Oil watchers say inflation risks will stave off Trump’s Canada tariff threat
Working oil pumps against a sunset sky.
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Higher fuel prices could be in the cards if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his tariff threats on Canada, according to industry experts, who are skeptical on whether the new levies will ever be implemented.
Trump on Monday pledged to implement additional tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency, according to his posts on social media platform Truth Social. He said he would sign an executive order on Jan. 20 imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, a move that may breach the terms of a regional free trade agreement.
Goldman Sachs’ Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven said that if a 25% levy hit Canadian crude exports to the U.S. “that could, in theory, lead to some pretty significant consequences for three groups.”
U.S. refiners who rely on Canadian oil barrels could face lower profit margins, and consumers may potentially face higher prices, surmised Struyven. Lastly, Canadian producers may suffer revenue losses if they are unable to reroute their barrels that would have otherwise gone to the U.S.
America’s imports of Canadian crude oil hit a record of 4.3 million barrels per day in July 2024 after the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows.
Daan Struyven
Goldman Sachs
Additionally, refiners in the Midwest, which are more adapted to process Canada’s heavy sour crude rather than the low sulfur sweet crude produced domestically, could also have problems switching should the Canadian imports be interrupted, Struyven told journalists at an online conference.
“If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows,” Struyven said.
Mexico and especially Canada have “notable tightly integrated linkages” with the U.S. when it comes to the oil, natural gas and auto industries, Citigroup wrote in a note following Trump’s announcements this week.
“Absent carve-outs, this would increase costs for U.S. refiners and U.S. consumers,” said the bank’s research team led by Energy Strategist Eric Lee.
However, Goldman highlighted that it is unlikely that the tariffs will be implemented as announced, on the premise that the Trump administration is focused on reducing energy costs.
Trump cannot allow inflation to get out of control in the 15 months before the midterm election season, Viktor Shvets, global strategist at Macquarie Capital, told CNBC. Shvets believes that tariffs are used as a negotiating tool to achieve certain objectives such as strengthening the border.
“I do not believe for a second that there will be a massive increase in overall tariffs because that will represent a tax on U.S. domestic manufacturers. That will also represent a tax on U.S. exporters,” said Shvets.
Canada’s trade bodies have shared their concerns, too.
“As Canadians, we need to be eyes-wide-open on the President-elect’s promise for across-the-board tariffs,” the CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Lisa Baiton, reportedly said.
Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta which accounts for the largest production of crude in Canada, said that the Trump administration has “valid concerns related to illegal activities at our shared border,” and urged the federal government to resolve said issues immediately to avoid any “unnecessary tariffs” on Canadian exports.
The Escape Solar and Storage project in Lincoln County, Nevada, will send clean power to big resort customers on the Las Vegas Strip.
Reno-based Estuary Power, Escape’s developer, closed a $340 million financing package for the solar and storage project in late December 2024.
Escape includes 185 megawatts (MW) of JinkoSolar PV capacity and 400 megawatt-hours (MWh) of Tesla battery storage capacity.
Escape will supply 115 MW of solar and 400 MWh of battery energy storage to MGM Resorts International, 25 MW to Caesars Entertainment, 20 MW to Wynn Las Vegas, and 25 MW to Overton Power District under long-term agreements.
MGM Resorts International has set a goal to source 100% of its energy from renewables by 2030. Las Vegas resorts are required to comply with Nevada’s Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), which aims to increase the percentage of renewable energy to 50% by 2030. However, many resorts have already exceeded the 40% renewable energy requirement set by the state. The Venetian and Sands Expo and Convention Center partnered with NV Energy to procure renewable energy certificates to cover 100% of its electricity use.
Jill Daniel, CEO of majority woman-owned Estuary Power, said, “We look forward to supplying renewable energy to the iconic Las Vegas Strip and to our valued partner Overton Power District. We are thankful for the support of our financing partners in making the Escape project a reality.”
The project is the first utility-scale solar project to be developed in Lincoln County, just north of Las Vegas, where it will generate nearly $80 million in tax revenue for the county over its life span. It’s currently under construction and will begin operating in 2025.
Las Vegas is second in the US for solar capacity per capita.
Read more: This Florida solar farm is supplying clean energy to 12 cities
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Aptera has signed a memorandum of understanding with LG Energy Solutions to supply batteries for its solar EV, which it says will start deliveries later this year.
