That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.
And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’sis on the rise.
Image: Ipsos favorability towards politicians
“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%
“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”
While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.
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It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.
“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.
“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.
“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”
But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?
‘They have certainly got time’
According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.
Image: Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.
“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”
To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.
“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.
“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”
‘Public is giving Labour a chance’
Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.
According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.
The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.
He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”
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Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?
Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.
“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”
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2:52
How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’
‘Learn lessons from America’
James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.
He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.
“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”
That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.
Image: Labour need to learn from the Democrats’ losses, say pollsters
With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.
“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”
Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.
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2:07
100 days of Starmer
Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.
“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”
Can Labour bounce back?
Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.
In the middle of Liverpool city centre, musician Ami Alex is showing me a TikTok she posted while busking on the street.
But instead of showcasing her singing, it shows a man approaching her repeatedly, coming closer and closer. He reaches out and touches her – wiping something wet on her arm.
“At first I thought it was coffee,” she says. “But when I watched the video back – you can hear him saying ‘that’s my pee’. My jaw dropped. I was horrified.”
It’s hard to believe what she’s showing me, but she says this kind of behaviour is “unfortunately standard for a woman doing this kind of work”.
She has many more videos – of men touching her without her consent, or demanding hugs or kisses for the money they’ve given.
“I’ve gotten a lot better at dealing with it,” she says. “When I was 21, 22, when I first started doing this, I would go home in tears.
“It’s just so degrading. It makes you feel objectified. Like – is that all you think of me?”
Sarah Everard’s murder in 2021 caused outrage across the country. There was an outpouring of anger as women shared their stories of feeling unsafe, threatened and sexualised on the streets.
At the time there were promises – assurances to women that things would have to change. But four years on, many women here in Merseyside say they have the same feelings they did then.
“Men are honestly shocked when we tell them ‘we don’t feel safe’,” says Kate Chadwick, from the Wirral charity Tomorrow’s Women. “Pretty much every woman has had some kind of experience.”
Image: Kate Chadwick
I meet her at a regular lunch club they host – at their building where men are not allowed inside. It’s intended as a safe space for their members, who they are helping through everything from domestic violence to sexual assault. There’s a medical clinic here, beauty treatment rooms, a computer lab – all staffed by women.
Kate shows me the pocket rape alarm they give out to the women who come here. She hopes they never have to use it, but “it makes them feel safer just having it”.
Image: Women helped by the charity are given pocket rape alarms
“As a woman, in the winter it’s a hard time just to exist,” Kate says. “Women don’t feel safe coming out of their homes. Routines will change. They don’t want to walk in certain places.
“One of our members gets two buses home because it’s safer than waiting at a dark bus stop to just get the one.”
They are about to launch a photography exhibition around stalking and harassment. For this, they gave their members a camera and asked them to submit photos that show their experience being a woman.
There are several photos of dimly lit streets, bus stops with no one else there. One photo is a fist holding a key through the knuckles – an image most women will recognise.
Another picture is of an outfit laid out on the floor – a T-shirt, denim skirt and tights. It’s titled What Were They Wearing?
“This can often be the first question in a sexual assault case,” Kate says. “It really doesn’t matter what the woman was wearing.”
“It’s definitely not getting better,” she says. “In 2024, violence against women and girls was declared a national emergency. The statistics you read every day are shocking.”
Later that evening, back in Liverpool, we meet Girls on the Go – a running club started with the express purpose of allowing women to exercise safely in the winter. It’s 5.15pm when we meet for the run, and already dark.
The women running here list a collection of similar experiences. They have been catcalled, yelled at from cars, even chased while out running alone.
Image: Girls on the Go helps women exercise safely in winter
Run leader Madeline Cole tells me that, as a women-only club, they have had to modify their warm-ups because “as soon as you bend over to touch your toes, or go into a squat, the shouting starts”.
Founder Steph Barney says she started the club because it is still “intimidating running alone as woman”.
“Far too many women experience harassment and catcalling – we wanted to create a group where women would feel safer doing it together” she says. “Even in the summer you get sexualised just for wearing shorts. You have to restrict what you do. None of my male friends have ever had to worry about that.”
I ask if anything would help them feel safer when out on their runs. “Better street lighting is a really obvious one,” she says. “And one of the issues is that it’s still not taken seriously by society. When you’re catcalled, it feels embarrassing to say ‘this is scary’.
“If it was taken more seriously – more women would speak out. And more could be done.”
The Angiolini Inquiry – which was established to investigate the circumstances surrounding Sarah Everard’s murder – is due to publish its latest report later today.
It is examining whether there a risk of it happening again, police culture, and broader concerns surrounding women’s safety in public spaces.
The police watchdog will today publish its report into the actions of officers during and after the Hillsborough disaster in 1989.
The Independent Office for Police Misconduct (IOPC) has been investigating South Yorkshire Police since 2012.
It is the largest independent investigation into alleged police misconduct and criminality ever carried out in England and Wales.
Hillsborough remains to this day the worst disaster in British sporting history.
Image: Fans, police, and emergency services on the pitch during the disaster. All pics: Action Images via Reuters
How did we get here?
