Connect with us

Published

on

Inflation jumped to 2.3% in October – a six-month high.

A rise in household energy bills contributed to the higher-than-expected reading.

Economists had forecast a figure to 2.2% after a three-year low of 1.7% in September.

But how does all of this affect the cost of groceries, clothing and leisure activities? Use our calculator to find out.

Which prices are increasing fastest?

Unlike previous months, the item with the largest price increase was a non-food product: hair gel. Its price rose from £3.18 to £4.07, a jump of nearly 30% in just 12 months.

Olive oil also rose by close to 30%, with prices for 500ml to one litre rising from £7.16 to £9.16.

Experts have put that price rise down primarily to poor olive yields due to last year’s heatwaves in southern Europe.

However, they expect a significantly better harvest in the 2024-25 season, thanks to significant rainfall in Spain. The harvest could be double the size of last year’s, which may lead to lower prices in the coming months.

Food and drink products are responsible for eight of the 10 biggest increases since last year.

Top five price rises:

• Hair gel (150 to 200ml): up 28%, £3.18 to £4.07
• Olive oil (500ml to one litre): up 28%, £7.16 to £9.16
• Carrots (per kg): up 28%, 65p to 83p
• Iceberg lettuce (each): up 23%, 79p to 97p
• White potatoes (per kg): up 19%, 75p to 89p

Overall, 47 of the 156 types of food and drink tracked by the ONS have actually become cheaper since last year.

There’s good news for fans of a prawn cocktail: frozen prawns and mayonnaise are among the top 10 foods with the largest price decreases.

Overall, 147 out of the 444 products in our database are cheaper than they were 12 months ago.

Top food price decreases:

• Pulses (390g to 420g): down 11%, 76p to 68p
• Frozen prawns (per kg): down 9%, £19.04 to £17.42
• Mayonnaise (390g to 500g/420ml to 540ml): down 7%, £2.20 to £2.04
• Pre-prepared mashed potatoes (400g to 650g): down 7%, £1.12 to £1.04
• Canned tomatoes (390g to 400g): down 7%, 71p to 66p

Of non-supermarket items, kerosene has been the biggest price faller – by a quarter.

What is the effect of long-term inflation?

The price changes described above compare the cost of items to where they were a year ago.

However, inflation has now been at high levels for an extended period of time.

The war in Ukraine, COVID, Brexit, and other supply chain pressures have all contributed to spiralling costs in recent years.

Inflation reached a 40-year high of 11.1% in October 2022.

Follow Sky News on WhatsApp
Follow Sky News on WhatsApp

Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News

Tap here

While the headline inflation figure has come down markedly, any amount of inflation means that prices are still rising, and building on already inflated costs.

We’ve compared the costs of shopping items with what they were three years ago to see what the cumulative impact of inflation has been.

The biggest price rise for groceries over that time has been for olive oil (500ml to one litre), which has increased nearly two-and-a-half times (146%), from £3.72 to £9.16 in the past three years.

Iceberg lettuce is up by four-fifths, with one costing 97p now compared with 54p in October 2021.

Use our calculator to see how much prices in your shopping basket have risen in total since three years ago.

Who is worst affected?

Richard Lim, chief executive of Retail Economics, says: “It’s the least affluent households that are going to see much higher rates of inflation as they spend more of their income on food and energy.”

We’ll continue to update our spending calculator over the coming months so you can see how you’ll be affected.

Follow the Daily podcast on Apple Podcasts,  Google Podcasts,  Spotify, Speaker


Methodology

The ONS collects these prices by visiting thousands of shops across the country and noting down the prices of specific items. There are upwards of 100,000 prices published every month, from more than 600 products.

The items that form the “official shopping basket” change each year to reflect how the purchasing habits of the population have changed. For example in March 2021, after a year of the pandemic, hand gel, loungewear bottoms and dumbbells were added, while canteen-bought sandwiches were among the items removed.

Where there aren’t the exact equivalent items available at a survey shop, ONS officials pick the best alternative and note that they’ve done this so it’s weighted correctly when the averages are worked out.

Shops are weighted as well, so the price in a major chain supermarket will have a greater impact on the average than an independent corner shop.

We will be updating these figures each month while the cost of living crisis continues.

During the pandemic, more of the survey was carried out over the phone and work is ongoing to digitise the system to be able to take in more price points by getting data from supermarket receipts, rather than making personal visits.


