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“Just the man I want to talk to!”

We are out in Dover with Mike Tapp, the first elected Labour MP here for 20 years.

“When are you going to do something about these boats?” constituent Carol puts down her shopping to ask him.

Politics latest: Starmer rejects calls for election

Dover MP Mike Tapp with his constituent Carol
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Dover MP Mike Tapp with his constituent Carol

It is a cliche that in Dover all people want to talk about is immigration.

That’s not true. The NHS, schools, crime, and bills are on the minds of many of the dozens of people we’ve spoken to today; but immigration does come up, unprompted, an awful lot.

“I’d say it’s in the top two or three things most people want to talk about,” Mike Tapp tells me.

He thinks his pitch on immigration during the election, and the failed Conservative pledge to “Stop the Boats”, was a big part of the reason he won.

Since the July election, however, around 20,000 people have crossed the Channel in small boats. In October, this year’s total surpassed that of the whole of 2023.

Is Dover’s MP confident the government’s plan to dismantle smuggling gangs will impact the numbers by the next election? “Absolutely,” he says.

He may need to be right to survive – people here want quantitative evidence that the government’s plans are working.

On Thursday morning the UK’s net migration statistics will be released, along with Home Office data on small boat crossings. They will grab headlines and give us a sense of the big picture trends.

Read more:
Starmer’s plan to lower migration

PM takes aim at smuggling gangs

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June 2024: Highest UK net migration since 1855

Labour can’t be blamed, or take credit for, the figures which will cover the year to June.

Their plan to tackle irregular migration is a long term one and will take time to be born out in the numbers.

What we will see impacting the numbers tomorrow is the inherited policy on legal migration, which makes up the vast majority of the figures.

The expectation is overall net migration will fall.

Professor Brian Bell, chair of the Migration Advisory Committee, says it is “very difficult not to see them going down”.

Professor Brian Bell, chair of the Migration Advisory Council
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Professor Brian Bell, chair of the Migration Advisory Council

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) predicts net migration will fall from around 685,000 last year to around 300,000 in the next three years.

Sir Keir Starmer, the latest prime minister to pledge to get overall net migration falling, will benefit from a combination of factors.

Tighter immigration rules that came into force earlier this year – for example, a ban on care workers and students bringing dependents to the UK – and the fact fewer people are coming on humanitarian routes from places like Hong Kong and Ukraine, will help.

But those factors won’t solve the problems behind the figures. The care sector is still struggling to recruit and hard-up universities benefit from international student fees.

Care home manager Raj Sehgal tells me the dependents policy, brought in by the Conservatives and kept on by Labour, has had a “devastating impact” on the “quality and calibre” of recruits.

“Unfortunately governments work in figures, they don’t see the human side of what we do,” he says.

Raj Sehgal, the managing director of Armscare
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Raj Sehgal, the managing director of Armscare

The government has announced plans to up-skill British workers, including a new body called Skills England and the Industrial Strategy Council.

Professor Bell says “good progress” has been made, and the employment rights bill could help recruitment in sectors like care, but he adds: “The problem is going to be it is going to cost money. If you want to train more Brits to do engineering jobs you have to pay for them to do that training, you have to fund universities and further education colleges to put on those courses.”

Long gone are the days of Theresa May’s pledge to get net migration to the “tens of thousands”, or Rishi Sunak’s pledge to “Stop the Boats”.

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Labour have learnt to be less specific on all forms of migration.

They may well preside over a significant fall in legal migration.

Success, though, will be judged on whether they can solve the fundamentals beyond the numbers.

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UK weather: Weather warnings across the country with temperatures as low as -16C expected

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UK weather: Weather warnings across the country with temperatures as low as -16C expected

Warnings of widespread disruption caused by freezing weather have been issued, with temperatures expected to plummet to as low as -16C in some areas.

Snow, ice and fog warnings have been issued, following on from severe weather on Wednesday, with the South West and south of England particularly affected by heavy snow.

All of the warnings are yellow, meaning there is a danger of injury from slips and falls and some disruption to travel expected.

Devon and Cornwall saw roads closed and motorists stationary for “long periods of time”, a joint statement from Devon and Cornwall Police and Devon County Council Highways said.

Snow ploughs became stuck in queues of traffic caused by “minor incidents”, the statement added.

Ploughs have been fitted to gritters which will work into Thursday morning to clear routes in the area, police and highways officials said.

