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“We are in unchartered territory.”

Sir John Curtice understands polling like few others, but you do not have to be an expert to see the Labour government has had a rough start.

It’s been less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory and already two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off.

That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.

And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’s is on the rise.

Ipsos favorability towards politicians
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Ipsos favorability towards politicians

“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%

“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”

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Labour are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.

While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.

It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.

“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.

“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.

“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”

But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?

‘They have certainly got time’

According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.

Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
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Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.

He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.

“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”

To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.

“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.

“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”

‘Public is giving Labour a chance’

Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.

According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.

The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.

He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”

That does not mean being complacent, however.

Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?

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Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.

“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”

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How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’

‘Learn lessons from America’

James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.

He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.

“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”

That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.

Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris reacts as she delivers remarks, conceding 2024 U.S. presidential election to President-elect Donald Trump, at Howard University in Washington, U.S., November 6, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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Labour need to learn from the Democrats’ losses, say pollsters

With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.

“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”

Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.

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100 days of Starmer

Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.

“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”

Can Labour bounce back?

Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.

As Sir John reminds us, there’s only really one event a leader cannot recover from – which Liz Truss knows all too well.

“If you preside over a market crisis, it’s game over – you are dead,” he says.

“Other than that, it’s delivery, delivery, delivery.”

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‘Monster’ who fatally beat chef near Notting Hill Carnival jailed for life

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'Monster' who fatally beat chef near Notting Hill Carnival jailed for life

A self-described “monster” who beat a top chef to death near Notting Hill Carnival has been jailed for life.

Omar Wilson repeatedly punched and kicked Mussie Imnetu during an altercation outside a restaurant in Queensway, west London, on 26 August last year.

Wilson, 31, then left the scene to go clubbing.

Mr Imnetu, 41, who worked under star chefs Gordon Ramsay and Marcus Wareing, died in hospital four days later, without regaining consciousness.

Mussie Imnetu. Pic: Metropolitan Police
Image:
Mussie Imnetu. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Sentencing Wilson to a minimum 18 years, Judge Philip Katz said Mr Imnetu’s “brutal” killing was “abhorrent”.

“Mussie and those who loved him are the victims in this case and the impact on them of his murder has been severe,” he said.

“Mussie was defenceless on the ground when you punched and kicked him to death.”

He continued: “You could not control your temper. Only a few seconds after punches were aimed by both of you you tripped Mussie and he fell to the ground and you could have walked away.

“As he knelt you rained further punches down on his head. You could have walked away.

“However, you stood up, raised your leg and kicked him hard to the head. Kicking someone to the head when they are defenceless on the ground is abhorrent.”

CCTV footage of Omar Wilson at a security point after the assault. Pic: Metropolitan Police
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CCTV footage of Omar Wilson at a security point after the assault. Pic: Metropolitan Police

Mr Imnetu’s wife, Linda, described her husband as “respected, admired and loved” in a pre-recorded victim impact statement played in court.

“Mussie didn’t just leave behind a legacy for his family, he left an indelible mark on his workplace and community,” she said.

“Nothing can undo what has been taken from us. I ask the court to remember the man Mussie was: his character, his integrity and the life he built; not just the circumstances of his passing.”

An audio recording of Mr Imnetu’s six-year-old son wishing his “daddy” goodbye was also played in court, which the judge called “heart-rending”.

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CCTV footage was played in court during the trial showing Wilson approaching Mr Imnetu and headbutting him.

Around a minute later, Wilson punched Mr Imnetu five times in the head, continued to repeatedly punch him while he was on his hands and knees, and then kicked him in the head.

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Wilson of Napier Road, east London, told the Old Bailey he was acting in self defence, telling jurors: “I just regret that somebody’s life was taken while I was trying to defend mine.”

He claimed Mr Imnetu had a broken bottle – something Judge Katz described as “a deliberate lie”.

The court heard after the attack that Wilson had told an associate he “crossed the line”.

In a message, he said: “There’s a monster in me, man, and it’s just like sometimes it comes out.

“And I think I’ve messed up now, I’ve messed up, everything’s finished.”

