What to look out for in Ireland’s general election – with counting under way

Published

5 months ago

December 1, 2024

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Counting is under way in Ireland’s general election.

But unlike the UK, it will take more than a few hours for all 174 seats to be filled – and much longer for a government to be formed.

Here’s three things you should look out for as the votes are being counted.

1. The main parties’ race to 88

That’s the number needed for a majority in Ireland‘s lower house of parliament, the Dail.

But the three largest parties – Fianna Fail (FF), Fine Gael (FG) and Sinn Finn (SF) – have not fielded enough candidates to reach this, so they will be on the hunt for coalition partners.

In the last election, FF won 38 seats, SF picked up 37 and FG won 35 with much the same support that Friday’s exit poll suggests.

The centre-right Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, who ruled in the last government with the Green Party, have vowed not to enter a coalition with the left-wing Sinn Fein.

So if the exit poll closely mirrors the final result, a FF-FG coalition looks likely – along with another party or independent candidates.

Explainer: How Ireland’s election voting system works

But if Sinn Fein translates their support into significantly more seats than they picked up last time, it would put the party in a stronger negotiating position – and Mary Lou McDonald could still have an outside chance of becoming Ireland’s first female taoiseach.

2. How the smaller parties fare

Ireland’s electoral system – proportional representation by single transferable vote – means smaller parties pick up more seats than their UK counterparts.

On the left, there is Labour, the Social Democrats, the Greens – all on between 4% and 6% in the exit poll – as well as the People Before Profit-Solidarity alliance.

On the right, there is SF breakaway party Aontu and several newly formed far-right parties, the largest of which is Independent Ireland.

At least one of these groups is likely to form a government with FF and FG – depending on how many seats they pick up.

3. How the independent candidates perform

A quirk of Ireland’s electoral system is the high number of independent candidates.

The exit poll put independents at 14.6% – meaning they are likely to win a significant number of seats. In 2020, independent candidates picked up 19 seats with 12.2% of the vote.

It’s likely that a three-party coalition will still fall short of reaching the 88-seat threshold for a majority, so support from independents will become important.

In 2016, nine independents were members of the Fine Gael-led minority government, with three holding ministerial posts.

The independents come from across the ideological spectrum and often focus on hyper-local issues.

World

European leaders to meet in Ukraine for ‘coalition of the willing’ talks – and issue call to Russia

Published

32 mins ago

May 10, 2025

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European leaders to meet in Ukraine for 'coalition of the willing' talks - and issue call to Russia

Sir Keir Starmer will join other European leaders in Kyiv on Saturday for talks on the “coalition of the willing”.

The prime minister is attending the event alongside French President Emmanuel Macron, recently-elected German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

It will be the first time the leaders of the four countries will travel to Ukraine at the same time – on board a train to Kyiv – with their meeting hosted by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Follow latest updates on the Ukraine war

Military officers from around 30 countries have been involved in drawing up plans for the coalition, which would provide a peacekeeping force in the event of a ceasefire being agreed between Russia and Ukraine.

Ahead of the meeting on Saturday, Sir Keir, Mr Macron, Mr Tusk and Mr Merz released a joint statement voicing support for Ukraine and calling on Russia to agree to a 30-day ceasefire.

“We reiterate our backing for President Trump’s calls for a peace deal and call on Russia to stop obstructing efforts to secure an enduring peace,” they said.

“Alongside the US, we call on Russia to agree a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire to create the space for talks on a just and lasting peace.”

The leaders said they were “ready to support peace talks as soon as possible”.

But they warned that they would continue to “ratchet up pressure on Russia’s war machine” until Moscow agrees to a lasting ceasefire.

“We are clear the bloodshed must end, Russia must stop its illegal invasion, and Ukraine must be able to prosper as a safe, secure and sovereign nation within its internationally recognised borders for generations to come,” their statement added.

“We will continue to increase our support for Ukraine.”

