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Pyrotechnics, fireworks, balloons – Reform UK’s conference was unlike any other. Back in September, Nigel Farage’s party used its annual gathering to underscore its message that it offers something different. 

Throughout Birmingham’s NEC, screens flashed up images of the party’s leader. When it was time for Mr Farage’s speech, delegates flocked to hear him speak. As he ascended the stage, a lengthy video montage of his life, set to music, played behind him.

Among the packed crowd of almost 4,000 members, there was the usual crop of grey-haired supporters but sprinkled among them were a surprising number of young, white men.

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Meet the young Reform voters

Since Reform’s leader made a surprise return to frontline politics, he’s leant even harder into anti-establishment rhetoric. The political elite don’t want Nigel Farage to succeed, is his mantra.

The problem Reform UK faces is that it now has five MPs, giving it a presence on the green benches alongside the very establishment it rails against. It’s next job is to try to professionalise the party beyond the cult of Nigel and widen its supporter base.

Farage’s conference speech contained a serious message; it was time for Reform to “grow up” and think about its long-term plan. Looking around the room, it seemed the future of the party might already have arrived.

While most of its supporters are still older white men. According to YouGov’s post-election analysis, Reform was the third most popular party with men aged 50-64 – just one point shy of the Tories.

But there are signs of growing support among younger age groups, including young men aged 18-24, where Reform was the third most popular choice, alongside the Green Party.

For Gen-Z women, it was the least popular option, alongside the Tories. But it was among 16-17-year-olds that the gender gap was the widest.

Surprisingly, Farage’s party was as popular as Labour among young men in that age group, according to a poll by JL Partners in the week of the general election. The contrast with young women in that group is stark – Reform UK lagging far behind Labour and the Green Party.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking during the party's annual conference at the National Exhibition Centre in Birmingham. Picture date: Friday September 20, 2024.
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Picture by: Joe Giddens/PA Wire/PA Images
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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage speaking during the party’s annual conference. Pic: PA

So, in a party where the median age of an MP is 60, how is it hooking in younger voters?

The popularity of Gen-Z skewing social platforms like TikTok is part of the answer. Reform was quick to engage with a younger audience there – racking up 308,100 followers. That is more than any other major political party, just ahead of Labour on 233,100.

Farage’s personal TikTok now has over a million followers, a fact he announced last week during a press conference in which he said the party’s membership had reached 100,000.

He also gave a breakdown of how old his social media followers seem to be. “We get tens of millions of views every single month. Two thirds of that million are under the age of 35. Half of them are under the age of 25. Something remarkable is happening with Gen-Z,” he said.

And it’s not just TikTok. Reform UK had far and away the highest number of social media page interactions across all platforms during the election, according to analysis by Crowdtangle.

Among its young followers are right-wing political influencers, like Nicholas Lissack.

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Nicholas Lissack is a right-wing influencer

A smartly dressed student with strong right-wing views, Nick was surprised when his first TikTok video supporting Reform went viral in the run-up to the 2024 general election. In the video, which was watched almost 4 million times in 24 hours, he urged other first-time voters to follow his example and support Reform UK.

A week later, Nick found himself backstage at a pre-election Reform UK rally, meeting his “political hero” – Mr Farage. In another video, he calls their conversation “beautiful” and says they discussed the “ludicrous” price of pints and golf, alongside politics.

He describes his videos as “short, snappy and energetic… I come across like I’m having a fun time”. They’re snappily titled too – a glance over his TikTok page offers two-minute videos with titles like Labour Hates Us, Is Reform UK Fascist? and Ban Notting Hill Carnival. That energy has also translated across X/Twitter, where he now has tens of thousands of followers.

But he admits, not all his peers share his views.

“I lost quite a few friends over this but in that time, I gained 40,000 Twitter followers.”

Since we spoke, he’s gained a further 10,000.

Nick
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Nick went viral, and then found himself meeting his Reform ‘hero’

So what about women?

Reform UK was proud of the fact it was able to stand a candidate in nearly every seat.

But, according to the campaign group 50:50 parliament, less than a fifth of its candidates were women. Five white men were chosen for seats the party deemed winnable, leading to Nigel Farage, Richard Tice, Rupert Lowe and James McMurdock being elected to parliament.

Controversially, this year, Nigel Farage told Sky News that the self-proclaimed misogynist influencer Andrew Tate was “an important voice for men”.

