Israel is said to be edging closer to a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to reports.
Israeli media outlets Haaretz, Walla, Ynet, Kan and American news website Axios reported both parties are getting closer to reaching a deal amid signs of progress in the US-led ceasefire talks.
It is suggested Israel has agreed to large parts of a ceasefire deal – but not all of it, yet.
An agreement could see an end to fighting that has seen more than 3,500 Lebanese killed and more than 15,000 injured in over a year.
Any potential agreement would also reportedly allow hundreds of thousands of people on both sides of the border to gradually return home, Axios reported.
It follows more airstrikes over the weekend which saw Hezbollah fire heavy rocket barrages at Israel on Sunday.
Israel’s military said houses had been destroyed or set alight near Tel Aviv, after an Israeli airstrike killed at least 29 people in Beirut the day before.
Israel also struck Beirut’s Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs.
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1:14
Beirut rocked by blasts
Hezbollah’s new leader Naim Kassem appeared to be open to a ceasefire with Israel during a speech last week.
He hinted at progress in the negotiations – and struck a positive tone looking ahead, saying: “We are thinking about the future of our country.”
Fighting began between Hezbollah in Lebanon and Israel the day after the 7 October Hamas attacks last year, and Israel launched a ground invasion earlier this year.
Reports claimed that the draft agreement included a 60-day transition period that would see the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) withdraw from southern Lebanon – where troops have been fighting the Iran-backed militant group.
It would also reportedly see Hezbollah move its heavy weapons north of the Litani River as the Lebanese army would deploy in areas close to the border – all in an effort to maintain peace.
Analysis: Expect bumps in the road ahead
Progress towards a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel has moved slowly but steadily in the right direction – it now seems that both sides are closing their positions on a truce that could be announced as early as this week.
Remaining issues are still to be resolved, particularly how the agreement will be enforced, a senior official in Israel’s prime minister’s office has told me.
Israel wants US guarantees that it can take military action if Hezbollah regroups in southern Lebanon, but there would need to be a reporting mechanism in place whereby Israel flags its concerns first before any military option.
If a ceasefire is agreed, it will be presented as a win by all sides: Israel will say, with justification, that it has successfully pushed Hezbollah forces back from its border, killed many of the group’s senior leadership, eliminated much of its military capability, created a safe environment for around 60,000 of its civilians to return home, and brought security on its northern border.
Hezbollah will likely boast it has continued its fight against Israel and support for Hamas for around 14 months, causing not insignificant damage to Israel and engaging the IDF in a tough battle in southern Lebanon.
And the United States, which has brokered the deal through its envoy Amos Hochstein, will be able to claim a foreign policy success at least on one front in the final weeks of Joe Biden’s presidency.
There will still be bumps in the road ahead.
It’s unclear how the Lebanese armed forces will be able to assume control of southern Lebanon given how stretched they already are, how Israel will prevent Hezbollah rearming through routes across the Syrian border, how decades-old territorial disputes will be resolved.
But right now the vibe, from both sides, is increasingly confident.
Quoting a senior Israeli source, one news site said “the direction was positive” but that an agreement hadn’t been finalised.
Other reports added that an announcement was possible this week if things went to plan.
According to Axios, the draft agreement includes a US-led oversight committee to monitor implementation and address any potential violations.
Image: A billboard in Iran depicts Mr Netanyahu and Mr Gallant in prison jumpsuits. Pic: Reuters
Ynet reported US envoy Amos Hochstein had informed Lebanon of Israel’s move towards agreeing to the settlement.
It added Mr Hochstein had previously made it clear to Israel that Lebanon had already agreed to the ceasefire before it did, and if this failed, no further efforts would be made before Donald Trump enters the White House in January.
Israel reportedly moved towards a potential deal after Mr Netanyahu held a meeting with his most senior ministers and intelligence chiefs.
While this would not mark the first time reports have emerged claiming a ceasefire deal is close in the region, any such step would be an important one.
Reports added among the negotiations, Israel sought assurances from the US that it could react with force if Hezbollah broke the terms of the ceasefire.
In a carefully written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the Russian army of deploying Chinese citizens on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine.
What about the proof? Well, the Ukrainian president says his security services captured two people from China in the Donetsk region – along with identity documents, personal data and their bank cards.
A video of a man in military fatigues who had been captured by Ukraine was pinned to the bottom of the statement.
