China’s AI balancing act — beating the U.S. but keeping the tech from threatening Beijing’s rule
China is looking to challenge the U.S. in artificial intelligence. China’s tech giants have launched their own AI models.
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China’s race to develop smarter-than-human artificial intelligence may put it ahead of the U.S., but such ground-breaking technology could also risk lessening the stronghold that the ruling Communist Party has over the world’s second-largest economy.
That’s the view of prominent AI scientist Max Tegmark, who told CNBC artificial general intelligence (AGI) is closer than we think and the narrative of a geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China racing to build the smartest AI is a “suicide race.”
While there is no singular definition of AGI, it is broadly taken to refer to AI that can outsmart humans.
Applications like ChatGPT — that allow users to prompt a chatbot for answers — have exploded in popularity. But many AI companies are racing to develop the next level, with AI that has human-level intelligence.
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has said that AGI could be achieved by 2025. While there are other major names in the tech sector who also think AGI is close, many others think true AGI is still very far away.
As well as competition between technology companies, there is also the geopolitical battle taking place between the U.S. and China for dominance in realms from AI to chips. While this is often portrayed as a race to be first to the latest technology, Tegmark said this is not the right framing.
“I think of this battle, this geopolitical battle to build AGI first as a ‘hopium war’,” Tegmark told CNBC in an interview last month. ” I call it the ‘hopium war’ because it’s fueled by … delusional hope that we can control AGI.”
Tegmark is the president of the Future of Life Institute, a thinktank which penned a letter last year calling for AI labs to pause the development of advanced AI systems. The letter was signed by major tech names including Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Tegmark’s concern is that AI is advancing rapidly with very few guardrails in place, and no way to control it should it begin to outsmart humans.
“We are much closer to building AGI than figuring out how to control it. And that means that the AGI race is not an arms race, it’s a suicide race,” Tegmark said.
Is China worried about AGI?
China has little incentive to build AGI, according to Tegmark. The AI scientist recalled a story in which Elon Musk told him about a “high level meeting” the Tesla boss had with Chinese government officials in early 2023. Musk said to the Chinese government that if AGI is built, China “will not be controlled by the Communist Party, but by the super intelligence,” Tegmark said.
“[Musk] got a very strong reaction. Some of them, really hadn’t thought about that, and with less than a month from that, China came out with their first AI regulations,” Tegmark said, referencing new regulation governing generative AI.
China’s ministry of foreign affairs was not immediately available for comment on the anecdote. CNBC also contacted Tesla for a response from Musk.
“The U.S. doesn’t need to convince China to not build AGI. Even if the U.S. didn’t exist, the Chinese government would have an incentive to not build it because they want to be in control,” Tegmark said.
“[The] last thing they want is to lose that control.”
China’s approach to AI
AI is a strategic priority for the Chinese government. The country’s biggest firms such as Alibaba, Huawei and Tencent have been developing their own AI models. The capabilities of those models are also advancing.
China was also among the first countries in the world to bring in regulation around various aspects of AI. The country’s internet is heavily censored and any information that appears to go against Beijing’s ideology is blocked. OpenAI’s ChatGPT is banned and it is well-noted that chatbots in China won’t answer questions related to politics and topics deemed sensitive by the Communist Party.
The country’s approach to AI is therefore an attempt to push innovation while also balancing its own interests. When it comes to AGI, China is likely to pursue a similar approach, according to analysts.
“I would not count on China to limit its own AI capabilities due to fears that such technologies would threaten Party rule. Similar predictions were made about the internet, they all proved to be false,” Kendra Schaefer, a partner at consultancy Trivium China,” told CNBC.
“China will attempt to dominate AGI while creating a techno-regulatory apparatus that limits what AGI is permitted to do domestically.”
U.S.-China AI battle
Despite Tegmark’s view that the the race to build AGI is a “hopium war,” geopoltiics remains front and center between the U.S. and China when it comes to development of the technology.
“Right now, China is viewing AI through a dual-lens: geopolitical power and domestic growth,” said Abishur Prakash, founder and geopolitical strategist at Toronto-based strategy advisory firm, The Geopolitical Business.
