MLB Awards Week predictions, results, analysis: Will Ohtani, Judge be unanimous MVPs?
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
Welcome to MLB Awards Week.
November has become awards season in baseball, which increasingly serves as a way to keep eyeballs on the game before the hot stove season ramps up. So far, we’ve gotten the Gold Glove Awards, Silver Sluggers, the All-MLB Team and more.
Now, it’s time for the biggies — the four major awards determined by Baseball Writers’ Association of America voting and that will feature prominently in baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés of the future. The winners are being announced live each night on MLB Network, starting at 6 p.m. ET.
On Monday, a pair of starting pitchers — Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Luis Gil of the New York Yankees — got the week rolling, winning the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award in the National League and American League, respectively.
On Tuesday, the 2024 Managers of the Year were named: Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians in the American League and Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League.
On Wednesday, two dominant pitchers officially claimed their Cy Young awards: Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal took home his first award, while the Atlanta Braves‘ Chris Sale put an exclamation point on his comeback season.
Here’s the rest of the week’s schedule:
Thursday: MVP Awards
Below, we list the three finalists in the remaining categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced, and who our panel of ESPN MLB experts believes should take home the hardware. Each section has been updated with news and analysis as the awards were handed out.
Jump to:
MVP: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
Thursday’s awards
American League MVP
Finalists:
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Juan Soto, Yankees
Experts’ pick: Judge (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: While the outcome seems like (and almost certainly is) a no-brainer, don’t let that make you lose sight of the overall dynamic around this award. In a nutshell: This is one of the greatest MVP races ever, in terms of historically elite performances from players in the same league.
The dominant performances went beyond the finalists. Five AL players posted at least 7.9 bWAR, led by the three MVP finalists, as well as Boston’s Jarren Duran and Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson, who both finished with higher bWAR totals than Soto. Only once before has the AL had five players produce at that level in the same season — way back in 1912.
While Soto was never far out of the picture, this was a high-octane two-player race for most of the season between the mashing dominance of Judge and the five-tool mastery of the dynamic Witt. Judge won the bWAR battle by a good margin (10.8 to 9.4) and seemed to pull away at the end of the season. Even if you don’t like to think of this in terms of bWAR, it’s hard to look past league-leading totals of 58 homers and 144 RBIs and a third-place .322 batting average, all on the league’s best team.
The real drama surrounding this award is tied to that of the NL: Will we have two unanimous MVP picks? If so, that would be just the second time it’s happened. The first? Last year, when Shohei Ohtani (then with the Angels) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (Braves) pulled it off.
MVP must-reads:
Aaron Judge is the fastest ever to 300 home runs — but how many more will he hit?
Only Juan Soto can decide if his future is with the Yankees
Baseball’s next superstar? Bobby Witt Jr.’s rise to MLB’s top tier
National League MVP
Finalists:
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
Experts’ pick: Ohtani (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: When the DH became a part of big league baseball back in the 1970s, those who defended it tended to point out how it would allow older superstars to hang around for a few more years. Thus the default image of the DH was the aging, plodding slugger trying to generate occasional glimpses of what he used to be.
Things have changed. Ohtani did not don a baseball glove during a game this season and yet established himself as far and away the most dominant player in the National League. The numbers were staggering: .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 59 stolen bases. He scored 134 runs and drove in 130, even though 57% of his plate appearances came as the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter.
As with Judge, the intrigue isn’t about whether Ohtani will win, but whether or not he’ll be a unanimous pick. And, let’s face it, there’s not much intrigue about that, either. If Ohtani does it, it’ll be the third time he has been a unanimous selection. No one else has done it even twice.
MVP must-reads:
51 HRs AND stolen bases?! How Shohei Ohtani transformed MLB — again
Breaking down Ohtani’s path to 50/50 — and the historic game that got him there
How Francisco Lindor became the heart and soul of the Mets
Announced awards
American League Cy Young
Winner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Final tally: Skubal 210 (30 first-place votes); Seth Lugo, Royals 93; Emmanuel Clase, Guardians 66; Cole Ragans, Royals 48; Corbin Burnes, Orioles 47; Logan Gilbert, Mariners 25; Framber Valdez, Astros 17; Kirby Yates, Rangers 2; Yusei Kikuchi, Astros 1; Cade Smith, Guardians 1
Experts’ pick: Skubal (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: This was hardly a nail-biter: Skubal dominated in too many ways to be ignored. Skubal swept the AL leaderboard (18-4, 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts, 2.50 FIP, 170 ERA+), joining NL winner Chris Sale to give us two triple crown winners for only the fourth time in a full season.
