Syria’s rebel offensive: A setback for the regime, or the start of a major escalation?
It had appeared to be a conflict frozen in time, but the operation launched with blistering speed by Syrian opposition fighters has turned all of that upside down.
It is also a potent reminder of the complexity of the Syrian conflict.
What was a stalemate has revealed that the regime of President Bashar al Assad may very well be standing on clay feet.
Whether the rebel push continues its momentum and transforms into a wider offensive remains to be seen – but its significance politically and militarily is immense.
Aleppo was once the country’s largest city and was a key battleground in the civil war – it has also been a stronghold for the regime.
Rebels stand in front of University of Aleppo. Pic: Reuters
What’s happening now is a major blow to the government as it shows how fragile its grip on power has become.
It also demonstrates that the rebels have the determination and the military capability to challenge regime authority in key strategic areas.
The rebels comprise many different groups who’ve fought against the regime since the start of the Syrian uprising.
Among them, the biggest is Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which controls most of the north-western territory held by the opposition.
Opposition forces take control of areas outside Aleppo. Pic: AP
The group was linked to the terrorist group al Qaeda but has renounced those ties.
Much of the video that’s emerging is reminiscent of the violent uprising against the Assad dictatorship in 2011 – descending into a bloodbath from the so-called ‘Arab Spring’.
Officially, the offensive was launched as a way of stopping regime air strikes on opposition-held territory.
It may be that the rebels themselves are surprised by the lack of government resistance and how successful they’ve been in the space of three short days.
The Syrian government has portrayed what’s happening as a “large-scale terrorist attack” and has vowed to reverse the losses.
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Syrian rebels take flag from monument
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There are of course wider questions as to why this is happening now?
President Assad would most likely have lost the war had he not been bailed out by the Russian air force and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as well as a tapestry of militant groups – including Hezbollah.
Russia is struggling for resource in Ukraine and has diverted its air force from the Syrian theatre.
Iran and its proxies have been battered by Israel after they tried to exploit the carnage of the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel.
With these forces not as strong as they were, there’s been a chink in the regime’s armour and the rebels it would seem have seen their chance and not let the opportunity escape.
The question now is whether the opposition fighters will be able to remain on the front foot and consolidate their position and perhaps even launch further attacks on centres of power.
At the moment, the situation remains highly volatile and uncertain.
The advance certainly challenges the established order, but it is still far from clear whether this is a setback for the regime, or the start of a major phase of escalation.
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South Korea’s parliament has voted to impeach acting President Han Duck-soo.
The move could deepen a constitutional crisis triggered by a short-lived period of martial law declared by Mr Han’s predecessor, Yoon Suk Yeol.
After the vote on Friday, Mr Han said he will step aside to avoid more chaos.
The opposition brought impeachment proceedings against him over his refusal to immediately fill three places on South Korea’s Constitutional Court – where the former president is on trial.
Three justices had been approved by parliament – where the opposition Democratic Party has a majority – but Mr Han said he would not formally appoint them without bipartisan agreement.
South Korea’s constitution says that six justices on the nine-member Constitutional Court must agree to remove an impeached president, meaning the current justices must vote unanimously to remove Mr Yoon.
The court has said it can deliberate without the full nine-member bench.
Leader of the opposition Lee Jae-myung had vowed to go ahead with the impeachment, accusing Mr Han of “acting for insurrection”.
A man waves a South Korean flag at an anti-Yoon Suk Yeol protest. Pic: AP
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Now that Mr Han – who is also prime minister – has been impeached, his finance minister Choi Sang-mok is set to take over as acting president.
Politicians in the 300 parliament voted 192-0 to impeach him. Governing party politicians boycotted the vote.
Following the vote, Mr Han said he would respect the decision and will await a ruling from the Constitutional Court on the impeachment motion.
Mr Han will be stripped of the powers and duties of the president until the Constitutional Court decides whether to dismiss or reinstate him – the same as with Mr Yoon.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would be open to peace talks with Ukraine in Slovakia “if it comes to that”.
Mr Putin said Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico, who this week visited the Kremlin, had offered his country as a location for negotiations as the war in Ukraine nears the three-year mark.
The Russian president said the Slovakian authorities “would be happy to provide their own country as a platform for negotiations”.
“We are not opposed, if it comes to that. Why not? Since Slovakia takes such a neutral position,” Mr Putin said, adding he was resolved to end the conflict in Ukraine, which started with a land, air and sea invasion of Russia’s smaller neighbour in February 2022.
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Ukraine is yet to comment on Slovakia’s offer but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly criticised the country, which borders Ukraine, for the friendly tone Mr Fico has struck towards Russia since his return to power after an election in 2023.
Mr Fico has been critical of EU support for Ukraine, where millions have been displaced since Mr Putin’s decision to launch a “special military operation” to “denazify” and “demilitarise” the 37 million-strong country.
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Mr Zelenskyy on North Korea and Slovakian PM in Moscow
Mr Putin has repeatedly said Russia is open to talks to end the conflict with Kyiv, but that it would nevertheless achieve its goals in Ukraine.
He has previously demanded Ukraine withdraw its bid to join NATO and asked it to recognise Russia’s gains. Both Kyiv and the West have rejected those demands.
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But while Mr Zelenskyy had for most of the conflict insisted Ukraine would keep fighting until it regained control of its territories, his position on negotiations now appears to have shifted.
In an interview with Sky News, Mr Zelenskyy suggested a ceasefire deal could be struck if the Ukrainian territory he controls could be taken “under the NATO umbrella”.
This would then allow him to negotiate the return of the rest later “in a diplomatic way”.
The Ukrainian leader admitted last week his forces would be unable to recapture any territories occupied by Russia in the east of Ukraine and the Crimean peninsula.
While Kyiv would never recognise Russia’s rule, he said diplomacy is the only option to get Mr Putin to withdraw his army.
The war in Ukraine has taken a devastating toll on Russia too. UK government and military analysis estimates that Russia has lost around half a million troops killed or wounded in Ukraine.
Such is the pressure on manpower that The Kremlin turned to one of its remaining allies, North Korea, to provide additional forces.
It’s thought 10,000 to 12,000 troops were sent in October to fight alongside the Russian military in the fighting in the Kursk region.
However it’s suggested their lack of combat experience has resulted in heavy losses, with Mr Zelenskyy saying earlier this week that 3,000 North Korean troops have already been killed and wounded.
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