How Russia is avoiding detection with its strikes from the skies above Ukraine
There’s a veneer of normality to life in Ukraine’s major cities if you ignore the air raid sirens, the booming sounds of anti-aircraft fire, the threatening buzz of drones passing overhead, and the darkened streets of neighbourhoods taking their turn as part of rolling power cuts affecting all of Ukraine.
As I say, if you ignore all of the above it’s fine, and many people do.
Kyiv appears particularly normal. Shops and restaurants are open, I’m told theatre performances are sometimes sold out, and at times you can still see families taking photos in front of the capital’s exquisite churches and cathedrals.
Late at night though, the city starts to change.
Explosions over Kyiv during a Russian drone strike. Pic: Reuters
In the past few days, mostly throughout the night, air raid apps have been lighting up with warnings to “seek shelter”, while the sound of the sirens pierces the still and freezing air of the city.
From different directions I watched the anti-aircraft batteries tracking and following Russian drones swarming over Kyiv in unprecedented numbers – the tracers from their machine guns shooting into the night skies and ominous orange glows in the distance from possible missile strikes.
The capital is being targeted as never before, so much so that the military has assigned special anti-air units particularly for the defence of Kyiv.
Attacking this city is partly a Russian tactic to wear its population down and create fear and uncertainty.
But many of its drones and missiles are targeting the country’s energy infrastructure. Russia wants to switch the lights out here and, if possible, literally freeze this people’s resistance.
A necessity, rolling blackouts are the norm now while engineers repair power stations and supply lines. Power producing capacity is already limited after years of targeting, and as the temperature drops the authorities must save wherever they can.
A supermarket in Kyiv during a power outage. Pics: AP
For families the threat of attack from the skies never goes away
I drove through the streets of Kyiv’s left-bank suburbs, darkened apartment blocks silhouetted against the city’s skyline.
The dimly lit lights inside apartments are provided by generators or car batteries hooked up to makeshift electrical circuits tacked on to walls and ceilings.
Alona emerged from the doors of her apartment building into a pitch-black car park, her torch glinting off the remains of the first snows of winter, now turned into ice.
I followed her up three flights of stairs into her apartment and was introduced to her husband, Yevhen, and their two-year-old, Oles.
Alona, with her husband Yevhen and their two-year-old Oles
For families in particular, the threat of attack from the skies never goes away. In many ways it is psychological warfare, and Alona said it’s taking its toll on her and her little boy Oles.
“The hardest part, by far, is at night when you’re putting your child to sleep in the bathroom or when you have to rush to the shelter in the middle of the night. It’s really tough because it disrupts the child’s routine,” she explained.
“He doesn’t get proper sleep, everything is upside down for him, he’s terrified and he had started to become scared of the alarms.”
‘It’s still deeply frightening to be in the open’
Alona talked me through how her family tries to work out the risk of a strike in their area when the air raid sirens go off, and then they make a decision whether or not to seek shelter accordingly.
This family is typical of thousands here – scared to stay at home and scared to go out.
“I saw a missile being shot down and let me tell you, it was terrifying,” Alona said.
“It’s a haunting experience, even though I’m standing here now, telling you about how we ‘measure’ the scale of the danger, it’s still deeply frightening to be in the open.”
Stuart Ramsay with the anti-air unit
The soldiers who do their best to track Russian drones
After travelling to see the family, I went to meet an air defence mobile group belonging to the National Guard. I followed them on to a frozen field where they set up to man their position in the dark of night and sub-zero temperatures.
They are just a handful of hundreds, even thousands, of soldiers across the country doing the same.
These men, led by their commander Serhii, do their best to track the incoming drones with radar and use large spotlights to search the skies when they believe a Russian drone is nearby.
The air defence units search for Russian drones
‘The enemy is changing tactics’
Russian tactics have changed though. As many as half are harmless decoys designed to waste time and bullets. The other half are deadly.
“The enemy is changing tactics, trying out different manoeuvres,” Serhii told me.
“They are attempting to approach in groups at low altitudes to avoid detection by radar, some targets fly high and are visible on radar, while another group flies low and slips past air defence systems.”
