As Starmer’s approval rating plummets, Farage is on the rise: Can Labour turn things around?
“We are in unchartered territory.”
Sir John Curtice understands polling like few others, but you do not have to be an expert to see the Labour government has had a rough start.
It’s been less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory and already two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off.
That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.
And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’s is on the rise.
Ipsos favorability towards politicians
“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%
“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”
Labour are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.
While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.
It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.
“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.
“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.
“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”
But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?
‘They have certainly got time’
According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.
Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.
“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”
To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.
“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.
“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”
‘Public is giving Labour a chance’
Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.
According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.
The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.
He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”
That does not mean being complacent, however.
Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?
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Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.
“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”
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How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’
‘Learn lessons from America’
James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.
He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.
“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”
That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.
Labour need to learn from the Democrats’ losses, say pollsters
With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.
“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”
Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.
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100 days of Starmer
Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.
“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”
Can Labour bounce back?
Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.
As Sir John reminds us, there’s only really one event a leader cannot recover from – which Liz Truss knows all too well.
“If you preside over a market crisis, it’s game over – you are dead,” he says.
“Other than that, it’s delivery, delivery, delivery.”
A workman saved a seven-year-old boy from a burning car in the aftermath of a deadly crash caused by a suicidal ex-pilot, an inquest has heard.
The schoolboy’s rescue came following the collision on the M6, which killed former RAF man Richard Woods and four others, in October last year.
Last week a coroner ruled that Woods, 40, took his own life by deliberately driving his Skoda the wrong way down the motorway while drunk and hitting a Toyota Yaris head-on.
The driver of the Toyota, Jaroslaw Rossa, 42, was also killed, along with his two sons, Filip, 15, and Dominic, seven, and his partner Jade McEnroe, 33.
Cockermouth Coroner’s Court heard on Thursday that Ms McEnroe’s son was also in the car but survived after workman Gavin Walsh came to his rescue at the scene, which was near Tebay services in Cumbria.
In a statement to the inquest, Mr Walsh said he was a passenger in a transit van travelling to Scotland when he witnessed the crash.
He jumped out of the vehicle and used a jack to smash the rear windscreen of the Toyota and pulled the boy out of the burning vehicle.
Mr Walsh said: “We really did try, I can assure everyone we did our best. We only had minimal time.
“I saved a life that day and I hope never to witness anything like that again.”
He added that he has never stopped thinking about the boy, and said: “I hope we will meet again one day and I will give you a massive hug.”
At the time, the family were returning to Glasgow from a trip to Legoland in Windsor, Berkshire.
The inquest heard that Wood, who was travelling at a speed of at least 65mph, would have been charged with manslaughter had he survived.
Recording conclusions of unlawful killing, Cumbria assistant coroner Margaret Taylor said: “I found that Jaroslaw, Jade, Filip and Dominic died as a consequence of the unlawful acts of another driver.”
The inquest heard how Mr Woods, from Cambridgeshire, had served a distinguished 14-year career in the RAF and was a flight instructor for BAE Systems at the time of his death.
Jade McEnroe. Pic: Cumbria Constabulary
Dominic and Filip. Pic: Cumbria Constabulary
In Ms Taylor’s record of inquest, Mr Woods was said to have been experiencing “a number of stressors in his life” and had a “history of harmful use of alcohol”.
Following the crash, he was found to be nearly four times over the legal drink-drive limit and a two-thirds empty bottle of gin was found in his car.
On the day of his death, concerns had been raised over his behaviour at a work conference near Preston in Lancashire.
Mr Woods failed to return to his seat after lunch and was later spotted driving erratically and swerving across three northbound carriageway lanes on the M6.
After pulling onto the hard shoulder, he then proceeded to U-turn and drove southward on lane three.
Filip, Dominic and Jaroslaw Rossa. Pic: Cumbria Constabulary
Detective Sergeant Deborah Story, from Cumbria Police, told the inquest that Mr Woods would have been prosecuted on four counts of manslaughter had he lived.
She said hypothetical charges of murder were considered by detectives but not thought appropriate because of a lack of information that Mr Woods knew the family or anything that provided a link between them.
Ms McEnroe’s parents, Marie McEnroe and George McNellis, told the coroner they thought it was “murder”.
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A statement from the mother of Filip and Dominic, and the ex-wife of Mr Rossa, Kamila, was read out at the inquest.
She said Mr Rossa, known as Jarek, was born in Poland where they became a couple and went on to have three boys.
He loved playing computer games and had “lots of friends”, she said, and worked at the Wagamama restaurant in Silverburn, Glasgow.
She said she was “devastated” over the deaths, adding: “Our lives will never be the same.
“I am heartbroken at the passing of my beloved angels Filip and Dominic.”
Marie McEnroe said her daughter, a spa therapist, had been in a relationship with Mr Rossa for about two-and-a-half years.
She said Jade had been a “brilliant mother” to her only child, was “really happy” with Mr Rossa and it was “lovely chaos” when all the boys were playing together.
Ms McEnroe added: “Life changed forever that day”.
Ms Taylor praised the “selfless acts of bravery” from those in the aftermath of the collision, including Mr Walsh, who she said went towards the burning car “without hesitation for his own safety”.
The coroner added: “Without his swift response, Jade’s child would also have perished.”
Addressing the bereaved family members, she said: “Your loss is unimaginable but you have conducted yourself with dignity and I thank you for that. I wish you strength for the future.”
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
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