Timeline of 13 years of pettiness since Texas and Texas A&M last played
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Jeremy Willis, ESPN.com
On Thanksgiving in 2011, we thought we saw the end of the Texas–Texas A&M football rivalry.
When Texas senior, and future NFL great, Justin Tucker nailed a 40-yard, winning field goal, it gave the Longhorns a 27-25 win over their hated rivals and closed out a series that had been played since 1894.
“It was special,” Tucker said at the time. “This is what we play for in college football. … And being able to put a smile on every Longhorns [fan’s] face tonight was special to me.”
It was the end because conference realignment was splitting up the Aggies and Longhorns. Texas A&M was leaving the Big 12 for the SEC. It would take another titanic round of conference realignment for Texas to join the Aggies there.
And to get the rivalry back on the schedule.
Though, by Saturday, the Aggies and Longhorns won’t have met on a football field in 4,755 days, the hate went nowhere.
The teams have met in other sports. The Horns also swiped Texas A&M’s baseball coach, Jim Schlossnagle, in June. His hiring came a day after he said: “I took the job at Texas A&M to never take another job again.” But since that Thursday 13 years ago, the football rivalry has largely been reduced to political maneuvers, social media spats and rote answers from new coaches.
Here’s a look at the timeline of pettiness before the Longhorns and Aggies finally play again (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+):
2012
The SEC’s addition of Texas A&M and Missouri was the conference’s first movement outside its traditional footprint. The chance to add new TV markets and expand into new regions has been a factor in expansion ever since. But then-Texas athletic director DeLoss Dodds didn’t think the SEC was getting much out of the deal.
When it was said SEC expanded its footprint into Texas by adding A&M, Dodds said, “They have a sliver down the East side” of Texas.
— Kirk Bohls (@kbohls) May 31, 2012
One year after Tucker beat the Aggies, the teams were moving on. TCU replaced A&M as Texas’ Thanksgiving Day opponent in 2012 and the Aggies would play Missouri during the holiday weekend.
With the breakup still raw, Texas’ Alex Okafor felt pity for A&M’s players.
Texas DE Alex Okafor: “I feel sorry for A&M. We still have a big-time game on Thanksgiving. They’re missing out.”
— Kirk Bohls (@kbohls) November 19, 2012
The Aggies, riding the mania around Johnny Manziel’s Heisman run, an upset of No. 1 Alabama, and an 11-2 season, might not have been too concerned about their holiday plans.
2013
Throughout this time without the rivalry, the Texas state government tried its hardest to enact laws to force the two teams to play each other.
The first came with HB 778, filed by state representative Ryan Guillen, a Texas A&M graduate. The bill, which never made it out of its legislative committee, did feature a penalty.
“Whichever institution refused to participate in the showdown would suffer restrictions on its athletic scholarships,” the Texas Tribune reported.
Another similar bill was filed by representative Lyle Larson in 2018. In 2019, the bill gained support from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Texas graduate. Abbott even called attention to the measure in his state of the state speech that year.
That measure also died in committee.
Though the legislature was trying to force the two sides back on the field in 2013, everyone from chancellors to athletic directors, coaches and players were trading shots at one another.
“They left,” Dodds said, sounding not at all like the scorned party, in March 2013. “They’re the ones that decided not to play us. We get to decide when we play again.”
At SEC meetings that year, then-Texas A&M chancellor R. Bowen Loftin was asked for a one-liner about his school’s former rival.
“I don’t have to make it anymore,” Loftin said. “[The rivalry is] not relevant to us anymore, that’s the whole point. It’s not an important issue.”
Being continually asked about it kind of makes it relevant but that shouldn’t get in the way of pettiness. But then the football season came around.
In the second week of the 2013 season, Texas was crushed by BYU 40-21, with Cougars QB Taysom Hill racking up 388 total yards and three scores. Aggies defensive back Toney Hurd Jr. made a bold declaration.
Texas A&M is the university of Texas.
— Toney Hurd Jr. (@HURDjunior) September 8, 2013
The tweet reached then-Texas coach Mack Brown, who bristled at the notion.
“We are the university of Texas in this state and will be, regardless of what some [Texas A&M] kid tweets,” Brown said.
The Aggies still had Manziel and were heading to a 9-4 season. The Longhorns would finish 8-4 that season, but Brown would announce his departure in December.
By November 2013, nearing two years since the last game, it was time again to ask people around the programs about whether they wanted to renew the game. Jason Cook, then an associate athletic director at A&M, took his turn in stating that no regular-season game was coming.
“We hope to play them again in a BCS bowl or playoff game at some point,” Cook told ESPN at the time.
2014
The end of 2013 saw huge changes at UT. Brown was gone and Dodds announced his retirement. Steve Patterson, a Texas alum, would take over as AD and Charlie Strong replaced Brown.
Though Strong was the first of many new coaches at the programs to generically endorse the rivalry’s return, saying “I’d love to play it,” his AD wasn’t feeling the same way.
“There’s a lot of great tradition with Texas A&M. At some point in time, does it make some business sense, some branding sense to play again? I don’t know,” Patterson said in early April. “It’s not at the top of my list.”
Later in the month, Patterson said more to SEC Network’s Paul Finebaum.
UT AD Steve Patterson told us “unless there is a compelling reason,” the football series between Texas and Texas A&M is dead.
— Paul Finebaum (@finebaum) April 25, 2014
In May, the Horns and Aggies would meet again, but in an NCAA baseball regional. Aggies football coach Kevin Sumlin said, “Eventually, I think it will happen,” referring to renewing the rivalry.
Though the spring was busy, another football season went by without the teams meeting. Strong went 6-7 in his first season in charge of the Longhorns. The Aggies went 8-5 and Sumlin & Co. were rolling on the recruiting trail, signing a class that included five-stars Daylon Mack and QB Kyler Murray, who had teased the Longhorns about potentially coming there.