He showed me a Ukrainian-developed program on a tablet that tracks and monitors the movement of drones and missiles.
“Here it shows the movement of aerial targets in real-time within our zone of engagement,” he explained, pointing at a swarm of drones on his screen flying over Ukrainian territory.
People try to carry on as normal as attacks increase
Whether Russia’s main tactic is to target energy infrastructure or to sow fear, or both, nobody really knows. What they do know is that the attacks have increased.
“I cannot say the specific [reason for] that, whether it’s just the terror to make people feel unsafe and create [an] unstable situation or it’s some kind of facilities they’re trying to target, but they are operating, it’s like regular,” Pavlo Yurov of the National Guard’s “Hurricane” brigade told me.
Beneath the National Guards’ rudimentary dome of protection, people try to carry on with life as staff in restaurants and shops dress Christmas trees and hang fairy lights, but this war is grindingly depressing for everyone.
Young men fear being drafted, many hide out of sight. The news from the eastern front lines is never good, the Russians are taking more land.
Another Christmas is coming and like the last two it will likely pass without any sign of peace.
Russia’s ability to outmatch Ukraine with artillery barrages on the battlefield has significantly reduced to just 1.5 Russian rounds for every Ukrainian shell fired back, Western officials have said.
This compares with Russian forces launching at least five times as many artillery rounds as Ukraine could in the war previously – with the ratio at times much higher even than that.
The Western officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, put the levelling out down to a “wide variety of factors”.
These factors include limitations in Russia’s defence production lines, difficulties with transporting more rounds to the frontline by rail, and strikes by Ukrainian drones against strategic stockpiles of Russian and North Korean ammunition supplies inside Russia.
In addition, they said Western supplies of ammunition were helping to bolster Ukraine’s armoury.
However, vast quantities of Russian glide bombs appear to be compensating for the reduction in the country’s advantage on the artillery front, the Western officials signalled.
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Army could be ‘worn out in a year’
One official said there had been a “massive increase in Russian glide bomb use on the frontline to devastating effect”.
They said Russian forces were still gaining ground in Ukraine but at a terrible cost.
Read more:
How bad are things for Ukraine?
What could a truce deal look like?
The Western officials repeated earlier Ukrainian claims that Russia lost more than 2,000 troops, killed or injured, in a single day last month fighting against Ukraine – the highest casualty rate of the war.
Moscow has consistently dismissed Russian casualty estimates by Ukraine and its allies.
The Kremlin does not publish up-to-date figures. Ukraine is also secretive about its losses.
One of the Western officials said the figures “speak to the brutality of the frontline – very Somme-esque”.
The Battle of the Somme in France was one of the largest and bloodiest battles of the First World War.
The Western official said Russian forces suffered 2,030 casualties on 28 November – “a new war high” and the first time the rate of dead and wounded had breached the 2,000-mark.
The official said the average daily rate of Russian dead and injured in Ukraine for the whole of November had topped 1,500 for a third straight month, putting the average at 1,523 personnel.
South Korea’s president needs to be removed from power after his shock decision to impose martial law this week, the country’s ruling party leader has said.
Yoon Suk Yeol rescinded the declaration six hours later on Tuesday, but protesters and opposition MPs have called for him to be impeached, with a vote due on Saturday.
People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon had said they are against impeachment, but he suggested that may change in light of “credible evidence” the president planned to arrest political leaders.
“I believe that President Yoon Suk Yeol’s immediate suspension of office is necessary to protect the Republic of Korea and its people in light of the newly revealed facts,” he said.
He did not explicitly call for impeachment, but claimed the president had ordered the arrest of prominent politicians on the grounds they were among “anti-state forces”.
The presidential office later denied any such order had been given, according to the Yonhap news agency, while the government said it was not preparing another martial law declaration.
Fearing another attempt to declare martial law, opposition politicians were rotating through parliament’s hall to block any attempt, a Democratic Party official said.
Read more:
Who is the president who plunged South Korea into crisis?