We get snippets of a conversation where the alleged combatant seems to be talking about the events that led to his capture.
“When we arrived at the place… and then my commander.” The man gestures at the floor and ceiling, making shooting noises. “I was also injured.”
Image: Volodymyr Zelenskyy uploaded a video appearing to show a Chinese citizen in military uniform in Ukrainian custody
These details will make it difficult for the Chinese government to deny the incident out of hand, although they are highly unlikely to supply additional information.
Important details like, who are they? What function(s) do they fulfil in Ukraine’s occupied territories?
Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?
Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it?
The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his post, Mr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.
Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.
“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.
This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.
On one hand, Chinese President Xi Jinping describes China as a neutral party to the conflict, while simultaneously offering Mr Putin long-term political and economic support.
In fact, he described their partnership as a “no limits” one in a phone call with Mr Putin on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Mr Zelenskyy then, is making a point with this post – but he does not want to make the situation any worse.
The severity cannot be overstated, if an additional 50% tariffs are levied on all Chinese goods it will decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.
Remember, 50% would sit on top of what is already on the table: 34% announced last week, 20% announced at the start of US President Donald Trump’s term, and some additional tariffs left over from his first term in office.
In total, it means all Chinese goods would face tariffs of over 100%, some as high as 120%.
It’s a price that makes any trade almost impossible.
China is really the only nation in the world at the moment that is choosing to take a stand.
While others are publicly making concessions and sending delegations to negotiate, China has clearly calculated that not being seen to be bullied is worth the cost that retaliation will bring.
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6:50
Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump
The real question, though, is if the US does indeed impose this extra 50% tomorrow, what could or would China do next?
There are some obvious measures that China will almost certainly enact.
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Further export controls on rare earth minerals (crucial for the development of high-tech products) are one example. China controls a huge proportion of the world’s supply, but the US would likely find workarounds in time.
Hiking tariffs on high-impact US products such as agricultural goods is another option, but there is only so far this could go.
The potentially more impactful options have significant drawbacks for Beijing.
It could, for instance, target high-profile American companies such as Apple and Tesla, but this isn’t ideal at a time when China is trying to attract more foreign investment, and some devaluation of the currency is possible, but it would also come with adverse effects.
Other options are more political and come with the risk of escalation beyond the economic arena.
In an opinion piece this morning, the editor of Xinhua, China’s state news agency, speculated that China could cease all cooperation with the US on the war against fentanyl.
This has been a major political issue for Mr Trump, and it’s hard to see it would not constitute some sort of red line for him.
Other options touted include banning the import of American films, or perhaps calling for the Chinese public to boycott all American products.
Anything like this comes with a sense that the world’s two most powerful superpowers might be teetering on the edge of not just a total economic decoupling, but cultural separation too.
There is understandably serious nervousness about how that could spiral and the precedent it sets.
South Korea’s military said its soldiers fired warning shots at North Korean troops who crossed the demarcation line between the two countries.
Around 10 North Korean soldiers violated the military line on Tuesday, but returned after it made warning broadcasts and fired warning shots, South Korea’s military said.
In a text sent to reporters, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), said “North Korean soldiers crossed the military demarcation line (MDL) in the eastern area of the demilitarised zone (DMZ) around 5:00 pm local time.
Image: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, centre left in a black jacket, stands by what appeared to be a large reconnaissance drone at an undisclosed North Korean location. File pic: AP
“Our military is closely monitoring the North Korean military’s activity and taking necessary measures according to the operational procedures.”
Some of the North Korean soldiers were armed, according to the South Korean military.
There is no clear motive for the crossing, but tensions between the two countries have been running high as North Korean leader Kim Jong Un continues to order missile tests and align with Russia over President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine.
North Korean special operations units are among the thousands of troops that Pyongyang has sent to Russia to fight in the Ukraine war, according to South Korea.
In January, Pyongyang tested a hypersonic missile of intermediate range, in a sign of its determination to continue its weapons development programme.
Bloodshed and violent confrontations have occasionally occurred at the Koreas’ heavily fortified border, called the Demilitarised Zone, or DMZ.
But when North Korean troops briefly violated the border in June last year, it didn’t escalate as South Korean officials realised they were carrying construction tools and decided the incursion was accidental.
The 155-mile (249km)-long, 2.5-mile (4km)-wide DMZ is the world’s most heavily armed border.