Net migration to the UK has fallen by 20% from a record 906,000 the year before, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.
The latest net migration figure – the difference between people coming to live in and leaving the UK – stands at an estimated 728,000 in the year to June 2024.
A total of 1.2 million people are estimated to have arrived in the UK in the year ending June 2024, while 414,000 left.
Net migration for the previous year, to June 2023, has been revised upwards by 166,000 to 906,000, making it the new highest year on record instead of 2022.
ONS director Mary Gregory said the fall in the latest year was “driven by declining numbers of dependants on study visas coming from outside the EU”.
She said the first six months of 2024 saw a decrease in the number of people arriving on work visas partly due to the salary threshold rising substantially.
There was a 19% drop in student visas in the year to September 2024 – when the university year begins – compared with the previous year.
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There was a 33% decrease in worker visas in that time.
The previous Conservative government changed the rules so since January, most students have not been allowed to bring dependents with them, with exceptions only for those studying at PhD level.
In March, further changes were introduced by the Tories barring care workers and senior care workers from sponsoring dependents on the health and care worker visa.
Rishi Sunak’s Tory administration also raised the minimum salary requirement for the skilled worker visa from £26,200 to £38,700 in April, making it more difficult to obtain.
Asylum spending at record high
Home Office figures also released today show government spending on asylum in the UK reached £5.38bn in the year to April 2024 – up 36% from £3.95bn in the previous year and the highest level of spending on record.
At the end of September 2024, there were 97,170 asylum cases (relating to 133,409 people) awaiting an initial decision, which is 22% fewer than the year before, but 13% higher than at the end of the previous quarter.
The latest net migration figures, from July 2023 to June 2024, cover the Conservatives’ last year in office, with Labour winning the election at the beginning of July.
The data comes a day after new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch admitted her party had failed on migration.
“We got this wrong. I more than understand the public anger on this issue, I share it,” she said on Wednesday.
Image: Asylum spending is at a record high. Pic: PA
Conservatives say drop is due to their policies
Former Conservative home secretary James Cleverly said: “Today’s migration figures are the first to show the impact of the changes that I brought in as home secretary.
“Numbers are still too high, but we see the first significant downward trend in years. Changes that Labour opposed and haven’t fully implemented.”
Suella Braverman, the Tory home secretary before Mr Cleverly, also claimed credit for the drop in net migration, saying it “is a result of the changes I fought for and introduced in May 2023”.
“That’s when we started to turn the tide,” she said.
“But 1.2 million arrivals a year is still too high. This is unsustainable and why we need radical change.”
Net migration may be down but difficult migration questions remain for Labour
The headline figure today is high and has already been seized on by the likes of Nigel Farage.
Small boat crossings, which make up a fraction of the overall net migration figure, are up on last year.
Around 20,000 people have crossed the channel in small boats since Labour was elected, and Home Office data released today could paint a difficult picture on the asylum bill and hotel use.
Net migration may technically be down but that doesn’t mean there won’t be difficult questions today for the government on migration.
Labour said the latest migration figures showed the government had started the “hard graft” of tackling the issue, and was “cleaning up the Conservatives’ mess”.
A party spokesman said: “In their own words, the Tories broke the immigration system.
“On their watch, net migration quadrupled in four years to a record high of nearly one million, despite saying they’d lower it to 100,000.
“They are an open borders party who lied time and again to the public. This is the chaos Labour inherited and any crowing from the Tories should be seen in that light.”
Image: Former home secretary James Cleverly said the numbers showed Tory policy was working. Pic: AP
41% drop in study or work visas
Figures for net migration in 2022 were also revised, increasing from 607,000 to 754,000, while 2021 changed from 221,000 to 254,000.
The revisions are due to the ONS continuing to review its net migration figures as more complete data becomes available, as well as improving how it estimates the migration behaviour of people arriving in the UK from outside the EU.
The latest figures show a small increase in emigration, but the fall was mostly attributed to a decrease in immigration.
Those entering the UK as dependents of people on work or study visas dropped by 41% for each.
Main applicants for work visas decreased by 7%, while main applicants for study visas dropped by 9%.
The ONS said the fall in net migration was also driven by a rise in long-term emigration – people leaving the UK – particularly of those who came to the country on study visas.
“This is likely a consequence of the large number of students who came to the UK post-pandemic now reaching the end of their courses,” it said.
Mass deportations. Prison camps. Quitting the Refugee Convention and the UN Convention on Torture.
A shrug of the shoulders at the idea of the UK sending asylum seekers back to places like Afghanistan or Eritrea, where they could be tortured or executed.
“I’m really sorry, but we can’t be responsible for everything that happens in the whole of the world,” says Nigel Farage.
“Who is our priority?”
The Reform UK leader has been setting out his party’s new plans to address illegal migration in an interview with The Times newspaper – a set of policies, and a use of language, which would surely have been seen as extreme just a few years ago.
Only last autumn the Reform leader repeatedly shied away from the concept of “mass deportations”, describing the idea as “a political impossibility”.
But now he’s embraced Trump-style immigration rhetoric.
