MLB Awards Week predictions, results, analysis: Will Ohtani, Judge be unanimous MVPs?
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
Welcome to MLB Awards Week.
November has become awards season in baseball, which increasingly serves as a way to keep eyeballs on the game before the hot stove season ramps up. So far, we’ve gotten the Gold Glove Awards, Silver Sluggers, the All-MLB Team and more.
Now, it’s time for the biggies — the four major awards determined by Baseball Writers’ Association of America voting and that will feature prominently in baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés of the future. The winners are being announced live each night on MLB Network, starting at 6 p.m. ET.
On Monday, a pair of starting pitchers — Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Luis Gil of the New York Yankees — got the week rolling, winning the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award in the National League and American League, respectively.
On Tuesday, the 2024 Managers of the Year were named: Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians in the American League and Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League.
On Wednesday, two dominant pitchers officially claimed their Cy Young awards: Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal took home his first award, while the Atlanta Braves‘ Chris Sale put an exclamation point on his comeback season.
Here’s the rest of the week’s schedule:
Thursday: MVP Awards
Below, we list the three finalists in the remaining categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced, and who our panel of ESPN MLB experts believes should take home the hardware. Each section has been updated with news and analysis as the awards were handed out.
Jump to:
MVP: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Thursday’s awards
American League MVP
Finalists:
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Juan Soto, Yankees
Experts’ pick: Judge (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: While the outcome seems like (and almost certainly is) a no-brainer, don’t let that make you lose sight of the overall dynamic around this award. In a nutshell: This is one of the greatest MVP races ever, in terms of historically elite performances from players in the same league.
The dominant performances went beyond the finalists. Five AL players posted at least 7.9 bWAR, led by the three MVP finalists, as well as Boston’s Jarren Duran and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, who both finished with higher bWAR totals than Soto. Only once before has the AL had five players produce at that level in the same season — way back in 1912.
While Soto was never far out of the picture, this was a high-octane two-player race for most of the season between the mashing dominance of Judge and the five-tool mastery of the dynamic Witt. Judge won the bWAR battle by a good margin (10.8 to 9.4) and seemed to pull away at the end of the season. Even if you don’t like to think of this in terms of bWAR, it’s hard to look past league-leading totals of 58 homers and 144 RBIs and a third-place .322 batting average, all on the league’s best team.
The real drama surrounding this award is tied to that of the NL: Will we have two unanimous MVP picks? If so, that would be just the second time it’s happened. The first? Last year, when Shohei Ohtani (then with the Angels) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) pulled it off.
MVP must-reads:
Aaron Judge is the fastest ever to 300 home runs — but how many more will he hit?
Only Juan Soto can decide if his future is with the Yankees
Baseball’s next superstar? Bobby Witt Jr.’s rise to MLB’s top tier
National League MVP
Finalists:
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
Experts’ pick: Ohtani (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: When the DH became a part of big league baseball back in the 1970s, those who defended it tended to point out how it would allow older superstars to hang around for a few more years. Thus the default image of the DH was the aging, plodding slugger trying to generate occasional glimpses of what he used to be.
Things have changed. Ohtani did not don a baseball glove during a game this season and yet established himself as far and away the most dominant player in the National League. The numbers were staggering: .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 59 stolen bases. He scored 134 runs and drove in 130, even though 57% of his plate appearances came as the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter.
As with Judge, the intrigue isn’t about whether Ohtani will win, but whether or not he’ll be a unanimous pick. And, let’s face it, there’s not much intrigue about that, either. If Ohtani does it, it’ll be the third time he has been a unanimous selection. No one else has done it even twice.
MVP must-reads:
51 HRs AND stolen bases?! How Shohei Ohtani transformed MLB — again
Breaking down Ohtani’s path to 50/50 — and the historic game that got him there
How Francisco Lindor became the heart and soul of the Mets
Announced awards
American League Cy Young
Winner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Final tally: Skubal 210 (30 first-place votes); Seth Lugo, Royals 93; Emmanuel Clase, Guardians 66; Cole Ragans, Royals 48; Corbin Burnes, Orioles 47; Logan Gilbert, Mariners 25; Framber Valdez, Astros 17; Kirby Yates, Rangers 2; Yusei Kikuchi, Astros 1; Cade Smith, Guardians 1
Experts’ pick: Skubal (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: This was hardly a nail-biter: Skubal dominated in too many ways to be ignored. Skubal swept the AL leaderboard (18-4, 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts, 2.50 FIP, 170 ERA+), joining NL winner Chris Sale to give us two triple crown winners for only the fourth time in a full season.
Though Sale’s dominance was a return to form, for Skubal it was a matter of a long touted hurler putting it all together. Before 2024, he had never qualified for an ERA title, reached double digits in wins or made an All-Star game. Now he’s in the conversation about the best pitchers in the game right now.
