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The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

Politics latest: Starmer blames Tories for ‘open borders’

It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
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How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
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MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

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Sole survivor of Air India crash tells Sky News the trauma ‘broke’ him

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Sole survivor of Air India crash tells Sky News the trauma 'broke' him

The sole survivor of the Air India crash that killed 241 people on board has told Sky News he has been “broke down” by the trauma.

Air India Flight 171 crashed into a building just after take-off in Ahmedabad, Gujarat, on 12 June, with Briton Viswashkumar Ramesh the only passenger who walked away from the wreckage.

In an interview with Sophy Ridge on the new Mornings with Ridge and Frost programme, Mr Ramesh faltered, stumbled and regularly lapsed into long silence as he tried to recall the day.

Warning: This article contains details some may find distressing

Mr Ramesh, 40, was in the now-fabled seat 11a, which was located next to an emergency door that he managed to climb out of after the Boeing 787 Dreamliner crashed.

Smoke rises from the wreckage. Pic: Reuters
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Smoke rises from the wreckage. Pic: Reuters

His younger brother, Ajaykumar, seated in a different row on the plane, could not escape.

Months on, Mr Ramesh wanted to share the impact of that day in an attempt to try to regain control of his life – and to pressure Air India into addressing the catastrophic effect of the crash on him and his family.

But it is clearly traumatic to talk about.

“It’s very painful talking about the plane,” he says softly.

Asked by Ridge if he can speak about what happened on board, he falls silent.

Just after the crash, from his hospital bed, Mr Ramesh told cable news channel DD India “there were bodies all around me” when he stood up after the crash. A further 19 people had been killed on the ground.

In hospital, he was still pleading for help in finding his brother.

“How is your life now?” Ridge asks.

He says the crash has left him feeling “very broke down”, adding it’s much the same for the rest of his family.

He does not leave the house, he says, instead sitting alone in his bedroom, doing “nothing”.

“I just think about my brother,” he adds. “For me, he was everything.”

He says he still cannot believe Ajaykumar is dead – but that’s as much as he can bring himself to say about him.

Ridge acknowledges the contrast between Mr Ramesh’s own survival – “a miracle” – and the “nightmare” of losing his brother.

It echoes the sentiment of Mr Ramesh’s other brother, Nayankumar, who told Sky News in June: “I’ve got no words to describe it. It’s a miracle that he [Viswashkumar] survived – but what about the other miracle for my other brother?”

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Nayankumar speaking to Sky News in June

Mr Ramesh says he is still suffering physical discomfort too, dealing with knee, shoulder and back pain, along with burns to his left arm. His wife, he says, has to help him shower.

He and his wife live in Leicester with their four-year-old son, Divang.

“I have a four-year-old, so I know what four-year-olds are like,” Ridge says. “They’re a handful but they can bring a lot joy as well. How has he been since the tragedy happened?”

Mr Ramesh says Divang is “okay” but, with his eyes lowered, adds: “I’m not talking properly with my son.”

“Does he come to your room?” Ridge asks.

He shakes his head.

Mr Ramesh was joined by Leicester community leader Sanjiv Patel and his adviser and spokesperson Radd Seiger for support as he spoke to Ridge.

“Sophy… this is an important question that you’re asking,” says Mr Seiger.

“You’re a parent, I’m a parent, and we all know that being a parent is a privilege, isn’t it? But it takes a lot of energy… you need to be in a good place to be a good parent, to have that from the moment they wake up to the moment they go to bed.

“You need to be in a good place and we can all see… he’s [Mr Ramesh] been robbed of that and I think it’s just a chore for him to just get through the day, let alone be a husband, be a father.”

What’s next for the crash’s sole survivor?

Mr Seiger and Mr Patel say the list of what he needs to get his life back on track is “endless” but that it starts with “practical things” such as financial support.

Mr Ramesh and Ajaykumar used “all their savings” to set up a fishing business in India, which saw them frequently flying there together from the UK.

The business has stopped running since the crash, meaning Mr Ramesh’s extended family in both the UK and India has no income, according to Mr Patel.

For them, it amounts to an “existential threat”, he adds.

Police officer standing in front of Air India aircraft wreckage after crash near Ahmedabad airport. Pic: Reuters
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Police officer standing in front of Air India aircraft wreckage after crash near Ahmedabad airport. Pic: Reuters

They say Air India has offered Mr Ramesh a flat interim payment of £21,500 – a one-off sum given to a claimant in advance of reaching the end of a personal injury claim.