2015
Strong and Sumlin again said they’d like to see the rivalry return. Strong was more cautious about it this time.
“Let me win some games first,” he said. “Then I can push it. I don’t know if I want to go walking into College Station right now.”
The Aggies didn’t miss their chance to capitalize on the Texas coach capitulating to A&M.
— Daylon Mack (@DaylonMack) April 16, 2015
Though the coaches were playing nice, administrators in College Station were ready to crank up the hating again.
Texas A&M chancellor John Sharp first said playing the Aggies meant getting on “real TV,” a veiled shot at UT’s Longhorn Network (which was run by ESPN).
Then, when Texas announced it would begin selling beer and wine at football games, Sharp came out firing.
“Our athletic program has not reached the point where we require the numbing effects of alcohol,” Sharp said.
2017
By 2017, it had been more than five years without the rivalry. That didn’t lessen any of the bitterness from some of those involved. Bill Bryne, A&M’s AD from 2003 to 2012, looking back on his time, said he wanted the SEC to keep Thanksgiving weekend open to continue the rivalry but was thwarted by his counterpart in Austin.
“Their AD [DeLoss Dodds] at the time came out and said we will never play Texas A&M again, and they worked along with Baylor and the conference to have no one in the [Big 12] schedule us,” Bryne told AL.com a few years later. “There were other forces at work to make sure we didn’t play.”
Byrne would go on to say, “We don’t need them anymore.”
Despite his desire to see it happen, Strong’s tenure at Texas came and went without the rivalry. He was fired after the 2016 season. Soon after Byrne’s comments, new Texas coach Tom Herman echoed his predecessor’s desire to see the game return.
2018
Before the 2018 season, the Houston Chronicle reported that Texas had tried to schedule a home-and-home series with Texas A&M for the 2022 and 2023 seasons. That would have given college football back the rivalry two years soon.
The Aggies said no.
“We were already booked,” Texas A&M athletic director Scott Woodward told the Chronicle. “We’re booked 10 years out. He had an opening at the time, and it suited him, but it didn’t suit us.”
Woodward also said that playing in the SEC West was all the Aggies needed.
“You have Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss and Mississippi State rolling in here every other year and Arkansas in Dallas every year. That’s a pretty darn good schedule,” Woodward said.
The Longhorns scheduled Alabama instead. Their win over the Tide in 2023 helped put them in the College Football Playoff. The Aggies would lose nonconference games to App State and Miami in those seasons.
The Aggies got a new coach in 2018 — Jimbo Fisher, who hired ace recruiter Tim Brewster, to his staff in College Station.
Brewster wasted little time getting caught up in the rivalry sniping by being subtweeted by then-Texas QB Sam Ehlinger who tagged then-Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa, who had just led the Tide to a national title.
Tell him to stop riding on your back! @Tuaamann_ https://t.co/d2HNnHhL3e
— Sam Ehlinger (@sehlinger3) February 20, 2018
2020
After years of administrators and politicians stating how much they wanted the game back, pushing for the game to come back or saying the game would come back at some point in the future, nothing much had changed.
Fans, too, called for the game to be back. Texas A&M AD Ross Bjork, who was hired in 2019, got back to one hopeful fan.
Howdy Josh! Sorry my friend, ain’t going to happen this year nor is this being discussed anywhere at A&M. I’ve been here over a year & no one from there has asked me to play them. Let’s get this season going & keep moving forward 👊👍
— Ross Bjork (@RossBjorkAD) July 29, 2020
2021
A year after Bjork’s tweet, things were indeed moving forward, without A&M’s input. In July 2021, reports began circulating that Texas, along with Oklahoma, were in discussions to join the SEC.
The Austin American-Statesman reported at the time that the Big 12 believed talks between the SEC and the two schools had been going on for months, though Texas A&M had been left out of the discussions. An SEC source told ESPN’s Heather Dinich that it was inaccurate that A&M was left out of the conversation.
Bjork countered, saying he will be “diligent in our approach to protect Texas A&M.”
“We want to be the only SEC program in the state of Texas,” Bjork said. “There’s a reason why Texas A&M left the Big 12 — to be standalone, to have our own identity.”
Texas A&M’s board of regents even called a meeting for the “discussion and possible action on contractual and governance issues relating to Texas A&M University and the Southeastern Conference.”
Bjork said at the time that he didn’t believe there was anything in A&M’s affiliation with the SEC that prevented the league from pursuing other Texas schools.
Loftin, who had retired by this latest round of expansion, said he believed there was an unwritten “gentleman’s agreement” about inviting other teams from member states.
“There’s this understanding among the membership — at least it was 10 years ago — that you don’t admit a school from the same state as a member school unless that member school’s OK with it,” Loftin told ESPN’s Dave Wilson in 2021. “We talked about it from time to time among ourselves, that this was the way it was going to be, that if we had another school in Texas wanting to enter the SEC, Texas A&M would have veto power.”
That bluster was probably the perfect coda to this chapter of the rivalry — a lot of big talk that ultimately didn’t mean anything. Also like most of the games on the field in the history of the rivalry (Texas holds a 76-37-5 record), the Longhorns came out on top.
And when it was becoming clear the Aggies would no longer be the lone Lone Star State SEC school, Loftin couldn’t resist a shot at the Horns.
“They have a very high opinion of themselves — which is not surprising — but not always justified. And that drives a lot of thinking there,” Loftin said in 2021. “… But the fit, culturally, of A&M and the SEC is very good. The fit of Texas is not. That’s just plain and simple.”
2024
With the game finally about to return, the Longhorns and Aggies have each had three coaching changes since 2011. All of those new coaches said they wanted to resume the rivalry yet never got to see its return.
Each program had athletic directors say some spicy things. But Patterson was relieved of his duties in 2015 and Bjork left Aggieland for the AD job at Ohio State. Neither got to back up their words.
The coaches new to the rivalry, Texas’ Steve Sarkisian and Texas A&M’s Mike Elko, echoed, at least some of their predecessors, in respecting the history of the game and being glad it’s back.
