Connect with us

Published

on

The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

Politics latest: Starmer blames Tories for ‘open borders’

It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Image:
How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Sky News has contacted MPs to find out how many are likely to vote on assisted dying.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
Image:
MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
Image:
Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

Continue Reading

UK

Why UK’s undersea cables are vulnerable – and Putin has ‘pretty good map’ of where they are

Published

on

By

Why UK's undersea cables are vulnerable - and Putin has 'pretty good map' of where they are

Russia has a “pretty good map” of Britain’s crucial network of undersea cables, experts have warned – potentially presenting Vladimir Putin with a “vulnerable soft underbelly” to attack.

While separated by 21 miles of water, a web of cables and pipelines nonetheless connects the UK and Europe.

These lines carry critical civilian and military communications, electricity and gas – things that underpin the fabric of our society.

But it’s hard to constantly keep an eye on hundreds of miles of subsea cables, leaving them vulnerable to sabotage.

After damage to undersea cables in the Red Sea caused internet disruption in Asia and the Middle East, Sky News looks at what subsea cables are and what damage to one or more of them – accidental or otherwise – could mean for the UK.

HMS Somerset shadowing Russian ship Yantar. Pic: Royal Navy/PA
Image:
HMS Somerset shadowing Russian ship Yantar. Pic: Royal Navy/PA

A Russian ‘spy’ ship in English waters

When the Yantar research vessel sailed through the English Channel earlier this year, she was followed closely by HMS Somerset.

At first glance, it might be odd for a Royal Navy warship to be asked to shadow a civilian boat. But Britain doesn’t believe the Yantar is a civilian vessel, it believes it is used for Russian surveillance.

Defence Secretary John Healey spelled it out in parliament, saying: “Let me be clear, this is a Russian spy ship used for gathering intelligence and mapping the UK’s critical underwater infrastructure.”

The Yantar complied with international rules of navigation, Mr Healey said. But this was not the first time it had been detected near Britain’s subsea installations, he added.

Fibre optic cables on the ocean floor. File pic: iStock
Image:
Fibre optic cables on the ocean floor. File pic: iStock

What are undersea cables?

There are around 60 sets of undersea cables branching out from the UK, Dr Sidharth Kaushal, an expert in maritime technology, told Sky News.

They are fairly wide, he says, and usually encased in a metal sheath. Closer to shore, they are often buried under concrete to further protect them. There are also pipelines which carry gas from the continent.

Some cables are in relatively shallow waters and are relatively easy to repair – they are often damaged unintentionally by commercial activity – while others are in deeper waters and require specialist equipment to fix if a problem arises.

A recent report from the IISS thinktank (the International Institute for Strategic Studies) highlighted the extent to which the European and global economies relies on them.

“Cables transmit around 95% of global data flows and underpin an estimated $10trn in financial transactions every day,” it said.

Around 60 subsea cables connect the UK with the world beyond
Image:
Around 60 subsea cables connect the UK with the world beyond

Making a map?

Experts believe Russia has spent recent years covertly mapping undersea cables in the West – some of which are military and whose locations are not public knowledge.

“We have seen an uptick in activity of Russian surveillance,” said RUSI thinktank expert Dr Kaushal.

Surface vessels have been gathering intelligence, but there have also been reports of Russian uncrewed submersibles being operated near undersea cables, he added.

“Given that this has been a persistent activity in an area on which they have placed some importance for quite some time… one would expect they have a pretty good map.”

Read more:
Russia’s ‘hybrid attacks’ against NATO ‘look like war’
Drones and salami: How Putin is testing the West

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘Putin wants to trick Trump’

What does sabotage look like?

Severing undersea cables can have a detrimental impact on the countries they serve.

“There’s quite a bit of redundancy in the cable networks running across the Atlantic and indeed the cable networks that service the UK,” Dr Kaushal said. “It certainly would not be very easy to sabotage cables… in a way that would be impactful.”

While it might be easy for a hostile state to deny cutting one or two cables, a systematic effort to affect the UK by cutting enough to have an impact would be harder to disavow, he added.

This is particularly the case with cables that are in deeper water, reachable only by a handful of states.

Recent disruption to undersea cables has been blamed on “anchor-dragging by Russia’s shadow fleet”, the IISS said in its report.

