CFP Anger Index: Why Ole Miss and Miami should both be furious over Bama’s ranking
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David Hale, ESPN Staff Writer
At least in theory, 92% of the committee’s job should already be done.
It appears to be a given that Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Notre Dame and (probably) SMU and Indiana are in.
The winners of the Big 12 and Mountain West championship games are also in.
So, unless Clemson wins the ACC and closes out the field, that leaves one spot remaining with a host of teams offering compelling cases for inclusion.
But let’s start with something that should be obvious: The 12th team to make the field will be flawed. This isn’t a new phenomenon based on weak schedules or shocking losses. The No. 12 team in the ranking every year has its share of warts. That’s why it’s No. 12. We’re just used to arguing over a top four, not No. 12, so wrapping our heads around a playoff team with a loss to — oh, let’s say Vanderbilt — seems entirely wrong. When it comes to picking 12 teams, there will always be reasons to argue someone doesn’t belong or has done something so inexcusably awful they should be excluded without further debate.
But, of course, if that were true, Notre Dame would already be packing its bags for the Music City Bowl.
Instead, we should be viewing the process of picking the No. 12 team through an optimist’s lens. What have these teams done to earn their way in? Why should we believe they’re capable of — well, maybe not winning it all, but at least putting on a good show in the opening round? What’s the sales pitch for inclusion?
And when we view the decision through that lens, there are at least three reasonable, logical paths to follow.
But this is about a meeting of the College Football Playoff selection committee, where hotel security at the Gaylord Texan Hotel has explicit orders to keep reason and logic from stepping foot on the premises, and so, of course, the one team that isn’t left standing at the end of those logical pathways is exactly the team it has tabbed as the leader in the clubhouse: Alabama.
And that, friends, means a lot of programs have ample reason to be angry.
So, let’s walk down those logical pathways as a means of underscoring just how ridiculous the committee’s take on these rankings looks, bringing us to this week’s Anger Index.
There’s an Occam’s razor aspect to this conundrum that the committee should’ve considered: The simplest, most elegant solution is usually the right one.
This was the committee’s solution back in the first year of the playoff. In 2014, the committee was left to decide between 11-1 TCU and 11-1 Baylor. In the regular season, Baylor had beaten TCU head-to-head by 3 points, but the Bears also had a rather ugly 41-27 loss to West Virginia. The Big 12, at that time, didn’t have a conference championship game, leaving it to the committee to parse out who was more deserving of the No. 4 spot in the playoff.
The committee’s answer? Ohio State!
Baylor won its regular-season finale over No. 9 Kansas State by 11. TCU won its finale against Iowa State by 55-3. And yet the committee moved up 11-1 Ohio State to No. 4, bypassing both Big 12 schools. It was beautiful in its simplicity. Why make an impossible choice between Door No. 1 and Door No. 2 when Door No. 3 is already wide-open?
This isn’t necessarily Miami’s best case for the final playoff slot, of course, but the fact that the Hurricanes are 10-2 and those SEC schools vying for the space are all 9-3 is the perfect opportunity for the committee to simply say, “This team has more wins,” the same way it said “Ohio State has a conference championship” as a completely reasonable justification for avoiding a tough call.
And it’s not as if Miami would be a bad choice. The Canes demolished Florida, a team that beat Ole Miss. The Canes demolished USF, a team that took Alabama into the fourth quarter in Tuscaloosa. The Canes have two road losses by a combined nine points against two pretty good teams — No. 22 Syracuse and a 7-5 Georgia Tech team that just took Georgia to eight overtimes (and probably should’ve won if the officials had been watching the game). QB Cam Ward is extraordinary, the offense is fun, the Canes can play with pretty much anyone, and none of their losses are bad. Isn’t that effectively South Carolina’s pitch?
So, yeah, giving the 12th playoff spot to Miami would’ve been an easy win for the committee. Instead, it chose pain.
