CFP Anger Index: Bama beats Mercer and gets to jump Miami?
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
The committee has revealed its third set of rankings this season, and aside from BYU tumbling after a loss and Tennessee falling just outside the current playoff field, not much has changed.
But that doesn’t mean there’s not a reason to be outraged. Indeed, it means the committee had a whole week to fix the mistakes it had already made, and it chose not to!
So, who should be most angry this week? Grab a pillow to scream into and a stress ball to clutch. We’ve got a lot to get off our chests.
A fact the committee made clear this week: Beating Mercer by 45 points is better than sitting at home on the couch.
So it is that Alabama, which was ranked behind Miami last week, beat up on a hapless FCS opponent and jumped Miami during the Canes’ open date.
Was there a message in this?
Surely, the message could be that taking the week off isn’t something to be rewarded, but we’re betting that’s not a message the committee wants to send while coaches are arguing about the value of playing in a conference title game.
Is the message that blowing out a team from the Southern Conference is really impressive? All due respect to UMass-Lowell, but we doubt it.
No, the message seems to be that the ACC needs to understand its place in the pecking order, and the line starts behind Alabama. Funny, because we thought the ACC already got that message last year, when Florida State was left out.
Alas, Miami went from No. 4 in the first rankings all the way to No. 8 now, thanks to a one-possession loss to a solid (and underrated) Georgia Tech team. But is that fair?
Miami has four wins over SP+ top-40 teams this season — the same number as Alabama and twice as many as Notre Dame.
Miami has a better loss than either of the two teams directly in front of it: Georgia Tech is No. 55 by SP+. Vanderbilt (one of two losses for Alabama, remember) is No. 61. Northern Illinois, which beat Notre Dame in South Bend, is No. 84.
Miami’s problem, of course, is it lacks a signature win. Notre Dame has Texas A&M. Alabama has Georgia. Miami has … Florida ?
So perhaps the Canes shouldn’t be quite as mad at the committee here as they should be furious with Louisville. The Cardinals were the lynchpin victory for both Miami and SMU (and helped Notre Dame, too), but they bungled their way to a loss to Stanford that will be studied by future generations as a model of ineptitude.
That the committee has woefully undervalued SMU all season, has shoved Miami behind the two-loss Tide, and thinks Clemson is worse than Colorado is the real message here though. The ACC is a one-bid league. The committee is spelling it out loud and clear.
2. Everyone not named Texas in the SEC
Let’s state something at the top: Texas is probably quite good. It is, of course, not the Longhorns’ fault they joined the SEC and still drew a Big 12-caliber schedule. But facts are facts, and in a conference with six eight-win teams and four more already bowl eligible, Texas has played exactly two Power 4 opponents with a winning record this season. Those games resulted in a three-point win over Vanderbilt and a shellacking by Georgia.
But Texas has one loss, and the rest of the SEC competition has two or three. Is that all that should matter?
Will be interesting to see the SEC pecking order, and it’s hard to fault Texas for the schedule it was handed… but 1 team is not like the others here. pic.twitter.com/K6yISrTFN5
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 19, 2024
Ultimately, winning games is the most important thing, and the committee seems to recognize that with Indiana at No. 5, despite a schedule that might well have included a home game against Bishop Sycamore.
But is it all that matters? If Texas played Georgia’s schedule, would it still have a better record? Their head-to-head meeting would suggest otherwise.
Again, it’s hardly Texas’ fault the SEC rolled out the red carpet in Year 1. But it is up to Texas to impress when the spotlight is on, and since the blowout win against Michigan — a team vastly overrated at the time — the marquee moments have been mostly meh, right up to last week’s mediocrity against Arkansas.
Ultimately, an incredibly good SEC team — Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, South Carolina or Alabama — is going to end up having played a markedly tougher schedule, proved they can hang with the best of the best, and either go on the road for a arduous opening-round matchup or be left out altogether.
(Seriously, how is Georgia the 10th-best team in the country? There’s no logical argument.)
But Texas? Even with a loss to A&M, it’s hard to see the Horns falling from No. 3 to a place outside the top 11.
