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  • David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterNov 24, 2024, 12:55 AM ET

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    • College football reporter.
    • Joined ESPN in 2012.
    • Graduate of the University of Delaware.

Somewhere, Greg Sankey is asking ChatGPT to write an argument in favor of the SEC still gobbling up every vacant playoff spot despite Saturday’s results, and a bunch of servers in Texas are smoking and sputtering and deciding that humanity isn’t worth overtaking.

After weeks of lamentations that the SEC has eaten itself because of the depth of quality in the league, it wasn’t the quality teams that feasted in Week 13. It was the hungry, huddled masses of Auburn, Florida and Oklahoma.

The matinee of this horror festival saw Florida, a team given up for dead a month ago, grant Lane Kiffin his wish to avoid the SEC championship game by delivering a stunning 24-17 win over No. 9 Ole Miss.

That sound you’re hearing? That’s the sound of thousands of Florida fans deleting message board and other social media posts imploring the school to fire Billy Napier and back up a Brink’s truck to land Kiffin as the Gators’ next head coach.

DJ Lagway threw two touchdown passes, Montrell Johnson ran for 107 yards and a score, and the Florida defense racked up three takeaways — including picking off Jaxson Dart on each of Ole Miss’ final two drives — to secure the win.

In the aftermath, Florida players slapped a Gators logo on Ole Miss’ prop basketball hoop and proceeded to dunk — figuratively and literally — on the Rebels.

All of that set up this walk of shame by the Ole Miss equipment staff, forced to recover the hoop with the Gators logo still on it.

That might be the most embarrassing moment involving a basketball hoop since all of the 76ers games this year.

The meat in this Misery McRib came courtesy of Oklahoma, a team so bereft of offense that it fired its coordinator and decided Saturday to just let the defense handle the bulk of the scoring.

The Sooners picked off Jalen Milroe three times in the 24-3 win over No. 7 Alabama, gaining bowl eligibility and handing the Tide a third loss in the regular season for the first time since 2010.

Oklahoma rarely threw the ball in the win, with Jackson Arnold completing just 9 of 11 throws for 68 yards, but he added a game-high 131 on the ground. It was a coming-of-age performance for the young QB, and it also offered some hope to a fan base that had been clinging to Lincoln Riley’s struggles as the only source of happiness in 2024.

The grand finale of the SEC’s assault on mediocrity came on The Plains, as Texas A&M roared back from a 21-0 deficit to take a late lead only to see Auburn tie it on a short kick with seconds to then win it in a fourth overtime when a Marcel Reed pass was dropped in the end zone.

On one hand, it was deflating to see the Aggies play this many overtimes in a game that didn’t end with Jimbo Fisher’s nephew picking a fight with someone. But worse, it also was loss No. 3 on the season for Texas A&M, putting its playoff hopes on life support, too.

And so here’s where the SEC stands with just one Saturday remaining in the regular season: Texas is 10-1 with the renewal of the rivalry against A&M awaiting. Georgia, Tennessee and the Aggies all have two conference losses, but the Dawgs did officially clinch a spot in the conference title game. Alabama and Ole Miss are officially out of the SEC title race.

But forget those standings. Consider this:

Texas was demolished by Georgia, its only game against a team with seven or more wins this year.

Ole Miss beat Georgia, but has lost to Kentucky and Florida.

Alabama beat Georgia, but has lost to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma.

Tennessee beat Alabama, but lost to Arkansas.

A&M beat Missouri and LSU, both ranked in the top 10 at the time, but lost to Auburn.

South Carolina‘s key wins — A&M and Missouri — don’t look so impressive anymore, while the teams the Gamecocks lost to (LSU, Bama and Ole Miss) all have ugly losses themselves now.

So, sure, the SEC has depth. Thirteen teams are now bowl eligible (and Auburn could join them with an Iron Bowl win next week). But it’s hard to argue that depth is the reason the conference is so chock full of teams scuffling along the fringes of the playoff. It’s one thing to make the case an SEC team with more losses warrants special consideration compared with Indiana or SMU or Arizona State when those losses come against Georgia or Texas. It’s another thing when Vanderbilt is involved in the equation.

It’s almost as if the top of the SEC is both quite good and inherently flawed, like every season of “24.” There’s no great reason to suggest the SEC won’t be the last league standing when the first 12-team playoff comes to an end, but there’s also no reason to assume it warrants the lion’s share of the at-large bids either.

So, when the ACC is hilariously punching its third ticket to the dance, and Clemson coach Dabo Swinney pops out of a coffin like The Undertaker, don’t go blaming the committee. Things look different after Week 13. There is no real hierarchy, no conference supremacy. There are a handful of clearly good teams — Oregon, Ohio State, Georgia — and a whole lot of question marks after that.

In the end, that’s probably more fun for everyone.

Well, everyone except Sankey.

Jump to:
So long, Cinderellas | Big 12 chaos | Penn State survives
Miami rebounds | SMU clinches | Nebraska is bowl bound
Illinois survives | Saluting fired coaches
Beavers win Pac-12 | Week 13 trends
Heisman five | Under the radar

Sayonara, Cinderella

In every Cinderella story, there is a point when the clock strikes midnight and the magic wears off, and the beautiful damsel turns back into the 13th-best team in the Big Ten.

In some rare cases, the prince seeks her out anyway, glass slipper in hand, and they live happily ever after. Most of the time though, Cinderella ends up scrubbing kitchens and cleaning the chicken coop and telling her wicked stepsisters that, no, seriously, the committee once had her ranked No. 5 in the country.

Indeed, Saturday held no happy endings for 2024’s Cinderellas. Ohio State crushed Indiana; Kansas, back from the dead, demolished Colorado; and Notre Dame, eager to ruin the hopes and dreams of American patriots everywhere, steamrolled Army.

Perhaps this was all inevitable. Indiana entered play undefeated, but also had the No. 106 strength of schedule, according to ESPN. Army, too, was undefeated, but its schedule was even worse — No. 133. Colorado was 7-2, with the No. 73 schedule and a loss to the only ranked (at game time) team it had played. This wasn’t the work of magic, but of a favorable path to playoff contention.

On Saturday, that path led to a trio of brick walls.

Indiana entered Saturday looking for a movie-like script, hoping to become the first Hoosiers to ever overcome the odds against a heavily favored opponent on a big stage. Unfortunately, after Curt Cignetti pulled out a ladder to measure the height of Ohio State’s D-linemen, it was pretty clear they had no chance. The Buckeyes’ front dominated the Indiana O-line, holding Kurtis Rourke to just 8-of-18 for 68 yards passing and racking up five sacks in a dominant 38-15 win. After an initial 11-play, 70-yard touchdown drive, the Hoosiers managed just 81 more yards in the game.

