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Business reaction to the budget is the “biggest issue” facing the Bank of England, according to its governor – while he also contemplates the impact of Donald Trump’s looming return to the White House.  

Andrew Bailey told an event the future was clouded by domestic and global “uncertainty”, making it difficult to predict the effect on the UK economy, particularly around inflation.

He was speaking at the Financial Times’ Global Boardroom just a fortnight before the Bank is due to make its next interest rate decision.

The prospects for a third cut this year are grim, with financial markets betting there will be no change.

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All the mood music coming from Mr Bailey and his fellow rate-setters over the past few weeks has been cautionary, with the bulk of public commentary talking of the need for a “gradual” approach.

The Bank is worried by a recent surge in inflation that has taken the rate back above its 2% target.

Forecasts suggest it will keep going up in the coming months, towards 3% from 2.3% currently, amid renewed pressure from energy and services costs.

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Inflation expected to rise, Bank of England says in November

Another headwind is the pace of wage growth which, the Bank fears, will stoke inflation by boosting demand in the economy.

Mr Bailey said it was not yet clear what effect the hike to employer National Insurance contributions, announced in the budget and set to take effect in April, would have.

“I think the biggest issue now in the immediate future is the response to the National Insurance change; how companies balance the mixture of prices, wages, the level of employment, what is taken on margin, is an important judgement for us,” he said.

The budget raised employers’ National Insurance contributions by 1.2 percentage points to 15% and also lowered the threshold for when firms start paying to £5,000 from £9,100 per year.

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CBI chief’s approach to budget tax shock

Businesses have responded by claiming it will hit wage settlements, investment and jobs.

They have also warned that the cost increases will be passed on to customers, potentially stoking inflation.

The retail sector alone says it faces an additional £7bn burden in 2025 from the changes while hospitality expects a £3.5bn hit. Both are major employers.

While weaker pay settlements could help the Bank bring down borrowing costs through interest rate cuts, policymakers will be worried about the threat of higher prices in shops, bars and restaurants.

Mr Bailey said the Bank had laid out a “range of options” analysing the potential economic impact, “some of which would imply greater inflation and some of which would imply less inflation”.

“So there is uncertainty there and we need to see how the evidence evolves,” he said.

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The other global pressure he spoke about was the impact of the Trump presidency from late January.

The governor said the Bank was analysing the possible effects of threatened trade policies on the UK.

Mr Trump has warned of tariffs covering all US imports as part of his agenda to protect US industry and jobs.

Mr Bailey said of such a scenario that it clearly “moves trading prices but it also depends on how other countries react to them, and how exchange rates react to them as well”.

He did not disagree, in an FT interview, that further interest rate cuts could be expected next year.

Financial markets are expecting up to four, barring any further shocks.

Mr Bailey described the process of falling inflation as being “well embedded”.

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Hollywood is dying – but insiders fear Trump’s tariff threat may hasten demise

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Hollywood is struggling, but some fear Trump's foreign film tariffs might do more harm than good

At Sony Production studios in Culver City, an area of Los Angeles steeped in the movie business, a steady stream of cars and lorries comes and goes through the security gate.

It occupies the MGM lot which dates back to 1924. Gone With the Wind, The Wizard of Oz and Citizen Kane were shot here and, more recently, Interstellar and The Dark Knight Rises. But this is no longer the beating heart of movie making.

In Tinsel Town the bright lights of the film industry have been fading for some time. Production in Hollywood has fallen by 40% in the last decade, sometimes moving to other states like New Mexico, New York and Georgia, but more often outside the US entirely.

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A recent survey of film and TV executives indicates that Britain, Australia and Canada are now favoured locations over California when it comes to making movies.

San Andreas, a blockbuster film about a California earthquake, was shot in Australia. In America, a film about an Irish family settling in New York, was shot in Canada.

Although about a California disaster, San Andreas was actually shot in Australia. Pic: Jasin Boland/THA/Shutterstock
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Although about a California disaster, San Andreas was actually shot in Australia. Pic: Jasin Boland/THA/Shutterstock

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The exodus of the film industry from Hollywood is mostly owing to economic reasons, with other countries boasting lower labour costs and more expansive tax incentives. But as productions have moved overseas, studios across Los Angeles are frequently empty and those who work behind the scenes are often out of work.

President Trump has approached this problem with a familiar reaction – sweeping tariffs, a 100% tariff on all foreign made films coming into the USA.

‘It’s a different kind of situation than producing cars overseas’

Justine Bateman is a filmmaker and sister of actor Jason Bateman. She is glad Trump is looking for solutions but does not understand how the tariffs will work. “I will say, I’m very glad to hear that President Trump is interested in helping the film business. But part of the problem is we just don’t have very much detail, do we?” she says.

“He’s made this big announcement, but we don’t have the detail to really mull over. He doesn’t even say whether it’s going to be films that are shown in the cinema or streaming movies, for example.

“Tariffs can be a profitable situation for when we’re just talking about hard goods, but something like a film and, particularly if you’ve got an American film that takes place in the south of France, you want to be in a particular location.

“So it’s a different kind of situation than producing cars overseas and bringing them back here.”

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At the Hand Prop Room in Los Angeles, they supply props for TV and film. The warehouse is brimful of virtually any prop you could imagine, from portraits of former presidents, to replica handguns to African artefacts and 18th century teapots. The walls are decorated with posters from some of the productions they’ve supplied, including Babylon, Oppenheimer and Ghostbusters.