“With AI, China hopes to shift the balance of power around the globe, like creating a new export model. And, in parallel, China wants to power its economy in new ways, from government efficiency to business applications,” Prakash told CNBC.
The U.S. has pursued a policy of attempting to restrict China’s access to key technologies, mainly semiconductors like those designed by Nvidia, that are required to train more advanced AI models. China has responded by attempting to build its homegrown chip industry.
Will the U.S. and China partner on AI rules?
Technologists have warned of some of the risks and dangers when AGI does finally arrive. One theory is that without guardrails, AI will be able to improve itself and design new systems independently.
Tegmark believes that any such risks will be realized by both the U.S. and China, which will force both countries’ governments to individually come up with rules around AI safety.
“So my optimistic path forward is the U.S. and China unilaterally impose national safety standards to prevent their own companies from doing harm and building uncontrollable AGI, not to appease the rivals superpowers, but just to protect themselves,” Tegmark said.
“After that happens though, there’s this really interesting stage where the U.S. and China will be like, wait, how can we guarantee that North Korea doesn’t build AGI or someone else? And then the U.S. and China have an incentive now to push the rest of the world to join them into an AGI moratorium.”
Indeed, governments are already trying to work together to figure out how to create regulations and frameworks around AI. Last year, the U.K. hosted an AI safety summit, which the U.S. and China were both in attendance, to discuss potential guardrails around the technology.
But regulation and rules around AI are currently fragmented. This year, the European Union enacted the AI Act, the first major law globally governing the technology. China has its own set of rules, while many other countries have not yet moved to create any regulation.
Tegmark’s hope of co-ordination around AI safety is echoed by others.
“When the dangers of competition are greater than the rewards, nations will ideally be motivated to come together and mutually self-regulate,” Trivium China’s Schaefer said.
“Indeed, some Chinese policymakers have advocated for getting out ahead of that potential issue and establishing an international governance body under the UN – similar to the International Atomic Energy Agency – so there is desire on Beijing’s side to establish a global governance body,” she said.
File photo of Todd McKinnon, chief executive officer of Okta Inc.
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Shares of Okta popped more than 18% in extended trading Tuesday after the identity management company released third-quarter results that beat analysts’ estimates and offered rosy guidance.
Here’s how the company did:
- Earnings per share: 67 cents adjusted vs. 58 cents expected by LSEG
- Revenue: $665 million vs. $650 million expected by LSEG
Okta helps companies manage employees’ access to applications or devices with features such as single sign-on and multifactor authentication. The company swung to profitability, reporting net income of $16 million, or 9 cents per share, during the quarter, compared with a net loss of $81 million, or 49 cents per share, in the same period last year.
Revenue increased 14% from $569 million a year ago, according to a release. The company reported $651 million in subscription revenue for the quarter, beating the $635 million average analyst estimate, according to Street Account.
“Our solid Q3 results were underpinned by continued strong profitability and cash flow,” Okta CEO Todd McKinnon said in a statement. “The focused investments we’ve made in our partner ecosystem, the public sector vertical, and large customers are materializing in our business with each of these areas contributing meaningfully to top-line growth.”
For the fourth quarter, Okta said it expects to report revenue between $667 million and $669 million, topping the $651 million average estimate, according to LSEG. The company expects to report earnings of 73 cents to 74 cents per share for the period, which also exceeded estimates.
Prior to the close, Okta shares were down 10% for the year, while the Nasdaq is up 30% over that stretch.
Okta will host its quarterly call with investors at 5 p.m. ET.
Marc Benioff, chief executive officer of Salesforce, speaks during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 18, 2024.
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Salesforce shares were up 9% on Tuesday after the company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings report showed revenue and fiscal fourth-quarter guidance that exceeded analysts’ expectations.
Here’s how the company did compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings per share: $2.41 adjusted vs. $2.44 expected
- Revenue: $9.44 billion vs. $9.34 billion expected
The company’s revenue grew 8% year over year during the fiscal third quarter, which ended Oct. 31. Its net income was $1.5 billion in the quarter, up 25% from $1.2 billion a year ago.