Politicians block the entry of the National Assembly. Pic: Reuters
It’s unclear if the president was meant to arrive at the National Assembly, where protesters have gathered to call for his impeachment.
For an impeachment to pass, the bill would need support from two-thirds of the 300-member assembly.
As the president’s party has 108 politicians, eight would need to side with the opposition for the bill to succeed.
If the president is impeached, he would be suspended until a trial can be held at the Constitutional Court, while the prime minister would serve as acting leader.
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The South Koreans who fought martial law
Meanwhile, the national police is investigating the president and Kim Yong-hyun, the defence minister who resigned after allegedly encouraging martial law.
Broadcaster YTN reported government and military prosecutors are also carrying out a joint investigation, while South Korea’s defence ministry said on Friday it has suspended three commanders.
Read more:
South Korea reeling from high-risk antics
South Koreans who stood up to martial law
The country’s special warfare commander, Kwak Jong-geun, claimed he defied an order from the former defence minister to drag politicians out of parliament. Instead, he said, he ordered troops not to enter.
“I knew it would be disobedience, but I did not order that mission,” he told an opposition politician’s YouTube channel, adding he ordered against carrying live ammunition.
“I told them not to go in.”
World
Syrian rebel who seized key city of Hama in latest blow for Bashar al Assad speaks to Sky News
A Syrian rebel who took part in the capture of the city of Hama has told Sky News they will continue to push on.
In the latest blow to President Bashar al Assad, rebels in the Middle Eastern country took control of the central city on Thursday.
Speaking to Sky News, one rebel said: “Just as we liberated Aleppo and now Hama, we will proceed to Homs, and Damascus, and Deir el Zor.”
He also claimed to have received support from the people in Hama.
A Syrian rebel fighter in Hama spoke to Sky News after taking the city
Abu Omar, a resident in the city of Hama
Abu Omar, a resident in the city, said they had been waiting “45 years… for this moment”.
When asked if he was afraid of the rebel attack, he said: “On the contrary, we’ve been waiting for this moment. Our children, our family, they’ve all come back to us.
“Everyone was a million times more scared before, praise God, we’ve been liberated. No more oppression and tyranny.”
Mr Omar added: “What’s happened to us here, has happened in Idlib and Aleppo… and the regime has completely failed.”
Rebels seize Hama
The Syrian army said it had withdrawn and taken up positions outside the city to protect civilians, hours after opposition fighters said they were marching towards its centre.
The insurgents said they had entered Syria’s fourth-largest city on Thursday after days of intense fighting with government forces on its outskirts.
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Air strikes hit Hama as rebels advance
The fall of Hama follows a lightning offensive by the jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) and Turkish-backed Syrian militias called the Syrian National Army.
The surprise assault saw militants capture much of Syria’s largest city Aleppo last week and reignited the country’s civil war, where the frontlines have largely been frozen in place over the last few years.
Read more:
Who are the Syrian rebels?
Analysis: The immense significance of rebel offensive
The battle for Hama saw fierce battles inside the city, according to the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.
“If Hama falls, it means that the beginning of the regime’s fall has started,” the monitor’s chief, Rami Abdurrahman, said before the city was captured.
Hama is one of the few cities that remained under Mr Assad’s control during Syria’s civil war, which erupted in 2011 following a popular uprising.
The central city of Homs, Syria’s third-largest, is around 40km (25 miles) away and is likely to be the rebels’ next target.
It sits on a major crossroads in Syria, linking the capital Damascus to the north and the coast to the west.
Smoke billows near residential buildings in Aleppo. Pic: Reuters
Jihad Yazigi, editor of the Syria Report newsletter, said: “Assad now cannot afford to lose anything else.
“The big battle is the one coming against Homs. If Homs falls, we are talking of a potential change of regime.”
Mr Assad has been able to stay in power largely thanks to the help of his allies, Russia and Iran, but both countries – as well as the Iran-backed Hezbollah group – have been distracted by their own wars.
Russia has been preoccupied with its invasion of Ukraine since 2022 and Hezbollah in Lebanon has suffered heavy losses in its war with Israel.
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