The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
Image: How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
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2:24
Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
Image: MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Image: Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
A former Labour MP who quit the party over Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership has welcomed the landmark Supreme Court ruling on the definition of a woman as a “victory for feminists”.
Rosie Duffield, now the independent MP for Canterbury, said the judgment helped resolve the “lack of clarity” that has existed in the politics around the issue “for years”.
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2:19
How do you define a woman in law?
The judges were asked to rule on how “sex” is defined in the 2010 Equality Act – whether that means biological sex or “certificated” sex, as legally defined by the 2004 Gender Recognition Act.
Their unanimous decision was that the definition of a “woman” and “sex” in the Equality Act 2010 refers to “a biological woman and biological sex”.
Asked what she made about comments by fellow independent MP John McDonnell – who said the court “failed to hear the voice of a single trans person” and that the decision “lacked humanity and fairness” as a result, she said: “This ruling doesn’t affect trans people in the slightest.
“It’s about women’s rights – women’s rights to single sex spaces, women’s rights, not to be discriminated against.
“It literally doesn’t change a single thing for trans rights and that lack of understanding from a senior politician about the law is a bit worrying, actually.”
However, Maggie Chapman, a Scottish Green MSP, disagreed with Ms Duffield and said she was “concerned” about the impact the ruling would have on trans people “and for the services and facilities they have been using and have had access to for decades now”.
Image: Susan Smith and Marion Calder, directors of For Women Scotland celebrate after the ruling. Pic: Reuters
“One of the grave concerns that we have with this ruling is that it will embolden people to challenge trans people who have every right to access services,” she said.
“We know that over the last few years… their [trans people’s] lives have become increasingly difficult, they have been blocked from accessing services they need.”
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2:12
‘Today’s ruling only stokes the culture war further’
Delivering the ruling at the London court on Wednesday, Lord Hodge said: “But we counsel against reading this judgment as a triumph of one or more groups in our society at the expense of another. It is not.
Image: Campaigners celebrate outside the Supreme Court. Pic: PA
“The Equality Act 2010 gives transgender people protection, not only against discrimination through the protected characteristic of gender reassignment, but also against direct discrimination, indirect discrimination and harassment in substance in their acquired gender.
“This is the application of the principle of discrimination by association. Those statutory protections are available to transgender people, whether or not they possess a gender recognition certificate.”
Asked whether she believed the judgment could “draw a line” under the culture war, Ms Chapman told Fortescue: “Today’s judgment only stokes that culture war further.”
And she said that while Lord Hodge was correct to say there were protections in law for trans people in the 2020 Equality Act, the judgment “doesn’t prevent things happening”.
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“It may offer protections once bad things have happened, once harassment, once discrimination, once bigotry, once assaults have happened,” she said.
She also warned some groups “aren’t going to be satisfied with today’s ruling”.
“We know that there are individuals and there are groups who actually want to roll back even further – they want to get rid of the Gender Recognition Act from 2004,” she said.
“I think today’s ruling just emboldens those views.”
Arsenal have reached the semi-finals of the Champions League after a dramatic victory over holders Real Madrid in Spain.
The north London side, who became the first English team to win twice at the Bernabeu following their triumph there 19 years ago, will face Paris Saint-Germain in the last four after the French side beat Aston Villa on Tuesday.
It is the third time the Gunners have made it through to the semis of the top club football tournament in Europe, and the first since 2009.
Arsenal went into the second leg of their quarter-final clash on Wednesday with a 3-0 lead.
Backed by a raucous home crowd, Madrid tried to get off to a strong start and Kylian Mbappe scored after two minutes. However, the goal was disallowed for a clear offside.
Arsenal had the chance to go ahead in the 13th minute but winger Bukayo Saka missed a penalty.
The Spanish hosts were awarded a penalty of their own about 10 minutes later when Mbappe stumbled under pressure from Declan Rice in the box – but the decision was overturned by VAR.
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Saka atoned for his tepid penalty as he chipped the ball past Madrid’s keeper Thibaut Courtois when put through on goal by auxiliary striker Mikel Merino in the 65th minute.
But Arsenal were pegged back just two minutes later as Vinicius Junior caught William Saliba dawdling on the ball and fired Real Madrid level.
Arsenal’s resolute defending kept the home side at bay until Gabriel Martinelli made a late break through the home side’s defence to put his side 2-1 ahead three minutes into injury time, as the Gunners made it 5-1 on aggregate.
