The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
Image: How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
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2:24
Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
Image: MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
Two motorcycle racers have died after a crash involving 11 bikes during a British Supersport Championship race at Oulton Park in Cheshire.
Owen Jenner, 21, was treated trackside and taken to the circuit’s medical centre, but organisers said he died from a “catastrophic head injury”.
Shane Richardson, 29, sustained severe chest injuries and was also given treatment at the scene.
He was transferred to Royal Stoke University Hospital but died before he arrived.
A third rider, Tom Tunstall, 47, is at the same hospital with what organisers called “significant back and abdominal injuries”.
Five others from the British Supersport race were taken to the track’s medical centre but didn’t need hospital treatment.
Motorsport Vision Racing, which runs the race series, said the crash happened on the first lap as riders exited turn one at Old Hall corner.
It said there was a “chain reaction” with 11 riders coming off their bikes.
“Due to the extreme severity of the incident and ongoing medical intervention, the remainder of the Bennetts British Superbike Championship event was cancelled,” organisers said in a statement.
Cheshire Police said they were investigating two deaths on behalf of the coroner.
“The Motorcycle Circuit Racing Control Board and MotorSport Vision Racing are investigating the full circumstances of the incident in conjunction with the Coroner and Cheshire Police,” the force said in a statement.
Jenner, from Crowborough, East Sussex, was the 2024 British GP2 champion and was signed to Rapid Honda.
New Zealand superbike racer Richardson was in the Astro JJR HIPPO Suzuki team sponsored by Hippo waste removal service.
Brady Dyer, a councillor in New Zealand’s Lower Hutt city, paid tribute to Richardson on Facebook saying he was a “talented” rider.
“My thoughts are with the family and friends of Shane Richardson, a talented Kiwi rider who tragically lost his life while doing what he loved.
“Shane was proud to be from Wainuiomata and was admired both locally and abroad for his skill and passion.
“This is a heartbreaking loss, and I know many in our community will be feeling it deeply.”
Harley McCabe paid tribute to Jenner as he said in a Facebook post: “Today I lost my team mate [heartbreak emoji], words cant explain how I feel right, now I’m absolutely devastated that I won’t see your smile again.
“You have been there for me over the years and been an amazing team mate and turned into more of an older brother to me!
“The awning will never be the same, we’ve lost a massive part of us all today.”
Mr McCabe added: “Sending love to Owen’s family and friends.”
The British Supersport Championship features 600cc machines and is the main support class to the blue riband professional British Superbikes series.
The Oulton Park event was the opening round of this year’s championship, which takes place at circuits around the UK.
Both riders had posted on social media in recent days about looking forward to this weekend’s races
Jenner was also a superstock champion in 2020 and 2023, and won last year’s GP2 title with 18 wins out of 20 race finishes. After, he signed with British superbike team Rapid Honda.
Richardson, a father-of-two, worked as a part-time test rider for Triumph, according to his social media.
According to his team, Astro JJR Hippo Suzuki, he previously had a business crafting bespoke kitchens before moving into “competing on the UK’s premier racing circuits”.
A man has been charged after a British student nurse was stabbed to death in Texas days before she was due to graduate, according to reports in the US.
Elizabeth Tamilore Odunsi, also known as Tamilore Odunsi, was found dead by police at her home in Houston shortly before 4pm local time on Saturday 26 April, Sky’s US partner network NBC News reports.
Officers had arrived to conduct a welfare check but when they knocked on the door there was no answer.
They saw blood on a rear concrete patio and entered the apartment, where they found the 23-year-old on the kitchen floor with multiple stab wounds.
Ms Odunsi, who is reported to be originally from London, was pronounced dead at the scene.
Image: Chester Lamar Grant: Pic: Houston Police Department
A man, later identified as her roommate Chester Lamar Grant, was found in a bedroom with at least one stab wound and was taken to hospital in a critical condition, police said.
The 40-year-old was arrested on Friday 2 May and has been charged with Ms Odunsi’s murder.
He currently remains in custody at Harris County Jail in Texas with a bond set at $500,000 (around £375,000).
A magistrate has said in a preliminary hearing that the roommates had been involved in a fight over Grant’s cat, according to ABC News.
Ms Odunsi had a TikTok account, Tamidollars, with more than 44,000 followers, where she posted about her life as a student at Texas Woman’s University.
A GoFundMe page set up to bring Ms Odunsi’s body back to the UK for burial had received more than £63,000 in donations as of 3am UK time on Tuesday.
In a statement on the GoFundMe page, her sister Georgina Odunsi writes: “Tami was a beautiful soul, full of light, ambition, and kindness… She moved from the UK to the United States to pursue her dream of becoming a nurse, dedicating herself to a life of care and service.”
She continues: “Tragically, Tami was brutally murdered just days before she was set to graduate from university – an unimaginable loss at a moment that should have marked the beginning of a bright and promising future.”
For much of its history, the trade union movement’s main opponent has been the Conservative Party. But now it finds itself taking on a different type of adversary – one it might describe as a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
The Reform UK leader has been sweet-talking the trade unions, speaking their language and brandishing their leaflets in public in what appears to his critics to be a new opportunistic strategy.
