How does Ovechkin’s injury impact the goal-scoring chase — and the Capitals’ playoff hopes?
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Ryan S. Clark
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Kristen Shilton
Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin is expected to miss the next four to six weeks after sustaining a fractured left fibula, the team announced Thursday.
And thus, the Great 8’s pursuit of the all-time NHL record for goals, currently held by Wayne Gretzky, is now paused. Ovechkin currently has 868 goals and is chasing down Gretzky’s 894.
Meanwhile, the Capitals are in second place in the Metropolitan Division, just a point off the pace of the Carolina Hurricanes, with the season nearly at the quarter mark.
What exactly is the injury? How will the Capitals be impacted on the ice and in the dressing room? Here’s what we know now, and what comes next.
What do we know about his injury?
Ovechkin has missed only 35 games due to injury in his entire 20-season career. That is an astounding mark on its own and highlights the veteran’s overall durability. Even his teammates were shocked that Ovechkin could be sidelined for such a stretch.
“Everyone’s bummed out,” said winger Tom Wilson, an Ovechkin teammate since 2013. “We were sitting there saying, ‘This is weird. Like, it’s unbelievable that he’s actually hurt.’ It’s one of those things where like, he’s going to miss games? I’ve been around a long time, and it’s new to me.”
That’s what made Ovechkin’s shin-on-shin collision against Utah so tough to see — immediately it looked bad. Ovechkin sported a walking boot out of the arena that night, and now the Capitals have confirmed it’s a fibula fracture. Those can be difficult to come back from. Jake DeBrusk, for example, fractured his fibula in the 2023 Winter Classic, and it was more than six weeks before the Boston Bruins even began cautiously working him back into the lineup.
There will be a physical and mental component to Ovechkin’s recovery; the fibula itself has to heal, and then he has to be confident in going back on the ice, taking contact, cutting on his edges and trusting the work he has put into strengthening his muscles again. At 39 years old, that won’t be easy. — Shilton
What does this mean for his chase of Wayne Gretzky’s record?
Before the injury, Ovechkin was on pace to score what would have been a career-high 68 goals this season. He is 26 goals shy of tying the record, and he would have surpassed Gretzky in either late December or early January if he kept scoring at that pace.
But now? The earliest he could return to the Capitals’ lineup would be Dec. 20 against the Carolina Hurricanes, while the six-week end of the window means he would return Jan. 2 versus the Minnesota Wild, with the NHL’s Christmas break splitting the difference. If he returns by Dec. 20, he will have missed 13 games, whereas the Jan. 2 return date pushes that figure to 18 games — a difference of five games. It would leave him with 51 games remaining if he returns by Dec. 20 or 43 games should he come back after the New Year.
In either event, he has more than half of the regular season left to break the record. But it also comes with the realization that to break the record, he would have to score 0.49 goals per game if he comes back Dec. 20, with that number rising to 0.58 goals per game if he returns Jan. 2. If he doesn’t hit those rates, we are looking at the start of the 2025-26 season to break Gretzky’s record. — Clark
1:56
The Great 8: Ovechkin’s most memorable goals
Take a look back at the greatest eight goals from Alexander Ovechkin’s career.
How will the Capitals be impacted on the ice?
In a word? Immensely. Losing its top goal scorer for more than four weeks is a challenge for any team. But when it’s someone who was on pace to score nearly 70 goals, on a team that leads the NHL with 4.33 goals per game? That just further amplifies what Ovechkin’s absence will mean to the Caps.
It’s possible that Capitals coach Spencer Carbery could turn to a top line that features Connor McMichael at left wing, centered by Pierre-Luc Dubois with Wilson at right wing. That would leave the Caps with Dylan Strome anchoring a second line with Andrew Mangiapane and Aliaksei Protas, which appeared to be their setup before Thursday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche.
Even though Ovechkin leads them in goals, the Caps have received significant contributions from a pair of homegrown talents in McMichael and Protas. McMichael entered Thursday second on the team with 12 goals, while Protas was third with seven.
That said, a player the Capitals would love to see step up is Dubois. He has been productive — he has 12 points in 18 games. It’s just that he has scored only one goal this season — a jarring number considering he has been a four-time 20-goal scorer in his career. — Clark
What about the emotional element?
Every single player in the dressing room has been invested in Ovechkin’s quest to break Gretzky’s record, and they’ve thrived off helping him inch closer to history. Will Ovechkin’s absence leave an intangible void? Especially if seeing him have such a tremendous start to the season — and be on the pace he was to hit Gretzky’s mark — was a boost for this overachieving Washington team? It’s certainly something to consider, and perhaps some of the Capitals already are.