“We should play them,” Elko said in May. “When you have two programs like that in same state two hours away, they should play every year and it should mean a lot.”
If the 13 previous years are any indication, Saturday’s game should mean quite a bit.
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Bill Connelly
The penultimate week of the college football regular season gave us plenty of entertainment. We got an incredible comeback in Salt Lake City, we got some resounding blowouts, we got a late Heisman push from Diego Pavia and we got the best ending of the season at the Division II level.
We didn’t really get much change, however. No team in the top 14 of the College Football Playoff rankings lost, and of the 16 ranked teams that won, 15 won by double digits and 10 won by at least 20. The ACC gave us more chaos thanks to Georgia Tech’s no-show against Pitt, but it was a rather chaos-free weekend overall.
Luckily, Rivalry Week is on the way, and it usually delivers. We can still squeeze a little bit of chaos out of the 2025 season, so let’s review Week 13 by looking ahead to Week 14. What do we have in store for college football’s best weekend?
For each category below, games are listed in chronological order. All times Eastern.
At-large playoff bids
One thing about all the top teams winning this weekend is: The playoff picture remains extremely unsettled. As a general heuristic, I tend to think of any two-loss SEC or Big Ten team or any one-loss Big 12 or ACC team as safely in the field. But with two weeks remaining, we have more of those teams than we have playoff slots: There are six SEC teams and four Big Ten teams with two or fewer losses, plus two Big 12 teams with one loss. Someone deserving is currently on the outside looking in.
Rivalry Week could alter that picture, of course, though with each of the current top 13 in the CFP rankings favored — 10 by double-digits — that’s not a guarantee.
Friday
No. 6 Ole Miss at Mississippi State (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 13.9 (82% win probability)
No. 12 Utah at Kansas (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Utah by 15.1 (83%)
No. 4 Georgia at No. 16 Georgia Tech (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: UGA by 12.9 (79%)
No. 2 Indiana at Purdue (Friday, 7:30 p.m., NBC) — SP+ projection: IU by 33.9 (98%)
No. 3 Texas A&M at No. 17 Texas (Friday, 7:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: A&M by 5.3 (63%)
Six potential at-large teams play Friday, though Indiana, A&M and Georgia are virtually assured of playoff bids at this point. We’ve seen some pundits attempting to will a “The committee might leave Ole Miss out if Lane Kiffin is leaving!” narrative into existence. While I think this is preposterous on its face — Kiffin isn’t the one making the plays for a 10-1 team, and if the committee indeed chose to downgrade the Rebels because of that, we need to tear down the entire committee structure and go back to a formula* — I don’t think the Rebels want to find out what happens if they lose and most of the teams directly below them win.
(* We should go back to a formula anyway, but that’s neither here nor there.)
Utah just barely kept hope alive Saturday. With Joe Jackson and the Kansas State run game playing at an unstoppable level, the Utes gave up points on five straight first-half possessions to fall behind 31-21 at halftime. They responded with a 14-0 burst, but K-State responded with a 16-0 run to seize total control. Jackson’s 24-yard score seemed to put the game almost out of reach, but Tao Johnson returned a 2-point pass 100 yards to make it 47-37.
We were only getting started. Devon Dampier found Larry Simmons for a 20-yard score with 2:47 left, and after a K-State three-and-out (the Wildcats’ first since the first drive of the game), Dampier raced 59 yards on fourth-and-1 to set up his own go-ahead touchdown with 56 seconds remaining. Lander Barton sealed the comeback with an interception.
Saturday
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 18 Michigan (noon, Fox) — SP+ projection: OSU by 14.6 (82%)
No. 13 Miami at Pitt (noon, ABC) — SP+ projection: Miami by 6.0 (65%)
No. 5 Texas Tech at West Virginia (noon, ESPN) — SP+ projection: Tech by 31.5 (98%)
UCF at No. 11 BYU (1 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: BYU by 19.1 (88%)
No. 7 Oregon at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: Oregon by 6.7 (66%)
LSU at No. 8 Oklahoma (3:30 p.m., ABC) — SP+ projection: OU by 11.7 (77%)
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 20 Tennessee (3:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UT by 0.7 (52%)
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn (7:30 p.m., ABC) – SP+ projection: Bama by 6.0 (65%)
No. 9 Notre Dame at Stanford (10:30 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: Irish by 31.7 (98%)
In a different year, Texas and Michigan could both be in “Pull a Rivalry Week upset, and you’re in” situations. Thanks to Georgia Tech and USC losing, the Longhorns and Wolverines could rank 15th and 16th, respectively, when the new CFP rankings come out Tuesday. That would put them in range, but if Vanderbilt beats Tennessee and if BYU and Notre Dame win blowouts as expected, there just might not be space in the inn.
There are two different ways to root for playoff chaos, I guess. On one hand, you could root for lots of upsets and general nonsense, which is where I tend to lean. That means Go Mississippi State! Go Georgia Tech! Go Michigan! Go Pitt! Et cetera. But upsets might actually clarify the picture a bit in the end, so the other chaos route involves rooting for whatever gives the committee the biggest possible headache. That means Michigan and Texas both pulling upsets, Vanderbilt toppling Tennessee and maybe Ole Miss falling, but chalk winning out otherwise.
Group of 5 playoff bid
Temple at North Texas (Friday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: UNT by 24.0 (93% win probability)
James Madison at Coastal Carolina (Saturday, 3:45 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: JMU by 21.6 (91%)
Charlotte at No. 24 Tulane (Saturday, 7:30 p.m., ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Tulane by 33.8 (98%)
Barring extreme chaos — which might open the door for the Mountain West champ — we’re pretty much locked into a two-team battle for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP slot: James Madison vs. the American Conference champ. We’re exceedingly likely to get a Tulane-North Texas battle for the American title in two weeks, and while it’s hard to say how the rankings might play out (since the committee has only deigned to rank Tulane at the moment, and barely at that), it appears these three teams have a greater than 95% chance among them to make the playoff.
