Can Saudi Arabia keep pace with its ambitious mega-project spending spree?
Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
The Line, NEOM
In Saudi Arabia’s northwestern desert, a sprawling construction site replete with cranes and pile drivers sits encircled by a recently-built road. A pair of tracks cuts through the site like deep gashes through the sand, comprising the spine of what planners say will be a high-speed rail system.
The skeletal infrastructure forms the foundations of The Line, a multi-billion dollar high-tech city that its architects say will eventually house 9 million people between two 106-mile long glass skyscrapers more than 1,600 feet high.
The project, whose estimated cost is in the hundreds of billions, is just one of the hyper-futuristic venues planned in Neom, the brainchild of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and a region that the kingdom hopes will bring millions of new residents to Saudi Arabia and revolutionize living and technology in the country. It’s a core pillar of Vision 2030, which aims to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil revenues and create new jobs and industries for its burgeoning young population.
The cost of Neom has been estimated to be as high as $1.5 trillion. In the years since it was announced, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, the mammoth sovereign wealth fund now overseeing $925 billion in assets, has poured billions into overseas investments, with ever-increasing waves of foreign investors flying to the kingdom to raise cash.
This year, however, has seen a sharp change in direction in terms of spending, with a stated emphasis on keeping investments at home along with reports of cutting costs on megaprojects like those in Neom. The changes come as the Saudi deficit grows and the outlook for oil demand, along with global oil prices, sees sustained lows.
Construction for The Line project in Saudi Arabia’s NEOM, October 2024
Giles Pendleton, The Line at NEOM
That begs the question: does Saudi Arabia have enough money to meet its lofty goals? Or will it have to be more flexible to make its spending trajectory sustainable?
One Gulf-based financier with years of experience in the kingdom told CNBC: “The PIF’s pivot towards domestic investments, widely acknowledged but now officially admitted, suggests that there is still a lot of spending needed. Saudi Arabia has poured tens of billions into projects that have yet to hint of any financial returns.”
The financier spoke anonymously as they were not authorized to speak to the press.
Andrew Leber, a researcher at Tulane University who focuses on the political economy of the Middle East, believes that the current pace of spending won’t last.
“The number of ‘we pay up front and hope for economic returns later’ giga projects that are currently underway is not sustainable,” Leber said.
“With that being said,” he added, “the Saudi monarchy has shown itself to be somewhat flexible whenever economic realities assert themselves. I do think that eventually, a number of projects will be quietly shelved in order to bring its fiscal outlays back into greater sustainability.”
Digital render of NEOM’s The Line project in Saudi Arabia
The Line, NEOM
Saudi Arabia in October cut its growth forecasts and raised its budget deficit estimates for the fiscal years 2024 to 2026 as it expects a period of higher spending and lower projected oil revenues. Real gross domestic product is now expected to grow 0.8% this year, a dramatic drop from a previous estimate of 4.4%, according to the ministry of finance.
The kingdom’s economy also swung dramatically from a budget surplus of $27.68 billion in 2022 to a deficit of $21.6 billion in 2023 as it ramped up public spending and decreased oil production due to its OPEC+ supply cut agreement. Its government forecasts a deficit of $21.1 billion for 2024, projecting revenue at $312.5 billion and expenditures at $333.5 billion.
Saudi authorities expect that the budget will remain in deficit for the next several years as it pursues its Vision 2030 plans, but they add that they are fully prepared for this.
“Our non-oil revenues have grown significantly, now it covers about 37% of expenditure. That’s a significant diversification, and that gives you a lot of comfort that you can maneuver and be stable despite the fluctuation in oil price,” Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan told CNBC in October. “Our aim is to make sure that our plans are stable and predictable.”
“We are not going to blink, we have significant fiscal resource under our disposal, and we are very disciplined in our fiscal position,” the minister said.
Saudi Arabia has an A/A-1 credit rating with a positive outlook from S&P Global Ratings and an A+ rating with a stable outlook from Fitch. That combined with high foreign currency reserves — $456.97 billion as of September, a 4% percent increase year-on-year, according to the country’s central bank — puts the kingdom in a comfortable place to manage a deficit, economists told CNBC.
