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The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

Politics latest: Starmer blames Tories for ‘open borders’

It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
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How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
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MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

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Starmer suspends four Labour MPs for breaches of party discipline

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Starmer suspends four Labour MPs for breaches of party discipline

Sir Keir Starmer has suspended four MPs for repeated breaches of party discipline.

Brian Leishman, Chris Hinchliff, Neil Duncan-Jordan and Rachael Maskell have lost the whip, meaning they are no longer part of Labour’s parliamentary party and will sit as independent MPs.

The suspension is indefinite pending a review.

Three other MPs have had their trade envoy roles removed: Rosena Allin Khan, Bell Ribeiro-Addy and Mohammed Yasin.

Politics latest: Suspended MPs defend their voting record

All seven had voted against the government’s welfare reforms earlier this month. However, it is understood this is not the only reason behind the decision, with sources citing “repeated breaches of party discipline”.

More than 100 MPs had initially rebelled against the plan to cut personal independent payments (PIP). Ultimately, 47 voted against the bill’s third reading, after it was watered down significantly in the face of defeat.

Ms Maskell was one of the lead rebels in the welfare revolt, and has more recently called for a wealth tax to fund the U-turn.

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‘There are lines I will not cross’

The York Central MP has spoken out against the government on a number of other occasions since the election, including on winter fuel and cuts to overseas aid.

Confirming the suspension, Ms Maskell told Sky News that she “doesn’t see herself as a rebel” but “somebody that is prepared to fulfil (her) role here of holding the executive to account and speaking truth to power”.

She stopped short of criticising the decision, saying: “I hold my hand out to the prime minister and hope he takes that and wants to reach back because I think it’s really important that we work together.”

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. File pic: PA
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File pic: PA

Ms Maskell was first elected in 2015, while the other suspended MPs were newly elected last year.

Mr Hinchliff, the MP for North East Hertfordshire, has proposed a series of amendments to the flagship planning and infrastructure bill criticising the government’s approach.

Mr Duncan-Jordan, the MP for Poole, led a rebellion against the cut to the winter fuel payments while Alloa and Grangemouth MP Mr Leishman has been critical of the government’s position on Gaza.

Suspended Labour MPs clearly hit a nerve with Starmer


Tamara Cohen

Tamara Cohen

Political correspondent

@tamcohen

After a tricky few weeks for the government, in which backbenchers overturned plans to cut back welfare spending, now a heavy hand to get the party into line.

All four suspended MPs appear to be surprised – and upset.

Three more have lost plum roles as trade envoys – all on the left of the party.

All were active in the rebellion against the government’s welfare reforms, and voted against the changes even after a series of U-turns – but were among 47 Labour MPs who did so.

When MPs were told after the welfare vote that Number 10 was “fully committed to engaging with parliamentarians”, this was not what they were expecting.

We’re told the reasons for these particular suspensions go wider – over “persistent breaches of party discipline” – although most are not high profile.

In the scheme of things, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell rebelled against the Labour whip hundreds of times under New Labour, without being suspended.

But these MPs’ pointed criticism of the Starmer strategy has clearly hit a nerve.

Read Tamara’s analysis in full here

‘Couldn’t support making people poorer’

Mr Duncan-Jordan told Sky News that he understood speaking out against benefit cuts would “come at a cost” but said he “couldn’t support making disabled people poorer”.

Mr Leishman echoed that sentiment, saying: “I firmly believe that it is not my duty as an MP to make people poorer, especially those that have suffered because of austerity and its dire consequences.”

Both said they remain committed to the Labour Party and its values, suggesting they have no plans to join the new party being set up by former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and ousted MP Zarah Sultana.

Similarly Mr Hinchliff said in a brief statement: “I remain proud to have been elected as a Labour MP and I hope in time to return to the Labour benches.”

The suspensions will be seen as an attempt to restore discipline ahead of the summer recess following a number of rebellions that has forced the government into U-turns.

Read more:
Who are the suspended Labour MPs?

As well as watering down the welfare bill, some cuts to the winter fuel payment have been reversed, leaving Chancellor Rachel Reeves with a fiscal blackhole to fill.

However the move risks creating further divisions with a number of Labour MPs criticising the decision.

Starmer ‘rolling out the carpet to Reform’

Ian Byrne, Labour MP for Liverpool West Derby, said he was “appalled” by the suspensions as he and 44 others voted against welfare cuts.

He said this isn’t the first time the Starmer leadership has “punished MPs for standing up for what’s right”, as he and six others were suspended last year for voting against the two-child benefit cap.

“These decisions don’t show strength. They are damaging Labour’s support and risk rolling out the red carpet for Reform,” he added.

Richard Burgon, who was also temporarily suspended in the two-child benefit cap revolt, said he had hoped the leadership would take a different approach to backbenchers.

“Sadly, it isn’t yet doing so. To help stop a Reform government, it really must do so,” he said.

Jon Trickett, Labour MP for Normanton and Hemsworth, said “it’s not a sin to stand up for the poor and disabled”, adding: “Solidarity with the suspended four.”

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Why suspended Labour MPs clearly hit a nerve with Starmer

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Why suspended Labour MPs clearly hit a nerve with Starmer

After a tricky few weeks for the government, in which backbenchers overturned plans to cut back welfare spending, now a heavy hand to get the party into line.

Three newly-elected MPs, Neil Duncan-Jordan, MP for Poole, Brian Leishman, MP for the new Alloa and Grangemouth constituency, and Chris Hinchcliff, for North East Herefordshire, have all had the whip suspended.

