A journey toward forgiveness: Davin Vann has finally found himself years after his sister’s death
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
EDITOR’S NOTE: This story includes discussions of suicidal ideation.
THERE ARE FORCES at work in the universe that, for most of his life, Davin Vann believed were malevolent. This is what occupied the thoughts of NC State‘s star defensive lineman when he slid into the driver’s seat of his car on Feb. 4, 2024, intent on surrendering to his fate.
Vann has always liked to drive at night. Football had long been an outlet for his anger and isolation, but when he finished practice and film study, a drive calmed him and allowed him to be alone with his thoughts. He’d crank some country music, pull his Mustang onto the highway, watch the road unspool past Raleigh, Apex and Cary — the North Carolina towns where he grew up — and think of all the things that kept him here. He’d think of Kayla.
He was 11 when he watched his 13-year-old sister drown in a neighborhood pool, and for much of the past decade, he had fixated on how it was possible that she was gone while he had been spared.
“For a long time, it felt like God took the wrong kid,” he said. “It felt wrong for me to have the ability to live life and be happy when such a beautiful person was taken.”
Some nights he asked for forgiveness, for some penance he could pay that would ease the guilt that overwhelmed him. Some nights he’d ask for solace, an explanation for how his coaches and teammates at NC State could laud him as a leader while he still felt utterly broken.
On this night, however, he asked for nothing.
“I was just tired of being tired,” he said.
Vann wasn’t planning to die, exactly. That would imply some agency in his life, a feeling he’d long abandoned. Instead, he figured he’d just ease his car onto I-40, inch the accelerator to the floor, then let go.
“Just f— the brakes, see how fast I can go,” Vann said. “I was thinking that if somebody hit me, I wouldn’t care.”
He slumped into his seat, shoved his key into the ignition and twisted.
Nothing.
He twisted again and again, screaming into the ether with righteous indignation, but the engine stayed silent.
For nearly a half-hour, he sat in his car sobbing, begging for mercy as music blared and his windows fogged over. Finally, Vann relented. He went inside his house, still crying, and crawled into bed. When he awoke the next morning, he looked at his phone and found a text from his head coach, Dave Doeren, who’d been on something of a spiritual journey of his own.
“Got something I want to share with you,” the message read. “Can you come see me tomorrow?”
Looking back, Vann said, it’s like something out of a movie — a story he wouldn’t believe if he hadn’t lived it. Vann is the Wolfpack’s senior leader, a fan favorite with 5.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss, but as he gets set to take the field Thursday night against Georgia Tech (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN), he’s not doing it alone. That meeting with Doeren would set him on a path toward forgiveness, clarity and family.
There are forces at work in the universe, but they’re not like Vann imagined them.
“I see that night as such a gift,” Vann said. “It was God or the universe or Allah or whatever you want to call it telling me I couldn’t go yet.”
Or maybe, he thinks now, it was Kayla.
DAVIN VANN WAS born Feb. 8, 2002, the fourth of nine children. Kayla, Davin and Rylan, each about two years apart, were the closest. Davin called them “the trio.”
Kayla loved basketball, baking and church. She was bubbly and outgoing. She taught Rylan to cook on her kitchen set. She’d let Davin braid her hair, even though he wasn’t very good at it. They all played sports — an escape from the crowded living room and an avenue for some sense of normalcy after Kayla’s death. They were each members of the swim team, and they spent countless summer afternoons at the Scottish Hills Recreation Club, the neighborhood pool just a quarter-mile walk down a greenway behind their house in Cary, North Carolina.
That’s where they planned to spend the evening of June 8, 2013. Usually, their mother, Joy Hall, or their grandparents, Dave and Joan, would accompany them, but Joy was busy with work, and the grandparents were babysitting the younger kids. Dave offered to drive the trio, dropping them off at the front entrance a little after 5 p.m.
The call to 911 came at 6:36 p.m. A child had been pulled from the water. She was unresponsive. An ambulance arrived four minutes later.
It was an 11-year old Davin who called his mother, who was in Raleigh for work.
“Mom,” he said, “Kayla’s hurt.”
If she had it to do over, Joy wishes she’d understood the weight Davin would carry in the years to come. Kayla was older, but Davin viewed himself as her and Rylan’s protector. Maybe Joy had, too.
Joy met Davin’s father when she was 16. The relationship was fraught from the outset. He was addicted to drugs, Joy said. He’d disappear for weeks. He spent time in prison. He fought with Joy routinely, and the arguments often turned violent.
“It was volatile,” Joy said. “It was scary sometimes. And heartbreaking.”
Joy had her oldest daughter, Brittany, when she was 17. Deanna, Kayla, Davin and Rylan followed over the next 10 years. Rylan was just 6 weeks old, Joy said, when she came home from an errand one afternoon to find the kids’ father smoking crack in the living room, the baby asleep on the couch next to him. She told him to leave. He beat her, and he took her car, and, after a handful of visits, he eventually disappeared from their lives.
Things weren’t easy after that, but they were better. Joy met Donald Haley, and they had four more kids together — Lola, Duckie, Rose and Vinnie. Donald had grown up in the foster care system, so he was eager to adopt the older kids, too. Family, for him, didn’t have to be blood. They weren’t poor, Davin said, but with nine kids to feed, there was never quite enough to go around. What they did have, Joy said, were the scars of those early years of abuse and fear.
“We didn’t grow up saying ‘I love you’ all the time,” Davin said. “Nobody liked talking about their emotions.”
Perhaps, Davin said, they just weren’t equipped to process their feelings back then. He understands now that, when Joy was confronted with the loss of her daughter, she didn’t appreciate the fragility of the 11-year-old boy on the other end of the phone. She couldn’t console. She wanted answers. How did this happen? Where was he when she was under water? Why hadn’t he noticed?
What Davin heard was a question that has hung with him like a weight around his neck ever since. Why hadn’t he saved her?
THE KIDS SCATTERED in different directions when they arrived at the pool that night, each to their own clique of friends. Kayla had asked Rylan to play with her, but he had scurried off with his own crowd instead.
“If I’d said yes, that might’ve changed everything,” said Rylan, now a sophomore offensive lineman at NC State. “That’s something I held deeply for my whole life.”
The Scottish Hills pool is not large. It’s zigzag-shaped with a deeper side, close to 9 feet, and a shallow side around 4 feet deep. At the time, there was a diving board at one end next to the lifeguard tower, and that’s where Davin had been playing. Joy learned later that Kayla had been underwater for somewhere between five and 10 minutes before anyone noticed. A neighborhood girl whom Kayla would sometimes babysit was the one who first realized something was wrong. The girl’s grandfather dove into the pool and pulled Kayla to the side.
The lifeguard blew a whistle, and a crowd scrambled out of the pool. That’s when Rylan first saw his sister splayed on the concrete. He screamed for Davin, who raced to Kayla’s side. Someone was doing chest compressions. She coughed up a mixture of blood and water.
“I tried to convince myself it wasn’t as bad as it looked,” Davin said.
