What to look out for in Ireland’s general election – with counting under way

Published

6 months ago

December 1, 2024

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Counting is under way in Ireland’s general election.

But unlike the UK, it will take more than a few hours for all 174 seats to be filled – and much longer for a government to be formed.

Here’s three things you should look out for as the votes are being counted.

1. The main parties’ race to 88

That’s the number needed for a majority in Ireland‘s lower house of parliament, the Dail.

But the three largest parties – Fianna Fail (FF), Fine Gael (FG) and Sinn Finn (SF) – have not fielded enough candidates to reach this, so they will be on the hunt for coalition partners.

In the last election, FF won 38 seats, SF picked up 37 and FG won 35 with much the same support that Friday’s exit poll suggests.

The centre-right Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, who ruled in the last government with the Green Party, have vowed not to enter a coalition with the left-wing Sinn Fein.

So if the exit poll closely mirrors the final result, a FF-FG coalition looks likely – along with another party or independent candidates.

Explainer: How Ireland’s election voting system works

But if Sinn Fein translates their support into significantly more seats than they picked up last time, it would put the party in a stronger negotiating position – and Mary Lou McDonald could still have an outside chance of becoming Ireland’s first female taoiseach.

2. How the smaller parties fare

Ireland’s electoral system – proportional representation by single transferable vote – means smaller parties pick up more seats than their UK counterparts.

On the left, there is Labour, the Social Democrats, the Greens – all on between 4% and 6% in the exit poll – as well as the People Before Profit-Solidarity alliance.

On the right, there is SF breakaway party Aontu and several newly formed far-right parties, the largest of which is Independent Ireland.

At least one of these groups is likely to form a government with FF and FG – depending on how many seats they pick up.

3. How the independent candidates perform

A quirk of Ireland’s electoral system is the high number of independent candidates.

The exit poll put independents at 14.6% – meaning they are likely to win a significant number of seats. In 2020, independent candidates picked up 19 seats with 12.2% of the vote.

It’s likely that a three-party coalition will still fall short of reaching the 88-seat threshold for a majority, so support from independents will become important.

In 2016, nine independents were members of the Fine Gael-led minority government, with three holding ministerial posts.

The independents come from across the ideological spectrum and often focus on hyper-local issues.

World

Former UN chief’s labelling of Gaza war as ‘genocide’ marks extraordinary shift

Published

18 hours ago

May 30, 2025

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Former UN chief's labelling of Gaza war as 'genocide' marks extraordinary shift

In a stark and direct intervention, Martin Griffiths, the former UN humanitarian chief, has described the situation in Gaza as genocide.

The statement, made during an interview I conducted with Griffiths on The World, marks one of the most pointed accusations yet from a figure known to be deeply embedded in the world of international politics and diplomacy.

“I think now we’ve got to the point this is unequivocal. Of course it is genocide. Just as it is weaponising aid.

“We don’t need to look behind ourselves to see that’s the case. That should encourage us even more because we, of course, all doubted whether it would come to that level of definition.

“We all doubted whether famine is actually there. I think starvation is killing people. That’s bad enough. We don’t have to worry about famine, which is obviously there lurking in the shadows.

“Also, genocide… of course that’s what has happened. We only need to look at the statements made. Prime Minister Netanyahu has the virtue of being very clear about his objectives.”

His choice of words is extraordinary – not just for its gravity, but because it’s Griffiths who is saying it.

A veteran diplomat with decades of experience navigating complex international crises, Griffiths is known for his calm and thoughtful demeanour – not for inflammatory language.

For him to use the term “genocide” in a television interview signals a significant shift in how some within the international system are now interpreting events on the ground in Gaza – 20 months since Israel launched its war.

The timing is also noteworthy.

Just weeks earlier, Tom Fletcher, another respected former British ambassador and current UN humanitarian chief, came close to using the phrase during a UN Security Council session.

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He said: “What more evidence do you need now? Will you act decisively to prevent genocide and to ensure respect for international humanitarian law? Or will you say instead: ‘we did all we could?'”

Whilst he stopped short, his tone showed a clear change in how leading international figures now view the direction of Israeli military operations in Gaza; staggering civilian deaths, and the statements made by Israeli officials prosecuting this war.

Griffiths’ remarks now go a step further.

It comes as the British government continues to grapple with public anger over the mounting civilian toll – and faces growing scrutiny over its continued arms exports to Israel.

This latest statement by Griffiths doesn’t just reflect humanitarian concern.

As a former ambassador, he knows the weight his words carry.

And with the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsening, his warning challenges Israel’s allies to ask deeply uncomfortable questions.