By the time the postseason arrived, Skubal was virtually the last man standing on a Detroit pitching staff that was bullpenning its way to the playoffs — a plan that never would have worked without Skubal locking down one game every fifth day. He only got better as the season advanced, going 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA over his last nine regular-season outings — all this after dealing with a trade deadline during which there were whispers he might be dealt.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Skubal, Tigers (152 AXE, winner)
2. Lugo, Royals (149, finalist)
3. Ragans, Royals (139)
4. Clase, Guardians (135, finalist)
5. (tie) Garrett Crochet, White Sox (133)
Valdez, Astros (133)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.
Cy Young must-read:
It’s Tarik Skubal time: With season on the line, Tigers turn to ‘best pitcher in the world’
National League Cy Young
Winner: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Final tally: Sale 198 (26 first-place votes); Zack Wheeler, Phillies 130 (4); Paul Skenes, Pirates 53; Dylan Cease, Padres 45; Shota Imanaga, Cubs 38; Logan Webb, Giants 18, Michael King, Padres (14), Hunter Greene, Reds 5, Ryan Helsley, Cardinals 4, Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies 2, Reynaldo Lopez, Braves 1, Sean Manaea, Mets 1; Aaron Nola, Phillies 1
Experts’ pick: Sale (8 votes); Wheeler (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: A few years ago, it seemed inevitable that Sale would win a Cy Young award. From 2012 to 2018, Sale finished sixth or better in the voting in each season, peaking at second in 2017. But since he last showed up in the balloting — and through 2023 — Sale went a composite 17-18 with a 4.16 ERA. It seemed as if his window had closed. Until, revived (and healthy) in his first season with the Braves, Sale was as good as he ever was. In the end, he was an easy choice for this honor.
Though we knew the injuries had held Sale back, there was still no way to know that he’d do what he did in Atlanta in 2024: 18-3, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts, 2.09 FIP, 174 ERA+ and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. All of those totals led NL pitchers.
For Sale, this crowning achievement bolsters an eventual Hall of Fame case. But until that comes up for debate, the breakout could be the harbinger of the kind of late-career dominance that we’ve seen from other aces from his generation such as Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. That, too, will further his journey to Cooperstown.
Chris Sale is back, and he has never been better.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Chris Sale, Braves (153, winner)
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (149, finalist)
3. Paul Skenes, Pirates (143, finalist)
4. Hunter Greene, Reds (141)
5. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves (136)
Cy Young must-reads:
Did Chris Sale pitch himself into the HOF this year?
The best stuff in baseball? How Paul Skenes is using his pitches to dominate MLB
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians
Final tally: Vogt 142 (27 first-place votes); Matt Quatraro, Royals 73 (2); A.J. Hinch, Tigers 41 (1); Joe Espada, Astros 6; Aaron Boone, Yankees 3; Mark Kostay, Athletics 3; Rocco Baldelli, Twins 1; Alex Cora, Red Sox 1
Experts’ pick: Quatraro (5 votes); Hinch (3 votes); Vogt (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: Vogt did more than fill the shoes of Terry Francona — he made it seem as if he’d been leading the Guardians for years. He led a Guardians club, not expected to contend, to the AL Central title.
Vogt did this while doing managerial things that catch your eye. He leaned heavily on the game’s most dynamic bullpen to circumnavigate a slew of rotation injuries and underperformance. He also oversaw a transition in Cleveland’s collective offensive approach, which mixed in a little more slugging from the same group of hitters than had been evident before.
It’s a remarkable achievement, one recognized by a dominating showing in the balloting.
Alas, that spread in the final vote — 27 first-place votes for Vogt to two for Quatraro — is really hard to grok. The bottom line is that the Royals lost 106 games in 2023, then won 86 in 2024, a stunning turnaround, especially because it did not happen because of a sudden wave of prospects arriving at Kauffman Stadium. Quatraro is quiet, steady, consistent and a perfect fit in the lineage of successful Royals field generals. He is the epitome of what you think of when you think of someone who wins Manager of the Year.
The competition was steep. Hinch did perhaps the best managing job in a career that has been full of virtuoso performances. Vogt was fantastic. But the sheer scale of Quatraro’s accomplishment with the Royals seemed too much to overlook. Yet, it was. This was a miss by the voters.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Quatraro, Royals (105.3 EARL, finalist)
2. Vogt, Guardians (104.9, winner)
3. Kotsay, Athletics (103.9)
4. Hinch, Tigers (103.2, finalist)
5. Boone, Yankees (101.8)
Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
Final tally: Murphy 144 (27 first-place votes); Mike Shildt, Padres 70 (1); Carlos Mendoza, Mets 35 (1); Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks 8; Rob Thomson, Phillies 5 (1); Brian Snitker, Braves 4; Dave Roberts, Dodgers 3; Oliver Marmol, Cardinals 1
Experts’ pick: Murphy (6 votes); Mendoza (3 votes)
Doolittle’s take: Has there every been a comparable situation to what has happened with Murphy over the past 13 months or so?
Murphy was a decorated college coach, leading Notre Dame from 1988 to 1994, then the storied program at Arizona State from 1995 to 2009. That’s pretty good. He then entered the professional ranks and settled into a trusted whisperer role, serving as the bench coach to one of his college players, Craig Counsell, in Milwaukee.