Though Sale’s dominance was a return to form, for Skubal it was a matter of a long touted hurler putting it all together. Before 2024, he had never qualified for an ERA title, reached double digits in wins or made an All-Star game. Now he’s in the conversation about the best pitchers in the game right now.
By the time the postseason arrived, Skubal was virtually the last man standing on a Detroit pitching staff that was bullpenning its way to the playoffs — a plan that never would have worked without Skubal locking down one game every fifth day. He only got better as the season advanced, going 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA over his last nine regular-season outings — all this after dealing with a trade deadline during which there were whispers he might be dealt.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Skubal, Tigers (152 AXE, winner)
2. Lugo, Royals (149, finalist)
3. Ragans, Royals (139)
4. Clase, Guardians (135, finalist)
5. (tie) Garrett Crochet, White Sox (133)
Valdez, Astros (133)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.
Cy Young must-read:
It’s Tarik Skubal time: With season on the line, Tigers turn to ‘best pitcher in the world’
National League Cy Young
Winner: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Final tally: Sale 198 (26 first-place votes); Zack Wheeler, Phillies 130 (4); Paul Skenes, Pirates 53; Dylan Cease, Padres 45; Shota Imanaga, Cubs 38; Logan Webb, Giants 18, Michael King, Padres (14), Hunter Greene, Reds 5, Ryan Helsley, Cardinals 4, Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies 2, Reynaldo Lopez, Braves 1, Sean Manaea, Mets 1; Aaron Nola, Phillies 1
Experts’ pick: Sale (8 votes); Wheeler (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: A few years ago, it seemed inevitable that Sale would win a Cy Young award. From 2012 to 2018, Sale finished sixth or better in the voting in each season, peaking at second in 2017. But since he last showed up in the balloting — and through 2023 — Sale went a composite 17-18 with a 4.16 ERA. It seemed as if his window had closed. Until, revived (and healthy) in his first season with the Braves, Sale was as good as he ever was. In the end, he was an easy choice for this honor.
Though we knew the injuries had held Sale back, there was still no way to know that he’d do what he did in Atlanta in 2024: 18-3, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts, 2.09 FIP, 174 ERA+ and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. All of those totals led NL pitchers.
For Sale, this crowning achievement bolsters an eventual Hall of Fame case. But until that comes up for debate, the breakout could be the harbinger of the kind of late-career dominance that we’ve seen from other aces from his generation such as Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. That, too, will further his journey to Cooperstown.
Chris Sale is back, and he has never been better.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Chris Sale, Braves (153, winner)
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (149, finalist)
3. Paul Skenes, Pirates (143, finalist)
4. Hunter Greene, Reds (141)
5. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves (136)
Cy Young must-reads:
Did Chris Sale pitch himself into the HOF this year?
The best stuff in baseball? How Paul Skenes is using his pitches to dominate MLB
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians
Final tally: Vogt 142 (27 first-place votes); Matt Quatraro, Royals 73 (2); A.J. Hinch, Tigers 41 (1); Joe Espada, Astros 6; Aaron Boone, Yankees 3; Mark Kostay, Athletics 3; Rocco Baldelli, Twins 1; Alex Cora, Red Sox 1
Experts’ pick: Quatraro (5 votes); Hinch (3 votes); Vogt (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: Vogt did more than fill the shoes of Terry Francona — he made it seem as if he’d been leading the Guardians for years. He led a Guardians club, not expected to contend, to the AL Central title.
Vogt did this while doing managerial things that catch your eye. He leaned heavily on the game’s most dynamic bullpen to circumnavigate a slew of rotation injuries and underperformance. He also oversaw a transition in Cleveland’s collective offensive approach, which mixed in a little more slugging from the same group of hitters than had been evident before.
It’s a remarkable achievement, one recognized by a dominating showing in the balloting.
Alas, that spread in the final vote — 27 first-place votes for Vogt to two for Quatraro — is really hard to grok. The bottom line is that the Royals lost 106 games in 2023, then won 86 in 2024, a stunning turnaround, especially because it did not happen because of a sudden wave of prospects arriving at Kauffman Stadium. Quatraro is quiet, steady, consistent and a perfect fit in the lineage of successful Royals field generals. He is the epitome of what you think of when you think of someone who wins Manager of the Year.