In the moments after the 911 call, Rylan sat astride a ball machine on the nearby tennis courts as medics worked on his sister, convincing himself she would be fine. He’d see her in the hospital. She’d be awake. She’d hug him and laugh like she always had, and they’d bake a treat on her kitchen set when she got home.
After calling his mother and grandmother, Davin stumbled in a daze to a bench in the courtyard adjacent to the pool where he sat alone, crying and praying.
“The ambulance came and took her away,” Davin said. “I said goodbye to my friends. I don’t really remember the rest of that day. Or, really, that whole time in my life.”
Joy sped from Raleigh to Cary and beat the ambulance to the hospital. Kayla was alive, but her responses were “combative,” suggesting severe brain damage.
At 4 a.m. on Sunday, June 9, Joy and Donald were called back to Kayla’s room. She’d taken a turn, and things looked bleak. Joy called her parents and begged them to return to the hospital.
“I’m a Christian,” Joy said, “but they’re Christians far beyond what I am. And I thought, maybe if they pray for her, she’ll be saved.”
An autopsy showed no trauma to Kayla’s head or neck, no damage to her heart that would suggest a medical event had preceded her drowning. Fluid was found in her lungs. Her official cause of death was heart failure brought on by oxygen deprivation.
Joy begged the town of Cary to investigate, but officials insisted it was an accident. ESPN filed a Freedom of Information Act request for any documents pertaining to a police investigation and was told no such reports exist. At the time, Joy didn’t have the resources or the willpower to push back. She eventually filed a lawsuit, but without a police investigation, she had little evidence of wrongdoing. The sides eventually settled.
“They just said, ‘This is what we think your kid’s life was worth,’ and that was it,” she said.
It fell to Joy to explain to the other kids that Kayla died. What has stayed with her is the sound Rylan made when she told him — an anguished howl that still haunts her now.
So much of what happened after that is a blur.
That day, Joy walked the trail behind their house that led down to the pool, and she thought of the future Kayla would never enjoy.
“So many things get taken when a kid is just 13,” Joy said. “It just seems so terribly unfair.”
Brittany graduated from high school two days after Kayla died. The family was there, but it was just a formality. There was no celebration. There are pictures but not memories.
The funeral was held the next day. Seeing his sister in the coffin is the one clear memory Davin has of that week.
“I didn’t know when you die,” Davin said, “the body you see in the coffin, it doesn’t look like the person you knew.”
Davin retreated inward. That has always been his defense mechanism when times are hard. Joy has seen it happen on the football field after a bad play, but back then, she was too mired in her own grief to understand the implications of Davin’s silence.
What she remembers instead is a night soon after the funeral. She was lying in her bed, sobbing, and Davin came in to console her. He didn’t know what to say, so he just reached out and rubbed her foot.
“And I just thought, ‘What a sweet boy,'” Joy said.
For the next 10 years, though, Davin did not see a sweet boy. He saw a mistake.
DAVIN WEARS NO. 1 at NC State, which is intended as an honor. Each year, Doeren awards the jersey number to the player who best embodies the leadership skills he wants the team to emulate. Doeren met with Davin before his freshman season and predicted he’d one day be a team captain. Now it was reality.
“There’s this lion inside him,” Doeren said.
Davin wanted no part of it.
There was a sentimental reason, he said. He wore No. 45 — two digits that, summed, equal nine. Nine for the number of kids in his family. Nine was Kayla’s basketball jersey. Nine had meaning.
But that was an excuse. Davin really wanted to hide from a spotlight he didn’t think he deserved. He saw leadership as a burden, and he’d spent years carrying so many already.
The darkness that followed Kayla’s death festered and metastasized inside him. As a boy, he acted out, then drew further inward. He remembers little from Kayla’s death until high school, years lost in a fog. He got in trouble. Not real trouble, Joy said, just kid stuff, but Davin is not so sure. He can laugh now about the time he and Rylan acted out their favorite wrestling moves, only for Rylan’s tooth to end up stuck in Davin’s hand — one brother needing a root canal and the other needing hand surgery. But there were worse things, too, Davin said. Things he’s ashamed of in retrospect, such as bringing a knife to school; decisions born from hanging out with the wrong crowd and a simmering fury he held inside.
“I felt like the world was against me,” Davin said. “I didn’t want to listen to anybody about anything.”
Sports allowed Davin a chance to vent his anger without drawing attention. He blossomed in wrestling and football, recording 17 sacks and earning a Shrine Bowl invitation as a senior at Cary High School. He had dozens of scholarship offers, but he chose NC State to remain close to home. Davin never looked at his memories of Kayla straight on, but he couldn’t leave her behind, either.
Davin’s college career progressed just as Doeren had envisioned. By his third season, he was a full-time starter at defensive end. The next year, he was one of the most productive pass rushers in the ACC. He considered the NFL draft, and when he announced he would return for one final season with the Wolfpack, the fan base celebrated.
Davin couldn’t understand any of it.
“A lot of guys talk about how they go through hardships and injuries and stuff like that, but for me it was the opposite,” he said. “My hardship came from the success I was having. It felt like no matter what I did or how hard I worked for it, I didn’t deserve any of the accolades or success or publicity. It felt wrong.”
The people around him inevitably called him humble. Joy won’t argue with the characterization, but she knows there is more to it.
“Sometimes he really didn’t know why anyone wanted him to play college football,” Joy said. “He’d say, ‘I’m not very good.’ He’s just really hard on himself.”
Davin minored in psychology at NC State, and in those courses he learned terms such as suicidal ideation and survivor’s guilt and imposter syndrome. He had them all. But he also believed something more profound about himself: that the universe saw past his success to something deeper, something ugly and unfixable. It’s what led him to the front seat of his Mustang that night.
At almost that same moment, Doeren was on a Zoom with a Canadian performance coach he’d found on social media, deep in meditation. And he’d just had a revelation.
DOEREN WAS IN his office in late October 2023, lamenting his team’s blowout loss to rival Duke. NC State had begun the season with high expectations, but the Wolfpack were instead 4-3, and their starting quarterback had just quit the team to pursue a transfer. Criticism had been mounting, and Doeren was at a breaking point. To clear his head, he pulled out his phone and began thumbing through his Instagram feed, where he found Dan de Luis.
The video that caught Doeren’s attention was titled “Five Rules to Provide More Peace of Mind.” In it, de Luis strolls through a leafy field in Mallorytown, Ontario, and he implores his followers to ignore external critics and look inward for a path to betterment.
Doeren is an old-school, blue-collar football coach who’s not inclined to buy into a motivational pitch from a social media influencer, but he watched this “hippy-dippy life coach” with rapt attention.
“It was like he was talking to me,” Doeren said.
Doeren was so inspired by the message, he picked up his phone and called his friend, artist John Bukaty, to share the moment. He urged Bukaty to watch the video, too, and it sparked an idea.
“There’s a reason you saw that,” Bukaty told Doeren. “I’m going to call him.”