In December, Finland seized the Eagle S oil ship which had been carrying Russian oil and was suspected of damaging the Estlink 2 undersea power cable in the Baltic Sea by dragging its anchor across it.

Russia has previously denied damaging undersea infrastructure.

RFA Proteus monitoring Russian ship Yantar in November 2024.  Pic: Royal Navy/PA
Image:
RFA Proteus monitoring Russian ship Yantar in November 2024. Pic: Royal Navy/PA

Does the UK need to prepare?

Faced with an increasingly fraught international picture as the war in Ukraine grinds on, the UK parliament’s National Security Strategy committee launched an inquiry into undersea cables earlier this year.

It is examining how well the UK is able to defend its undersea infrastructure – and how resilient the nation would be in the event of a major, protracted disruption to our internet connection.

“Our internet cable network looks like an increasingly vulnerable soft underbelly,” chairman Matt Western MP said as the inquiry began.

“There is no need for panic – we have a good degree of resilience, and awareness of the challenge is growing. But we must be clear-eyed about the risks and consequences: an attack of this nature would hit us hard.”

Dr Kaushal argued that while there is a degree of redundancy in the undersea cables that serve the UK, the pipelines that bring gas to British homes are perhaps more vulnerable.

“I think in some ways the pipeline network is far more fragile because there we are more reliant on a handful of critical pipelines,” he said.

Continue Reading

UK

Trump will be treated to full pomp and pageantry – and no one does it better than Britain

Published

on

By

Trump will be treated to full pomp and pageantry - and no one does it better than Britain

While the nature of Donald Trump’s second state visit is indeed unusual, from the moment Sir Keir Starmer delivered the gold-edged invitation it began a process steeped in tradition.

State visits are usually reserved to one per head of state, with Trump last hosted by Queen Elizabeth II in 2019.

Typically, second-term US presidents are offered a shorter visit, perhaps tea or lunch with the monarch at Windsor Castle. But the red carpet is literally being rolled out once again, with Trump receiving a second full state visit, with all the pomp and pageantry it entails.

An indication was given early on in Trump’s second term that he’d be receptive to a second state visit, and so – on perhaps the advice of the new prime minister – the King issued a second invitation.

The greatest form of tradition is one that always evolves, and so this may now set a new precedent for presidents who are voted out but then return to serve a second term.

Trump and his wife Melania with the then Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall in 2019. Pic: PA
Image:
Trump and his wife Melania with the then Prince of Wales and Duchess of Cornwall in 2019. Pic: PA

Any nation can hold a state visit, but what is unique about Britain remains our internationally respected pageantry.

Even down to the very invitation – there is a very precise format for inviting someone on a state visit.

An invite must be issued, established by international law. Written on a special gold-edged paper, embossed with a golden coat of arms that is issued, it forms part of a historic archive.

Breaches of protocol

Much has been made in the past about moments where protocol was breached – Michelle Obama famously put her arm around Queen Elizabeth in 2011, but, in all honesty, I doubt very much the Queen was upset by this.

In a breach of protocol during a visit to the UK in 2009, Michelle Obama touched the late Queen. Pic: AP
Image:
In a breach of protocol during a visit to the UK in 2009, Michelle Obama touched the late Queen. Pic: AP

The fuss was not made by the late monarch, who accepted that what mattered was that Americans should be made very welcome on behalf of the UK.

And then criticism emerged against Trump, who appeared to make the Queen change places when the Guard of Honour was to be inspected.

But, in truth, it was Elizabeth II who had to correct herself because, in her long life as sovereign, she never escorted a visiting president.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

When Trump met the Queen – and protocol was breached

The escort should stand further from the troops and her self-correction was misinterpreted as his error.

Trump’s visit this time will likely generate just as many headlines, but I don’t think there will be critical moments where a breach occurs.

What will happen today?

The Prince and Princess of Wales will greet the president and his wife in the grounds of the Windsor estate in the morning, before accompanying them to meet the King and Queen for an open-air greeting.

Mr and Mrs Trump, the King, Camilla, William, and Kate will then take part in a carriage procession through the estate to the castle, with the carriage ride joined by the Household Cavalry Mounted Regiment, which will provide a Sovereign’s Escort, as well as members of the armed forces and three military bands.

