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The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

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It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
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How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
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MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

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Man charged with 11 counts of attempted murder over mass train stabbing and another attack at station hours earlier

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Man charged with 11 counts of attempted murder over mass train stabbing and another attack at station hours earlier

A 32-year-old man has been charged with 10 counts of attempted murder after a mass stabbing on a high-speed train.

Anthony Williams, 32, from Peterborough, was arrested on Saturday evening following an attack on the Doncaster to London King’s Cross LNER service.

He has been charged with 10 counts of attempted murder, one count of actual bodily harm and one count of possession of a bladed article following a knife attack on a train in Cambridgeshire on Saturday, British Transport Police (BTP) said.

BTP said he has also been charged with another count of attempted murder and possession of a bladed article in connection with an incident on a London train in the early hours of 1 November.

Police said a victim suffered facial injuries after being attacked at 12.46am with a knife on a train at Pontoon Dock station on the Docklands Light Railway (DLR) in east London.

In a statement to Sky News, BTP said the suspect had left the location before police arrived and officers subsequently identified Williams as a suspect.

Williams will appear at Peterborough Magistrates on Monday morning, police said.

Armed police were deployed to Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, where the train was stopped and made the arrest within eight minutes of the first 999 call.

Forensic teams gathering evidence at Huntingdon train station on Sunday, after a mass train stabbing. Pic: PA
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Forensic teams gathering evidence at Huntingdon train station on Sunday, after a mass train stabbing. Pic: PA

Footage of the arrest has emerged, showing a man on the ground surrounded by officers and a barking police dog, with the sound of a Taser being deployed.

Another man, 35, from London, who was also detained, was later released after officers established he was not involved.

On Monday, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander told Sky News that one man, originally suffering life-threatening injuries, was now in a critical but stable condition in hospital.

She told Mornings with Ridge and Frost programme: “He went in to do his job, and he left work a hero. And there are people who are alive today because of his actions and his bravery.”

On Sunday, British Transport Police (BTP) confirmed he was a member of LNER rail staff who tried to stop the attacker.

“Having viewed the CCTV from the train, the actions of the member of rail staff were nothing short of heroic and undoubtedly saved people’s lives,” said BTP Deputy Chief Constable (DCC) Stuart Cundy.

The train driver, named as Andrew Johnson, has also been hailed as “courageous” for his actions during the stabbings.

Read more from Sky News:
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Following the announcement about the charges on Monday, DCC Cundy warned against anyone interfering with their ongoing investigation.

“Our investigation is also looking at other possible linked offences. Following the charges authorised by the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) I would stress the importance of not saying or publishing anything which might jeopardise or prejudice ongoing criminal proceedings, or the integrity of the investigation.”

Ms Alexander also told Sky News that BTP would be “increasing the visible patrols at stations” over the next few days.

“But generally, our trains are some of the most safest forms of public transport anywhere in the world,” she added.

Armed police officers on patrol at St Pancras International station on Monday morning. Pic: PA
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Armed police officers on patrol at St Pancras International station on Monday morning. Pic: PA

Tracy Easton, chief crown prosecutor for CPS Direct, said: “Our team of out-of-hours prosecutors worked to establish that there is sufficient evidence to bring the case to trial and it is in the public interest to pursue criminal proceedings.

“We worked closely with British Transport Police to review a huge volume of evidence including CCTV. The number of charges will be kept under review as this continues to progress.

“We know the devastating impact the events on Saturday’s train has had and how the incident shocked the entire country. Our thoughts remain with all those affected.”

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Pregnant British teenager held on drugs charges freed from Georgian jail

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Pregnant British teenager held on drugs charges freed from Georgian jail

A pregnant British teenager has been released from jail in Georgia after being held on drug smuggling charges.

Bella May Culley, 19, of Billingham, County Durham, was arrested in May at Tbilisi Airport and accused of attempting to smuggle 12kg of marijuana and 2kg of hashish into the country.

She was found guilty by a Georgian court on Monday and sentenced to five months and 25 days in prison, the total time she had already spent in custody. Her family also paid a 500,000 lari (about £138,000) as part of a plea deal aimed at reducing her sentence.

Culley and her mother, Lyanne Kennedy, both cried as the verdict was read.

Wearing a cream blazer, the teenager looked overwhelmed as she was released from custody on Monday.

Asked how she felt, she said she was “happy” and told reporters she did not expect to be freed.