Then Counsell, largely considered the best manager in the game, bolted for the rival Cubs, signing the most lucrative pact a skipper has ever inked. Murphy perhaps could have followed him to Wrigley Field, but instead was given the reins of a team in transition, one that was going young (or cheap) and would have entered 2024 with reduced expectations whether or not Counsell had left.
Under Murphy, the Brewers responded, winning an NL Central title by a dominating 10-game chasm. The young players — such as Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz — were integrated seamlessly. The Brewers leaned on their bullpen more than ever, even though star closer Devin Williams sat out a big chunk of the season. They adopted a more dynamic style of play.
Murphy didn’t just take part in that — he led the way, putting his stamp on the team when he could very easily have been viewed as a stand-in for the Counsell Way. He set the tone well in advance of the season, declaring that the team was going to win even as some of its most recognizable names were coming off the roster.
It has been a long time coming for Murphy, 65, but this is more than a lifetime achievement award. It’s an honor well earned. And, not for nothing, he now has one more Manager of the Year Award than Counsell.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Dave Martinez, Nationals (106.7 EARL)
2. Shildt, Padres (106.5, finalist)
3. Murphy, Brewers (106.4, winner)
4. Thomson, Phillies (104.9)
5. Mendoza, Mets (104.8, finalist)
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Luis Gil, New York Yankees
Final tally: Gil 106 (15 first-place votes); Colton Cowser, Orioles, 101 (13); Austin Wells, Yankees, 17; Mason Miller, Athletics, 16 (1); Cade Smith, Guardians, 12 (1); Wilyer Abreu; Red Sox, 11; Wyatt Langford, Rangers, 7
Experts’ pick: Gil (7 votes); Cowser (1 vote); Smith (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: This was a race in which you could have plucked the names of any of about seven players out of a hat without worry of finding a wrong answer. Of course, by the time Monday rolled around, we were down to three names in that hat, the finalists, but the statement holds true. There was no wrong answer, which is probably why the voting was so close.
With no clear front-runner, voters had to weigh some narrative aspects alongside a muddy statistical leaderboard, one that gave different answers depending on which site you happened to pull up. That’s why AXE exists — to create a consensus from these different systems — but it didn’t do much to clarify the AL rookie derby.
Gil and Wells, both essential rookie contributors to the Yankees’ run to the World Series, excelled with a lot of eyeballs on them all season, and that certainly didn’t hurt their support. Cowser’s role as an every-day player for the playoff-bound Orioles also had a high-visibility context. It feels like that, as much as anything, is why this trio emerged as finalists in a hard-to-separate field.
The emergence of Gil and the gaps he filled in an injury-depleted Yankees rotation were too much to ignore. It was a surprising emergence: Gil is 26, and he debuted in professional baseball way back in 2015 as a 17-year-old in the Minnesota organization. But when you talk about impact, you can conjure up all sorts of ill scenarios for New York had he not led AL rookies with 15 wins, 141 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA (minimum 10 starts).
The voters got it right, if only because they could not possibly have gotten it wrong.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Smith, Guardians (117 AXE)
2. Langford, Rangers (116)
3. (tie) Miller, Athletics (115)
Abreu, Red Sox (115)
Gil, Yankees (115, winner)
6. Wells, Yankees (113, finalist)
7. Cowser, Orioles (111, finalist)
ROY must-read:
Bump in the road or ominous sign: Has Luis Gil hit a wall after his red-hot start?
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Final tally: Skenes 136 (23 first-place votes); Jackson Merrill, Padres, 104 (7); Jackson Chourio, Brewers, 26; Shota Imanaga, Cubs, 4
Experts’ pick: Skenes (8 votes); Merrill (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: Skenes emerged as the winner of a star-studded NL rookie class that was deep in impact performances put up by high-upside prospects who should only get better as the years progress. It was also a classic debate, one that stirs the passions whether you are driven by traditional approaches or the most current of performance metrics: Can a starting pitcher really produce more value than a position player given the disparity in games played?
It’s a debate mostly settled in the MVP races, where pitchers only occasionally bob up to forefront of the conversation. The one in the NL Rookie of the Year race this season between Skenes, Merrill and, to a lesser extent, Chourio was a classic example.
Sure, Skenes was absolutely dominant; he’s a finalist in the NL Cy Young race, for goodness sake. Still, we’re talking about 23 games. Meanwhile, Merrill’s gifts were on display in 156 contests for the Padres, while Chourio played in 148 games for Milwaukee. Yes, the value metrics are supposed to clarify these comparisons, but, still, how do you weigh that kind of disparity between players with entirely different jobs?
In the end, I’m not sure there’s a right answer to that debate, nor is there a wrong answer to this balloting. Each of the finalists would have been a slam-dunk winner in many seasons. Skenes might very well be the best pitcher in baseball by the time we get to these discussions a year from now, if he isn’t already. In less than a year and a half, he has been the top overall pick in the draft, started an All-Star Game and become a finalist in two of the NL’s major postseason awards.