“You know when goal scorers start scoring, it’s dangerous,” said John Carlson, who has been teammates with Ovechkin since 2009. “We see him coming to the rink every day, we know what’s at stake. You never want anyone to get injured, but there’s a lot to it, and certainly he was playing his best hockey in years.”
It will fall on Washington’s leadership group now to ensure there’s no hangover related to Ovechkin’s injury, and to instill belief that not only can the Capitals continue to be a contender without him, but that their overall sense of purpose on the season doesn’t take any sort of hit, either. — Shilton
Sports
Ranking the top 50 players in the Stanley Cup playoffs: Where do Hellebuyck, MacKinnon, Kucherov land?
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Neil Paine
As the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs began, a number of storylines dominated the conversation: Can Connor Hellebuyck turn his historic regular season into a Dominik Hašek-esque postseason run for the ages for the Winnipeg Jets? Will the Colorado Avalanche–Dallas Stars showdown be a quasi-Cup Final right away in Round 1? Is it finally the year for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to win it all, after the Edmonton Oilers came so close last season?
But beyond the matchups and narratives, it’s also a good time to take stock of which players bring the most value into the postseason.
That’s where goals above replacement (GAR) comes in — my evolved spin on earlier all-in-one value stats like Tom Awad’s goals versus threshold and Hockey-Reference’s point shares. The core idea of GAR is to measure a player’s total impact — in offense, defense or goaltending — above what a generic “replacement-level” player might provide at the same position. It also strives to ensure the league’s value is better balanced by position: 60% of leaguewide GAR is distributed to forwards, 30% to defensemen and 10% to goaltenders.
To then assess who might be most valuable on the eve of this year’s playoffs, I plugged GAR into a system inspired by Bill James’ concept of an “established level” of performance; in this case, a weighted average of each player’s GAR over the past three regular seasons, with more emphasis on 2024-25. And to keep the metric from undervaluing recent risers, we also apply a safeguard: no player’s established level can be lower than 75% of his most recent season’s GAR.
The result is a blend of peak, recent, and sustained performance — the players on playoff-bound teams who have been great, are currently great or are still trending upward — in a format that gives us a sense of who could define this year’s postseason.
One final note: Injured players who were expected to miss all or substantial parts of the playoffs were excluded from the ranking. Sorry, Jack Hughes.
With that in mind, here are the top 50 skaters and goaltenders on teams in the 2025 playoff field, according to their three-year established level of value, ranked by the numbers:
Five series of the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have begun, and two more will begin Monday. Meanwhile, the two matchups in the Central Division are on to Game 2.
Here’s the four-pack of games on the calendar:
What are the key storylines heading into Monday’s games? Who are the key players to watch?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down last night, and the Three Stars of Sunday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals
Game 1 | 7 p.m., ESPN
You might’ve heard about the 2010 playoff matchup between these two teams a time or so in the past week.
In that postseason, the overwhelming favorite (and No. 1 seed) Capitals, led by Alex Ovechkin, were upset by the No. 8 seed Canadiens, due in large part to an epic performance in goal from Jaroslav Halak. Halak isn’t walking out of the tunnel for the Habs this time around (we assume); instead it’ll be Becancour, Quebec, native Sam Montembeault, who allowed four goals on 35 shots in his one start against the Caps this season.
Washington’s goaltender for Game 1 has yet to be revealed, as Logan Thompson was injured back on April 2. But there’s no question that there is a disparity between the offensive output of the two clubs, as the Caps finished second in the NHL in goals per game (3.49), while the Canadiens finished 17th (2.96). Can Montreal keep up in this series?
St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Game 2 | 7:30 p.m., ESPN2
The Blues hung with the Jets for much of Game 1 and even looked like the stronger team at certain times, so pulling off the series upset remains on the table. But getting a win on the unfriendly ice at the Canada Life Centre would be of some benefit in shifting momentum before the series moves to St. Louis for Game 3. The Blues proved that Connor Hellebuyck is not invincible in Game 1, and they were led by stars Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, who both got on the board.
The Jets have a mixed history after winning Game 1 of a playoff series, having gone 3-3 as a franchise (including the Atlanta Thrashers days) on such occasions. Like the Blues, the Jets were led by their stars, Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele, but the game-tying goal came from Alex Iafallo, who has played up and down the lineup this season.
Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars
Game 2 | 9:30 p.m., ESPN
The Stars might like a redo on Game 1 after the visiting Avalanche essentially controlled the festivities for much of the contest. Stars forward Jason Robertson missed Game 1 because of an injury sustained in the final game of the regular season, and his return sooner than later would be excellent for Dallas; he scored three goals in three games against Colorado in the regular season. Also of note, teams that have taken a 2-0 lead in best-of-seven series have won 86% of the time.
Slowing down the Avs’ stars will be critical in Game 2, which is a sound — if perhaps unrealistic — strategy. With his two goals in Game 1, Nathan MacKinnon became the third player in Avalanche/Nordiques history to score 50 playoff goals, joining Joe Sakic (84) and Peter Forsberg (58). In reaching 60 assists in his 73rd playoff game, Cale Makar became the third-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach that milestone, behind Bobby Orr (69 GP) and Al MacInnis (71 GP).
Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings
Game 1 | 10 p.m., ESPN2
This is the fourth straight postseason in which the Oilers and Kings have met in Round 1, and Edmonton has won the previous three series. Will the fourth time be the charm for the Kings?
L.A. went 3-1-0 against Edmonton this season, including shutouts on April 5 and 14. Quinton Byfield was particularly strong in those games, with three goals and an assist. Overall, the Kings were led in scoring this season by Adrian Kempe, with 35 goals and 38 assists. Warren Foegele — who played 22 playoff games for the Oilers in 2024 — had a career-high 24 goals this season.
The Oilers enter the 2025 postseason with 41 playoff series wins, which is the second most among non-Original Six teams (behind the Flyers, with 44). They have been eliminated by the team that won the Stanley Cup in each of the past three postseasons (Panthers 2024, Golden Knights 2023, Avalanche 2022). Edmonton continues to be led by Leon Draisaitl — who won his first Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer this season — and Connor McDavid, who won the goal-scoring title in 2022-23 and the Conn Smythe Trophy as MVP of the playoffs last year, even though the Oilers didn’t win the Cup.
Arda’s Three Stars of Sunday
For the last several seasons, much of the postseason narrative for the Leafs has been the lack of production from the Core Four. So this was a dream Game 1 against Ottawa for Marner (one goal, two assists), Nylander (one goal, one assist), John Tavares (one goal, one assist) and Matthews (two assists) in Toronto’s 6-2 win over Ottawa.
Stankoven’s two goals in the second period put the game out of reach, with the Canes winning 4-1 in Game 1. Stankoven is the second player in Hurricanes/Whalers history to score twice in his first playoff game with the club (the other was Andrei Svechnikov in Game 1 of the first round in 2019)
Howden had two third-period goals in the Golden Knights’ victory over the Wild in Game 1, including a buzzer-beating empty-netter to make the final score 4-2.
Sunday’s results
Hurricanes 4, Devils 1
Carolina leads 1-0
The Hurricanes came out inspired thanks in part to the raucous home crowd and took a quick lead off the stick of Jalen Chatfield at 2:24 of the first period. Logan Stankoven — who came over in the Mikko Rantanen trade — scored a pair in the second period, and the Canes never looked back. On the Devils’ side, injuries forced Brenden Dillon and Cody Glass out of the game, while Luke Hughes left in the third period but was able to return. Full recap.
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Logan Stankoven’s 2nd goal gives Hurricanes a 3-0 lead
Logan Stankoven notches his second goal of the game to give the Hurricanes a 3-0 lead.
Maple Leafs 6, Senators 2
Toronto leads 1-0
The first skirmish in the Battle of Ontario goes to the home side, as the Leafs never let the Senators get very close in this one. Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Mitch Marner scored in the first, John Tavares and William Nylander tallied in the second, while Morgan Rielly and Matthew Knies put the game away in the third. Drake Batherson and Ridly Greig — scorer of a controversial empty-net goal against Toronto in 2024 — scored for Ottawa. Full recap.
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William Nylander zips home a goal to pad the Maple Leafs’ lead
William Nylander zips the puck past the goalie to give the Maple Leafs a 4-1 lead.
Golden Knights 4, Wild 2
Vegas leads 1-0
In Sunday’s nightcap, the two teams played an evenly matched first two periods, as Vegas carried a 2-1 lead into the third. Then, Brett Howden worked his magic, scoring a goal to pad the Knights’ lead 2:28 into that frame, and putting the game to bed with an empty-netter that beat the buzzer. The Wild were led by Matt Boldy, who had two goals, both assisted by Kirill Kaprizov. Full recap.
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Brett Howden buries Wild in Game 1 with buzzer-beating goal
Brett Howden sends the Minnesota Wild packing in Game 1 with an empty-net goal for the Golden Knights in the final second.
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