Doeren shrugged it off, but within the hour, his phone rang.
De Luis sports a chest-length beard, scraggly and streaked with gray, and he’s almost always wearing a ski cap and a T-shirt, often emblazoned with the logo of a favorite rock band. He has worked with hundreds of “high-performance” clients, from NHL stars to Olympians to Fortune 500 CEOs. On Instagram, he has 410,000 followers. He offers reassuring self-help mantras with practiced empathy.
The centerpiece of his practice is a method of intentional, deep breathing designed to “flex” the circulatory system, which can create physiological and psychological responses that de Luis calls a “flow state,” in which clients often report an ability to confront long-held trauma or discover life-altering realizations — a “cathartic release,” de Luis calls it.
On that first call, de Luis taught Doeren some basic breathing techniques designed to calm his mind and center his focus. They kept at it, and by week’s end, the lessons helped Doeren shed the noise and distractions that had clouded his thinking, allowing him to focus on the steps he needed to remedy a spiraling season. He gave an emphatic speech to his team later that week in which he told players to either buy in or get out. He named a new starting QB, whom the players rallied behind. It was a turning point, and the Wolfpack would win their next five games.
Doeren and de Luis stayed in touch in the months that followed. During one of those “flow states” in a session in February, Doeren had an epiphany: “Davin needs this.”
Doeren believes one of his best assets as a coach is an ability to connect with his players, and for weeks, he’d seen Davin retreat from interactions with teammates, keep quiet during meetings, slouch in his seat and shuffle through the locker room. Doeren saw a player who needed help.
Doeren hedged the introduction as a favor Davin could do for the team. He thought de Luis’ sessions could be useful for the players, and he wanted Davin to give it a try and provide feedback. (De Luis now accompanies the team before games and works with as many as 40 players.)
Davin worked with de Luis via Zoom for a few months — “Beginning to crack the door open,” de Luis said — but in April, de Luis flew to Raleigh for a three-day retreat at Doeren’s lake house. De Luis hoped he could push the door fully open.
“This works if you’re ready,” de Luis told him.
“I’m ready,” Davin said.
They practiced breathing in the morning, did yoga in the afternoon, and finished the day with meditative breathing aimed at relaxing the body before sleep.
Davin was amazed with the results. He could exhale and hold his breath for five, 10 minutes. At one point, he reeled off 100 push-ups while taking just a single breath. He felt relaxed, open, free from the weight he’d carried for so long.
In between sessions, Davin and de Luis talked about what had led them here. De Luis calls this “set and setting” — creating an atmosphere where people reluctant to share emotions feel more comfortable being vulnerable.
“What you’re holding inside,” de Luis told him, “that demon, that animal — the strongest thing a man can do is say he needs help.”
Growing up, Davin and Rylan had shared a bedroom, and in all those years, they’d never once talked about the day Kayla died. It was only after Davin left for NC State, when Rylan would make regular weekend trips to stay with his brother, that the veil finally lifted. It was Davin’s sophomore year, and the brothers were up late, playing video games and watching TV, and somehow they started talking about Kayla. They were surprised how often their perceptions of what happened diverged. They talked about the guilt they felt, and they were surprised at how much of that they shared. It was cathartic, Davin says now, but it wasn’t a wholesale change. He still wasn’t ready to truly face what happened, he said. Acceptance meant Kayla was really gone.
De Luis had endured trauma, too, and he shared his story willingly — about the “intense” father, the bouts of severe anxiety and depression, about the back injury that left him virtually bedridden for nearly two years in his 20s, and about finding salvation in yoga and breathing exercises at precisely the moment he hit rock bottom.
Davin listened, and his defenses began to crumble. Eventually, his whole story came out — the guilt and the anger and the grief. It was a moment he had run from for more than half his life, and now that he had faced it, he felt relief.
That was the lesson, de Luis told him. Davin had used his anger over his sister’s death as his motivation for so long, but it had only led him deeper into despair. It was time to focus on his love for Kayla instead.
“Dan had told me I can’t hold on to my past,” Davin said. “It’s a stepping stone I need to learn to live with, but it’s not me.”
On the last morning of the retreat, de Luis had Davin wade into Lake Gaston. It was 40 degrees and the water was freezing, but as Davin inhaled and exhaled with measured precision, the discomfort disappeared, and his thoughts turned to Kayla.
He could see her now. She was not angry with him. She loved him, and she wanted him to be happy.
“Kayla’s death changed the mindset of an 11-year-old boy. It put me in a victim mentality,” Davin said. “I’ve changed my mindset. I’m doing it for her now. She can’t be here, but I’m trying to let her live vicariously through me by being the best I can be.”
Davin and de Luis drove back to Raleigh blaring Zach Bryan and Luke Combs, and when they arrived on campus, Davin rushed to see Doeren. He grabbed his coach and hugged him — “Like I’ve never been hugged before,” Doeren said — and when he let go, his eyes welled with tears, and he smiled.
“Thank you, Coach,” he said. “You saved my life.”
THERE IS NOT a clean denouement to Davin’s story. He’s in a better place, but he still fights the battles, he said. On Oct. 5, in a game against Wake Forest, NC State quarterback Grayson McCall was hit by a defender, who buried his helmet under McCall’s chin. The QB crumbled to the ground and laid there, motionless. Vann ambled to the sidelines in a daze, sobbing. The scene — the unconscious body, the terrified onlookers, the scrambling trainers and doctors — it was too familiar. After games, Rylan always brings his mom a Gatorade, and Davin delivers hugs and recounts his plays. This time, the brothers were quiet, said their goodbyes and went straight home. Old habits, Davin said. But he could still breathe and refocus and find his way back.
“I’m in a lot better spot,” Davin said. “I won’t say I don’t deal with mental health issues, but I’m better at dealing with them.”
Davin and his mother talk often of Kayla now — and about what her loss meant to their family. Davin now understands that the weight he carried, Joy carried, too. Joy has found enough distance to understand that her pain kept her from seeing all the hurt her boys held for so long.
“We’ve talked about it a lot,” Joy said. “He’s told me he’s been…”
She can’t say it, but she knows. She was there, too.
“Dark moments,” she said. “Scary.”
She has regrets. They all do. But they don’t dwell on them.
“Did Kayla know that I loved her that much? That’s a regret I have,” Joy said. “Because of all the things I had going on, I didn’t say ‘I love you’ all the time to my kids. Now we do say it. The boys always tell me, every time I hang up the phone.”
That’s a gift. A gift from Kayla.
“We’ll never understand why things happen,” Joy said. “Not just with Kayla. We don’t understand the plan. We just have to appreciate that she was here for the 13 years we got to hang out with her and appreciate the things that make us tougher than where we started.”
Maybe this is how the universe works.
A girl went into a pool and stopped breathing. Her brother found football as an outlet for his grief, went to a college where his coach introduced him to a healer who taught comfort through breathing. The breathing saved his life.
There are forces at work in the universe that Davin will never understand, but he sees them more clearly now.