While North Texas put up absurd numbers Saturday against Rice, and Tulane pulled away late against Temple, JMU played with fire against a feisty Washington State team. The Cougars nearly upset two potential playoff teams in recent weeks (Ole Miss, Virginia), and they led JMU until Wayne Knight’s 58-yard burst up the middle with 6:24 left gave the Dukes a 24-20 win. One would think the committee would rank JMU this week, but I’d have ranked them a month ago, so who knows?
Conference title races
SEC
Four teams still have a shot at the SEC title, and their games are all listed in the CFP section above.
• Texas A&M is in the SEC championship game with a win over Texas, but if the Aggies lose they’re probably out unless both Bama and Ole Miss lose.
• Alabama is most likely in with a win over Auburn since the Tide boast a win over Georgia and, in a multiway tie that depends on the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker, they should have the advantage.
• Georgia is in the clubhouse at 7-1 in SEC play and would win tiebreakers against Ole Miss (because of a head-to-head win) and, if Texas A&M loses, the Aggies (because of the Dawgs’ record against common opponents). But if A&M and Bama both win as favorites (there’s a 41% chance of that, per SP+), the Dawgs are out. I doubt they would mind much.
• Ole Miss probably needs a win plus Bama and A&M losses. (I say “probably” because we still don’t know for sure how the “conference opponent winning percentage” tiebreaker will play out. Giant superconferences can get really messy.)
Big Ten
We probably know what we’re getting in the Big Ten, but it would take only one upset to throw things for a loop. Indiana is unbeaten and needs only to beat Purdue to clinch its first trip to Indianapolis (for a football game, anyway), and since there’s a 98% chance of that happening, that tamps down hopes for major chaos. But if Michigan upsets Ohio State, that likely puts Oregon in if the Ducks win at Washington. If we get double upsets in Ann Arbor and Seattle, however, that puts Michigan in.
There’s an 80% chance of both Indiana and Ohio State winning, per SP+, but Oregon and Michigan both kept hopes alive by taking care of business Saturday. Michigan took a 14-point lead over Maryland early in the second quarter, traded blows with the Terrapins for a little while, then laid the hammer down in a 45-20 win.
Oregon, meanwhile, had to work 60 full minutes against No. 15 USC but got the job done in mature fashion. USC cut the Ducks’ lead to 35-27 early in the fourth quarter, but Oregon responded with an 11-play, nearly six-minute drive to go back up 15. It was a dreadfully penalty-heavy affair — the teams combined for 231 rushing yards and 233 penalty yards — but Oregon was never in serious danger. That all but locked up the Ducks’ playoff bid, but it probably won’t earn them a shot at repeating as Big Ten champions.
Big 12
Arizona at No. 25 Arizona State (Friday, 9 p.m., Fox) — SP+ projection: Arizona by 4.0 (60% win probability)
As with the Big Ten, we probably know what we’re getting in the Big 12 championship game: a BYU-Texas Tech rematch. There’s an 86% chance both BYU and Tech win this coming weekend, per SP+, and if they do, they’re in. If they don’t, however, the Territorial Cup and the Utah-Kansas game above could both play a role.
If Arizona State beats Arizona — an upset, according to SP+ — the Sun Devils could get back to Jerry World to defend its title if Kansas upsets Utah and either BYU or Texas Tech also loses. Utah, meanwhile, needs a win, wins by BYU and Arizona State and a massive upset loss for Texas Tech. Neither of these scenarios are likely, and we’re basically looking at a 98.8% chance that either Tech or BYU wins the conference crown. But true chaos lovers know that if there’s a 98.8% chance that something happens, there’s a 1.2% chance that it doesn’t!
ACC
In addition to Miami-Pitt above, three more games will play huge roles in sorting out an incredible ACC mess.
Wake Forest at Duke (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ACCN) – SP+ projection: Duke by 0.4 (51% win probability)
Virginia Tech at No. 19 Virginia (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN) – SP+ projection: UVA by 22.2 (92%)
SMU at California (Saturday, 8 p.m., ESPN2) – SP+ projection: SMU by 16.5 (85%)
Pitt remains as antisocial as its coach. A week after falling out of the CFP rankings because of a blowout loss to Notre Dame, Pat Narduzzi’s Panthers went down to Atlanta and rolled over Georgia Tech, all but eliminating the Yellow Jackets from ACC contention. Pitt led 28-0 just 19 minutes in, and while Tech was able to close to within 35-28 with 4:51 left after an offensive burst and a cataclysmic fake punt by Pitt, the Panthers clinched the win with a 56-yard touchdown run by freshman Ja’Kyrian Turner. (Subbing in for the injured Desmond Reid, Turner rushed for 201 yards against Tech’s dreadful defense.)
Now we have three 6-1 teams (Virginia, Pitt and SMU), two of which came into this weekend unranked, followed by 6-2 Georgia Tech and 5-2 Miami and Duke. If all three of the 6-1 teams win, Virginia and SMU will play for the ACC title because Pitt has the inferior record against common opponents. And obviously if only two of the three 6-1 teams win, we know who’s in.
But since when has the orderly thing happened in this conference? Just know that tiebreakers like “conference opponent win percentage” (which could be very close) and “higher SportSource Analytics team rating” could come into play. And with games in all three primary windows Saturday, this could take all day (and into early Sunday) to straighten out. Hell yeah, let’s get weird.
American
Navy at Memphis (Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN) — SP+ projection: Memphis by 11.5 (76% win probability)
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: ECU by 11.1 (76%)
Rice at South Florida (Saturday, 7 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USF by 27.3 (96%)
Per SP+, there’s a 91% chance that both Tulane and North Texas will win Saturday, and if they do, they’ll play in the American title game. But at 6-1 in the conference, Navy could pounce if either suffers a shocking upset. And if Navy also falls as an underdog at Memphis, the door might open back up for USF or East Carolina. And a blend of computer rankings (including SP+) could end up involved. But again, we have a better than 90% chance of order.
