As Starmer’s approval rating plummets, Farage is on the rise: Can Labour turn things around?
“We are in unchartered territory.”
Sir John Curtice understands polling like few others, but you do not have to be an expert to see the Labour government has had a rough start.
It’s been less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory and already two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off.
That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.
And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’s is on the rise.
Ipsos favorability towards politicians
“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%
“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”
Labour are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.
While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.
It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.
“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.
“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.
“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”
But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?
‘They have certainly got time’
According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.
Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.
“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”
To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.
“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.
“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”
‘Public is giving Labour a chance’
Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.
According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.
The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.
He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”
That does not mean being complacent, however.
Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?
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Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.
“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”
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How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’
‘Learn lessons from America’
James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.
He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.
“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”
That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.
Labour need to learn from the Democrats’ losses, say pollsters
With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.
“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”
Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.
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100 days of Starmer
Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.
“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”
Can Labour bounce back?
Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.
As Sir John reminds us, there’s only really one event a leader cannot recover from – which Liz Truss knows all too well.
“If you preside over a market crisis, it’s game over – you are dead,” he says.
“Other than that, it’s delivery, delivery, delivery.”
Sex offenders could face chemical castration and thousands of offenders will be released after serving a third of their jail term, under plans proposed in a sentencing policy review set to be accepted by ministers.
The independent review, led by the former justice secretary David Gauke, was commissioned by the government amid an overcrowding crisis in prisons in England and Wales.
It has made a series of recommendations with the aim of reducing the prison population by 9,800 people by 2028.
The key proposal, which it is understood the government will implement, is a “progression model” – which would see offenders who behave well in jail only serve a third of their term in custody, before being released.
The measure will apply to people serving standard determinate sentences, which is the most common type of jail term, being served by the majority of offenders.
It will be based on sentence length, rather than offence type. That means sex offenders and domestic abusers serving sentences of under four years, could all be eligible for early release.
The policy will mean inmates serve only a third of their sentence in prison, a third on licence in the community, with the remaining portion under no probation supervision at all.
If the offender committed further offences in the “at risk” – or final – stages of their sentence, once out of prison, they would be sent back to jail to serve the remainder of the original sentence, plus time inside jail for the new offence.
Chemical castration trial could be extended
The government will also further the use of medication to suppress the sexual drive of sex offenders, which is currently being piloted in southwest England.
The review recommended that chemical castration “may assist in management of suitable sex offenders both in prison and in the community”.
Ministers are to announce plans for a nationwide rollout, and will first expand the use of the medication to 20 prisons across England.
The justice secretary is also considering whether to make castration mandatory. It’s currently voluntary.
Violent offenders who are serving sentences of four years or more could be released on licence after spending half of their sentence behind bars. This could be extended if they do not comply with prison rules. These prisoners would then be supervised in the community until 80% of their sentence.
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Inside one of Britain’s most overcrowded prisons
Domestic abuse commissioner criticises plans
In response to the review, the police have warned: “Out of prison should not mean out of control.”
“If we are going to have fewer people in prison, we need to ensure that we collectively have the resources and powers to manage the risk offenders pose outside of prison,” said Chief Constable Sacha Hatchett at the National Police Chiefs Council.
The domestic abuse commissioner for England and Wales, Nicole Jacobs, said adopting the measures would amount to “watering down” the criminal justice system.
“By adopting these measures the government will be sending a clear message to domestic abusers that they can now offend with little consequence,” she said.
In a set of proposals considered to be the biggest overhaul of sentencing power laws since the 1990s, judges could be given more flexibility to punish lower level offenders with bans on football or driving.
The review has also recommended that short sentences should only be used in “exceptional circumstances”, suggesting they are “associated with higher proven reoffending” and “fall short in providing meaningful rehabilitation to offenders”.
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Is government ‘prepared to be unpopular’ over prisons?
The Howard League for Penal Reform has welcomed the proposals as a “good start”.
“This is a vital review that makes the case for change by focusing on the evidence on what will reduce reoffending and prevent more people becoming victims of crime,” said chief executive Andrea Coomber.
David Gauke’s review has called on the government to “invest” in a probation service that is “under significant strain”, as its proposals recommend a larger number of offenders should be punished and supervised in the community.
“Tagging can be a useful way to monitor offenders and identify escalating risks,” it said.