Indeed, it docked Miami more spots for a road loss to the No. 22 team in the country than it did for Ohio State losing to 7-5 Michigan.
If the committee didn’t want to prioritize the simplest solution by going with the team with the best record, then certainly you’d think the argument came down to this: Not all wins are equal, and therefore we should choose the team that had proved the most on the field.
Well, folks, the answer to that question is absolutely Ole Miss.
Ole Miss and Alabama both beat South Carolina head-to-head, but the Rebels dominated their game, while the Tide snuck by with a two-point win.
Ole Miss and Alabama have the same best win, against No. 5 Georgia. But Alabama came within minutes of one of the most epic collapses in college football history, narrowly escaping with a seven-point win. Ole Miss, on the other hand, beat Georgia by 18 in a game that was never particularly close. In fact, do you know the last team to beat Georgia by more points than Ole Miss did this year? That would be the 2019 LSU Tigers, arguably the best college football team ever assembled.
Ole Miss is ranked higher in SP+, too. The Rebels are an analytics dream team, with one of the top offenses and defenses in the country statistically. SP+ has the Rebels at No. 3 — ahead of Texas! — while Alabama checks in at No. 5, Miami at No. 10 and South Carolina at No. 13.
OK, but what about strength of schedule? Doesn’t that favor Alabama? It does, but that metric isn’t exactly what it seems. According to ESPN, the Tide played the 17th-toughest schedule in the country, while Ole Miss played the 31st. That seems like a big difference, right? But when we look at the hard numbers rather than the ranking, the difference is only about 1% (Bama at 98.97 and Ole Miss at 97.66). That’s basically the difference between Alabama playing Western Kentucky and Ole Miss playing MTSU. Oh, and if strength of schedule really matters that much, South Carolina ranks ahead of both of them.
And let’s talk about that schedule, because it wasn’t the “strength” that proved to be Alabama’s undoing. The Tide lost to a pair of 6-6 teams. It was the mediocrity on their slate that killed them.
OK, yes, Ole Miss lost to a couple of pretty average teams, too — 7-5 Florida and 4-8 Kentucky. But again, if the records were all that mattered to the committee, Miami would be in the playoff. So let’s compare SP+ rankings for those losses.
Alabama lost to SP+ Nos. 8, 31 and 58 for an average of 32.3.
Ole Miss lost to SP+ Nos. 17, 22 and 48 for an average of 29.0.
So, on average, the Rebels’ losses weren’t as bad as Alabama’s. Their wins were markedly better than Alabama’s. Their underlying stats are better than Alabama’s. Their schedule strength was effectively equal to Alabama’s.
So explain to us again why Ole Miss isn’t in the No. 11 slot, because we’re at a complete loss to understand it.
To be sure, there is not a logical argument in South Carolina’s favor. The Gamecocks have the same record as Alabama and Ole Miss and lost to both of them head-to-head. That, on its face, should eliminate South Carolina.
But, perhaps there’s a more emotional take here; an “eye test,” if you will.
Watch South Carolina over the past six games — all wins, including against Texas A&M, Missouri and Clemson (not to mention a dominant performance against an Oklahoma team that whipped Alabama) — and it’s pretty easy to suggest the Gamecocks are playing as well as any team in the country.
Now, back in the four-team playoff era, this wouldn’t have mattered at all. Go back and look at 2015 Stanford with Christian McCaffrey, which lost its opener to Northwestern before going on a roll and winning 11 of its next 12, or 2016 USC that started 1-3 and reeled off eight straight wins with a new QB. Those teams could’ve genuinely won it all if they had been given a ticket to the dance, but in those days, there was no room for the hottest team. Just the most deserving.
But no one truly deserving is left out if we include South Carolina now. Miami and Alabama and Ole Miss (and others) all have their arguments in favor of inclusion, but as we noted at the top, all have enough warts to miss out, too.