Data journalists: Daniel Dunford, Amy Borrett, Ben van der Merwe, Joely Santa Cruz and Saywah Mahmood
Interactive: Ganesh Rao
Design: Phoebe Rowe, Brian Gillingham


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Continue Reading

Business

Christmas food price shock looms, chancellor warned

Published

on

By

Christmas food price shock looms, chancellor warned

Food inflation will rise to 6% by the end of the year – posing a “significant challenge” to household budgets in the run-up to Christmas, industry leaders have predicted.

The British Retail Consortium is warning that the chancellor risks “fanning the flames of inflation” if she hikes taxes in the coming budget.

Despite intense price competition between supermarket chains, the BRC has sounded the alarm over the pace of grocery price hikes.

As of this month, food inflation has risen 4% year on year – its highest level since February 2024.

The BRC said this increase is linked to global factors, such as high demand and crop struggles.

Beef, chicken and tea prices are among those that have risen the most this year – but some of the blame is being laid squarely at the chancellor’s door too.

The BRC said it was inevitable that a £7bn burden, through changes to employers’ national insurance contributions and minimum pay rules after last October’s budget, had been partly passed on to customers in the form of higher prices.

More from Money

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Will we see tax rises in next budget?

It published the results of a survey of retail industry finance chiefs to illustrate its point – that nerves about what Ms Reeves’s second budget could bring were not helping companies invest in either new employment or prices.

Business was promised it would be spared additional pain after it was put on the hook for the bulk of the chancellor’s tax-raising measures last year.

However, speculation is now rife over who will feel the pain this autumn as she juggles a deterioration in the public finances.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Options for wealth tax

A widening black hole is estimated at around £20bn.

The cost of servicing government debt has risen since the last budget, while U-turns on welfare reforms and winter fuel payment cuts have made her job even harder – making further tax-raising measures inevitable.

The survey of chief financial officers for the BRC showed the biggest current fear ahead was for the “tax and regulatory burden”.

Two-thirds of the CFOs predicted further price rises in the coming year, at a time when the headline rate inflation already remains stuck way above the Bank of England’s target of 2%.

It currently stands at 3.6%.

Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said: “Retail was squarely in the firing line of the last budget, with the industry hit by £7bn in new costs and taxes.

“Retailers have done everything they can to shield their customers from higher costs, but given their slim margins and the rising cost of employing staff, price rises were inevitable.

“The consequences are now being felt by households as many struggle to cope with the rising cost of their weekly shop.

“It is up to the chancellor to decide whether to fan the flames of inflation, or to support the everyday economy by backing the high street and the local jobs they provide.”

She concluded: “Retail accounts for 5% of the economy yet currently pays 7.4% of business taxes and a whopping 21% of all business rates.

“It is vital the upcoming reforms offer a meaningful reduction in retailers’ rates bill, and ensures no store pays more as a result of the changes.”

The Treasury has been approached for comment.

Continue Reading

Business

US Federal Reserve defies calls from Donald Trump to cut interest rate

Published

on

By

US Federal Reserve defies calls from Donald Trump to cut interest rate

The Federal Reserve has defied calls from US President Donald Trump for a cut to the interest rate by leaving it unchanged.

The decision means it has an effective rate of 4.3%, where it has remained after the central bank, known as the Fed, reduced it three times last year.

“We’re keeping the rates high, and it’s hurting people from buying houses,” Mr Trump told reporters. “All because of the Fed.”

Money latest: Three major broadband firms hike prices

Mr Trump has repeatedly been asked whether he would fire Fed chair Jerome Powell if he failed to heed his demand to cut the rate.

In June, the US president labelled Mr Powell a “stupid person” after the Fed decided not to change rates. Then less than two weeks later, in a further attack, he said the Fed’s chair should “ashamed” and would “love” him to resign.

The US president has spent months verbally attacking Mr Powell.

More from US

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Fed chair has ‘done a bad job’, says Trump

There were clear tensions between the pair last Thursday as they toured the Federal Reserve in Washington DC, which is undergoing renovations.

When taking questions, Mr Trump said: “I’d love him to lower interest rates,” then laughed and slapped Powell’s arm.

Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell
Image:
There were clear tensions between the US President and Mr Powell during last week’s visit to the Federal Reserve. Pic: Reuters

The US president also challenged him, in front of reporters, about an alleged overspend on the renovations and produced paperwork to prove his point. Mr Powell shook his head as Trump made the claim.