“It’s hard to think about, but how would life have turned out if none of that happened?” Davin said. “Of course I wish it didn’t, but how close would our family be? Would we still be in those bad habits we were back then? It’s crazy to think about.”
In August, Davin stood at the head of NC State’s team meeting room to deliver his senior speech. In front of him were more than 120 coaches and teammates. Aside from Doeren and Rylan, no one knew his whole story, but he was finally ready to share.
“I wanted to show people that I’m human, too,” Davin said. “I wanted to be as honest as I could be.”
He hadn’t written the speech down, but he’d practiced what he wanted to say a dozen times at least. At lunch before the team meeting, Davin and Rylan sat together, going over the introduction again and again to get it just right.
How do you start to talk about something so big?
Breathe, Davin thought. Take the first step. Breathe again, and trust that the universe has put you here for a reason, that there are people here who need to hear your story.
And so he told them about Kayla and Joy and Rylan and the pain and the anger and the guilt and the hopelessness and, at last, the refuge, forgiveness and love he found in his family and his team and, yes, the sister who’d been there all along.
“Growing up, it didn’t feel like she was with me. It felt like she was gone,” Davin said. “I wasn’t ready to let her be with me. I wasn’t ready for the truth. Now, I pray before every game. It sounds crazy, but I talk to her — ‘I hope you’re up there watching.’ I tell her what I want to do, and that I do it for her.
“I ask her to protect me.”
If you or someone you know is having thoughts of suicide or is in emotional distress, contact the Suicide & Crisis Lifeline at 988 or at 988lifeline.org.
Trailing Ole Miss after halftime, Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton delivered in a big moment once again in the Bulldogs’ come-from-behind win over the fifth-ranked Rebels on Saturday.
“He’s wired for these tight moments because he’s tough,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said afterward of the Bulldogs’ quarterback. “His team believes in him.”
Nearly 60% of the way through the 2025 college football regular season, we’re learning more about the nation’s top programs with each passing week. Rising stars, like Stockton, are emerging. Surprise powers are gaining steam in the College Football Playoff race. And once-vaunted title contenders are showing their true colors, falling off one by one.
Week 8 featured statement wins in the SEC from Alabama, Georgia and Vanderbilt and gut-check defeats for CFP favorites Miami, Ole Miss and Texas Tech. Quarterbacks Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt) and Fernando Mendoza (Indiana) padded their Heisman Trophy résumés, while Carson Beck‘s candidacy suffered a blow in Miami’s defeat to Louisville. At Notre Dame, we saw just how dangerous the Fighting Irish can be when, you know, they simply hand the ball off to Jeremiyah Love.
With Week 8 in the books, this week’s power rankings explore the biggest lessons we’ve learned about the top teams across the country so far this fall. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: 1
The Buckeyes brought back a pair of star defenders from last year’s national championship team in safety Caleb Downs and linebacker Sonny Styles. Yet there might not be a defender playing better in college football than Styles’ cohort at linebacker, Arvell Reese. The junior from Cleveland has been an absolute game-wrecker, compiling a team-high 42 tackles and 5.5 sacks for a defense that has given up just 41 points all season. Reese is establishing himself as a first-round NFL draft talent while teaming up with Styles to give the Buckeyes the best linebacking duo in the country. Ohio State had the No. 1-ranked defense last year. Reese is a big reason the Buckeyes are suffocating the opposition once again. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 3
The Hoosiers have another star at quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, who not only has emerged as a Heisman front-runner but is rocketing up 2026 NFL draft boards as potentially the top quarterback prospect. The Cal transfer has completed 73.5% of his passes and tossed a national-best 21 touchdowns with only two interceptions. Mendoza is also fifth nationally with a QBR of 87.7 and fourth in yards per passing attempt (9.7). Indiana won 10 games for the first time in school history and made it to the playoff last year behind the arm of Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke. The second-ranked Hoosiers are getting even better quarterback play this season. — Trotter
Previous ranking: 4
The biggest lesson Texas A&M has learned this year, according to coach Mike Elko, is how to win. That was tested again Saturday against a dangerous Arkansas team in Bobby Petrino’s first home game since returning as interim coach, and just the Aggies’ second visit to Fayetteville since 1990, when the Ags and Hogs were Southwest Conference members. Marcel Reed threw for 280 yards and three TDs and ran for 55 yards and another score — he had another 57-yard TD run called back on a penalty — and A&M is 7-0 for the first time since 1994. The Aggies allowed 8.4 yards per carry and will have to tighten that up. They head to Baton Rouge this week to face an LSU team coming off a loss to Vanderbilt, then play at Missouri, before returning home to face South Carolina and Samford, setting up the final-game showdown against Texas. The schedule is tough but manageable, and now Elko will find out how far along they are in their education. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 7
Perhaps the biggest lesson the Crimson Tide have learned is how to play with an edge, something that was missing in the season-opening loss to Florida State. Over their six-game winning streak, the Tide have rewritten the narrative to their season, and coach Kalen DeBoer praised his team for finding a different way to win every week with the type of edge that makes the difference. In a 37-20 win over Tennessee, it was the defense that stepped up for its best performance to date. Ty Simpson has led the way with his steady leadership, making clutch throws to help the Tide seal wins against Georgia and Missouri. It has not looked pretty at times, and DeBoer acknowledges this team still has a long way to go, but the sign of any good team is finding ways to win. And that is what Alabama has done since the opener. The Crimson Tide are now sitting in great position to make their way back to the SEC title game, particularly after four straight wins against ranked conference opponents. Quite the turnaround from late August, when there were questions about whether DeBoer was the right guy to lead this team. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 8
Georgia fans who had any lingering doubts about quarterback Gunner Stockton probably don’t have them any longer after Saturday’s 43-35 victory against Ole Miss. After missing two days of practice because of an oblique injury he sustained in the victory at Auburn on Oct. 11, Stockton returned and had the best game of his career against the Rebels. He completed 26 of 31 passes for 289 yards, ran 10 times for 59 yards and scored five total touchdowns. Stockton was a perfect 12-for-12 with three touchdowns in the second half. In his first full season as Georgia’s starter, Stockton has shown plenty of toughness, physically and mentally. Even when the Bulldogs fell behind in games against Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn and Ole Miss, Stockton never flinched. He ranks No. 2 in the FBS in total QBR (91.0) and has thrown only one interception with 17 total touchdowns. — Mark Schlabach
Previous ranking: 9
After losing their first home game in the Dan Lanning era since 2022, the Ducks took out their frustration on Rutgers, scoring 56 points in just three quarters and gaining 750 total yards on their way to a commanding bounce-back victory. Oregon’s misstep against Indiana on Oct. 11 could have allowed for the cross-country road trip to be a letdown spot. Instead, Lanning & Co. proved that the Ducks still have all the makings of a title contender. If there’s any lesson they have learned through seven games, it is that their running game is as good as any in the country and likely should be what carries them forward the rest of the season. On Saturday, they rushed for 415 yards, bumping their average per game to 243 yards — the ninth-best mark in the nation — and this season they boast four rushers who have 249 yards or more on the ground and have combined for 18 rushing touchdowns. — Paolo Uggetti
Previous ranking: 10
The last remaining unbeaten team in the ACC? That would be the Yellow Jackets, just as we all predicted back in August, right? Saturday’s win at Duke was hardly emphatic, but Tech got the breaks it needed, and Haynes King was outstanding once again, throwing for 205 yards, running for 120 and scoring once. The fact Duke tested Georgia Tech’s secondary isn’t a surprise. The Blue Devils’ passing attack is ferocious. And any red flags raised aren’t likely to be serious concerns against the next few opponents. But awaiting at year’s end is Georgia, and the Bulldogs will test Georgia Tech’s defense significantly. The Jackets need to be ready. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 2
Carson Beck’s four interceptions doomed Miami in a loss to Louisville that felt like another check mark in the “How to blow your postseason expectations” playbook the Canes have run for a while now. Instead, it was probably more of a warning sign that some things need to be fixed ASAP if Miami still has title hopes — namely a stagnating run game and a lack of a third weapon in the passing game. Malachi Toney and, to a lesser degree, CJ Daniels, are threats at receiver. No one else has contributed much of anything in the past month. Can Miami develop a threat — Elija Lofton? Keelan Marion? — and open a few more holes at the line of scrimmage for the backs? If not, this season could go south on the back half of the schedule just as it did last year. — Hale
Previous ranking: 5
The Rebels scored enough points to win at Georgia on Saturday, but their defense couldn’t get the Bulldogs off the field, especially in the fourth quarter when it mattered most. Georgia had 510 yards of offense and 34 first downs. The Bulldogs ran for 221 yards, converted 6 of 11 third-down conversions and controlled the clock for 37:39. Even worse, the Bulldogs scored on each of their first eight possessions and never punted.