Curt Cignetti, the college football coach most likely to still post his Wordle results to Facebook every morning, entered Saturday lauded by pundits, armed with a hefty new contract extension, and buoyed by apparently impressive Google results (though you’d still have to scroll through a bunch of sponsored ads before finding them). But by game’s end, he was left answering questions about Indiana’s playoff résumé, in spite of a 10-1 record.

Perhaps Cignetti knew something about the results of the SEC games to come.

Colorado’s playoff hopes, on the other hand, look all but over unless the Buffaloes can go on to win the Big 12 outright.

After a 2-6 start to the season, Kansas has now won three straight, all against ranked teams. On Saturday, the Jayhawks’ offense dominated, with Devin Neal running for 207 yards and three touchdowns — part of a 331-yard rushing day for Kansas that shocked Colorado coach Deion Sanders, who was previously unaware the rules allowed a team to run that often.

As for Army, Saturday’s blowout loss to Notre Dame represented its most humiliating moment since needing to ask the French for help during the Revolutionary War.

Riley Leonard threw for two touchdowns, Notre Dame’s ground game added five more, and the Irish won their eighth straight game. Notre Dame’s average margin of victory during the streak is 32 points. Only one of those wins has come by less than 18. The USC Trojans and the fading images of Week 2 are now all that stand between Notre Dame and a playoff berth.

There are other Cinderellas still alive in the playoff hunt, of course — Boise State, SMU, all those plucky upstarts in the SEC who’ve had to endure such tremendous depth and harsh treatment by the committee.

But Saturday was also a reminder that, for all the talk of parity in 2024, the rich tend to get richer, the kings stay the king and the Big 12 isn’t rigging games for ratings after all.

Whether that ultimately leads to a more entertaining postseason is up for debate. It is, after all, the Cinderella stories we cherish in other sports, even if we ultimately end up watching the biggest and baddest in the end. But what Indiana, Colorado and Army have proven in 2024 is that those stories still matter in college football, too, and if the glass slipper doesn’t fit in the end, that doesn’t mean it wasn’t still worth going to the ball. After all, balls usually have some nice hors d’oeuvres and an open bar, and we can always look back later and remember when everyone wanted to see Indiana take its turn dancing with the prince.

Chaos in the Big 12

Arizona State escaped two late comeback attempts by BYU — first on an interception by Javan Robinson and then by thwarting a Hail Mary after fans had already stormed the field and taken down a goal post — to win 28-23 and take the driver’s seat in the Big 12.

In the same week Skatteburgers went on sale around (most of) the state, Cam Skattebo ran for 147 yards, three touchdowns and a large order of fries in the win.

After jumping out to a 28-9 lead in the second half, Arizona State saw BYU climb back to within five with the ball before Robinson’s late pick. After seeming to run out the clock on a heave by QB Sam Leavitt, fans stormed the field and chaos ensued.

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Chaos ensues as ASU storms the field prematurely

Arizona State fans storm the field and tear down the goalposts with one second left on the clock before re-storming after a failed BYU Hail Mary.

In fairness, it’s hard to fault the Arizona State fans for being a bit unprepared for this moment. The Sun Devils were picked to finish last in the Big 12 and seemed left for dead as recently as one month ago when they lost to Cincinnati.

Arizona State is in the driver’s seat in the Big 12 now, but the path toward the conference title game is still a murky picture.

Iowa State survived a scare from Utah on Saturday despite a dominant defensive performance. Utah managed just nine first downs and 224 yards, but still had a 28-24 lead with less than two minutes to play thanks to a pick-six and a blocked punt. But Rocco Becht led a 10-play, 75-yard touchdown drive and the Utes missed a 54-yard kick to tie, with the Cyclones holding on for a 31-28 win.

Kansas State rebounded from a two-game skid, too, with a 41-15 win over Cincinnati behind 143 yards and two touchdowns from DJ Giddens.

With Colorado‘s Week 13 loss, that leaves four teams tied atop the league at 6-2 and five additional teams just off the pace at 5-3. As many as eight of those nine teams could feasibly end up tied for the conference lead after Week 14. In that case, the league will revert to its eight-team tiebreaker scenario, which is a gladiator-style cage match in which each head coach, armed only with their wits, cunning and a Super Soaker, battle to see who will be the last two survivors.

Nittany Lions survive

Let this be a lesson to coaches everywhere: You can’t score if you don’t have the football.

James Franklin, noted as a brilliant tactician who has never been criticized for controversial decisions in big moments as far as we know, avoided disaster by rolling the dice three times on fourth down in Penn State‘s final drive, running out the clock on a 26-25 win over Minnesota.

Drew Allar threw for 244 yards and accounted for two touchdowns, Nicholas Singleton gave Penn State its first lead in the third quarter with a 12-yard touchdown run, and the defense got two critical turnovers in the win, but it was Franklin’s decisions on the final drive that proved the difference.

Trailing by four, Minnesota settled for a short field goal with 5:48 to go, then kicked back to Penn State. The conservative approach looked to pay dividends when the Gophers held on a third-and-9, and Penn State set up to punt. But Franklin called for the fake, which Penn State ran to perfection, netting 32 yards, extending the drive. Franklin had the Lions go for it twice more on fourth-and-1, and the drive — 12 plays in all — ultimately closed out the game. The only two plays on the drive to gain more than 10 yards came on fourth down.

Was the offense largely listless otherwise? Sure. Was the special teams a disaster that nearly cost Penn State the game? You betcha. Was beating a 6-5 Minnesota team coming off a loss to Rutgers all that impressive? Probably not. But the important takeaway here is Penn State won, Franklin is a beloved football coach who hasn’t sullied his reputation in weeks and the committee will have the Nittany Lions as the No. 3 team in America this week because it likes to see Greg Sankey get really mad.

For much of this season, watching Miami has been like pharmaceutical commercials listing the side effects. Do not take Miami if you have heart disease, high blood pressure or 20/20 vision. Watching Miami may cause heartburn, nausea and the sudden desire to throw your remote at the TV. If you’ve maintained a coherent thought for more than four drives while watching Miami, contact your doctor immediately.

The first half of Saturday’s game against Wake Forest certainly felt like more of the same. The Canes’ D, criticized endlessly this season, had no answers for the Wake offense, save a Mishael Powell pick-six in the red zone. Miami celebrated that score by immediately surrendering a 100-yard kickoff return. And Cam Ward delivered one of his patented “Why throw it away when I can toss a left-handed shovel pass that will either go for a remarkable touchdown or a mind-boggling interception?” plays and this time, it was the latter.

