As Starmer’s approval rating plummets, Farage is on the rise: Can Labour turn things around?
“We are in unchartered territory.”
Sir John Curtice understands polling like few others, but you do not have to be an expert to see the Labour government has had a rough start.
It’s been less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory and already two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off.
That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.
And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’s is on the rise.
Ipsos favorability towards politicians
“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%
“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”
Labour are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.
While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.
It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.
“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.
“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.
“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”
But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?
‘They have certainly got time’
According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.
Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.
“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”
To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.
“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.
“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”
‘Public is giving Labour a chance’
Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.
According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.
The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.
He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”
That does not mean being complacent, however.
Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?
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Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.
“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”
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How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’
‘Learn lessons from America’
James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.
He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.
“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”
That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.
Labour need to learn from the Democrats’ losses, say pollsters
With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.
“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”
Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.
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100 days of Starmer
Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.
“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”
Can Labour bounce back?
Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.
As Sir John reminds us, there’s only really one event a leader cannot recover from – which Liz Truss knows all too well.
“If you preside over a market crisis, it’s game over – you are dead,” he says.
“Other than that, it’s delivery, delivery, delivery.”
Three people have died following a helicopter crash during a flying lesson on the Isle of Wight.
A fourth person is in hospital in a serious condition following the incident, according to Hampshire Police.
Officers were called to the scene of a “helicopter that had come down” off Shanklin Road near Ventnor at 9.24am on Monday, the force said.
A spokesman for the aircraft’s owner Northumbria Helicopters said G-OCLV – which is listed as a Robinson R44 II helicopter – was involved in the accident during a flying lesson.
Fire and rescue vehicles at the scene near Ventnor. Pic: Stu Southwell
Aerial view of the crash site
Four people, including the pilot, were on board the aircraft, which departed nearby Sandown Airport at 9am, the company also said in a statement.
A critical care team, including a doctor and specialist paramedic, was also sent to the crash site, Hants and Isle of Wight Air Ambulance added, alongside fire engines and other emergency vehicles.
The Air Accidents Investigation Branch confirmed it was alerted to the incident and was sending a team to investigate. A major incident was declared but has since been stood down.
A spokesperson for Hampshire and Isle of Wight Air Ambulance said in a statement: “We have treated and airlifted one patient to the Major Trauma Centre, University Hospital Southampton. Our thoughts are with them, and everyone involved in today’s incident.”
Darren Toogood, editor and publisher at the Island Echo, told Sky News presenter Kamali Melbourne the helicopter crashed on a “significantly busy, high-speed road” between the village of Godshill and the seaside town of Shanklin.
“It was on one of the first flights of the day,” he said.
“It’s a bank holiday weekend in August on the Isle of Wight. It’s an incredibly busy area. Lots of tourists down at the moment. It appears no vehicles were involved, which is incredible, given how busy this road would have been this morning.”
A witness, Leigh Goldsmith, told the Isle of Wight County Press she saw the helicopter “spiralling” before crashing into a hedge as she drove along the road.
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Police have closed Shanklin Road, blocking it off with several emergency vehicles, and are warning people to avoid the area.
Northumbria Helicopters said it is “giving its full cooperation to the authorities investigating this incident”.
Joe Robertson, the MP for Isle of Wight East, said the local community was in shock.
“My heart goes out to the families of those who lost their lives in the helicopter crash outside Shanklin today,” he said in a statement. “It is very sad and tragic news during what should have been a happy Bank Holiday helicopter flight from Sandown Airport. The whole community is in shock.
“My sincere thanks to all the emergency services personnel who have been involved and to the investigators for their work ahead.”
UK
‘Tamed’ algorithms and plummeting porn views: Impact of new online safety rules revealed one month on
Sweeping new rules designed to deal with the “total Wild West” young people were experiencing online have now been in place across the UK for a month.
Ofcom’s Children’s Codes require pornography and other harmful content to be kept away from young people, either through age verification or algorithm changes.
More than half a million people have signed a petition calling for the Online Safety Act to be repealed, while ministers insist the legislation’s been a success.