Aptera is at CES this week, showing off it’s production-intent solar EV. We stopped by the booth for a few pictures, but beyond that, there wasn’t a lot new to announce.
But that changed today, as Aptera has now officially announced that it’s partnering with LG Energy Solutions as the exclusive supplier for battery cells for the Aptera solar EV, and CTNS for battery pack assembly.
Aptera said this partnership accomplishes three goals:
- Enhance Aptera’s production capacity through a reliable and scalable battery supply chain.
- Solidify LG Energy Solution’s market presence as a trusted supplier.
- Strengthen CTNS’s reputation as a key manufacturing partner in the U.S. market.
The agreement runs from 2025 to 2031, with LG supplying 2170-format cylindrical cells for battery modules and packs that will be assembled by CTNS and designed by Aptera.
The agreement covers 4.4GWh of battery capacity supply. Given that the Aptera has a 44kWh, 400-mile battery pack (at least at launch, other options might be available at some point), that’s enough for a total of 100,000 vehicles – quite a lofty goal for a rather small company that is relying on crowdfunding and has not yet shipped a car.
“This partnership represents a significant milestone in bringing our solar electric vehicles to market with the reliability and performance our customers expect. LG Energy Solution and CTNS bring unparalleled expertise, and we’re excited to work together to power the future of sustainable transportation.”
-Chris Anthony, Co-CEO of Aptera Motors
LG is one of the largest EV battery cell manufacturers in the world, and the largest outside China. The largest is CATL, but that company has found itself on a US blacklist.
As part of Aptera’s CES announcements, it reaffirmed that it plans to deliver its first vehicles by the end of this year, showed off the production configuration of its solar panels covering the hood, dash, roof and hatch of the vehicle, and said that it drove the car for 20 miles on a Las Vegas winter day and ended up with more charge than it had when it started. You can read more about Aptera’s CES show presence on our previous coverage here.
Aptera says it has 50,000 reservations for its vehicle, at $100 a pop (or $70, if you use our Aptera referral link). You can reserve an Aptera over at Aptera’s website.
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The electric Mazda 6 predecessor is headed for Europe this summer. Mazda’s EV starts at around $20,000 in China, but prices are expected to be significantly higher in Europe. Here’s what we know about the Chinese-made EV so far.
When will Mazda launch its $20,000 EV overseas?
Mazda unveiled the EZ-6 at the Beijing Auto Show alongside the Arata SUV last April. The EZ-6 is the all-electric predecessor to the Mazda 6 sedan.
Mazda’s Chinese joint venture, Changan Mazda, has been selling the EZ-6 in China since October. The electric sedan, which starts at just 139,800 yuan, or around $19,200, is already off to a hot sales start.
With nearly 2,500 models sold in November, its first sales month, Changan Mazda said the EZ-6 was among the top three mid-size new energy vehicle (NEV) sedans of joint ventures sold in China. According to Nikkei, Mazda will export the $20,000 EV to Europe starting this summer.
Based on Changan Auto’s hybrid platform, the EX-6 is available in EV and extended-range configurations in China. The all-electric version has a CLTC range of up to 600 km (372 miles).
The electric Mazda EZ-6 is 4,921 mm long, 1,890 mm wide, and 1,485 mm tall with a wheelbase of 2,895 mm, or about the size of a Tesla Model 3 (4,720 mm long, 1,922 mm wide, and 1,441 mm tall with a 2,875 mm wheelbase).
Inside, the EZ-6 has a modern cabin setup with 14.6″ infotainment and 10.1″ driver display screens. It also includes premium features like a 50″ AR head-up display and zero-gravity reclining seats.
The imported model will feature improved stability and control for high-speed driving on European roads. Mazda will showcase the updated EZ-6 at the Brussels Motor Show, which kicks off on Friday.
Like many automakers, Mazda is looking to meet the EU’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates and avoid heavy fines. However, after the EU increased tariffs on Chinese EV imports to as much as 45.3%, Mazda will still have to pay the price.
China’s SAIC was hit the hardest with an extra 35.3% duty, while Geely (18.8%) and BYD (17%) were at the lower end. Other cooperating companies are subject to a 20.7% tariff, while non-cooperating automakers will have a duty of 35.3%.
Earlier this week, we learned Mazda will build a new module battery plant in Japan to supply its first dedicated EV. Although no details were revealed about the dedicated EV, Mazda said it will be powered by a new electric vehicle platform. The company aims to launch the new platform in 2027. Stay tuned for more.
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