As Starmer’s approval rating plummets, Farage is on the rise: Can Labour turn things around?

Published

4 hours ago

November 23, 2024

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“We are in unchartered territory.”

Sir John Curtice understands polling like few others, but you do not have to be an expert to see the Labour government has had a rough start.

It’s been less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory and already two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off.

That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.

And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’s is on the rise.

“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%

“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”

Labour are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.

While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.

It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.

“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.

“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.

“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”

But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?

‘They have certainly got time’

According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.

He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.

“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”

To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.

“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.

“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”

‘Public is giving Labour a chance’

Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.

According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.

The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.

He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”

That does not mean being complacent, however.

Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?

Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.

“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”

‘Learn lessons from America’

James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.

He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.

“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”

That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.

With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.

“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”

Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.

Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.

“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”

Can Labour bounce back?

Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.

As Sir John reminds us, there’s only really one event a leader cannot recover from – which Liz Truss knows all too well.

“If you preside over a market crisis, it’s game over – you are dead,” he says.

“Other than that, it’s delivery, delivery, delivery.”

UK

Gatwick Airport: Police release two people who were detained amid security incident as South Terminal reopens

Published

30 mins ago

November 23, 2024

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Gatwick Airport: Police release two people who were detained amid security incident as South Terminal reopens

Two people detained during a security incident at Gatwick Airport have been allowed to continue their journeys after a suspect package saw a “large part” of the South Terminal evacuated.

The terminal was closed for hours after the discovery of a “suspected prohibited item” in a passenger’s luggage sparked an emergency response. It reopened at around 3.45pm.

Officers from the EOD (Explosive Ordnance Disposal) team “made the package safe” before handing the airport back to its operator, Sussex Police said.

Their statement continued: “Two people who were detained while enquiries were ongoing have subsequently been allowed to continue their journeys.

“There will remain an increased police presence in the area to assist with passengers accessing the South Terminal for onward travel.”

The force also thanked the public and airport staff for their patience while the incident was ongoing.

Earlier the airport, which is the UK’s second busiest, said the terminal was evacuated after a “security incident”.

“The earlier security alert has now been resolved and cleared by police,” it later said in a statement on Friday afternoon.

“The South Terminal is reopening to staff and will be open to passengers shortly.”

Gatwick said some flights were cancelled while others were delayed.

It said passengers should contact their airlines for any updates on flights.

Footage on social media taken outside the airport showed crowds of travellers heading away from the terminal building.

“Arrived at London Gatwick for routine connection. Got through customs to find out they’re evacuating the entire airport,” one passenger said.

“Even people through security are being taken outside. Trains shut down,” another passenger added, who said “thousands” of people were forced to leave.

Another passenger said people near the gates were being told to stay there and not go back to the departure lounge.

People outside the airport were handed blankets and water, passengers told Sky News.

The airport said its North Terminal was still operating normally.

Gatwick Express said its trains did not call at Gatwick Airport during the police response, but the airport said trains would start calling there again once the terminal was fully reopened.

More than 600 flights were due to take off or land at Gatwick on Friday, amounting to more than 121,000 passenger seats, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.

UK

Starmer says UK will ‘set out a path’ to raise defence spending to 2.5%

Published

4 hours ago

November 23, 2024

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Starmer says UK will 'set out a path' to raise defence spending to 2.5%

The UK will “set out a path” to lift defence spending to 2.5% of national income in the spring, the prime minister has said, finally offering a timeframe for an announcement on the long-awaited hike after mounting criticism.

Sir Keir Starmer gave the date during a phone call with Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, in the wake of threats by Moscow to target UK and US military facilities following a decision by London and Washington to let Ukraine fire their missiles inside Russia.

There was no clarity though on when the 2.5% level will be achieved. The UK says it currently spends around 2.3% of GDP on defence.

Ukraine war latest: Follow live updates

A spokeswoman for Downing Street said that the two men “began by discussing the situation in Ukraine and reiterated the importance of putting the country in the strongest possible position going into the winter”.

They also talked about the deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers to fight alongside Russia.

“The prime minister underscored the need for all NATO countries to step up in support of our collective defence and updated on the government’s progress on the strategic defence review,” the spokeswoman said.

“His government would set out the path to 2.5% in the spring.”

The defence review will also be published in the spring.

While a date for an announcement on 2.5% will be welcomed by the Ministry of Defence, analysts have long warned that such an increase is still well below the amount that is needed to rebuild the armed forces after decades of decline to meet growing global threats from Russia, an increasingly assertive China, North Korea and Iran.

They say the UK needs to be aiming to hit at least 3% – probably higher.

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, there will be significantly more pressure on the UK and other European NATO allies to accelerate increases in defence spending.