The competition was steep. Hinch did perhaps the best managing job in a career that has been full of virtuoso performances. Vogt was fantastic. But the sheer scale of Quatraro’s accomplishment with the Royals seemed too much to overlook. Yet, it was. This was a miss by the voters.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Quatraro, Royals (105.3 EARL, finalist)
2. Vogt, Guardians (104.9, winner)
3. Kotsay, Athletics (103.9)
4. Hinch, Tigers (103.2, finalist)
5. Boone, Yankees (101.8)
Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
Final tally: Murphy 144 (27 first-place votes); Mike Shildt, Padres 70 (1); Carlos Mendoza, Mets 35 (1); Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks 8; Rob Thomson, Phillies 5 (1); Brian Snitker, Braves 4; Dave Roberts, Dodgers 3; Oliver Marmol, Cardinals 1
Experts’ pick: Murphy (6 votes); Mendoza (3 votes)
Doolittle’s take: Has there every been a comparable situation to what has happened with Murphy over the past 13 months or so?
Murphy was a decorated college coach, leading Notre Dame from 1988 to 1994, then the storied program at Arizona State from 1995 to 2009. That’s pretty good. He then entered the professional ranks and settled into a trusted whisperer role, serving as the bench coach to one of his college players, Craig Counsell, in Milwaukee.
Then Counsell, largely considered the best manager in the game, bolted for the rival Cubs, signing the most lucrative pact a skipper has ever inked. Murphy perhaps could have followed him to Wrigley Field, but instead was given the reins of a team in transition, one that was going young (or cheap) and would have entered 2024 with reduced expectations whether or not Counsell had left.
Under Murphy, the Brewers responded, winning an NL Central title by a dominating 10-game chasm. The young players — such as Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz — were integrated seamlessly. The Brewers leaned on their bullpen more than ever, even though star closer Devin Williams sat out a big chunk of the season. They adopted a more dynamic style of play.
Murphy didn’t just take part in that — he led the way, putting his stamp on the team when he could very easily have been viewed as a stand-in for the Counsell Way. He set the tone well in advance of the season, declaring that the team was going to win even as some of its most recognizable names were coming off the roster.
It has been a long time coming for Murphy, 65, but this is more than a lifetime achievement award. It’s an honor well earned. And, not for nothing, he now has one more Manager of the Year Award than Counsell.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Dave Martinez, Nationals (106.7 EARL)
2. Shildt, Padres (106.5, finalist)
3. Murphy, Brewers (106.4, winner)
4. Thomson, Phillies (104.9)
5. Mendoza, Mets (104.8, finalist)
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Luis Gil, New York Yankees
Final tally: Gil 106 (15 first-place votes); Colton Cowser, Orioles, 101 (13); Austin Wells, Yankees, 17; Mason Miller, Athletics, 16 (1); Cade Smith, Guardians, 12 (1); Wilyer Abreu; Red Sox, 11; Wyatt Langford, Rangers, 7
Experts’ pick: Gil (7 votes); Cowser (1 vote); Smith (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: This was a race in which you could have plucked the names of any of about seven players out of a hat without worry of finding a wrong answer. Of course, by the time Monday rolled around, we were down to three names in that hat, the finalists, but the statement holds true. There was no wrong answer, which is probably why the voting was so close.
With no clear front-runner, voters had to weigh some narrative aspects alongside a muddy statistical leaderboard, one that gave different answers depending on which site you happened to pull up. That’s why AXE exists — to create a consensus from these different systems — but it didn’t do much to clarify the AL rookie derby.
Gil and Wells, both essential rookie contributors to the Yankees’ run to the World Series, excelled with a lot of eyeballs on them all season, and that certainly didn’t hurt their support. Cowser’s role as an every-day player for the playoff-bound Orioles also had a high-visibility context. It feels like that, as much as anything, is why this trio emerged as finalists in a hard-to-separate field.
The emergence of Gil and the gaps he filled in an injury-depleted Yankees rotation were too much to ignore. It was a surprising emergence: Gil is 26, and he debuted in professional baseball way back in 2015 as a 17-year-old in the Minnesota organization. But when you talk about impact, you can conjure up all sorts of ill scenarios for New York had he not led AL rookies with 15 wins, 141 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA (minimum 10 starts).