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Eleanor Williams: The teenager who faked a grooming scandal also named real abusers

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Eleanor Williams: The teenager who faked a grooming scandal also named real abusers

Home video of Eleanor Williams shows a happy teenager; dancing, singing into a bottle, joking with her sister, and making others laugh. A marked contrast to the videos that came to define her.

Warning: This article contains references to sexual abuse and violence

Five years ago, police bodyworn camera footage showed a battered and drugged girl with a bleeding mouth and bruises mushrooming over her closed eye.

Looking like the victim of extreme violence, she claimed on Facebook in May 2020 that she was under the control of a brutal Asian gang who sold her for sex in her hometown of Barrow-in-Furness, northwest England.

But she was found guilty of perverting the course of justice. In January 2023, a jury found that she had lied, fabricated evidence and even inflicted wounds upon herself to frame innocent men.

There is, however, a new twist in this murky story.

There were Asian men grooming girls in Barrow – and at least one of those involved was linked to Eleanor’s allegations.

For the first time, Sky News is revealing extracts of a diary Eleanor kept in the run-up to her notorious Facebook post. And while her diary, which catalogues abuse by controlling men, may be another work of fiction, somehow within it, the girl famed for lying identifies a man who has been convicted of similar crimes.

“It’s hard,” she writes, that people think of her as a “liar” and “evil and a druggy”.

“I wish I could explain everything but what’s the point when they just say I’m lying,” she adds.

Police bodyworn camera footage of Eleanor Williams from May 2020
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Police body-worn camera footage of Eleanor Williams from May 2020

The girl who lied

The night before the Facebook post, police found Eleanor bruised and battered in a field.

“She had horrific facial injuries,” says her mother, Allison Johnston. “There was blood everywhere.”

It wasn’t the first time Allison had seen her daughter with unexplained injuries. Her sister, Lucy, believes Eleanor had reached breaking point and spoke about feeling ignored by the police.

“The only way I can think of it stopping is if people know what’s going on,” Lucy says Eleanor told her.

Lucy Williams, Eleanor's sister
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Lucy, Eleanor’s sister

Read more:
How Eleanor Williams’ false claims unravelled
Sexual abuse victims reveal impact of Eleanor Williams case
Introducing… Unreliable Witness

The Facebook post triggered a wave of protest and anger at the police. People wanted “Justice for Ellie”.

The Asian community was targeted, businesses’ windows were smashed and there were more than 80 hate-related crimes linked to Eleanor’s claims in the ensuing months.

While no one was identified in her post, local restaurant and ice-cream van owner, Mohammed Ramzan, known as Mo Rammy, 45, was named by Eleanor to the police.

Mohammed Ramzan, known as Mo Rammy
Image:
Mohammed Ramzan, known as Mo Rammy

When rumours started circulating about his involvement, he was left fearing for his family’s safety and, he says, barely left the house for three years.

“We had fire extinguishers and baseball bats next to [the children’s] beds,” Mo says, tearfully. “We had threats people [were] going to burn the shop down, burn us down.”

Not long after her Facebook post started going viral, it emerged that Eleanor herself was under investigation – for fabricating stories. That same day, police arrested her on suspicion of perverting the course of justice. They would later discover a hammer in the field where she was found with her injuries, which only had her DNA on it, and CCTV from Tesco would show she had bought an identical hammer days earlier.

In her trial, evidence was placed before the jury that she had fabricated text messages to implicate the men. CCTV showed she had stayed in a hotel on her own for an evening in Barrow, on a night when she’d claimed to have been raped by multiple men in Blackpool.

In March 2023, she was found guilty of trying to frame five men and was jailed for eight and a half years.

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The story of Eleanor Williams

The other trial

While most of the town was ready to move on – there was a group of local women with an ordeal ahead of them. Barrow had a secret. Another much-delayed trial involving three Asian brothers accused of grooming and sexually abusing underage girls, some as young as seven, in Barrow and Leeds was about to get under way.

“Barrow got branded a lying town,” says Elizabeth, a key witness. “It’s not. Grooming was happening here and still probably is.”

The three men faced 62 offences between them, which were alleged to have occurred in Leeds and Barrow between 1996 and 2010.

