Net migration to the UK has fallen by 20% from a record 906,000 the year before, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) has said.
The latest net migration figure – the difference between people coming to live in and leaving the UK – stands at an estimated 728,000 in the year to June 2024.
A total of 1.2 million people are estimated to have arrived in the UK in the year ending June 2024, while 414,000 left.
Net migration for the previous year, to June 2023, has been revised upwards by 166,000 to 906,000, making it the new highest year on record instead of 2022.
ONS director Mary Gregory said the fall in the latest year was “driven by declining numbers of dependants on study visas coming from outside the EU”.
She said the first six months of 2024 saw a decrease in the number of people arriving on work visas partly due to the salary threshold rising substantially.
There was a 19% drop in student visas in the year to September 2024 – when the university year begins – compared with the previous year.
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There was a 33% decrease in worker visas in that time.
The previous Conservative government changed the rules so since January, most students have not been allowed to bring dependents with them, with exceptions only for those studying at PhD level.
In March, further changes were introduced by the Tories barring care workers and senior care workers from sponsoring dependents on the health and care worker visa.
Rishi Sunak’s Tory administration also raised the minimum salary requirement for the skilled worker visa from £26,200 to £38,700 in April, making it more difficult to obtain.
Asylum spending at record high
Home Office figures also released today show government spending on asylum in the UK reached £5.38bn in the year to April 2024 – up 36% from £3.95bn in the previous year and the highest level of spending on record.
At the end of September 2024, there were 97,170 asylum cases (relating to 133,409 people) awaiting an initial decision, which is 22% fewer than the year before, but 13% higher than at the end of the previous quarter.
The latest net migration figures, from July 2023 to June 2024, cover the Conservatives’ last year in office, with Labour winning the election at the beginning of July.
The data comes a day after new Tory leader Kemi Badenoch admitted her party had failed on migration.
“We got this wrong. I more than understand the public anger on this issue, I share it,” she said on Wednesday.
Image: Asylum spending is at a record high. Pic: PA
Conservatives say drop is due to their policies
Former Conservative home secretary James Cleverly said: “Today’s migration figures are the first to show the impact of the changes that I brought in as home secretary.
“Numbers are still too high, but we see the first significant downward trend in years. Changes that Labour opposed and haven’t fully implemented.”
Suella Braverman, the Tory home secretary before Mr Cleverly, also claimed credit for the drop in net migration, saying it “is a result of the changes I fought for and introduced in May 2023”.
“That’s when we started to turn the tide,” she said.
“But 1.2 million arrivals a year is still too high. This is unsustainable and why we need radical change.”
Net migration may be down but difficult migration questions remain for Labour
The headline figure today is high and has already been seized on by the likes of Nigel Farage.
Small boat crossings, which make up a fraction of the overall net migration figure, are up on last year.
Around 20,000 people have crossed the channel in small boats since Labour was elected, and Home Office data released today could paint a difficult picture on the asylum bill and hotel use.
Net migration may technically be down but that doesn’t mean there won’t be difficult questions today for the government on migration.
Labour said the latest migration figures showed the government had started the “hard graft” of tackling the issue, and was “cleaning up the Conservatives’ mess”.
A party spokesman said: “In their own words, the Tories broke the immigration system.
“On their watch, net migration quadrupled in four years to a record high of nearly one million, despite saying they’d lower it to 100,000.
“They are an open borders party who lied time and again to the public. This is the chaos Labour inherited and any crowing from the Tories should be seen in that light.”
Image: Former home secretary James Cleverly said the numbers showed Tory policy was working. Pic: AP
41% drop in study or work visas
Figures for net migration in 2022 were also revised, increasing from 607,000 to 754,000, while 2021 changed from 221,000 to 254,000.
The revisions are due to the ONS continuing to review its net migration figures as more complete data becomes available, as well as improving how it estimates the migration behaviour of people arriving in the UK from outside the EU.
The latest figures show a small increase in emigration, but the fall was mostly attributed to a decrease in immigration.
Those entering the UK as dependents of people on work or study visas dropped by 41% for each.
Main applicants for work visas decreased by 7%, while main applicants for study visas dropped by 9%.
The ONS said the fall in net migration was also driven by a rise in long-term emigration – people leaving the UK – particularly of those who came to the country on study visas.
“This is likely a consequence of the large number of students who came to the UK post-pandemic now reaching the end of their courses,” it said.
Lib Dems don’t tend to listen to right-wing podcasts.
But if they did, they may be heartened by some of what they hear.
Take the interview Kemi Badenoch gave to the TRIGGERnometry show in February.
Ten minutes into the episode, one of the hosts recounts a conversation with a Tory MP who said the party lost the last election to the Lib Dems because they went too far to the right.
Everyone laughs.
