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The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

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It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
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How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

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Sky News has contacted MPs to find out how many are likely to vote on assisted dying.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
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MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

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Abuse ‘ignored’ at Medomsley Detention Centre where UK’s ‘most prolific’ sex offender attacked young men, report finds

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Abuse 'ignored' at Medomsley Detention Centre where UK's 'most prolific' sex offender attacked young men, report finds

Decades of abuse of thousands of young men by staff at a detention centre in County Durham was “ignored and dismissed” by the prison service, the police and the Home Office, an investigation has found.

Warning: Readers may find the content below distressing

The Prisons and Probation Ombudsman (PPO) has issued a report into how “horrific” physical and sexual violence was allowed to continue against 17 to 21-year-olds at the Medomsley Detention Centre in Consett.

It named officer Neville Husband who was thought to have groomed and attacked hundreds of trainees in Medomsley’s kitchens. He was described by the ombudsman “as possibly the most prolific sex offender in British history”.

Neville Husband in December 1983. File pic: NCJ Archive/Mirrorpix/Getty
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Neville Husband in December 1983. File pic: NCJ Archive/Mirrorpix/Getty

The abuse at Medomsley continued “unchallenged” for the entire 26 years of its operation, from 1961 to 1987, according to the report from ombudsman Adrian Usher. There was, he said, “extreme violence and acts of a sadistic nature”.

The centre held inmates who were all first-time offenders and who had been convicted of crimes ranging from shoplifting and non-payment of fines to robbery.

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A sign for the centre in July 1998. Pic: Elliot Michael/Mirrorpix/Getty
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A sign for the centre in July 1998. Pic: Elliot Michael/Mirrorpix/Getty

Several members of staff were convicted after investigations by Durham Constabulary in 2001 and 2023 found widespread abuse of more than 2,000 detainees at Medomsley.

But the ombudsman investigated what authorities knew about the abuse, whether there were opportunities to have intervened at the time and what was done about any opportunities.

Husband ‘used power with devastating effect’

Husband was finally convicted of sexual assault and was jailed in 2003 and again in 2005. He died in 2010.

Mr Usher said: “The illegitimate power imbalance that existed between Husband and the trainees and other staff further flourished within a culture of collusion and silence from other employees.

“Husband used this power with devastating effect.”

Then home secretary Leon Brittan visiting in 1985. Pic: Geoff Hewitt/Mirrorpix/Getty
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Then home secretary Leon Brittan visiting in 1985. Pic: Geoff Hewitt/Mirrorpix/Getty

Trainees ‘physically abused’

Trainees were physically abused from the moment they arrived, when they bathed, were strip searched, during physical education, while working and even during medical examinations, the PPO found.

Victims were targeted for being perceived as gay or weak. Inmates who failed to address staff as “sir” would be punched.

Witnesses said baths were either scalding hot or freezing cold. A number of them said if they were ill, painkillers could be taped to their forehead and they would be told to run around until the pill had dissolved.

Ombudsman Adrian Usher (left) and senior investigator Richard Tucker
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Ombudsman Adrian Usher (left) and senior investigator Richard Tucker

Medomsley leaders at every level ‘failed’

Mr Usher said: “Leaders at every level at Medomsley, including the warden, failed in their duty to protect the best interests of those under their charge. Either staff in leadership roles were aware of the abuse, in which case they were complicit, or they lacked dedication and professional curiosity to such an extent as to not be professionally competent.”

“The knowledge of abuse by the Prison Service, the police, the Home Office and other organisations of authority was ignored and dismissed. The authorities failed in their duty to keep detainees safe,” Mr Usher added.

The report highlights a complaint, written in 1965, of an officer striking an inmate with “a distinct blow”. The handwritten response below dismisses it as “playfulness”.

Staff ‘took law into own hands’

A letter sent to all detention centre wardens in 1967 refers to the “increasing number of complaints of assault” and warns of staff “taking the law into their own hands” with discipline going “beyond the legitimate”.

The police officers who delivered 17-year-old Eric Sampson to Medomsley in December 1977 told him he was going to “get the hell kicked out” of him there, he said.

Eric Sampson called the centre 'hell on earth'
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Eric Sampson called the centre ‘hell on earth’

Victim – ‘I could have been killed’

“The violence I had done to me was terrible. I could have been killed in there,” said Mr Sampson. “Every day and night was hell on earth for the full nine weeks.

“With all the abuse, and obviously the sexual abuse, it totally ruined my life. It should never have happened in the first place, or it should have been stopped.”

The inquiry spoke to 79 victims and witnesses.

Over 2,000 former inmates came forward to give their testimony to Operation Seabrook, a police investigation that led to five retired officers being convicted of abuse in 2019.

Lawyer David Greenwood, who represents victims of the abuse at Medomsley, said he has been contacted by men who were held at 20 other detention centres around the country, alleging similar violence.

“I think it was a systematic thing. These prison officers were cogs in a big machine which was designed, culturally or by training, to treat boys really badly,” he said.

Lawyer David Greenwood suggested abuse may have been widespread
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Lawyer David Greenwood suggested abuse may have been widespread

Mr Greenwood is calling for a wider inquiry into abuse at all of the detention centres.

What have the police said?

The ombudsman’s report found police officers from both Durham and Cleveland police were “aware that physical and sexual abuse was taking place at Medomsley from as early as 1965 due to complaints of abuse made at police stations”.

It said officers who ignored, dismissed or took no action “failed in their duty to report and investigate crime”.

