Scotland has vowed to scrap the two-child benefit cap, saying it will lift 15,000 Scottish children out of poverty.
Scotland’s finance secretary Shona Robison also committed to a record investment in the NHS as she unveiled the nation’s draft budget for the coming year in a speech at Holyrood.
The MSP previously said the budget would put “the people of Scotland first”.
Ms Robison told the chamber on Wednesday: “This budget invests in public services, lifts children out of poverty, acts in the face of the climate emergency, and supports jobs and economic growth.
“It is a budget filled with hope for Scotland’s future.”
Highlights from the draft budget:
• The Scottish government will mitigate the impact of the UK government’s two-child benefit cap. Ms Robison has urged Westminster to provide the necessary data to allow for the change to be made. She said: “Let me be crystal clear, this government is to end the two-child cap and in doing so will lift over 15,000 Scottish children out of poverty.”
• The nation’s NHS will receive a record £21bn for health and social care – an increase of £2bn for frontline NHS boards. The investment comes as spending watchdog Audit Scotland warned the NHS is unsustainable in its present state, with a fundamental change “urgently needed”.
• Almost £200m will be invested to reduce NHS waiting times. Ms Robison said by March 2026, no one will wait longer than 12 months for a new outpatient appointment, inpatient treatment or day-case treatment.
• The SNP has ditched its flagship council tax freeze. Local authority funding will be increased by more than £1bn, taking the total amount to more than £15bn. Ms Robison said while it is up to the local authorities to make their own decisions with the funding, there is “no reason for big increases in council tax next year”.
• More than £300m of ScotWind revenues will be invested in jobs and in measures to meet the climate challenge.
• £768m will be invested into affordable homes, enabling more than 8,000 new properties for social rent, mid-market rent and low-cost home ownership to be built or acquired this coming year.
• The Scottish government will also work with the City of Edinburgh Council to “unlock” more than 800 new net zero homes at the local authority’s Granton development site.
• New funding of £4m will be invested to tackle homelessness and for prevention pilots.
• An additional £800m will be invested into social security benefits.
• More than £2.5m will be delivered to support actions within the Disability Equality Action Plan.
• Spending on education and skills will increase by 3% over and above inflation, an uplift of £158m.
• £120m will be provided to headteachers to support initiatives designed to address the poverty-related attainment gap.
• Free school meals will also be expanded to primary 6 and 7 children from low-income families.
• A new initiative titled “bright start breakfasts” will be funded to help deliver more breakfast clubs in primary schools across the country.
• £29m will be invested into an additional support needs (ASN) plan, which will help maintain teacher numbers at 2023 levels and additionally train new ASN teachers.
• Almost £4.2bn will be invested across the justice system. The funding will seek to maintain police numbers. An additional £3m will be made available to help mitigate retail crime amid shoplifting concerns.
• £4.9bn will be invested to tackle the climate and nature crises.
• £25m will be allocated to support the creation of new jobs in the green energy supply chain in Scotland. And to help people at home and work, £300m will be invested in upgrading heating and insulation.
• £90m will be invested to protect, maintain and increase the nation’s woodlands and peatlands.
• £190m will be made available to boost bus services and to make it easier for people to walk, wheel or cycle. The electric vehicle charging network is also to be expanded.
• Almost £1.1bn will be used to maintain and renew the nation’s rail infrastructure.
• £237m will be invested to maintain and improve the nation’s ports, as well as deliver a “more resilient and effective ferry fleet”.
• In rural communities, more than £660m will be used to support farmers, crofters and the wider economy.
• The culture budget will increase by £34m.
• Income tax rates in Scotland have been frozen until 2026.
• The SNP had already confirmed it intends to restore a universal winter fuel payment for pensioners next year. Those in receipt of pension credit or other benefits will receive a £200 or £300 payment, depending on their age. All other pensioners will receive a reduced payment of £100.
Image: First Minister John Swinney and Ms Robison at Holyrood on Wednesday. Pic: PA
The Scottish budget is largely funded through the block grant alongside taxes raised north of the border.
