The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
Image: How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
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2:24
Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
Image: MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has denied that her plans to clamp down on illegal immigration are “racist” – instead describing them as a “moral mission”.
Shabana Mahmood said illegal immigration was causing “huge divides” in the UK, and added: “I do believe we need to act if we are to retain public consent for having an asylum system at all.”
Speaking on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Ms Mahmood said the government would set out changes to the asylum system in a bid to reduce the “pull factor” for those arriving in the UK via small boat.
Measures that are expected to be announced on Monday include changing the rules so that people who are granted asylum in the UK will only be allowed to stay temporarily, and will have their refugee status subject to regular review.
The statutory legal duty to provide asylum seeker support, including housing and weekly allowances, is expected to be revoked.
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Ms Mahmood said such changes were needed to fix the “broken” asylum system.
‘Moral mission’
But asked how she would respond to those who believe the government has been “panicked into a racist immigration policy”, Ms Mahmood said: “I reject that entirely.”
“I am the child of immigrants,” she said. “My parents came to this country legally, in the late 60s and early 70s. This is a moral mission for me.”
Ms Mahmood said she had observed how illegal migration had been “creating division across our country”.
“I can see that it is polarising communities across the country. I can see that it is dividing people and making them estranged from one another. I don’t want to stand back and watch that happen in my country.”
What measures is the home secretary set to announce?
Refugee status will become temporary and subject to regular review – with people facing removal as soon as their home countries are deemed safe
New safe and legal routes to be introduced for those genuinely fleeing war and persecution
Changes to the legal framework that will require judges to prioritise public safety over migrants’ rights to a family life – amid fears that Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights has been used to frustrate removals
Using facial age estimation technology, a form of AI ,to rapidly assess a person’s age in a bid to deter people who pretend to be children in an attempt to claim asylum
Capped work and study routes for refugees will also be created
Under current UK rules, people who are granted refugee status have it for five years and can then apply for indefinite leave to remain and get on a route to citizenship.
The government has already announced it will change the rules around indefinite leave to remain with a new set of requirements, including how much someone contributes to the UK and higher English language requirements.
The move to impose tighter restrictions have been interpreted as a way for Labour to counter the threat posed by Nigel Farage and Reform UK, which has laid out plans to deport people who already have ILR – which gives people the right to settle, work and study in the UK and even claim benefits, even if they do not then apply to be British citizens.
Ms Mahmood said that highlighting issues in the system did not amount to making “right-wing talking points or fake news” and that the government had a “genuine problem to fix”.
Although Ms Mahmood is seeking to emulate aspects of the Danish asylum system, she is not copying it in full.
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Inside Europe’s people-smuggling industry
In Denmark, asylum seekers’ access to public housing is restricted in certain areas where there are more than 30% of ethnic minorities, low levels of education and low incomes.
The home secretary said she was not going to “dictate where people live based on percentages”.
Asked if this was one of the measures the UK government may adopt, the home secretary said: “That’s not the sort of country that we are.”
Alongside bringing in measures to mimic Denmark, Ms Mahmood said she would also announce plans to reform the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) – aspects of which she said had been used to “frustrate the removal” of those with no right to be in the UK.
Chris Philp, the shadow home secretary, said Labour’s plans to reduce immigration were merely a “series of gimmicks” while Zia Yusuf, Reform’s head of policy, claimed Ms Mahmood would be blocked from bringing in her plans by her own MPs.
Meanwhile, the SNP have branded the government’s reforms to asylum policy “outrageous”, and have accused Labour of “dancing to Nigel Farage’s tune on immigration”.
The party’s concerns were echoed by the Greens, whose deputy leader Mothin Ali said the furore over the number of people arriving in the UK on small boats was a “very manufactured problem”.
He told Sky News: “To me, it feels like a very manufactured problem. It’s a problem that’s been created to create outrage.”
Max Wilkinson, the Liberal Democrats’ home affairs spokesperson, told Sky News it was “right” that the government was aiming to tackle illegal migration, but said some of the language used had been a “bit uncomfortable”.
Many Labour MPs have been left shellshocked after the chaotic political self-sabotage of the past week.
Bafflement, anger, disappointment, and sheer frustration are all on relatively open display at the circular firing squad which seems to have surrounded the prime minister.
The botched effort to flush out backroom plotters and force Wes Streeting to declare his loyalty ahead of the budget has instead led even previously loyal Starmerites to predict the PM could be forced out of office before the local elections in May.
“We have so many councillors coming up for election across the country,” one says, “and at the moment it looks like they’re going to be wiped out. That’s our base – we just can’t afford to lose them. I like Keir [Starmer] but there’s only a limited window left to turn things around. There’s a real question of urgency.”
Another criticised a “boys club” at No 10 who they claimed have “undermined” the prime minister and “forgotten they’re meant to be serving the British people.”
There’s clearly widespread muttering about what to do next – and even a degree of enviousness at the lack of a regicidal 1922 committee mechanism, as enjoyed by the Tories.
“Leadership speculation is destabilising,” one said. “But there’s really no obvious strategy. Andy Burnham isn’t even an MP. You’d need a stalking horse candidate and we don’t have one. There’s no 1922. It’s very messy.”
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0:54
Starmer’s faithfuls are ‘losing faith’
Others are gunning for the chancellor after months of careful pitch-rolling for manifesto-breaching tax rises in the budget were ripped up overnight.
“Her career is toast,” one told me. “Rachel has just lost all credibility. She screwed up on the manifesto. She screwed up on the last two fiscal events, costing the party huge amounts of support and leaving the economy stagnating.
“Having now walked everyone up the mountain of tax rises and made us vote to support them on the opposition day debate two days ago, she’s now worried her job is at risk and has bottled it.
“Talk to any major business or investor and they are holding off investing in the UK until it is clear what the UK’s tax policy is going to be, putting us in a situation where the chancellor is going to have to go through this all over again in six months – which just means no real economic growth for another six months.”
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After less than 18 months in office, the government is stuck in a political morass largely of its own making.
Treasury sources have belatedly argued that the chancellor’s pre-budget change of heart on income tax is down to better-than-expected economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
That should be a cause of celebration. The question is whether she and the PM are now too damaged to make that case to the country – and rescue their benighted prospects.
Lainie Williams was pronounced dead at the scene, while a second, a 38-year-old woman, who also sustained injuries, has been discharged from hospital.
Gwent Police said 18-year-old Cameron Cheng, a British national from Newbridge, Caerphilly, has also been charged with possession of a bladed article in a public place.
He is remanded to appear before Newport Magistrates’ Court on 17 November.
Assistant Chief Constable Vicki Townsend said: “We understand that there has been a great deal of interest in this investigation.
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“It is vital that people consider how their language, especially comments made online, could affect our ability to bring anyone found to have committed a criminal offence to justice.
“Even though we’ve reached this significant development in the investigation, our enquiries continue so it is likely that residents will continue to see officers in the area.
“So if anyone has any information, please speak to our officers or contact us in the usual way.”