The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely to last in the long term, according to a former British spy chief.
Sir Richard Dearlove – who ran MI6 between 1999 and 2004 – explained his concerns with the recently announced deal in an interview on the Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge.
As well as the situation in the Middle East, Sir Richard told Sophy that Europe is in a “war situation” with Russia, rather than a pre-war one, and that he believes the deal to hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius will collapse.
Since it began, people have been streaming back into the southern regions of Lebanon as Israel begins to withdraw its forces.
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1:22
Ceasefire day one: What happened?
Sir Richard says the deal is a “retreaded agreement from 2006” which was meant to keep Hezbollah separate from Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
This was supposed to be moderated by the UN and the Lebanese army, but over time “did absolutely nothing”, he added.
Instead, the former intelligence chief says the ceasefire suits both sides for the time being, as Israel has pushed Hezbollah away from the northern border – at least “in the short to medium term”.
He added: “The Israelis must know how much of the infrastructure of Hezbollah they’ve taken down.
“I mean, they haven’t taken it down completely, but maybe the Lebanese state can reassert some of its authority as the government of Lebanon and keep Hezbollah to an extent under control.
“We just have to wait and see what happens.”
Sir Richard went on to tell Sophy that the conflict has left Iran – which backs Hezbollah – “more exposed” as layers of its anti-Israel proxies have been removed.
This could lead to a more “direct confrontational situation” if Iran were to launch another attack on Israel.
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0:58
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire explained
‘I think it’s an actual war’
On the Ukraine war, Sir Richard said the UK government needs to “face up to the fact that the Russians think they’re in a state of war with us”.
The former top spook said the situation is an “actual war”.
He said: “We have to face up to the fact that the Russians think they’re in a state of war with us.
“Donald Tusk [the Polish prime minister] has referred to it as a pre-war situation. I think he’s wrong. I think it’s an actual war.”
“Now, that doesn’t mean in the Russian mind, the military conflict, but it means hybrid conflict or different types of conflict in different arenas of interest.”
Sir Richard says he’s always believed it’s important to have a dialogue with “one’s opponents or enemies” – saying this is especially key during a “contained conflict” in Europe which has the potential to spill over.
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Sir Richard says Marco Rubio – Donald Trump’s nomination for secretary of state, the US’s top foreign minister – believes Mauritius is too close diplomatically to China.
“I mean, I very much hope that Rubio and Trump shoot this agreement down. I mean, the Chagos Islands are strategically, really important,” he said.
US president-elect Donald Trump has refused to rule out military or economic action to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland – as he said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state.
Speaking at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Mr Trump made a series of sweeping claims on what his policies could look like when he takes office on 20 January.
He said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state, while he also declared US control of Greenland and the Panama Canal as vital to American national security.
The 78-year-old Republican also spoke of relations with Canada, as well as addressing his position on the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.
Sky News takes a look at some of the key claims brought up during the conference.
NATO
Mr Trump claimed “nobody knows more about NATO than I do”, before adding: “If it weren’t for me, NATO wouldn’t exist right now.
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“I raised from countries that weren’t paying their bills, over $680bn. I saved NATO, but NATO is taking advantage of us.”
The president-elect also said members of NATOshould be contributing 5% of their GDPs (gross domestic product) to defence spending – the previous target has been 2%.
Greenland and Panama Canal
Asked if he can reassure the world he won’t resort to military action or economic coercion in trying to get control of the areas, he said: “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two.”
“But, I can say this, we need them for economic security.”
He didn’t add any further detail around Greenland – which he has recently suggested the US should own or control – but he said the Panama Canal “was built for our military”.
He said the canal was “vital” to the country and China was “operating” it.
Mr Trump criticised the late Jimmy Carter for his role in signing over the Panama Canal to Panama during his presidency, saying it’s “a disgrace what took place” and “Jimmy Carter gave it to them for one dollar.”
Canada
A day after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, Mr Trump said he believed the US’ northern neighbour should become the 51st US state.
He mocked Mr Trudeau by calling him “governor” rather than prime minister.
He argued the US and Canada combined would amount to an “economic force” that would “really be something”.
“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Mr Trudeau responded.
Israel-Hamas war
Israel has been waging a 15-month war on the militant group ruling Gaza, Hamas, since they launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on 7 October which saw 1,200 people massacred and about 250 taken hostage, many of whom remain in captivity.
Mr Trump said: “If those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.”
Nearly 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s assault on Gaza, according to Hamas-run health officials in the enclave.
Referring to Russia’s ongoing full-scale war against its smaller neighbour, Mr Trump said a “big part of the problem” was Russian President Vladimir Putin had said for many years he did not want Ukraine involved with NATO.
“Somewhere along the line [outgoing President Joe] Biden said you can join NATO,” he said.
“Well, then Russia has NATO right on their doorstep.
“When I heard the way Biden was negotiating I said ‘you are going to end up in a war’ and it turned out to be a war.”
Asked if he would commit to keep supporting Ukraine during negotiations with Moscow, Mr Trump quipped: “Well, I wouldn’t tell you if that were the case.”