And so the refrain began again: Miami may be 9-1, but the Canes are hardly worthy of a playoff berth.

But in the fourth quarter, we finally got a taste of that sweet, sweet Miami hype we hadn’t had since the USF game.

Miami reeled off 22 points in the final eight minutes, Jordan Lyle ran for 115 yards and a TD, Ward accounted for three touchdowns and Wake managed just 50 yards of offense in the second half as the Canes rolled to a 42-14 win.

So, which Miami will we see next week against 8-3 Syracuse in a game that will decide whether Miami or Clemson goes to the ACC championship game? Might want to have your doctor on speed dial for that one.

SMU clinches ACC title game berth

Kevin Jennings threw for 323 yards and accounted for three touchdowns in a 33-7 win over Virginia on Saturday that officially clinched a spot for SMU in the ACC championship game in the Mustangs’ first year in the league.

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SMU stays undefeated in the ACC with win over Virginia

SMU stays undefeated in the ACC with win over Virginia

SMU’s impressive 10-1 campaign, which includes a 7-0 record in ACC play thus far, should be one of the best stories of the season. Unfortunately, the Mustangs are basically the Jay Gatsby of college football — using their vast fortune to buy their way into high society only to find the old money elites won’t take them seriously and that green light off in the distance is just the committee’s way of signaling Miami will be ranked higher. Eventually, some three-loss SEC team will shoot them and leave them to bleed out in a pool — the second-worst death penalty SMU will have faced.

Dylan Raiola threw for 292 yards and Emmett Johnson rushed for 113 more as Nebraska finally earned bowl eligibility by picking up win No. 6 with a 44-25 victory over Wisconsin.

Nebraska has not played in a bowl game since 2016 — a time when the world was still mourning the loss of our beloved Harambe. Since then, Nebraska football has essentially been the plot of a “Saw” movie, the type of anguish and horror that can only be the product of some diabolically evil scheme dreamt up by a monster. But, at long last, Nebraska football has returned to its rightful place — in the middle of the Big Ten and one of the top 80 programs in the country.

Surely somewhere Matt Rhule is standing shirtless in the rain, relishing this first taste of freedom like Andy from “Shawshank Redemption.” Dana Holgorsen may also be shirtless somewhere but that’s unrelated.

Illinois moved to 8-3 with a 38-31 win over Rutgers that was somehow both utterly ridiculous and, for this Illini team, completely expected.

Trailing by 1 and facing a fourth-and-13 with 14 seconds to play, Luke Altmyer hit Pat Bryant for a 40-yard touchdown, and the Illini went on to win 38-31.

It was a ludicrous finish with four fourth-quarter lead changes and 23 points scored in the final 3:07, but this is old hat for Illinois. It’s the Illini’s fourth win of the season after trailing in the fourth quarter, more than any other team in the country, providing the Big Ten with a much-needed team that has lost to the good teams so the conference’s résumé doesn’t look completely lackluster. Penn State will be sending Bret Bielema a nice ham for Christmas.

Beavers win Pac-12

It has been a rough year for Oregon State, which entered Saturday sporting a 4-6 record. But Saturday was for all the marbles — and in this case, that would be exactly two marbles.

The Beavers hosted Washington State for the Pac-12 championship, which is sort of like being valedictorian of your home school class. Still, they delivered.

Ben Gulbranson threw for 294 yards and two touchdowns and Trent Walker caught eight balls in the 41-38 win. Washington State’s John Mateer was exceptional again — averaging nearly 11 yards per pass — but the Cougars’ defense failed for the second straight week.

A salute to the coaches we’ve lost

No Power 4 school has fired a head coach yet, which is something of a surprise this late in the season, but that doesn’t mean we’ve not said goodbye to some beloved names. There are currently 12 openings for 2025, including six announced in the past week.

Jim McElwain, Central Michigan

McElwain announced this week he planned to retire at season’s end, but before he was done, the Chippewas managed a 16-14 win over rival Western Michigan on Tuesday, thanks to a terrific defensive effort holding WMU to just 184 total yards.

All that remains between McElwain and retirement now is a finale against Northern Illinois. Then, after spending so many years in the frigid winters of Michigan, it’ll be time to set off for sunny shores — some place nice and hot. Maybe he’ll go fishing for some big targets. A shark, perhaps. And, when he does reel in that prized catch, he’ll want to take some celebratory photos. We can only hope that, in his post-football life, he’ll share those photos on the internet.

Anyone coaching Owls

Rice, Florida Atlantic, Kennesaw State and Temple are all looking for new head coaches, meaning all four programs with Owl nicknames fired their guys in the past month.

FAU beat Temple in Week 12 in a game so bad, both teams fired their head coaches afterward.

Temple then faced off against UTSA on Friday, with AD Arthur Johnson attempting to explain the decision in game, only for the team to provide all the evidence necessary.

FAU moved on from Tom Herman, and we can only hope he responded to the decision with a text back to the AD saying, “OK, cool. #HookEm.”

Poggi out, Poggi back

FAU lost its follow-up performance Saturday, 39-27 to Charlotte, which also fired its head coach, Biff Poggi. Charlotte will have to pay Poggi $1.3 million in a buyout, plus raise its shirt sleeve budget significantly for the next guy.

Poggi, meanwhile, pulled a George Costanza and just showed up at work anyway after being fired, hoping nobody would notice.

Frankly, it’s a shame Charlotte’s experiment to hire an investment banker with no on-field experience whose wardrobe can also be used to wax your car and who built a team by recruiting guys from his old high school under the auspices of filming a documentary that would air on Quibi didn’t work. It seemed like such a good idea at the time.

Week 13 vibe shifts

This week included some major swings in the playoff landscape, but we also try to keep tabs on some of the more subtle shifts in the college football universe here.

Trending down: Dawgs’ run defense

Since the start of 2020, Georgia has the best record of any team in the country at 58-6. Since the start of 2020, UMass has the worst record of any team in the country at 7-43. On Saturday, they faced off in Athens, Georgia, in a game that could have threatened a 108-year-old record.

As it turned out, the surviving members of the 1916 Cumberland team could pop the champagne they’ve been holding on to since prohibition and toast that their 222-0 record margin of defeat against Georgia Tech remains intact, as the Bulldogs only managed a pedestrian 59-21 win.