How bad was the Kansas loss?
There’s a good case to be made that the Jayhawks are an incredibly undervalued opponent right now. They opened the season ranked in the top 25, they’re just rounding into shape now, and they’ve been incredibly unlucky, going 1-5 in one-possession games. SP+ ranks Kansas as a better loss than Vandy or Georgia Tech. And BYU was still probably the better team in that game, but a special teams miscue cost the Cougars a win.
So what? BYU probably should’ve lost to SMU or Oklahoma State or Utah, and karma is a real jerk.
Still, let’s compare some résumés here.
Team A: 9-1, No. 13 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 12, loss to SP+ No. 84, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team B: 9-1, No. 15 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 46, loss to SP+ No. 5, 0 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team C: 9-1, No. 9 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 22, loss to SP+ No. 55, 2 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
Team D: 9-1, No. 8 strength of record, best win vs. SP+ No. 13, loss to SP+ No. 42, 3 wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams
They’re all in roughly the same demographic, sure, but if you’re splitting hairs, it’s hard not to split them in Team D’s direction, right?
Well, of course, Team D is BYU. And, of course, Team A (Notre Dame), B (Boise State) and C (Miami) are all ranked higher.
Way back when the playoff began and the committee was launched, the idea was not to adjust the rankings entirely off the previous week — sending teams that lose tumbling and teams that win inching up as attrition occurs above them — but to view each team’s résumé anew each week. But this committee is acting every bit like the AP voters of old — dropping Miami and Georgia and Tennessee and, particularly, BYU, because of recency bias rather than the sum total of the results. Heck, BYU is now behind SMU — a team with the same record the Cougars beat head to head!
And the real issue here? With BYU, Colorado and Arizona State all now ranked behind Boise State, the odds of the Big 12 missing an opening-round bye are looking pretty strong.
Maybe Coach Prime should use some of his considerable air time to mention that.
Speaking of Coach Prime, here we are again with the clearly superior two-loss Big 12 team ranked five spots behind Colorado.
Same record. Arizona State’s worst loss was by 10 without its starting quarterback. Colorado was blown out by Nebraska. ASU’s best win is against SP+ No. 18; Colorado’s is No. 49.
And, if we’re being honest, Kenny Dillingham’s postgame rants this season have been more entertaining than Deion’s, too.
1:07
ASU coach labels kicking game ‘atrocious,’ confirms tryouts for Monday
ASU coach Kenny Dillingham labels his team’s kicking game “atrocious” and says it will be hosting open tryouts on Monday.
This is a mistake by the committee, plain and simple.
5. The Power 4
We won’t get to say this very often, but the power players are getting screwed.
OK, not really. The SEC and Big Ten will be fine, and even if they’re not, they can cry themselves to sleep on giant piles of money.
But the fact remains that Boise State is primed for a first-round bye, and this week’s top 25 includes four teams from outside the traditional power conferences: Boise State, Army, Tulane and UNLV.
That’s the most during any one week since the final poll of the 2021 season that featured five, but among those were Houston, Cincinnati and BYU — all power conference teams now. Only twice before have four teams not currently in a power conference league (or the Pac-12) been ranked concurrently — in the wild COVID year of 2020, and for a single week in 2019 with Boise State, App State, Memphis and Navy.
Somewhere, Greg Sankey is diabolically petting a cat in an oversized chair and plotting revenge.
Also Angry: Duke, Pitt, Kansas State, Syracuse, James Madison and Washington State (all 7-3 or better, unranked and with more wins vs. bowl-eligible Power 4 teams than Illinois), SMU (9-1, No. 13), Georgia (8-2, No. 10. Seriously, who thinks there are nine better teams?)
It’s 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby day in Atlanta!
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replaced Ronald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
MLB Home Run Derby field
Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (38 home runs in 2025)
James Wood, Washington Nationals (24)
Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays (23)
Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins (21)
Brent Rooker, Athletics (20)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (17)
Jazz Chisholm Jr., New York Yankees (17)
Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates (16)
Live updates
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
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