Shaha Amran Miah, 49, (Jai), was accused of 16 sexual offences against three girls, as well as two charges of intimidation and one of kidnap.

Shaha Alman Miah, 47, (Ali), faced three sexual offences against one girl.

Shah Joman Miah, 38, (Sarj), was accused of 40 sexual offences against three children. Nine of these were rape of a child.

Mugshots of the three jailed Miah brothers
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Left to right: Shaha Amran Miah, Shah Joman Miah, and Shaha Alman Miah

Elizabeth’s then boyfriend worked at a takeaway called Iesha’s, owned by the Miah family. It was there, she says, that girls as young as 13 or 14 were taken to so-called sex parties.

“Men came down from Leeds. I know they’d come down for one thing… sex with girls,” she says.

It was Sarj and the eldest brother Jai, she says, who regularly resorted to “blackmail, manipulation and threats”. She told the court that Jai was a drug dealer who made threats to try to stop her giving them an interview.

Elizabeth was pregnant at the time. “I will set this house on fire with you and your partner in it and make sure that kid will never come out of you,” Jai told her, she says.

The court also heard how Sarj would take one underage girl to a hotel for sex, sneaking her in after the receptionist had left for the night. Aged in his late 20s, he began having sex with her when she was 13. A decade and a half later, the court heard she still has nightmares where she sees his face.

Prosecution barrister Tim Evans KC said the brothers “created an environment in Barrow in which each of them could abuse young girls”. He described how the men used free cigarettes, food and alcohol and even paid for hair extensions as “classic grooming” techniques, preying on vulnerable girls who were often neglected at home.

Earlier this month, all three men were found guilty of all the counts against them. Two of the brothers, Sarj and Jai, were sentenced to life in prison. Ali was given 14 years – four of those on licence.

Iesha's, an Indian takeaway restaurant owned by the Miah family
Image:
Iesha’s, an Indian takeaway restaurant owned by the Miah family

Eleanor’s diary

A key character in Eleanor’s diary is the man now convicted of 40 counts of child abuse, Shah Joman Miah – Sarj.

The diary is dated from late 2019 to early 2020. In it, Sarj is frequently named as part of a controlling network of men. In the extracts below, we’ve replaced the names of other men with Z.

“Monday 21 October 2019… Had Snapchats from Z saying Sarj needs me in Blackburn tomorrow, said I had to get the train to Preston because they didn’t know for definite where Sarj wanted me.”

She also worries about Sarj being “pissed off” with her and references him being at so-called “parties” where men take money after she “goes with” certain people.

Feelings of intimidation also feature. “Tuesday 29 October 2019… Was watching out of my bedroom window and the car must have circled about three times. I got into bed and laid in the dark in silence. Had Z telling me not to piss Sarj off, Z saying I’m not to lose money.”

Sky News has digital evidence that the diary was written around the time it was dated. It wasn’t public knowledge at that time that police were investigating the Miah brothers for historical crimes.

Eleanor was convicted of lying about five men – Mo Rammy and four white men. But we can reveal that both Sarj and Jai’s names were brought up in her trial as among those she alleged had abused her, and what’s more – she was never charged with lying about them.

It was suggested during her trial that diaries were all part of her fabrication, along with faked messages and self-inflicted injuries – but it is a strange coincidence that a now convicted sex offender is in there. And he is not the only one.

Eleanor's mother Allison Johnston
Image:
Eleanor’s mother Allison Johnston

The warnings

Eleanor’s mother Allison emailed police in October 2019 warning that Sarj had brought a dangerous man to Barrow, who was seen “manhandling” her daughter in a club and later pulling out a knife.

We can’t name this man for legal reasons, but two years after the email was sent, he broke into a woman’s house in another town and sexually assaulted her. He was later jailed.

In the extracts we have of Eleanor’s diary, this man is named 36 times and is described as violent towards her. Sarj is referenced eight times. Most of the men she was convicted of lying about were not referenced in the diary in the extracts we’ve seen.

The diary may well be an extension of the fantasy, but there is other supporting evidence that something was happening to Eleanor.

