The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
Image: How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
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2:24
Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
Image: MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan Tate have been charged with rape and other offences in the UK.
Andrew Tate, 38, faces 10 charges, including rape, actual bodily harm, human trafficking and controlling prostitution for gain, relating to three women.
His brother Tristan Tate, 36, faces 11 charges relating to one woman – including rape, actual bodily harm and human trafficking.
The charges were authorised in January 2024, but full details have only been released now.
Bedfordshire Police issued an international arrest warrant for the brothers over allegations, which they “unequivocally deny”, said to have occurred between 2012 and 2015.
The Tate brothers are facing separate allegations of trafficking minors, sexual intercourse with a minor and money laundering in Romania.
They are also accused of human trafficking and forming a criminal gang to sexually exploit women in a different case, which has been sent back to prosecutors.
They are due to be extradited to the UK following the conclusion of proceedings in Romania.
Image: Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan outside a Bucharest court in January. File pic: Inquam Photos/Octav Ganea via Reuters
A Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) spokesperson said: “We can confirm that we have authorised charges against Andrew and Tristan Tate for offences including rape, human trafficking, controlling prostitution and actual bodily harm against three women.
“These charging decisions followed receipt of a file of evidence from Bedfordshire Police.
“A European Arrest Warrant was issued in England in 2024, and as a result the Romanian courts ordered the extradition to the UK of Andrew and Tristan Tate.”
The spokesperson added: “However, the domestic criminal matters in Romania must be settled first.
“The Crown Prosecution Service reminds everyone that criminal proceedings are active, and the defendants have the right to a fair trial.
“It is extremely important that there be no reporting, commentary or sharing of information online which could in any way prejudice these proceedings.”
Representatives for Andrew Tate have been contacted by Sky News for comment.
Lawyer Matt Jury, of McCue Jury & Partners, representing several alleged British victims of Andrew Tate, said: “We welcome the clarity from the Crown Prosecution Service that our authorities are working to ensure the Tates face justice here in the UK – they cannot be allowed to escape extradition.
“At the same time, we ask once more that CPS admit its mistake in failing to prosecute Tate when he lived in the UK and finally charge him for the rape and assault of the other three women, our clients, who originally filed criminal complaints against him as long ago as 2014 but were failed by the system.
“They deserve justice, too.”
The allegations were subject to a police investigation, which was closed in 2019.
Merseyside Police has been given more time to question a 53-year-old man arrested over the Liverpool parade collision.
The suspect is being held on suspicion of attempted murder, dangerous driving and drug driving after a car was driven into a crowd at Liverpool FC’s victory parade on Monday.
Police have said the extra time they have been given to question the suspect runs into Thursday.
The force believes the vehicle which struck pedestrians on Water Street had followed an ambulance crew that was attending to someone suffering a heart attack, after a road block was temporarily lifted.
Earlier, new footage emerged showing a car being driven into the crowd as panicked fans watched in horror and tried to avoid being hit.
The CCTV footage showed supporters attempting to move out of the way as the vehicle ploughed into supporters.
Cries could be heard from the crowd – before police and members of the public chased after the car.
In an update on Wednesday, Merseyside Police said it was in contact with 79 people who were injured in the crash – an increase on the 65 people who were confirmed injured in the force’s previous update.
Seven people remain in hospital in a stable condition following the collision, the force added.
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Moment car drives into crowds in Liverpool
Detective Superintendent Rachel Wilson said: “I’m pleased to say that the number of people in hospital is reducing as they continue to recover from the awful incident.
“We continue to support those still receiving treatment and as part of our ongoing enquiries we are identifying more people who were injured.
“I want to reassure the public of Merseyside that detectives are making significant progress as we seek to establish the full circumstances that led to what happened.”
Image: Water Street where the collision happened has reopened. Pic: Reuters
Image: Pic: Reuters
DS Wilson said that “extensive CCTV enquiries” were being carried out across Liverpool to “establish the movements of the car, a Ford Galaxy, before the incident took place”.
She added: “We have already had an incredible response from many of those who were there on the day, and I thank them for their co-operation with our investigation.
“I would encourage anyone who has not yet contacted police who may have information on this incident to do so.
“An extensive investigation into the precise circumstances of the incident is ongoing, and we continue to ask people not to speculate on the circumstances surrounding the incident and refrain from sharing distressing content online.”
Image: Emergency service on Water Street after the collision. Pic: Reuters
It comes after Water Street was reopened to vehicles and pedestrians on Wednesday after the police cordon was lifted.
Street cleaning teams worked overnight to clear the road, which had been littered with bottles, cans and football scarves and flags.
One remaining Liverpool flag was removed from the top of a set of traffic lights by a worker wearing hi-vis.
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On Tuesday night, Liverpool manager Arne Slot decided not to attend the League Managers Association’s annual awards ceremony “in solidarity with those affected by the incident on Monday”.
Meanwhile, speaking at an awards ceremony on Tuesday, former Liverpool boss Jurgen Klopp said the collision on Water Street “showed the two faces of life”.
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Klopp sends ‘thoughts and prayers’ to victims
He said: “The most beautiful face for a long, long time: the parade was incredible, the mood was incredible and from one second to another everything changed and we learned again there are more serious things in the world than football.
“Thoughts and prayers go to the injured people and their families as well.
“It should have been one of the greatest days in the history of the city, after a long, long time, because we didn’t have the opportunity to do it last time. I don’t know how and why it happened but we know what happened and that’s very bad.”
The heartbroken mother of a Scottish teenager who vanished three weeks ago has told Sky News she fears he could have been “picked up in a car”.
Cole Cooper, 19, was last seen by an old school friend on Wednesday 7 May in the village of Longcroft near Falkirk.
Prior to that, he was captured on CCTV a few days earlier after leaving a house party in the area.
His mum, Wendy Stewart, 42, allowed Sky News into her home as she revealed the pain her family is enduring.
Image: Cole’s mother Wendy Stewart (L) and his aunt Aimee Tennie
Wiping away tears, Ms Stewart said: “I don’t know what’s happened. He has not been seen. Is it a possibility he has been picked up by a car?
“I don’t want to start speculating but I just want answers. Somebody please come and tell us.”
She added: “It’s total heartache. It’s just so surreal. Is this actually happening? I have been wanting to wake up and it’s just been a big nightmare.”
Image: Pic: Police Scotland
Cole’s family say the joinery apprentice recently started up his own fencing and decking business, which was thriving.
His aunt Aimee Tennie who has arranged community searches and erected missing posters, has said he is a popular young man who enjoys karaoke.
The 32-year-old told Sky News: “He is well liked. He is well respected. He is a lovely boy. If he is out there, we want you to come home.
“We want answers. We miss you. We love you.”
Image: Pic: Police Scotland
Image: Pic: Family handout
Police Scotland said more than 220 properties have been visited and more than 1,000 hours of CCTV footage collected as part of the force’s efforts to find the teenager.
Specialist resources from across the country have been mobilised to help, including the police helicopter and drones from the air support unit, as well as officers from the dive and marine unit.
Ms Stewart said she would not lose hope of finding her son.
She said: “I am still praying that we get the outcome that we want which is Cole to come back home with us and to make more happy memories.”