As Starmer’s approval rating plummets, Farage is on the rise: Can Labour turn things around?
“We are in unchartered territory.”
Sir John Curtice understands polling like few others, but you do not have to be an expert to see the Labour government has had a rough start.
It’s been less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory and already two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off.
That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.
And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’s is on the rise.
Ipsos favorability towards politicians
“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%
“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”
Labour are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.
While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.
It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.
“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.
“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.
“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”
But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?
‘They have certainly got time’
According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.
Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.
“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”
To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.
“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.
“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”
‘Public is giving Labour a chance’
Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.
According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.
The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.
He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”
That does not mean being complacent, however.
Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?
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Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.
“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”
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How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’
‘Learn lessons from America’
James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.
He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.
“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”
That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.
Labour need to learn from the Democrats’ losses, say pollsters
With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.
“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”
Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.
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100 days of Starmer
Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.
“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”
Can Labour bounce back?
Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.
As Sir John reminds us, there’s only really one event a leader cannot recover from – which Liz Truss knows all too well.
“If you preside over a market crisis, it’s game over – you are dead,” he says.
“Other than that, it’s delivery, delivery, delivery.”
The mistaken release of an asylum seeker who was jailed for sexual offences has prompted widespread condemnation – and an extensive police operation.
Hadush Gerberslasie Kebatu, 38, had assaulted a 14-year-old girl and a woman in Epping, about a week after he had crossed the Channel and arrived in the UK by boat.
Last night, the teenager’s father was visibly upset as he turned up at HMP Chelmsford – asking for answers on how Kebatu was freed just one month into a 12-month sentence.
He did not want to speak on camera – but told Sky correspondent Mollie Malone that he was “frustrated” at the thought of the Ethiopian national being back on the streets.
“The justice system has let us down,” he said.
Footage has emerged that appears to show Kebatu in Chelmsford town centre following his release – dressed in prison clothes and clutching his belongings in a see-through bag.
He then headed to the railway station and boarded a train bound for London’s Liverpool Street, which departed at 12.41pm yesterday.
Follow latest developments on manhunt
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Accidental release ‘damaging’ for government
‘You couldn’t make it up’
Kebatu’s case had a high profile and led to weeks of protests outside the Bell Hotel in Epping, where he was staying alongside other asylum seekers.
When he was sentenced last month, Judge Christopher Williams warned he posed a “significant risk of reoffending”.
The Liberal Democrat MP for Chelmsford, Marie Goldman, told Sky presenter Barbara Serra she was “appalled, frustrated and angry about how this could possibly happen in the first place”.
She said it is clear something went “fundamentally wrong” at HMP Chelmsford – and her constituents are “fed up” with systems not working and underinvestment.
“It just destroys trust at a time when emotions are riding high. We’ve seen protests over the past few weeks and months, and there’s a lot of fear out there,” Ms Goldman added.
“It is so easy to lose trust and really hard to gain it – we need the government to get a grip on this.”
Protests were held at The Bell Hotel for several weeks
Shadow home secretary Chris Philp described Kebatu as a “dangerous illegal immigrant” – and said his premature release shows “staggering incompetence”.
He told Sky News: “We also need an urgent apology from Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Justice Secretary David Lammy who have presided over this fiasco.”
Mr Lammy, who also serves as deputy prime minister, has said he is “appalled” and “livid on behalf of the public that Kebatu is at large”.
He confirmed a full investigation is being launched, adding: “He should be deported back to Ethiopia after the sexual assaults that he’s committed.”
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Manhunt continues for Kebatu
Extensive policing operation under way
Multiple forces are now involved in the manhunt for Kebatu – including Essex Police, the British Transport Police and the Metropolitan Police in London.
Policing commentator Graham Wettone told Sky presenter Gillian Joseph that detectives will be carefully piecing together his movements after walking free from HMP Chelmsford.
“All these forces will now be looking at the CCTV from the train itself – trying to locate him on the train and trying to identify at which stop he went off at, and where he went from that station,” he explained.
Mr Wettone said information from Essex Police’s initial investigation – including the contacts, friends and associates he had at the Bell Hotel – will also be a factor.
Questions will also be asked of the prison authorities: “Has he had any visits or phone calls? Has he got any friends or family in the country?”
He added that additional officers will have been allocated to the manhunt: “The Met will have some significant resources looking for him – maybe the Territorial Support Group or additional borough-based officers in and around Liverpool Street first of all.”
The British Transport Police could also be involved in further inquiries if Kebatu ended up travelling on the Underground.
“It really depends on where that thread goes – if they can locate where he got off, and then where he went to,” Mr Wettone said.
“This work is very, very fast-paced – there are detectives and intelligence officers working in the background, chasing up on leads and updating the teams on the ground.”
Experts are warning that without “fast changes” the UK could run out of drinking water in the future.
The first seven months of 2025 were the driest since 1976, with reservoirs across England only 56.1% full on average, according to the Environment Agency.
“I think that we do need to worry about the fact that there is this possibility we could run out,” Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology from Reading University, told Sky News.
“It’s only if we start thinking like that, that we’re going to start conserving our water, otherwise we just take it completely for granted.
“It is all of our fault, we have not been paying attention to what’s going on… we need some very fast changes to the way that we are using water and the way that we’re storing water in order to stop this being a problem in the future, because our summers are only going to get hotter.”
By 2050, the government says that England could face a shortfall of five billion litres of water every day.
‘Growing pressure’ on water system
A Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs spokesperson said: “This government recognises the growing pressure on our water system and is taking decisive action.
“We’re delivering over £104bn of private investment to fix leaking pipes, build nine new reservoirs and secure our water supply for the future.”
Latest figures suggest that around 2,690 megalitres of water is lost every day in England through leaks – the equivalent of 1,076 Olympic-sized swimming pools.
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‘We have invested an extra £10m’
“Leaks are a really important issue for us. We have invested an extra £10m just to deal with the weather that we’ve seen this summer,” said Dr Geoff Darch, head of strategic asset planning for Anglian Water.
Anglian Water is also hoping to build two new reservoirs in the East of England.
“We don’t want to stop people using water, it is absolutely essential for everything that we need it to do,” Dr Darch said.
“But I think we’ve got to a point now where we have to realise that water is a precious resource, it’s something that we all have to look after so that we have it for future generations and for the environment and with climate change and drought, we will need more reservoirs.”
The government claims it is fast-tracking new reservoirs to address the problem
Concerns about ‘whole system starting to collapse’
In August, the UK received just 62% of its average rainfall, according to the Met Office, which is leading a group of residents to monitor their water stocks closely.
“We collect all our own water from the rain, and so if we don’t have the rain that’s a significant issue,” explained Simon Tilly, director of the Hockerton eco housing project in Nottinghamshire.
He told Sky News they were working together to use less water.
“I suppose I’m most concerned about the whole system starting to collapse. There’s potential for longer droughts and us having a lot of water stress, there’s potential for a lot of floods when the drought finishes… and just generally that system going into random patterns where we’re getting more droughts and more floods,” he added.
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