The voters got it right, if only because they could not possibly have gotten it wrong.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Smith, Guardians (117 AXE)
2. Langford, Rangers (116)
3. (tie) Miller, Athletics (115)
Abreu, Red Sox (115)
Gil, Yankees (115, winner)
6. Wells, Yankees (113, finalist)
7. Cowser, Orioles (111, finalist)
ROY must-read:
Bump in the road or ominous sign: Has Luis Gil hit a wall after his red-hot start?
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Final tally: Skenes 136 (23 first-place votes); Jackson Merrill, Padres, 104 (7); Jackson Chourio, Brewers, 26; Shota Imanaga, Cubs, 4
Experts’ pick: Skenes (8 votes); Merrill (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: Skenes emerged as the winner of a star-studded NL rookie class that was deep in impact performances put up by high-upside prospects who should only get better as the years progress. It was also a classic debate, one that stirs the passions whether you are driven by traditional approaches or the most current of performance metrics: Can a starting pitcher really produce more value than a position player given the disparity in games played?
It’s a debate mostly settled in the MVP races, where pitchers only occasionally bob up to forefront of the conversation. The one in the NL Rookie of the Year race this season between Skenes, Merrill and, to a lesser extent, Chourio was a classic example.
Sure, Skenes was absolutely dominant; he’s a finalist in the NL Cy Young race, for goodness sake. Still, we’re talking about 23 games. Meanwhile, Merrill’s gifts were on display in 156 contests for the Padres, while Chourio played in 148 games for Milwaukee. Yes, the value metrics are supposed to clarify these comparisons, but, still, how do you weigh that kind of disparity between players with entirely different jobs?
In the end, I’m not sure there’s a right answer to that debate, nor is there a wrong answer to this balloting. Each of the finalists would have been a slam-dunk winner in many seasons. Skenes might very well be the best pitcher in baseball by the time we get to these discussions a year from now, if he isn’t already. In less than a year and a half, he has been the top overall pick in the draft, started an All-Star Game and become a finalist in two of the NL’s major postseason awards.
You can certainly makes cases for Merrill and Chourio. But you can’t really make a case against Skenes, 23 games or not. Since earned runs became official in 1913, Skenes became the fourth pitcher with a strikeout rate of at least 11 per nine innings while posting an ERA under 2. He’s just that much of an outlier.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Skenes, Pirates (131 AXE, winner)
2. Merrill, Padres (128, finalist)
3. Chourio, Brewers (123, finalist)
4. Masyn Winn, Cardinals (119)
5. Imanaga, Cubs (117)
ROY must-reads:
Why Pirates called up Paul Skenes now — and why he could be MLB’s next great ace
Ranking MLB’s best rookies: Is Paul Skenes or an outfielder named Jackson No. 1?
Earlier awards
Executive of the Year: Brewers president Matt Arnold named exec of the year
Doolittle’s take: I’ve written a couple of times this year that I think the Brewers might be the best-run organization in baseball right now, so that speaks to how I view the work of Arnold and his staff. I also have a kind of organizational mash-up metric I track during the season that considers things such as injuries, rookie contribution, payroll efficiency and in-season acquisitions, and Milwaukee topped that leaderboard.
And yet it’s somewhat stunning that Kansas City’s J.J. Picollo did not win this honor. He oversaw the team’s leap from 106 losses to the playoffs, using free agency to bolster the roster and staying proactive at the trade deadline (and the August waiver period) to provide essential upgrades that put the Royals over the top. It’s hard to do a better one-season job as a baseball ops chief than what Picollo did this season.
All-MLB: 2024 All-MLB First and Second Team winners
Doolittle’s take: Nobody asked me about these picks, but they read as if they did. I had the same first team. On the second team, I might have opted for Matt Chapman over Manny Machado at third base, but if that’s my one note, the selectors did a heck of a job. Or maybe I did.
Gold Gloves: Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. among 14 first-time Gold Glove winners
Doolittle’s take: For all the uncertainty in making defensive picks, the consensus defensive metric I used more or less mirrored the Gold Glove selections. I would have taken Chourio or Washington’s Jacob Young as one of the NL’s outfielders in place of Ian Happ.
For the first time, MLB is putting some of the sport’s top geographical battles together in a rivalry weekend that begins Thursday night.
Because the matchups are built around natural location rivalries, some of this week’s series will bring the heat (Juan Soto‘s return to the Bronx for a Mets-Yankees showdown, for starters) while others have significantly less juice (Rockies-Diamondbacks, we’re looking at you).
With that in mind, we took the liberty of putting the rivalry weekend matchups in tiers, from the spiciest showdowns to the biggest stretches — then we identified the true current rivals for every MLB team.
