Syria’s rebel offensive: A setback for the regime, or the start of a major escalation?
It had appeared to be a conflict frozen in time, but the operation launched with blistering speed by Syrian opposition fighters has turned all of that upside down.
It is also a potent reminder of the complexity of the Syrian conflict.
What was a stalemate has revealed that the regime of President Bashar al Assad may very well be standing on clay feet.
Whether the rebel push continues its momentum and transforms into a wider offensive remains to be seen – but its significance politically and militarily is immense.
Aleppo was once the country’s largest city and was a key battleground in the civil war – it has also been a stronghold for the regime.
Rebels stand in front of University of Aleppo. Pic: Reuters
What’s happening now is a major blow to the government as it shows how fragile its grip on power has become.
It also demonstrates that the rebels have the determination and the military capability to challenge regime authority in key strategic areas.
The rebels comprise many different groups who’ve fought against the regime since the start of the Syrian uprising.
Among them, the biggest is Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which controls most of the north-western territory held by the opposition.
Opposition forces take control of areas outside Aleppo. Pic: AP
The group was linked to the terrorist group al Qaeda but has renounced those ties.
Much of the video that’s emerging is reminiscent of the violent uprising against the Assad dictatorship in 2011 – descending into a bloodbath from the so-called ‘Arab Spring’.
Officially, the offensive was launched as a way of stopping regime air strikes on opposition-held territory.
It may be that the rebels themselves are surprised by the lack of government resistance and how successful they’ve been in the space of three short days.
The Syrian government has portrayed what’s happening as a “large-scale terrorist attack” and has vowed to reverse the losses.
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Syrian rebels take flag from monument
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There are of course wider questions as to why this is happening now?
President Assad would most likely have lost the war had he not been bailed out by the Russian air force and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as well as a tapestry of militant groups – including Hezbollah.
Russia is struggling for resource in Ukraine and has diverted its air force from the Syrian theatre.
Iran and its proxies have been battered by Israel after they tried to exploit the carnage of the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel.
With these forces not as strong as they were, there’s been a chink in the regime’s armour and the rebels it would seem have seen their chance and not let the opportunity escape.
The question now is whether the opposition fighters will be able to remain on the front foot and consolidate their position and perhaps even launch further attacks on centres of power.
At the moment, the situation remains highly volatile and uncertain.
The advance certainly challenges the established order, but it is still far from clear whether this is a setback for the regime, or the start of a major phase of escalation.
World
Tomorrowland: ‘Devastating’ blaze destroys main stage at major festival – two days before it was due to begin
A huge fire has destroyed the main stage of a major festival in Belgium – two days before it was due to begin.
Tomorrowland is a dance music event as big as Glastonbury – and David Guetta was due to perform.
Footage showed flames and thick plumes of black smoke engulfing the stage and spreading to nearby woodland on Wednesday.
The fire gutted the main stage
Fire crews attempt to bring the blaze under control
The annual festival in the town of Boom, north of Brussels, is one of the biggest in Europe and attracts about 400,000 people over two consecutive weekends.
It is famous for its immersive and elaborate designs and attracts big names within dance music – including Guetta, best known for tracks When Love Takes Over and Titanium.
Dutch DJs Martin Garrix and Charlotte de Witte were also due to perform, along with the likes of Swedish House Mafia, Eric Prydz and Alok.
Black smoke could be seen rising into the sky
The festival’s website described the creative elements which went into the elaborate main stage.
The theme, described as Orbyz, was “set in a magical universe made entirely out of ice” and “full of mythical creatures”.
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Organisers said no one was injured in the blaze but confirmed “our beloved main stage has been severely damaged”, adding they were “devastated”.
Spokesperson Debby Wilmsen added: “We received some truly terrible news today. A fire broke out on the Tomorrowland site … and our main stage was essentially destroyed there, which is truly awful.
“That’s a stage that took years to build, with so much love and passion. So I think a lot of people are devastated.”
Spokesperson Debby Wilmsen told reporters ‘a lot of people are devastated’
Despite the fire, Tomorrowland organisers said they were still expecting 38,000 festivalgoers at DreamVille, the event’s campsite.
Israel has shown little respect for international borders since becoming the unrivalled military hegemon of the Middle East. Today that meant an Israeli airstrike on a government building in Damascus.
Israel says its attack on a Syrian defence ministry facility was intended as a warning to the new government: stay out of the part of southern Syria we have occupied or else.
Israel has moved into parts of the south of the country, built military bases and declared a line of control.
