Syria’s rebel offensive: A setback for the regime, or the start of a major escalation?
It had appeared to be a conflict frozen in time, but the operation launched with blistering speed by Syrian opposition fighters has turned all of that upside down.
It is also a potent reminder of the complexity of the Syrian conflict.
What was a stalemate has revealed that the regime of President Bashar al Assad may very well be standing on clay feet.
Whether the rebel push continues its momentum and transforms into a wider offensive remains to be seen – but its significance politically and militarily is immense.
Aleppo was once the country’s largest city and was a key battleground in the civil war – it has also been a stronghold for the regime.
Rebels stand in front of University of Aleppo. Pic: Reuters
What’s happening now is a major blow to the government as it shows how fragile its grip on power has become.
It also demonstrates that the rebels have the determination and the military capability to challenge regime authority in key strategic areas.
The rebels comprise many different groups who’ve fought against the regime since the start of the Syrian uprising.
Among them, the biggest is Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which controls most of the north-western territory held by the opposition.
Opposition forces take control of areas outside Aleppo. Pic: AP
The group was linked to the terrorist group al Qaeda but has renounced those ties.
Much of the video that’s emerging is reminiscent of the violent uprising against the Assad dictatorship in 2011 – descending into a bloodbath from the so-called ‘Arab Spring’.
Officially, the offensive was launched as a way of stopping regime air strikes on opposition-held territory.
It may be that the rebels themselves are surprised by the lack of government resistance and how successful they’ve been in the space of three short days.
The Syrian government has portrayed what’s happening as a “large-scale terrorist attack” and has vowed to reverse the losses.
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Syrian rebels take flag from monument
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There are of course wider questions as to why this is happening now?
President Assad would most likely have lost the war had he not been bailed out by the Russian air force and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as well as a tapestry of militant groups – including Hezbollah.
Russia is struggling for resource in Ukraine and has diverted its air force from the Syrian theatre.
Iran and its proxies have been battered by Israel after they tried to exploit the carnage of the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel.
With these forces not as strong as they were, there’s been a chink in the regime’s armour and the rebels it would seem have seen their chance and not let the opportunity escape.
The question now is whether the opposition fighters will be able to remain on the front foot and consolidate their position and perhaps even launch further attacks on centres of power.
At the moment, the situation remains highly volatile and uncertain.
The advance certainly challenges the established order, but it is still far from clear whether this is a setback for the regime, or the start of a major phase of escalation.
World
Ukraine war: 14 killed as Russian missile and drone attacks strike Kyiv – including American citizen
Russian missile and drone attacks have killed 14 people in Kyiv overnight, according to Ukrainian officials.
A 62-year-old US citizen who suffered shrapnel wounds is among the dead.
At least 99 others were wounded in strikes that hollowed out a residential building and destroyed dozens of apartments.
Pic: AP
Emergency workers were at the scene to rescue people from under the rubble.
Images show a firefighter was among those hurt, with injured residents evacuated from their homes.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the attack as “one of the most terrifying attacks on Kyiv” – and said Russian forces had fired 440 drones and 32 missiles as civilians slept in their homes.
“[Putin] wants the war to go on,” he said. “It is troubling when the powerful of this world turn a blind eye to it.”
Pic: AP
Ukraine’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said 27 locations across the capital have been hit – including educational institutions and critical infrastructure.
He claimed the attack, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, was one of the largest on the capital since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
Drones swarmed over the city, with an air raid alert remaining in force for seven hours.
One person was killed and 17 others injured as a result of separate Russian drone strikes in the port city of Odesa.
Pic: Reuters
It comes as the G7 summit in Canada continues, which Ukraine’s leader is expected to attend.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy was due to hold talks with Donald Trump – but the president has announced he is unexpectedly returning to Washington because of tensions in the Middle East.
Ukraine’s foreign minister says Moscow’s decision to attack Kyiv during the summit is a signal of disrespect to the US.
Moscow has launched a record number of drones and missiles in recent weeks, and says the attacks are in retaliation for a Ukrainian operation that targeted warplanes in airbases deep within Russian territory.
Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko says fires broke out in two of the city’s districts as a result of debris from drones shot down by the nation’s air defences.
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Pic: AP
On X, Ukraine’s foreign ministry wrote: “Russia’s campaign of terror against civilians continues. Its war against Ukraine escalates with increased brutality.
“The only way to stop Russia is tighter pressure – through sanctions, more defence support for Ukraine, and limiting Russia’s ability to keep sowing war.”
Olena Lapyshnak, who lived in one of the destroyed buildings, said: “It’s horrible, it’s scary, in one moment there is no life. I can only curse the Russians, that’s all I can say. They shouldn’t exist in this world.”
World
Israeli tank shelling kills 51 people waiting for aid in Khan Younis, Hamas-run health ministry says
Israeli tank shellfire has killed at least 51 Palestinians in Khan Younis, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
Hundreds of others have been injured, with “dozens of critical cases” arriving at a medical complex.
It is feared that the number of fatalities will rise.
Pic: Reuters
The strikes took place as people waited for United Nations and commercial aid trucks in the southern Gaza city.
Witnesses said that Israeli forces carried out an airstrike on a nearby home before opening fire toward the crowd.
“Emergency, intensive care, and operating rooms are experiencing severe overcrowding,” a statement said.
Officials say medical staff “are operating with limited supplies of life-saving medicines” – with the ministry renewing an “urgent appeal” to increase aid.
Pic: Reuters
Hours earlier, Donald Trump had joined other G7 leaders to call for a “de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza”.
The Israeli military is yet to comment on this incident.
On Monday, Gaza’s health ministry said at least 34 people were shot dead near food distribution centres.
This was the highest reported daily total since Israel and US-backed aid centres opened last month, with thousands of Palestinians moving through Israeli military-controlled areas to reach them.
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