Then in March, in a conversation with the Canadian psychologist Jordan Peterson, the Tory leader was asked to describe a Liberal Democrat.
“Somebody who is good at fixing their church roof,” said Ms Badenoch.
She meant it as a negative.
Lib Dems now mention it every time you go near any of them with a TV camera.
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4:12
‘It’s a two-horse race!’
The pitch is clear, the stunts are naff
At times, party figures seem somewhat astonished the Tories don’t view them as more of a threat, given they were beaten by them in swathes of their traditional heartlands last year.
Going forward, the pitch is clear.
Sir Ed Davey wants to replace the Tories as the party of middle England.
Image: Sir Ed rides on a rollercoaster. Pic: PA
One way he’s trying to do that is through somewhat naff and very much twee campaign stunts.
To open this local election race, the Lib Dem leader straddled a hobbyhorse and galloped through a blue fence.
More recently, he’s brandished a sausage, hopped aboard a rollercoaster and planted wildflowers.
Senior Lib Dems say they are “constantly asking” whether this is the correct strategy, especially given the hardship being faced by many in the country.
They maintain it is helping get their message out though, according to the evidence they have.
“I think you can take the issues that matter to voters seriously while not taking yourself too seriously, and I also think it’s a way of engaging people who are turned off by politics,” said Sir Ed.
Image: Sir Ed on a hobby horse during the launch of the party’s local election campaign in the Walled Garden of Badgemore Park in Henley-on-Thames. Pic: PA
Pic: PA
‘What if people don’t want grown-ups?’
In that way, the Lib Dems are fishing in a similar pool of voters to Reform UK, albeit from the other side of the water’s edge.
Indeed, talk to Lib Dem MPs, and they say while some Reform supporters they meet would never vote for a party with the word “liberal” in its name, others are motivated more by generalised anger than any traditional political ideology.
These people, the MPs say, can be persuaded.
But this group also shows a broader risk to the Lib Dem approach.
Put simply, are they simply too nice for the fractured times we live in?
“The Lib Dems want to be the grown-ups in the room,” says Joe Twyman, director of Delta Poll.
“We like to think that the grown-ups in the room will be rewarded… but what if people don’t want grown-ups in the room, what if people want kids shitting on the floor.”
Image: Sir Ed canoeing in the River Severn in Shrewsbury, Shropshire. Pic: PA
A plan that looks different to the status quo
The party’s answer to this is that they are alive to the trap Lib Dems have walked into in the past of adopting a technocratic tone and blandly telling the public every issue is a “bit more complicated” than it seems.
One senior figure says the Lib Dems are trying to do something quite unusual for a progressive centre-left party in making a broader emotional argument about why the public should pick them.
This source says that approach runs through the stunts but also through the focus on care and the party leader’s personal connection to the issue.
Presenting a plan that looks different to the status quo is another way to try to stand apart.
It’s why there has been a focus on attacking Donald Trump and talking up the EU recently, two areas left unoccupied by the main parties.
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1:09
‘A snivelling cretin’: Your response?
The focus on local campaigning
But beyond the national strategy, Lib Dems believe it’s their local campaigning that really reaps rewards.
In the run-up to the last election, several more regional press officers were recruited.
Many stories pumped out by the media office now have a focus on data that can be broken down to a constituency level and given to local news outlets.
Party sources say there has also been a concerted attempt to get away from the cliche of the Lib Dems constantly calling for parliament to be recalled.
“They beat us to it,” said one staffer of the recent recall to debate British Steel.
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1:08
Steel might have been ‘under orders’ from China
‘Gail’s bakery rule’
This focus on the local is helped by the fact many Lib Dem constituencies now look somewhat similar.
That was evidenced by the apparent “Gail’s bakery rule” last year, in which any constituency with a branch of the upmarket pastry purveyor had activists heaped on it.
The similarities have helped the Lib Dems get away from another cliche – that of the somewhat opportunist targeting of different areas with very different messages.
“There is a certain consistency in where we won that helps explain that higher vote retention,” said Lib Dem president Lord Pack.
“Look at leaflets in different constituencies [last year] and they were much more consistent than previous elections… the messages are fundamentally the same in a way that was not always the case in the past.”
Image: Sir Ed in a swan pedalo on Bude Canal in Cornwall. Pic: PA
A bottom-up campaign machine
New MPs have also been tasked with demonstrating delivery and focusing doggedly on the issues that matter to their constituents.
One Home Counties MP says he wants to be able to send out leaflets by 2027, saying “everyone in this constituency knows someone who has been helped by their local Lib Dem”.
In the run-up to last year’s vote, strategists gave the example of the Lib Dem candidate who was invited to a local ribbon-cutting ceremony in place of the sitting Tory MP as proof of how the party can ingratiate itself into communities.
With that in mind, the aim for these local elections is to pick up councillors in the places the party now has new MPs, allowing them to dig in further and keep building a bottom-up campaign machine.