Riyadh is successfully issuing bonds, tapping debt markets for more than $35 billion so far this year. The kingdom has also rolled out a series of reforms to boost and de-risk foreign investment and diversify revenue streams, which S&P Global said in September “will continue to improve Saudi Arabia’s economic resilience and wealth.”
When asked if the kingdom’s spending trajectory is sustainable, Al-Jadaan replied: “Absolutely, yes,” adding that the government recently published its numbers for the next three years and that “we think it is very sustainable.”
Still, many analysts outside the kingdom, as well as individuals working within the kingdom and on NEOM projects, are skeptical of the megaprojects’ feasibility. Reports that some projects have been dramatically cut down — in the case of the Line, its size target slashed from 106 miles to 1.5 miles and population target down from 1.5 million by 2030 to less than 300,000 — attest to that concern on a higher level.
Neom executives acknowledge that the current phase of work on The Line is for a building length of 1.5 miles — which would still make it the longest building in the world. However, the eventual goal of 106 miles has not changed, they say, stressing that cities are not built overnight and that construction is continuing apace.
For Tarik Solomon, chairman emeritus at the American Chamber of Commerce in Saudi Arabia, “it’s promising to see transparency and some project cutbacks.”
“The Kingdom’s rising external borrowing reflects challenges with Vision 2030 feasibility,” he told CNBC.
“Though debt remains manageable at 26.5% of GDP, continued small pressures add up, underscoring the need for fiscal discipline and achievable goals.”
Solomon pointed to the desire of many Saudi residents for improvements to the infrastructure they use in their daily lives — like Riyadh’s public transport, network connectivity, schools, and health care.
“The road to resilience for Saudi Arabia isn’t in figuring out ski slopes in the desert but in building with innovation, complexity, and the courage to pursue what’s truly impactful,” he said.
The Escape Solar and Storage project in Lincoln County, Nevada, will send clean power to big resort customers on the Las Vegas Strip.
Reno-based Estuary Power, Escape’s developer, closed a $340 million financing package for the solar and storage project in late December 2024.
Escape includes 185 megawatts (MW) of JinkoSolar PV capacity and 400 megawatt-hours (MWh) of Tesla battery storage capacity.
Escape will supply 115 MW of solar and 400 MWh of battery energy storage to MGM Resorts International, 25 MW to Caesars Entertainment, 20 MW to Wynn Las Vegas, and 25 MW to Overton Power District under long-term agreements.
MGM Resorts International has set a goal to source 100% of its energy from renewables by 2030. Las Vegas resorts are required to comply with Nevada’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which aims to increase the percentage of renewable energy to 50% by 2030. However, many resorts have already exceeded the 40% renewable energy requirement set by the state. The Venetian and Sands Expo and Convention Center partnered with NV Energy to procure renewable energy certificates to cover 100% of its electricity use.
Jill Daniel, CEO of majority woman-owned Estuary Power, said, “We look forward to supplying renewable energy to the iconic Las Vegas Strip and to our valued partner Overton Power District. We are thankful for the support of our financing partners in making the Escape project a reality.”
The project is the first utility-scale solar project to be developed in Lincoln County, just north of Las Vegas, where it will generate nearly $80 million in tax revenue for the county over its life span. It’s currently under construction and will begin operating in 2025.
Las Vegas is second in the US for solar capacity per capita.
Read more: This Florida solar farm is supplying clean energy to 12 cities
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Aptera has signed a memorandum of understanding with LG Energy Solutions to supply batteries for its solar EV, which it says will start deliveries later this year.
Aptera is at CES this week, showing off it’s production-intent solar EV. We stopped by the booth for a few pictures, but beyond that, there wasn’t a lot new to announce.
But that changed today, as Aptera has now officially announced that it’s partnering with LG Energy Solutions as the exclusive supplier for battery cells for the Aptera solar EV, and CTNS for battery pack assembly.
Aptera said this partnership accomplishes three goals:
- Enhance Aptera’s production capacity through a reliable and scalable battery supply chain.
