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“We are in unchartered territory.”

Sir John Curtice understands polling like few others, but you do not have to be an expert to see the Labour government has had a rough start.

It’s been less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory and already two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off.

That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.

And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’s is on the rise.

Ipsos favorability towards politicians
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Ipsos favorability towards politicians

“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%

“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”

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Labour are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.

While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.

It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.

“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.

“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.

“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”

But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?

‘They have certainly got time’

According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.

Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
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Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.

He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.

“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”

To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.

“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.

“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”

‘Public is giving Labour a chance’

Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.

According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.

The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.

He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”

That does not mean being complacent, however.

Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?

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Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.

“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”

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How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’

‘Learn lessons from America’

James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.

He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.

“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”

That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.

Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris reacts as she delivers remarks, conceding 2024 U.S. presidential election to President-elect Donald Trump, at Howard University in Washington, U.S., November 6, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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Labour need to learn from the Democrats’ losses, say pollsters

With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.

“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”

Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.

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100 days of Starmer

Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.

“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”

Can Labour bounce back?

Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.

As Sir John reminds us, there’s only really one event a leader cannot recover from – which Liz Truss knows all too well.

“If you preside over a market crisis, it’s game over – you are dead,” he says.

“Other than that, it’s delivery, delivery, delivery.”

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Babies born with DNA from three people in the UK – to prevent ‘devastating’ illness with no cure

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Babies born with DNA from three people in the UK - to prevent 'devastating' illness with no cure

Eight babies have been born in the UK with DNA from three people following a procedure to eliminate an incurable inherited disease.

It is a major advance for the technique, called mitochondrial donation therapy, designed to prevent a life-limiting, often fatal illness caused by genetic mutations in the structures that generate energy in all our cells.

It is also a test of the UK’s permissive but highly regulated stance on human embryo research that allowed a technique once criticised for creating “three-parent babies” to proceed.

Screen grab taken from handout video of a diagram showing the embryo replacement procedure.
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This image shows the embryo replacement procedure. Pic: PA

The babies, four girls and four boys – two of them identical twins – were all born in the last five years and are healthy, according to research published in the New England Journal of Medicine.

“It’s a great success for these families,” said Sir Doug Turnbull, emeritus professor at the University of Newcastle who helped pioneer the treatment.

“This is a devastating disease with no cure and without this technique, they would not feel that their families were free of mitochondrial disease. This gives them that opportunity.”

Mitochondrial disease affects around one in 5,000 babies born in the UK.

Depending on the number and type of mutations in their mitochondria, the severity and type of disease can vary, but includes neurological, metabolic and developmental disorders.

Only women at high risk of passing on severe disease qualify for the procedure, provided though a specialist facility at Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust.

The identities of the seven families and their babies are being withheld, but a mother of one of the baby boys speaking anonymously said: “The emotional burden of mitochondrial disease has been lifted, and in its place is hope, joy, and deep gratitude.”

A diagram showing an embryo o created by mitochondrial donation. Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

How does the technique work?

The procedure involves removing the genetic information from an affected mother’s fertilised embryo before inserting it into one from a healthy female donor, from which the genetic information has been removed.

Crucially, the hundreds of thousands of diseased mitochondria are left behind, leaving the new embryo with healthy ones present in the donor embryo.

Mitochondria contain a tiny amount of their own unique genetic code, so the resulting babies carry DNA from three different people.

But because it represents just 0.02% of our total DNA and has no bearing on genetic traits we inherit from our parents, researchers behind the technique, have never liked the “three-parent” moniker.

However, the technique – whatever you choose to call it – isn’t perfect.

A total of 22 women underwent the procedure but only seven became pregnant, resulting in eight births – a 36% success rate.

Five of the eight babies were born with no trace of disease.

But tests on the other three revealed a small percentage of mutated mitochondria had been carried over during the procedure.

Read more from Sky News:
‘My voice box was removed after NHS missed my throat cancer’
World’s biggest human imaging project reaches milestone

While they are at levels too low to cause mitochondrial disease, the babies will require careful follow-ups to ensure they continue to develop normally.

“We have designed a study specifically for that purpose,” said Professor Bobby McFarland, who leads the service in Newcastle.

“That’s what is unique about us offering this in Newcastle because there isn’t anywhere else in the world that’s doing this in a regulated way.”

While there’s good reason to expect the children will develop normally, the procedure does take medicine into new territory.

Because mitochondria contain their own genetic code, girls born via the technique – carrying those from the healthy donor – will pass that on to any children they may have in future.

Changing the “germ-line” in such a way has raised ethical concerns.

But for seven new families, and more to follow, the procedure promises to cure a disease that has affected their families for generations.

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Acid attacks rise in UK – with 25% of them in an area that’s home to just 2% of the population

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Acid attacks rise in UK - with 25% of them in an area that's home to just 2% of the population

The number of acid attacks has risen 10% in a year, according to a Freedom of Information request to UK police forces.

Acid Survivors Trust International (ASTI) said its analysis shows 498 physical attacks involving corrosive substances were recorded in 2024 – compared with 454 in the previous year.

According to the charity, the real figure is likely to be even higher because of under-reporting by victims.

In 2023, both Northumbria Police and the Metropolitan Police recorded the highest number of physical attacks – 18% and 16% respectively.

But figures in 2024 showed a significant fall in attacks in London, dropping by 78%, while cases in Northumbria rose substantially.

ASTI executive director Jaf Shah told Sky News that attacks in Northumbria account for almost 25% of the nationwide total – despite making up just 2% of the population.