Sun Belt
Troy at Southern Miss (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: USM by 2.5 (56% win probability)
This one is straightforward: James Madison has clinched the Sun Belt East, while the winner of Troy-Southern Miss will represent the West as a hefty underdog against the Dukes.
Mountain West
San Diego State at New Mexico (Friday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: SDSU by 4.7 (62% win probability)
Boise State at Utah State (Friday, 4 p.m., CBS) — SP+ projection: BSU by 3.5 (59%)
UNLV at Nevada (Saturday, 9 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: UNLV by 15.8 (84%)
This one is straightforward at first: We have one team at 6-1 (San Diego State) and three at 5-2 (Boise State, UNLV and New Mexico). If SDSU beats New Mexico, then Boise State holds the tiebreaker over UNLV and would be in with a win; if the Broncos lose, UNLV is in with a win.
However, a New Mexico upset and a large tie at 6-2 could send us screaming toward the “blended computer rankings (not including SP+ this time)” tiebreaker. Algorithms could get their moment in the sun in the G5.
Conference USA
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (Saturday, 2 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: WKU by 3.7 (59% win probability)
Kennesaw State at Liberty (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., CBSSN) — SP+ projection: KSU by 4.0 (60%)
Convenient: We have a three-way tie at 6-1 with Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State and Western Kentucky, and WKU and JSU play each other, so the winner is guaranteed a spot. If KSU wins, the Owls will play the WKU-JSU winner for the title. Easy peasy. But if the Owls lose, it could come down to either Jacksonville State’s head-to-head win over Kennesaw (if the Gamecocks lose to WKU) or, say it with me now, “blended computer rankings” if WKU loses to JSU.
MAC
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: WMU by 8.6% (70% win probability)
Ohio at Buffalo (Friday, noon, ESPNU) — SP+ projection: Ohio by 2.9 (57%)
Toledo at Central Michigan (Saturday, noon, ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Toledo by 10.3 (74%)
Ball State at Miami (Ohio) (Saturday, noon, CBSSN) — SP+ projection: Miami by 20.3 (90%)
By Wednesday morning, we’ll know if this race is messy or super messy. At 6-1, WMU is in with a Tuesday win over EMU. But there’s a four-way tie between CMU, Miami, Ohio and Toledo at 5-2. Most big-group tiebreakers seem to favor WMU and Miami, though Toledo’s head-to-head win over Miami could also come in handy.
Bowl eligibility
There are 21 5-6 teams in action this weekend, plus 5-5 Army, needing wins to ensure bowl eligibility. (Technically one of the 5-6 teams, Delaware, is ineligible for a bowl, but the Blue Hens would get one with a win if there aren’t enough eligible teams to fill all the slots.)
Based on SP+ projections, about 10 of them will win. Quite a few are listed above — Auburn (vs. Bama), Buffalo (vs. Ohio), Kansas (vs. Utah), Mississippi State (at Ole Miss), Rice (at USF), Temple (at North Texas), UCF (at BYU) — but we have loads more to follow, including a trio of “the winner bowls” matchups between 5-6 teams Saturday afternoon.
The winner bowls
5-6 Georgia Southern at 5-6 Marshall (Saturday, 1:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Marshall by 10.2 (74% win probability)
5-6 Arkansas State at 5-6 Appalachian State (Saturday, 2:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: App State by 1.8 (54%)
5-6 Penn State at 5-6 Rutgers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., BTN) — SP+ projection: PSU by 14.4 (82%)
Penn State has played very well under interim head coach Terry Smith, enough to build at least a little bit of “Maybe just hire Terry?” buzz. The Nittany Lions manhandled Nebraska 37-10 on Saturday — with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton combining for 204 rushing yards and four touchdowns, just like the good old days — to get within one game of .500. It would be a shock if they suffered a letdown against Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights do still have a decent offense. (Defense, not so much.)
Other 5-6 teams
5-6 Kentucky at Louisville (Saturday, noon, ACCN) — SP+ projection: Louisville by 7.1 (67% win probability)
Houston at 5-6 Baylor (Saturday, noon, TNT) — SP+ projection: UH by 3.4 (42%)
Colorado at 5-6 Kansas State (Saturday, noon, FS1) — SP+ projection: K-State by 15.4 (83%)
UTEP at 5-6 Delaware (Saturday, 1 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: Delaware by 5.0 (62%)
Louisiana-Monroe at 5-6 Louisiana (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UL by 15.6 (84%)
South Alabama at 5-6 Texas State (Saturday, 3 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: TXST by 11.4 (76%)
5-5 Army at UTSA (Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+) — SP+ projection: UTSA by 7.3 (68%)
5-6 Florida State at Florida (Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN2) — SP+ projection: FSU by 7.1 (67%)
Oregon State at 5-6 Washington State (Saturday, 6:30 p.m., The CW) — SP+ projection: Wazzu by 16.6 (85%)
I usually find myself rooting for the 5-6 team in these types of games, but I’ll be rooting particularly hard for Kansas State (because the Wildcats really have rallied to play mostly decent ball down the stretch), Texas State (because the Bobcats are impossibly entertaining and dropped a series of midseason heartbreakers), and Washington State (because it played incredibly well in three trips east but fell to Ole Miss, Virginia and James Madison by one-score margins).
This week in SP+
The SP+ rankings have been updated for the week. Let’s take a look at the teams that saw the biggest change in their overall ratings. (Note: We’re looking at ratings, not rankings.)
