Assisted dying bill: This is how MPs plan to vote
The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
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It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
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Sky News has contacted MPs to find out how many are likely to vote on assisted dying.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
Read more on assisted dying:
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Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home
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How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?
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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
It has become almost impossible to book a driving test on the government website due to bots on the booking system, driving instructors have told Sky News.
The only official way to book a practical car driving test is through the Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA) website.
New test slots are released by the DVSA at 6am every Monday, but “no matter how fast I am, there’s nothing available”, said Aman Sanghera, a driving instructor based in west London.
Driving instructor Aman Sanghera wants ‘stronger oversight and regulation’ from the DVSA
When asked about the cause, she said: “All of the tests are taken by bots, they are definitely taking over the booking system.”
In this context, bots are automated software designed to mimic human behaviour and programmed to carry out actions like searching for and reserving driving test appointments on the official government website much faster than humans can.
Individuals and companies use bots to block-book driving test slots and then resell them at a profit, which is not illegal, although it is a violation of the DVSA’s terms of use.
Recent data shows the DVSA has closed over 800 business accounts for misuse of its booking service in the past two years.
It takes five months on average for a test in England – unless you pay a middleman
Ms Sanghera, who has been in the trade for over a decade, said the usage of bots started a few months ago “but is now getting out of hand”.
She said: “I’ve actually heard about driving instructors being approached by certain individuals to then take on their IDs to log in and to run this scam.
“I struggle to actually book a test for my students, which means that by the time my students are logging in, they’ve got no chance.”
Driving instructors can book driving tests on behalf of their pupils using a dedicated service, allowing them to bypass the general queue and potentially secure test slots more efficiently.
As a result, Ms Sanghera said students are “forced to go to third-party sites” to secure “the same test dates which are then available later on during the day at a premium rate of like £200-£300”.
She added: “Given that the DVSA is a government-regulated body, one would expect a more robust and fair system to ensure affordability and accessibility for all candidates.”
The long waiting lists and high demand for tests has led some to take advantage
The standard test fee is £62, offered by the DVSA, which is responsible for carrying out driving tests in Great Britain.
The biggest concern for the driving instructors Sky News has spoken to, including Ms Sanghera, is “the fact that students are being exploited”.
When Ahmed Ali struggled to find a practical test on the DVSA website, he turned to third-party sites – a decision he now regrets.
Ahmed Ali started looking for a test two years ago
He said: “I’ve spent about £650 on driving tests, and I’ve sat zero tests. I’ve given all this money to third-parties that look for cancellations so they could try to get you a faster test.”
But the 20-year-old said that despite making the payments, he “didn’t hear back from them again”, which is illegal.
“When you lose all that money, you get to a point where you can’t really afford to find another driving test,” he said.
“I just feel very frustrated because I’ve spent all this money, all this time into driving, and I haven’t sat a single driving test.”
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The DVSA urged applicants to only book tests via the official Gov.uk website and told Sky News it “deploys enhanced bot protection to help stop automated systems from buying up tests unfairly”.
“These applications, however, are constantly evolving and changing, and DVSA’s work on this is ongoing,” it said.
From Tuesday, the DVSA will require learner drivers to provide 10 full working days’ notice to change or cancel their car driving test without losing the test fee, up from the current three days.
Also part of the DVSA’s crackdown to reduce waiting times is a consultation expected to launch in spring 2025 “to streamline the driving test booking process” and “tighten terms and conditions”.
The last blast furnaces left operating in Britain could see their fate sealed within days, after their Chinese owners took the decision to cut off the crucial supply of ingredients keeping them running.
Jingye, the owner of British Steel in Scunthorpe, has, according to union representatives, cancelled future orders for the iron ore, coal and other raw materials needed to keep the furnaces running.
The upshot is that they may have to close next month – even sooner than the earliest date suggested for its closure.
Read more: Thousands of jobs at risk as British Steel consults unions over closure
The fate of the blast furnaces – the last two domestic sources of virgin steel, made from iron ore rather than recycled – is likely to be determined in a matter of days, with the Department for Business and Trade now actively pondering nationalisation.
The upshot is that even as Britain contends with a trade war across the Atlantic, it is now working against the clock to secure the future of steelmaking at Scunthorpe.
The talks between the government and Jingye broke down last week after the Chinese company, which bought British Steel out of receivership in 2020, rejected a £500m offer of public money to replace the existing furnaces with electric arc furnaces.
The sum is the same one it offered to Tata Steel, which has shut down the other remaining UK blast furnaces in Port Talbot and is planning to build electric furnaces – which have far lower carbon emissions.
These steel workers could soon be out of work
However, the owners argue that the amount is too little to justify extra investment at Scunthorpe, and said last week they were now consulting on the date of shutting both the blast furnaces and the attached steelworks.
Since British Steel is the main provider of steel rails to Network Rail – as well as other construction steels available from only a few sites in the world – the closure would leave the UK more reliant on imports for critical infrastructure sites.
However, since the site belongs to its Chinese owners, a decision to nationalise the site would involve radical steps government officials are wary of taking.
They also fear leaving taxpayers exposed to a potentially loss-making business for the long run.
The dilemma has been heightened by the sharp turn in geopolitical sentiment following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
The incipient trade war and threatened cut in American support to Europe have sparked fresh calls for countries to act urgently to secure their own supplies of critical materials, especially those used for defence and infrastructure.
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Gareth Stace, head of UK Steel, the industry lobby group, said: “Talks seem to have broken down between government and British Steel.
“My advice to government is: please, Jonathan Reynolds, Business Secretary, get back round that negotiating table, thrash out a deal, and if a deal can’t be found in the next few days, then I fear for the very future of the sector, but also here for Scunthorpe steelworks.”
British Steel declined to comment.
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