Temperatures are expected to fall as low as -16C on Thursday night both in the northeast of England and Scotland, the Met Office has said.

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Met office weather warnings for Thursday Pic: Met Office
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Met office weather warnings for Thursday Pic: Met Office

Huge waves smash against the sea front at Whitley Bay in North Tyneside Pic: PA
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Huge waves smash against the sea front at Whitley Bay in North Tyneside Pic: PA

A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for northern Scotland until midnight on Thursday and another snow and ice warning is in force for Northern Ireland until 11am on Thursday as sleet and snow showers are set to continue.

Meanwhile, a yellow fog warning has been issued for Northern Ireland until 9am on Thursday.

A further yellow warning for snow and ice affecting Cornwall, much of Wales and parts of northwest England has been issued until 11am on Thursday.

And a yellow ice warning has been issued for parts of southern England and south-east Wales until 10.30am on Thursday.

Travel disruption to road and rail services are likely on Thursday in the warning areas, as well as the potential for accidents in icy places, the forecaster said.

As icy conditions persist, motorists are being urged to stick to major roads that are most likely to have been gritted.

Car insurer RAC said it has seen the highest levels of demand for rescues in a three-day period since December 2022.

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Obesity rates may start falling this year due to weight loss jabs, seller says

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Obesity rates may start falling this year due to weight loss jabs, seller says

The UK may have reached peak obesity and rates could start falling rapidly later this year, Sky News has been told.

Data collected by one of the biggest online sellers of weight loss jabs suggests that so many people are now taking effective medication that the inexorable rise in obesity could start to reverse.

According to Simple Online Pharmacy, which has access to wholesale figures, 500,000 people in the UK are currently taking either Mounjaro or Wegovy – and they can expect to lose 15% to 20% of their weight over a matter of months.

Rebecca Moore, the company’s chief operating officer, said: “Our projections are that around a million people will reverse their obesity in a year.

“We should be at the point now, we believe, where we’re starting to see rates decline.

“We would not be surprised if by the end of this year we’ve seen a really significant decline in obesity.”

Rebecca Moore, chief operating officer of Simple Online Pharmacy
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Rebecca Moore, chief operating officer of Simple Online Pharmacy

The company has supplied the drugs to 200,000 people, who have collectively lost 600 tonnes of their weight.

Demand for medication is growing by 10% to 40% month-on-month, and the company has had to build a walk-in fridge to store enough medication to supply 400 patients an hour.

“The narrative has really shifted in the last few months,” said Ms Moore.

“People are recognising that obesity is a lifelong chronic condition. They’re recognising that this medication is a once-in-a-generation revolutionary technology.

“People are much more open to it and I expect that next year there will be another huge surge in growth.”

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The weight-loss drug that’s ‘too good’

Latest NHS figures show 27% of adults in England are obese, up from 15% in 1993.

Rates have started to plateau in the last couple of years as public health measures such as the sugar tax take effect.

But there are indications that obesity jabs have already begun to reverse obesity in the US and the same is likely to happen in the UK.

Around 95% of all patients using the medication are buying it privately, at a cost of around £150 a month.

Access on the NHS is poor, with research by Sky News showing just 800 patients had been prescribed Wegovy in specialist clinics four months after the rollout started in December 2023. That’s just 6% of the expected number.

And last month the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) bowed to demands from the NHS to restrict access to Mounjaro to just 200,000 of 3.4 million eligible patients over the first three years of the rollout.

Read more:
King Kong’ of weight loss jabs just too effective for NHS
Thousands denied jab due to slow NHS rollout

Wegovy injections

Sarah Le Brocq, founder of All About Obesity, sits as a patient representative on the NICE committee.

She said it was “hugely frustrating” that so many patients in need are being denied treatment.

“It’s not the NHS’s fault that they can’t fund these drugs,” she said.

“They need to have that money coming through [from government] because they can’t take it from cancer and put it into obesity.

“We are going to have tiered access. The wealthy can be healthy, but people who really need treatment can’t have it.”

Angela Chesworth had to do a ‘clinical trial’ of treatment on herself to prove to the NHS that the drugs could stop agonising abdominal pains that she suffered several times a week.

Angela Chesworth and her husband Paul
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Angela Chesworth and her husband Paul

Her consultant had agreed that her extra pounds were pulling on scar tissue from previous stomach surgery, but he was powerless to prescribe the treatment.