In response to the report, Durham Constabulary has publicly apologised for “the force’s historic failure to investigate decades of horrifying abuse”.

Chief Constable Rachel Bacon said: “This report makes for extremely difficult reading. It exposes shameful failings by police at that time: both to recognise that the physical violence meted out by staff at Medomsley amounted to abuse or to adequately investigate allegations by those victims who did have the bravery to come forward and report what happened to them.

“I am satisfied that policing standards at Durham Constabulary are worlds apart from those which sadly appear to have existed at that time.”

Cleveland Police said in a statement: “All victims of any form of abuse or exploitation should always be listened to and action taken to prevent any further forms of abuse, and we acknowledge this was not the case many decades ago.

“We know cases like this have a lasting impact upon victims and Cleveland Police has, and continues to, improve its service and support to all those affected by abuse, especially those in cases of children and young people.”

The ombudsman’s report pointed out that the victims have never received a public apology and the complaints process for children in custody remains the same today as it was at the time of the abuse.

Mr Usher said: “I leave it to all of the bodies in this investigation to examine their organisational consciences and determine if there is any action taken today, despite such an extended passage of time, that would diminish, even fractionally, the trauma that is still being felt by victims to this day.”

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Seven men charged after investigation into child sexual exploitation in Bristol

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Seven men charged after investigation into child sexual exploitation in Bristol

Seven men have been charged with more than 40 offences against 11 teenagers after an investigation into child sexual exploitation in Bristol.

The alleged offences took place between 2022 and 2025 when the victims were in their mid to late teens.

Police said an investigation into claims of group-based sexual abuse in the city began in late 2023.

The men were arrested in April 2024 and bailed, but were detained again yesterday and are due to appear at Bristol Magistrates’ Court this morning.

The seven charged are:

Mohamed Arafe, 19, (Syrian): Six child sexual exploitation charges and one count of sexual assault. He also faces two counts over the supply of cocaine and ecstasy.

Sina Omari, 20, (Iranian): Two counts of rape; five child sexual exploitation charges; two counts of making an indecent photo of a child; two counts over the supply of cocaine and ecstasy.

Wadie Sharaf, 21, (Syrian): One count of rape; one count of attempted rape; three counts of sexual assault; one count of sexual activity with a child.

Hussain Bashar, 19, (British): One count of rape.

Mohammed Kurdi, 21 (British): Two counts of rape; two child sexual exploitation charges; two counts over the supply of ecstasy and cannabis.

Unnamed 19-year-old man: Four counts of rape; one child sexual exploitation charge; one count of distributing an indecent photo of a child, two counts over the supply of cocaine and ecstasy.

Unnamed 26-year-old-man: Two counts of rape and one count of sexual assault.

All five men named by police are from Bristol. Police also released details of their nationalities, along with their names and ages.

Read more from Sky News:
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Image released after sleeping woman sexually assaulted

Officers said safeguarding measures and support have been made available to the victims.

Superintendent Deepak Kenth said the case would be a “huge shock to our communities” but they were working “tirelessly” to stop child sexual exploitation in the city.

“We’ve held events in Bristol city centre and continue to work with hotels, taxi drivers, and other businesses, to raise awareness about the signs of exploitation and the need to report any concerns or issues to the police,” he said.

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Thousands of NHS staff to be made redundant after funding agreed

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Thousands of NHS staff to be made redundant after funding agreed

Thousands of job cuts at the NHS will go ahead after the £1bn needed to fund the redundancies was approved by the Treasury.

The government had already announced its intention to slash the headcount across both NHS England and the Department of Health by around 18,000 administrative staff and managers, including on local health boards.

The move is designed to remove “unnecessary bureaucracy” and raise £1bn a year by the end of the parliament to improve services for patients by freeing up more cash for operations.

NHS England, the Department of Health and Social Care, and the Treasury had been in talks over how to pay for the £1bn one-off bill for redundancies.

It is understood the Treasury has not granted additional funding for the departures over and above the NHS’s current cash settlement, but the NHS will be permitted to overspend its budget this year to pay for redundancies, recouping the costs further down the line.

‘Every penny will be spent wisely’

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to make further announcements regarding the health service in the budget on 26 November.

And addressing the NHS providers’ annual conference in Manchester today, Mr Streeting is expected to say the government will be “protecting investment in the NHS”.

He will add: “I want to reassure taxpayers that every penny they are being asked to pay will be spent wisely.

“Our investment to offer more services at evenings and weekends, arm staff with modern technology, and improving staff retention is working.

“At the same time, cuts to wasteful spending on things like recruitment agencies saw productivity grow by 2.4% in the most recent figures – we are getting better bang for our buck.”

Health Secretary Wes Streeting during a visit to the NHS National Operations Centre in London earlier this year. Pic: PA
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting during a visit to the NHS National Operations Centre in London earlier this year. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s speech is due to be given just hours after he became entrenched in rumours of a possible coup attempt against Sir Keir Starmer, whose poll ratings have plummeted ahead of what’s set to be a tough budget.

Mr Streeting’s spokesperson was forced to deny he was doing anything other than concentrating on the health service.

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He is also expected on Wednesday to give NHS leaders the go-ahead for a 50% cut to headcounts in Integrated Care Boards, which plan health services for specific regions.

They have been tasked with transforming the NHS into a neighbourhood health service – as set down in the government’s long-term plans for the NHS.

Those include abolishing NHS England, which will be brought back into the health department within two years.

Watch Wes Streeting on Mornings With Ridge And Frost from 7am on Sky News.

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