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The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

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It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
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How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
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MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax hikes

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Chancellor Rachel Reeves refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax hikes

Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out breaking her manifesto pledge not to raise certain taxes, as she lays the groundwork ahead of the budget later this month.

Asked directly by our political editor Beth Rigby if she stands by her promises not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT, the chancellor declined to do so.

She told Rigby: “Your viewers can see the challenges that we face, the challenges that are on [sic] a global nature. And they can also see the challenges in the long-term performance of our economy.”

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She went on: “As chancellor, I have to face the world as it is, not the world as I want it to be. And when challenges come our way, the only question is how to respond to them, not whether to respond or not.

“As I respond at the budget on 26 November, my focus will be on getting NHS waiting lists down, getting the cost of living down and also getting the national debt down.”

‘Each of us must do our bit’

More on Budget 2025

Ms Reeves’s comments to Rigby came after a highly unusual pre-budget speech in Downing Street in which she set out the scale of the international and domestic “challenges” facing the government.

What did Labour promise in their manifesto?

Rachel Reeves has refused to say whether she will hike taxes, but what exactly was her manifesto commitment last year?

She said: “We will ensure taxes on working people are kept as low as possible.

“Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.”

She also hinted at tax rises, saying: “If we are to build the future of Britain together, each of us must do our bit for the security of our country and the brightness of its future.”

Despite her promise that last year’s budget – which was the biggest tax-raising fiscal event since 1993 – was a “once in a parliament event,” the chancellor said that in the past year, “the world has thrown even more challenges our way,” pointing to “the continual threat of tariffs” from the United States, inflation that has been “too slow to come down,” “volatile” supply chains leading to higher prices, and the high cost of government borrowing.

She also put the blame squarely on previous Tory governments, accusing them of “years of economic mismanagement” that has “limited our country’s potential,” and said past administrations prioritised “political convenience” over “economic imperative”.

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Sky’s Beth Rigby said there will be ‘almighty backlash’ after budget, as chancellor failed to rule out breaking tax pledges.

Ms Reeves painted a picture of devastation following the years of austerity in the wake of the financial crisis, “instability and indecision” after that, and then the consequences of what she called “a rushed and ill-conceived Brexit”.

“This isn’t about re-litigating old choices – it’s about being honest with the people, about the consequences that those choices have had,” she said.

‘I don’t expect anyone to be satisfied with growth so far’

The chancellor defended her personal record in office so far, saying interest rates and NHS waiting lists have fallen, while investment in the UK is rising, and added: “Our growth was the fastest in the G7 in the first half of this year. I don’t expect anyone to be satisfied with growth of 1%. I am not, and I know that there is more to do.”

Amid that backdrop, Ms Reeves set out her three priorities for the budget: “Protecting our NHS, reducing our national debt, and improving the cost of living.”

Cutting inflation will also be a key aim in her announcements later this month, and “creating the conditions that [see] interest rate cuts to support economic growth and improve the cost of living”.

She rejected calls from some Labour MPs to relax her fiscal rules, reiterating that they are “ironclad,” and arguing that the national debt – which stands at £2.6trn, or 94% of GDP – must come down in order to reduce the cost of government borrowing and spend less public money on interest payments to invest in “the public services essential to both a decent society and a strong economy”.

She also put them on notice that cuts to welfare remain on the government’s agenda, despite its humiliating U-turn on cuts to personal independence payments for disabled people earlier this year, saying: “There is nothing progressive about refusing to reform a system that is leaving one in eight young people out of education or employment.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a highly unusual pre-budget speech from Downing Street. Pic: PA
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered a highly unusual pre-budget speech from Downing Street. Pic: PA

And the chancellor had a few words for her political opponents, saying the Tories’ plan for £47bn in cuts would have “devastating consequences for our public services,” and mocked the Reform UK leadership of Kent County Council for exploring local tax rises instead of cuts, as promised.

Concluding her speech, Ms Reeves vowed not to “repeat those mistakes” of the past by backtracking on investments, and said: “We were elected to break with the cycle of decline, and this government is determined to see that through.”

‘Reeves made all the wrong choices’

In response to her speech, Conservative shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride wrote on X that “all she’s done is confirm the fears of households and businesses – that tax rises are coming”.

He wrote: “The chancellor claims she fixed the public finances last year. If that was true, she would not be rolling the pitch for more tax rises and broken promises. The reality is, she fiddled the fiscal rules so she could borrow hundreds of billions more.