A ceremonial welcome with a guard of honour will be staged in the quadrangle of the castle, as is customary, followed by lunch with the royal family and a visit to see a Royal Collection exhibition within the castle.

The president and his wife will then visit St George’s Chapel privately on Wednesday afternoon to lay a wreath on the tomb of Queen Elizabeth II, whom they both met on their first state visit.

They will then be treated to a flypast by the Red Arrows alongside UK and US F-35 military jets on the east lawn at Windsor Castle, as well as a special Beating Retreat military ceremony.

They will then be treated to a flypast by the Red Arrows alongside UK and US F-35 military jets on the east lawn at Windsor Castle, as well as a special Beating Retreat military ceremony.

The traditional grand state banquet is set to follow in the castle’s St George’s Hall in the evening, with both Mr Trump and the King to give speeches as the event gets underway.

What it means for Trump – and is it worth it?

Trump’s mother would cut out and keep in a scrapbook containing pictures of the young Princess Elizabeth and her sister, Margaret Rose. It was an era before endless celebrity news, a time when public life revolved around the royals, the war, and survival.

And the president loved his mother, like many men do, so these things mean an enormous amount to him.

Read more:
No state visit has had a backdrop quite like this

Trump and Charles inspect the Guard of Honour. Pic: PA
Image:
Trump and Charles inspect the Guard of Honour. Pic: PA

When the horses go back to the stables and the carriages are put away, the impact of this visit will remain fresh in the mind of a president who may feel his nation – and maybe even he himself – have been affirmed by their ally.

Quite apart from the politics, although much will be said and written on that, there is one great hope for any state visit: that the country so many (myself included) have fought for can be safer and more successful as a result of the pomp and pageantry on display.

Continue Reading

UK

No 10 insists migrant returns deal isn’t a ‘shambles’ after court blocks man’s removal

Published

on

By

No 10 insists migrant returns deal isn't a 'shambles' after court blocks man's removal

Downing Street has insisted its migrant returns scheme with France is not a “shambles” after the High Court blocked a man’s deportation.

Having seen the previous Conservative government’s Rwanda scheme run into trouble with the courts, the Labour administration’s alternative suffered its own setback on Tuesday.

An Eritrean man, who cannot be named for legal reasons, was due to be on a flight to France this morning.

He brought a legal claim against the Home Office, with lawyers acting on his behalf saying the case “concerns a trafficking claim”.

They also said he had a gunshot wound to his leg, and would be left destitute if he was deported.

The Home Office said it was reasonable to expect him to have claimed asylum in France before he reached the UK in August, but the ruling went in his favour.

Mr Justice Sheldon granted the man a “brief period of interim relief”.

While the judge said there did not appear to be a “real risk” he would face destitution in France, the trafficking claim required further interrogation.

He said the case should return to court “as soon as is reasonably practical in light of the further representations the claimant […] will make on his trafficking decision”.

A Number 10 spokesperson downplayed the development, insisting removals under the deal with France will start “imminently” and ministers are not powerless in the face of the courts.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘One in, one out’ deal: What do we know?

‘We told you so’

The pilot scheme was announced to much fanfare in July, after Emmanuel Macron made a state visit to the UK.

Sir Keir Starmer had hoped the agreement – which would see the UK send asylum seekers who have crossed the Channel back over to France in exchange for migrants with links to Britain – would prove more resilient to court challenges than the Tories’ Rwanda plan.

He wants the number of migrants being returned to France to gradually increase over the course of the scheme, to deter them from coming in small boats.

The pilot came into force last month and is in place until June 2026.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch was quick to say “we told you so” following Tuesday’s court decision, while Reform UK’s Nigel Farage criticised the government’s plan.

Mr Farage – who has said he would deport anyone who arrives in Britain illegally – said: “Even if the policy worked, one in, one out, and with another one in, still means plus one for everyone that crosses the Channel.”

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Migrant deal with France has ‘started’

The small boats crisis represents one of the biggest challenges for the new home secretary, Shabana Mahmood, following her promotion in Sir Keir’s recent reshuffle.

Speaking to Sky News’ Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge, Labour peer Maurice Glasman backed her to deliver.

Describing the former justice secretary as “very tough”, he said: “She’s completely for real. I’ve known her for over 10 years – she really wants to see law and order restored.”

Continue Reading

Trending