“It really wasn’t one thing,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said. “They really kind of did everything there. We did limit explosive plays, but it was a slow death. Thirty-four first downs, that’s hard to do against the [scout] team.”
Can the Rebels make enough corrections on that side of the ball to remain a legitimate CFP contender? After their upcoming trip to Oklahoma, they have a very favorable schedule the rest of the way with three straight road games against South Carolina, The Citadel and Florida before closing the regular season at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl on Nov. 28. — Schlabach
Previous ranking: 14
The Cougars have won 17 of their past 19 games. There is just a winning DNA that permeates through the program at this point, and any concern about being able to win with a true freshman quarterback should be gone. There is something about their ability to keep winning close games that manages to both inspire confidence and spark some concern. There is confidence in knowing they won’t get rattled, but at the same time, there still really hasn’t been a comprehensive performance where they clicked in all phases of the game. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 6
The Red Raiders got their first taste of adversity in Tempe, coming into the game averaging 558.8 yards per game — best in the FBS — but managing just 276 in a 26-22 loss to Arizona State without starting quarterback Behren Morton, who was out with an injury. Still, Texas Tech was down 12 points in the fourth quarter and rallied to take the lead, before Sam Leavitt drove ASU to the game-winning score with 34 seconds left, a bitter ending for a Tech defense that has been among the nation’s best. The Red Raiders have a showdown looming with undefeated BYU on Nov. 8 that will have massive Big 12 title and College Football Playoff implications, but the rest of the schedule shapes up nicely, with a home game against 1-6 Oklahoma State this week. Other than the Cougars and Cowboys, Tech has Kansas State, UCF and West Virginia remaining, with a combined 9-12 record, 3-9 in the Big 12. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 20
Coach Clark Lea said before the Week 8 game that his team didn’t play Vanderbilt football all the way to the finish against Alabama and that he hoped to see a more resilient response against LSU. The Commodores pulled off a 31-24 win Saturday, their first victory over LSU in 35 years, with poised play in all three phases of the game. Quarterback Diego Pavia was a magician as usual, but his defense deserves a ton of credit for how it fought back to stop drives and forced LSU to settle for four field goal attempts, including a 23-yarder after the Tigers got down to the 1-yard line. This is not the same team that lost four of its last five in SEC play last year after a hot start. Vandy is 6-1 and will be a contender in the SEC (and CFP) race the rest of the way. — Max Olson
Previous ranking: 13
Unlike a year ago, the Sooners have a formula for winning games in 2025. Oklahoma’s smothering defense once again led the way in Saturday’s 26-7 win over South Carolina, limiting the Gamecocks to 54 rushing yards and sacking quarterback LaNorris Sellers six times, while the John Mateer-powered offense provided just enough scoring for the Sooners. Encouragingly, a previously sleepy Oklahoma run game showed life in Week 8; the 171 rushing yards, led by freshman Tory Blaylock (101 yards), marked the program’s most productive rushing performance against a power-conference opponent this fall. The same formula Oklahoma relied upon during its hot start in September did the job again Saturday in a critical post-Texas rebound. The question now: Will the combination of elite defense and timely playmaking from Mateer & Co. hold up against stiffer competition? Time will tell as the Sooners open a run of five consecutive ranked matchups to close the regular season, with a visit from Ole Miss in Week 9. — Lederman
Previous ranking: 16
Giving the ball to Jeremiyah Love — and fellow star running back Jadarian Price — in as many ways as possible is always a good idea. Love, who infamously received only 14 touches in a season-opening loss to Miami, ran for 228 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries in Saturday’s win against USC and added five receptions for 37 yards. Price, who had only six carries in the Miami loss, had 87 rushing yards and a touchdown on 13 carries, with a 100-yard kick return touchdown after Notre Dame had fallen behind. “We start with the run game,” Price said. The Irish also learned they’re gradually making strides on defense, especially up front, but also with a secondary that made enough plays against the potent USC passing attack. — Adam Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 15
If nothing else, Mizzou is a ridiculously resilient team. Somehow only heading on the road for the first time this season, the Tigers watched a number of drives stall out near midfield and found themselves trailing 14-10 with Auburn facing a third-and-goal from the 1. But Marquis Gracial stuffed Jeremiah Cobb for a loss and forced a field goal, Mizzou tied the game at 17-17, and even when the offense faltered on a late drive in regulation and missed a field goal in overtime, the defense kept making plays. Auburn’s last 17 snaps gained just 29 yards, and with Beau Pribula‘s second overtime touchdown, Mizzou survived, 23-17, and advanced to 6-1. There’s nothing pretty about playing Auburn this season, but Mizzou escaped. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 19
In the longstanding debate over whether it’s better to be lucky or good, Virginia would certainly hope it checks enough boxes in the latter category, but its past three games have certainly made the case for the former. The Cavaliers needed double overtime to beat Florida State, two defensive touchdowns and overtime to beat Louisville, and on Saturday, had to erase a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit to Washington State before winning on a late safety that followed a dismal mistake on a fair catch call near the goal line by the Cougars. Add it all up, the Hoos are 6-1, bowl eligible and in control of their destiny in the ACC — but play with fire too many times and sooner or later, they’re going to get burned. — Hale
Previous ranking: 21
The biggest revelation is that the Bulls are in a great position to represent the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff. Behind dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown, the Bulls keep on rolling through their American conference schedule. And with an early season win over Florida, USF is ranked in the top 20 for the first time since 2016. There are tough conference tests ahead, including games against Memphis and Navy (undefeated), but USF is playing with confidence behind its veteran quarterback and an aggressive defense that has improved noticeably over the past season. They did lose to Miami earlier this season, but if anything, that game showed a need to play better up front and that’s what has happened. The Bulls might already be bowl eligible, but coach Alex Golesh said the goals are much higher now and there is no time to celebrate. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 11