“Every time the numbers don’t add up, Reeves blames someone else. But this is about choices – and she made all the wrong ones. If Rachel Reeves had the backbone to get control of government spending – including the welfare bill – she wouldn’t need to raise taxes.”

He called for her to resign if she raises taxes.

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Train company LNER ‘extremely proud’ of rail worker in critical condition after mass stabbing as family call him ‘hero’

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Train company LNER 'extremely proud' of rail worker in critical condition after mass stabbing as family call him 'hero'

The “extraordinary bravery” of the LNER worker who intervened during the train mass stabbing attack on Saturday has been hailed by his company.

Samir Zitouni, 48, also known as Sam, was last night fighting for his life after trying to stop a knife attacker who targeted passengers on a busy train.

He was injured while trying to protect passengers during the mass stabbing on Saturday’s 6.25pm LNER service from Doncaster to London King’s Cross.

Deputy Chief Constable of British Transport Police (BTP), Stuart Cundy, said CCTV from the train showed the man’s actions “were nothing short of heroic and undoubtedly saved people’s lives”.

The train operator said he has been a “valued member” of staff for over 20 years, working on board as a customer experience host.

David Horne, managing director at LNER, said: “In a moment of crisis, Sam did not hesitate as he stepped forward to protect those around him.

“His actions were incredibly brave, and we are so proud of him, and of all our colleagues who acted with such courage that evening. Our thoughts and prayers remain with Sam and his family. We will continue to support them and wish him a full and speedy recovery.”

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His family also shared a message, thanking those who had shown the “overwhelming support” they have received and calling him a “hero”.

They said: “We have been deeply touched by the outpouring of love and kindness shown to Sam, and by the many well wishes for his recovery.

“The care provided by the hospital and the support from his colleagues at LNER has been incredible. We are immensely proud of Sam and his courage. The police called him a hero on Saturday evening, but to us – he’s always been a hero.”

Forensic investigators at Huntingdon train station in Cambridgeshire
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Forensic investigators at Huntingdon train station in Cambridgeshire

Police investigation

A man, Anthony Williams, 32, of no fixed abode, has been charged with 11 counts of attempted murder over the mass stabbing and another attack earlier at a London station.

British Transport Police (BTP) said Williams had been charged with attempted murder and possession of a bladed article in connection with an incident on a Dockland Light Railway train in the early hours of 1 November.

A victim suffered facial injuries after being attacked with a knife on a train at Pontoon Dock station, the force added.

Read more:
Train stabbing victim ‘didn’t have much choice’ but to fight back
Police reviewing three further incidents after train knife attack

The suspect, later identified as Williams, had left the location before police arrived.

Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, said police in Cambridgeshire were investigating if the same man committed “further offences” before.

Officers are looking into incidents on Friday and Saturday.

Williams was remanded in custody on Monday when he appeared at Peterborough Magistrates’ Court.

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How frontline workers deal with trauma of young driver deaths

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How frontline workers deal with trauma of young driver deaths

We’re sat in a silent, empty, cardiac treatment room – on the other side of the door, you can hear the bustle of the largest A&E and major trauma ward in Devon.

Ambulances arrive, patients are wheeled on stretchers, families wait pensively.

Consultant Dr Anne Hicks, from Derriford Hospital in Plymouth, is with me – she’s worked in emergency care for more than 30 years.

There is a long pause when I ask what the hardest part of her job is.

“I don’t think it’s looking after the trauma patients,” she says.

“The toughest part is talking to the relatives. I get huge satisfaction from doing it well – but I can remember the face of every relative I think I’ve ever spoken to.”

She, like many of her colleagues, has had to tell the parents of teenagers killed in car crashes the worst news.

“The tragedy is nothing to what that parent feels when you tell them their child has gone. That their child has died.”

Consultant Dr Anne Hicks
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Consultant Dr Anne Hicks

This is the so-called ripple effect – so many lives impacted by deaths on our roads, beyond the immediate family.

Sky News has spent the last year reporting on a long-running campaign – led by grieving families – to get the government to toughen rules on new young drivers within its Road Safety Strategy, which is set to be announced soon.

But as well as relatives, there is a whole other group impacted by deaths on Britain’s roads.

Emergency service workers are often the first to arrive at some of the most horrific and distressing scenes.

We’ve been given access inside Derriford Hospital in Plymouth and Devon Air Ambulance – to understand how frontline workers deal with such trauma.

Grant Thompson is a paramedic with the air ambulance team based at Exeter Airport. We’re inside the medical stockroom, used to refill the chopper after each callout.

