That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.
And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’sis on the rise.
“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%
“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”
While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.
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It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.
“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.
“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.
“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”
But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?
‘They have certainly got time’
According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.
He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.
“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”
To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.
“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.
“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”
‘Public is giving Labour a chance’
Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.
According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.
The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.
He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”
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Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?
Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.
“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”
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2:52
How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’
‘Learn lessons from America’
James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.
He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.
“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”
That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.
With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.
“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”
Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.
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2:07
100 days of Starmer
Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.
“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”
Can Labour bounce back?
Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.
Warnings of widespread disruption caused by freezing weather have been issued, with temperatures expected to plummet to as low as -16C in some areas.
Snow, ice and fog warnings have been issued, following on from severe weather on Wednesday, with the South West and south of England particularly affected by heavy snow.
All of the warnings are yellow, meaning there is a danger of injury from slips and falls and some disruption to travel expected.
Devon and Cornwall saw roads closed and motorists stationary for “long periods of time”, a joint statement from Devon and Cornwall Police and Devon County Council Highways said.
Snow ploughs became stuck in queues of traffic caused by “minor incidents”, the statement added.
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A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for northern Scotland until midnight on Thursday and another snow and ice warning is in force for Northern Ireland until 11am on Thursday as sleet and snow showers are set to continue.
Meanwhile, a yellow fog warning has been issued for Northern Ireland until 9am on Thursday.
A further yellow warning for snow and ice affecting Cornwall, much of Wales and parts of northwest England has been issued until 11am on Thursday.
And a yellow ice warning has been issued for parts of southern England and south-east Wales until 10.30am on Thursday.
Travel disruption to road and rail services are likely on Thursday in the warning areas, as well as the potential for accidents in icy places, the forecaster said.
As icy conditions persist, motorists are being urged to stick to major roads that are most likely to have been gritted.
Car insurer RAC said it has seen the highest levels of demand for rescues in a three-day period since December 2022.
The UK may have reached peak obesity and rates could start falling rapidly later this year, Sky News has been told.
Data collected by one of the biggest online sellers of weight loss jabs suggests that so many people are now taking effective medication that the inexorable rise in obesity could start to reverse.
According to Simple Online Pharmacy, which has access to wholesale figures, 500,000 people in the UK are currently taking either Mounjaro or Wegovy – and they can expect to lose 15% to 20% of their weight over a matter of months.
Rebecca Moore, the company’s chief operating officer, said: “Our projections are that around a million people will reverse their obesity in a year.
“We should be at the point now, we believe, where we’re starting to see rates decline.
“We would not be surprised if by the end of this year we’ve seen a really significant decline in obesity.”
The company has supplied the drugs to 200,000 people, who have collectively lost 600 tonnes of their weight.
Demand for medication is growing by 10% to 40% month-on-month, and the company has had to build a walk-in fridge to store enough medication to supply 400 patients an hour.
“The narrative has really shifted in the last few months,” said Ms Moore.
“People are recognising that obesity is a lifelong chronic condition. They’re recognising that this medication is a once-in-a-generation revolutionary technology.
“People are much more open to it and I expect that next year there will be another huge surge in growth.”
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2:33
The weight-loss drug that’s ‘too good’
Latest NHS figures show 27% of adults in England are obese, up from 15% in 1993.
Rates have started to plateau in the last couple of years as public health measures such as the sugar tax take effect.
But there are indications that obesity jabs have already begun to reverse obesity in the US and the same is likely to happen in the UK.
Around 95% of all patients using the medication are buying it privately, at a cost of around £150 a month.
Access on the NHS is poor, with research by Sky News showing just 800 patients had been prescribed Wegovy in specialist clinics four months after the rollout started in December 2023. That’s just 6% of the expected number.
And last month the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) bowed to demands from the NHS to restrict access to Mounjaro to just 200,000 of 3.4 million eligible patients over the first three years of the rollout.
Sarah Le Brocq, founder of All About Obesity, sits as a patient representative on the NICE committee.
She said it was “hugely frustrating” that so many patients in need are being denied treatment.
“It’s not the NHS’s fault that they can’t fund these drugs,” she said.
“They need to have that money coming through [from government] because they can’t take it from cancer and put it into obesity.
“We are going to have tiered access. The wealthy can be healthy, but people who really need treatment can’t have it.”