Holyrood has an additional £3.4bn to spend in 2025-26, thanks to cash announced by UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves in her budget in October – taking the overall settlement to £47.7bn.
However, the Scottish budget for 2023-24 amounted to around £59.7bn.
Holyrood ministers are legally obliged to balance the books and have limited borrowing powers with which to raise additional funds.
The draft budget will be scrutinised in the Scottish parliament over the coming weeks before an expected vote in February, where the SNP will need to garner support from outside its minority administration for it to pass.
Image: Ms Robison during a visit to Logan Energy in Edinburgh earlier on Wednesday. Pic: PA
Following her statement, Ms Robison said she was looking forward to working with the opposition parties.
She added: “I am proud to present a budget that delivers on the priorities of the people of Scotland.
“Parliament can show that we understand the pressures people are facing.
“We can choose to come together to bring hope to people, to renew our public services, and deliver a wealth of new opportunities in our economy.”
In response, the Scottish Greens said it will not back the proposed budget “as things stand”.
Ross Greer, the party’s finance spokesperson, cited its failure to expand free school meals for all P6 and P7 pupils.
The MSP said: “The government has agreed to more modest Green proposals like free ferry travel for young islanders, free bus travel for asylum seekers and higher tax on the purchase of holiday homes, but these measures are not nearly enough to make up for the cuts elsewhere.
“Big changes will be needed if they expect the Scottish Greens’ support.”
IPPR Scotland welcomed the intention to scrap the two-child benefit cap, as did Oxfam Scotland.
However, the charity criticised the Scottish government’s failure to implement a tax on “pollution spewing private jets” and is calling on ministers to “turbocharge talks with the UK government in order to give the tax clearance for take-off as soon as possible”.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Conservatives branded it “more of the same from the SNP”.
Craig Hoy, the party’s shadow cabinet secretary for finance, said: “Taxpayers are paying the price for years of SNP waste on ferries, gender reforms, failed independence bids, and a National Care Service that has already cost £30m.”
The MSP said the NHS is on its knees and needed “urgent reform”.
He added: “The extra funding is welcome but our NHS needs more than money, it needs leadership and a serious plan to reduce waiting lists, yet the SNP’s only proposal is rehashing a previous broken promise.
“The Nationalists have no vision for the future of the country and it’s clear John Swinney is out of ideas.”
The Scottish Tories also said the two-child benefit cap is “necessary”.
MSP Liz Smith, the party’s shadow social security secretary, said: “Social security payments must be fair to people who are struggling and to taxpayers who pick up the bill.
“We believe the two-child cap is necessary and the right approach at this time.
“The rapidly rising benefits bill is currently unsustainable as a direct consequence of the SNP’s high tax rates and mismanagement of our economy and public finances.”
The ripping up of the trade rule book caused by President Trump’s tariffs will slow economic growth in some countries, but not cause a global recession, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
There will be “notable” markdowns to growth forecasts, according to the financial organisation’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva in her curtain raiser speech at the IMF’s spring meeting in Washington.
Some nations will also see higher inflation as a result of the taxes Mr Trump has placed on imports to the US. At the same time, the European Central Bank said it anticipated less inflation from tariffs.
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Trump’s tariffs: What you need to know
Earlier this month, a flat rate of 10% was placed on all imports, while additional levies from certain countries were paused for 90 days. Car parts, steel and aluminium are, however, still subject to a 25% tax when they arrive in the US.
This has meant the “reboot of the global trading system”, Ms Georgieva said. “Trade policy uncertainty is literally off the charts.”
The confusion over why nations were slapped with their specific tariffs, the stop-start nature of the taxes, and the rapid escalation of the tit-for-tat levies between the US and China sparked uncertainty and financial market turbulence.
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“The longer uncertainty persists, the larger the cost,” Ms Georgieva cautioned.
“Unusual” activity in currency and government debt markets – as investors sold off dollars and US government debt – “should be taken as a warning”, she added.
“Everyone suffers if financial conditions worsen.”
These challenges are being borne out from a “weaker starting position” as public debt levels are much higher in recent years due to spending during the COVID-19 pandemic and higher interest rates, which increased the cost of borrowing.
