board are worth throwing, but a few players in this class have separating skills that may give them a better chance.


Cameron Schmidt, RW, Vancouver Giants (WHL)

While Schmidt is rated much higher in public rankings — and remained a first-rounder in those rankings for the majority of the season — NHL teams with which I spoke do not view him in the same light. Many scouts believe Schmidt will be selected between the third and fifth rounds because he’s much smaller than the average NHL player at 5-foot-7.

Still, Schmidt’s ceiling as a second-line scoring winger in the vein of Alex Debrincat should excite teams. It is understandable that teams would be hesitant to select a player of his stature with an early pick because of the rarity of success for player shorter than 5-9. Schmidt is arguably the fastest player in the draft, with an elite shot. He has more than one “separating skill” that scouts look for, with one opining that if he were 6-1, he may be in the conversation for being picked in the 10-15 range.

Netting 40 goals in 61 games makers him one of the best goal scorers available in the draft. He can score multiple ways; off the rush in stride, on one-timers, by net-front finishing and a smooth but powerful catch and release. There is a high likelihood that Schmidt leads the CHL in goals over the next two seasons with his separating speed and well-rounded finishing ability.

Debrincat is 5-8, and if Schmidt grows to that height or even 5-9, there’s a real chance he becomes a reliable goal-scorer at the NHL level. Instead of drafting for physicality and size, taking a chance that someone grows who already possesses elite talent could be very rewarding for a team.


Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln Stars (USHL)

A defenseman who is nearly 6-7 with punishing physical traits and the potential to become a shutdown defender will be very attractive to teams. Rombach lacks a lot of the offensive skill that teams like to see in their top-end defenseman, but there is a real path to becoming a No. 4/5 defender in the NHL.

Defensively, he possesses one of the most complete skill sets in the draft, which will only improve as he refines those skills. He has impressive puck-retrieval ability, scanning for threats and allowing him to pre-emptively escape pressure situations. He employs head fakes to shake forecheckers, and makes a simple and efficient pass when the lane opens.

When defending, he uses his frame to disrupt plays on the rush, kill plays on the wall and makes it difficult for teams to generate off the cycle. He isn’t overly physical, and while that is easily developable at his size, scouts like that he doesn’t get caught out of position trying to make a big hit. When he closes gaps on players all over the ice, he leads with a strong stick and smothers them, forcing turnovers or dump-ins.

If his skating and physicality improve, Rombach has the tool kit to be an effective shutdown defender who can kill penalties and play secondary matchups.


David Bedkowski, D, Oshawa Generals (OHL)

The old-school hockey types love Bedkowski because he loves physicality. He is a throwback in the sense that he lives for the violence. A menacing defenseman at nearly 6-5 and 215 pounds, Bedkowski is the most punishing defender in the draft class. While that doesn’t always equate to NHL success, the Florida Panthers‘ blueprint will surely have executives thinking about Bedkowski’s ability to play highly effective transition defense while inflicting significant pain on opponents with his physical play.

He is one of the best zone-entry defenders in the draft class, and if he can pick his spots a little better in terms of stepping up to make contact, there is a path to becoming an effective bottom-pair defender.

His ceiling isn’t high in terms of becoming a No. 4/5 guy, but teams need depth and brute force to win in the playoffs, and Bedkowski may develop into a defenseman who can reliably provide that.


Viktor Klingsell, LW, Skelleftea AIK (J20)

Another candidate to be a steal in the later rounds is world under-18 championships standout Klingsell. He didn’t produce at the level Jesper Bratt did in Sweden, but he outperformed Bratt when playing against his peers. Given the similarity in height, the high-end playmaking and vision, it isn’t surprising to see some believe Klingsell could be a “Bratt lite” in the NHL. He lacks physicality — which isn’t particularly surprising given his stature — but his instincts and offensive tool kit are amongst the best available among European skaters.

The main concern is his pace. Klingsell has a boom-or-bust type of profile. If he hits, he’ll be a second-line offensive facilitator who notches 50-plus assists every year. If he doesn’t, he’s likely to become a very good SHL player. That is the type of swing you take in the later rounds, especially when speed is the concern. But it is much easier to develop skating and speed than it is to find a player with the natural offensive instincts and playmaking capabilities that Klingsell possesses.


Filip Ekberg, LW, Ottawa 67’s (OHL)

Another Swede with a chance to make a team very happy is dual-threat forward Ekberg. The first half of the season was plagued by illness and a limited role. As the calendar flipped, Ekberg’s play took off, culminating in a standout performance at the U18s, where he tallied 18 points in seven games and earned himself an invite to Sweden’s World Junior summer team.

There is real reason to believe Ekberg is on the cusp of a major scoring breakout in the OHL that would vault his projection to a middle-six scorer at the NHL level.

