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The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

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It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
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How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
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Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
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MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

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Sir Keir Starmer arrives in Washington for talks with President Trump – and repeats calls for security guarantee for Ukraine

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Sir Keir Starmer arrives in Washington for talks with President Trump - and repeats calls for security guarantee for Ukraine

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer brushed aside growing tensions between the White House and Europe over Ukraine on Wednesday, saying he trusted Donald Trump and wanted the “special relationship” to go “from strength to strength”.

Speaking to reporters ahead of a crucial meeting at the White House, Sir Keir insisted that the UK was working “in lockstep” with the president on the matter of Ukraine.

Asked if he could trust President Trump in light of what has happened in recent weeks, the prime minister replied “yes”.

“I’ve got a good relationship with him,” Sir Keir said.

“As you know, I’ve met him, I’ve spoken to him on the phone, and this relationship between our two countries is a special relationship with a long history, forged as we fought wars together, as we traded together.

“And as I say, I want it to go from strength to strength.”

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The prime minister has now arrived in Washington, but even before he touched down, the choreography of the trip hit a little turbulence as President Trump appeared to pour cold water on the prospect of a US military backstop for Ukraine as part of any peace deal – a key UK and European demand.

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Can Starmer ‘win’ in Washington?

“I’m not going to make security guarantees beyond very much,” Mr Trump said at his first cabinet meeting on Wednesday.

“We’re going to have Europe do that because Europe is the next-door neighbour.”

His remarks seemed at odds with those made by the prime minister on the way to Washington as he reiterated how important a US military backstop was for Ukraine.

“We all want a peaceful outcome,” the prime minister said.

“It’s got to be a lasting peace, and that requires us to put in place an effective security guarantee.

“Exactly what the configuration of that is, exactly what the backstop is, is obviously the subject of intense discussion.”

He added: “But the reason I say the backstop is so important is that the security guarantee has to be sufficient to deter Putin from coming again because my concern is if there is a ceasefire without a backstop, it will simply give him the opportunity to wait and to come again because his ambition in relation to Ukraine is pretty obvious, I think, for all to see.”

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While European allies such as the UK and France are preparing to put peacekeeping troops on the ground to police the Ukraine-Russian borders, leaders have been clear that US support is essential to containing President Putin and securing that support is the key purpose of the prime minister’s trip to Washington.

President Zelenskyy has also demanded that clear guarantees of US military backing and security be part of his deal with the US on critical minerals, but a framework agreed this week by both sides did not include an explicit reference to any such support.

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Putin is ‘very cunning’

Ahead of the trip to Washington, the prime minister pledged to increase UK defence spending – a key ask of all NATO members by President Trump – and reiterated his commitment to putting British boots on the ground in Ukraine as he attempts to lower tensions between Europe and the US and demonstrate to President Trump that the UK is willing to play its part.

“When it comes to defence and security, we have for decades acted as a bridge because of the special relationship we have with the US and also our allegiance to our European allies,” Sir Keir said.

“I’ve been absolutely resolute that we’re not going to choose between one side of the Atlantic and the other. We will work with the US, we will work with our European allies, that’s what we’ve done for decades, and it’s what we’ll do whilst I’m prime minister.”

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Sir Keir also gave the British public a “message of reassurance” after his decision to accelerate defence spending in the face of Russian aggression, saying he had done it to “ensure their safety” and increased investment would bring opportunities.

“I want to reassure the British public that what we’re doing is to ensure their safety, their security and defence of our country.

“I want to also be clear that this is an opportunity because, as we increase defence spending, then that gives an opportunity for our industrial strategy, for jobs across the UK, good well-paid jobs in defence.”

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Rania Alayed: Human remains found in search for body of murder victim

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Rania Alayed: Human remains found in search for body of murder victim

Police searching for the body of a murder victim have found human remains in North Yorkshire.

Mother of three Rania Alayed was murdered in 2013 by her husband Ahmed al Khatib, of Gorton, Manchester, who was jailed for life the following year.

Her body was never recovered and multiple searches have taken place in the years since then, said Greater Manchester Police (GMP).

Police at the scene by the A19 in Thirsk
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Police at the scene along the A19 in Thirsk

On Tuesday, after receiving new information, GMP officers located buried human remains by the A19 in Thirsk.

The force said in a statement: “While no official identification has taken place, we strongly suspect the remains are that of Rania.

“Her family have been informed of the latest development and are being supported by specially trained officers. They remain at the forefront of our minds.”

Ms Alayed’s son, Yazan, speaking on behalf of their family, said: “The discovery of my mother’s remains more than a decade onwards has come as a surreal surprise to me and my family.

