The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
Image: How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
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4:43
Sky News has contacted MPs to find out how many are likely to vote on assisted dying.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
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2:24
Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
Image: MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
Southend Airport has been closed until further notice after a small plane crashed – as video footage emerged showing the aftermath of a huge fireball.
Images posted online showed large flames and a cloud of black smoke following the incident on Sunday afternoon.
Essex Police said it responded to “reports of a collision involving one 12-metre plane” shortly before 4pm.
“We are working with all emergency services at the scene now and that work will be ongoing for several hours,” the statement said.
“We would please ask the public to avoid this area where possible while this work continues.”
Southend Airport said it would be “closed until further notice” due to the “serious incident”.
“We ask that any passengers due to travel (on Monday) via London Southend Airport contact their airline for information and advice,” it added.
Image: A huge fireball near the airport. Pic: Ben G
Zeusch Aviation, based at Lelystad Airport in the Netherlands, confirmed its SUZ1 flight had been “involved in an accident” at the airport and its thoughts were with “everyone who has been affected”.
It has been reported that the plane involved in the incident is a Beech B200 Super King Air.
According to flight-tracking service Flightradar, it took off at 3.48pm and was bound for Lelystad, a city in the Netherlands.
Pilots ‘waved’ to families watching planes
One man, who was at the airport with his wife and children, told Sky News the plane crashed within seconds of taking off.
John Johnson said the pilots “waved” at his family as they taxied the aircraft.
“We all waved [back] at them,” he continued. “They carried on taxiing to their take-off point and turned around.
“Then they throttled up the engines and passed by us. The aircraft took off and within a few seconds it had a steep bank angle to its left.”
The aircraft then “almost seemed to invert and unfortunately crashed,” he said. “There was a large fireball.”
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0:47
Smoke seen after small plane crashes
‘Airport was in lockdown’
Wren Stranix, 16, from Woodbridge in Suffolk, was in another aircraft waiting to take off for Newquay, Cornwall, with her family and boyfriend when the plane came down.
They watched from their aircraft as the emergency services arrived and were not able to leave their seats.
“The flight attendant didn’t know what was going on,” she told Sky News. “They said the plane had exploded and they didn’t know if it was safe or not. The airport was in lockdown.”
Image: Plumes of black smoke. Pic: UKNIP
They were eventually allowed back in the terminal to wait before all flights were cancelled.
Southend Airport said the incident involved “a general aviation aircraft”.
Image: A photo of the plane at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport in September 2024. Pic: Pascal Weste
After the incident, EasyJet – one of just a few airlines that uses the airport – said all of its remaining flights to and from Southend had been “diverted to alternative airports or are no longer able to operate”.
The airline said it has contacted customers who were due to travel on Sunday. Anyone due to fly on Monday should check online for up-to-date information, it added.
Essex County Fire and Rescue Service said four crews, along with off-road vehicles, have attended the scene.
The East of England Ambulance Service said four ambulances, four hazardous area response team vehicles and an air ambulance had been sent to the incident.
Image: Fire engines at the airport
David Burton-Sampson, the MP for Southend West and Leigh, asked people to keep away from the area and “allow the emergency services to do their work” in a post on social media.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she was “monitoring the situation closely and receiving regular updates”.
Essex Police have set up a dedicated public portal and phone line where people can contact them about the crash at https://esxpol.uk/LIbaz and on 0800 0961011.
Chief Superintendent Morgan Cronin said: “In these very early stages it is vital we gather the information we need, and continue supporting the people of Essex.”
He added: “We are working closely with all at the scene, as well as the Air Accident Investigation Branch, to establish what has happened today and why.”
An investigation into Gregg Wallace’s “inappropriate behaviour” on MasterChef has found that more than half of the allegations against him have been substantiated, including one of “unwanted physical contact”.
MasterChef’s production company Banijay UK shared a summary of its report into historical allegations of misconduct against the 60-year-old presenter, carried out by independent law firm Lewis Silkin over seven months.
The report also said the number of sustained allegations made Wallace’s return to MasterChef “untenable”.
The investigation heard evidence from 78 witnesses, including 41 complainants.
There were 83 allegations against Wallace, and 45 of them were substantiated. All were related to MasterChef.
While the majority of the substantiated allegations related to inappropriate sexual language and humour, a smaller number of allegations of other inappropriate language and being in a state of undress were also substantiated.
One allegation of unwanted physical contact was substantiated.
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Nearly all the allegations against Wallace were related to behaviour which is said to have occurred between 2005 and 2018, with just one substantiated allegation taking place post-2018.
Additionally, the report summary found that there were also 10 standalone allegations about other people between 2012 and 2018/2019, two of which were substantiated. Those people were not named in the summary.
The investigation found that complaints had previously been raised with the production company between 2005 and 2024.
Image: Gregg Wallace on MasterChef. Pic: BBC/ Shine TV 2024
While the report flagged inadequate reporting procedures prior to 2016, when Endemol merged with Shine ahead of Banijay acquiring Endemol Shine in 2020, it said there were significant improvements to HR processes and training after 2016.
While the investigation said some formal action was taken by the BBC in 2017, it also noted the corporation held no information regarding concerns raised over Wallace centrally, resulting in issues being addressed as a first offence.
Sky News has tried to contact Gregg Wallace for contact today.
It was expected that the three-day state visit would take place in September after Mr Trump let slip earlier in April that he believed that was when his second “fest” was being planned for.
Windsor was also anticipated to be the location after the US president told reporters in the Oval Office that the letter from the King said Windsor would be the setting. Refurbishment works at Buckingham Palace also meant that Windsor was used last week for French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit.
This will be Mr Trump’s second state visit to the UK, an unprecedented gesture towards an American leader, having previously been invited to Buckingham Palace in 2019.
Image: Donald Trump and Melania Trump posing with Charles and Camilla in 2019. Pic: Reuters
He has also been to Windsor Castle before, in 2018, but despite the considerable military pageantry of the day, and some confusion around inspecting the guard, it was simply for tea with Queen Elizabeth II.
Further details of what will happen during the three-day visit in September will be announced in due course.
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On Friday, Sky News revealed it is now unlikely that the US president will address parliament, usually an honour given to visiting heads of state as part of their visit. Some MPs had raised significant concerns about him being given the privilege.
But the House of Commons will not be sitting at the time of Mr Trump’s visit as it will rise for party conference season on the 16 September, meaning the president will not be able to speak in parliament as President Macron did during his state visit this week. However, the House of Lords will be sitting.
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After reading it, Mr Trump said it was a “great, great honour”, adding “and that says at Windsor – that’s really something”.
Image: In February, Sir Keir Starmer revealed a letter from the King inviting Donald Trump to the UK. Pic: Reuters
In the letter, the King suggested they might meet at Balmoral or Dumfries House in Scotland first before the much grander state visit. However, it is understood that, although all options were explored, complexities in both the King and Mr Trump’s diaries meant it wasn’t possible.
This week, it emerged that Police Scotland are planning for a summer visit from the US president, which is likely to see him visit one or both of his golf clubs in Aberdeenshire and Ayrshire, and require substantial policing resources and probably units to be called in from elsewhere in the UK.
Precedent for second-term US presidents, who have already made a state visit, is usually tea or lunch with the monarch at Windsor Castle, as was the case for George W Bush and Barack Obama.