You can certainly makes cases for Merrill and Chourio. But you can’t really make a case against Skenes, 23 games or not. Since earned runs became official in 1913, Skenes became the fourth pitcher with a strikeout rate of at least 11 per nine innings while posting an ERA under 2. He’s just that much of an outlier.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Skenes, Pirates (131 AXE, winner)
2. Merrill, Padres (128, finalist)
3. Chourio, Brewers (123, finalist)
4. Masyn Winn, Cardinals (119)
5. Imanaga, Cubs (117)
ROY must-reads:
Why Pirates called up Paul Skenes now — and why he could be MLB’s next great ace
Ranking MLB’s best rookies: Is Paul Skenes or an outfielder named Jackson No. 1?
Earlier awards
Executive of the Year: Brewers president Matt Arnold named exec of the year
Doolittle’s take: I’ve written a couple of times this year that I think the Brewers might be the best-run organization in baseball right now, so that speaks to how I view the work of Arnold and his staff. I also have a kind of organizational mash-up metric I track during the season that considers things such as injuries, rookie contribution, payroll efficiency and in-season acquisitions, and Milwaukee topped that leaderboard.
And yet it’s somewhat stunning that Kansas City’s J.J. Picollo did not win this honor. He oversaw the team’s leap from 106 losses to the playoffs, using free agency to bolster the roster and staying proactive at the trade deadline (and the August waiver period) to provide essential upgrades that put the Royals over the top. It’s hard to do a better one-season job as a baseball ops chief than what Picollo did this season.
All-MLB: 2024 All-MLB First and Second Team winners
Doolittle’s take: Nobody asked me about these picks, but they read as if they did. I had the same first team. On the second team, I might have opted for Matt Chapman over Manny Machado at third base, but if that’s my one note, the selectors did a heck of a job. Or maybe I did.
Gold Gloves: Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. among 14 first-time Gold Glove winners
Doolittle’s take: For all the uncertainty in making defensive picks, the consensus defensive metric I used more or less mirrored the Gold Glove selections. I would have taken Chourio or Washington’s Jacob Young as one of the NL’s outfielders in place of Ian Happ.
What happened in Week 13? We are now down to one undefeated FBS team following No. 5 Indiana‘s loss to No. 2 Ohio State and No. 19 Army’s loss to No. 6 Notre Dame. On top of that, four ranked teams fell to their unranked opponents on Saturday.
With No. 16 Colorado’s loss to Kansas and No. 14 BYU falling to No. 21 Arizona State, the Big 12 has a four-way tie at the top of the standings. What does each team have to do next week to reach the conference title game?
After their defense dominated the Hoosiers at Ohio Stadium, the Buckeyes have one more conference matchup left. What do they need to do to meet Oregon in the Big Ten title game?
How did Saturday’s action affect our Power Rankings?
Here’s the latest top 25 from our college football experts, who provide their insight on each team following Week 13.
Previous ranking: 1
Oregon’s second bye week of the year is as good a time as any to recognize not just how the Ducks have gotten to 11-0, but how far the offensive line specifically has come since the first few weeks of the season. In its first two games, Oregon’s offensive line gave up seven sacks. Over the past nine games, it has kept quarterback Dillon Gabriel upright, allowing only five sacks total. The improvement began in the Ducks’ third game against UCLA, when they shifted Iapani Laloulu to starting center. Lalolulu, a sophomore from Hawaii, has anchored the unit. Per Pro Football Focus, Laloulu has not allowed a sack in 270 pass blocking snaps.
The move and subsequent improvement has both limited the number of sacks and quarterback pressures, but beyond that, it has facilitated the Ducks’ running game. In the first two games of the season, they averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry. Since then, they have averaged over 5 and have 20 rushing touchdowns total. It has all added up to one of the most effective offenses in the country, an undefeated season so far and a potent recipe as Oregon heads toward a conference championship and playoff run. — Paolo Uggetti
Previous ranking: 2
The Buckeyes (10-1) have upped their blitz rate since their 32-31 loss to Oregon on Oct. 12. They didn’t get a single sack against Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who threw for 341 yards while averaging a whopping 9.6 yards per dropback. Since then, they have overwhelmed opposing quarterbacks. During Saturday’s resounding 38-15 win over Indiana, Ohio State sacked quarterback Kurtis Rourke five times. Off the blitz, linebacker Cody Simon especially wreaked havoc, finishing with 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble. With little time to throw, most notably in obvious passing situations, Rourke completed just 8 of his 18 attempts for 68 yards. If the Buckeyes take care of Michigan, they’ll get a rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. There, they’ll be sure to unleash the blitz in a way they didn’t in Eugene. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 3
The Longhorns (10-1) have consecutive 10-win seasons for the first time since 2008-09, accomplished in both the Big 12 and the SEC. But this team hasn’t been all flash. The Longhorns have been able to adapt to whatever form necessary to keep winning, aside from their loss to Georgia this year. On Saturday, Quintrevion Wisner had a career-high 158 yards rushing, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. But the biggest difference this season has been the pass defense. Last year, Texas allowed 254.4 yards per game through the air, and this year, they have cut that to just 143.5 per game, ranking No. 1 in the nation.