Moving up
Here are the five teams that saw their ratings rise the most this week:
North Texas: up 4.0 adjusted points per game (ranking rose from 24th to 18th)
UNLV: up 3.6 points (from 64th to 54th)
Wake Forest: up 3.5 points (from 63rd to 52nd)
South Florida: up 3.2 points (from 38th to 28th)
Vanderbilt: up 3.2 points (from 18th to 13th)
With maybe the most video-game-like offensive display I’ve seen, North Texas placed two players on the Heisman of the Week list below and rose into the SP+ top 20. (That’s higher than Boise State ranked ahead of last year’s CFP, by the way. James Madison is in the top 30, too.) Vandy’s ridiculously dominant performance against Kentucky earned the Commodores a late rise as well.
Moving down
Here are the five teams whose ratings fell the most:
Florida: down 4.9 adjusted points per game (ranking fell from 50th to 69th)
Syracuse: down 4.5 points (from 101st to 118th)
UCLA: down 3.9 points (from 85th to 101st)
Colorado: down 3.3 points (from 78th to 96th)
Illinois: down 3.2 points (from 23rd to 32nd)
I guess the surprise here is that someone fell further than Syracuse. At 69th overall, this is officially Florida’s worst team since 1979, when the Gators went 0-10-1 in Charley Pell’s first season. If you’re going to struggle, I guess you might as well struggle at a historic level.
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am once again awarding the Heisman every single week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second and so on). And with just two weeks remaining in the race, we have ourselves a new leader.
0:57
Highlight: Diego Pavia sets Vandy record with 484 passing yards in win over UK
Pavia accounts for 532 total yards and six total touchdowns as the No. 14 Commodores blow out the Wildcats in Nashville, 45-17.
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (33-for-39 passing for 484 yards, 5 TDs and 1 INT, plus 63 non-sack rushing yards and a touchdown against Kentucky).
2. Arch Manning, Texas (18-for-30 passing for 389 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown and a receiving touchdown against Arkansas).
3. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (19-for-23 passing for 469 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Rice).
4. Joe Jackson, Kansas State (24 carries for 293 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 19 receiving yards against Utah).
5. Raleek Brown, Arizona State (22 carries for 255 yards and a touchdown, plus 33 receiving yards and a TD against Colorado).
6. LJ Martin, BYU (32 carries for 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 44 receiving yards against Cincinnati).
7. Wyatt Young, North Texas (8 catches for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns against Rice).
8. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (16-for-20 passing for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 82 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Coastal Carolina).
9. Ja’Kyrian Turner, Pitt (21 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown, plus 12 receiving yards against Georgia Tech).
10. Jordan Kwiatkowski, Central Michigan (14 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 1 sack and 1 forced fumble against Kent State).
What a week for enormous performances. Any of the top seven guys here might have finished first in some other week. When I was watching Wyatt Young break what felt like 17 tackles on his way to an 84-yard touchdown against Rice, I thought he might take the top spot. He ended up seventh.
In the end, I didn’t have any doubt about the No. 1 spot. The biggest story for Vanderbilt against Kentucky was that its defense showed up for the first time in a few weeks — a very welcome sight with Tennessee on deck in a potential win-and-in game — but Diego Pavia was absolutely ridiculous as well. In his past three games, he has thrown for 1,226 yards (408.7 per game!) with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. Three straight iffy performances in October threw him off the Heisman path a bit, but as you’ll see below, his November work has put him a nose in front in the points race, at least.
Honorable mention:
• Carson Beck, Miami (27-for-32 passing for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns against Virginia Tech).
• Devon Dampier, Utah (18-for-33 passing for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 110 non-sack rushing yards and 2 TDs against Kansas State).
• Joe Fagnano, UConn (33-for-46 passing for 446 yards and 3 touchdowns against Florida Atlantic).
• Kevin Jennings, SMU (29-for-37 passing for 303 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Louisville).
• Amari Odom, Kennesaw State (24-for-34 passing for 387 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 52 non-sack rushing yards and a TD against Missouri State).
• Darryl Peterson, Wisconsin (6 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 2 pass breakups against Illinois).
• Dominic Richardson, Tulsa (28 carries for 203 yards and a touchdown, plus 22 receiving yards against Army).
• Jalen Stroman, Notre Dame (eight tackles, two TFLs and a pick-six against Syracuse).
Joe Fagnano threw for 446 yards, and I couldn’t even squeeze him in the top 10!
Through 13 weeks, here are your points leaders. (Points over the past four weeks is the tiebreaker):
1. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt (34 points)
2. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (29 points, 13 in the past four weeks)
3. Ty Simpson, Alabama (29 points, zero in the past four weeks)
4. Taylen Green, Arkansas (27 points)
5. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana (26 points)
6. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (25 points, six in the past four weeks)
7. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (25 points, zero in the past four weeks)
8. Demond Williams Jr., Washington (21 points)
9. Haynes King, Georgia Tech (18 points)
10. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas (16 points, eight in the past four weeks)
We still have seven players within 10 points of the lead, so this is far from settled.
The current ESPN BET betting odds still have Mendoza (-130) and Sayin (+425) leading the way, with Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love (+500) and Pavia (+600) as the only other realistic contenders. (A&M’s Marcel Reed is at +1400, and somehow Georgia’s Gunner Stockton is only at +3500.) We still have time for a shift in conventional wisdom – I’d personally view this as a three-way tie between Mendoza, Sayin and Pavia at this point – but it still looks like we may be gearing up for a winner-take-all Mendoza-Sayin matchup in the Big Ten championship game.
My 20 favorite games of the weekend
It’s fair to admit that most of the biggest games of the week weren’t incredibly gripping, but if you did a little digging around, you were rewarded.
1. Division II: Benedict 25, Wingate 24. This was the only possible choice for the No. 1 spot. Benedict trailed 24-7 in the first round of the D-II playoffs, and Wingate was lining up for a 21-yard chip-shot field goal to go up 20. But Isaiah Isidore blocked the field goal and returned it 95 yards for a touchdown. Then Tre Simmons scored with 3:36 left to make it 24-19. The Bulldogs got the ball back at their 14 with 19 seconds left and quickly threw three incompletions. It was time to try one of those lateral-fest plays that never work.