The most heated rivalries
What makes it a rivalry: This is one of those old, intrastate civic rivalries that bubbled in the minors (the Texas League in this case) for decades and grew slowly at the big league level once interleague play began. This one really took off a little more than a decade ago with the Astros joined the Rangers in the AL West. It has a name — the “Silver Boot Series” — and plenty of on-field enmity emerging in recent years. They represent Texas’ two biggest metro areas, both of which stake claim to being the hub of the Lone Star-verse, and compete for the same things: the AL West, the AL pennant and the right to claim Nolan Ryan as their own.
One thing to watch: There have been a lot of high-powered offenses in these rivalry matchups, but this year the pendulum has swung towards run prevention for both teams. The Astros have featured an offense that’s been a little below league average, a level to which the Texas batsmen would love to reach. But both pitching staffs rank in the top 10 by ERA+. Expect tight, low-scoring tussles. — Bradford Doolittle
Each team’s true rivals
Rangers: Astros. To a lesser degree, AL West rivals such as the Angels, Mariners and Athletics
Astros: Rangers — plus the added weight of basically being everyone’s hated rival since the franchise was rocked by scandal a few years back
What makes it a rivalry: The Subway Series, like most matchups on this list, derives from geography. New York City has a rich baseball history, and these are its two baseball franchises. About 10 miles and a 50-minute subway trek with a transfer at Grand Central separate the two ballparks. They’re so close that, in 2003, they played the first game of a doubleheader at Yankee Stadium and the second at Shea Stadium. But there’s more than geography here. The two clubs have battled for the city’s attention since the Mets debuted in 1962 — with the Yankees almost always boxing out their Queens counterparts. They met in the 2000 World Series when Roger Clemens threw a piece of lumber at Mike Piazza. And, a quarter century later, little brother (the Mets) seem poised to challenge big brother’s standing for years to come after convincing Soto to leave the Bronx behind.
One thing to watch: Soto’s return to the Bronx will be cinema. The right fielder’s relationship with Yankees fans in his one season in the Bronx, particularly with the Bleacher Creatures beyond the right-field wall, became a storyline of its own. They showered Soto with love and he gave it right back. They chanted “Re-sign Soto!” and he played along. Then he didn’t re-sign and all that love went off the RFK Bridge. Soto will undoubtedly receive raucous boos from offended crowds who still can’t believe he chose the Mets over their team. If Soto’s history is any indication, the scorn will fuel him. — Jorge Castillo
Each team’s true rivals
Yankees: Red Sox, Mets
Mets: Braves, Phillies, Yankees
What makes it a rivalry: Mizzou. Not entirely, but the University of Missouri sits right smack between Busch Stadium and Kauffman Stadium. When innumerable high school grads from the state head to Columbia, there they encounter a whole population of baseball fans rooting for the wrong team. Having experienced this directly, I can recall stories of lines being drawn inside of fraternity houses during the 1985 World Series, keeping fans of the combatants separated. And of course there’s that World Series, now 40 years ago, the outcome of which Cardinals fans of a certain age still whine about.
One thing to watch: Both teams are rolling, having rebounded from sub-.500 starts to leap into the playoff chase. In a reversal of the recent fortunes of the franchises, the Royals’ snap-back was expected and it’s the Cardinals’ sudden rise that is the shocker. However you frame it, the Royals and Cardinals will clash with both teams riding sizable waves of momentum. — Doolittle
Each team’s true rivals
Cardinals: Cubs
Royals: Cardinals — and the Yankees for a time in the 1970s
What makes it a rivalry: Separated by 5.5 miles on the L (subway), the Cubs and Sox are natural rivals, divided by the North and South sides of the city. Growing up a fan of one undoubtedly means not being a fan of the other. The rivalry ebbs and flows as both teams are rarely good at the same time though that hasn’t stopped the two fan bases from duking it out — oftentimes in the stands. A home plate collision — and brawl — between catchers A.J Pierzynski and Michael Barret in 2006 only heightened tensions between the clubs.
