Oil watchers say inflation risks will stave off Trump’s Canada tariff threat
Working oil pumps against a sunset sky.
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Higher fuel prices could be in the cards if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his tariff threats on Canada, according to industry experts, who are skeptical on whether the new levies will ever be implemented.
Trump on Monday pledged to implement additional tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico on day one of his presidency, according to his posts on social media platform Truth Social. He said he would sign an executive order on Jan. 20 imposing a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, a move that may breach the terms of a regional free trade agreement.
Goldman Sachs’ Co-Head of Global Commodities Research Daan Struyven said that if a 25% levy hit Canadian crude exports to the U.S. “that could, in theory, lead to some pretty significant consequences for three groups.”
U.S. refiners who rely on Canadian oil barrels could face lower profit margins, and consumers may potentially face higher prices, surmised Struyven. Lastly, Canadian producers may suffer revenue losses if they are unable to reroute their barrels that would have otherwise gone to the U.S.
America’s imports of Canadian crude oil hit a record of 4.3 million barrels per day in July 2024 after the expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows.
Daan Struyven
Goldman Sachs
Additionally, refiners in the Midwest, which are more adapted to process Canada’s heavy sour crude rather than the low sulfur sweet crude produced domestically, could also have problems switching should the Canadian imports be interrupted, Struyven told journalists at an online conference.
“If we were to see a 25% tariff on Canadian energy exports, I think it could have some very significant ramifications for trade flows,” Struyven said.
Mexico and especially Canada have “notable tightly integrated linkages” with the U.S. when it comes to the oil, natural gas and auto industries, Citigroup wrote in a note following Trump’s announcements this week.
“Absent carve-outs, this would increase costs for U.S. refiners and U.S. consumers,” said the bank’s research team led by Energy Strategist Eric Lee.
However, Goldman highlighted that it is unlikely that the tariffs will be implemented as announced, on the premise that the Trump administration is focused on reducing energy costs.
Trump cannot allow inflation to get out of control in the 15 months before the midterm election season, Viktor Shvets, global strategist at Macquarie Capital, told CNBC. Shvets believes that tariffs are used as a negotiating tool to achieve certain objectives such as strengthening the border.
“I do not believe for a second that there will be a massive increase in overall tariffs because that will represent a tax on U.S. domestic manufacturers. That will also represent a tax on U.S. exporters,” said Shvets.
Canada’s trade bodies have shared their concerns, too.
“As Canadians, we need to be eyes-wide-open on the President-elect’s promise for across-the-board tariffs,” the CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, Lisa Baiton, reportedly said.
Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta which accounts for the largest production of crude in Canada, said that the Trump administration has “valid concerns related to illegal activities at our shared border,” and urged the federal government to resolve said issues immediately to avoid any “unnecessary tariffs” on Canadian exports.
The State of California is moving to ban the sale of Tesla cars amid claims that the company and its CEO, Elon Musk, have misled buyers about the self-driving capabilities of their cars. We’ve also got market-leading news out of Vietnam and a pricey, pricey lesson for one VW ID.Buzz buyer on today’s lesson-learning episode of Quick Charge!
We also ask what this might mean for the recent Uber/Lucid autonomous taxi tie-up and go through a full rundown of the fastest depreciating EVs on the market (and yes, there are four Tesla models in the top 10 … because the Cybertruck was too new to qualify).
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If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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Sunrun is putting tens of thousands of home batteries to work in Puerto Rico as the island’s electric grid faces a summer of high temperatures and energy shortfalls.
The company says it’s now dispatching energy from over 37,000 residential batteries to help grid operator LUMA keep the lights on. That stored power is being used to prevent rolling blackouts when demand spikes and centralized power plants can’t keep up.
Sunrun’s emergency power contribution has grown more than tenfold since last summer. LUMA expects more than 75 energy shortfall events between now and October, with each dispatch sending electricity to the grid for four consecutive hours. During several recent evenings, Sunrun and other virtual power plant (VPP) operators provided enough energy to offset a 50-megawatt generation gap, LUMA said.
Sunrun CEO Mary Powell said Puerto Rico’s aging infrastructure and intense weather patterns make home battery support increasingly critical:
It’s going to be a very difficult summer, which is why Sunrun has ramped up our dispatch capabilities, using tens of thousands of home batteries to support the grid and people of Puerto Rico.
She added that distributed power plants like Sunrun’s serve the same role as natural gas peaker plants – offering fast, reliable power during high-demand moments – but with clean energy.
Sunrun customers enrolled in the VPP will get paid too. Each participating battery earns about $200 minimum for the season, and customers who allow more of their stored energy to go to the grid earn even more. Sunrun also earns revenue for operating the VPP.
Read more: The US’s largest virtual power plant now runs on 75,000 home batteries
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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Volkswagen is advertising ID.4 leases starting at just $99 a month. It’s hard to find any car lease these days for under $100 a month, but for $45,000 electric SUV, it’s almost unheard of.
Volkswagen offers ID.4 leases as low as $99 a month
The Volkswagen ID.4 was the third top-selling EV in the US in January after the 2025 model year went back on sale.
Volkswagen’s electric SUV starts at $45,095 with an EPA-estimated driving range of 291 miles. It’s available in five different trims: Pro, AWD Pro, Pro S, AWD Pro S, and AWD Pro S Plus.
The base 2025 VW ID.4 Pro RWD is equipped with 282 hp from a single rear electric motor. Inside, it features a 12.9″ infotainment system with Android Auto and Apple CarPlay support, heated front seats, dual-zone climate control, and Volkswagen’s new ID.Cockpit digital instrument display.
Upgrading to the AWD version will gain a tow hitch and an additional 53 hp, for a combined maximum of 335 hp. The added power comes at the cost of some range, with an EPA-estimated range of 263 miles.
Volkswagen was already offering 2025 ID.4 leases as low as $129 a month, but some dealers are listing it for even less this month.
A California dealership, Volkswagen of Garden Grove, has the 2025 ID.4 Pro RWD listed for lease at just $99 per month. The offer is for 24 months with $2,995 down. According to the dealer, the offer includes a $5,000 cash back bonus, good on a new ID.4 purchase or lease.
We thought the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 5 was a good deal with leases starting at just $179 per month, but for $99, now that’s a steal.
Looking for deals on the Volkswagen ID.4 near you? You can use our link to find and view offers on the 2025 Volkswagen ID.4 in your area (via a trusted affiliate link)
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