More on Asylum
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It’s not surprising that Reform want to capitalise on the outpouring of public anger over the use of hotels to house asylum seekers. The policy was started by the previous Conservative government, in response to housing shortages – and Labour has failed to make significant progress on its promise to stop it.
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4:40
Asylum hotel protests set to rise
But all the major parties have shifted firmly to the right on this issue.
There’s been very little political criticism of the aggressiveness of Farage’s policy suggestions, and the premise that the UK should no longer offer sanctuary to anyone who arrives here illegally.
The Tory response has been to complain that he’s just copying the ideas they didn’t quite get round to implementing before calling the general election.
“Four months late, this big reveal is just recycling many ideas the Conservatives have already announced,” said Chris Philp MP, the shadow home secretary.
“Labour’s border crisis does urgently need to be fixed with tough and radical measures, but only the Conservatives have done – and will continue to do – the detailed work to deliver a credible plan that will actually work in practice.”
Certainly, the ambition to arrest and deport everyone who arrives in a small boat – regardless of whether or not they have legitimate grounds for asylum – has clear echoes of the Tories’ Rwanda policy.
Despite spending £700m on the controversial idea, only four volunteers were ever sent to Kigali before it was cancelled by Sir Keir Starmer, who branded it a gimmick.
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2:22
Reform putting ‘wheels in motion’ for migrant hotel legal challenges
Labour have suggested they’ve diverted Home Office resources that were freed up by that decision into processing asylum claims more quickly and increasing deportations.
They’re hoping tougher action against the criminal gangs and the new “one in one out” deal with France will help deter the number of people crossing the Channel in small boats in the first place, currently at record levels.
But rather than offering any defence of the principle of offering asylum to genuine refugees – Labour’s Angela Eagle MP, the border security minister, has also focused on the feasibility of Farage’s policies.
“Nigel Farage is simply plucking numbers out of the air, another pie in the sky policy from a party that will say anything for a headline,” she said.
“We are getting a grip of the broken asylum system. Making sure those with no right to be here are removed or deported.”
Even the Liberal Democrats have taken a similar approach.
“This plan sums up Nigel Farage perfectly, as like him it doesn’t offer any real solutions,” they said.
“Whilst Farage continues to stoke division, we Liberal Democrats are more interested in delivering for our local communities.”
It’s been left to the Refugee Council to defend the principle of asylum.
“After the horrors of the Second World War, Britain and its allies committed to protecting those fleeing persecution,” said CEO Enver Solomon.
“The Refugee Convention was our collective vow of ‘never again’ – a legal framework ensuring that people who come to our country seeking safety get a fair chance to apply for asylum.
“That commitment remains vital today. Whether escaping conflict in Sudan or repression under regimes like the Taliban, people still need protection.
“Most find refuge in neighbouring countries. But some will seek sanctuary in Europe, including Britain.
“We can meet this challenge by upholding a fair, managed system that determines who qualifies for protection and who does not.”
But with Reform leading in the polls, and protests outside hotels across the country – politicians of all stripes are under pressure to respond to public frustration over the issue.
A recent YouGov poll found half of voters now believe immigration over the last ten years has been mostly bad for the country – double the figure just three years ago.
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While the government has made some progress in reducing the cost of asylum hotels – down from £8.3m a day in 2023/4 to £5.77m a day in 2024/5 – the overall numbers accommodated in this way have gone up by 8% since Labour took charge, thanks to the surge in new claims.
Sir Keir has previously said he won’t make a promise he can’t keep.
But current efforts to end the use of asylum hotels by 2029 are clearly not working.
That’s a credibility gap Farage is more than ready to exploit.
“The government isn’t listening to the public or to the courts,” said Tory shadow home secretary Chris Philp.
The politics is certainly difficult.
Government sources are alive to that fact, even accusing the Tory-led Epping Council of “playing politics” by launching the legal challenge in the first place.
That’s why ministers are trying to emphasise that closing the Bell Hotel is a matter of when, not if.
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1:24
What do migration statistics tell us?
“We’ve made a commitment that we will close all of the asylum hotels by the end of this parliament, but we need to do that in a managed and ordered way”, said the security minister Dan Jarvis.
The immediate problem for the Home Office is the same one that caused hotels to be used in the first place.
There are vanishingly few accommodation options.
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0:22
Asylum hotel closures ‘must be done in ordered way
Labour has moved away from using old military sites.
That’s despite one RAF base in Essex – which Sir Keir Starmer had promised to close – seeing an increase in the number of migrants being housed.
Back in June, the immigration minister told MPs that medium-sized sites like disused tower blocks, old teacher training colleges or redundant student accommodation could all be used.
Until 2023, regular residential accommodation was relied on.
But getting hold of more flats and houses could be practically and politically difficult, given shortages of homes and long council waiting lists.
All of this is why previous legal challenges made by councils have ultimately failed.
The government has a legal duty to house asylum seekers at risk of destitution, so judges have tended to decide that blocking off the hotel option runs the risk of causing ministers to act unlawfully.
So to return to the previous question.
Yes, the government may well have walked into a political trap here.
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