In fact, Georgia didn’t exactly look like a dominant team despite the talent mismatch. UMass actually ran for 226 yards in the game — or 29 more than the Minutemen managed against Wagner — and topped 20 points against a Power 4 team for the first time since 2021 (vs. Boston College).

The impressive rushing performance against Georgia now means UMass should crack the committee’s top 15 this week.

Trending down: Texas‘ strength of schedule

Texas beat Kentucky 31-14 on Saturday in a largely uninspiring performance that saw Quinn Ewers toss two touchdowns and Quintrevion Wisner run for 158 yards. Texas was fine. The Horns were never in real danger of losing, but they also didn’t really pull away until late in the fourth quarter. It’s fair to wonder if perhaps the Horns are just bored.

There are currently eight teams with seven or more wins in the SEC, and Texas hasn’t played any of them.

Is it Texas’ fault that the SEC rolled out the red carpet and forgot about strength of schedule in Year 1? Is it Texas’ fault that the Michigan Wolverines, a nonconference foe the Horns steamrolled, is a shell of its 2023 self? Is it Texas’ fault that SEC haters are elated to finally be able to hold the strength of schedule argument against an SEC team?

No. Of course not. But it is Texas’ fault we haven’t seen any of Arch Manning in weeks, and if we’re not going to get Arch in the playoff, then what’s the point of even putting the Horns in?

Trending up: BC miracles

Saturday was the 40th anniversary of Doug Flutie’s Hail Mary throw to beat Miami, a play on the Mount Rushmore of historic college football moments.

And on this Saturday, Boston College delivered another moment for the ages. With 11:20 left in the third quarter, BC rolled out kicker Liam Connor, who booted a 27-yard field goal that gave the Eagles a 20-point lead in a game they’d eventually win 41-21.

Doesn’t sound so miraculous? Consider that was just BC’s second made field goal all season. The Eagles doubled their total for the year and still have less than any other program in the country. BC’s only other field goal came in a win over Michigan State way back on Sept. 21. The Eagles have attempted just three all season. Aside from the 2020 COVID season when teams played abridged schedules, no team has attempted fewer than five field goals in a full season in at least the past 20 years.

Trending up: ACC tradition

On Saturday, Cal and Stanford played yet another edition of The Game, a showdown that has featured ACC legends such as Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, and included perhaps the most memorable moment in ACC history, when the band was on the field as Cal walked off with a win in 1982.

This time around, the Bears and Cardinal etched another memorable moment into the ACC history books.

In a game broadcast on its traditional window at 3:30 Eastern Time on the ACC Network, Stanford jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the second half, but the Bears, knowing how much this moment meant to ACC fans everywhere, refused to cede victory. Fernando Mendoza threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns to Jonathan Brady — a 30-yarder and a 22-yarder — to take a 24-21 lead with 2:40 to go, then ran out the clock with fans presumably chanting “A-C-C, A-C-C” in the waning moments, celebrating winning the traditional ACC rivalry trophy: a framed photo of Tommy Bowden holding a Raycom coffee mug.

Trending down: FSU skeptics

Florida State‘s much-maligned season has finally taken a turn for the better, as the Seminoles marched past a 1-11 FCS opponent, Charleston Southern, 41-7 on Saturday.

This is huge news for FSU for a couple reasons. First, the Noles doubled their season win total. Second, it gives us some additional insight into the school’s long-term plans in its ongoing lawsuit to escape the ACC. It’s clear now that Florida State plans to win its lawsuit, gain its freedom and join the Big South-OVC Association, where next season it’ll finish 8-4 and narrowly edge out Lindenwood for third place.

Heisman five

In the race for the Heisman, we may be ignoring something more compelling. This year’s race is as uniquely fun as any in recent memory.

Consider this: The three-man battle for the award is not about three QBs quietly going to work for the top teams in the country. The SEC and Big Ten don’t have real contenders for the honor. Instead, it’s a magician of a QB for an oft-maligned Miami, an unrelenting tailback for Boise State hoping to become the first Heisman winner from a program outside the major conferences since Ty Detmer in 1990 and a do-it-all superstar playing iron man football for Deion Sanders in the mix. And they’re all doing something historic, all are electric on a weekly basis and all are nearly impossible to compare against each other.

And as we head into the final weekend of the regular season, the race still seems to be completely up in the air.

1. Boise State Broncos RB Ashton Jeanty

He’s bruised and battered and battling injury. He’s facing stacked boxes with defenses putting nine defenders and a rancor from “Star Wars” at the line of scrimmage. And still, no one’s stopping Jeanty. In an otherwise miserable 17-13 win over Wyoming, Jeanty carried 19 times for 169 yards and a touchdown, officially crossing the 2,000-yard threshold on the season. If he hits his season average for rushing next week, he’ll wrap the regular season with the fifth-most rushing yards in FBS history.

2. Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter

Who’s the best player in the country? It’s hard to make the case that it’s anyone other than Hunter, who continues to do things no one has done before. In Saturday’s loss, he caught eight passes for 125 yards and two touchdowns and made seven tackles with a pass breakup. That the rest of the Buffs couldn’t stop Kansas was hardly his fault. It’s ironic that, if Hunter were at a less polarizing but more successful school such as Georgia or Alabama, he’d likely be getting more attention than he is playing for a school where the head coach will always be the biggest star. But Hunter is arguably one of the most dynamic and talented athletes to play college football since … Lamar Jackson? Bo Jackson? Barry Sanders? Jim Thorpe? Name a great. Hunter measures up.

3. Miami QB Cam Ward

The biggest critique of Ward this season is that he simply believes too much in his own ability to turn water into wine and sacks into touchdowns. Ward was terrific in Miami’s win over Wake Forest on Saturday, but the standard is so high with him, anything less than five touchdowns, 400 yards and sawing a lady in half during an official’s review just to keep the crowd entertained feels like a letdown. That’s the best explanation of how amazing Ward has been. A very good game feels boring.

4. Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo

He ran for 147 yards and three touchdowns on Saturday in a program-defining win over BYU. He’s selling burgers. His name is incredibly fun to say. Change the lyrics to the Pixies’ “Caribou” to “Skattebo” and it fits perfectly. In any other year, he’d be a household name. Regardless, he belongs in the Heisman discussion now.

5. Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel

The Ducks were off this week, which seemed nice.

Under-the-radar play of the week

“OK, guys, here’s the plan. We’re going to shift pre-snap and move the entire O-line out wide. Then we’re going to bring in some wide receivers to block. Then we’re going to have our true freshman QB handle throwing the pass. Should work like a charm.”

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GT gifted a quirky pick-six from botched pitch

NC State tries to run a trick sweep, but the pitch bounces off the running back’s helmet and into the arms of E.J. Lightsey for the 21-yard touchdown.