Tate is currently banned from YouTube for breaching hate speech rules. He is also banned from Facebook and was described by Meta as a “dangerous individual”. He was also accused of rape, people trafficking and organised crime – though he denies these allegations.

For Nick, being frank about his political opinions has helped his videos reach a wide audience. He attributes his success to men feeling “increasingly disenfranchised” in the wake of “fourth-wave feminism”.

“Reform offers an exciting alternative because it doesn’t discriminate… Young men are drawn to it because they see it as an opportunity to dig their teeth into politics,” he said.

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George Finch has started The New Reformer, an online magazine

Another new voice in the right-wing political space is George Finch. He enjoyed similar success to Nick over the summer, making videos in support of Mr Farage’s party. Since then, he’s started The New Reformer, an online magazine which he describes as “By Reformers, for Reformers”. Articles have provocative titles like “Project 2029 – dismantling the woke state” and “Since When Is It Divisive to Be British?”.

He thinks the party doesn’t have a problem attracting voters who are women.

“To say that women are put off by Reform is wrong. If it’s something you think is a problem I’m sure HQ are looking at it”.

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George says he doesn’t think the party has a problem attracting women

Will it work?

“There was something about TikTok that worked for Reform,” says Dr Jilly Kay, a senior lecturer in Communication and Media at Loughborough University. “Nigel Farage’s performance and his way of connecting with people worked effectively. We see that in the increased support among young male voters.”

But she also thinks Reform can tap into something more fundamental and give clarity to voters who feel adrift after a period of unstable politics.

“As a young man you’re told you can’t do this, you can’t do that. Farage is trying to give that sense of permission,” Dr Kay explains. “[Reform UK] has that sense of freedom and power which people like Farage claim is being denied to men and boys.”

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But other experts warn that this surge in youthful support could be being overstated.

“Reform undoubtedly has distinct appeal among some sections of young voters: specifically, young men from poorer backgrounds, and who are unlikely to attend university,” says Dr Stuart Fox, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Exeter.

But according to Dr Fox, Reform UK is far less popular among young voters overall than parties such as the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Labour. He also points out the challenges of engaging the specific youthful demographic most likely to support them.

“Those young people to whom Reform most appeal – young men from poorer backgrounds – are by far the least likely to vote. It will be a real challenge for Reform to capitalise on its appeal to those voters in elections.”

The first signs of whether it can in fact capitalise on this so-called “bro vote” will be at next year’s local elections. It will be a key test for the party and, if it succeeds, its ambitions are high.

Reform UK wants to secure its future and not only challenge the Tories’ status as the leading right-wing group in UK politics but eventually become the governing party in Britain.

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In response Reform UK said: “Reform UK has all the momentum in British politics. This is shown by the surge in support by younger voters.

“We have now surpassed 100,000 members and our polling continues to rise. Young people recognise that the Tories and Labour have failed them and that Britain needs Reform.

“We will harness this momentum as we head into next May and future elections and offer young people real change.”

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Lammy, Cooper and Mahmood get new jobs in major reshuffle after Rayner’s resignation

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Lammy, Cooper and Mahmood get new jobs in major reshuffle after Rayner's resignation

David Lammy has been stripped of his role as foreign secretary, and given the job of justice secretary, along with the role of deputy PM.

Mr Lammy‘s move was one of the most momentous of Sir Keir Starmer‘s ministerial reshuffle on Friday afternoon, which saw a whole host of roles change hands, and two departments partially combined.

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The PM moved him away from one of the great offices of state, despite his apparently burgeoning ‘bromance’ with US vice president JD Vance. But Mr Lammy benefited from Angela Rayner‘s departure.

David Lammy arrives in Downing Street following his appointment as deputy PM. Pic: PA
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David Lammy arrives in Downing Street following his appointment as deputy PM. Pic: PA

The deputy prime minister and housing secretary resigned from government on Friday morning, after it was found she had breached the ministerial code over her tax affairs. Sir Keir regretfully accepted her resignation, leaving her roles vacant.

Thus began the ministerial reshuffle, brought forward by several weeks as a result of Ms Rayner’s departure.

Mr Lammy has been given the role of deputy prime minister, and appeared cheery on Friday afternoon – strolling up Downing Street in the sunshine with a big smile on his face.

