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The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

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It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
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How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

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Sky News has contacted MPs to find out how many are likely to vote on assisted dying.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
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MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

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UK weather: Weather warnings across the country with temperatures as low as -16C expected

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UK weather: Weather warnings across the country with temperatures as low as -16C expected

Warnings of widespread disruption caused by freezing weather have been issued, with temperatures expected to plummet to as low as -16C in some areas.

Snow, ice and fog warnings have been issued, following on from severe weather on Wednesday, with the South West and south of England particularly affected by heavy snow.

All of the warnings are yellow, meaning there is a danger of injury from slips and falls and some disruption to travel expected.

Devon and Cornwall saw roads closed and motorists stationary for “long periods of time”, a joint statement from Devon and Cornwall Police and Devon County Council Highways said.

Snow ploughs became stuck in queues of traffic caused by “minor incidents”, the statement added.

Ploughs have been fitted to gritters which will work into Thursday morning to clear routes in the area, police and highways officials said.

Temperatures are expected to fall as low as -16C on Thursday night both in the northeast of England and Scotland, the Met Office has said.

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Met office weather warnings for Thursday Pic: Met Office
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Met office weather warnings for Thursday Pic: Met Office

Huge waves smash against the sea front at Whitley Bay in North Tyneside Pic: PA
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Huge waves smash against the sea front at Whitley Bay in North Tyneside Pic: PA

A yellow warning for snow and ice is in place for northern Scotland until midnight on Thursday and another snow and ice warning is in force for Northern Ireland until 11am on Thursday as sleet and snow showers are set to continue.

Meanwhile, a yellow fog warning has been issued for Northern Ireland until 9am on Thursday.

A further yellow warning for snow and ice affecting Cornwall, much of Wales and parts of northwest England has been issued until 11am on Thursday.

And a yellow ice warning has been issued for parts of southern England and south-east Wales until 10.30am on Thursday.

Travel disruption to road and rail services are likely on Thursday in the warning areas, as well as the potential for accidents in icy places, the forecaster said.

As icy conditions persist, motorists are being urged to stick to major roads that are most likely to have been gritted.

Car insurer RAC said it has seen the highest levels of demand for rescues in a three-day period since December 2022.

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Obesity rates may start falling this year due to weight loss jabs, seller says

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Obesity rates may start falling this year due to weight loss jabs, seller says

The UK may have reached peak obesity and rates could start falling rapidly later this year, Sky News has been told.

Data collected by one of the biggest online sellers of weight loss jabs suggests that so many people are now taking effective medication that the inexorable rise in obesity could start to reverse.

According to Simple Online Pharmacy, which has access to wholesale figures, 500,000 people in the UK are currently taking either Mounjaro or Wegovy – and they can expect to lose 15% to 20% of their weight over a matter of months.

Rebecca Moore, the company’s chief operating officer, said: “Our projections are that around a million people will reverse their obesity in a year.

“We should be at the point now, we believe, where we’re starting to see rates decline.

“We would not be surprised if by the end of this year we’ve seen a really significant decline in obesity.”

Rebecca Moore, chief operating officer of Simple Online Pharmacy
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Rebecca Moore, chief operating officer of Simple Online Pharmacy

The company has supplied the drugs to 200,000 people, who have collectively lost 600 tonnes of their weight.

Demand for medication is growing by 10% to 40% month-on-month, and the company has had to build a walk-in fridge to store enough medication to supply 400 patients an hour.

“The narrative has really shifted in the last few months,” said Ms Moore.

“People are recognising that obesity is a lifelong chronic condition. They’re recognising that this medication is a once-in-a-generation revolutionary technology.

“People are much more open to it and I expect that next year there will be another huge surge in growth.”

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The weight-loss drug that’s ‘too good’

Latest NHS figures show 27% of adults in England are obese, up from 15% in 1993.

Rates have started to plateau in the last couple of years as public health measures such as the sugar tax take effect.

But there are indications that obesity jabs have already begun to reverse obesity in the US and the same is likely to happen in the UK.

Around 95% of all patients using the medication are buying it privately, at a cost of around £150 a month.

Access on the NHS is poor, with research by Sky News showing just 800 patients had been prescribed Wegovy in specialist clinics four months after the rollout started in December 2023. That’s just 6% of the expected number.

And last month the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) bowed to demands from the NHS to restrict access to Mounjaro to just 200,000 of 3.4 million eligible patients over the first three years of the rollout.

Read more:
King Kong’ of weight loss jabs just too effective for NHS
Thousands denied jab due to slow NHS rollout

Wegovy injections

Sarah Le Brocq, founder of All About Obesity, sits as a patient representative on the NICE committee.

She said it was “hugely frustrating” that so many patients in need are being denied treatment.

“It’s not the NHS’s fault that they can’t fund these drugs,” she said.