Rachael Maskell, MP for York Central, who was first elected a decade ago, is the fourth.

Politics latest: Labour MP ‘appalled’ after Starmer suspends rebels

They will all sit as independent MPs and will not be allowed to stand for Labour at the next election, unless readmitted. All appear to be surprised – and upset.

Three more have lost plum roles as trade enjoys – Dr Rosena Allin-Khan, Bell Ribeiro-Addy and Mohammed Yasin, all on the left of the party.

All were active in the rebellion against the government’s welfare reforms, and voted against the changes even after a series of U-turns – but were among 47 Labour MPs who did so.

When MPs were told after the welfare vote that Number 10 was “fully committed to engaging with parliamentarians”, this was not what they were expecting.

We’re told the reasons for these particular suspensions go wider – over “persistent breaches of party discipline” – although most are not high profile.

In the scheme of things, Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell rebelled against the Labour whip hundreds of times under New Labour, without being suspended.

But these MPs’ pointed criticism of the Starmer strategy has clearly hit a nerve.

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Suspended MP: ‘There are lines I will not cross’

Maskell – who was referred to, jokingly, in the House of Commons earlier this month by Tory MP Danny Kruger as “the real prime minister” – led the rebellion against cuts to winter fuel allowance which triggered a U-turn which she said would still leave pensioners in fuel poverty.

There was an attack on the government’s values. Duncan-Jordan, a trade unionist who won the Poole seat by just 18 votes, led the welfare rebellion, telling Sky News the proposed cutbacks were “not a very Labour thing to do”.

Hinchliff, who has also opposed the government’s housebuilding strategy and plans to expand Luton airport,had told his local paper he was willing to lose the whip over welfare cuts if necessary. He also has a marginal seat, won by fewer than 2,000 votes.

Read more:
Who are the suspended Labour MPs?

Leishman, a former pro golfer, has also been vocal about government plans to close the refinery in his Grangemouth constituency after promising to try and make it viable. They are MPs who the leadership fear are going for broke – and that’s concerning as more tough decisions on spending are likely to come.

But after a poorly-handled welfare vote, in which MPs seemed to be in the driving seat forcing changes, will this instil a sense of discipline over the summer break?

While some MPs will see this as a deterrent to rebellion, for those whose chances of re-election are small, it may continue to be seen as a price worth paying.

To other Labour MPs, the move is confusing and may be counter-productive. One Labour MP on the left told me: “So, we’re suspending people for winning an argument with the government?”

Another, in the centre, feared it looked divisive, saying: “We need to go into the summer focused on the opposition – not involved in our melodramas.”

Number 10 wants to show rebelling comes at a price – but many Labour MPs with concerns about their political direction will want to know the prime minister is planning to listen to concerns before it gets to that point.

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‘Betrayed’ Afghan interpreter says family ‘waiting for death’ under Taliban after UK military data breach

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'Betrayed' Afghan interpreter says family 'waiting for death' under Taliban after UK military data breach

An Afghan interpreter who worked with the British military has told Sky News he feels “betrayed by the British government” after a massive data breach saw his personal details revealed.

Ali, whose name has been changed to protect his identity, had long suspected his details had been shared with the Taliban – but found out just yesterday that he was a victim of the breach three years ago.

He is now even more fearful for the lives of family members still in Afghanistan, who are already in hiding from the Taliban.

Ali worked alongside British soldiers in Helmand Province to help them speak with Afghan people. His job also involved listening in on Taliban radio communications and translating them for the British forces.

“The Taliban called us the British eyes,” he told Sky News. “Because they think if we are not on the ground with them, the British force cannot do anything.

“They know that you’re listening to their chatting and the British forces are acting according to our translation. We were always the first target and our job was always full of risk.”

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Here’s what the public couldn’t know until now.

After the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021, Ali – who had already suffered injuries after the Taliban targeted him with a car bomb – was brought to the UK through the British government’s Afghan Resettlement Programme (ARP) for his own protection.

Once in the UK, he began to suspect his data had been leaked after his father “died because the Taliban took him into custody and beat him”.

Ali contacted the Ministry of Defence to raise concerns over his personal information last year, and stated in an email that he was “terrified”, adding: “I beg of you, do not pass this information to anyone.”

“They just ignored what I told them and they never replied,” he said.

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Afghans being relocated after data breach

‘The Taliban want me’

Following confirmation that the data breach did take place, Ali is even more scared for the lives of his family members who have already been in hiding from the Taliban for around five months.

I’m feeling terrible and frustrated,” he said. “My family’s details have been shared with the Taliban intelligence forces and now they are looking for them.

“Every day, every single minute, my family’s waiting for their death, because if anyone comes to knock the door, they think that that is the Taliban.”

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Ali has twice applied for his family to be relocated to the UK but both applications have been rejected. He is now renewing his call for the British government to move his loved ones.

“I have carried the body of the British soldier,” he said. “I feel betrayed by the British government. They should relocate my family to a safe place.”

Read more:
Afghan man pleads for King’s help after data leak
How Afghan data breach unfolded
‘Serious questions to answer’ over data breach, says PM

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Ali has decided he will return to his homeland to help his family if they are not granted legal passage to the UK.

“If we don’t win [the case], I have decided I want to go back to Afghanistan and finish this,” he said. “The Taliban want me. If the British government can’t save my family, then I have this one responsibility to go and save them.

“I don’t want my family being killed for something they didn’t do.”

Sky News has contacted the Ministry of Defence for comment.

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