More on Angela Rayner

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David Lammy appointed deputy PM

His move from the Foreign Office to the Ministry of Justice then allowed Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, to take on Mr Lammy’s previous job. She has never served in any role involving foreign affairs before, bar a three-month stint as shadow foreign secretary in 2010.

Her pivot to foreign affairs then allowed the biggest promotion of them all, with then justice secretary and key Starmer ally, Shabana Mahmood, being appointed as home secretary.

This means that for the first time in British history, all three great offices of state, after the prime minister, are held by women.

Shabana Mahmood arrives at Downing Street after being appointed home secretary. Pic: PA
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Shabana Mahmood arrives at Downing Street after being appointed home secretary. Pic: PA

With those roles rejigged, and Number 10 insisting from the start that Rachel Reeves was safe as chancellor, it was time to tinker with the rest of the cabinet.

It appears that while the reshuffle was carried out unexpectedly early, a lot of thought had gone into it.

Sir Keir began by creating a new ‘super ministry’, combining the skills remit of the Department for Education with the Department for Work and Pensions.

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Cooper appointed foreign secretary

Pat McFadden, on Friday morning the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster (the highest ranking Cabinet Office minister), has been given responsibility for this new ministerial empire. It also means that Bridget Phillipson, who was and remains the education secretary, has had her responsibilities slimmed down.

Officially, Mr McFadden has become the work and pensions secretary. This meant the current occupant of that role, Liz Kendall, also needed to be reshuffled.

She has now been appointed as the science, innovation and technology secretary. Her predecessor in that role, Peter Kyle, in turn received a promotion to lead the Department of Business and Trade.

Peter Kyle has been promoted to business secretary
Pic: PA
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Peter Kyle has been promoted to business secretary
Pic: PA

Mr Kyle made incorporating and using AI a key part of his first year in office, and had been seen to be doing well in the job. His promotion, though, has led to the current business secretary, Jonathan Reynolds, being left without a department.

While he remains in the cabinet, his appointment to the job of chief whip is unlikely to be viewed as a promotion.

The reshuffle brought better news for Darren Jones, who was only promoted on Monday to the newly created role of chief secretary to the prime minister.

He got to keep his role, but was gifted Mr McFadden’s old job – chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – to add to his growing political portfolio.

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Starmer’s effort to reset govt

Read more:
Cabinet reshuffle: Who’s in and who’s out
What a moment for Shabana Mahmood
Cooper picking up the reins at a challenging time

Steve Reed, another long-time Starmer ally, benefitted alongside Mr Lammy from Ms Rayner’s departure. He has been given her former role of housing secretary, leaving behind the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.

Also ending in a better position than they started off on Friday morning are Emma Reynolds, a Treasury minister who has now received Mr Reed’s old job, and trade minister Douglas Alexander, who has now become the Scotland secretary. Sir Alan Campbell, previously chief whip, has now become leader of the House of Commons.

On the other side of the spectrum, former leader of the Commons Lucy Powell, and ex-Scotland secretary Ian Murray, joined Ms Rayner in leaving the government. Both were sacked, and both made clear their desire not to lose their roles.

Sacked ministers Lucy Powell and Ian Murray.
Pic: PA
Image:
Sacked ministers Lucy Powell and Ian Murray.
Pic: PA

Ms Powell said it had been “an honour” to serve but warned that “the future of our democracy looks uncertain”, citing rising levels of “abuse, misrepresentation…. and the call for easy answers”.

Mr Murray also echoed this sentiment, stating that politics in the UK “is at a dangerous crossroads”. He called on MPs to bring “prosperity, hope and our communities together, rather than furthering division and despair”, and said he would support Sir Keir’s government from the backbenches.

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Cabinet reshuffle: Who’s on Keir Starmer’s new team and who’s out?

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Cabinet reshuffle: Who's on Keir Starmer's new team and who's out?

Sir Keir Starmer has reshuffled his cabinet following Angela Rayner’s resignation after admitting she had not paid enough stamp duty on the purchase of a new home.

The prime minister’s former right-hand woman stepped down as deputy prime minister, housing secretary and deputy leader of the Labour Party after standards adviser Sir Laurie Magnus found she had breached the ministerial code.

Politics latest: Reshuffle after Rayner quits

She paid standard stamp duty on a flat she bought in Hove, East Sussex, in May after taking advice that it counted as her only home due to her disabled son’s trust owning the family home in Ashton-under-Lyne – but it was established she should have paid more.