‘Anyone but Labour or Conservative’
But what of the next general election?
Senior Lib Dems are confident of holding their current 72 seats.
They also point to the fact 20 of their 27 second-place finishes currently have a Conservative MP.
Those will be the main focus, along with the 43 seats in which they finished third.
There’s also an acronym brewing to describe the approach – ABLOC or “Anyone but Labour or Conservative”.
Image: Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch aren’t exactly flying high in the opinion polls
9% swing could make Sir Ed leader of the opposition
The hope is for the political forces to align and Reform UK to continue splitting the Tory vote while unpopularity with the Labour government and Conservative opposition triggers some to jump ship.
A recent pamphlet by Lord Pack showed if the Tories did not make progress against the other parties, just 25 gains from them by the Lib Dems – the equivalent of a 9% swing – would be enough to make Sir Ed leader of the opposition.
What’s more, a majority of these seats would be in the South East and South West, where the party has already picked up big wins.
As for the overall aim of all this, Lord Pack is candid the Lib Dems shouldn’t view a hung parliament as the best way to achieve the big prize of electoral reform because they almost always end badly for the smaller party.
Instead, the Lib Dem president suggests the potential fragmentation of politics could bring electoral reform closer in a more natural way.
“What percentage share of the vote is the most popular party going to get at the next general election, it’s quite plausible that that will be under 30%. Our political system can’t cope with that sort of world,” he said.
Whether Ms Badenoch will still be laughing then remains to be seen.
This is part of a series of local election previews with the five major parties. All five have been invited to take part.
It would be “foolish” to stop engaging with China, the chancellor has said, as Sir Keir Starmer held his first call with Donald Trump since he put 10% tariffs on goods imported from the UK.
Rachel Reeves will hold talks with the US next week amid efforts to establish a trade deal, which the government hopes will take the sting out of the president’s tariffs.
There has been speculation Washington may press the government to limit its dealings with China as part of that deal, having launched a tit-for-tat trade war with its economic rival.
But Ms Reeves told The Daily Telegraph:”China is the second-biggest economy in the world, and it would be, I think, very foolish, to not engage.
“That’s the approach of this government.”
She suggested she would back the fast fashion firm Shein launching an initial public offering (IPO) in the UK, saying the London Stock Exchange and Financial Conduct Authority have “very strict standards” and “we do want to welcome new listings”.
Shein, which was founded in China but is now based in Singapore, has faced several obstacles to its efforts to float, including UK political pressure over alleged supply chain and labour abuses.
Image: Sir Keir Starmer and Donald Trump met in February. Pic: PA
‘Productive discussions’
When it comes to a UK-US deal, The Daily Telegraph has reported officials in Washington believe an agreement could be weeks away.
But on Thursday, Mr Trump said he was in “no rush” to reach any deals because of the revenues his new tariffs are generating.
During Sir Keir’s call with the US president on Friday, the two leaders talked about the “ongoing and productive discussions” on trade between the two nations, according to a Downing Street spokesperson.
“The prime minister reiterated his commitment to free and open trade and the importance of protecting the national interest,” Number 10 said.
As well as the 10% levy on all goods imported to America from the UK, Mr Trump enacted a 25% levy on car imports.
The health secretary is taking inspiration from Japan in his bid to change how Britons are treated by the NHS.
Wes Streeting has said he’s interested in the idea of “health MOTs” for Britain’s older citizens, evoking how the Asian island nation relies on personalised medical plans for its ageing population.
Japan combines genomics and AI machine learning to offer hyper-bespoke programmes for individuals, helping to predict and prevent illnesses before they really take hold.
Mr Streeting said such an approach could be a “game-changer” in the UK, as he prepares to publish his 10-year plan for the health service later in 2025.
He has repeatedly spoken about his desire to move more of the NHS’s work out of hospitals and into local communities, focusing more on preventative care than more expensive and invasive emergency treatment.
Last year, NHS England – which is due to be scrapped – announced patients over 65 or those with frailty-related conditions would be given health MOTs outside emergency departments to avoid unnecessary admissions.
The tests checked for blood pressure, heart health and mobility.
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3:05
Why has Starmer axed NHS England?
‘A lot of opportunity’
Speaking to The Telegraph, the minister said Japan was an “interesting” case study to follow because it’s got a “very significant ageing society”.
Japan’s population has been shrinking and growing older for decades as young people delay marriage and having children largely due to unstable jobs and economic difficulties.
Mr Streeting has reportedly been briefed by an ex-Japanese health official about the country’s health programmes.
He told The Telegraph while the NHS faced “enormous challenges”, he believed advances in technology – notably around artificial intelligence – offered “a lot of opportunity and hope”.
He said he hoped personalised programmes like Japan’s could eventually be offered to everyone in the UK.