The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
Image: How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
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4:43
Sky News has contacted MPs to find out how many are likely to vote on assisted dying.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
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2:24
Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
Image: MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
As a ban on the sale of disposable vapes comes into force on Sunday, a doctor who set up the first-ever clinic to help children stop vaping has said she has seen patients so addicted they couldn’t sleep through the night without them.
Professor Rachel Isba established the clinic at Alder Hey Hospital in Liverpool in January and has now seen several patients as young as 11 years old who are nicotine dependent.
“Some of the young people vape before they get out of bed. They are sleeping with them under their pillow,” she told Sky News.
Image: Professor Rachel Isba set up the first-ever stop vaping clinic for children
“I’m hearing stories of some children waking up at three o’clock in the morning, thinking they can’t sleep, thinking the vape will help them get back to sleep. Whereas, actually, that’s the complete opposite of how nicotine works.”
Ms Isba said most of her patients use disposable vapes, and while some young people may use the chance to give up, others will simply move to refillable devices after the ban.
“To me, vaping feels quite a lot like the beginning of smoking. I’m not surprised, but disappointed on behalf of the children that history has repeated itself.”
A government ban on single-use vapes comes into effect from Sunday, prohibiting the sale of disposable vaping products across the UK, both online and in-store, whether or not they contain nicotine.
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The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said usage among young vapers remained too high, and the ban would “put an end to their alarming rise in school playgrounds and the avalanche of rubbish flooding the nation’s streets”.
Image: Pic: PA
Circular economy minister Mary Creagh said: “For too long, single-use vapes have blighted our streets as litter and hooked our children on nicotine. That ends today. The government calls time on these nasty devices.”
At nearby Shrewsbury House Youth Club in Everton, a group of 11 and 12-year-old girls said vape addiction is already rife among their friends.
Yasmin Dumbell said: “Every day we go out, and at least someone has a vape. I know people who started in year five. It’s constantly in their hand.”
Image: Yasmin Dumbell says she knows students who started vaping in year five
Her friend Una Quayle said metal detectors were installed at her school to try to stop pupils bringing in vapes, and they are having special assemblies about the dangers of the devices.
But, she said, students “find ways to get around the scanners though – they hide them in their shorts and go to the bathroom and do it”.
Image: Una Quayle says metal detectors installed at her school won’t stop students using vapes
The girls said the ban on disposables is unlikely to make a difference for their friends who are already addicted.
According to Una, they’ll “find a way to get nicotine into their system”.
As well as trying to address the rise in young people vaping, the government hopes banning single-use vapes will reduce some of the environmental impact the devices have.
Although all vapes can be recycled, only a tiny proportion are – with around eight million a week ending up in the bin or on the floor.
Pulled apart by hand
Even those that are recycled have to be pulled apart by hand, as there is currently no way to automate the process.
Scott Butler, executive director of Material Focus, a recycling non-profit group, said vapes were “some of the most environmentally wasteful, damaging, dangerous consumer products ever sold”.
His organisation worries that with new, legal models being designed to almost exactly mimic disposables in look and feel – and being sold for a similar price – people will just keep throwing them away.
He said the behaviour “is too ingrained. The general public have been told ‘vapes are disposable’. They’ve even been marketed this way. But they never were disposable”.
A ban on disposable vapes comes into force on Sunday, with a warning issued about the “life-threatening dangers” of stockpiling.
From Sunday it will be illegal for any business to sell or supply, or have in their possession for sale, all single-use or disposable vapes.
Online nicotine retailer Haypp said 82% of the 369 customers they surveyed plan to bulk purchase the vapes before they are no longer available.
But the vapes contain lithium batteries and could catch fire if not stored correctly.
Image: A sign for customers at a Tesco store in Gerrards Cross, Buckinghamshire. Pic: PA
While more than a third (34%) of people surveyed by Haypp said they would consider buying an illegal vape after the ban, the overall number of people using disposable products has fallen from 30% to to 24% of vapers, according to Action on Smoking and Health.
Shops selling vapes are required to offer a “take back” service, where they accept vapes and vape parts that customers return for recycling – including single use products.
The Local Government Association (LGA) led the call for a ban two years ago, due to environmental and wellbeing concerns, and is warning people not to stockpile.
Cllr David Fothergill, chairman of the LGA’s Community Wellbeing Board, said: “Failing to store disposable vapes correctly could cost lives, given the significant fire risk they pose.”
How disposable vapes catch fire – or even explode
Figures obtained by the Electric Tobacconist, via Freedom of Information requests, found an increase in vape related fires – from 89 in 2020 to 399 in 2024.
Many disposable vapes use cheap, or even unregulated lithium-ion batteries, to keep the costs down. These batteries often lack proper safety features, like thermal cut offs, making them more prone to overheating and catching fire.
If the battery is damaged, or overheats in any way it can cause thermal runaway – a chain reaction where the battery’s temperature rapidly increases, causing it to overheat uncontrollably.
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0:49
2019: Vape product starts fire on US passenger plane
Then, once these fires start start, they are very hard to stop. Water alone can make things worse if the battery is still generating heat, so they require specialised fire suppressants to put them out.
Batteries can then re-ignite hours, or even days later, making them a persistent hazard.
Disposable vapes are a hazard for waste and litter collection and cause fires in bin lorries, even though customers have been warned not to throw them away in household waste. They are almost impossible to recycle because they are designed as one unit so the batteries cannot be separated from plastic.
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Some 8.2 million units were thrown away, or recycled incorrectly, every week prior to the ban.
The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said usage among young vapers remained too high, and the ban would “put an end to their alarming rise in school playgrounds and the avalanche of rubbish flooding the nation’s streets”.
Circular economy minister Mary Creagh said: “For too long, single-use vapes have blighted our streets as litter and hooked our children on nicotine. That ends today.
“The government calls time on these nasty devices.”
‘One in five say they will return to cigarettes’
Separate research by life insurance experts at Confused.com found two in five people (37%) planned to stop vaping when the ban starts.
Nearly one in five (19%) said they would return to cigarettes once the ban comes into force.
The research was based on the answers of 500 UK adults who currently vape.
Vaping and smoking also appears to be on the rise, with Confused.com saying there was a 44% increase in the number of people declaring they smoke or vape on their life insurance policy since 2019.
Russell Brand has pleaded not guilty to rape and sexual assault charges as he appeared in court in London.
The British comedian and actor, from Hambleden in Buckinghamshire, was charged by post last month with one count each of rape, indecent assault and oral rape as well as two counts of sexual assault.
The charges relate to alleged incidents involving four separate women between 1999 and 2005.
The 49-year-old, who has been living in the US, was flanked by two officers as he pleaded not guilty to all the charges at Southwark Crown Court today.
Image: Russell Brand appears at Southwark Crown Court. Pic: Reuters
Brand stood completely still and looked straight ahead as he delivered his pleas.
The comedian, who has consistently denied having non-consensual sex since allegations were first aired two years ago, is due to stand trial in June 2026.