Bella Culley at an earlier court hearing in May. Pic: RUSTAVI 2/AP
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Bella Culley at an earlier court hearing in May. Pic: RUSTAVI 2/AP

Culley’s mother held her daughter’s hand as she was released.

Georgian prosecutors were considering a two-year sentence, but “decided to consider the time she has already served,” case prosecutor Vakhtang Tsalughelashvili told The Associated Press.

Culley’s lawyer, Malkhaz Salakhaia, said she would be given her passport and would be free to leave the country on Monday.

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Police footage released in May showed Culley in handcuffs as she made an initial court appearance. Pic: AP

The teenager pleaded not guilty to the charges after her arrest, saying she was tortured in Thailand and forced to carry the drugs.

Culley initially pleaded not guilty at a hearing in July to possession and trafficking illegal drugs.

She initially faced a maximum penalty of up to 15 years or life imprisonment, but was in talks with prosecutors about a potential plea bargain.

Bella Culley walks with her mother, Lyanne Kennedy, following her release. Pic: Reuters
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Bella Culley walks with her mother, Lyanne Kennedy, following her release. Pic: Reuters

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In Georgia, a nation of 3.7 million in the South Caucasus, the law allows for financial plea agreements that can be reached to reduce or eliminate a prison sentence in certain cases.

Such plea agreements are often obtained in drug-related cases.

Culley was reported missing in Thailand before her arrest at Tbilisi Airport on May 10.

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Sole survivor of Air India crash tells Sky News the trauma ‘broke’ him

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Sole survivor of Air India crash tells Sky News the trauma 'broke' him

The sole survivor of the Air India crash that killed 241 people on board has told Sky News he has been “broke down” by the trauma.

Air India Flight 171 crashed into a building just after take-off in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, on 12 June, with Briton Viswashkumar Ramesh the only passenger who walked away from the wreckage.

In an interview with Sophy Ridge on the new Mornings with Ridge and Frost programme, Mr Ramesh faltered, stumbled and regularly lapsed into long silence as he tried to recall the day.

Warning: This article contains details some may find distressing

Mr Ramesh, 40, was in the now-fabled seat 11a, which was located next to an emergency door that he managed to climb out of after the Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed.

Smoke rises from the wreckage. Pic: Reuters
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Smoke rises from the wreckage. Pic: Reuters

His younger brother, Ajaykumar, seated in a different row on the plane, could not escape.

Months on, Mr Ramesh wanted to share the impact of that day in an attempt to try to regain control of his life – and to pressure Air India into addressing the catastrophic effect of the crash on him and his family.

But it is clearly traumatic to talk about.

“It’s very painful talking about the plane,” he says softly.

Asked by Ridge if he can speak about what happened on board, he falls silent.

Just after the crash, from his hospital bed, Mr Ramesh told cable news channel DD India “there were bodies all around me” when he stood up after the crash. A further 19 people had been killed on the ground.

In hospital, he was still pleading for help in finding his brother.

“How is your life now?” Ridge asks.

He says the crash has left him feeling “very broke down”, adding it’s much the same for the rest of his family.

He does not leave the house, he says, instead sitting alone in his bedroom, doing “nothing”.

“I just think about my brother,” he adds. “For me, he was everything.”

He says he still cannot believe Ajaykumar is dead – but that’s as much as he can bring himself to say about him.

Ridge acknowledges the contrast between Mr Ramesh’s own survival – “a miracle” – and the “nightmare” of losing his brother.

It echoes the sentiment of Mr Ramesh’s other brother, Nayankumar, who told Sky News in June: “I’ve got no words to describe it. It’s a miracle that he [Viswashkumar] survived – but what about the other miracle for my other brother?”

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Nayankumar speaking to Sky News in June

Mr Ramesh says he is still suffering physical discomfort too, dealing with knee, shoulder and back pain, along with burns to his left arm. His wife, he says, has to help him shower.

He and his wife live in Leicester with their four-year-old son, Divang.

“I have a four-year-old, so I know what four-year-olds are like,” Ridge says. “They’re a handful but they can bring a lot joy as well. How has he been since the tragedy happened?”

Mr Ramesh says Divang is “okay” but, with his eyes lowered, adds: “I’m not talking properly with my son.”

“Does he come to your room?” Ridge asks.

He shakes his head.

Mr Ramesh was joined by Leicester community leader Sanjiv Patel and his adviser and spokesperson Radd Seiger for support as he spoke to Ridge.