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“At last, being able to provide a final resting place is all we have wanted for the last 11 years, to have the ability to lay down a few flowers for my mother is more than I can ask for from this world.”

Police at the scene by the A19 in Thirsk

Detective Chief Inspector Neil Higginson, from GMP’s major incident team, said Ms Alayed’s murder was “utterly horrific” and not knowing where her body was had caused further pain to those who knew her.

“More than a decade after her murder, we now strongly believe we have located Rania’s body and are finally able to provide closure to her family, who we know have endured so much pain and grief over the years.

“Rania’s family have always been kept informed following our searches over the last few years, and we are providing them updates as we get them following this most recent development,” he said.

During Mr al Khatib’s trial, a court heard how Ms Alayed was born in Syria and met her husband when she was 15.

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The couple fled the Middle East, eventually moving to England.

They had three children but eventually Ms Alayed left the unhappy marriage which had been marred by violence from her husband, the trial heard.

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Seven companies named and shamed in Grenfell Inquiry face being placed on blacklist

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Seven companies named and shamed in Grenfell Inquiry face being placed on blacklist

Seven companies named and shamed in the Grenfell Inquiry are to be investigated and face being placed on a blacklist.

Following the deaths of 72 people in the 2017 Grenfell Tower fire, Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has given the government’s response to the inquiry, published in September after seven years.

The government has accepted the findings of the report, which found “systematic dishonesty” contributed to the devastating fire and there were years of missed opportunities to prevent the catastrophe.

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Seven organisations criticised in the report will now be investigated under the Procurement Act, Ms Rayner said.

If they are determined to have “engaged in professional misconduct” their names will be added to a “debarment list”, which all contracting authorities will have to take into account when awarding new contracts.

Arconic, Saint-Gobain (the former owner of Celotex), Exova, Harley Facades, Kingspan Insulation, Rydon Maintenance and Studio E Architects will all be investigated.

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Cabinet Office parliamentary secretary Georgia Gould said the organisations will be notified when an investigation is opened, and warned investigations into other organisations could take place.

London Mayor Sadiq Khan said companies named and shamed in the report “should be barred from future contracts” and “this must now finally happen without further delay”.

Angela Rayner has confirmed that Grenfell Tower will be demolished. Pic: PA
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Angela Rayner earlier this year confirmed Grenfell Tower will be demolished. Pic: PA

Ms Rayner, who is also the housing secretary, said the government “accepts the findings” of the inquiry and it will “prioritise residents and protect their interests, and make sure that industry builds safe homes, and provide clearer accountability and enforcement”.

She apologised again to the families and friends of those who died, survivors and those who live around the tower.

“To have anyone anywhere living in an unsafe home is one person too many,” she told the House of Commons.

“That will be our guiding principle and must be that of anyone who wants to build or care for our homes. That will be an important part of the legacy of Grenfell.”

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What will happen to the Grenfell site?

More training for social housing tenants

She announced “stronger protections” for social housing tenants, giving them more power to challenge landlords and demand safe, high-quality housing.

The “Four Million Homes” training will be expanded – a government-funded initiative that provides guidance and training for social housing tenants.

However, the National Housing Federation (NHF), which represents about 800 housing associations, said it missed the point as it said social housing tenants cannot access government funding to remove dangerous cladding – and manufacturers of unsafe materials have not contributed to the costs.

Kate Henderson, chief executive of the NHF, told Sky News: “The money to fund this work is coming from people on the lowest incomes in this country, and to make matters worse, means fewer homes will be built for those in dire situations on housing waiting lists, living in overcrowded homes and stuck in temporary accommodation.

“The government must put an end to this unfair funding regime and give social housing providers and their residents equal access to building safety funding.”

Grenfell Tower pictured days after the devastating fire. Pic: AP
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Grenfell Tower pictured days after the devastating fire. Pic: AP

Ms Rayner also announced:

• A new single construction regulator so those responsible for building safety are held to account

• Tougher oversight of testing and certifying, manufacturing and using construction products – with “serious consequences” for those who break the rules

• A legal duty of candour through a “new Hillsborough Law”, so public authorities must disclose the truth

• Stronger, clearer and enforceable legal rights for residents so landlords are responsible for acting on safety concerns

• A publicly accessible record of all public inquiry recommendations

Polly Neate, chief executive of housing and homelessness charity Shelter, said it is “right” the government has committed to take forward all the inquiry’s recommendations but said it needs to boost funding for legal aid so people can actually enforce their rights as tenants.

Earlier this month, the government announced the tower, which has stood covered in scaffolding since the fire nearly eight years ago, will be “carefully” demolished in a process likely to take two years.

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