The pass rush has helped quite a bit. Against Kentucky, the Longhorns pressured Brock Vandagriff and Cutter Boley on 14 of their 31 dropbacks. The Longhorns have a big one next week, traveling to College Station to renew their rivalry with Texas A&M (whom they haven’t played since 2011), with a spot in the SEC championship game for the winner. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 9
The Irish won their ninth straight game Saturday night with a 49-7 blowout of previously unbeaten Army at Yankee Stadium. Since that forgettable 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois on Sept. 7, Notre Dame (10-1) has been better at a little bit of everything and looks to be a lock for the playoff if it can finish out the regular season with a win over USC. The Irish have improved across the board on defense after giving up nearly 400 yards to Northern Illinois, and they clamped down on Army’s running game.
The Black Knights came into the game leading the country in rushing (334.9 yards per game), but Bryson Daily could never get on track. The Irish haven’t played what you would call a killer schedule since the loss in Week 2 but have won every game but one by double digits. Running back Jeremiyah Love continues to be a key weapon for the Irish. He scored two more rushing touchdowns, including a 68-yarder, and has 14 on the season. — Chris Low
Previous ranking: 5
Tyler Warren had a touchdown catch in Penn State’s (10-1) season-opening win at West Virginia, but the tight end extraordinaire wasn’t the focal point of the Nittany Lions’ offense right away. He had 50 receiving yards or fewer in four of the team’s first five games before his record-setting performance Oct. 12 at USC, when he set career highs for receptions (17) and receiving yards (224). Since then, Warren has been the centerpiece of Penn State’s offense. He has seven or more receptions in four of Penn State’s past five games, while taking on a bigger role in the run game as well.
In Penn State’s 26-25 win over Minnesota on Saturday, Warren led the team with eight receptions for 102 yards, including an 11-yard reception on fourth-and-1 that allowed the Nittany Lions to run out the clock and keep their CFP hopes firmly intact. He continues to provide quarterback Drew Allar with a reliable option and offset PSU’s limitations at wide receiver. Warren and Bowling Green’s Harold Fannin Jr. are the top two candidates for the Mackey Award (given to the top tight end in the nation). — Adam Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 8
The Bulldogs (9-2) might have been a popular pick to reach the SEC championship game before the season, but their route in getting back to Atlanta has been far more difficult than it was the past few seasons. Injuries along the offensive line and at tailback resulted in a mediocre running game, putting more pressure on quarterback Carson Beck. He had 12 interceptions in a six-game stretch and played poorly in the first half of a loss at Alabama and another loss at Ole Miss. Beck has played efficiently and avoided big mistakes in Georgia’s past two victories over Tennessee and UMass.
After All-America guard Tate Ratledge returned, the offensive line has provided enough protection (one sack in the past two games), and the Bulldogs are running the ball again. Georgia’s tight ends have also stepped up, and freshman tailback Nate Frazier looks like a star. If Georgia beats Georgia Tech at home Friday night, it should be back in the CFP, regardless of what happens against the Texas-Texas A&M winner in the SEC championship game. — Mark Schlabach
Previous ranking: 10
Cam Ward has dazzled for the majority of the season, starting with the opener against Florida. But where Miami (10-1) has improved the most is building depth in its running back room, and that showed in a 42-14 win over Wake Forest. The Hurricanes added freshman Jordan Lyle to the mix with Damien Martinez and Mark Fletcher Jr. Lyle had seven carries for 115 yards and a score, while Martinez added 63 yards and Fletcher 55. Miami rushed for 228 yards and a whopping 7.1 yards per carry. Ward added 280 yards passing, showing the type of balance Miami wants but has not achieved consistently. Up next is a Syracuse team that has struggled to stop the run this season. A win clinches a spot for the Hurricanes in the ACC championship game. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 13
Kevin Jennings and the offense were dominant again, and SMU’s emphatic win at Virginia offered the latest statement that the Mustangs aren’t just ACC upstarts, but the genuine favorite in the conference and a legitimate playoff team. SMU (10-1) is one of just eight remaining undefeated or one-loss teams in the Power 4, and since Jennings took over as the starting QB, the Mustangs are 8-0 and averaging 41 points per game. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 12
While SEC (and CFP) rivals Ole Miss and Alabama were suffering upset losses, Tennessee benefited by simply handling its business against UTEP in a 56-0 win. Nico Iamaleava overcame a slow start — three punts in the first three drives — to complete 17 of 23 passes for 209 yards and four touchdowns, including Bru McCoy‘s first two touchdown catches of the season. Iamaleava was nearly perfect as the Volunteers unleashed a 28-0 second quarter to salt the game away. Tennessee’s offense hasn’t averaged over 5.8 yards per play in an SEC game all season but cruised along at 6.8 against the outmanned Miners, and after finding themselves on the outside looking in with this week’s CFP rankings, the Vols should be comfortably in the field of 12 when the rankings are updated Tuesday. — Connelly
Previous ranking: 4
Even though Indiana got routed by Ohio State 38-15 on Saturday, the Hoosiers have continued to impress with their red zone defense. In the first half at Ohio Stadium, Indiana allowed just one touchdown on three Ohio State possessions in the red zone. The Hoosiers stuffed Quinshon Judkins on fourth-and-1 from the Indiana 2-yard line.