NC State‘s play design on this pick-six that ultimately cost the Wolfpack the game in a 30-29 loss to Georgia Tech is why some offensive coordinators should be kept away from the Red Bull.

Under-the-radar game of the week

South Dakota rallied from an 11-point deficit in the final four minutes Saturday to knock off FCS No. 1 North Dakota State, 29-28.

Aidan Bouman connected with Javion Phelps with just 12 seconds to go for a 25-yard, go-ahead touchdown to secure the win.

Bauman finished with 272 yards and two touchdowns — 120 yards and both scores coming in the final 3:40 of the game — and the Coyotes ran for 272 yards in the win.

With the victory, South Dakota claims a share of the Missouri Valley championship.

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

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August 11, 2025

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

  • Associated Press

Aug 11, 2025, 12:07 PM ET

For the first time, Texas will open a college football season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press Top 25.

The Longhorns hardly have a mandate in the poll released Monday: They edged out Penn State by just five points in the closest preseason vote since 1998.

Texas received 25 first-place votes and 1,552 points to give the Southeastern Conference the preseason No. 1 team for a record fifth straight year. The Nittany Lions got 23 first-place votes and 1,547 points for their highest preseason ranking since they were No. 1 to open the 1997 season.

The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.

The Buckeyes received 11 first-place votes from the panel of 65 media members who cover college football. No. 4 Clemson got four first-place votes and No. 5 Georgia got one.

Notre Dame, Oregon (which got the final first-place vote), Alabama, LSU and Miami round out the top 10.

The SEC leads all conferences with 10 teams in the preseason Top 25, most ever by a conference and one more than a year ago. The SEC has four teams in the top 10 for the second straight year.

The Big Ten, which has won the past two national championships, has two of the top three teams in the poll for the third straight year and six in the Top 25 for the third year in a row.

Four Big 12 teams are ranked, with defending conference champion Arizona State the highest at No. 11. The Atlantic Coast Conference has three, led by Clemson.

Top-ranked Texas “Arch Mania” is at a fever pitch in Texas with Arch Manning now the undisputed starting quarterback.

The Longhorns have been on an upward trajectory since they were 5-7 in 2021, Steve Sarkisian’s first season. They have won 25 of their past 30 games and reached two straight CFP semifinals. Last year, they were ranked No. 1 four of five weeks from mid-September to mid-October, and they reached the SEC championship game in their first season in the conference.

“But this is a new year, new faces, new team, and obviously expectations are high for our program,” Sarkisian said at SEC media days. “I’m not naive to that. I don’t put my head in the sand, and expectations are very high. But I also say we’re the University of Texas, and the standard is the standard here, and that’s competing for championships year in and year out.”

Twelve Texas players were taken in the NFL draft, including three first-round picks, but elite recruiting and additions from the transfer portal should alleviate concerns about losses on the offensive line and at receiver. The defense brings back plenty of talent.

Still, Texas received just 38.5% of the first-place votes (25 of 65), the smallest share for a No. 1 team in the preseason poll since Georgia got 33.9% (22 of 65) in 2008.

The Longhorns have ended a season No. 1 in the AP poll three times (1963, 1969, 2005) but until now had never started a season higher than No. 2 (1962, 1965, 1970, 2005, 2009).

Big Ten lurking

The second-ranked Nittany Lions are not only six points from being No. 1, they are 75 points ahead of the Buckeyes in what might be considered a slight to the national champs.

Penn State will have Drew Allar back under center for what many consider a light schedule ahead of a late September visit from Oregon before a Nov. 1 showdown at Ohio State.

The Buckeyes, in the preseason top five for the ninth straight year and 12th of the past 13, will have a new look with only five starters back on offense and three on defense.

“This team has its own identity,” coach Ryan Day said. “It wants to have its own identity, but it also wants to be the first Ohio State team to win back-to-back national championships.”

The opener against Texas will give the Buckeyes a good measure of themselves. Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz will be the third new starting quarterback in three years. Whoever gets the job will throw to one of the nation’s top players in Jeremiah Smith.

Day will also have another chance to figure out archrival and preseason No. 14 Michigan, which has beaten the Buckeyes for four straight years.

Poll nuggets

• Texas will try to become the 12th team to start and finish No. 1 since the AP preseason poll debuted in 1950. The last team to do it was Alabama in 2017.

• Notre Dame is in the preseason top 10 for the third time in four years. The Fighting Irish will have a new quarterback, CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The two played a combined eight snaps last season as Notre Dame went all the way to the CFP title game won by Ohio State.

• With Boise State at No. 25, all 12 teams in the 2024 College Football Playoff are ranked in the preseason. The Mountain West’s Broncos are the first team from a Group of Five conference to crack the preseason Top 25 since Tulane was No. 24 in 2023.

• No. 16 SMU, which returns quarterback Kevin Jennings from its CFP team, is in the preseason Top 25 for the first time in 40 years. The 1985 team was No. 3, finishing 6-5 and unranked.

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AP preseason poll reaction: One big number for every team

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August 11, 2025

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Texas No. 1 in preseason AP Top 25 for first time

Aug 11, 2025, 12:15 PM ET

The first AP poll of the 2025 college football season has been released. Texas begins the season at No. 1 followed by Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia.

Texas is ranked No. 1 in the preseason coaches’ poll. The Longhorns face a major test right away. Their Aug. 30 opener at defending champion and third-ranked Ohio State is a rematch of last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal, a 28-14 Buckeyes win in the Cotton Bowl.

The SEC leads the way with 10 teams in the AP Top 25, the most ever by one conference. The Big Ten is second with six teams represented.

With the season about to start, here’s one big stat to know for each team in the AP Top 25.

Stats courtesy of ESPN Research.

All times Eastern

2024 record: 13-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Ohio State, noon, Fox

Stat to know: 26. The Longhorns’ 26 turnovers last season were the fifth most in the FBS, yet they still had a plus-5 turnover margin thanks to their 31 takeaways, which were second in the country.

2024 record: 13-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Nevada, 3:30 p.m., CBS

Stat to know: 3,237. Penn State led all Power 4 teams in rushing last season with 3,237 yards. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, who each rushed for more than 1,000 yards last season, return in 2025.

2024 record: 14-2

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Texas, noon, Fox

Stat to know: 84. QB Julian Sayin, a freshman in 2024 and former five-star recruit, has thrown for just 84 career yards. However, he is the leading passer on Ohio State’s roster.