Ekberg is a well-rounded forward anticipates and reads the play, facilitates offense and owns an excellent catch and release. He lacks dynamism that you’d like to see, but showed legitimate flashes of ability when healthy at the U18s. If he can improve his skating, he has all the hallmarks of a smaller player who can succeed in the NHL, in a secondary scoring and power-play role.


Aidan Lane, RW, Saint Andrew’s College/Brampton Steelheads (OHL)

If not for a standout performance in the OHL at the end of the season, Lane’s NHL projection would not exist. The CHL/NCAA rule change allowed the Saint Andrew’s College graduate to play the final 13 games in Brampton, where he tallied a point per game.

It is very difficult to project prep school players, as there is limited sample size. However, the high-motor winger looked every bit the part in a top-six role for Brampton. He has a chance to become a power winger in the bottom six at the NHL level, with his strength, physicality and his ability to generate offense.

He was smooth in transition, was able to draw defenders to him and make positive value plays. He was also able to use his physical package to overpower seasoned OHL players. Lane has the motor, physical tools and displayed promising offensive tools that could make him a high value pick beyond the fourth round. His speed and explosiveness will need to improve if he is to effectively use his tools to forecheck and create offence in a secondary role at the NHL level.

Given his chosen path to play in the NCAA at Harvard, he will have plenty of time to develop against the best amateur competition.


L.J. Mooney, RW, USNTDP (USHL)

Another diminutive winger, Mooney is one of my personal favorites in the draft class. He’s a dynamic skater and gets fans out of their seats with his puck handling skill. At 5-7, possessing multiple separating skills should be enough for a team to take a chance on him in the middle rounds.

He’s a non-stop player who is constantly drawing the viewer’s eye. His blistering speed is immediately noticeable, especially when combined with fantastic puck skill. There is real potential for him to become a transition nightmare for defenders. For that to happen, Mooney will need to improve his ability to facilitate offense and read the play. He needs to utilize his elite skating and puck skill to attack the middle of the ice to create high-danger scoring chances.

Given his size and questions about playmaking ability, he’s close to a boom-or-bust player. However, many players with that skill level do not possess the motor and inner drive to compete. Mooney does not leave any doubts about his will to compete given his fearless play, consistent pace, and willingness to play both sides of the puck.

If a team has multiple second- or third-round picks and lacks a dynamic skater, as well as someone who could be a legitimate contributor — the Philadelphia Flyers, Montreal Canadiens and Detroit Red Wings are in this boat — Mooney is a worth a shot.

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Panthers bask in ‘summer of love’ at Cup parade

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Panthers bask in 'summer of love' at Cup parade

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Champagne was swilled and spilled, cigars were smoked and the Stanley Cup was hoisted a few more times, all with about 400,000 people watching.

The Florida Panthers are getting pretty good at these parades.

The back-to-back Stanley Cup champions had their championship parade and rally on Fort Lauderdale Beach on Sunday, the same setup as last year — except this time, bright sunshine greeted the champs as opposed to downpours and lightning a year ago.

“It’s a little better day today than it was last year, but still, this is amazing,” Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov said. “What a day we’re having with you guys.”

Panthers coach Paul Maurice declared this “the summer of love” for fans of the team, doing so while wearing a shirt that featured his beloved cats Poppy and Penny — a shirt made by his daughter. He wore a similar shirt at last year’s parade, also made by his daughter.

There were cries of “Thank you, Boston” when Brad Marchand — who came to Florida in a trade with the rival Bruins — was introduced. Marchand, a free agent, again indicated that he wants to be back with the Panthers, who won this season’s Cup by topping the Edmonton Oilers in six games.

“I’m so happy that I don’t have to play against these guys anymore,” Marchand said, pointing to his Florida teammates.

Panthers forward Matthew Tkachuk drew loud roars when he told the crowd that he “would like to apologize to absolutely … nobody because a double champ does whatever … he wants,” copying a line used by Conor McGregor when he became a double UFC champion.

“I could get used to this,” Tkachuk said as he looked out at the crowd — some of whom were in the water, with most others packed hundreds of yards deep down the sand. Tkachuk then thanked team owner Vincent Viola and general manager and hockey operations president Bill Zito for trading for him three years ago, saying it changed his life.

Defenseman Aaron Ekblad, just as he did last year, took a shot at golfer Brooks Koepka who famously went to a Panthers game once to heckle the veteran defenseman.

Forward Sam Reinhart, who scored four goals in the clinching win over Edmonton, missed last year’s parade because a close friend was getting married. He didn’t miss Sunday.

“The only thing I’ve heard all day is how this is the best parade that’s ever been had in South Florida,” Reinhart said. “Thank God I missed last year and not this year.”

Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky thanked the crowd and said he hoped there was another parade next year. And Sam Bennett, the Conn Smythe Trophy winner, heard the crowd chanting their hopes of him getting a new contract with the Panthers. So, he ended his speech with the same request.

“Eight more years, please,” Bennett said.

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