One thing to watch: Before assuming the Cubs will sweep the lowly White Sox, consider the teams give up nearly the same amount of runs per game. In fact, the South Siders have a better bullpen by the numbers. And perhaps this is the game where Luis Robert Jr rights his season. He has a career .992 OPS against the Cubs including a 1.063 mark at Wrigley Field. Keep an eye on those fights in the stands. There’s usually a couple that go viral. — Jesse Rogers
Each team’s true rivals
Cubs: Cardinals, with the Brewers a close second, then the White Sox
White Sox: Twins, Cubs
These matchups should be fun
What makes it a rivalry: About 250 miles via Interstate 71 separate these in-state rivals, as there’s no love lost between Cleveland and Cincinnati. Cleveland has mostly owned this matchup, winning 76 of the 135 times (.563) they’ve played. In fact, the Reds haven’t won the season series against Cleveland in a decade, last beating them 3 out of 4 in 2014. Terry Francona facing his old team should add some spice to the match-up.
One thing to watch: Francona’s reception from the Guardians faithful will have to wait until next month when the teams square off in Cleveland so this weekend is about the Reds trying to break that decade-long slump against their rivals. They’ll have to contend with Jose Ramirez, who has a career .935 OPS against Cincinnati including 12 of his 45 interleague home runs. — Rogers
Each team’s true rivals
Guardians: Twins
Reds: Cardinals
What makes it a rivalry: “Bay Bridge Series” no longer works now that the A’s have moved out of Oakland and into Sacramento, about 90 miles away. That’s a shame — there used to be some real juice here, highlighted by an encounter in the 1989 World Series, an A’s sweep in a series best remembered for a terrifying earthquake. But the real rivalry here was among the fans. And given how betrayed the people of Oakland feel after watching their baseball team relocate, that element is long gone.
One thing to watch: Matt Chapman represented a better time in A’s history. The organization drafted him in the first round in 2014, then watched him come up and star on teams that made three consecutive playoff appearances from 2018 to 2020. Chapman was traded shortly thereafter, yet another symbol of the frugality that has plagued this franchise for decades. The A’s haven’t done much right since then, but they’ve held Chapman to four hits and zero home runs in 25 at-bats over these last two years. — Alden Gonzalez
Each team’s true rivals
Giants: Dodgers, Athletics
Athletics: Giants, Angels
What makes it a rivalry: Nothing spices up a rivalry quite like a shared interstate highway and media rights drama. The Beltway Series is just two decades old — the Expos crossed the border to become the Nationals in 2005 — and it has lacked much on-field intrigue. Off the field, particularly inside courtrooms, is another matter. A synopsis: Baltimore was the incumbent team in the region before the Nationals existed. To appease the Orioles, who opposed a franchise entering their market, MLB ordered Nationals games to be broadcasted by MASN — the Orioles-owned television network in perpetuity. Soon enough, the franchises disagreed on the rights fees MASN should pay the Nationals. The Orioles took the matter to court in 2014, igniting a legal battle that finally ended in March when MLB dissolved the agreement, allowing for the Nationals to pursue selling its local TV rights on the open market. This is their first meeting since. Drama.
One thing to watch: These two teams feature exciting young cores on slightly different championship contention timelines. Or so that was the expectation. While the Nationals are, as projected, in fourth place in the NL East and en route to not reaching the postseason for the sixth straight season, the Orioles have face-planted out of the gate with World Series aspirations after consecutive postseason appearances. The Orioles can’t stand to sit in last place much longer. All eyes are on whether they can dig themselves out of this hole. — Castillo
Each team’s true rivals
Nationals: Phillies
Orioles: Yankees and Red Sox
What makes it a rivalry: They share a spring training complex in Peoria, Arizona, neither franchise has won a World Series, and they used to make a lot of trades with each other — indeed, the Mariners’ top two relievers, Andres Munoz and Matt Brash, were acquired from the Padres in two separate trades made on the same day in 2020. The Mariners’ largest comeback in franchise history came against the Padres, a 16-13 victory in 2016 after trailing 12-2. But this is hardly a heated rivalry — it really came about only because neither team had a logical opponent back when interleague play began in 1997.
One thing to watch: With both teams battling for first place, it’s been forever since either team won a division title: 2006 for the Padres and 2001 for the Mariners. Both teams also have early MVP candidates to focus on: Fernando Tatis Jr. leads the NL in WAR and Cal Raleigh is among the leaders in the non-Aaron Judge mix in the AL — and has played every game, starting at either catcher or DH. — David Schoenfield
Each team’s true rivals
Padres: Dodgers (arguably the best rivalry in the game right now!)
Mariners: None, really. The Astros would be the most hated among Mariners fans right now, but you can say that about every team in the AL West.