Smoke rises from an Israeli airstrike that hit the Syrian Defence Ministry in Damascus. Pic: AP
On Monday, Syrian tanks heading south to try and restore order following an outbreak of factional fighting were attacked by Israeli warplanes.
“The presence of such vehicles in southern Syria could pose a threat to Israel,” stated the Israel Defence Forces.
In reality, Syria’s ageing tanks pose minimal threat to Israel’s state-of-the art military.
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Syrian presenter interrupted by Israeli airstrike
The Syrian armour was attacked as it entered the area around Sweida in the Druze heartland of southern Syria following factional fighting there.
The flare-up reportedly began with clashes between Bedouin and Druze groups that ended in scores killed.
The background to the escalation is complicated.
At least three Druze militia groups are divided in their loyalties to different religious leaders and differ over how they should respond to calls to assimilate into the new post-revolutionary Syria.
Druze from Syria and Israel protest on the Israeli-Syrian border.
Pic: AP
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Israel is becoming more and more involved in Syria’s internecine war and says it will remain there indefinitely “to protect our communities and thwart any threat”.
Its critics say Israel is operating a policy of divide and rule in Syria, weakening the fledgling government and creating a buffer zone to protect the border with the Golan Heights – originally Syrian territory that it has occupied and annexed for almost half a century.
Since the fall of the Assad regime, Israel has used airstrikes to destroy of much of Syria’s military capability weakening its ability to impose control on outlying regions. This makes it more not less likely Israel will have a volatile unstable state on its northern border.
Syrian security forces walk along a street in the southern Druze city of Sweida. Pic: Reuters
America and European powers have chosen to normalise relations with the new government in Damascus and lift sanctions.
In contrast Israel has occupied its territory, bombed its military and today hit one of its government buildings in the capital with an airstrike.
Since its crushing military campaigns against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, Israel has emerged as the unchallenged military power of the region.
There is however a limit to what blunt force can achieve alone. It requires diplomacy to achieve lasting gains and Israel’s repeated assaults on multiple neighbours combined with its relentless campaign in Gaza are winning it few friends in the region.
Israeli airstrikes have targeted the Syrian military headquarters in Damascus amid renewed clashes in the country.
The gate of the Ministry of Defence in the Syrian capital was targeted by two warning missiles from an Israeli reconnaissance aircraft.
State-owned Elekhbariya TV said the Israeli strike had wounded two civilians, the Reuters news agency reported.
Smoke rises from Syria’s defence ministry building in Damascus. Pic: Reuters
It came as Israeli airstrikes targeted security and army vehicles in the southern city of Sweida, where the Druze faith is one of the major religious groups – marking the third consecutive day Israel has struck Syrian forces.
The Israeli military confirmed it had “struck the entrance gate” in Damascus – and that it would be monitoring “actions being taken against Druze civilians in southern Syria”.
The Israeli airstrike targeted Syria’s military headquarters. Pic: AP
Why Israel is getting involved in Syria’s internal fighting
Israel has shown little respect for international borders since becoming the unrivalled military hegemon of the Middle East. Today that meant an Israeli airstrike on a government building in Damascus.
Israel says its attack on a Syrian defence ministry facility was intended as a warning to the new government: stay out of the part of southern Syria we have occupied or else.
Israel has moved into parts of the south of the country, built military bases and declared a line of control.
On Monday, Syrian tanks heading south to try and restore order following an outbreak of factional fighting were attacked by Israeli warplanes.
“The presence of such vehicles in southern Syria could pose a threat to Israel,” stated the Israel Defence Forces.
In reality, Syria’s ageing tanks pose minimal threat to Israel’s state-of-the art military.
Local media said Sweida and nearby villages were coming under heavy artillery and mortar fire on Wednesday, according to Reuters.
The clashes marked the collapse of a ceasefire between Syrian government forces and Druze armed groups, with Israel also warning it would increase its involvement.
Syria said its forces had responded to being fired upon. Pic: Reuters
Israel said it was acting to protect the Druze groups through its attacks on convoys of Syrian forces.
Syria blamed militias in Sweida for violating a ceasefire agreement which had only been reached on Tuesday.
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A statement from its defence ministry said: “Military forces continue to respond to the source of fire inside the city of Sweida, while adhering to rules of engagement to protect residents, prevent harm, and ensure the safe return of those who left the city back to their homes.”
Israel’s defence minister Israel Katz said the military will continue to strike Syrian forces until they withdraw and should “leave Druze alone”, according to local reports.
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