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The public articulation by Donald Trump of a new desired target for NATO allies to spend 5% of national income on defence will surely plunge governments across Europe into crisis mode – not least here in the UK.
Britain presents itself to the world and in particular to the United States as the biggest defence spender in Europe and NATO’smost powerful European military.
Yet Sir Keir Starmer has not even managed to set out a timeline for what he describes as a “path to 2.5%” of GDP being invested in his armed forces, up from just over 2% today.
If the prime minister merely sticks to this pledge, he risks being viewed by the new administration as woefully unambitious and not credible on defence.
Then there is the extraordinary threat by Mr Trump to seize Greenland by force if necessary, even though this valuable piece of territory belongs to a fellow NATO ally in the form of Denmark.
The move – were it to happen – would demonstrate the limitations of the alliance’s Article 5 founding principle.
It is supposed to guarantee that all allies would come to the defence of any member state which is under armed attack.
But what about if the aggressor is also meant to be an ally?
The president-elect also appeared to dash any hope of Ukraine being offered membership to the alliance anytime soon – a core request of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Instead, Mr Trump sounded sympathetic to Vladimir Putin’s absolute opposition to such a move.
He said he would meet the Russian president after taking office – reiterating a promise to end the war in Ukraine, though again without spelling out how.
The outbursts came in a lengthy press conference on Tuesday that marked the starting shot in what could be a make-or-break test for NATO – an alliance of transatlantic friends that rose from the ashes of the Second World War.
European members of NATO, as well as Canada, already took a battering the last time Mr Trump was in the White House – and rightly so.
The US had for far too long largely bankrolled the security of Europe, while the majority of its allies – including the UK – reaped the so-called “peace dividend” that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, swapping expenditure on defence for peacetime priorities such as economic growth, healthcare and education.
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1:31
From 2019: Was this the most awkward NATO summit ever?
Mr Trump made clear during his first term his displeasure about what he saw as Washington being ripped off and vowed to make Europe take its fair share of the burden.
He even warned member states that the US would not come to the aid of an ally that was not hitting at the very least a minimum NATO spending targeting of 2% of GDP – something they had previously pledged to do by 2024 but were slow to deliver on.
Such language electrified allies in a way that even Putin’s initial 2014 invasion of Ukraine, with the annexation of Crimea and attacks in the east of the country, had not.
Yet, with the threat from Russia growing in the wake of its full-scale war in Ukraine in 2022, coupled with conflict in the Middle East and the challenge posed by China, it has become clear that this heightened level of expenditure by allies was still far short of what is required to rebuild militaries across Europe that have been hollowed out over decades.
Mark Rutte, the new secretary general of NATO, set the stage for what is expected to be another push to ramp up investment when he delivered a landmark speech last month in which he called on allies to return to a “war mindset” and “turbocharge” defence spending.
He said this was to counter growing threats, but observers said it was also a pre-emptive response to the anticipated demands of the next Trump administration.
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2:41
‘Ukraine needs more arms, less talking’
Either way, it poses a huge challenge for all allies, in particular for Sir Keir Starmer.
He and Rachel Reeves face a choice: change course when it comes to their top priorities of economic growth, hospital waiting lists and new housing and instead invest more in defence or defy what will doubtless be growing demands from the United States to spend billions of pounds more on the UK armed forces – and maybe even leave the country in a position whereby the US would not come to its aid if attacked.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and its allied militias are committing genocide in Sudan while waging war against the army for control of the country, Joe Biden’s US administration has determined – two weeks before leaving office.
In a statement sharing the designation on Tuesday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken said the RSF and its aligned militias had “systematically murdered men and boys – even infants – on an ethnic basis” and “deliberately targeted women and girls from certain ethnic groups for rape and other forms of brutal sexual violence”.
He announced that Washington would impose sanctions on RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo and seven RSF-owned companies located in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The UAE is credibly accused of backing and arming the RSF – something it has strenuously denied.
When reached for comment by Reuters, the RSF rejected these measures and said: “America previously punished the great African freedom fighter Nelson Mandela, which was wrong.
“Today, it is rewarding those who started the war by punishing (RSF leader) general Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, which is also wrong.”
The RSF has been fighting Sudan’s army for territorial control of the country since war erupted in the capital, Khartoum, in April 2023.
The ensuing devastation has been described as the worst humanitarian crisis ever recorded – with over 11 million people forced out of their homes, tens of thousands dead, and 30 million in need of humanitarian assistance.
In December 2023, Mr Blinken announced that both warring parties had committed war crimes, but that the RSF in particular had committed crimes against humanity and ethnic cleansing.
He mentioned this precedent in this latest announcement, adding: “Today’s action is part of our continued efforts to promote accountability for all warring parties whose actions fuel this conflict.
“The United States does not support either side of this war, and these actions against Hemedti and the RSF do not signify support or favour for the SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces).
“Both belligerents bear responsibility for the violence and suffering in Sudan and lack the legitimacy to govern a future peaceful Sudan.”
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1:12
From November: RSF attacks farming villages leaving dozens dead
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