Later, D’Angelo Ponds broke up a pass, which landed in the arms of Jailin Walker for an interception at the Hoosiers’ 11, thwarting another Ohio State scoring opportunity. Those plays kept Indiana in the game through halftime, even though its offense gained just 53 yards, the Hoosiers’ lowest first-half total in a decade. In Indiana’s previous game, it allowed Michigan to score just one touchdown on three red zone chances. The Hoosiers are now in the top half of the Big Ten in red zone defensive efficiency. — Trotter
Previous ranking: 11
For all of the attention Ashton Jeanty and Boise State’s offense gets, there isn’t much discussed about the Broncos’ defense. When the season began, there wasn’t much to praise on that side of the ball. Opponents scored over 30 points in three of the first five games, and Boise State allowed over 400 yards three times. Over the past five games, however, the unit has shown slight yet important improvements. No team has scored more than 24 points on the Broncos (10-1), and they’ve held teams under 350 yards three separate times. Spencer Danielson’s team has shown time and time again that it can win shootouts. All they need is for the defense to be serviceable and do enough to allow their offense to win games. In the back half of the season, the Broncos have done just that. — Uggetti
Previous ranking: 20
The Sun Devils (9-2) are one of the hottest teams in the country, and a trip to the Big 12 title game (and even the CFP) is now within reach following their dramatic 28-23 win over BYU. They’ve won four in a row ever since Sam Leavitt came back from his rib injury. We’re watching the redshirt freshman blossom into one of the best young QBs in the FBS on a weekly basis. Leavitt has the second-best QBR in the Big 12 over the past month (83.8) (behind only Shedeur Sanders) and is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt with a 10-1 TD-INT ratio. He’s taking care of the football and playing his best at the best possible time. — Max Olson
Previous ranking: 19
The Tigers picked a good week to play an FCS team. While chaos ruled the day around them, Clemson took care of business with a 51-14 win over The Citadel behind three touchdown passes by Cade Klubnik. The Tigers are now 9-2, marking their 14th straight season of nine wins or more. More importantly, the losses around them in the top 25 leave the door wide open for a playoff berth. A win next week against South Carolina would offer a signature victory over the SEC — home of the majority of the teams Clemson would be judged against. A Miami loss next week would also push the Tigers into the ACC title game, which could be either a blessing or a curse at this point. — Hale
Previous ranking: 6
It’s difficult to pull many positives after the Crimson Tide’s crushing stumble at Oklahoma in Week 13, but a once-vulnerable Alabama secondary that Georgia tore up for 439 passing yards on Sept. 28 has steadily improved over the course of the season. The Sooners’ success on the ground — and the overall state of their passing game — meant there wasn’t much work for the Crimson Tide defensive backs in Saturday’s 24-3 defeat.
While the secondary remains the weak link in Alabama’s defense, the unit anchored by Malachi Moore and Domani Jackson was strong enough to keep a lid on LSU’s passing attack on Nov. 9, and the Crimson Tide (8-3) entered the weekend ranked 18th among FBS defenses in pass defense (181.2 yards per game) after holding four of their past five opponents below 200 passing yards. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: 7
All Ole Miss had to do was beat Florida and Mississippi State, and Lane Kiffin’s Rebels would have likely secured their first College Football Playoff bid. Instead, they became the second straight ranked team to fall in the Swamp, suffering a 24-17 defeat. Jaxson Dart threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns, but he lost the plot late, throwing two bad interceptions; his 22-yard scoring strike to Cayden Lee with 9:05 left in the second quarter turned out to be the Rebels’ last touchdown of the day. Ole Miss (8-3) scored just three points in its last eight drives. There was enough chaos elsewhere that the Rebels’ playoff hopes aren’t completely dusted, but they’re going to need some more chaos over Rivalry Week to have a chance. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 18