Farage’s courting of union members has alarmed the movement’s leaders – so much so that Sky News understands the executive of the Trades Union Congress (TUC), which represents unions across the country, has been holding meetings to draw up a strategy on how best to combat his appeal and more broadly, the far-right.
Over the weekend, as the two main parties were processing the battering they received in the local elections largely courtesy of Farage’s party, Unison’s general secretary Christina McAnea urged members of councils now controlled by Reform to join a union.
“Unions are there to ensure no one can play fast and loose with the law,” she said, after Farage threatened to sack staff working in areas such as diversity or climate change.
‘Political fraud’
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Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the TUC, has begun to step up his criticism of the former UKIP leader – accusing him of “cosplaying as a champion of working people”.
“He is not on the side of the working people,” he tells Sky News. “He’s on the side of bad bosses who want to treat staff like disposable labour.
“Unions will continue to expose him for the political fraud he is.”
At the moment, that campaign is largely focused on highlighting Farage’s voting record – in particular his decision to oppose the Employment Rights Bill, legislation unions say they have wanted for decades.
The bill offers protection from unfair dismissal from the first day of employment and sick pay for all workers from the first day of absence, among other measures.
The TUC says the bill is incredibly popular – and not just among Labour voters.
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According to a poll it conducted of more than 21,000 people with campaign group Hope Not Hate, banning zero hours contracts is supported by more than seven in 10 UK voters – including two in three Reform voters from the 2024 election.
“People are going to find there are improvements to their life and work,” an insider tells Sky News. “We want them to understand who was for it, and who was against it.”
The TUC has also begun promoting videos on social media in which workers in the electric vehicle industry accuse Farage of threatening their jobs.
Farage’s response to the bill has been to claim that a clause within in that gives workers protection from third party harassment could herald the end of “pub banter”.
‘There has always been fellow feeling with unions’
But Gawain Towler, an ex-Reform press officer who has worked on and off for Farage for 20 years, insists his former boss isn’t against workers’ rights – he’s just opposed to Labour’s bill.
“Reform don’t see it as a workers rights’ bill – we think it takes away opportunities for work because it scares people away from employing people,” he says.
Image: Nigel Farage campaigning during the local elections in Scunthorpe.
Pic: Reuters
He believes “mass migration” is the real obstacle to better wages and job security, and argues net zero policies are “costing union members their jobs”.
The government may point to a recent study suggesting the net zero sector has grown by 10% over the past year, supporting the equivalent of 951,000 full-time jobs.
For Farage’s allies, his courting of union members is neither disingenuous nor new.
“He’s anti-union management, he’s not anti-union,” says Towler, who noted Farage’s friendship with the late union leader and Brexit advocate Bob Crow.
“Nigel has always been a free trader, but he’s never been deeply partisan, which is why he was able to start the Brexit Party. There has always been that fellow feeling with unions.”
Indeed, on one issue, a commonality is emerging between Reform and the GMB union.
While general secretary Gary Smith has criticised Farage for being “soft on Russia” and for voting against the Employment Rights Bill, there is an agreement between the pair over the impact of net zero.
Image: Members of Unite union protest at plans to close Grangemouth oil refinery.
Pic: PA
Although Unite has no common truck with Reform, it has warned there should be “no ban without a plan” when it comes to issuing new oil and gas licences.
‘Labour has one shot with workers’
For some unions, Labour’s position on certain issues has provided Reform with an opening.
Gawain Little, the general secretary of the General Federation of Trade Unions, tells Sky News the party risks leaving “space open for fakers like Farage to come along and pretend they have people’s interests at heart”.
Only a sense that austerity is over, likewise the cost of living crisis, will truly “challenge” the Reform leader, he says.
One GMB member says Farage’s strategy is “from the same playbook” as right-wing parties in Europe, such as the AfD in Germany and Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.
By “continuously legitimising” Reform by talking tough on migration, union activists who usually get the word out for Labour have been left demoralised.
Farage on the picket line?
The current distance with some unions did not start in government. It began in opposition, when Labour refused to back workers who were on strike and when the party did not endorse some candidates put forward by some of the more left-wing unions.
But so far, sources in Labour have dismissed Farage’s tactics as just words – and believe his previous anti-union rhetoric will weigh against him when he tries to court votes.
In fact, Mr Farage’s calls for the renationalisation of steel have been interpreted as him “trying to jump on the bandwagon” of Labour’s success.
However, Damian Lyons Lowe, the founder of pollster Survation, spots danger for Labour if Farage is able to successfully tilt in the direction of workers’ rights – especially if the government finds itself unable to follow.
He says taking the side of unions in an industrial dispute over pay would be an example of a classic “wedge” strategy that Farage can deploy to back Labour into a corner.
And given the government’s initial 2.8% pay offer to public sector workers is below that reportedly drawn up by the independent pay review body for NHS workers and teachers, there is the very real prospect this scenario could arise.
“It could pose a real threat to Labour,” Lyons Lowe says, with union members in “post-industrial” areas potentially receptive to a message of “protectionism, industrial revival, and national self-sufficiency”.
Could what started with Farage brandishing leaflets end up with him joining the picket line?
While one union insider doesn’t think Farage will ultimately convince union leaders, members may be tempted.
The Starmer government has “one shot to deliver for workers”, they warn.
“If they don’t, Farage and Reform are waiting in the wings.”