It worked.
1:12
Division II playoff game ends on unbelievable cross-field lateral TD play
Benedict stuns Wingate with a cross-field lateral to score a long touchdown to advance in the Division II playoffs.
It apparently worked so well that the cameraperson lost his or her mind halfway through. Malik Mullins’ touchdown, after a perfectly timed lateral and an absurd burst of speed, gave Benedict the win and a spot in the second round. Best ending of the season.
2. No. 12 Utah 51, Kansas State 47. I don’t know what happened to Utah’s defense in this one, and I don’t know whether the CFP committee will punish the Utes for falling short of expectations, but this was a magnificent game all the same.
3. FCS: Bethune-Cookman 38, Florida A&M 34. The HBCU universe always provides drama, but it outdid itself this week, not only with the Benedict game but also with this Florida Classic thriller, which saw four lead changes — and four long touchdowns — in the final eight minutes. Jamal Hailey put FAMU up 27-24 with a 72-yard touchdown run, but Bethune-Cookman went ahead 44 seconds later on a 67-yard pass from journeyman Timmy McClain to Javon Ross. FAMU went back ahead with 2:19 remaining, but on fourth-and-8 with 27 seconds left, McClain found Josh Evans somehow wide open for a 41-yard score.
The moment the Classic was ours 🫨🫨🫨🫨 pic.twitter.com/FNmtrPjbnf
— 🏈 Bethune-Cookman Football (@BCUGridiron) November 23, 2025
4. UConn 48, Florida Atlantic 45. UConn hasn’t had the greatest attention span in the world against lesser teams, but that’s been great for our entertainment. The Huskies led 24-3 after the first quarter, but FAU took the lead on a 90-yard Dominique Henry catch-and-run midway through the third. UConn responded with 14 quick points, but FAU took another lead with 2:11 remaining. UConn drove 75 yards in 1:45 to make it 48-45, but FAU drove 56 yards in just 22 seconds … but badly missed a 36-yard field goal at the buzzer.
Wheeeee!
5. Duke 32, North Carolina 25. UCLA gave us one of the worst fake field goals you’ll ever see late Saturday night (I’m not even going to share a link; you’ll have to look it up to find that monstrosity), but that only provided balance to the universe because a few hours earlier Duke pulled off one of the smoothest fakes you’ll ever see. Run, kicker, run!
DUKE PULLS OFF THE FAKE FIELD GOAL 🤯 @DukeFOOTBALL pic.twitter.com/syr9FoOdue
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) November 22, 2025
Todd Pelino‘s sprint set up the winning TD.
6. Tulsa 26, Army 25. With its methodical, relentless option game, you would figure Army would be one of the worst teams against which to attempt a late comeback. But trailing 25-14 with less than five minutes remaining, Tulsa scored on a 48-yard Seth Morgan field goal, then picked off a Cale Hellums pass (!) and scored with 1:53 left. The Golden Hurricane missed a game-tying 2-point conversion and couldn’t recover the onside kick, but no worries! They stuffed Army on fourth down, and Dominic Richardson rushed five times for 37 yards to set Morgan up for a game-winning 27-yarder.
7. Iowa 20, Michigan State 17. This one was remarkably similar to Tulsa-Army, only it was the favorite making the comeback. After a dire three quarters, Iowa found itself down 17-7 heading into the fourth, but a Drew Stevens field goal and a Jacob Gill touchdown tied the game with 1:29 left. Overtime? Nope! Michigan State went four-and-out, and Mark Gronowski completed three passes for 54 yards to set Stevens up with a 44-yarder. Being that he’s awesome, Stevens made it with ease.
DREW STEVENS WINS IT FOR IOWA ON SENIOR DAY ‼️@HawkeyeFootball pic.twitter.com/xl3IO3Wl9g
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 23, 2025
It was his fourth career winner.
8. FCS: Tarleton State 45, Austin Peay 44 (OT). On one hand, Tarleton State has slipped a bit in November and won’t enter the FCS playoffs with great title odds. On the other hand, all we care is that we’re entertained! And this game was bonkers. APSU went up early and led 28-14 at halftime, and TSU had to tie the game on three separate occasions — including on a 41-yard Corbin Poston field goal with four seconds left — to force overtime. The Texans scored in two plays in overtime, but APSU responded with a 25-yard Chris Parson run on its first play. The Governors, 18.5-point underdogs, naturally went for two points and the win … and Parson airmailed an open receiver. Oof.
1:18
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
Austin Peay Governors vs. Tarleton Texans: Full Highlights
9. FCS: South Dakota State 34, North Dakota 31 (OT). You know who didn’t airmail an open receiver? SDSU’s Jack Henry. The Jackrabbits trailed 20-7 with 17 minutes left but made a 21-0 charge before UND tied the game at 28-28 with 1:52 left. The Fighting Hawks settled for a field goal to open overtime, and SDSU was looking at a long-range FG to tie, but Henry scrambled to his right and found a leaping Grahm Goering for the game-winner.
0:24
Jack Henry throws 23-yard touchdown pass vs. North Dakota
Jack Henry connects for 23-yard TD pass
Not only was this a clutch play, but it was a season-saver — the Jackrabbits edged their way into the FCS playoffs because of it.
10. Louisiana 34, Arkansas State 30 (Thursday). We got a wacky win probability chart for this one. ASU led at halftime thanks to both a Cody Sigler fumble return touchdown and a Chauncy Cobb kick return score. UL eased ahead in the second half, but ASU drove 89 yards in just over two late minutes. Unfortunately, the Red Wolves needed a 90th yard. Jaylen Raynor was stopped at the 1 as time expired.
11. Northwestern 38, Minnesota 35.
12. New Mexico State 34, UTEP 31.
13. Louisiana Tech 34, Liberty 28 (OT).
14. ForeverLawn Bowl: Wabash 32, Ohio Northern 31.
15. FCS: Albany 31, Monmouth 24.
16. TCU 17, No. 23 Houston 14.
17. Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34.