“Sophy… this is an important question that you’re asking,” says Mr Seiger.

“You’re a parent, I’m a parent, and we all know that being a parent is a privilege, isn’t it? But it takes a lot of energy… you need to be in a good place to be a good parent, to have that from the moment they wake up to the moment they go to bed.

“You need to be in a good place and we can all see… he’s [Mr Ramesh] been robbed of that and I think it’s just a chore for him to just get through the day, let alone be a husband, be a father.”

What’s next for the crash’s sole survivor?

Mr Seiger and Mr Patel say the list of what he needs to get his life back on track is “endless” but that it starts with “practical things” such as financial support.

Mr Ramesh and Ajaykumar used “all their savings” to set up a fishing business in India, which saw them frequently flying there together from the UK.

The business has stopped running since the crash, meaning Mr Ramesh’s extended family in both the UK and India has no income, according to Mr Patel.

For them, it amounts to an “existential threat”, he adds.

Police officer standing in front of Air India aircraft wreckage after crash near Ahmedabad airport. Pic: Reuters
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Police officer standing in front of Air India aircraft wreckage after crash near Ahmedabad airport. Pic: Reuters

They say Air India has offered Mr Ramesh a flat interim payment of £21,500 – a one-off sum given to a claimant in advance of reaching the end of a personal injury claim.

A spokesperson for Tata Group, Air India’s parent company, told Sky News that Mr Ramesh had accepted the payment and that it had been transferred to him.

But Mr Seiger says the sum “doesn’t even touch the sides” when it comes to everything Mr Ramesh needs while he is unable to work or leave his home – from help with transporting his son to school, to food, to medical and psychiatric support.

They are petitioning for more than just cash payments, which they suggest reduces Mr Ramesh to “a number on a spreadsheet”.

Rather, they want Air India’s chief executive Campbell Wilson to meet with him, his family and the families of other victims in the crash, to hear about their struggles and “talk as humans”.

Mr Patel said: “Meet the people. Understand what they’re going through. Relying on bureaucratic machinery to deal with real lives [of people] who are going through real trauma – the pain of that, the financial consequences – that is the day-to-day – how lives have been destroyed, and not just the immediate family, but extended families too.”

A fire officer stands next to the crashed aircraft. Pic: Reuters
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A fire officer stands next to the crashed aircraft. Pic: Reuters

A spokesperson for Air India told Sky News: “We are deeply conscious of our responsibility to provide Mr Ramesh with support through what must have been an unimaginable period. Care for him – and indeed all families affected by the tragedy – remains our absolute priority.

“Senior leaders from across Tata Group continue to visit families to express their deepest condolences. An offer has been made to Mr Ramesh’s representatives to arrange such a meeting, we will continue to reach out and we very much hope to receive a positive response.

“We are keenly aware this continues to be an incredibly difficult time for all affected and continue to offer the support, compassion, and care we can in the circumstances.”

Mr Patel also claims the UK government took away Mr Ramesh’s family’s Universal Credit after they went to India following the disaster.

Read more:
Families prepared for court fight over disaster which left 260 dead
Plane suffered ‘no mechanical fault’ before crash

According to the government’s website, those receiving Universal Credit can continue to do so if they go abroad for one month. This can be extended to two months if “a close relative dies while you’re abroad and it would not be reasonable for you to come back to the UK”, it states.

They are calling on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to look into the family’s circumstances and pressure Air India into doing more to help.

Mr Patel appeals to him, saying: “Take action today. If this was your family, what would you do? And if you understand that, you’ll know what to do.”

He suggests the UK government can also be doing more directly to help families in Britain who have been “devastated” by the crash.

“So while we wait for Air India to do what’s right, there’s what the UK authorities and the system can do as being right to serve the citizens in support during this tragic time,” he adds.

The Department for Work and Pensions told Sky News: “Our thoughts remain with the loved ones affected by this devastating tragedy.

“Our policy ensures people travelling abroad due to a bereavement can continue receiving Universal Credit for up to two months, rather than the standard one-month limit. Those who are abroad for longer periods would not be able to continue receiving the benefit.

“People can make a new claim once they return to the UK. This approach strikes a balance between our commitment to ensuring people get the support they need and our duty to the taxpayer.”

:: Watch Mornings with Ridge and Frost on weekdays Monday to Thursday, from 7am to 10am on Sky News

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