“They need to have that money coming through [from government] because they can’t take it from cancer and put it into obesity.

“We are going to have tiered access. The wealthy can be healthy, but people who really need treatment can’t have it.”

Angela Chesworth had to do a ‘clinical trial’ of treatment on herself to prove to the NHS that the drugs could stop agonising abdominal pains that she suffered several times a week.

Angela Chesworth and her husband Paul
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Angela Chesworth and her husband Paul

Her consultant had agreed that her extra pounds were pulling on scar tissue from previous stomach surgery, but he was powerless to prescribe the treatment.

But since the summer, when she started weekly injections of Mounjaro, she has only had a couple of abdominal cramps and the NHS has now agreed to fund treatment.

“When you know there’s something out there that can help you, but you can’t have that help because of money or somebody who makes the rules, you feel worthless,” she told Sky News.

“Come and live in my shoes and see how I am and see how it affects me and then tell me I’m not worth the money.

“You want me to be part of society, you want me to do a job, you want me to expand the economy?

“I needed help, so it was very frustrating to be told no. And especially by the medical professionals.”

Her husband, Paul, is still having to buy his supply privately, despite being on the cusp of type 2 diabetes. After three months of treatment, he has lost two stone and is now healthy.

“I want to be healthy as long as I possibly can,” he said.

“For the last 15 years of his life my dad did not have good health or a good quality of life. He wasn’t able to get up in the morning quickly and ended up on a mobility scooter because he couldn’t walk far.

“All those things I want to try and avoid.”

The Department of Health said new drugs recommended by NICE need to be funded from existing NHS budgets. A spokesperson added: “We are also acting to tackle [obesity’s] causes, shifting our focus from treatment to prevention as part of our 10 Year Health Plan.”

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Food prices will rise due to budget tax hikes, retail body warns

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Food prices will rise due to budget tax hikes, retail body warns

Grocery shoppers are being warned of more hikes to food costs in the months ahead due to retailers passing on the cost of budget tax rises.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) warned that food prices will increase by an average of 4.2% in the latter half of the year – piling more pressure on households at a time when consumers are already facing leaps in unavoidable costs including water, council tax and energy bills.

It blamed the impact of budget measures announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in October, which businesses have widely denounced as an attack on investment, jobs, and pay.

The retail body spoke up as many top retail brands reported on their Christmas progress ahead of April’s looming surge in costs.

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Tesco warned of a £250m annual impact from higher employer National Insurance contributions alone from the next financial year while maintaining its annual profit forecast for 2024/25.

It cheered winning considerable market share over the festive season, leaving the UK’s biggest retailer in its best position since 2016.

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M&S reported robust growth in food sales, by 8.9% on a comparable basis, while growth in clothing and home and beauty was up by almost 2%.

Industry data released earlier this week already revealed Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Lidl and M&S were the big sales winners over Christmas, as far as groceries were concerned. Asda and the Co-op were seen as the main strugglers.

Ocado, which has a retail partnership with M&S, saw the largest growth in the online sphere.

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Warning of price hikes ahead

Much of the focus, however, is on the future given the volume of complaints within the sector – one of the country’s biggest employers – about the budget measures.

The key message since the fiscal event has been that shoppers will pay a price.

The industry sales data, revealed by Kantar Worldpanel on Tuesday, showed the annual rate of grocery price inflation at 3.7% in the four-week December period, its highest level since March, and a jump on the 2.6% reported for the 12 months to November.

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HMV owner slams budget ‘burden’

Read more: Growing threat to finances from rising bills

The BRC’s chief executive, Helen Dickinson, said on Thursday: “As retailers battle the £7bn of increased costs in 2025 from the budget, including higher employer NI (National Insurance), National Living Wage, and new packaging levies, there is little hope of prices going anywhere but up.

“Modelling by the BRC and retail chief financial officers suggest food prices will rise by an average of 4.2% in the latter half of the year, while non-food will return firmly to inflation.

“Government can still take steps to mitigate these price pressures, and it must ensure that its proposed reforms to business rates do not result in any stores paying more in rates than they do already.”

Despite the looming pressure ahead on supermarket margins from the budget, it is clear that grocery chains had a robust Christmas season.

Tesco boss Ken Murphy said: “We delivered our biggest-ever Christmas, with continued market share growth and switching gains.

“Our strong performance reflects the investments we have made, positioning Tesco as the UK’s cheapest full-line grocer for over two years, improving quality across all our ranges, with more than half of this year’s Christmas range new or improved, and providing the best experience for our customers in-store and online.”

His counterpart at M&S, Stuart Machin, said: “The external environment remains challenging, with cost and economic headwinds to navigate, but there is much within our control.

“At M&S, we stay close to our customers and their needs, and with that in mind our investment in trusted value, along with great quality, style and innovation remains our priority.”

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