Image: (L-R) Arsenal’s Declan Rice and Mikel Merino celebrate after the defeat against Real Madrid. Pic: AP
‘We knew we were going to win’, says Rice
Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice has insisted his team are intent on winning the Champions League after their victory in Madrid.
Speaking to TNT Sport, Rice, who was named player of the match, said: “It’s such a special night, a historic one for the club. We have the objective of playing the best and winning the competition.
“We had so much belief and confidence from that first leg and came here to win the game. We knew we were going to suffer but we knew we were going to win. We had it in our minds, then we did it [in] real life. What a night.
“I knew when I signed, this club was on an upward trajectory. It’s been tough in the Premier League but in this competition we’ve done amazingly well.
“It’s PSG next, who are an amazing team.”
‘We have to be very proud of ourselves’, says Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta told TNT Sport: “One of the best nights in my football career.
“We played against a team with the biggest history.
“To be able to win the tie in the manner we have done, I think we have to be very proud of ourselves.”
He added: “The history we have in this competition is so short. The third time in our history of what we have just done and we have to build on that. All this experience is going to help us, for sure.”
Real Madrid were seeking their third Champions League title in four seasons.
Mbappe twisted ankle
Their forward Mbappe twisted his right ankle during the game and was jeered by part of the crowd when his substitution was announced after a lacklustre performance.
The French star, who is still looking for his first Champions League title, was replaced by Brahim Diaz in the 75th minute following his injury. He was able to walk off the pitch by himself, but was limping slightly.
The other semi-final will be between Barcelona and Inter Milan.
The first legs are set to be played on 29 and 30 April, with the second legs on 6 and 7 May.
After a dramatic weekend with ministers passing legislation to wrest control of British Steel from its Chinese owners, Labour’s China policy is under the spotlight.
Sir Keir Starmer’s government came in, promising a “strategic and long term” relationship with Beijing, after years of “inconsistency” under the Conservatives.
Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds appeared to turn the tables this weekend, suggesting Chinese parent company Jingye had neglected or even sabotaged British Steel after buying it five years ago. He told Sky News he would not personally “bring a Chinese company into our steel sector”.
He changed his tune on Tuesday, while visiting Scunthorpe to oversee the delivery of a shipment of materials, saying the row was just with one company.
It’s now emerged he is expected to travel to China later this year, to restart a joint economic and trade commission which has been on ice since 2018.
But this is no return to the golden age of some years back.
Tensions in government over China may well emerge in the coming months – as the Treasury’s drive for investment and growth jars with concerns over security.
Ministers are discussing whether parts of the Chinese state should be designated a national security threat, under new rules on foreign influence, due to come in this summer.
Russia and Iran will be covered by the enhanced tier of the foreign influence registration scheme – but ministers are yet to say anything about China.
Applying it even in a limited way would be controversial with large companies and within government – seen as a barrier to doing business.
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0:52
Reynolds rows back on China comments
The Treasury’s view is that engagement with the world’s second largest economy is essential to economic growth.
Ed Miliband’s energy department is pursuing big clean energy projects, many of them backed by Chinese investment.
Wholly state-owned companies already own stakes in Heathrow Airport and Thames Water.
While Huawei was dramatically banned from the UK’s 5G network back in 2020, Chinese companies fund nuclear power, and the National Grid network.
Senior Conservatives, some sanctioned by the Chinese government, have been vocal about what they see as national security risks from this approach.
A report by parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee in 2023 said China had penetrated “every sector” of the UK economy. It warned that “Chinese money was readily accepted by HM Government with few questions asked”.
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Some Labour MPs view this with growing concern. One senior MP, speaking privately, said: “The problem is it costs billions of pounds to build reservoirs and nuclear reactors, and we’re not raising that from taxes, so China is where we get that investment.
“There are significant concerns in the party – whether it’s about the security of critical sectors, espionage, or concerns about the use of slave labour in their products.”
Liam Byrne, the Labour chair of the business and trade committee, said there needed to be clearer ground rules on Chinese investment.
“If we want to stay ahead of our adversaries, we’ve got to make sure that we’re not handing the most advanced technology to our adversaries,” he said.
“We need a clear definition of economic security from the government, we need a clear threat assessment, and we need a clear way in which business and government are going to work hand in hand to keep our country safe in what are now very different and more dangerous times.”
After a rebuke from the Chinese embassy, which defended the actions of Jingye, the government insists nothing has changed in the relationship.
China is now embroiled in a trade war with the US, and the global trade rules are changing.
The tension emerging is whether economic growth overrides security concerns.