If there is one key difference between the Vols this year and last year, it is their defense. Simply put, Tennessee is not as consistent on that side of the ball as it needs to be — ranking among the worst in the SEC in a host of categories. While the Vols held Alabama to under 400 yards of offense in a 37-20 loss, there were also too many big plays given up — particularly on key downs. Joey Aguilar has been steady, but he has also had turnovers at crucial moments in games. It happened again Saturday — Alabama got him to intentionally ground the ball for a safety, and then a 99-yard pick-sick at the end of the first half ultimately doomed them. The run game is not nearly as productive as a year ago either, and the combination of all three has hurt the Vols in some big-time moments. Having said that, this is still one of the best offenses in the country. If the defense can find ways to be more productive, Tennessee could be in the mix for an at-large CFP berth down the stretch. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 24
Don’t sleep on the Bearcats. They’ve won six in a row since their last-minute loss to Nebraska in Kansas City to open the season. They took care of business on the road Saturday with a 49-17 rout of Oklahoma State and remain tied with BYU atop the Big 12 standings. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby continues to play with consistency and ranks seventh in the FBS in QBR (85.0), and the Bearcats’ defense finally grabbed its first interception of the season with cornerback Matthew McDoom snagging a goal-line pick and racing 100 yards for a touchdown. This team keeps getting better as it goes and will be ready for the tough tests ahead against Utah and BYU. — Olson
Previous ranking: NR
The most impressive thing that has been learned about the Cards is that they have an elite defense this year. That was not the case in 2024 when Louisville struggled to both create pressure up front and limit explosive plays in the passing game. Coach Jeff Brohm took a more active role with the defense and the results have been immediate. Louisville ranks in the top 15 in the country in total defense, and that was on full display in an upset win over Miami this past weekend. The Cards completely shut down the Miami run game, holding the Hurricanes to 63 yards on the ground and had four total interceptions. Their run game got going, too, and the offensive line played its best game of the season. If Louisville can continue to play complementary football, it might very well play its way into the ACC championship game. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 18
Sometimes a win feels less like a win than an endurance contest, and regardless of how it feels, the Longhorns will take it after a 16-13 overtime win at Kentucky, which was 2-3 and 0-3 in the SEC going into the game. Texas had just 179 yards of offense — its fewest in a win in at least 30 years — with eight first downs. Arch Manning struggled, too, going 12-of-27 for 132 yards. The Horns’ leading rusher, Quintrevion Wisner, had 12 carries for 37 yards and Manning, who had pressure in his face much of the evening, had 11 carries for -1 yard. Texas suddenly has a challenging schedule down the stretch, with a road trip to Starkville against Mississippi State, followed by No. 10 Vanderbilt, at No. 5 Georgia, home against a dangerous Arkansas team and then finishes the season with No. 3 Texas A&M. If the offense can’t get things straightened out quickly, danger lurks down the stretch. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 17
The Trojans have one of the nation’s best quarterbacks in Jayden Maiava and a passing attack that should strike fear in most opponents. But their inability to finish games on the road, especially when opportunities present themselves, remains a major drawback for coach Lincoln Riley. USC could have stolen a game at Illinois but was unable to get a final defensive stop. The Trojans took a third quarter lead at Notre Dame, only to give it right back after allowing a 100-yard kick return touchdown to Jadarian Price. After converting a third-and-9 to enter Notre Dame territory, Riley inexplicably called for a wide receiver option, which resulted in a turnover that swung momentum for good. Riley called it “a stupid call,” and he was right. USC has improved from last year but still needs to figure out how to play better on the road. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: NR
The Illini learned they have a big-time quarterback in Luke Altmyer and an improved downfield passing attack, highlighted by wide receiver Hank Beatty, which averages 9.4 yards per attempt and has recorded 23 completions of 20 yards or longer. Illinois also knows it must play better along the line of scrimmage, and avoid critical breakdowns, to hang with the better opponents left on its schedule. The Illini have as many sacks allowed as 20-yard completions and are averaging just 3.5 yards per rush with only one run longer than 26 yards all season. Their defense held up decently against top-ranked Ohio State, but they have struggled against the pass rush and rank near the bottom of the FBS in third-down defense (45.1% conversions). Those areas must improve after a much needed open week as Illinois visits Washington. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: NR
The Wolverines went out and won the way Sherrone Moore wanted to see on Saturday in a 24-7 home win over Washington. Their defense rebounded from a 31-13 loss to USC and flipped a close game with two second-half interceptions off Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. Running back Jordan Marshall stepped up for an injured Justice Haynes with a career-high 133 rushing yards. This one felt like a must-win with a manageable four-game stretch ahead that sets this team up to be 9-2 entering its showdown with its top-ranked rival. — Olson
Previous ranking: NR
Idle in Week 8, Navy stands as one of six remaining unbeaten programs across major college football. Powered by the nation’s No. 1 rushing offense (305 YPG), the Midshipmen have proven to this point that last season’s 10-3 finish — the program’s best since 2019 — was not an aberration, but a signal of the program’s progression under third-year coach Brian Newberry. Navy is once again leaning on hard-running quarterback Blake Horvath, who ranks second in rushing yards among quarterbacks nationally. Meanwhile, a Midshipmen defense that finished 34th in scoring defense a year ago has remained similarly stingy in 2025, allowing opponents only 21.5 points per game. In the thick of the American Conference title race for a second straight year, Navy has major tests ahead of it in November with ranked matchups against Notre Dame, South Florida and Memphis still to come before the program’s annual meeting with Army on Dec. 13. — Lederman
Matthew Schaefer has had quite the debut in the NHL, hasn’t he? He’s scored a point in every game he’s played — including a fun first NHL goal. ESPN analyst John Tortorella noted that he reminds him of Hall of Famer Chris Pronger with his skating … that’s not bad at all for the New York Islanders‘ first overall pick from the 2025 draft.
The debut has also been historical. Schaefer started his NHL career with a five-game point streak (and counting). That’s the second longest point streak by any defenseman from the start of their career, behind only Marek Zidlicky (six games) in 2003-04. He is the first 18-year-old defenseman in NHL history to achieve that (every other 18-year-old on the list was a forward).