- Solidify LG Energy Solution’s market presence as a trusted supplier.
- Strengthen CTNS’s reputation as a key manufacturing partner in the U.S. market.
The agreement runs from 2025 to 2031, with LG supplying 2170-format cylindrical cells for battery modules and packs that will be assembled by CTNS and designed by Aptera.
The agreement covers 4.4GWh of battery capacity supply. Given that the Aptera has a 44kWh, 400-mile battery pack (at least at launch, other options might be available at some point), that’s enough for a total of 100,000 vehicles – quite a lofty goal for a rather small company that is relying on crowdfunding and has not yet shipped a car.
“This partnership represents a significant milestone in bringing our solar electric vehicles to market with the reliability and performance our customers expect. LG Energy Solution and CTNS bring unparalleled expertise, and we’re excited to work together to power the future of sustainable transportation.”
-Chris Anthony, Co-CEO of Aptera Motors
LG is one of the largest EV battery cell manufacturers in the world, and the largest outside China. The largest is CATL, but that company has found itself on a US blacklist.
As part of Aptera’s CES announcements, it reaffirmed that it plans to deliver its first vehicles by the end of this year, showed off the production configuration of its solar panels covering the hood, dash, roof and hatch of the vehicle, and said that it drove the car for 20 miles on a Las Vegas winter day and ended up with more charge than it had when it started. You can read more about Aptera’s CES show presence on our previous coverage here.
Aptera says it has 50,000 reservations for its vehicle, at $100 a pop (or $70, if you use our Aptera referral link). You can reserve an Aptera over at Aptera’s website.
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The electric Mazda 6 predecessor is headed for Europe this summer. Mazda’s EV starts at around $20,000 in China, but prices are expected to be significantly higher in Europe. Here’s what we know about the Chinese-made EV so far.
When will Mazda launch its $20,000 EV overseas?
Mazda unveiled the EZ-6 at the Beijing Auto Show alongside the Arata SUV last April. The EZ-6 is the all-electric predecessor to the Mazda 6 sedan.
Mazda’s Chinese joint venture, Changan Mazda, has been selling the EZ-6 in China since October. The electric sedan, which starts at just 139,800 yuan, or around $19,200, is already off to a hot sales start.
With nearly 2,500 models sold in November, its first sales month, Changan Mazda said the EZ-6 was among the top three mid-size new energy vehicle (NEV) sedans of joint ventures sold in China. According to Nikkei, Mazda will export the $20,000 EV to Europe starting this summer.
Based on Changan Auto’s hybrid platform, the EX-6 is available in EV and extended-range configurations in China. The all-electric version has a CLTC range of up to 600 km (372 miles).
The electric Mazda EZ-6 is 4,921 mm long, 1,890 mm wide, and 1,485 mm tall with a wheelbase of 2,895 mm, or about the size of a Tesla Model 3 (4,720 mm long, 1,922 mm wide, and 1,441 mm tall with a 2,875 mm wheelbase).
Inside, the EZ-6 has a modern cabin setup with 14.6″ infotainment and 10.1″ driver display screens. It also includes premium features like a 50″ AR head-up display and zero-gravity reclining seats.
The imported model will feature improved stability and control for high-speed driving on European roads. Mazda will showcase the updated EZ-6 at the Brussels Motor Show, which kicks off on Friday.
Like many automakers, Mazda is looking to meet the EU’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates and avoid heavy fines. However, after the EU increased tariffs on Chinese EV imports to as much as 45.3%, Mazda will still have to pay the price.
China’s SAIC was hit the hardest with an extra 35.3% duty, while Geely (18.8%) and BYD (17%) were at the lower end. Other cooperating companies are subject to a 20.7% tariff, while non-cooperating automakers will have a duty of 35.3%.
Earlier this week, we learned Mazda will build a new module battery plant in Japan to supply its first dedicated EV. Although no details were revealed about the dedicated EV, Mazda said it will be powered by a new electric vehicle platform. The company aims to launch the new platform in 2027. Stay tuned for more.
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