The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
Image: How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
2:24
Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
Image: MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
A 54-year-old man and a 15-year-old boy have been arrested on suspicion of arson with intent to endanger life after a restaurant fire in east London on Friday.
Two remained in a critical condition on Sunday morning, according to the Metropolitan Police.
The restaurant suffered extensive damage in the blaze.
Two further victims are thought to have left the scene before officers arrived, Scotland Yard said.
Image: Woodford Avenue from above. Pic: UK News and Pictures
Police are still trying to identify them.
CCTV footage seen by the PA news agency appears to show a group of people wearing face coverings walk into the restaurant and pour liquid on the floor.
More from UK
Seconds later, the inside of the restaurant is engulfed in flames.
“While we have made two arrests, our investigation continues at pace so we can piece together what happened on Friday evening,” said the Met Police’s DCI Mark Rogers.
“I know the community [is] concerned and shocked by this incident.
Image: The moment the fire broke out.
“I would urge anyone with any information or concerns to come forward and speak to police.”
Hospital porter Edward Thawe went to help after hearing screams from his nearby home.
He described the scene as “horrible” and “more than scary and the sort of thing that you don’t want to look at twice.”
He said: “I heard screaming and people saying they had called the police.”
The 43-year-old said he saw a woman and a severely burned man who may have been customers.
Another witness, who did not want to be named, said he saw three “severely burned” people being doused by the emergency services and given oxygen.
“I can only imagine the pain they were going through,” he said.
On Saturday, the London Ambulance Service told Sky News: “We sent resources to the scene, including ambulance crews, an advanced paramedic, an incident response officer and paramedics from our hazardous area response team.
“We treated five people for burns and smoke inhalation. We took two patients to a major trauma centre and three others to local hospitals.”
A new fast-track asylum appeals process will be introduced to speed up the process of deporting people without a right to remain in the UK, the home secretary has said.
As it currently takes, on average, more than a year to reach a decision on asylum appeals, the government plans to set up a new independent panel focused on asylum appeals to help reduce the backlog.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said “completely unacceptable” delays in the appeals process left failed asylum seekers in the system for years.
There are about 51,000 asylum appeals waiting to be heard.
The new independent body will use professionally-trained adjudicators, rather than relying on judges.
Ministers are introducing a new 24-week deadline for the first-tier tribunal to determine asylum appeals by those receiving accommodation support and appeals by foreign offenders.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
0:56
Police clash with protesters in Bristol
But they believe the current tribunal system, which covers a wide range of different cases, is still failing to ensure failed asylum seekers can be returned as swiftly as possible, nor can it accommodate a fast-track system for safe countries.
More on Asylum
Related Topics:
It comes amid protests about the use of hotel accommodation for migrants.
The home secretary said the overhaul would result in a system which is “swift, fair and independent, with high standards in place”.
She said: “We inherited an asylum system in complete chaos with a soaring backlog of asylum cases and a broken appeals system with thousands of people in the system for years on end.
“That is why we are taking practical steps to fix the foundations and restore control and order to the system.
“We are determined to substantially reduce the number of people in the asylum system as part of our plan to end asylum hotels.
“Already since the election, we have reduced the backlog of people waiting for initial decisions by 24% and increased failed asylum returns by 30%.
“But we cannot carry on with these completely unacceptable delays in appeals as a result of the system we have inherited which mean that failed asylum seekers stay in the system for years on end at huge cost to the taxpayer.”
Official figures released earlier this month showed a total of 111,084 people applied for asylum in the UK in the year to June 2025, the highest number for any 12-month period since current records began in 2001.
‘Waving immigrants through even faster will not fix the problem’
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said: “I think this goes nowhere near far enough.
“The underlying rights, which allows most illegal immigrants to stay here, are not changing. Simply waving illegal immigrants through even faster to full housing and welfare rights will not fix the problem.”
Image: Chris Philp
He added: “Immigration judges will still apply ever expanding common-sense defying definitions of ECHR rights to allow foreign criminals and illegal immigrants to stay here.”
But the Liberal Democrats have been more positive in their response, with shadow attorney general, Ben Maguire, saying: “A faster application process would mean that those with no right to be here are sent back swiftly and those who do have a valid claim can get a job, integrate and contribute to the community.”
Asked for his thoughts on the policy, immigration lawyer Harjap Singh Bhangal told Sky News that it “definitely sounds like some sort of solution”.
He pointed that the backlog of asylum seekers waiting for a decision is “huge”, around 51,000 people – and that during this time, they are not allowed to work.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
3:53
A new fast-track asylum appeals process will be introduced to speed up the process of deporting people without a right to remain in the UK.
He said: “The equivalent would be saying that imagine if A-level students this year sat the exams and were told ‘well, hold on, you’re not going to get your results for two years’ time. But in the meantime, you can’t go to university.’
“You’d have mayhem, and it’d be pandemonium in the street. You’d have broken people idle with nothing to do. Essentially, this is what’s happening to asylum seekers.”
He added that one of the reasons it takes so long for cases to be heard is because asylum seekers have to represent themselves in court, which can mean upwards of half a day is spent translating and explaining everything to them.
Mr Bhangal also said the immigration system is “broken”, because “they take ages to make a decision which could be made in one week”.
A man who died after suffering “serious head injuries” while “working on a fairground ride” has been named as Corrie Lee Stavers.
Emergency services were called to the Spanish City Summer Funfair in Whitley Bay in North Tyneside after reports that a man, in his 20s, had been injured around 2.15pm on Saturday, police said.
Mr Stavers, 28, was treated at the scene but was declared dead a short time later.
In a statement issued by the police, his family said: “It’s with broken hearts that we share the devastating news that our beloved Corrie has passed away.
“He was tragically taken from us in an accident while working on a fairground ride. None of us were prepared for this, and the pain of losing him so suddenly is impossible to put into words.
“Our lives will never be the same without him, but his memory will live on in our hearts forever.
“We love you endlessly Corrie, and we miss you more than words can ever say.
More from UK
“You’re with our mam now – rest in peace Corrie.”
The funfair, which is in Whitley Bay’s Spanish City Plaza area, has been shut “until further notice” and the Health and Safety Executive has been informed.
The annual funfair had opened on Thursday and had been due to run until Bank Holiday Monday.