His first NHL goal was electric. There was a big scrum in front on an Islanders power play, amid the chaos the puck is lost, and Schaefer barges in from the blue line and pokes the puck that was barely visible under Logan Thompson‘s pads into the net in a seamless motion. Among his many other traits, the hockey IQ is quite high.
Schaefer turned 18 on Sept. 5; yes, just over a month ago. He is the youngest defenseman to make his NHL debut, to record a point in his NHL debut, the youngest NHL player on record to score his first goal on the power play, and the youngest player to play 25-plus minutes in a game.
He’s also garnering a lot of early “Isles franchise player of the future” nods from the Islanders faithful. It might be a bit early to be doling out accolades like that. But Matthew Schaefer is definitely fun to watch, and the best is yet to come.
Jump ahead:
Games of the week
What I liked this weekend
Hart Trophy candidates
Social post of the week
Biggest games of the week
7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Obviously the biggest game of the week from a storyline perspective is Brad Marchand returning for his first game in Boston. He was injured the last time the Panthers visited Boston, so all of the pomp and circumstance will come during this game.
Marchand is a banner- and statue-level guy in Beantown, without question. I expect an extended ovation, then the fans booing him when he levels David Pastrnak in a scrum.
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Two playoff teams from last season. Star power aplenty, with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt on one side, against Auston Matthews, William Nylander and John Tavares on the other.
But there’s another wrinkle to this one. Greg Wyshynski and I created a brand new “North American Hockey Championship” title belt for our digital show “The Drop,” and it’s currently held by me thanks to the Canadian victory in last year’s 4 Nations Face-Off. This is how title defenses work: for every Canada vs. USA international game, men’s or women’s, the title is automatically on the line. In addition, the challenger can choose any NHL game with any sort of Canada vs. USA connection for the belt to be up for grabs.
In this case it’s easy — an American team visiting a Canadian one — and it’s the team for which Wysh grew up rooting against the one for which I grew up rooting. If the Devils win, then the U.S. is the new North American hockey champion. If the Leafs win, Canada retains.
Other key matchups this week
10 p.m. ET | ESPN+
10 p.m. ET | ESPN
9 p.m. ET | ESPN+
9 p.m. ET | ESPN+
6 p.m. ET | ESPN+
What I liked this weekend
Friday was a big day for college hockey. On paper, Boston University vs. Michigan State was already a heavyweight matchup — 34 NHL prospects with 20 NHL teams were represented in the game. The game was broadcast on ESPN2, which is terrific for a matchup so early in the college hockey season. This is the dawn of a new era of NCAA on the ice, with the rules surrounding CHL players changing, and the continued growth and interest in the college game.
The Spartans led 2-0 through two periods, but BU fought back and the game went to overtime tied 3-3. BU’s Cole Eiserman (Islanders prospect) appeared to win it, but MSU’s Shane Vansaghi (Flyers) swept the puck away before it crossed the goal line. The Spartans brought it back the other way, and Matt Basgall (undrafted) scored off a feed from Ryker Lee (Predators).
Also, count me in as a fan of the NHL’s newest mascot, Tusky. I like Tusky’s overall look, and particularly his dark blue mohawk. I thought the introduction of breaking through blocks of foam ice was cute, and the name is easy for kids to say. I’m a massive fan of mascots — they are critical to game presentation and in-arena fun, to social content, and especially to helping kids and new hockey fans make core memories. I look forward to seeing what fun things the Mammoth have planned for Tusky.
Tusky is here, and he’s perfect! @TuskyNHL pic.twitter.com/APOr2NnYGG
— Utah Mammoth (@utahmammoth) October 16, 2025
MVP candidates if the season ended today…
Vegas center Jack Eichel leads the league with 15 points. He had some support for the Hart among our ESPN hockey crew this preseason, and could remain a top candidate all season (particularly if the scoring keeps up).
0:49
Jack Eichel nets goal for Golden Knights
Jack Eichel lights the lamp for Golden Knights
Speaking of lighting up the scoreboard, Ottawa Senators forward Shane Pinto has seven goals through six games, with all seven of them at even strength. The Senators will need to find other sources of scoring while Brady Tkachuk is out.
Given that goaltender Connor Hellebuyck won the Hart last season, we can’t forget the netminders this season either. You’d have to take a long look at New York Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin. Despite going 2-2-1, he boasts a .962 save percentage and is allowing only one goal per game on average. Scott Wedgewood might win out among goalies, however, as he’s started the season 5-0-1 with a .938 save percentage, saving 136 of 145 shots for the first-place Colorado Avalanche.
And hey, if the season ended today, I’d even toss Matthew Schaefer‘s name in the mix based on all the ridiculous stats I highlighted earlier.
Hockey social media post of the week
One of my favorite people on social media is “Kickball Dad” — especially when the Miami Dolphins do something to annoy him, or he’s zipping around the backyard on his mower. He might also be the first person in recorded history to shoot hockey pucks on the beach in the Bahamas.
He’s also a massive Devils fan, and made a video going to the home opener:
It all comes down to Game 7 in the American League Championship Series — with a trip to the World Series on the line.
The Toronto Blue Jays cruised to victory over the Seattle Mariners in a must-win Game 6 on Sunday night to keep their championship aspirations alive and force Monday’s win-or-go-home ALCS finale, with the winner set to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Fall Classic.
Will Toronto finish off the comeback, or will Seattle punch its ticket to its first World Series appearance? We asked our MLB experts to answer seven questions that will decide Game 7 — plus a bonus one looking forward to how the AL pennant winner could match up against the reigning champions.
1. How much will home-field advantage matter for Toronto in Game 7?
Jorge Castillo: It doesn’t hurt. The crowds at Rogers Centre down the stretch of the regular season and into October have been electric. Players have repeatedly complimented the atmosphere. But the Mariners won Games 1 and 2 in Toronto. Those crowds were raucous and it didn’t matter.
Buster Olney: It could mean nothing; the Mariners know they can win in Toronto, as they did in Games 1 and 2. But I do think that getting a lead will be important, because if Seattle falls behind by two or three runs, the challenge of winning one final game at Rogers Centre will be made more difficult by the bonkers crowd.
2. The Mariners have had vibes on their side all season long. How much will Seattle’s ability to keep finding a way matter in Game 7?
Jeff Passan: Vibes take a team only so far. The Mariners are here because of their starting pitching and ability to hit home runs — and they need George Kirby to avoid another disastrous start and the offense to chill with the strikeouts. In Game 3, Kirby got shelled for eight runs, half of which came on three home runs. He instead needs to channel his last win-or-go-home game, when he throttled Detroit for five innings in the division series.
While Seattle has outhomered the Blue Jays in the ALCS, its 28.1% strikeout rate is not good, and Shane Bieber, on the mound for Toronto, will rely heavily on spin — so that happens to play right into his wheelhouse. Both teams are worn down, and getting an early lead would go a long way toward getting the Mariners’ offense right.