18. FCS: Tennessee Tech 20, UT Martin 17.
19. Division III: Wilkes 37, Shenandoah 35.
20. FCS: Montana State 31, Montana 28.
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Bradford Doolittle
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Bradford Doolittle
ESPN Staff Writer
- MLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com
- Been with ESPN since 2013
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David Schoenfield
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David Schoenfield
ESPN Senior Writer
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
It’s hot stove season! The 2025-26 MLB offseason is officially here, and we have you covered with grades and analysis for every major signing and trade this winter.
Whether it’s a big-money free agent signing that changes the course of your team’s future or a blockbuster trade, we’ll weigh in with what it all means for next season and beyond.
ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield will evaluate each move as it happens, so follow along here — this story will continue to be updated. Check back in for the freshest analysis through the start of spring training.
Related links: Tracker | Top 50 free agents | Fantasy spin
Mets get:
2B Marcus Semien
Rangers get:
OF Brandon Nimmo
Mets grade: C+
One-for-one swaps of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the label “blockbuster” starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It is also a trade involving two post-30 players carrying multiple seasons of pricey contracts. Lackluster would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations on this deal at Baseball Trade Values illustrate nicely the underwater contracts involved.
For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Though he challenged for AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since headed south, as tends to happen to middle infielders with his expanding chronology. Over the past two seasons, his bat has been just below league average — and while there is plenty of value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious baseline for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive forecast isn’t as good as that of New York’s heretofore presumed regular at second base, Jeff McNeil, who might still get plenty of run at other positions.
That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second career Gold Glove, an honor backed up by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the keystone ever since he moved over from shortstop. Though Semien’s contract features a higher average annual value than Nimmo ($25 million in terms of the luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it’s of shorter duration and the move will cut into New York’s considerable longer-term obligations.
One thing that is head-scratching here: The Mets are pretty deep in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuna to Ronny Mauricio to Jett Williams, all of whom carry considerably more upside than Semien at this point.
Rangers grade: C+
If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared with what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis Garcia. He’s not as good a defender as Garcia, especially in arm strength and, in fact, is likelier to play in left in Texas rather than Garcia’s old spot in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glover at his position and so now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are putting a dent in their defense.
We’ll see how that shakes out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a bump from the switch in venues. He’s typically hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, while strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a solid place to hit for left-handed batters.
The project in Texas is clear. It’s about not just improving the offensive production but also pursuing that goal by shifting the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slim upgrade on Semien and a downgrade from Garcia. But Nimmo is a much better hitter for average than both, and he has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both traits the Rangers’ offense very much needed.
Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a longer-term issue than it will be in 2026, when he’ll make $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reshuffle while reigning in the spending, and this is the kind of deal that aids that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new vista for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a tier below where they were during his Mets prime. — Bradford Doolittle
Orioles get:
LF Taylor Ward
Angels get:
RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Orioles grade: D
The first major trade of last offseason came on Nov. 22, when Cincinnati dealt Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This one leaked on Nov. 18, so we’re getting an earlier start. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal is the vanguard of a coming baseball swap meet. Trades are fun.
Alas, although it was easy to understand the reasoning for both sides in the aforementioned Reds-Royals deal, I’m not sure I get this one so much from the Orioles side. The caveat is that maybe Baltimore’s brass, which obviously knows a lot more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (just made that one up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.
I don’t like to get too actuarial about these things, but you kind of have to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season whereas Rodriguez has four seasons of team control left on his service time clock. Thus, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season as he attempts to come back from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that play out.
Ward turns 32 next month, likely putting him at the outer rim of his career prime. He has been a decent player — an average of 3.0 bWAR over the past four years — but his skill set is narrow. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past couple of seasons and has shown diminishment both on defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat.
On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 homers in 2025, but his underlying Statcast-generated expected numbers suggest he overachieved in that area a bit. The righty-swinging Ward does generate power to the opposite field, but his power game is still likely to see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He’s patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he’s almost always hunting a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes.
That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a fly ball-heavy distribution, has led to a consistently plummeting average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. He’s a take-and-rake guy who doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which might supercharge his walk rate enough to bring his OBP up to an acceptable level, which it won’t be given the batting average trend.
And all of this would be fine for one year of a productive hitter likely to earn $12-14 million through the arbitration process. But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I’m not seeing it.
Angels grade: A-
This is about upside for an Angels staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. To expect Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he will never get there. His big league results (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP over 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. The allure of Rodriguez remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons.
And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the game’s top pitching prospect in 2022 and rated him nearly as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.
Whether or not there is much of a possibility of Rodriguez getting there is almost beside the point. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underachieving/injury-prone hurlers, but maybe the Angels can make some strides in this area.
The deal opens up a hole in the outfield for the Angels with no obvious plug-in solution from the organization. But finding a free agent replacement who approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote for going after Cody Bellinger.
The possibility of that kind of upgrade and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the low-low price of one season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up. — Doolittle
The deal: 5 years, $92.5 million
Grade: A-
If there was an award for free agent prediction most to likely come true, Josh Naylor returning to the Seattle Mariners would have been the front-runner, so it’s hardly a surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking loss in Game 7 of the ALCS, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was its top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare — and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.
It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been searching for a long-term solution at first base for, oh, going on 20 years — really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s.
Naylor, meanwhile, came over at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a huge spark down the stretch, hitting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, good for 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished at .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor spoke about how he loves hitting there. The numbers back that up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534.
Importantly for a Seattle lineup that is heavy on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the 17th-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s entire game is a bit of an oxymoron. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in chase rate but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!) but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19-for-19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t look like he’d be quick in the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the past four seasons.
He’s not a star — 3.1 WAR in 2025 was a career high — but he’s a safe, predictable player to bank on for the next few years. This deal runs through his age-33 season, so maybe there’s some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing and so will Mariners fans. — David Schoenfield
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