Her former boss at a local pub spoke of her being intimidated by men while she was working. And her sister said she was grabbed by an Asian man in a nightclub and received threats on her phone over Snapchat.

Sky News obtained a psychiatric report, which referred to a medical professional who did not believe Eleanor’s injuries were self-inflicted. The forensic psychiatrist concluded she was suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder, and was likely to have been the victim of child sexual exploitation.

Social service reports also reveal intimate injuries – and obvious signs of drug taking – even though the police say she was often pretending to be on drugs and that the injuries were for show. But the thing about the diary that is hard to ignore is she is naming men who would go on to be convicted of offences against other women.

Sarj had allegations made against him by another teenager in Barrow, which were investigated by police in 2018, but the case ended with no further action.

He was also identified by Sarah, not her real name, in Hull as having abused her from the age of 13 and selling her for sex to more than 100 men over three years.

Humberside Police continue to investigate Sarah’s case.

“He’s not just an abuser; he’s a ringleader,” Sarah told Sky News. When it comes to Eleanor’s case, she thinks the fact that Sarj “is a guy that has abused people” should have been looked at.

Elizabeth, whose evidence against Sarj helped lead to his conviction, said: “If I’d have known she’d [Eleanor] named him, I would have went to the police myself and said, ‘why are you calling this girl a liar?’.”

Anonymous witness speaking to Sky News
Image:
Anonymous witness speaking to Sky News

‘I don’t class him as human’

Sarj wasn’t charged until 2020. Previously, he often worked for local businessman Mo Rammy, the central figure who Eleanor was found guilty of lying about.

Mo first employed Sarj back in 2012. He says he felt betrayed when he learned of his crimes. “I don’t class him as human. You’ve had that person with you for so many years and they’ve just lied to you.”

But he doesn’t believe Eleanor is telling the truth about Sarj because of her lies about others including him. “Why would you fabricate the whole story and let this one horrible filthy beast walk the streets? It doesn’t make sense… I can’t see how I can believe that girl.”

Cumbria Police told Sky News: “All of Eleanor’s allegations (including those emailed by her mother) were investigated thoroughly and there was no evidence of any involvement by the Miah brothers.

“This is not a case where there was not enough evidence to pursue what she was reporting but a case where allegations were proved to be lies with evidence fabricated in an attempt to support those lies, resulting in convictions for multiple offences of perverting the course of justice.”

The force says the successful conviction of the Miah brothers shows how seriously they take offences of this nature in Cumbria, and they encourage victims to come forward. We’ve put our allegations to solicitors representing the Miah brothers but have currently had no reply.

What was going through Eleanor’s mind when she posted those allegations on Facebook is still unclear. But, at least, we know what she wrote in her diary in the months before.

On 17 October 2019, she wrote: “Starting to think there’s (ligit) no point in defending myself or explaining. I’ll let whoever think whatever and need to be okay with my situation.”

Eleanor has now been released from prison but has not returned to Barrow. She did lie about events, and a jury found she fabricated evidence, but we now know there were other liars in this town – with other secrets.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK

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Council finances are becoming unsustainable and whole system overhaul is required, watchdog warns

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Council finances are becoming unsustainable and whole system overhaul is required, watchdog warns

From bin collections and parks to social care, it’s estimated local authorities in England provide more than 800 services for residents, touching on many different aspects of our lives all the way from childhood to elderly care.

A National Audit Office report found spending on services increased by £12.8bn – from £60bn to £72.8bn – between 2015-16 and 2023-24, a 21% increase in real terms.

Most of this increased spending – £10.3bn – has gone to adult and children’s social care, which represents councils’ biggest spend, increasing as a share of overall spending from 53% to 58% over the period.

Previous central funding cuts and an increasing population mean that spending power per person has largely stagnated, however, and remains 1% lower per person than in 2015/16, the report said.

This is a measure of the funding available to local authorities from central government grants, council tax and business rates. Though grant funding has increased in recent years, it has not yet made up for pre-2020 government cuts.

Complex needs

The population in England has increased by 5% over the period, accounting for some of this increased pressure, but it’s not the only driver.

In many areas, demand has outpaced population growth, as external events and the complexity of people’s needs has shifted over time.