With the CFP bubble getting a lot weirder, and a couple of key conference mates joining the pile of three-loss teams on Saturday, South Carolina, 18th in the CFP rankings, got a breather with a 56-12 win over Wofford. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers overcame an early interception to go 23-for-27 for 307 yards and three touchdowns, and he added 53 rushing yards and another score. Dalevon Campbell caught five passes for 120 yards, and 12 different receivers caught at least one pass. The Gamecocks (8-3) gained 608 yards with 34 first downs, and while this was obviously an FCS opponent, the improvement of South Carolina’s offense has been a consistent storyline over the second half of the season. Even with the SEC’s Saturday upsets, they might not have a particularly realistic path toward the CFP, but their hopes aren’t completely dead yet, either. — Connelly
Previous ranking: 22
The Cyclones (9-2) didn’t crack 90 rushing yards in either of their first two games this fall and have emerged as an effective complement to the Big 12’s fifth-ranked passing attack. Sophomore rusher Carson Hansen upped his touchdown tally this fall to 11 with another pair of scores at Utah on Saturday, including his go-ahead, 3-yard touchdown with 1:31 remaining in a 31-28 road win that got dicey late for the Cyclones. Iowa State’s run game remains middle of the pack in the Big 12, but the Cyclones leaned on the program’s ground attack heavily in conference wins over Baylor (265 rushing yards) and UCF (256), and Hansen has emerged as a red zone weapon with seven of his 11 touchdowns coming from inside the 5-yard line. — Lederman
Previous ranking: 21
The Green Wave offensive line allowed eight sacks across a pair of September losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma. Since then, Tulane quarterbacks have been sacked just six times during the eight-game winning streak that vaulted the Green Wave (9-2) to No. 20 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings coming off of an idle weekend. Tulane is buoyed by one of the Group of 5’s rising stars in freshman quarterback Darian Mensah and the AAC’s leading rusher in Makhi Hughes. And both are succeeding this fall with the help of an offensive line that enters the final weekend of the regular season ranked 25th in sacks allowed while powering the nation’s 10th-ranked rushing attack. — Lederman
Previous ranking: 14
The Cougars (9-2) played a dangerous game for weeks and their luck has caught up with them having now suffered back-to-back losses with a 28-23 loss at Arizona State on Saturday. The defeat leaves BYU as one of four two-loss teams in the Big 12 and it no longer controls its destiny, as it would not reach the title game if both ASU and Iowa State win next week. After falling behind 21-0 to ASU, the Cougars played much better, but their Hail Mary fell two yards shy of the end zone, which could be the difference between a second-tier bowl game and a College Football Playoff appearance. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 15
The Aggies (8-3) lost a heartbreaker on the road at Auburn, with the first drop of Amari Daniels‘ season coming on the last play of the game, as the ball bounced off his hands in overtime in the end zone. It was improbable in many other ways: It marked Auburn’s first win in 15 tries against an AP-ranked team and the first overtime loss by the Aggies after winning seven straight.
The Aggies found some rhythm in their passing game (Marcel Reed was 22-of-35 for 297 yards and a career-high three TDs, adding 66 rushing yards), but the Aggies’ defense imploded, giving up 43 points to a Tigers team that hadn’t scored more than 24 in SEC play this season. The loss is a blow to hopes the Aggies had of reaching the College Football Playoff, but Alabama’s loss means the Aggies can still reach the SEC championship game with a win over Texas next weekend, leaving the door cracked for them to play their way back in. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 24
The Rebels (9-2) can wrap up a 10-win regular season with a win against Nevada next week and would qualify for the Mountain West title game against Boise State in the process. If UNLV loses to Nevada and CSU wins, then it would go to a computer tiebreaker. Beyond the conference title, the Rebels are still in play for the playoff. If they win the Mountain West and finish ranked ahead of the AAC champion in the final CFP rankings, then the Broncos would be in. The early-season QB drama seems so long ago now as UNLV is on pace to finish with one of its best seasons in school history. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 16
It was Army’s first loss of the season and a lopsided one, as Notre Dame outmanned the Black Knights 49-14 on Saturday in Yankee Stadium. Afterward, Army coach Jeff Monken said it would be unfair to judge his team on that one game and he was proud of the way his team had continued to progress in all areas. Army had one turnover against Notre Dame but has been terrific at taking care of the ball this season.