The government is set to invest a further £700m in the probation service and introduce a mass expansion of tagging technology, where tens of thousands of criminals will be monitored at any one time, creating a “prison outside of a prison”, with the help of US tech companies.
‘Overriding concerns’
The Victims Commissioner, Baroness Newlove, has expressed an “overriding concern” about the ability of an “already stretched probation service” to “withstand the additional pressure” of managing a larger number of people outside of prison.
The policy review also makes recommendations around offenders that are recalled to prison after breaching their licence conditions.
Currently, around 15% of those behind bars are there because they have been recalled. Mostly, it’s for breaching of licence conditions, rather than further offences.
The review recommends a “tighter threshold” for recall so that it is “only used to address consistent non-compliance”, with licence conditions – which can include missing a probation appointment.
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Last week the government announced plans that will see offenders serving one to four-year sentences held for a fixed 28-day period if they are returned to jail.
The review suggests increasing that limit to 56 days, in order to “allow sufficient time for planning around appropriate conditions for safe re-release into community supervision”.
The government is expected to accept the review’s key measures, and implement them with a sentencing bill before parliament.
The plans will likely require legislation and only be before the courts by the spring of 2026.
UK
UK calls for investigation after IDF fired warning shots as British diplomats travelled through West Bank
The UK government is calling for Israel to launch an investigation after the country’s troops fired warning shots while British diplomats were travelling through the West Bank.
Diplomats from Ireland, France, Germany and Turkey were also travelling with the delegation in the city of Jenin when the gunshots rang out on Wednesday.
All four countries have condemned the shooting, which comes after Western nations criticised Israel’s latest offensive in Gaza.
Two British diplomats are understood to be among the group of around 20 people who have been confirmed as safe following the incident in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.
Footage shows the moment members of the delegation were gathered outside before fleeing the scene as the gunshots rang out.
Foreign Office minister Hamish Falconer has described the incident in Jenin as “unacceptable”.
He wrote on X: “I have spoken to our diplomats who were affected. Civilians must always be protected, and diplomats allowed to do their jobs. There must be a full investigation and those responsible should be held accountable.”
Follow latest: Gaza conflict live updates
Members of the delegation flee as gunshots are fired
In response to the situation, UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy has announced measures, including financial restrictions and travel bans, targeting prominent settler leader Daniella Weiss and two other individuals.
The measures also target two illegal outposts and two organisations accused of backing violence against Palestinian communities.
It came after Ireland’s deputy premier Simon Harris condemned the shooting in “the strongest terms” and France’s foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot said he would summon the Israeli ambassador over the incident.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s foreign ministry said the shooting showed Israel’s “systematic disregard for international law” and called for an immediate investigation.
Germany’s foreign office had earlier condemned what it referred to as “unprovoked gunfire”, adding: “We are fortunate that nothing worse occurred.”
The Israeli military said the delegation had “deviated from the approved route” of their visit and Israel Defence Force (IDF) soldiers fired warning shots to push them from the area.
The IDF apologised and said it would contact all countries involved in the visit.
The shooting took place a day after the UK announced it would cease all talks of a trade deal with Israel, and summoned the country’s ambassador to make clear Britain is unhappy with the situation in Gaza.
Members of the delegation flee as gunshots are fired
Hospitals in northern Gaza encircled by IDF
Elsewhere, staff and aid groups have said that two of northern Gaza’s last functioning hospitals have been encircled by Israeli troops – preventing anyone from entering or leaving.
The Indonesian and al Awda hospitals are among the region’s only remaining medical facilities, with both coming under fire this week.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director general of the World Health Organisation, has warned Israel’s military operations and evacuation orders “are stretching the health system beyond the breaking point”.
Just 20 of the territory’s 36 hospitals remain partially functioning – with centres in northern Gaza now said to be “at a serious risk of shutting down completely”.
According to the WHO, there have been almost 700 attacks on medical facilities since the war began.
Israel’s military has accused Hamas of using hospitals as command centres and to hide fighters, but has only provided evidence for some of these claims.
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Elsewhere, UK ministers announced they will send £4m of aid to Gaza, including essential medicines, safe drinking water and food parcels.
Minister for development Jenny Chapman, who is visiting Israel and the occupied territories, said the lack of aid reaching Gazans is “appalling”.
She added: “The Israeli government’s failure to allow full humanitarian access to aid workers is abhorrent. Far too few trucks are crossing into Gaza.