Her resignation has left a hole around the cabinet table, which Sir Keir is now filling.

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The rise and fall of Angela Rayner

It was stressed early on Chancellor Rachel Reeves would remain as chancellor, in an attempt to stop the markets moving.

Read more: The working class mum who left school at 16 and became deputy PM

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This is who is moving and where to:

David Lammy – foreign secretary to justice secretary and deputy PM

After flexing his diplomatic muscles with Donald Trump and his deputy JD Vance over the past year, Mr Lammy will now move to the justice brief.

The move is likely to be a blow as the PM had promised, most recently in November, he would be foreign secretary for the whole parliament until 2029.

Although he is no longer holding one of the four great offices of state, he has also been made deputy prime minister, presumably to soften the blow.

Mr Lammy is close to Sir Keir, both as a friend and in his next door constituency, and was seen grinning as he went into Number 10 after being appointed.

Yvette Cooper – home secretary to foreign secretary

The Labour stalwart had made tackling illegal migration a priority, so the move could be seen as a disappointment for her.

However, she remains in one of the four great offices of state – PM, chancellor, foreign and home.

Shabana Mahmood – justice secretary to home secretary

A big promotion, the straight-talking Labour MP will be tasked with tackling the small boats crisis and asylum seeker hotel protests.

She is no stranger to making difficult decisions, deciding to free criminals early to reduce prison overcrowding as justice secretary.

Her move makes it the first time all three great offices of state, after the prime minister, are held by women.

Pat McFadden – chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and intergovernmental minister to work and pensions secretary and head of “super ministry”

Often seen as Sir Keir’s “number two”, Mr McFadden will take over a newly formed “super ministry”.

It will include the department for work and pensions and the skills remit of the department for education – taking a large part of Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s brief and taking over from Liz Kendall as work and pensions secretary.

While it is not a promotion at first glance, it is a much wider role than he has had as chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster – the highest-ranking Cabinet Office minister after the PM.

Darren Jones – chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster

It is the second new job in the space of one week for the new chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster. The close ally of the prime minister was promoted from chief secretary to the Treasury on Monday to chief secretary to the prime minister. And now he gets another new job.

Steve Reed – environment secretary to housing secretary

A promotion for the man who has consistently defended the government lifting inheritance tax relief on farmers.

He takes over one of the two major vacancies left by Ms Rayner and will have the massive task of building 1.5 million new homes during this parliament, as promised by the government.

Jonathan Reynolds – business and trade secretary to chief whip

A slightly odd move for the MP seen as a steady pair of hands in his business secretary role.

He takes over from Sir Alan Campbell and will now have to hustle Labour MPs to vote with the government – something that has sometimes proved difficult with the current cohort.

Mr Reynolds will also attend cabinet, as is necessary so he can liaise between the party and No 10.

Peter Kyle – science secretary to business and trade secretary

A promotion for Mr Kyle, who is taking over from Jonathan Reynolds.

He is seen as a rising star and impressed Labour MPs when he refused to stand down after suggesting Nigel Farage was on the side of people like Jimmy Savile by opposing the government’s online safety law.

Mr Kyle will be in charge of getting trade deals with other countries over the line.

Emma Reynolds – economic secretary to the Treasury to environment secretary

Probably the biggest promotion of the reshuffle, Ms Reynolds is taking on Mr Reed’s role after serving as a junior minister in the Treasury.

She will have to take on farmers and deal with the water companies – a big undertaking.

Liz Kendall – work and pensions secretary to science, innovation and technology secretary

Pat McFadden has taken her role as work and pensions secretary, while Ms Kendall takes over Peter Kyle’s brief.

He has made AI a major facet of his role so we will wait to see which direction Ms Kendall takes the job in.

Douglas Alexander – trade policy minister to Scotland secretary

A promotion for the Blair/Brown minister who returned to politics last year after being ousted in 2015 by then 20-year-old SNP MP Mhairi Black.

He takes over from Ian Murray, who has been removed from the cabinet.

Sir Alan Campbell – Chief whip to Lord President of the Council and leader of the House of Commons

An MP since 1997 and part of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown’s frontbench, Sir Alan is taking over Lucy Powell’s role.

He will be in charge of organising government business in the Commons – a sizeable job.

Who is out?