Lawyers representing Israel against accusations brought by South Africa to the International Court of Justice last year – accusing its actions in Gaza of amounting to genocide – called the claims “unfounded”, “absurd” and amounting to “libel”.

They went on to say Israel respected international law and had a right to defend itself.

World

More than 40% of Europe slides into drought, including pockets of Greece, southern Italy and Spain

Published

18 hours ago

May 30, 2025

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More than 40% of Europe slides into drought, including pockets of Greece, southern Italy and Spain

Well over a third of Europe, including parts of holiday destinations like Spain, Greece and Italy, are now in drought.

March was Europe’s warmest on record – a trend driven by climate change – and also saw below average rain across large parts of the north and east of the continent.

Now 41.2% of Europe finds itself in some form of drought, according to the latest update from the EU’s European Drought Observatory, which covers 11 to 20 May.

It is most acute in pockets of south-eastern Spain, Cyprus, Greece and Albania, where the strongest “alert” category has been issued, as well as parts of Poland and Ukraine.

But broad stretches of northern and eastern Europe through France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine also drying up, sowing concerns about crop yields.

On Thursday, the UK’s Environment Agency officially declared a drought in North West England after river and reservoir levels were licked away by a dry spring.

Greece tourism is ‘unsustainable’

In Greece, “overtourism” from millions flocking to its beaches adds further pressure to water supplies, said Nikitas Mylopoulos, professor of water resource management at Thessaly University.

“The tourist sector is unsustainable and there is no planning… leading to a tremendous rise in water demand in summer,” he told Sky News.

“The islands have an intense problem of drought and water scarcity.”

Islands like Santorini and Mykonos are now forced to ship in water from Athens or desalination plants to provide for showers and swimming pools. In the past, many residents could make do with local methods like rainwater harvesting.

But agriculture is a far bigger drain on the country’s water, with waste rife and policies lacking, said Prof Mylopoulos.

Wildfire season could be ‘particularly difficult’

This year’s hot and dry conditions are also fuelling the risk of yet another fierce wildfire season in Greece.

Last week civil protection minister Ioannis Kefalogiannis warned of a “particularly difficult” summer.

He said a record 18,000 firefighters have been deployed and the drone fleet almost doubled in a bid to combat fires being fuelled by a hotter climate.

Droughts and their causes are more complicated, but scientists at World Weather Attribution say global warming is exacerbating drought in some parts of the world, including around the Mediterranean.

They found the drought of 2022, which spread across the Northern Hemisphere, was made 20 times more likely by climate change.

The International Hydropower Association said drought and intense rain in Europe are pushing power plants to “operate at the limits of their existing equipment”.

Extreme weather costs the EU about €28.3bn (£23.8bn) in lost crops and livestock per year, according to insurance firm Howden.

Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts at Newcastle University, said: “With global warming, we expect more prolonged and intense droughts and heatwaves punctuated by more intense rainfall, possibly causing flash floods.

“In recent years, we have experienced more of these atmospheric blocks, causing record heat and persistent drought, as well as severe flooding in other locations in Europe.

“Recent months have been no different, with prolonged dry conditions and heatwaves in northern Europe and floods in southern Europe.”

World

Nigeria floods: At least 117 dead as heavy flooding submerges thousands of houses

Published

21 hours ago

May 30, 2025

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Nigeria floods: At least 117 dead as heavy flooding submerges thousands of houses

At least 117 people have died and others are still missing after heavy flooding in Nigeria, an emergency official said.

Authorities initially said 21 people had died but this figure has today risen significantly.

Media reports quoting local government officials said a dam collapse has worsened the situation.

Ibrahim Hussaini, head of Niger State Emergency Management Agency, said some 3,000 houses were underwater in two communities.

Videos posted on social media show floodwater sweeping through neighbourhoods, with rooftops barely visible above the brown currents. One clip shows a tanker floating through a town.

The chairman of the Mokwa local government area suggested poor infrastructure has worsened the impact of the flooding.

Jibril Muregi has appealed to the government to start “long overdue” construction of waterways in the area under a climate resilience project.

In a similar occurrence last September, torrential rains and a dam collapse in Nigeria’s northeastern Maiduguri caused severe flooding, leaving at least 30 people dead and displacing millions.

Nigeria is prone to flooding during the rainy season, which began in April – and flooding is becoming more common and extreme as the climate warms.

Hotter air is thirstier and can hold more moisture – about 7% more for every 1C warmer – meaning it unleashes heavier flooding when it rains.

Violent rain, which killed hundreds of people in Nigeria during 2022, was made at least 80 times more likely and 20% more intense by climate change, analysis by World Weather Attribution found.