So what difference have these controversial new regulations made?
‘I feel more clean’
In the days before they were enforced, Sky News spoke to a group of teenagers at a youth club in Warrington, and their experiences online were stark.
They told us about frequently stumbling across violence, pornography and harmful mental health content in their social media feeds.
One 17-year-old described seeing more harmful and inappropriate content online “than I can count”. Even a 12-year-old described being shown language that “can be quite explicit for children my age”.
So, one month later, we spoke to some of the teenagers again. The difference in what they reported was remarkable.
Ryan, 17, told us previously that the internet was a “very, very malicious” place and described frequently seeing inappropriate content.
Just one month on, he says his algorithm now seems “tamed” – although he’d still describe the internet as malicious.
“[My] algorithms have been quite tame in comparison to what they were. I haven’t seen any sort of advertisements and stuff that can be alluding towards anything inappropriate,” he said.
Liam, 16, also said Instagram felt “tamed” compared to what it was like before.
He was previously being served a lot of eating disorder content but “in the time that the rules have been in place I don’t actually think I’ve seen any”.
“I used to see them every few scrolls so it’s very much gone down.”
Young people gathered at the Warrington Youth Zone to talk to Sky News about online safety
Seventeen-year-old Indie said she now feels like she “can actually scroll on the internet worry-free of what’s going to pop up”. Abbey, 17, also said she feels less worried about scrolling now.
“I feel really good about [the new rules] because now I don’t have to worry about seeing things I don’t want to see,” she said.
Ryan, 15, previously told us he was frequently being shown violent content that would ruin his day. Now, “when I’m scrolling TikTok, I’m free from violence”, he said.
“It feels better, to be honest. I feel more clean, in a sort of way, because like, I’ve not seen it.”
Of the six teenagers we re-interviewed, only one – 15-year-old Oliver – said he hadn’t really noticed a change.
However, harmful content is still sometimes being shown to teens, we soon found out.
Self-harm content on TikTok
We decided to test the social media platforms ourselves, inspired by an experiment run by the Molly Rose Foundation (MRF) in the weeks running up to the rules being enforced.
At that time, MRF found their teen Instagram and TikTok accounts were bombarded with self-harm and suicide content.
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Sky News experimented with fake teen accounts to see whether harmful content was still available
One month later, we created TikTok and Instagram accounts belonging to a 15-year-old and searched for terms relating to suicide and self-harm.
On Instagram, all three search terms took us to a mental health support page, signposting to helplines and advice.
On TikTok, however, that wasn’t the case.
One search term took us to a mental health support page, similar to Instagram’s.
Another search term showed the message “no results”.
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Teens targeted with ‘suicide content’
But a third, relating to a specific type of self-harm, brought up numerous posts that should no longer be shown to young people under Ofcom’s guidance.
Some posts used euphemisms, others were more explicit about their content. None of it should be available to children in the UK now.
In response to our experiment, a TikTok spokesperson said:
“TikTok has designed 70+ features and settings that support the safety and well-being of teens and families on our app, and we partner with organisations such as Samaritans and the International Association for Suicide Prevention to bring well-being resources directly to our community.
“We continually enforce comprehensive Community Guidelines, with over 99% of violative content proactively removed by TikTok.
“This single account does not reflect the real experience of a teen on our platform.”
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‘Children as young as six’ finding porn
Pornography views plummet…
But a lot of the controversy about these rules hasn’t come from children. Adults use the internet too and the new age verification rules seem to have impacted the way they surf the web.
Not everyone’s happy about it.
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What are the new online rules?
In the days after the new rules came in, hundreds of thousands of people signed a petition to repeal the Online Safety Act, the legislation that underpins Ofcom’s regulations.
Despite the government responding to that petition to say it had “no plans” to repeal the act, the number of signatories has now passed half a million.
“We all want children to be safe online, but I don’t think those benefits outweigh the significant costs, not just to millions of low-abiding children and adults in the UK, but also the effect this is having elsewhere around the world,” said Matthew Feeney, advocacy manager at Big Brother Watch.