“The UN has warned nearly half a million Palestinians, including children, are facing starvation.
“The UK is clear – Israel will not achieve security through prolonging the suffering of the Palestinian people.”
It comes as British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said humanitarian aid needs to get into Gaza “at pace”.
On Wednesday, Downing Street did not rule out more sanctions on Israeli ministers after a report said Number 10 and other countries were drawing up plans to target key figures in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
Sir Keir’s official spokesman said he would not speculate on future sanctions but added it has been made clear that if Israel does not cease its military offensive and lift aid restrictions then the UK will take further “concrete actions”.
The shooting in the West Bank came hours before the Israeli military said 100 aid trucks carrying flour, baby food and medical equipment had travelled from the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza.
Palestinian workers unload an aid truck, in Khan Younis. Pic: Reuters
The transfer of aid into Gaza has become an increasingly controversial topic over the last couple of days as the international community fears the territory is on the brink of famine.
The UN said earlier that no aid has been distributed in Gaza since Mr Netanyahu said an 11-week blockade on the territory had been lifted.
On Wednesday evening, the Israeli prime minister held a news conference where he said he would not allow European leaders to “influence” Israel after he was asked about the diplomatic row over the gunfire in Jenin and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
“We have to complete the war,” Mr Netahayu said. “We are going to continue what is needed to end the war.”
He said it was a “mark of shame” that Britain was sanctioning Israel and not Hamas, calling the sanctions an “absolutely horrible thing”.
Friends of Jay Slater have failed to appear as witnesses at an inquest into his death – as a coroner heard the British teenager had drugs in his system before he died from a “devastating” head injury.
Jay Slater, 19, from Oswaldtwistle in Lancashire, disappeared in Tenerife after attending a music festival in June last year.
In the early hours of the following day, he is believed to have travelled to an apartment where people he had met were staying – before he went missing.
His body was recovered in a remote part of La Masca village on 15 July following an extensive search of the island by authorities and his family.
The valley where Mr Slater’s body was found in Tenerife
His mother Debbie Duncan, stepfather and other family members attended the inquest into Mr Slater’s death at Preston Coroner’s Court on Wednesday.
Ms Duncan broke down in tears as she told the hearing she still had questions that needed answers.
The hearing, scheduled to last one day, was told extensive efforts had been made to reach several witnesses who were in contact with Mr Slater before he disappeared, which included summonses being issued.
However, a number of witnesses had failed to respond, including Mr Slater’s friends Bradley Geoghegan, Brandon Hodgson and Lucy Law, who were out with him at the music festival.
Jay Slater disappeared in Tenerife in June last year before his body was found the following month. Pic: LBT Global/Slater family
The two men who were staying at an Airbnb that Mr Slater went back to before he disappeared have also not been traced.
Ms Duncan said: “How can we ever get any understanding?
“There’s things we want to question. We want these people to be sat in front of us, because our son went on holiday and didn’t come back, so there’s questions we need to ask.”
Coroner Dr James Adeley agreed to adjourn the hearing, at the request of Mr Slater’s tearful mother, who asked for the witnesses to be brought to court to give evidence before the inquest concludes. A further hearing date has yet to be set.
Earlier, the court heard analysis of Mr Slater’s body showed traces of drugs including cocaine, ketamine and ecstasy.
During Wednesday’s hearing, Home Office pathologist Dr Richard Shepherd detailed Mr Slater’s injuries.
Mr Slater died from a ‘devastating’ head injury, a coroner heard. Pic: PH Build Group
He described “extensive fractures of the left side of his head… extending into the bottom of his skull”.
Mr Slater also sustained “fractures to the left side of the pelvis and hip joints”.
Dr Shepherd said the injuries were “entirely consistent with a heavy fall, from a height, landing on his head”.
Asked by the coroner if there was any suggestion of assault or restraint, he replied: “Nothing to suggest an assault, gripping, holding, nothing of that sort.”
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Dr Adeley asked the pathologist about the impact of Mr Slater’s injuries.
Dr Shepherd replied: “It would have had an immediate and devastating effect on Jay’s consciousness.
“The injuries were so severe I have no doubt he would have been instantly unconscious from the moment of that blow to the head. Death could well have been instant, the injury was so severe.”
Failing that, it would have most likely occurred “extremely soon after” the fall, he added.
Dr Shepherd gave an official cause of death as a head injury.
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