He’s ‘a clear and present danger’ to Ireland’s economy, so no wonder Donald Trump is key to its election campaign
The closely-fought Irish general election campaign has entered its final day, as concern over the economic threat posed by Donald Trump becomes an electoral theme.
With housing and the cost of living among key concerns, Irish voters are being wooed with substantial spending promises from the main parties, despite economists warning of “a clear and present danger” to Ireland’s corporation tax revenues from the president-elect, who assumes office in Washington on 20 January.
Around a quarter of Ireland’s tax take comes from foreign-owned multinational companies, largely in the technology, pharmaceutical and chemical sectors.
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Irish election: What you need to know
Donald Trump wants those American firms to book their profits, and pay their taxes, in the US instead.
He also has plans for tariffs of up to 20% on goods from EU countries. Ireland currently has a record trade surplus with the US of some €35bn (£29bn).
Mr Trump’s choice for commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, has already taken aim at Ireland’s trade policies, saying it’s “nonsense that Ireland of all places runs a trade surplus at our expense…when we end this nonsense, America will be a truly great country again. You’ll be shocked”.
These are ominous signs for Irish economists like Dan O’Brien, who works with the Institute of International and European Affairs.
He said it’s “very difficult to overstate how dependent on its economic integration with the United States” Ireland is, as in many ways “it’s the basis of our economic model”.
“If we didn’t have those American companies here employing hundreds of thousands of people directly, many more indirectly, manufacturing goods to sell to the United States, paying a lot of corporation tax, the Irish economy would look radically different.”
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Micheal Martin rules out coalition with Sinn Fein
For Mr O’Brien, the spending plans of Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, who along with the Green Party formed the last government, as well as those of the main opposition party Sinn Fein, need to be viewed with caution.
Mr O’Brien said: “It’s very stark to listen to the political debate in the UK, where it’s so much about austerity as it is in many European countries these days, and here in Ireland, where the politicians are promising everything because the public finances are so good. It’s always a mistake for politicians to pretend to voters that the good times will go on forever.
“I’m not saying it’s going to be a recession or worse, but it is a clear and present danger given what the most powerful man in the world has said he is going to do.”
On the campaign trail, the issue of Donald Trump’s plans has increasingly been put to candidates.
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Sinn Fein will demand referendum
At an event in Dundrum, Co Dublin, Sky News asked Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris why the second Trump term is being viewed as such a threat, especially as corporation tax revenues in Ireland increased during the first Trump White House.
Mr Harris said: “Trump 2.0, the second Trump presidency, is not the same as the first for a variety of reasons, including the fact that he’s received a very large mandate.
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Irish PM speaks to Sky News
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“If three US companies left Ireland, it could cost us €10bn (£8bn) in corporation tax. I’m not pre-empting that, I’m not saying it’s going to happen, I’m not predicting it, but that’s the level of risk that our economy is exposed to.”
Asked if Ireland should be scared of the new administration, Mr Harris replied: “No, but we shouldn’t be in any way ignorant to the policy platform that President Trump has put forward.”
This is the highest stakes diplomacy via social media.
The American president just posted on his Truth Social platform: “We know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding.
“He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers.
“Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
Israel-Iran live: Trump says US knows where Iran’s supreme leader is ‘hiding’
It was followed minutes later by “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!”
In real-time, we are witnessing Donald Trump’s extreme version of maximum pressure diplomacy.
He’d probably call it the ‘art of the deal’, but bunker busters are the tool, and it comes with such huge consequences, intended and unintended, known and unknown.
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The bunker buster bomb which could destroy Iran’s nuclear ambitions
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Nuclear sites targeted in Iran
There is intentional ambiguity in the president’s messaging. His assumption is that he can apply his ‘art of the deal’ strategy to a deeply ideological geopolitical challenge.
It’s all playing out publicly. Overnight, the New York Times, via two of its best-sourced reporters, had been told that Mr Trump is weighing whether to use B-2 aircraft to drop bunker-busting bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, Axios was reporting that a meeting is possible between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.
The reporting came just as Mr Trump warned “everyone in Tehran to evacuate”. The nuclear sites being threatened with bunker busters are not in Tehran, but Trump’s words are designed to stoke tension, to confuse and to apply intense pressure.
His actions are too. He left the G7 in Canada early and asked his teams to gather in the White House Situation Room.
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Trump: ‘I want an end, not a ceasefire’
This is a game of smoke, mirrors, brinkmanship and – maybe – bluff. In Tehran, what’s left of the leadership is watching and reading closely as they consider what’s next.
Maybe the Supreme Leader and his regime’s days are numbered. Things remain very unpredictable.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
From history, though, regime change, even when it comes with a plan – and there is certainly not one here, spells civil war and from that comes a refugee crisis.
These are truly tense and chaotic times.
World
Ukraine war: 14 killed as Russian missile and drone attacks strike Kyiv – including American citizen
Russian missile and drone attacks have killed 14 people in Kyiv overnight, according to Ukrainian officials.
A 62-year-old US citizen who suffered shrapnel wounds is among the dead.
At least 99 others were wounded in strikes that hollowed out a residential building and destroyed dozens of apartments.
Pic: AP
Emergency workers were at the scene to rescue people from under the rubble.
Images show a firefighter was among those hurt, with injured residents evacuated from their homes.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the attack as “one of the most terrifying attacks on Kyiv” – and said Russian forces had fired 440 drones and 32 missiles as civilians slept in their homes.
“[Putin] wants the war to go on,” he said. “It is troubling when the powerful of this world turn a blind eye to it.”
Pic: AP
Ukraine’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said 27 locations across the capital have been hit – including educational institutions and critical infrastructure.
He claimed the attack, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, was one of the largest on the capital since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
Drones swarmed over the city, with an air raid alert remaining in force for seven hours.
One person was killed and 17 others injured as a result of separate Russian drone strikes in the port city of Odesa.
Pic: Reuters
It comes as the G7 summit in Canada continues, which Ukraine’s leader is expected to attend.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy was due to hold talks with Donald Trump – but the president has announced he is unexpectedly returning to Washington because of tensions in the Middle East.
Ukraine’s foreign minister says Moscow’s decision to attack Kyiv during the summit is a signal of disrespect to the US.
Moscow has launched a record number of drones and missiles in recent weeks, and says the attacks are in retaliation for a Ukrainian operation that targeted warplanes in airbases deep within Russian territory.
Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko says fires broke out in two of the city’s districts as a result of debris from drones shot down by the nation’s air defences.
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Pic: AP
On X, Ukraine’s foreign ministry wrote: “Russia’s campaign of terror against civilians continues. Its war against Ukraine escalates with increased brutality.
“The only way to stop Russia is tighter pressure – through sanctions, more defence support for Ukraine, and limiting Russia’s ability to keep sowing war.”
Olena Lapyshnak, who lived in one of the destroyed buildings, said: “It’s horrible, it’s scary, in one moment there is no life. I can only curse the Russians, that’s all I can say. They shouldn’t exist in this world.”
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