Olney: After Game 6, the Mariners talked about how their energy is good and that coming back is part of their identity. But it’s much more important for Seattle to play a clean game — which Julio Rodriguez mentioned after Sunday’s loss. The Mariners made many mistakes early in Game 6, with defensive errors from Rodriguez and Eugenio Suarez and a baserunning mistake by J.P. Crawford. The Blue Jays consistently put the ball in play and pressure the defense, and Seattle has to respond better to survive.
3. Which team has the Game 7 pitching advantage, and why?
David Schoenfield: Slight edge overall to the Blue Jays, mostly based on how the pitching matchup played out in Game 3, when Bieber pitched well (six innings, four hits, two runs, eight strikeouts, 16 swinging strikes) and Kirby did not (four innings, eight runs, three home runs, nine swinging strikes). The Mariners have the late-game edge with Andres Munoz, who will have two days of rest after not pitching in Game 6; Blue Jays closer Jeff Hoffman threw 35 pitches Sunday.
The Mariners do have some early long relief options available in Bryan Woo and Luis Castillo (who threw just 48 pitches in his Game 4 start), but Castillo has been terrible on the road and Woo is an unknown risk, pitching on two days of rest coming off an injury. Look for Kevin Gausman to be a bullpen option for the Blue Jays. Indeed, the Jays would probably like to use Bieber, Gausman, Louis Varland and Hoffman and go no deeper in their pen than that. If someone else gets in the game, though, the Mariners have a chance.
Castillo: The starting pitching edge goes to Toronto for the reasons David presented, but the unknown variable here is Bryan Woo. The All-Star right-hander was Seattle’s ace during the regular season, but a pectoral injury has limited him to those two innings in Game 5. If he can give the Mariners any real, effective length, I think the overall advantage goes to Seattle with Andrés Muñoz also on three days’ rest. Woo is the best pitcher in this series when healthy. He could be the difference.
4. Which player MUST deliver for Seattle to win?
Schoenfield: Kirby. Through six ALCS games, Bryce Miller is the only Mariners starter who has had a good game — and he was the worst of the group in the regular season. Even with two solid efforts from Miller, the rotation has a 7.33 ERA in this series, allowing a .310 average and .993 OPS. Kirby doesn’t have to go deep — and won’t be expected to — but Seattle needs four or five strong innings from him.
Castillo: Since David went with Kirby, I’ll go with Cal Raleigh. The AL MVP candidate has been Seattle’s best player all year, from the regular season through the playoffs, on both sides of the ball. So it was strange to see him have such a rough Game 6, going 0-for-4 with three strikeouts, a GIDP, and a throwing error that allowed Toronto’s final run to score. It’s hard to imagine the Mariners winning Game 7 without some contributions from Raleigh.
5. Which player MUST deliver for Toronto to move on?
Passan: In the Blue Jays’ six wins this postseason, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 15-for-26 with five home runs, 10 RBIs and one strikeout in 30 plate appearances. He is a human litmus test and a reminder that as Vlad Jr. goes, so go the Blue Jays. Getting a good start from Bieber would help plenty — Toronto’s bullpen this postseason has been so helter skelter, relying on any reliever for too long is inviting disaster — but amid the endless cycling of pitchers expected in Game 7, the players with the opportunities to do the most will be on the offensive side. And in the ALCS, no one has been better than Guerrero, who has struck out just twice in 47 plate appearances this postseason.
Olney: Bieber, due to all of the uncertainty presented by the Toronto bullpen. It’s unclear how much Hoffman can provide following his Game 6 outing, and while Varland is trusted, he’s also going to be working on back-to-back days. Jays manager John Schneider talked before Game 6 about possibly using Max Scherzer out of the bullpen, or maybe Chris Bassitt, but it’s difficult to know exactly what he’s going to get from either.
The Jays traded for Bieber at the deadline in the hope that he could pitch meaningful games for them, and it’s hard to imagine a situation more important to a franchise playing for the opportunity to go to the World Series for the first time in 32 years.
6. Call your shot: Who is one unexpected player you think could decide Game 7?
Schoenfield: Ernie Clement has become less surprising as the postseason has rolled along, as he’s hitting .447. Remarkably, he and Guerrero have struck out just twice each in 10 postseason games. That sums up Toronto’s advantage at the plate: These guys put the ball in play. Considering Guerrero might not see a pitch any closer than Manitoba in this game, the players coming up behind him might have to do the damage — and Clement is one of those who will get RBI opportunities.
Passan: Crawford bats in the bottom third of the Mariners’ lineup and has only two hits in the ALCS. So why him? Well, he’s due, for one, but beyond that, Crawford puts together excellent plate appearances every time up — his 4.5 pitches per is the second-highest number among regulars — and he has the lowest strikeout rate among any Seattle player this series.
During the regular season, Crawford’s high-leverage numbers were off the charts: .340/.476/.620. He craves moments that matter. And none in the history of the Mariners franchise matters as much as a Game 7 with a chance to go to the World Series.
7. And really call your shot: Which team will be the last one standing in this ALCS?
Castillo: I’ve written this before and I’ll write it again: I picked Seattle to win the World Series before the season began so I’m not going to deviate from that even though the Blue Jays have been the better team since dropping the first two games of this series. Seattle rebounds with a 6-4 win.
Passan: The coin-flip nature of postseason baseball is personified by the record of home teams in winner-takes-all games: 71-67. And considering how back-and-forth this series has been, either team emerging would make plenty of sense. The idea that Kirby and Bieber both shove is very realistic, which would make this a battle of the bullpens. With Andrés Muńoz able to work multiple innings after two days’ rest and Hoffman coming off a 35-pitch outing, though, the edge tilts ever so slightly in Seattle’s favor. The Mariners advance to their first World Series with a 3-2 win.
Bonus: Which team should the Dodgers want to see move on — or is L.A. simply too good for it to matter?
Passan: Simply because Los Angeles would have home-field advantage and less strenuous travel, the answer is Seattle. In terms of talent, as the ALCS has illustrated, the Blue Jays and Mariners are about as evenly matched as it gets. The Blue Jays’ lack of an effective left-handed reliever against a Dodgers lineup with Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy would work decidedly in Los Angeles’ favor.
Similarly, the Mariners have difficulty hitting high-octane fastballs. Their regular-season OPS against 97-mph-plus heaters was .639 (compared to Toronto’s MLB-best .766), and while they have hit four home runs off such pitches in the postseason, they remain susceptible. In the end, whoever advances faces a juggernaut that will be heavily favored and rightfully so.
Olney: In speaking with some evaluators with other teams, there is near unanimity in the opinion that the Blue Jays would present a better challenge to L.A. because of the nature of their offense. They can put the ball in play more consistently and, of course, have Guerrero; with all due respect to all of the future Hall of Famers in the Dodgers’ lineup, Guerrero would be the most dangerous hitter in any series he played in right now.
We’ll see that in Game 7, when it seems very likely the Mariners will pitch around him just about every opportunity they have — an appropriate response when facing a guy who has more homers (six) than strikeouts (two) in the postseason.
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