2024 record: 10-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. LSU, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 0-3. Clemson went 0-3 against the SEC in 2024 (Georgia, South Carolina, Texas). The Tigers haven’t lost four straight games to the SEC since doing so across three seasons from 1974-76.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Marshall, 3:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 53-5. That’s Georgia’s record over the past four seasons, with three of the losses coming to Alabama. Michigan (48-8) and Ohio State (47-8) are the only other FBS schools with fewer than 10 losses in that span.

2024 record: 14-2

Week 1: Aug. 31 at Miami, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 5. The Irish have five true road games this season (Miami, Arkansas, Boston College, Pitt, Stanford). The program last won more than three true road games in 2021 (4-0), compiling an 8-4 record in true road games since then (3-0 last season).

2024 record: 13-1

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Montana State, 4 p.m., BTN

Stat to know: 39. Since 2022, when Dan Lanning took over as head coach, Oregon has led the country in points per game with 39. The Ducks will have a new starting QB in 2025 (Dante Moore). It’s the third year in a row with a different starting QB.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Florida State, 3:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 4. Last season, Alabama had four losses for the first time since 2007, which also was the last time the Tide finished outside of the AP top 10. They ended 2024 ranked 17th.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 30 at Clemson, 7:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 125. Linebacker Whit Weeks, a rising junior, was second in the SEC last season with 125 tackles, including 10 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Notre Dame, 7:30 p.m., ABC

Stat to know: 150. Of Miami’s top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Northern Arizona, 10 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 39. The Sun Devils have to replace All-Big 12 first-team running back Cam Skattebo, who accounted for 39% of the team’s scrimmage yards last season (T-4th in the FBS).

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 29 vs. Western Illinois, 7:30 p.m., Peacock

Stat to know: 10. Illinois has never won 10 games in consecutive seasons.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 31 vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta), 3 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 261. In his first year as starting quarterback, LaNorris Sellers averaged 261 passing yards in his final six games — 100 more than he had averaged over his first six games.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. New Mexico, 7:30 p.m., Peacock

Stat to know: 131. Michigan ranked 131st in passing in 2024, behind only the service academies. The Wolverines did bring in veteran Fresno State QB Mikey Keene and signed five-star QB Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 overall recruit in the class of 2025.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Long Island, 7 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 20. Florida recorded 20 sacks over its last four games of the season, fifth most among FBS teams after Week 11 and the most among non-CFP teams.

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. East Texas A&M, 9 p.m., ACC Network

Stat to know: 40.8. Last season the Mustangs scored 40.8 points per game (fifth most in the FBS) after Kevin Jennings took over as starting QB against TCU in Week 4.

2024 record: 9-4

Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Iowa State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN

Stat to know: 605. Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson led all Big 12 quarterbacks in rushing in 2024 with 605 yards.

2024 record: 6-7

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Illinois State, 6 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 26. The Sooners have played in a bowl game in 26 consecutive seasons. Only Georgia (28) has a longer active streak.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. UTSA, 7 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 16.2%. Defensive end Cashius Howell had a 16.2% pressure rate last season, the sixth best among FBS players and best of any returning SEC player.

2024 record: 11-2

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Old Dominion, 2:30 p.m., FS1

Stat to know: 8. Should Indiana win eight or more games, it would mark the first time since 1987 and 1988 that the Hoosiers won at least eight games in consecutive seasons.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Georgia State, 7:45 p.m., SEC Network

Stat to know: 45. Ole Miss returns 45% of its defensive production. In 2024, the Rebels ranked first in the SEC in points allowed per game (14.4) and rush yards allowed per game (81).

2024 record: 11-3

Week 1: Aug. 23 vs. Kansas State (in Dublin), noon, ESPN

Stat to know: 5.35. Iowa State yielded 5.35 yards per rush in 2024, which ranked 126th in the FBS. ISU allowed 81 carries of 10 or more yards last season, ranking 125th in the FBS.

2024 record: 8-5

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, 7:30 p.m., ESPN+

Stat to know: 2018. The Red Raiders have not appeared in an AP poll since 2018. No power conference program has played more games as an unranked team over the past six seasons than Texas Tech (74). On the other hand, 89 FBS programs have played at least one game as an AP-ranked team since 2019.

2024 record: 10-3

Week 1: Aug. 30 vs. Syracuse (in Atlanta), noon, ABC

Stat to know: 39. Tennessee returns 39% of its offensive production from last season, which is ranked 110th in the FBS for returning offensive production. Nico Iamaleava was the headliner among the departures, but the Vols brought in App State QB Joey Aguilar, who has thrown 56 touchdown passes in the past two seasons.

2024 record: 12-2

Week 1: Aug. 28 at USF, 5:30 p.m., ESPN

Stat to know: 2,601. Boise State is looking to replace Ashton Jeanty’s 2,601 rushing yards. The Broncos brought in Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod, who rushed for 966 yards and 10 total touchdowns in 2023. Sherrod appeared in only five games in 2024 before suffering an ankle injury.

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One bet for every AP Top 25 team

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August 11, 2025

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One bet for every AP Top 25 team

  • Pamela MaldonadoAug 11, 2025, 01:00 PM ET

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      Pamela Maldonado is a sports betting analyst for ESPN.

Before the first whistle of the 2025 college football season blows and play begins, the betting market is already moving. Week 1 lines are live at ESPN BET with season win totals and futures shaping up. Each team in the preseason AP top 25 poll has a story, whether it’s a rebuild, a reload or a revenge tour.

I’ve combed through the markets and picked one betting angle for every Top 25 ranked team, including win totals, long shots and even some bets for Week 1. There is plenty of head-to-head matchups, stability edges and fade-worthy hype. Here are 25 bets to consider before the college football chaos begins.

All odds are accurate as of time stamp. All times Eastern. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.

The bet: Texas to miss the playoff (+220)

Texas is currently the favorite to win the national championship at ESPN BET, but this feels more like hype than substance. If the Longhorns drop two road games at Ohio State and Georgia, they have zero margin for error the rest of the way. And winning games against teams like Florida, Kentucky and Texas A&M isn’t guaranteed with such a young roster. All three games are tricky spots for Texas, especially late in the year. Even with a strong recruiting class, asking Arch Manning to go nearly perfect through that stretch is a lot. That’s why Texas going 10-2 feels like the smart bet. Taking the Longhorns to miss the playoff has real value.