Angela Chesworth had to do a ‘clinical trial’ of treatment on herself to prove to the NHS that the drugs could stop agonising abdominal pains that she suffered several times a week.
Her consultant had agreed that her extra pounds were pulling on scar tissue from previous stomach surgery, but he was powerless to prescribe the treatment.
But since the summer, when she started weekly injections of Mounjaro, she has only had a couple of abdominal cramps and the NHS has now agreed to fund treatment.
“When you know there’s something out there that can help you, but you can’t have that help because of money or somebody who makes the rules, you feel worthless,” she told Sky News.
“Come and live in my shoes and see how I am and see how it affects me and then tell me I’m not worth the money.
“You want me to be part of society, you want me to do a job, you want me to expand the economy?
“I needed help, so it was very frustrating to be told no. And especially by the medical professionals.”
Her husband, Paul, is still having to buy his supply privately, despite being on the cusp of type 2 diabetes. After three months of treatment, he has lost two stone and is now healthy.
“I want to be healthy as long as I possibly can,” he said.
“For the last 15 years of his life my dad did not have good health or a good quality of life. He wasn’t able to get up in the morning quickly and ended up on a mobility scooter because he couldn’t walk far.
“All those things I want to try and avoid.”
The Department of Health said new drugs recommended by NICE need to be funded from existing NHS budgets. A spokesperson added: “We are also acting to tackle [obesity’s] causes, shifting our focus from treatment to prevention as part of our 10 Year Health Plan.”
Grocery shoppers are being warned of more hikes to food costs in the months ahead due to retailers passing on the cost of budget tax rises.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that food prices will increase by an average of 4.2% in the latter half of the year – piling more pressure on households at a time when consumers are already facing leaps in unavoidable costs including water, council tax and energy bills.
It blamed the impact of budget measures announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in October, which businesses have widely denounced as an attack on investment, jobs, and pay.
The retail body spoke up as many top retail brands reported on their Christmas progress ahead of April’s looming surge in costs.
Tesco warned of a £250m annual impact from higher employer National Insurance contributions alone from the next financial year while maintaining its annual profit forecast for 2024/25.
It cheered winning considerable market share over the festive season, leaving the UK’s biggest retailer in its best position since 2016.
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M&S reported robust growth in food sales, by 8.9% on a comparable basis, while growth in clothing and home and beauty was up by almost 2%.
Industry data released earlier this week already revealed Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Lidl and M&S were the big sales winners over Christmas, as far as groceries were concerned. Asda and the Co-op were seen as the main strugglers.
Ocado, which has a retail partnership with M&S, saw the largest growth in the online sphere.
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0:38
Warning of price hikes ahead
Much of the focus, however, is on the future given the volume of complaints within the sector – one of the country’s biggest employers – about the budget measures.
The key message since the fiscal event has been that shoppers will pay a price.
The industry sales data, revealed by Kantar Worldpanel on Tuesday, showed the annual rate of grocery price inflation at 3.7% in the four-week December period, its highest level since March, and a jump on the 2.6% reported for the 12 months to November.
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The BRC’s chief executive, Helen Dickinson, said on Thursday: “As retailers battle the £7bn of increased costs in 2025 from the budget, including higher employer NI (National Insurance), National Living Wage, and new packaging levies, there is little hope of prices going anywhere but up.
“Modelling by the BRC and retail chief financial officers suggest food prices will rise by an average of 4.2% in the latter half of the year, while non-food will return firmly to inflation.
“Government can still take steps to mitigate these price pressures, and it must ensure that its proposed reforms to business rates do not result in any stores paying more in rates than they do already.”
Despite the looming pressure ahead on supermarket margins from the budget, it is clear that grocery chains had a robust Christmas season.
Tesco boss Ken Murphy said: “We delivered our biggest-ever Christmas, with continued market share growth and switching gains.
“Our strong performance reflects the investments we have made, positioning Tesco as the UK’s cheapest full-line grocer for over two years, improving quality across all our ranges, with more than half of this year’s Christmas range new or improved, and providing the best experience for our customers in-store and online.”
His counterpart at M&S, Stuart Machin, said: “The external environment remains challenging, with cost and economic headwinds to navigate, but there is much within our control.
“At M&S, we stay close to our customers and their needs, and with that in mind our investment in trusted value, along with great quality, style and innovation remains our priority.”