Lucy Powell has been sacked as leader of the House of Commons.

Ian Murray has been sacked as Scotland secretary.

Not out – but

Bridget Phillipson remains as education secretary but her brief has narrowed as Mr McFadden has taken over the skills part of her job.

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From denial to resignation: How Rayner’s position fell apart – and why tax row risks damaging public trust

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From denial to resignation: How Rayner's position fell apart - and why tax row risks damaging public trust

The damage is immense. In retrospect, it seems incredible that Sir Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner thought they could tough it out before establishing the facts.

But they did, and not for the first time.

Politics latest: Starmer starts cabinet reshuffle

So, before we assess this particular case, it highlights a pre-existing nagging doubt. Is speaking without checking a defining pattern of this government?

Tax promises. Welfare cuts. Tulip Siddiq. Waspi Women. The initial winter fuel plan. The vow there would be no winter fuel U-turn. A pledge that David Lammy would be foreign secretary for five years.

Even a cast-iron guarantee in July that there would be no reshuffle this month – now there might be three, if you include junior ministers next week.

Each one: an action taken or promise made, combined with fighting talk – before reality dawns and the government retreats into reverse.

More on Angela Rayner

Is the word of ministers and their advisers in this government worth less than it should be?

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The rise and fall of Angela Rayner

Starmer and Rayner casually tossed untruths

So now this.

For days, two of the most senior politicians in the UK have clutched at factually inaccurate (Rayner) and emotionally charged (Starmer) smears against media reports that are today vindicated, and in doing so, casually tossed untruths into the public domain – even though behind the scenes they were still checking the facts.

The issue hinged on whether Ms Rayner should have paid a lower level of stamp duty on her new Hove flat, because it was her main home, or whether the rate £40,000 higher was due because of her interests in property elsewhere.

Read more:
Angela Rayner resigns after admitting she did not pay enough tax

The working class mum who left school at 16 to deputy PM

Angela Rayner has quit as housing secretary. Pic: PA
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Angela Rayner has quit as housing secretary. Pic: PA

After the Telegraph asked whether she had got it wrong last Friday, her spokesman said on the record she “paid the correct duty” and “any suggestion otherwise is entirely without basis”. Yet later the same day, on Friday night, they decided to check and get a second opinion from a tax barrister.

This led to a change of position from Ms Rayner on Wednesday, and the self-referral to the ministerial standards adviser.

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Angela Rayner: A tax row timeline

Starmer’s defence

But in the interim, on Monday, while the tax barrister was re-checking the facts, Sir Keir was picking a side.

He attacked critics – who were asking if the housing minister had paid the main housing tax at the right rate – for pursuing a class war.

“Angela has had people briefing against her and talking her down over and over again. It’s a mistake, by the way,” he said.

By this point, No 10 also knew that Ms Rayner was trying to lift a court order which she claims prevented her from going public with the truth. There was no attempt to nuance from the top, however.

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Rayner admits she didn’t pay enough tax

Only finally, on Wednesday, on Sky News, did Ms Rayner concede a mistake. The deputy prime minister’s defence was that lawyers had wrongly advised her to pay the lower stamp duty – it was all their fault and she should not be found culpable.

Even this has turned out to be a partial explanation, and that is why she’s gone.

Rayner took a chance

The conclusion by the Downing Street investigator was that she’d ignored clear warnings about her tax bill that she should have followed.

In his adjudication to the PM, Sir Laurie Magnus wrote: “In two instances, [the legal advice] was qualified that it did not constitute expert tax advice and was accompanied by a suggestion, and in one case a recommendation, that specific tax advice be found.”

So she took a chance on not following advice to get a proper tax lawyer, and took a chance a second time by claiming on telly that the advice to her was wrong – and has been caught out only because of media scrutiny.

Angela Rayner with Chancellor Rachel Reeves
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Angela Rayner with Chancellor Rachel Reeves

Ministers take nuanced advice from professionals on a daily basis and have to use their political determination on whether they agree. Something very similar happened here in Ms Rayner’s private life, and she got it wrong.

And at no point did someone in No 10 or her team seek to challenge her explanations before multiple figures mounted a case for her defence in public, of things that proved later to be partial or untrue.

This is the sort of thing that damages public trust: making categorical statements that are untrue because the facts weren’t properly established in advance.

Will lessons be learned across the top of government?

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