When Mr Trump was asked what he would do as a real estate mogul if this happened to one of his projects, he said he’d fire his project manager – seemingly in reference to Mr Powell.

Donald Trump challenges Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell about the cost of renovations
Image:
Donald Trump challenged Mr Powell in front of reporters. Pic: Reuters

Unlike the UK, the US interest rate is a range to guide lenders rather than a single percentage.

The Fed has expressed concern about the impact of Mr Trump’s signature economic policy of implementing new tariffs, taxes on imports to the US.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know

On Wednesday, the president said he was still negotiating with India on trade after announcing the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from the country from Friday.

Mr Trump also signed an executive order on Wednesday implementing an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff amount to 50%, excluding certain products, including oil and precious metals.

Follow The World
Follow The World

Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday

Tap to follow

Read more from Sky News:
Visa blamed for payment errors
Care provider nears collapse
Apollo set to buy £7bn stake in MFG

The committee which sets rates voted 9 to 2 to keep the benchmark rate steady, the two dissenters were appointees of President Trump who believe monetary policy is too tight.

In a policy statement to explain their decision, the Federal Reserve said that “uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated” but growth “moderated in the first half of the year,” possibly bolstering the case to lower rates at a future meeting.

Nathan Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, described the rate decision as a “kind of a nothing burger” and it was “widely expected”.

Tony Welch, chief investment officer at SignatureFD, agreed that it was “broadly as expected”. He added: “That explains why you’re not seeing a lot of movement in the market right now because there’s nothing that’s surprising.”

Continue Reading

Business

Apollo charges in for stake in £7bn petrol retailer Motor Fuel Group

Published

on

By

Apollo charges in for stake in £7bn petrol retailer Motor Fuel Group

The investment giant Apollo Global Management is close to snapping up a stake in Motor Fuel Group (MFG), one of Britain’s biggest petrol forecourt empires, in a deal valuing it about £7bn.

Sky News has learnt that Apollo could announce as soon as Thursday that it has agreed to buy a large minority stake in MFG from Clayton Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), its current majority-owner.

The transaction will come after several months of talks involving CD&R and a range of prospective investors in a company which is rapidly expanding its presence in the electric vehicle charging infrastructure arena.

Money latest: Three major broadband providers confirm price hikes

Banking sources said there had been a “large appetite” to invest in the next phase of MFG’s growth, with CD&R having built the company from a mid-sized industry player over the course of more than a decade.

Lazard and Royal Bank of Canada are understood to be advising on the deal.

A stake of roughly 25-30% in MFG has been expected to change hands during the process, with Apollo’s investment said to be broadly in that range.

MFG is the largest independent forecourt operator in the UK, having grown from 360 sites at the point of CD&R’s acquisition of the company.

It trades under a number of brands, including Esso and Shell.

CD&R, which also owns the supermarket chain Morrisons, united MFG’s petrol forecourt businesses with that of the grocer in a £2.5bn transaction, which completed nearly 18 months ago.

MFG now comprises roughly 1,200 sites across Britain, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) of about £700m anticipated in this financial year.

It is now focused on its role in the energy transition, with hundreds of electric vehicle charging points installed across its network, and growing its high-margin foodservice offering.

MFG has outlined plans to invest £400m in EV charging, and is now the second-largest ultra-rapid player in the UK – which delivers 100 miles of range in ten minutes – with close to 1,000 chargers.

It aims to grow that figure to 3,000 by 2030.

CD&R, which declined to comment on Wednesday afternoon, will retain a controlling stake in MFG after any stake sale, while Morrisons also holds a 20% interest in the company.

Read more from Sky News:
Visa blamed for payment errors
Care provider nears collapse
Gary Neville attacks NI rise

Bankers expect that the minority deal with Apollo will be followed a couple of years later with an initial public offering on the London stock market.

CD&R invested in MFG in 2015, making its investment a long-term one by the standards of most private equity holding periods.

The sale of a large minority stake at a £7bn enterprise valuation will crystallise a positive return for the US-based buyout firm.

CD&R and its investors have already been paid hundreds of millions of pounds in dividends from MFG, having seen its earnings grow 14-fold since the original purchase.

Morrisons’ rival, Asda, has undertaken a similar transaction with its petrol forecourts, with EG Group acquiring the Leeds-based grocer’s forecourt network.

EG Group, which along with Asda is controlled by private equity firm TDR Capital, is now being prepared for a listing in the US.

Apollo declined to comment.

Continue Reading

Trending