The European leaders are set to visit the Maidan, a central square in Ukraine’s capital where flags represent those who died in the war.

They are also expected to host a virtual meeting for other leaders in the “coalition of the willing” to update them on progress towards a peacekeeping force.

This force “would help regenerate Ukraine’s armed forces after any peace deal and strengthen confidence in any future peace”, according to Number 10.

World

Ten explosions near international airport in India-administered part of Kashmir, officials say

Published

7 hours ago

May 9, 2025

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Ten explosions have been heard near Srinagar International Airport in India-administered parts of Kashmir, officials have told Reuters news agency.

The blasts followed blackouts caused by multiple projectiles, which were seen in the sky above the city of Jammu earlier on Friday.

Explosions were also heard in the Sikh holy city of Amritsar, in the neighbouring Punjab state, according to Reuters.

An Indian military official told the agency that “drones have been sighted” and “they are being engaged”.

It comes as tensions between India and Pakistan across the line of control around the region of Kashmir have boiled over this week, leading to fears of a wider conflict.

On Wednesday morning, India carried out missile strikes in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered parts of the disputed region.

The retaliation came weeks after 26 people, mainly Indian tourists, were shot dead by gunmen in an India-administered part of Kashmir last month.

The government in India said it hit nine “terrorist infrastructure” sites, while Pakistan said it was not involved in the April attack and the sites were not militant bases.

Around 48 people have been killed since Wednesday, according to casualty estimates on both sides – which have not been independently verified.

India also suspended its top cricket tournament, the Indian Premier League, as a result of rising tensions, while the Pakistan Super League moved the remainder of its season to the United Arab Emirates.

Meanwhile, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a conference on Friday that the US is in constant contact with both India and Pakistan.

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World

Russia’s Victory Day parade felt more like a celebration of war than peace

Published

7 hours ago

May 9, 2025

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Russia's Victory Day parade felt more like a celebration of war than peace

Standing on Red Square, this was an intimidating sight, which felt much more like a celebration of war rather than peace.

I could feel the ground shake as the tanks rolled past, their caterpillar tracks on the ancient cobbles providing a deafening clatter.

The hairs on the back of my neck stood up in fear as the phalanxes of troops roared “Hurrah” in response to their commander in chief.

And the sight of combat drones being paraded on their launchers was actually quite sickening. Weapons that have been at the forefront of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were paraded in a show of pomp and patriotism.

Ukraine war latest: Putin welcomes Xi at Victory Day parade

For the rest of Europe, the 80th anniversary of the end of the Second World War has been a celebration of peace, but this felt much more like a celebration of war.

And it wasn’t just military hardware on display here, but the very identity of modern Russia.

For this is a country that is now defined by its military and its memory. The glory and sacrifice of 1945 have been weaponised to give credence to Russia’s current course and to make people believe that victory is their right.

For Russians, it served as a rallying cry and there was applause when the troops who have fought against Ukraine marched past.

But for those watching in Kyiv and other European capitals, it was an overt warning that Moscow has no intention of backing down.

The parade was considerably larger in scale than in recent years, when units and hardware have been needed on the battlefield. I think it was a deliberate attempt to project an image of confidence, and so was Vladimir Putin‘s positioning of his guests.

China’s Xi Jinping was given a prime position on the Kremlin leader’s right-hand side. It was no surprise given the economic lifeline Beijing has provided, but it felt like a particularly pointed gesture to the West – that they were looking at a new world order.

Despite that appearance of confidence, there were signs of Moscow’s unease that the parade could be disrupted.

There were snipers on every rooftop. Security was extremely tight. And the mobile internet signal across the city centre was completely shut down for fear of Ukrainian drone attacks, meaning none of the international media that had gathered could broadcast any live transmissions.

After the parade finished, Putin saluted the crowds as they spontaneously erupted into rhythmic shouts of “Rus-si-ya” at the sight of him.

Another PR coup complete without interruption, he will have departed as a very happy man.