Well, the geography does line up …
What makes it a rivalry: Back in 2011, the Dodgers were navigating Frank McCourt’s financial mess and Angels owner Arte Moreno saw an opportunity. He signed Albert Pujols and inked a lucrative cable deal that came with the hopes of supplanting the Dodgers as the “it” team in Southern California. The opposite occurred. Guggenheim purchased the Dodgers in spring 2012, then signed an even bigger cable deal, hired Andrew Friedman to lead baseball operations, and the franchise eventually became the industry’s standard-bearer. The Angels, meanwhile, are trending toward a 10th consecutive losing season and saw Shohei Ohtani spurn them for the Dodgers two offseasons ago. Moreno and his lieutenants despise the Dodgers, but the gap between the two teams has become so wide — in track record, financials, resources and reputation — that it doesn’t matter.
One thing to watch: Clayton Kershaw makes his return from offseason toe and knee surgeries Saturday, and the Dodgers need him far more than they ever anticipated. Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki are all on the injured list with shoulder injuries. Ohtani, meanwhile, is still methodically going through his pitching rehab and isn’t expected back until some time after the All-Star break. Kershaw is in his age-37 season, but he has looked sharp through five rehab starts, posting a 2.57 ERA in 21 innings. — Gonzalez
Each team’s true rivals
Dodgers: Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks, Braves, Astros, Yankees
Angels: Rangers, Mariners, Astros
What makes it a rivalry: Let’s be honest here, this isn’t even the best rivalry between Tampa and Miami. The NHL version between the Lightning and Panthers is much more intense and competitive, with both franchises having won Stanley Cups this decade (the Lightning in 2020 and 2021 and the Panthers in 2024). The Rays have dominated the head-to-head play of late, going 24-4 since 2019.
One thing to watch: The Rays have to view this as a chance to jump-start their season given their recent dominance over the Marlins. Chandler Simpson is fun to watch with his blazing speed but hasn’t really been all that valuable for the Rays. For the Marlins, they need Sandy Alcantara to get going, but the former Cy Young winner has struggled in his return from Tommy John surgery. He should start on Sunday. — Schoenfield
Each team’s true rivals
Rays: Yankees (although obviously the Rays aren’t the Yankees’ biggest rival)
Marlins: Braves. As Marlins fans can point out, they do have more World Series titles than the Braves since 1997
What makes it a rivalry: If playing in the same state isn’t enough to define a rivalry, then how about playing in more than 2,300 games against each other to do it? From 1969 to 1994, the Phillies and Pirates were both in the NL East, giving each city ample time to dislike the other side, each and every year. Though the Phillies have been the better team recently, it’s the Pirates who own a decided edge in the all-time series, winning 1230 games to 1085 for Philadelphia. Pirate favorite Andrew McCutchen went to the other side for three seasons before returning to earn boos from the Philly faithful who used to cheer him.
One thing to watch: When it comes to the Pirates these days, there’s literally one thing to watch: Paul Skenes. This will be his first time facing Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and a Phillies offense that ranks in the top 10 in OPS. Skenes is coming off one of his better outings in a loss to the Mets on Monday — though he only struck out six in six innings. In fact, Skenes hasn’t hit double digits in strikeouts in a single outing this season. That trend might continue this weekend, as the Phillies are one of the tougher teams to whiff this season. — Rogers
Each team’s true rivals:
Phillies: Mets (with the Braves gaining ground)
Pirates: The Phillies — but the Cubs aren’t far behind
What makes it a rivalry: “The Border Battle” — the uninspired moniker for this rivalry — is almost entirely a product of geographic overlap. As best I can tell, insofar as there is bad blood between Milwaukee/Wisconsin and Minneapolis/Minnesota, it’s as much a carryover from the Packers-Vikings rivalry in the NFL as anything. And of course the Wisconsin-Minnesota college football rivalry is the most played of all the traditional rivalries. In baseball, the Twins and Brewers were briefly in the same division and were both in the AL for a long time. But other than claiming rights to Larry Hisle and Paul Molitor, it’s always struck me as too friendly. Midwest nice.
One thing to watch: The Brewers have yet to get hot this season for any prolonged stretch, though they did recover from their wretched season-opening series at Yankee Stadium; Milwaukee has hovered around .500 all season. That’s where Minnesota is as well but they got there in different ways. The Twins started slow and have gotten red hot lately. Their problem is that all the non-White Sox teams in the Central have been hot, so Minnesota has hardly gained any ground in the standings. When this series begins, both rivals are still establishing whatever their 2025 identities turn out to be. — Doolittle
Each team’s true rivals
Brewers: Cubs, Cardinals
Twins: Royals, White Sox, Twins
What are we doing here?!