The bet: Penn State over 10.5 wins (+120)

Penn State is built for another deep playoff run this year. Drew Allar enters his third season as the Nittany Lions’ starter with continuity around him. Top backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton return, and while Tyler Warren is gone, the receiving room stays intact with Harrison Wallace III and Omari Evans. The key is Allar taking the next step, but the pieces are there. With OC Andy Kotelnicki in his second year and a veteran core, this team is ready. Trusting James Franklin is a big ask but with an experienced roster, the path is clear for Penn State to take a leap.

The bet: Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Texas

Week 1 brings a heavyweight showdown in Columbus, a game of experience versus transition. Texas rolls in with tons of hype around QB Arch Manning but question marks remain, as the Longhorns attempt to break in a new quarterback and new skill players after losing their top two wideouts and key depth in the backfield.

The defending champion Buckeyes aren’t starting from scratch. Ohio State returns core defensive pieces and still has firepower at receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes’ defense could be the difference against a Texas offense likely to lean heavily on the ground game early. Also, Ohio State rarely loses at Ohio Stadium, where it has gone 27-3 since 2021.

The bet: Tigers to make the playoff (-145)

I’m all in on the Tigers this year. Don’t be surprised if Cade Klubnik is the best quarterback in the country by December. He has got the experience, the green light and a trio of dangerous receivers in Antonio Williams, Bryant Wesco Jr. and TJ Moore. Continuity and talent are finally aligned for the Tigers on offense as well as a friendly schedule with LSU as the only true litmus test early. While I’m not quite ready to say Clemson is my pick to win the national championship, the Tigers are a team to watch in 2025. Look for a lot of Clemson’s games to go over as this offense will be electric.

The bet: Georgia over 9.5 wins (-180)

The Bulldogs have questions, a new quarterback, a revamped offensive line and unproven edge rushers, but they’re still stacked with recruiting talent and depth at nearly every position. They get Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Kentucky all at home, where they’re an absurd 47-1 since 2017. QB Gunner Stockton has the tools, the defense is still loaded and the receiving room finally has explosiveness. Even if this team isn’t vintage Georgia, 10 wins feels more like the Bulldogs’ floor than their ceiling.

The bet: Head-to-head Most Regular Season Wins: Notre Dame (-130) vs. Texas

Notre Dame’s defense is the reason they could go undefeated, and it starts up front. Despite losing three starters on the defensive line, the Irish return 11 linemen who combined for nearly 2,400 snaps last season, which means this group is deep, experienced and versatile. The Irish added key transfers and have multiple breakout candidates like freshman quarterback CJ Carr. The defense is loaded with size, length and pass-rushing upside and can rotate in waves. Against a Texas team still retooling with a new quarterback and key losses at the skill positions, Notre Dame has a stable path to more wins this season.

The bet: Oregon to miss the playoff (+210)

I’m not as high on Dante Moore as the market. He has arm talent but struggled with turnovers, pressure and consistency when he last started as a freshman at UCLA in 2023. He also lacks the mobility to escape the pocket when things break down. Losing WR Tez Johnson to the NFL strips away a key weapon, especially in the short and intermediate game. That impact showed late in the season where Oregon nearly lost 16-13 to Wisconsin without him. If Moore doesn’t progress quickly and Johnson’s absence lingers, this team will take a step back.

The bet: Alabama to miss the playoff (+125)

This is a wager against the current roster’s limitations, road vulnerability and a path with no margin for defensive error. The Crimson Tide’s defense isn’t what it used to be. In 2024 they were ranked 52nd in run defense while giving up scores on 85% of red zone trips on the road. Throw in road games at Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn. The offense might keep Alabama alive, but with key losses on defense, 10-2 feels more like the ceiling. In a crowded 12-team Playoff, that might not be enough. The name still carries weight, but the cracks are there.

The bet: LSU under 8.5 wins (+135)

The Tigers at plus money have value when you consider their schedule and roster concerns. LSU opens the season at Clemson, a more complete team, then travels to Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma, all three teams with strong home-field edges. Even home games against Florida and South Carolina are not guaranteed wins. Especially with an offensive line in transition after losing both starting tackles to the NFL and a run game that is relying on a freshman to carry the load after the team averaged just 116 yards per game this past season, 104th in the country. Most of the wide receiver room is new, so early chemistry with QB Garrett Nussmeier could take time. There’s talent, but between the turnover, health questions and a brutal road slate, nine wins is a tall ask.

The bet: Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami

This isn’t a bet on Miami, but it’s a wager that offers the most value. Notre Dame returns a loaded defense with depth, experience and a pass rush that can expose Miami’s rebuilt receiving corps. The Hurricanes are still replacing their top five receivers, starting a new quarterback in Carson Beck and rolling out a brand-new defensive coaching staff. That’s a lot of moving parts against a team with continuity and Playoff expectations. If Beck’s turnover issues from this past season show up early, Notre Dame has the defense to make the Hurricanes pay. The bet on Miami is Beck to throw an interception in this game.

The bet: Arizona State under 8.5 wins (-135)

I don’t love this, but it makes more sense when you factor in the loss of Cam Skattebo. He accounted for over 2,300 yards (rushing and receiving) and 21 of the team’s 30 rushing touchdowns. Without him, the pressure shifts entirely to second-year quarterback Sam Leavitt, who’s talented but still young, and now without his safety valve. The Sun Devils’ schedule looks manageable on paper, but close games become harder to close without Skattebo’s power and consistency. ASU still has upside, but losing its most reliable weapon lowers the floor.

The bet: Illinois under 7.5 wins (+130)

Call it contrarian, but I’m not as high on the Illini as others. Yes, they beat Nebraska, Michigan and South Carolina this past season, but those wins came with major context. Michigan was still figuring itself out early in the season, and the Citrus Bowl win came in a watered-down matchup filled with opt-outs. Losing Josh McCray to Georgia, the Illini’s most physical running back and leader in rushing scores, matters. The backfield is still solid, but not as proven, and with a tougher schedule ahead, under eight wins could be valuable.

The bet: South Carolina over 7.5 wins (-105)

This is an underrated play given the ceiling the Gamecocks have built around quarterback LaNorris Sellers and what he brings to this team. He has Jayden Daniels potential as a dual-threat QB with the ability to carry a team when the defense is in transition. Yes, South Carolina’s defense lost a lot of experienced players, but the system remains aggressive and there are still difference-makers in edge Dylan Stewart and DB Jalon Kilgore. The Gamecocks finished 2024 with six straight regular season wins and now have momentum, confidence and a clear offensive identity. If the young skill guys step up even modestly, Sellers can guide South Carolina to a winning season.