The trade tensions are “to a large extent” a result of “an erosion of trust”, Ms Georgieva said.
This erosion, coupled with jobs moving overseas, and concerns over national security and domestic production, has left us in a world where “industry gets more attention than the service sector” and “where national interests tower over global concerns,” she added.
But the high profits are not expected to increase, according to Sainsbury’s, which warned of heightened competition as a supermarket price war heats up.
Sainsbury’s said it had spent £1bn lowering prices, leading to a “record-breaking year in grocery”, its highest market share gain in more than a decade, as more people chose Sainsbury’s for their main shop.
It’s the second most popular supermarket with market share of ahead of Asda but below Tesco, according to latest industry figures from market research company Kantar.
In the same year, the supermarket announced plans to cut more than 3,000 jobs and the closure of its remaining 61 in-store cafes as well as hot food, patisserie, and pizza counters, to save money in a “challenging cost environment”.
This financial year, profits are forecast to be around £1bn again, in line with the £1.036bn in retail underlying operating profit announced today for the year ended in March.
The grocer has been a vocal critic of the government’s increase in employer national insurance contributions and said in January it would incur an additional £140m as a result of the hike.
Higher national insurance bills are not captured by the annual results published on Thursday, as they only took effect in April, outside of the 2024 to 2025 financial year.
Supermarkets gearing up for a price war and not bulking profits further could be good news for prices of shelves, according to online investment planner AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould.
“The main winners in a price war would ultimately be shoppers”, he said.
“Like Tesco, Sainsbury’s wants to equip itself to protect its competitive position, hence its guidance for flat profit in the coming year as it looks to offer customers value for money.”
There has been, however, a warning from Sainsbury’s that higher national insurance contributions will bring costs up for consumers.
News shops are planned in “key target locations”, Sainsbury’s results said, which, along with further openings, “provides a unique opportunity to drive further market share gains”.
US stock markets suffered more significant losses on Wednesday, with stocks in leading AI chipmakers slumping after firms said new restrictions on exports to China would cost them billions.
Nvidia fell 6.87% – and was at one point down 10% – after revealing it would now need a US government licence to sell its H20 chip.
Rival chipmaker AMD slumped 7.35% after it predicted a $800m (£604m) charge due to its MI308 also needing a licence.
Dutch firm ASML, which makes hardware essential to chip manufacturing, fell more than 5% after it missed order expectations and said US tariffs created uncertainty.
The losses filtered into the tech-dominated Nasdaq index, which recovered slightly to end 3% down, while the larger S&P 500 fell 2.2%.
Image: Pic: AP
Such losses would have been among the worst in years were it not for the turmoil over recent weeks.
It comes as China remains the focus of Donald Trump’s tariff regime, with both countries imposing tit-for-tat charges of over 100% on imports.
The US commerce department said in a statement it was “committed to acting on the president’s directive to safeguard our national and economic security”.
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Could Trump make a trade deal with UK?
Nvidia’s bespoke China chip is already deliberately less powerful than products sold elsewhere after intervention from the previous Biden administration.
However, the Trump government is worried the H20 and others could still be used to build a supercomputer in China, threatening national security and US dominance in AI.
Nvidia said the move would cost it around $5.5bn (£4.1bn) and the licensing requirement would be in place for the “indefinite future”.
Nvidia’s recently announced a $500bn (£378bn) investment to build infrastructure in America – something Mr Trump heralded as a victory in his mission to boost US manufacturing.
However, it appears to have been too little to stave off the new restrictions.
Pressure has also come from the Democrats, with senator Elizabeth Warren writing to the commerce secretary and urging him to limit chip sales to China.
Meanwhile, the head of US central bank also warned on Wednesday that US tariffs could slow the economy and raise inflation more than expected.
Jerome Powell said the bank would need more time to decide on lowering interest rates.
“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,” he said.
“The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”
Predictions of a recession in the US have risen significantly since the president revealed details of the import taxes a few weeks ago.
However, he subsequently paused the higher rates for 90 days to allow for negotiations.