The rapid increase in costs of temporary accommodation, for example, has been driven by the large increases in people facing homelessness because of inflationary pressures and housing shortages.

At the same time, demand for new adult social care plans has increased by 15%.

As life expectancies have increased, the length of time in people’s lives during which they suffer from health problems has also increased.

“We see that in adult social care that people have multiple conditions and need more and more support and often will be appearing as if they’re frailer at an earlier age. So that’s an important trend,” explained Melanie Williams, president of the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services.

“We’re constantly focusing on most urgent things at the expense of not doing the preventative work,” she added.

“When we’re just focusing on getting people home from hospital, we’re not doing that piece of work to enable them not to go there in the first place.”

Budget cliff edge over SEND spending

Meanwhile, demand for education, health and care (EHC) plans, for children with more complex special educational support needs has more than doubled, increasing by 140% to 576,000.

Budgets for special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) have not kept pace, meaning local authority spending has consistently outstripped government funding, leading to substantial deficits in council budgets.

Most authorities with responsibilities for SEND have overspent their budget as they have been allowed to until March 2026 on a temporary override, but they will need to draw on their own reserves to make these payments in a year.

One in three councils will have deficits that they can’t cover when the override ends.

Cuts to services

In the latest figures for 2023/24, the NAO found £3 in every £5 of services spending by English local authorities went towards social care and education, totalling £42.3bn.

This has left little headroom for other services, many of which have experienced real-terms financial cuts over the same time period, with councils forced to identify other services like libraries, parks and the arts to make savings.

But, Williams warned, cultural and environmental services like these can play a vital role in wellbeing and may actually exacerbate demand for social care.

“For us to be able to safeguard both adults and children – so people that need extra support – we do need that wider bit for councils to do,” said Williams, who also serves as corporate director of adult social care for Nottingham County Council.

“It’s no good me just providing care and support if somebody can’t go out and access a park, or go out and access leisure, or go out and have that wider support in the community.”

Commenting on the report, Cllr Tim Oliver, chairman of the County Councils Network, said: “As we have warned, councils have little choice but to spend more and more on the most demand-intensive services, at the expense of everything else – leaving them providing little more than care services.

“It is market-specific cost pressures, mainly in adult social care, children’s services, and special educational needs, that are driving councils’ costs rather than deprivation. Therefore government must recognise and address these pressures in its fair funding review, otherwise it will push many well-run councils to the brink.”

Fighting fires

The NAO report describes a vicious cycle where councils’ limited budgets have resulted in a focus on reactive care addressing the most urgent needs.

More efficient preventative care that could lower demand in the long term has fallen to the wayside.

In one example cited by the NAO, the Public Health Grant, which funds preventative health services, is expected to fall in real terms by £846m (20.1%) between 2015/16 and 2024/25.

Other areas have seen a switch in funding from prevention to late intervention.

Councils’ funding towards homelessness support services increased by £1.57bn between 2015/16 and 2013/24, while money for preventative and other housing services fell by £0.64bn.

Financing overhaul needed

Since 2018, seven councils have issued section 114 notices, which indicate that a council’s planned spending will breach the Local Government Finance Act when the local authority believes it’s become unable to balance its budget.

And 42 local authorities have received over £5bn of support through the Exceptional Financial Support (EFS) framework since its introduction in 2020.

According to a recent Local Government Association survey referenced in the NAO report, up to 44% of councils believe they’ll have to issue a section 114 notice within the next two years should the UK government cease providing exceptional financial support.

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Council tax to rise to pay for police funding increase
Councils to receive £1bn boost to tackle homelessness

Looking ahead to upcoming funding settlements, and the government’s planned reforms of local government, the NAO warns that short-term measures to address acute funding shortfalls have not addressed the systemic weaknesses in the funding model, with a whole system overhaul required.

Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, chair of the Committee of Public Accounts, said: “Short-term support is a sticking plaster to the underlying pressures facing local authorities. Delays in local audits are further undermining public confidence in local government finances.

“There needs to be a cross-government approach to local government finance reform, which must deliver effective accountability and value for money for taxpayers.”


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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