The defense couldn’t stop Notre Dame, but the goal-line stand in the first half was indicative of the way Army has fought on defense this season. The Black Knights (9-1) still have a lot to play for. They face UTSA on Saturday and then Tulane the following weekend in the AAC championship game and of course rival Navy in the finale. — Low
Previous ranking: 25
The offense started with a pair of three-and-outs, but a 28-7 run resulted in a comfortable 39-20 win for Missouri at Mississippi State. It was the Tigers’ first win over the Bulldogs in three tries since joining the SEC in 2012, and it moved them to 8-3 for the season. Brady Cook completed 15 of 20 passes for 268 yards and a touchdown, and after gaining under 300 yards for two straight games while Cook was battling injury, the offense followed up on last week’s 381-yard effort by gaining 472 against MSU. The difference? Big plays. Cook completed five passes of 28 yards or more, and to four different receivers. The Tigers are still out of the playoff picture, but they have a chance to finish 9-3 with a Battle Line Rivalry win over Arkansas on Saturday. — Connelly
Previous ranking: NR
Coach Bret Bielema’s teams always have been known for running the ball, but Illinois (8-3) showed other strengths for much of the season before returning to its roots down the stretch. The Illini ran for 182 yards and three touchdowns in Saturday’s 38-31 road win against Rutgers, marking their second straight game with three rushing scores and third in the past six contests. Other than the loss to Penn State, when Illinois finished with 34 net rushing yards, the Illini have averaged 158.3 rushing yards in their other seven Big Ten games. Quarterback Luke Altmyer and running backs Josh McCray and Aidan Laughery all found the end zone at Rutgers, as Illinois averaged 5.1 yards per carry. The Illini aren’t the elite run outfit that Bielema frequently had at Wisconsin, but they provide enough on the ground to balance out a passing attack led by wideout Pat Bryant, who had 197 receiving yards and the game-winning touchdown with four seconds to play. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 17
The Buffaloes’ defense showed so much progress under new defensive coordinator Robert Livingston throughout this season, but they had no answers for stopping Devin Neal and Kansas in their 37-21 loss in Kansas City. Colorado (8-3) had held every opponent on its schedule under 200 rushing yards — and gave up just 31 yards vs. Utah last week — until the resurgent Jayhawks burned them for 331 yards on 57 carries, with Neal surpassing 200 all by himself. Deion Sanders believes it was an uncharacteristic performance for his defense in every way. They can prove it was a fluke by slowing down Ollie Gordon II and the Oklahoma State Cowboys in their regular-season finale on Friday. — Olson
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Eli Lederman, ESPN Staff Writer
NORMAN, Okla. — Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer lamented his team’s “uncharacteristic” mistakes in the aftermath of a 24-3 loss to Oklahoma on Saturday night that dealt a significant blow to the Crimson Tide’s College Football Playoff hopes.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe threw three interceptions, and the Crimson Tide (8-3, 4-3 SEC) never shook off a slow start against an Oklahoma defense that held them to a season-low 70 rushing yards.
Meanwhile, the Sooners (6-5, 2-5) — relying on the legs of quarterback Jackson Arnold and freshman running back Xavier Robinson — gashed Alabama for 257 rushing yards on their way to sealing bowl eligibility for a 26th consecutive season.
The Crimson Tide have three losses for the first time since 2010.
Alabama began Week 13 in line to reach the SEC title game on Dec. 7 with wins over Oklahoma then Auburn during the final two weeks of the regular season. Instead, the Crimson Tide’s road stumble helped No. 10 Georgia clinch a spot in the conference championship and left Alabama’s path into the CFP on shaky ground. Even if the Tide beat the Tigers in the Iron Bowl next weekend, Alabama will need plenty of help in order to land a spot in the 12-team playoff field.
Following the program’s lowest-scoring performance since 2004, DeBoer focused on the Tide’s early errors in a game he said “got away” from them after halftime.
“We got to be better in all ways,” DeBoer said. “Some simple things, uncharacteristic things, happened early in the game where we didn’t get the momentum on our side. And really, it comes down to the end of the first half [with] them scoring a touchdown and the turnovers really kind of changing the momentum of the game there.”
It was a particularly rough night for Milroe. The junior went 11-for-26 for 164 yards passing and managed just 7 yards rushing on 15 attempts. Alabama trailed 10-3 early in the third quarter when Oklahoma cornerback Eli Bowen intercepted Milroe, setting up Robinson’s second touchdown run of the game four plays later. The Sooners’ lead grew to 24-3 on the ensuing possession after linebacker Kip Lewis jumped Milroe’s throw to tight end Robbie Ouzts and returned it 49 yards for a score.
Oklahoma’s 21-point advantage marked Alabama’s largest deficit against an unranked opponent since 2003. The Tide picked up only five first downs and 80 yards total after Milroe’s back-to-back picks. He became the first Alabama quarterback to throw three interceptions in a game since 2015 on Woodi Washington‘s game-sealing pick with 6:53 remaining in the contest.
While Milroe struggled, DeBoer saw wider problems in an offense that never recovered from a sloppy first half, which included punts on three of the Tide’s first four possessions.
“I think stepping back, it just felt like early in the game there were different things — drops, balls we lost in the lights — different, uncharacteristic things. Weird things that happened,” DeBoer said. “I thought [Milroe] was actually putting the ball where he needed to. We just needed to help him out a little bit.”
Sooners coach Brent Venables said Oklahoma was the more “physical football team,” and his offense proved it with 205 first-half rushing yards that marked the most Alabama has allowed in a half since 2007. The Tide continued to struggle against the Sooners’ rushing attack after halftime without linebacker Deontae Lawson. Alabama’s second-leading tackler was ruled out for the remainder of the game after exiting with a lower body injury in the second quarter.
DeBoer did not provide an update on Lawson’s status following the game.
“Anytime you lose a great player like Deontae, it’s going to affect you,” DeBoer said. “His leadership. He’s the guy who makes a lot of the calls on the field. Just seems like he’s always in control.”
The stunning defeat leaves the Tide’s postseason hopes in a precarious position entering the final week of the regular season. With those playoff aspirations no longer in Alabama’s control ahead of an Iron Bowl visit from the Tigers, its quarterback was focused on moving forward.
“It’s all about finish,” Milroe said late Saturday night. “We’ve got to finish. There’s so much left for the football season. We’ve got to get everyone together to have a like-mindedness and just keep on competing. Every opportunity that we have, we’ve just got to seize it.”
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