He remembers a callout last summer.

‘A shock to the system’

Grant Thompson, a paramedic with the air ambulance team based at Exeter Airport
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Grant Thompson, a paramedic with the air ambulance team based at Exeter Airport

“It was one of those jobs when you’re not expecting, I suppose, what you’re going to see,” he says.

“We started realising this was going to be a bad job. You started thinking, ‘how are we going to split up as a team?’ We got there reasonably quickly and three of these young people actually died at the scene, which was quite difficult.

“It was trying to give the best care you can for everybody – they were quite severely injured. It’s always a shock to the system when you get to those jobs. It can be tricky. It can be tricky.”

Those three young deaths were among more than 1,600 on Britain’s roads last year – with nearly 130,000 injured.

Some 22% of those fatalities involved a young person behind the wheel.

New data released by the Department for Transport also shows male drivers aged 17-24 are four times more likely to be killed or seriously injured than all drivers aged over 25.

Read more from Sky News:
PM and chancellor hit at tax rises
The underground squad with lives in their hands

Death is one thing, life-changing injuries another.

Inside the major trauma unit at Derriford, ward manager Larissa Heard says she’s seen the “whole scale” of reaction.

“Some patients are amazingly resilient and take it really well – for others it is absolutely life-changing, and they are hysterical,” she says.

“This could be the first time that they’re actually seeing their injuries in full light. It might be the first time that they’re actually aware they’ve had an amputation or are actually paralysed.

“So having to manage that for us can be really hard.”

Devon air ambulance workers
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Devon air ambulance workers

‘It’s only afterwards the impact hits you’

As we chat, an 18-year-old who has lost a leg in a car crash pushes himself past us; staff say there are always victims of RTCs on the ward.

Treating the physical and mental scars of collisions is, of course, their job.

Like all those in the NHS, that responsibility comes first.

“I don’t think you feel it until you get the lovely thank-you cards at the end, and you find out the patients you looked after knew your name,” says Catie Crisp, a trainee advanced clinical practitioner.

“It’s only afterwards the impact hits you: ‘I can take a deep breath now, that was really hard, that was really emotional.'”

Catie Crisp, a trainee advanced clinical practitioner
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Catie Crisp, a trainee advanced clinical practitioner

A possible solution?

Like the families who lost children, emergency workers would welcome any measure that could reduce the number of young people injured and killed.

Graduated driving licences (GDLs) place restrictions on new young drivers in the first few months of driving, such as a ban on driving late at night and with a car full of people – factors so often part of fatal accidents.

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What are graduated driving licences?

In Canada, one of the first countries to introduce GDLs, it takes at least 20 months to gain a full driving licence, with learners earning certain freedoms in stages. Deaths among young drivers are down 83% in the five years to 2022, compared to the same period before GDLs were brought in.

For emergency consultant Dr Tim Nutbeam, introducing a similar scheme would be a step in the right direction:

“I believe in evidence informed practice and for me the evidence from Canada, from other parts of the world is really strong. I believe GDL saves lives.

“I’ve got four children. One of them in a couple of years will be driving. I as a parent will be making sure a similar structure to GDL is in place to try to keep her safe.”

Dr Tim Nutbeam
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Dr Tim Nutbeam

But the Department for Transport says it is not considering them.

A spokesperson told Sky News: “Every death on our roads is a tragedy and our thoughts are with everyone who has lost a loved one in this way.

“Whilst we are not considering graduated driving licences, we absolutely recognise that young people are disproportionately victims of tragic incidents on our roads and continue to tackle this through our THINK! campaign.

“We are considering other measures to address this problem and protect young drivers, as part of our upcoming strategy for road safety – the first in over a decade.”

‘They need to reconsider’

For those representing emergency service workers, the government’s position must change.

“In my view, the evidence is overwhelming that they need to reconsider it,” says Philip Secombe – the joint lead on road safety for the Association of Police and Crime Commissioners.

“We need to look at not restricting our young drivers, but actually safeguarding them, and their passengers and other road users.”

Back at the Devon Air Ambulance base, Grant explains how the ripple effect can spread far and wide.

“The loss of any life is tragic and affects a lot of people and clinicians as well, but I think when there’s a young person who survives as well, they’ve got to walk with that for the rest of their lives, 60 odd years or whatever it’ll be, that you’ve got to carry that with you – and more than likely it’d be one of your friends.

“I just hope that shapes people’s attitudes to save driving. You know, these are my mates, my best mates in the world, in my car, I need to adapt my driving to come out safe of this.”

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