A spokesperson for Tata Group, Air India’s parent company, told Sky News that Mr Ramesh had accepted the payment and that it had been transferred to him.

But Mr Seiger says the sum “doesn’t even touch the sides” when it comes to everything Mr Ramesh needs while he is unable to work or leave his home – from help with transporting his son to school, to food, to medical and psychiatric support.

They are petitioning for more than just cash payments, which they suggest reduces Mr Ramesh to “a number on a spreadsheet”.

Rather, they want Air India’s chief executive Campbell Wilson to meet with him, his family and the families of other victims in the crash, to hear about their struggles and “talk as humans”.

Mr Patel said: “Meet the people. Understand what they’re going through. Relying on bureaucratic machinery to deal with real lives [of people] who are going through real trauma – the pain of that, the financial consequences – that is the day-to-day – how lives have been destroyed, and not just the immediate family, but extended families too.”

A fire officer stands next to the crashed aircraft. Pic: Reuters
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A fire officer stands next to the crashed aircraft. Pic: Reuters

A spokesperson for Air India told Sky News: “We are deeply conscious of our responsibility to provide Mr Ramesh with support through what must have been an unimaginable period. Care for him – and indeed all families affected by the tragedy – remains our absolute priority.

“Senior leaders from across Tata Group continue to visit families to express their deepest condolences. An offer has been made to Mr Ramesh’s representatives to arrange such a meeting, we will continue to reach out and we very much hope to receive a positive response.

“We are keenly aware this continues to be an incredibly difficult time for all affected and continue to offer the support, compassion, and care we can in the circumstances.”

Mr Patel also claims the UK government took away Mr Ramesh’s family’s Universal Credit after they went to India following the disaster.

Read more:
Families prepared for court fight over disaster which left 260 dead
Plane suffered ‘no mechanical fault’ before crash

According to the government’s website, those receiving Universal Credit can continue to do so if they go abroad for one month. This can be extended to two months if “a close relative dies while you’re abroad and it would not be reasonable for you to come back to the UK”, it states.

They are calling on Prime Minister Keir Starmer to look into the family’s circumstances and pressure Air India into doing more to help.

Mr Patel appeals to him, saying: “Take action today. If this was your family, what would you do? And if you understand that, you’ll know what to do.”

He suggests the UK government can also be doing more directly to help families in Britain who have been “devastated” by the crash.

“So while we wait for Air India to do what’s right, there’s what the UK authorities and the system can do as being right to serve the citizens in support during this tragic time,” he adds.

The Department for Work and Pensions told Sky News: “Our thoughts remain with the loved ones affected by this devastating tragedy.

“Our policy ensures people travelling abroad due to a bereavement can continue receiving Universal Credit for up to two months, rather than the standard one-month limit. Those who are abroad for longer periods would not be able to continue receiving the benefit.

“People can make a new claim once they return to the UK. This approach strikes a balance between our commitment to ensuring people get the support they need and our duty to the taxpayer.”

:: Watch Mornings with Ridge and Frost on weekdays Monday to Thursday, from 7am to 10am on Sky News

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‘Heroic’ rail worker who tried to stop train knife attacker still in life-threatening condition

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'Heroic' rail worker who tried to stop train knife attacker still in life-threatening condition

A “heroic” rail worker who tried to stop a knife attacker as he carried out a mass stabbing on a high-speed train remains in a life-threatening condition.

A 32-year-old man who was arrested after the 6.25pm Doncaster to London King’s Cross LNER service on Saturday was stopped at Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire, is being treated as the only suspect, police said.

The man who is from Peterborough, where he boarded the train, is being held in custody on suspicion of attempted murder, while another man, 35, who was also arrested has been released with no further action.

Train stabbing latest: Two victims still fighting for lives

A knife was recovered at the scene after armed police were deployed to the train and made the arrests within eight minutes of the 999 call.

In total, 11 people were treated in hospital – nine were initially reported as having life-threatening injuries.

One of the two men arrested at Huntingdon Station by police
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One of the two men arrested at Huntingdon Station by police

Five casualties have now been discharged and one – a member of LNER rail staff who tried to stop the attacker – remains in a life-threatening condition, British Transport Police (BTP) said in a statement on Sunday evening.