Salesforce said it is expecting fiscal fourth-quarter sales of between $9.90 billion and $10.10 billion. Analysts were projecting $10.05 billion in fourth-quarter sales.
The company said it expects earnings per share of between $2.57 and $2.62 in the fourth quarter, compared with analysts’ expectations of $2.65.
Salesforce also raised the low end of its revenue guidance, expecting a range of $37.8 billion to $38 billion for its fiscal 2025. That’s up slightly from $37.7 billion to $38 billion previously. The new range puts the midpoint for Salesforce’s fiscal 2025 revenue guidance at $37.9 billion, ahead of analysts’ expectations of $37.86 billion.
“We delivered another quarter of exceptional financial performance across revenue, margin, cash flow, and cRPO,” Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff said in a statement. “Agentforce, our complete AI system for enterprises built into the Salesforce Platform, is at the heart of a groundbreaking transformation.”
In a call with analysts, Benioff boasted about Salesforce’s latest artificial intelligence push, including the company’s AI-powered chatbots dubbed Agentforce, which investors are closely monitoring for growth. Salesforce’s Agentforce product is an example of so-called AI agent technology. Several companies have said they believe that these advanced chatbots represent the next logical step from ChatGPT and other related tools powered by large language models.
“We’re delivering these incredible Agentforce capabilities as well,” Benioff said. “This is a bold leap in the future of work, where AI agents let humans unite to transform all of our customer interactions.”
Benioff also revealed that he ruptured his achilles tendon on a recent birthday scuba-diving trip to Fakarava, an atoll in French Polynesia. Benioff expressed disappointment that the hospital that treated him couldn’t schedule his follow-up appointments using AI agents.
“That is the message to our customers, which is how are you going to give some of your people a break, let them get back to their strategic work, let them focus on what really matters,” Benioff said.
The company in August announced that Amy Weaver would step down from her role as chief financial officer but remain in the position until the company appoints a successor, after which she will become an advisor. That same month, activist investor Starboard Value revealed that it boosted its position in Salesforce by roughly 40% in the second quarter following the firm issuing a letter earlier in the year saying that Salesforce was continuing to move “in the right direction” in regard to improving its profit margin.
Starboard Value released a presentation in October in which it noted that Salesforce “can continue to become more efficient and more profitable.”
Watch: Salesforce has been short-term overbought, says Bespoke’s Paul Hickey
Entrepreneur Brian Singerman (R) and Noelle Moseley arrive at the Tenth Breakthrough Prize Ceremony at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures in Los Angeles, California, on April 13, 2024.
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Brian Singerman, one of the earliest employees of Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, said on Tuesday that he’s stepping down as a general partner.
Singerman, who joined the firm 17 years ago and became a partner four years later, wrote in a post on X that he’s moving into the role of partner emeritus and will stay on as an “investor and strategic advisor.” Singerman is best known for supporting the firm’s investments in Elon Musk’s SpaceX and defense-tech companies like Anduril.
In exiting the partner ranks, Singerman leaves Founders Fund with three general partners: Thiel, Napoleon Ta and Trae Stephens.
Thiel helped launch Founders Fund in 2005 and has since turned it into one of the leading venture firms in the country, thanks to early bets on Facebook, SpaceX and Palantir, which he co-founded. Keith Rabois left the firm earlier this year and returned to Khosla Ventures, where he worked before joining Thiel.
“From its inception and still today, FF is the place where talented, unconventional thinkers are encouraged to follow their convictions and make world-changing bets,” Singerman wrote in his post.
It’s been a tough few years for the venture industry, with IPOs virtually drying up in late 2021 due, at the time, to rising inflation and interest rates. There have been signs of life of late, with a few companies indicating plans to go public next year, but the highest-valued private companies have yet to indicate when they’ll test out the market.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that SpaceX is considering a tender offer that would value the rocket company at $350 billion, up from $210 billion earlier this year.
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