A crush on the terraces during the FA Cup semi-final at the stadium in Sheffield resulted in the death of 97 Liverpool fans– men, women, and children aged from 10 to 67.
Even as fans lay dying, police were claiming that Liverpool supporters, arriving in large numbers late, drunk and without tickets, caused the disaster. But after decades of campaigning, that narrative was debunked.
In April 2016, new inquests – held after the original verdicts of accidental death were quashed in 2012 – determined that those who died had been unlawfully killed.
The IOPC told victims’ families in March that no officers would face misconduct proceedings because legislation in place at the time did not require police to have a duty of candour.
Dozens of allegations of misconduct against officers had been upheld, it said, but none would face disciplinary proceedings because they had all left the police service.
Image: The 97 victims of the Hillsborough disaster
What has this probe looked at?
The IOPC investigation focused on amendments made in accounts of officers who were present at Hillsborough and allegations that misleading information was passed by the police to the media, MPs, parliament, and the inquiries set up immediately after the disaster.
It has also been looking into the role of West Midlands Police, which led the investigation into the disaster, and allegations that family members and campaigners were subject to surveillance by the police.
The IOPC has already confirmed that its investigation “aligned” with the findings of the Hillsborough Independent Panel investigation and the 2016 inquests.
It said: “We found no evidence to support police accounts to the media, the Taylor Inquiry and both sets of inquests, which suggested that the behaviour of supporters caused or in any way contributed to the disaster.”
Sir Keir Starmer has warned China poses “real national security threats to the United Kingdom”.
But the prime minister also described China as a “nation of immense scale, ambition and ingenuity” and a “defining force in technology, trade and global governance”.
“The UK needs a China policy that recognises this reality,” he added in a speech at the Guildhall in London.
“Instead, for years we have blown hot and cold.
“So our response will not be driven by fear, nor softened by illusion. It will be grounded in strength, clarity and sober realism.”
Image: Prime Minister Keir Starmer giving his speech. Pic: Reuters
Describing the absence of engagement with China – the world’s second-biggest economy – as “staggering” and “a dereliction of duty”, Sir Keir said: “This is not a question of balancing economic and security considerations. We don’t trade off security in one area, for a bit more economic access somewhere else.
“Protecting our security is non-negotiable – our first duty. But by taking tough steps to keep us secure, we enable ourselves to cooperate in other areas.”
Sir Keir’s remarks come after MPs and parliamentarians were warned last month of new attempts to spy on them by China.
That case led to controversy over how the government under Labour responded to the Crown Prosecution Service’s requests for evidence.
Image: Speech at the annual Lady Mayor’s Banquet. Pic: Reuters
At the time, Sir Keir sought to blame the previous Conservative government for the issues, which centred on whether China could be designated an “enemy” under First World War-era legislation.
Meanwhile, Sky News understands the prime minister is set to approve plans for a controversial Chinese “super embassy” in central London.
A final decision on the planning application for the former Royal Mint site near the Tower of London is due on 10 December, after numerous previous delays.
Sir Keir is also understood to be preparing for a likely visit to China in the new year.
Since he was elected last year, Sir Keir has been active on the world stage, trumpeting deals with the US, India and the EU and leading the “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine.
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1:05
PM preparing for likely China visit
But he has also faced criticism from his opponents, who accuse him of spending too much time out of the UK attending international summits rather than focusing on domestic issues.
Sir Keir offered a defence of his approach, describing it as “the biggest shift in British foreign policy since Brexit” and “a decisive move to face outward again”.
While saying he would “always respect” the Brexit vote as a “fair, democratic expression”, he said the way the UK’s departure from the EU had been “sold and delivered” was “simply wrong”.
He said: “Wild promises were made to the British people and not fulfilled. We are still dealing with the consequences today.”
In his speech on Monday, the prime minister accused opposition politicians of offering a “corrosive, inward-looking attitude” on international affairs.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: Reuters
Taking aim at those who advocate leaving the European Convention on Human Rights or NATO, he said they offered “grievance rather than hope” and “a declinist vision of a lesser Britain”.
Sir Keir said: “Moreover, it is a fatal misreading of the moment, ducking the fundamental challenge posed by a chaotic world – a world which is more dangerous and unstable than at any point for a generation, where international events reach directly into our lives, whether we like it or not.”
He added: “In these times, we deliver for Britain by looking outward with renewed purpose and pride, not by shrinking back. In these times, internationalism is patriotism.”
Responding to the prime minister’s speech, shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel said: “From China’s continued flouting of economic rules to transnational repression of Hong Kongers in Britain, Starmer’s ‘reset’ with Beijing is a naive one-way street, which puts Britain at risk while Beijing gets everything it wants.
“Starmer continues to kowtow to China and is captivated by half-baked promises of trade.
“Coming just days after the latest Chinese plot to interfere in our democracy was exposed, his love letter to the Chinese Communist Party is a desperate ploy to generate economic growth following his budget of lies and is completely ill-judged.
“While China poses a clear threat to Britain, China continues to back Iran and Russia, and plots to undermine our institutions. Keir Starmer has become Beijing’s useful idiot in Britain.”