BTP Deputy Chief Constable Stuart Cundy said: “This was a horrific attack that has had a wide impact.

“My thoughts and those of everyone in British Transport Police are with those injured and their families – especially the brave member of rail staff whose family are being supported by specialist officers.

“Having viewed the CCTV from the train, the actions of the member of rail staff were nothing short of heroic and undoubtedly saved people’s lives.”

The train driver hailed as “courageous” for his actions during the stabbings has been named as Andrew Johnson.

“The driver did everything he was trained to do, at the right time and in the right way,” said Nigel Roebuck, full-time organiser in the north-east of England for the train drivers’ union Aslef.

“He brought the train into a station where passengers could disembark safely and where police, fire and rescue, and ambulance crew could get on to the train and attend to the victims and, we believe, catch the culprit.

“He showed real courage, real dedication, and real determination in the most difficult of circumstances.”

Emergency responders at Huntingdon station in Cambridgeshire on Saturday night. Pic: PA
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Emergency responders at Huntingdon station in Cambridgeshire on Saturday night. Pic: PA

Police earlier said the two men arrested included a 32-year-old male, a black British national, and a 35-year-old man, a British national of Caribbean descent. Both were born in the UK.

In an update, they said the 35-year-old, who is from London, was not involved.

A witness told Sky News that police fired a Taser at a man with a large knife, after he went on a bloody rampage on the high-speed train.

In a statement, the King and Queen said they were “truly appalled and shocked to hear of the dreadful knife attack,” and offered their “deepest sympathy and thoughts” to those affected.

Emergency crews spilled out onto the tracks. Pic: PA
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Emergency crews spilled out onto the tracks. Pic: PA

Police erected a cordon outside the station. Pic: PA
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Police erected a cordon outside the station. Pic: PA

Police examine ‘motivations’ for attack

Counter-terrorism police were initially supporting the investigation.

But BTP Superintendent John Loveless said there was “nothing to suggest that this is a terrorist incident”, adding that the investigation would continue to examine the “motivations” which led to the attack.

Investigators examine the scene outside Huntingdon station. Pic: PA
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Investigators examine the scene outside Huntingdon station. Pic: PA

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

BTP Dep Chief Con Cundy said: “Our investigation is moving at pace and we are confident we are not looking for anyone else in connection to the incident.

“As would be expected, specialist detectives are looking into the background of the suspect we have in custody and the events that led up to the attack.”

Witnesses told Sky News the stabbings started a few minutes after the train left Peterborough and passengers sounded the emergency alarm.

People described how some passengers were trampling over each other and hiding in the toilets to escape the attacker.

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Policing commentator Graham Wettone speaks to Gillian Joseph

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said it was an “appalling incident” and was “deeply concerning”.

“My thoughts are with all those affected, and my thanks go to the emergency services for their response,” he wrote on X.

Armed police, paramedics, air ambulances, and transport police arrived within minutes. Pic: PA
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Armed police, paramedics, air ambulances, and transport police arrived within minutes. Pic: PA

Officers wearing forensic suits with a police dog outside the station. Pic: PA
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Officers wearing forensic suits with a police dog outside the station. Pic: PA

‘Extraordinary bravery’

The main opposition leaders, Kemi Badenoch and Ed Davey, have also reacted.

The Tory leader initially said she was “deeply disturbed” by events. Later, she posted an update online suggesting “there’s clearly something going wrong in our society right now”.

The Lib Dem leader took a different approach in his statement, focusing on the “very best of Britain” and the “extraordinary bravery” of those at the scene.

Route of the LNER train service from Doncaster to London King's Cross
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Route of the LNER train service from Doncaster to London King’s Cross

‘Shocked and frightened’ passengers

Defence Secretary John Healey spoke to Sky News on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips and said he took the same train route just hours before the attack.

“It’s the service I use every week to get home to Rotherham, so I can’t begin to imagine how shocked and frightened those passengers were.”

Asked by Phillips if the attack has changed the UK’s terror threat level, he said no and that it remains “substantial” – meaning an attack is considered “likely”.

Read more:
‘They’ve got a knife’: Eyewitness recalls attack
How the attack unfolded

Watch: Moment armed police arrive at train stabbing

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Why stabbing ‘close to home’ for Defence Secretary

‘Like a horror film’

Mayor of Huntingdon, councillor Audrey McAdam, told Sky News she was “very emotional” after hearing about the stabbing and said it must have been like a “horror film” for the passengers.

