Oil watchers say inflation risks will stave off Trump’s Canada tariff threat
Working oil pumps against a sunset sky.
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Higher fuel prices could be in the cards if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his tariff threats on Canada, according to industry experts, who are skeptical on whether the new levies will ever be implemented.
Trump on Monday pledged to implement additional tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency, according to his posts on social media platform Truth Social. He said he would sign an executive order on Jan. 20 imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, a move that may breach the terms of a regional free trade agreement.
Goldman Sachs’ Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven said that if a 25% levy hit Canadian crude exports to the U.S. “that could, in theory, lead to some pretty significant consequences for three groups.”
U.S. refiners who rely on Canadian oil barrels could face lower profit margins, and consumers may potentially face higher prices, surmised Struyven. Lastly, Canadian producers may suffer revenue losses if they are unable to reroute their barrels that would have otherwise gone to the U.S.
America’s imports of Canadian crude oil hit a record of 4.3 million barrels per day in July 2024 after the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows.
Daan Struyven
Goldman Sachs
Additionally, refiners in the Midwest, which are more adapted to process Canada’s heavy sour crude rather than the low sulfur sweet crude produced domestically, could also have problems switching should the Canadian imports be interrupted, Struyven told journalists at an online conference.
“If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows,” Struyven said.
Mexico and especially Canada have “notable tightly integrated linkages” with the U.S. when it comes to the oil, natural gas and auto industries, Citigroup wrote in a note following Trump’s announcements this week.
“Absent carve-outs, this would increase costs for U.S. refiners and U.S. consumers,” said the bank’s research team led by Energy Strategist Eric Lee.
However, Goldman highlighted that it is unlikely that the tariffs will be implemented as announced, on the premise that the Trump administration is focused on reducing energy costs.
Trump cannot allow inflation to get out of control in the 15 months before the midterm election season, Viktor Shvets, global strategist at Macquarie Capital, told CNBC. Shvets believes that tariffs are used as a negotiating tool to achieve certain objectives such as strengthening the border.
“I do not believe for a second that there will be a massive increase in overall tariffs because that will represent a tax on U.S. domestic manufacturers. That will also represent a tax on U.S. exporters,” said Shvets.
Canada’s trade bodies have shared their concerns, too.
“As Canadians, we need to be eyes-wide-open on the President-elect’s promise for across-the-board tariffs,” the CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Lisa Baiton, reportedly said.
Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta which accounts for the largest production of crude in Canada, said that the Trump administration has “valid concerns related to illegal activities at our shared border,” and urged the federal government to resolve said issues immediately to avoid any “unnecessary tariffs” on Canadian exports.
Slate Auto, a new EV startup backed by Jeff Bezos, has poached a key Tesla manufacturing leader to build its electric pickup truck factory in Indiana.
Napoleon Reyes is a US Marine from Indiana who got a degree in mechanical engineering from Purdue after leaving the force.
He then worked a few years at Subaru and Wabash before joining Tesla’s manufacturing team at the Fremont Factory in 2020.
There, he became part of the Model Y production ramp and was quickly promoted to lead the Model Y General Assembly in Fremont in 2022.
Reyes led Model Y GA, one of the most critical parts of vehicle manufacturing, for more than a year before being promoted again to lead new pilot processes at the factory.
Most recently, he led the launch of the general assembly line for the Model Y refresh.
The new engineering manager announced this week that he is leaving Tesla to join Slate:
A bit late on the post but after nearly 5 years working at Tesla in Fremont, I made the difficult decision to leave the Company and move closer to home with my family. It was an incredible experience being part of multiple line expansions and multiple Model Y program launches. Leading and managing the Model Y Refresh launch for GA in Fremont this year tested me professionally however we ultimately succeeded due to our amazing cross functional team collaboration. It’s been an absolute pleasure working with such great people, and I will forever be proud and thankful for everything we accomplished together.
I will be taking on a new role as Senior Manager, Plant Vehicle Engineering at Slate Auto in Warsaw, In.
Slate emerged from stealth mode earlier this year to unveil a new type of electric pickup truck featuring modular customization and an affordable price.
The company raised over $700 million through two rounds of investments from several different investors, including Jeff Bezos. It is currently raising more, which basically guarantees that it will be able to reach production.
The startup acquired a former printing plant in Warsaw, Indiana. It is currently converting to manufacture its electric pickup with a team from legacy automakers and also several former engineers and leaders from Tesla.
Rich Schmidt, an early Tesla manufacturing director, is the head of manufacturing.
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Genesis is preparing to shake things up with its most luxurious SUV yet, the GV90. Thanks to a new patent filing, we are getting a detailed look at how its Rolls-Royce-style coach doors will work.
New patent reveals Genesis GV90 coach door system
When Genesis first unveiled the full-size SUV at the NY Auto Show last March, it wasn’t the stunning design or advanced tech that caught everyone’s attention. It was the coach doors.
Although we were worried it wouldn’t make it to the production model, like many concepts, the Genesis GV90 will be offered with coach doors.
The ultra-luxe electric SUV was first caught with coach doors earlier this year on a car carrier in South Korea. Just last month, the GV90 was spotted in California with a hinge at the rear to open the coach doors.
After several new patents were filed with the United States Patent and Trademark Office for new door latching devices, we are getting a sneak peek at how they are expected to work.
The patents, titled “Cinching Device For Door Latches in Vehicle,” and “Door Latch Device for Vehicles,” give a pretty detailed explanation of how the Genesis GV90’s coach doors will operate. The “Door Latch Device” uses a door striker on the lower side of the door, which is opened or closed by a hinge unit.
Unlike traditional doors, which use the B-pillar for support, the device is attached directly to the door itself, allowing for hinge-like movement.
The cinching device works in a similar way. It’s also attached to the door and part of the vehicle. However, unlike most of its kind, Genesis found a way to use a single cinching device to control multiple units. Again, the device is used for B-pillarless doors that swing open.
Genesis already said that B-pillarless coach doors are now feasible in production vehicles. The patent reveals a glimpse into how the luxury automaker could make it a reality.
Although the Genesis GV90 is expected to be offered with coach doors, they will likely not be standard. Other variants, with traditional door handles, have also been spotted testing in the US and South Korea.
Genesis is expected to launch the GV90 in mid-2026. It will be built at Hyundai’s Ulsan plant in South Korea. The flagship Genesis SUV is scheduled to debut on Hyundai’s new eM platform, which the company said will “provide 50% improvement in driving range.” It will also be loaded with the latest technology, software, connectivity, and Level 3 or higher autonomous driving capabilities.
Source: USPTO
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Environment
Podcast: Tesla Model YL, more Tesla probes and lawsuits, new Nissan Leaf pricing, and more
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss the launch of the Tesla Model YL, more Tesla probes and lawsuits, new Nissan Leaf pricing, and more.
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