The bet: Michigan to win the Big Ten (+850)

The Wolverines closed this past season with three straight wins, including impressive performances at Ohio State and against Alabama. They should be able to use that momentum this season with a deep group of pass rushers and a secondary that could be among the best in the country. Michigan’s schedule sets up well for a potential undefeated Big Ten run, with The Game back in Ann Arbor where Michigan has won four straight in the rivalry. Freshman QB Bryce Underwood, a 5-star recruit, provides upside and depth far better than last year’s carousel. If the quarterback position hits, along with the defense, this ticket has legs.

The bet: Florida under 7.5 wins (-135)

The juice on this bet isn’t ideal, but it’s warranted. Florida’s schedule is brutal with road trips to LSU and Texas A&M, plus games against Texas, Georgia and Tennessee — all teams with solid defenses. Quarterback DJ Lagway has potential, but he has dealt with shoulder issues and has no proven depth behind him. The Gators’ defense finished strong this past year but are thin in the interior and their secondary has durability concerns, especially with DB Devin Moore. If Lagway misses any time or the trenches wear down, this could easily be a 6-6 season for Florida with Billy Napier heading out the door.

The bet: SMU over 8.5 wins (-120)

With Kevin Jennings back at quarterback, SMU’s passing game is ready to roll. Jennings brings big-play ability and has experience around him in proven receivers Jordan Hudson, Romello Brinson and tight end RJ Maryland. The Mustangs’ passing offense should be their strength again, especially early while the backfield settles in. If Jennings can cut down on his turnovers, this team’s floor is nine wins.

The bet: Kansas State to win the Big 12 (+550)

Quarterback Avery Johnson has taken the next step as a leader and passer, and the offense is balanced with a deep backfield and a promising receiver group. The Wildcats’ defensive front is among the best in the conference, and linebacker Austin Romaine gives them a true anchor. Kansas State’s early schedule is quirky, but winnable, starting with Iowa State in Dublin, a game the Wildcats should handle. If the secondary holds up, this veteran team has all the tools to make a serious run at the conference title.

The bet: Oklahoma under 6.5 wins (+135)

Cal transfer running back Jaydn Ott brings name recognition, but he wasn’t fully healthy this past season and didn’t log a single 100-yard rushing game. Even if Ott and Washington State transfer quarterback John Mateer click in this offense, the Sooners’ offensive line is still a major liability after giving up 50 sacks in 2024. I like Mateer’s potential. He is a solid quarterback, but Oklahoma’s schedule is brutal with Michigan early followed by what could be a challenging game against Texas and games against South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama in a row. For a team that went 2-6 in the SEC this past season and still lacks proven playmakers, seven wins feels like a reach.

The bet: Texas A&M over 7.5 wins (-170)

I’m high on the Aggies but fully aware I’m probably walking into heartbreak again. The Aggies offense has serious upside with dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed, a healthy RB Le’Veon Moss and one of the best offensive lines in the country. Mike Elko’s defense collapsed late this past year, including a blown 17-point lead to USC, but they also shut out Texas in the second half and made key portal additions. Elko took over playcalling and publicly called out the issues: coverage, tackling and focus. If Texas A&M’s defense makes even a moderate jump, eight wins should be this team’s floor.

The bet: Indiana over 8.5 wins (+115)

There are only two clear roadblocks for Indiana this season, Iowa and Penn State. Everything else is winnable, especially with quarterback Fernando Mendoza stepping into an offensive system that just set school records for scoring and upgraded the offensive line and backfield. The defense returns All-American talent at every level and finished seventh in points allowed last year. With continuity, explosive skill talent and a proven head coach in Curt Cignetti, this is a program built to sustain success. At plus money, the Hoosiers upside is worth the risk.

The bet: Ole Miss to miss the playoff (-190)

The Rebels lost nearly their entire defensive identity with most of the secondary gone. Offensively, quarterback Austin Simmons is talented but unproven, and he’s playing behind an offensive line replacing four starters. That’s not a great setup with road trips to Georgia and Oklahoma on the schedule, both could expose the Rebels’ inexperience behind center and vulnerable defense. Add in home games against LSU and South Carolina, two teams with explosive skill players and physical fronts. Even if the Ole Miss offense holds up, the defense has too many question marks, and four potential losses means the playoff is likely out of reach.

The bet: Iowa State-Kansas State over 49.5

The Big 12 can be a volatile conference so let’s go straight to a Week 0 play. Iowa State’s run defense ranked 105th nationally this past year and now faces a Kansas State offense that thrives on the ground with dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson. Add in the Cyclones’ pass rush concerns, just 17 sacks in 14 games, and a reworked defensive line still searching for chemistry and it’s easy to see where explosive plays could come from. Both teams return experienced quarterbacks, and with defenses typically starting slow early in the season, especially internationally, this neutral-site opener has all the ingredients for a high scoring affair.

The bet: Texas Tech over 8.5 wins (-140)

Quarterback continuity with Behren Morton means steady production at the most important position. Offensive line upgrades give Morton time to attack vertically and keep the run game strong, utilizing added players to the receiving group and backfield. Adding LBs David Bailey and Romello Height and Lee Hunter up front, turn the the Red Raiders’ defensive front into a strength, while added secondary depth lets defensive coordinator Shiel Wood be aggressive and fix last year’s leaky pass defense. Texas Tech’s schedule is front-loaded, with a strong chance to start 4-0. From there, splitting the tougher road games gets them to 9-3, making over 8.5 wins worth backing despite the -140 price.

The bet: Tennessee over 8.5 wins (+105)

The Volunteers’ defense is legit, one of the most disruptive in the SEC and that gives them a reliable floor in a season full of toss-up games. With this sneaky athleticism, Joey Aguilar might be unproven at this level, but he could bring more mobility than last year’s starter and enough upside to keep the offense functional. While not a true dual-threat, he moves well in the pocket, can extend plays, and is comfortable throwing on the run. Aguilar has all the tools, but it’s still projection, not production. With a veteran defensive line, solid corners, and DB Boo Carter emerging as a weapon in all three phases, this is a team that can grind out wins even when their offense isn’t perfect. If Aguilar settles in early, a 9-3 record is within reach.

The bet: Boise State to win the Mountain West (-125)

Taking Boise State over 9.5 wins at -190 is a heavy tax with little reward. The Broncos have a 21-2 record in Mountain West play since 2022. Their toughest league opponents this season, UNLV, Fresno State and Colorado State, are all home games. If the Broncos go 7-1 or 8-0 in conference play, they will likely host the conference title game on their home blue turf. Even if they lose to Notre Dame and Air Force, they could still easily win the Mountain West. Consider skipping the juiced win total and take a bet on the clearer path for the Broncos against a soft conference schedule.

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