“I’m still in shock… I’m very emotional, and as soon as I found out, I thought, ‘oh no’.

“I’m worried about the people actually in hospital at this moment… it’s something I never thought would ever happen around Huntingdon… it’s something so dreadful.

“But to live in that moment… it’s a horror film… complete horror. I just cannot imagine what the people must have [been] feeling… When you’re stuck on a train, what can you do? A moving train.”

Huntingdon's mayor told Sky News it must have been like a 'horror film' for passengers
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Huntingdon’s mayor told Sky News it must have been like a ‘horror film’ for passengers

An ‘incredible’ response from emergency services

Huntingdon MP Ben Obese-Jecty spoke to Sky News at the scene on Saturday night. He said: “When I first arrived here, I’ve simply never seen as big a response to an emergency incident as there was in terms of police, fire and ambulance.”

On Sunday morning, Mr Obese-Jecty spoke again about the “rapid, incredible response” and praised the “brave officers who came to try and neutralise that threat”.

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Police prepared for marauding attack a week ago

Extra police are reportedly going to be deployed across the rail network for at least the next few days.

Government sources have told the PA news agency that there will be a “surge” in the police presence, lasting until Tuesday at least.

Officers are likely to focus on major terminals such as London, Birmingham, York, Leeds and Manchester, as well as at Huntingdon.

National Rail said some train routes to and from London King’s Cross on LNER, Great Northern and Thameslink services faced disruption on Sunday.

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Police rehearsed a knife attack scenario on a train line in March – here’s what went differently this time

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Police rehearsed a knife attack scenario on a train line in March - here's what went differently this time

British Transport Police held an emergency exercise for press officers in March, which ironically involved a stabbing on a train travelling south near Huntingdon.

In the training drill, the train stopped immediately between stations when a passenger pulled the emergency cord.

It took police 25 minutes to reach the train and casualties, far longer than the eight minutes in which Cambridgeshire firearms officers reached the scene at Huntingdon station.

Follow latest: ‘Nothing to suggest’ terror attack, police say

Chris Webb, a crisis communications expert who helped run the exercise, said: “People think if you pull the emergency cord on a train it stops immediately, but that’s not what happens these days.

“As soon as the driver knows there is a problem, he or she radios the line operator HQ and they discuss where to stop.

“The decision last night was to keep going to Huntingdon station, where it was much easier for armed police to get on.”

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Forensic investigators at Huntingdon train station in Cambridgeshire
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Forensic investigators at Huntingdon train station in Cambridgeshire

He added: “It must have been awful for passengers when the train kept going for another ten minutes or so.

“It’s always a balance. It might have prolonged the attack, but stopping in the middle of nowhere can mean the attack stops but it’s much more difficult for the emergency services to get there.”

Mr Webb, former head of news at Scotland Yard, said such exercises are held regularly by train operators.

A similar drill was carried out on the London Underground weeks before the 7/7 bombings in 2005.

“There are always lessons to learn but you cannot guard against everything.”

In the training exercise in March the suspect was a white man with mental health issues. He was shot dead by police.

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‘Two suspects are British nationals’

Read more:
What we know so far about the Huntingdon train stabbings
Eyewitness recalls horror attack on high-speed train

What happened in the Huntingdon attack?

Police triggered the Plato code to all emergency services in their initial response to the Huntingdon train stabbing, but that did not label it a terrorist attack.

Plato is called for a major incident where it’s thought a suspect is on the loose and has already, or is liable to, cause serious injury.

Plato does not denote a terror attack, though it is often used in terrorist incidents.

A forensic investigator on the platform by the train at Huntingdon train station in Cambridgeshire
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A forensic investigator on the platform by the train at Huntingdon train station in Cambridgeshire

In a Plato response paramedics, fire fighters and other first responders are sent to a safe rendezvous point while armed police go in and deal with the suspect.

Plato depicts a situation where unarmed responders are vulnerable and are kept back until it is safe to approach casualties.

There are exceptions and it’s understood the East of England Ambulance Service has a special Hazardous Area Response Team (HART) which was allowed to accompany armed police onto the platform where the two suspects were arrested last night.

Once other first responders were allowed in, Plato was called off – an important part of the operation.

Plato was called during the initial response to the Manchester Arena bomb attack in 2017, but the fire service was not told it had been called off for two hours and that meant its officers did not go in to help with the rescue.

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