He brought up privacy concerns before the rules were introduced and says he’s still concerned, having seen them in action.
“It’s doing the UK no favours internationally,” he said. “No other liberal democracy has taken steps like this in this kind of way.
“There are ways to talk about child safety online without embracing this approach to the internet, which treats everyone as a child by default.”
In Westminster, the rules proved controversial too; when Reform leader Nigel Farage said his party would repeal the act if elected, Technology Secretary Peter Kyle responded on Sky News by saying Mr Farage was “on the side of predators”.
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“Anybody who thinks this legislation is going to be perfect in this moment must think again,” said Baroness Beeban Kidron, founder of 5Rights and a longtime supporter of the new legislation.
“It should not be a conversation about attackers, detractors, defenders. What we have to do is go again, and again, and again until we get the balance right.”
One of the most obvious ways general internet use has changed since the rules came in is through pornography.
According to a recent report by the Children’s Commissioner, the world’s four largest pornography sites received nearly 11 billion visitors each month in 2020; more than the number of visitors to Amazon, LinkedIn, Netflix, Zoom and eBay combined.
But within a day of the new regulations, the number of UK visitors to pornography sites plummeted – and has stayed low.
Data given to Sky News by Similarweb showed that between 19 July and 15 August, there was a 45% drop in the number of UK users to Pornhub, the country’s most popular pornography site.
Across the top 100 sites, there was a 33% drop.
Even pornography-based forums took a hit – Subreddits linked to bondage, discipline, sadism, and masochism (BDSM), for example, are experiencing 12% fewer visits from the UK than before the rules were introduced.
But that doesn’t necessarily mean the UK has lost its appetite for adult content.
But VPN use seems to be up
At the same time as UK porn visits were plummeting, the use of virtual private networks (VPNs) was rocketing, as people bypassed new age verification pages altogether.
VPNs mask their users’ location and may mean that plenty of people were accessing porn… they just didn’t look like they were in the UK.
The number of people searching for VPNs on Google spiked dramatically in the days after the rules were introduced.
Although the interest has waned, it is still higher than pre-regulation levels.
Five out of Apple’s top 10 downloaded apps were VPNs just one day after the rules started being enforced.
Baroness Beeban doesn’t believe it is children using VPNs to bypass age verification.
“I’ve actually found it extraordinary that the assumption is that all of the VPN surge is children. Think about it carefully.
“A lot of it will be adults who are actually trying to hide their own behaviour now that you actually have to be a bit more transparent.”
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK
A campaign encouraging people to use headphones when playing music on public transport is being rolled out in London from today.
Posters will begin appearing on the Elizabeth line on Tuesday reminding travellers not to play music out loud or to have conversations on speaker mode, as it may disturb other passengers.
It is the latest part of Transport for London’s Travel Kind campaign, which is being rolled out across the wider transport network.
Rules around train travel already make playing music out loud an offence. But like other issues, such as fare evasion, this is subject to being enforced by the British Transport Police or the train operators themselves.
People using their phones for loud content has become a political issue in recent months, with both the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives urging ministers to take action on it.
Earlier this year, the Lib Dems called for fines of up to £1,000 for “headphone dodgers” who play music out loud on buses and trains, while Tory shadow transport secretary Richard Holden said passengers should not have to “endure somebody else’s choice of crap music”.
Seb Dance, deputy mayor of London for transport, said the small minority who “play music or videos out loud can be a real nuisance to other passengers and directly disturb their journeys”.
“However Londoners spend their journey, whether catching up on their favourite series or listening to music, we want everyone to have a pleasant journey.”
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A previous Travel Kind campaign encouraged travellers to offer priority seating to those who need it. Pic: Transport for London
Posters will also encourage people to look up from their phones and to be aware that others travelling may be in need of a seat.
Previously, the Travel kind campaign included calls for vigilance about sexual harassment and urged travellers to move down inside London’s Tube carriages to ensure others can get on.
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