“We are in unchartered territory.”
Sir John Curtice understands polling like few others, but you do not have to be an expert to see the Labour government has had a rough start.
It’s been less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory and already two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off.
That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.
And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’s is on the rise.
Ipsos favorability towards politicians
“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%
“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”
Labour are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.
While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.
It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.
“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.
“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.
“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”
But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?
‘They have certainly got time’
According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.
Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.
“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”
To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.
“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.
“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”
‘Public is giving Labour a chance’
Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.
According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.
The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.
He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”
That does not mean being complacent, however.
Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?
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Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.
“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”
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How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’
‘Learn lessons from America’
James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.
He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.
“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”
That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.
Labour need to learn from the Democrats’ losses, say pollsters
With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.
“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”
Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.
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100 days of Starmer
Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.
“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”
Can Labour bounce back?
Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.
As Sir John reminds us, there’s only really one event a leader cannot recover from – which Liz Truss knows all too well.
“If you preside over a market crisis, it’s game over – you are dead,” he says.
“Other than that, it’s delivery, delivery, delivery.”
UK
Family of man who committed murder after escaping from mental health unit say they were ‘failed’ by NHS trust
The family of a man who committed murder during an escape from a secure mental health unit have told Sky News they were “failed” by the trust that was meant to be caring for him.
Joshua Carroll is currently waiting to be sentenced for the murder of Headley Thomas, known as Barry, after beating him to death in a park in Trafford, Manchester, in September 2022.
At the time of the attack, Joshua was in the care of Greater Manchester Mental Health Trust (GMMH). He was being treated as an inpatient at Park House, a unit which has now closed down.
Joshua’s mum and sister say he escaped from the unit 21 times – and they repeatedly complained to the trust and asked for help.
Headley Thomas, who was known as Barry
Leanne Carroll, Joshua’s sister, told Sky News: “The night it happened, Joshua had come to my house. And it was just a normal ‘oh Joshua has escaped from hospital again’. Nothing appeared any different.”
She says they didn’t find out about what had happened until Joshua was arrested weeks later – and “everything fell apart from there”.
Julie and Leanne Carroll
“My heart broke,” said Joshua’s mum, Julie Carroll. “It’s just a horrible, horrible situation.”
Joshua had been diagnosed with conditions including schizoaffective disorder, and had been in and out of inpatient care for around 15 years, his family said.
They showed me more than 20 pages of complaints and responses from GMMH about his repeated escapes, dating back eight years before the murder.
After Joshua’s fourth escape from Park House, his family asked for him to be moved to another unit, saying they were concerned about security.
This didn’t happen, with the trust citing capacity issues. His family complained once again about his escapes just five weeks before the murder, in August 2022.
“We are very, very angry and disappointed,” said Julie. “You think if your child is in hospital, and they are very poorly, that they are going to be looked after – they will be safe and they will be secure. But that wasn’t the case for Josh.”
Julie Carroll says her “heart broke” after her son’s crime came to light
Although Joshua was convicted of murder, Leanne says his family hold GMMH partly responsible.
“If you had done your job properly – none of this would have happened,” she said. “Two families wouldn’t have been destroyed and so many hearts wouldn’t have been broken.”
Since 2022, GMMH has been served with several Section 29A warning notices by the Care Quality Commission. These are issued when the commission decides a service needs to make significant improvements, and there is a risk of harm.
In the case of GMMH, their concerns included “ward security systems not consistently keeping people safe”.
Dr John Mulligan is a clinical psychologist for GMMH, working in the community for the early intervention in psychosis service, and a representative for the union Unite.
Dr John Mulligan
He and his colleagues have been going on strike repeatedly across the past seven months, saying they just don’t have the staffing levels they need to keep people safe.
“Thankfully, violent incidents among our service users are quite rare, they are much more likely to be the victims of violence and aggression,” he said. “But serious incidents are happening regularly. Far too regularly.
“It’s very upsetting for staff and for patients and families.”
Joshua Carroll . Pic: Greater Manchester Police
Salli Midgley, chief nurse at the Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust said: “On behalf of GMMH, we express our heartfelt condolences to Headley Thomas’s loved ones at this very sad time.
“Our thoughts and sympathies remain with everyone who has been affected by this most devastating incident. We are deeply sorry that it happened while Joshua Carroll was under our care.
“Under the trust’s new leadership, we have been working closely with NHS England, our commissioners and the CQC to create better, safer and well-led services for all.”
The Carroll family asked for Joshua to be moved to a different unit after his escapes
She continued: “A huge amount of progress has already been made but we know we still have a lot to do to improve our services.
“As part of this work, we are currently carrying out an in-depth investigation into the care and treatment provided to Mr Carroll, and the circumstances leading to Mr Thomas’ death, the findings of which will be shared with NHS England.
“We are unable to comment further on this case whilst the investigation is ongoing.”
Barry Thomas’s family told Sky News mental health is a very serious issue – but they believe Joshua Carroll tried to “play down his actions”.
They said: “Let’s all remember that a life was taken. Our brother, father, and uncle. The evidence the police gathered was in plain sight for all to see.
“We, the family, would like to thank all the police involved for the work they have done, in bringing justice for Barry.”
UK
Hashem Abedi: Manchester bomb plotter moved back to Belmarsh prison after guards attacked in jail in Durham
The Manchester Arena bomb plotter Hashem Abedi has been moved back to Belmarsh prison after an alleged attack at HMP Frankland on Saturday.
Three prison officers at the high-security jail in County Durham were attacked with cooking oil before being stabbed with an improvised weapon.
Abedi has been transferred to Belmarsh prison in southeast London where he’d previously been found guilty of attacking a prison officer in 2020, along with two other convicted terrorists.
Belmarsh is considered the most high-security prison in the UK.
Abedi has been moved to the only available highly-controlled ‘suite’ cell in the country – a standalone self-contained unit monitored by a minimum of five people at any one time, and a prison dog.
There are only four such cells across England and Wales.
Abedi was convicted of assisting the Manchester terror plot, in which his brother Salman Abedi killed himself and 22 other people by detonating a bomb in a rucksack at an Ariana Grande concert in May 2017.
Hashem Abedi was sentenced in 2020 to at least 55 years in prison after being found guilty of 22 counts of murder over the atrocity.
Salman Abedi before the concert attack. File pic: PA
Meanwhile, the government has said it will commission a review into the incident at HMP Frankland, after suspending access to cooking facilities in separation units, which is where the alleged attack took place.
Sky News understands the Prison Officers Association, after visiting staff who were on duty at the category A jail this week, have written to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer calling for urgent action in order to protect prison staff in the high-security estate.
The union wants to see prison officers working there given stab-proof vests, access to tasers in certain situations, and not just a suspension of self cooking facilities in separation units but a full ban.
Separation units house the country’s most dangerous and violent criminals.
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Belmarsh prison in southeast London. File pic: PA
There have been a series of violent attacks across prisons in England and Wales, only days apart.
On Sunday, convicted killer John Mansfield was found dead at a category A prison, HMP Whitemoor, in Cambridgeshire. Police said they arrested a 44-year-old man on suspicion of murder.
Sky News also understands there was an incident on Tuesday lunchtime at HMP Lowdham Grange in Nottinghamshire.
A specialist ‘response group’ consisting of officers from outside the prison were deployed to bring the situation under control, along with a ‘hostage’ situation, while prisoners climbed on the roof and netting. The situation was brought under control within an hour.
Prisons minister Lord Timpson said it was “another sign of the problems we are facing in our prison with prisons that are overcrowded and violent”.
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