Reynaldo Castillo believes the tariffs could be harmful to Hollywood unless properly thought through
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Reynaldo Castillo believes the tariffs could be harmful to Hollywood unless properly thought through

‘It needs to be thought through’

In the past five years, the prop shop has been impacted by the COVID pandemic, by both the writers’ and actors’ strikes and the globalisation of the film industry. Business is at an all time low.

“It’s not helping when so many productions are not just leaving the state, but also leaving the country,” says Reynaldo Castillo, the general manager of the Hand Prop Room. “It’s Hollywood, we have the infrastructure that nobody else has and I think maybe to a certain point we took it for granted.

“I think we can all agree that we want more filming to stay in the country to help promote jobs. But you also don’t want to do something to hurt it.

“How does it work? Are there exceptions for X, Y, and Z? What about independent movies that have small budgets that are shot somewhere else that would destroy their ability to make something? It needs to be thought through and make sure it’s implemented the right way.”

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Deliveroo to be sold to DoorDash for £2.9bn

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Deliveroo to be sold to DoorDash for £2.9bn

Deliveroo has agreed terms for a £2.9bn takeover by US-based delivery platform DoorDash.

It emerged just over a week ago that a deal was on the table.

DoorDash said on Tuesday that its 180p-per-share offer was final though it reserved the right to raise it should a rival bidder emerge.

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The offer represented a 44% premium to the value of Deliveroo’s shares on 4 April – the day before it approached the company with its takeover proposals.

The offer, which was unanimously agreed by an independent board, is being recommended to shareholders.

Deliveroo co-founder and chief executive, Will Shu, stands to make more than £170m from his holding if the sale progresses as expected later this year.

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04 October 2018, Berlin: Will Shu, Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Deliveroo, stands on a roof terrace at Potsdamer Platz. The British online delivery service Deliveroo supplies its customers with dishes from various partner restaurants. Founded in 2013, Deliveroo now also operates in the Netherlands, France, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Australia, Singapore, Dubai and Hong Kong. Photo by: Jens B'ttner/picture-alliance/dpa/AP Images
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Will Shu is supportive of the takeover

The deal is aimed at expanding the DoorDash brand into Europe for the first time, scrapping for market share with rivals including Just Eat and Uber Eats.

Deliveroo operates in nine countries and handled orders worth £2bn last year.

The combined firm will have a presence across 40 countries, with annual orders worth around £10bn.

It was not immediately clear whether the Deliveroo brand name would survive.

Tony Xu, CEO and co-founder of DoorDash, said “The enlarged group will bring together DoorDash’s strong operating playbook with Deliveroo’s local expertise to invest in innovation and execution at an even higher level.

“Together, we will work to deliver the best experience for all of our stakeholders, to grow the GDP of cities around the world, and to build the leading global platform for local commerce.”

Mr Shu added: “I’m very proud of everything we have achieved as a standalone business.

“We are now at the beginning of a transformative new chapter.

“DoorDash and Deliveroo are like-minded organisations with a shared strategic vision and aligned values. Together, we will be even better positioned to serve consumers, merchants, riders and local communities. The Enlarged Group will have the scale to invest in product, technology and the overall consumer value proposition.

“I want to thank all of our incredibly skilled people, dedicated riders and merchants and our loyal consumers for helping us to build the successful business we have today. I hope they share our excitement about what the future holds. I know that DoorDash will be a great long-term partner for our business.”

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Market analysts have long seen Deliveroo as a target due to the company’s share price struggles since its flotation in 2021 – a time when a COVID-led surge in demand for deliveries had tailed off.

Deliveroo’s shares had weakened nearly 50% since their market debut ahead of the offer.

Shareholders will have to vote on the deal but it is not expected to face regulatory hurdles as it provides DoorDash access to 10 new markets where it currently has no presence.

The takeover will represent a blow to the City of London, given the loss of a tech-focused player.

Deliveroo shares were trading up 2%, at 175p, in early Tuesday trading.

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Nationwide kicks off search for successor to chairman

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Nationwide kicks off search for successor to chairman

Nationwide, Britain’s biggest building society, is kicking off a search for its next chairman, months after it completed the biggest takeover deal in its 142-year history.

Sky News has learnt that Nationwide is working with headhunters to identify a successor to Kevin Parry, who has chaired the mutual since 2022.

Mr Parry has been on the building society’s board since 2016, meaning he is ‘timed out’ under the corporate governance guidelines applied to listed companies.

Although owned by its 16m members rather than listed on the public markets, Nationwide adheres to comparable governance principles.

One of Britain’s biggest high street financial services groups, it employs more than 18,000 people and has more than 600 branches across the UK.

In September, it completed the £2.3bn acquisition of Virgin Money, the London-listed banking group.

Last year, it sparked fury among its high street banking rivals by running a provocative television advertising campaign which mocked them for their approach to serving customers.

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One of the ads was banned for wrongly implying that – unlike its peers – Nationwide was not closing any of its branches.

Mr Parry, who is also a former chair of the mutual Royal London, is not expected to leave imminently, although it is possible that a succession plan could be confirmed at or before Nationwide’s next annual meeting in July.

It was unclear whether any of the mutual’s existing non-executive directors might be in the frame to succeed him.

Nationwide declined to comment on Monday.

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