He explained: “Historically, London has always seen the highest number attacks, which is unsurprising because of the population. But what we’ve seen in the 2024 data is a massive drop in the number of attacks in London to just 16.

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“Whereas in Northumbria we’ve seen a 49% increase to 121 attacks, so there’s a massive disparity in terms of numbers, especially relative to population figures for each of those corresponding areas. So this is obviously a very worrying trend.”

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In July 2024, four men were handed life sentences for ammonia murders

Mr Shah added there was supporting evidence about the type of attacks taking place in the Northumbria force area.

“Professor Francisco Figueiredo, who is head of ophthalmology at Newcastle University … certainly picked up on an increase of young men receiving treatment with corrosive injuries in the eye.

“A lot of the injuries he’s treated are related to the use of ammonia … that’s quite different to some of the attacks we’ve seen in other parts of the UK where sulphuric acid is commonly used.”

West Midlands Police also recorded a significant increase in attacks – rising 82% between 2023 and 2024 – and making up 12% of the UK total.

ASTI states the FOI data reveals acid attacks in the UK are historically associated with male-on-male violence and often linked to gang activity.

Of the 224 physical attacks where gender data was recorded, a third of victims were female, reflecting the increasing use of acid as a weapon of violence against women and girls.

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How Clapham chemical attack in January 2024 unfolded

ASTI also commissioned research, conducted by Frontier Economics, which concluded that the financial impact of all acid attacks in 2024 was more than £31m.

The study estimated that a single attack costs £63,000, consisting of the medical and psychological support victims require and paying for the criminal justice system to deal with perpetrators.

ASTI also told Sky News it was recommending reforms to tackle the “lack of robust checks on sales of corrosives”, especially via online retailers.

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Acid attack ‘devastates lives’

Commander Stephen Clayman, National Police Chiefs’ Council lead for corrosive substances, said an attack “devastates lives and causes physical and psychological damage to victims that can last a lifetime” and officers were committed “to tackle this appalling crime”.

In a statement, he added: “Many corrosive substances are available over the counter at supermarkets and DIY stores.

“It is important that law enforcement and government work closely with retailers themselves, to enhance our intelligence picture, and determine the best ways to keep these products from falling into the hands of people who intend to use them to cause harm.

“Serious crimes such as this should not go unreported and we want victims to feel able to come forward and report these matters to us.”

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Red House: 62 people now say they experienced abuse at children’s home run by a ‘cult’

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Red House: 62 people now say they experienced abuse at children's home run by a 'cult'

“It was like hell on Earth.”

Warning: This article includes references to sexual abuse and suicide that some readers may find distressing.

Colin (not his real name) is one of 19 alleged abuse victims who has come forward following a Sky News investigation into a closed children’s home in Norfolk.

The total number is now 62.

Red House

Numerous people have told us that they experienced physical, emotional and sexual abuse at The Small School at Red House run by a Danish organisation called Tvind, which has been described as a cult.

Colin was taken into care after being a victim of sexual exploitation, but when he arrived at The Red House at 15, his personal, painful history was used against him.

“A couple of the lads grabbed hold of me,” he said. “They’d been told that I was a rent boy before I got there, they wanted to knock me into shape. I contemplated killing myself. I’d never experienced that humiliation.”

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Children were sent to The Red House from all over the country. Some have told Sky News that violent staff broke their fingers, threw them down the stairs and even locked them in rooms with Alsatians.

Red House

Sadly for Colin, his experience of sexual exploitation continued at the home.

“They put these three lads in my room, they squeezed me round my neck and I passed out,” he said. “When I came round they were sexually abusing me. I was screaming and screaming. The next day I ran and I never went back there.”

The home was run by the Tvind School Cooperative of Denmark. A controversial group founded in the late 1960s, they opened around 30 radical schools in Denmark, mostly for disadvantaged children, and two in England. Many have since closed.

Tvind

Inspections by regulatory bodies reveal growing concerns about The Red House. In 1990, the Social Services Inspectorate wrote to directors of local authorities warning them against sending children to the home.

An inspection report made by Norfolk County Council in 1994 shows they were aware of alleged “sexual abuse” and “physical abuse” involving 20 children.

Yet the home continued to operate and three years after that inspection report, Norfolk County Council sent a teenage boy to the Red House.

Red House

“Red House was this black hole where they could just dump people and not worry about them,” he says.

“Whilst I was there I can’t even think of one instance when my social worker turned up to come and check on me.”

He is one of the many alleged victims in the process of suing Norfolk County Council and the local authorities which sent children to the home.

Read more:
The Red House: The children’s home run like a cult
The Danish group behind a children’s home run like a cult

Sky's Alice Porter with Colin

Daniel Lemberger Cooper is representing victims on behalf of Imran Khan and Partners.

“[We] urge Norfolk Council, who are the centre of this and whose geographic area Red House was based, to tell the truth. They were aware very early on … about abuse and allegations of abuse and they failed to act.”

Victims are also being supported by the Shirley Oaks Survivors Association who are urging any more people to come forward.

The home was shut down in 1998. Norfolk Police have done two investigations into allegations of abuse but no one has been charged.

The Red House in Norfolk

Those still working for Tvind in Denmark say they are not associated with the former cooperative.

Norfolk County Council says: “We continue to investigate and respond to those private claims through the appropriate legal channels.

“Our thoughts are with all survivors of abuse but, as there is an ongoing legal claim relating to Red House, we cannot comment further at this time.”

People can contact the Shirley Oaks Survivors Association by visiting: www.smallschoolredhouse.co.uk.

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.

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