What makes it a rivalry: Once upon a time, this was a heated AL East affair. That changed when the Tigers moved to the AL Central in 1998. Still, just a four-hour, 230-mile/370-kilometer drive separates the two cities and, with the Expos long gone, the Blue Jays don’t have a Canadian sibling franchise to loathe. Maybe the recent tense U.S.-Canada relations will make for a zestier-than-usual weekend in Toronto.
One thing to watch: The Tigers are proving their stunning finish to the 2024 season was no fluke. They own the best record in the American League behind a starting rotation headed by reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. The good news for Toronto is they won’t face Skubal this weekend as they seek to remain within striking distance in the AL East. The bad news is Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, two of their three best starters, won’t toe the rubber either. — Castillo
Each team’s true rivals
Blue Jays: Expos
Tigers: White Sox
What makes it a rivalry: This is always a fun series for history buffs since the Braves and Red Sox are both “Original 16” franchises, but they’ve never met in a World Series and this rivalry is really just based on the fact that the Braves played in Boston from 1876 to 1952. That doesn’t have much relevance for 2025. Seven Hall of Famers have played for both franchises: Babe Ruth, Cy Young, Jimmy Collins, Al Simmons, Orlando Cepeda, John Smoltz and Billy Wagner.
One thing to watch: We get a stellar pitching matchup on Friday between 2024 Cy Young winner Chris Sale for the Braves and 2025 Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox. Sale is 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA, but has fanned 64 in 47⅔ innings. Crochet is 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA and 65 Ks in 56 innings. — Schoenfield
Each team’s true rivals
Braves: Probably still the Mets, but Braves-Phillies has escalated since 2022
Red Sox: Yankees
What makes it a rivalry: They’re … both kinda new? (The Rockies were born in 1993, the Diamondbacks in ’98.) They’re … kinda close? (It’s a two-hour flight or a 13-hour drive between their respective cities.) They … like the color purple? (The D-backs recently brought theirs back.) OK, we’re getting a little too cute. It’s not like there’s nothing here. They play in the same division, and they really got after it twice: 2007, when the D-backs won the NL West and the Rockies swept them in the NLCS; and 2017, when they met in the wild-card game. But there hasn’t been much since.
One thing to watch: Corbin Carroll slashed .299/.426/.529 in 25 games against the Rockies from 2023 to 2024, a two-year stretch in which they lost a combined 204 games. Carroll is off to a blazing start, and now he’ll get to feast on a Rockies pitching staff that holds the worst ERA in the majors. The D-backs have won 19 of 26 games against the Rockies over these past two years. That should come as no surprise. — Gonzalez
Each team’s true rivals
Diamondbacks: Dodgers, Padres
Rockies: Dodgers
WASHINGTON — Andrei Svechnikov scored the go-ahead goal with just under two minutes left and the Carolina Hurricanes beat the Washington Capitals 3-1 in Game 5 on Thursday night, winning the second-round series and advancing to the Eastern Conference finals for a second time in three years.
Captain Jordan Staal scored his first goal of the playoffs, and Frederik Andersen stopped 18 of the 19 shots he faced, including several on Alex Ovechkin.
After a give-and-go with defenseman Sean Walker, Svechnikov’s shot got through Logan Thompson from a bad angle with 1:59 remaining, and that was the difference in a back-and-forth game.
Seth Jarvis sealed it with an empty-net goal with 26.1 seconds left.
The Hurricanes improved to 10-5 in potential closeout games in seven trips to the postseason with coach Rod Brind’Amour. They will face either the Florida Panthers in a rematch of the 2023 East finals or the Toronto Maple Leafs in a reminder of 2002. The Panthers are up 3-2 in their series with the chance to eliminate the Maple Leafs as soon as Friday night.
Carolina is 35-7-2 through 82 games and then two rounds when scoring first.
Despite an unassisted goal by Anthony Beauvillier and some important saves among the 18 from Thompson, the Capitals saw their season end after finishing atop the conference and the Metropolitan Division, and beating the Montreal Canadiens in the first round to win a playoff series for the first time since their Stanley Cup run in 2018. Washington started strong, got a few quality scoring chances but could not get through tight-checking defense to prolong the series.
After giving up the backbreaker to Svechnikov, Thompson was pulled for an extra attacker and the Capitals were unable to equalize and let Jarvis get to the loose puck for his empty-netter.
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