But since the summer, when she started weekly injections of Mounjaro, she has only had a couple of abdominal cramps and the NHS has now agreed to fund treatment.

“When you know there’s something out there that can help you, but you can’t have that help because of money or somebody who makes the rules, you feel worthless,” she told Sky News.

“Come and live in my shoes and see how I am and see how it affects me and then tell me I’m not worth the money.

“You want me to be part of society, you want me to do a job, you want me to expand the economy?

“I needed help, so it was very frustrating to be told no. And especially by the medical professionals.”

Her husband, Paul, is still having to buy his supply privately, despite being on the cusp of type 2 diabetes. After three months of treatment, he has lost two stone and is now healthy.

“I want to be healthy as long as I possibly can,” he said.

“For the last 15 years of his life my dad did not have good health or a good quality of life. He wasn’t able to get up in the morning quickly and ended up on a mobility scooter because he couldn’t walk far.

“All those things I want to try and avoid.”

The Department of Health said new drugs recommended by NICE need to be funded from existing NHS budgets. A spokesperson added: “We are also acting to tackle [obesity’s] causes, shifting our focus from treatment to prevention as part of our 10 Year Health Plan.”

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Food prices will rise due to budget tax hikes, retail body warns

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Food prices will rise due to budget tax hikes, retail body warns

Grocery shoppers are being warned of more hikes to food costs in the months ahead due to retailers passing on the cost of budget tax rises.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that food prices will increase by an average of 4.2% in the latter half of the year – piling more pressure on households at a time when consumers are already facing leaps in unavoidable costs including water, council tax and energy bills.

It blamed the impact of budget measures announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in October, which businesses have widely denounced as an attack on investment, jobs, and pay.

The retail body spoke up as many top retail brands reported on their Christmas progress ahead of April’s looming surge in costs.

Money latest: Pound sinks to nine-month low

Tesco warned of a £250m annual impact from higher employer National Insurance contributions alone from the next financial year while maintaining its annual profit forecast for 2024/25.

It cheered winning considerable market share over the festive season, leaving the UK’s biggest retailer in its best position since 2016.

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M&S reported robust growth in food sales, by 8.9% on a comparable basis, while growth in clothing and home and beauty was up by almost 2%.

Industry data released earlier this week already revealed Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Lidl and M&S were the big sales winners over Christmas, as far as groceries were concerned. Asda and the Co-op were seen as the main strugglers.

Ocado, which has a retail partnership with M&S, saw the largest growth in the online sphere.

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Warning of price hikes ahead

Much of the focus, however, is on the future given the volume of complaints within the sector – one of the country’s biggest employers – about the budget measures.

The key message since the fiscal event has been that shoppers will pay a price.

The industry sales data, revealed by Kantar Worldpanel on Tuesday, showed the annual rate of grocery price inflation at 3.7% in the four-week December period, its highest level since March, and a jump on the 2.6% reported for the 12 months to November.

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HMV owner slams budget ‘burden’

Read more: Growing threat to finances from rising bills

The BRC’s chief executive, Helen Dickinson, said on Thursday: “As retailers battle the £7bn of increased costs in 2025 from the budget, including higher employer NI (National Insurance), National Living Wage, and new packaging levies, there is little hope of prices going anywhere but up.

“Modelling by the BRC and retail chief financial officers suggest food prices will rise by an average of 4.2% in the latter half of the year, while non-food will return firmly to inflation.

“Government can still take steps to mitigate these price pressures, and it must ensure that its proposed reforms to business rates do not result in any stores paying more in rates than they do already.”

Despite the looming pressure ahead on supermarket margins from the budget, it is clear that grocery chains had a robust Christmas season.

Tesco boss Ken Murphy said: “We delivered our biggest-ever Christmas, with continued market share growth and switching gains.

“Our strong performance reflects the investments we have made, positioning Tesco as the UK’s cheapest full-line grocer for over two years, improving quality across all our ranges, with more than half of this year’s Christmas range new or improved, and providing the best experience for our customers in-store and online.”

His counterpart at M&S, Stuart Machin, said: “The external environment remains challenging, with cost and economic headwinds to navigate, but there is much within our control.

“At M&S, we stay close to our customers and their needs, and with that in mind our investment in trusted value, along with great quality, style and innovation remains our priority.”

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