So why not take the team playing the best? How many times in the NFL playoffs have we seen a team that finished strong go on a run and win the Super Bowl? Are they any less a champion, because they lost a couple games in September?
South Carolina’s inclusion would be a boon for all the teams that grow as the season progresses, get better through coaching, hard work and perseverance, that overcome adversity and rise to meet the moment. In short, South Carolina is a feel-good story in a sport that should embrace that type of team.
Instead, the committee is embracing Darth Vader because the Empire holds a lot of sway over the galaxy.
Here’s a fun blind comparison.
Team A: 10-2, No. 12 strength of record, losses to SP+ Nos. 39 and 51 with best win against SP+ No. 12
Team B: 10-2, No. 14 strength of record, losses to SP+ Nos. 50 and 59 with best win against SP+ No. 18
Neither of these teams will play in their conference championship games.
If you had to pick one for the playoff, which would you take?
Well, the records are the same, but Team A seems to have the edge everywhere else, right?
OK, Team A is BYU.
Team B? That’s Miami.
We’re not arguing against Miami, but Miami checks in as the first team out. BYU checks in behind three-loss Clemson!
Perhaps the Cougars’ losses (to Arizona State and Kansas) are reason enough for exclusion (though by that logic, we should be waving goodbye to Alabama and Ole Miss, too), but the fact that BYU isn’t even in the conversation is ridiculous.
1:10
Booger: Committee on ‘slippery slope’ choosing Alabama over Miami
Booger McFarland and Joey Galloway discuss whether the CFP selection committee is making the right decision favoring Alabama over Miami.
We’ve laid out perfectly reasonable arguments for Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina and BYU.
What’s the argument for Alabama?
Strength of schedule? South Carolina’s is better.
A big win vs. Georgia? Ole Miss beat the Dawgs by more.
Strength of record? That’s just a function of strength of schedule, and frankly any record that includes losses to Oklahoma and Vanderbilt — including one blowout — isn’t very “strong.”
Teams that did not lose by more than a TD this year:
Oregon, 12-0
Notre Dame, 11-1
Penn St, 11-1
Boise St, 11-1
SMU, 11-1
Miami, 10-2
BYU, 10-2
ULL, 10-2
Ohio St, 10-2
UNLV, 10-2
Ole Miss, 9-3
Louisville, 8-4
(Side note: Southern Miss went 0-11 vs FBS with all 11 losses by more…— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) December 3, 2024
Better stats? Ole Miss is rated higher in SP+, Miami’s offense is far more compelling, and South Carolina’s defense is, too.
So what exactly is the case for Alabama?
Committee chair Warde Manuel’s best attempt at an explanation: Alabama is 3-1 vs. the current top 25. That, of course, ignores that Miami has wins vs. the Nos. 1 and 3 teams in the AP’s others receiving votes list, and ranking 25 teams is an entirely arbitrary cutoff. And more importantly, it ignores that Alabama is also 6-2 vs. teams not in the current top 25.
No, the real case for Alabama is the same one the committee made last year, that it believes — in spite of any hard evidence — that Alabama is just better. It believes Alabama would win a future hypothetical matchup. It is prioritizing a gut feeling.
We can criticize the committee for a lot of things, but most of it is hair-splitting, and the folks on the committee have a particularly tough job. We’re sympathetic. But when this group continually — year after year (yes, we’re talking to you, Florida State) — ignores what happens in the actual games on the actual field of play in favor of its own projections, that threatens to undermine the entire sport, and that’s a shame.
Is Alabama a good football team? Sure. If the Tide get in, could they win a game or two or the whole darn thing? Absolutely. But if that’s the criteria, then there was no need for Alabama’s players to suit up 12 times this year and go to battle, and that’s an insult to them — even if it means handing them a gift in the process.
We’ve argued a bunch over the No. 12 team, but there’s another debate rolling in the college football world, and that involves conference championships.
The debate has largely centered on SMU and whether the Mustangs, if they lose the ACC title to Clemson, should be reevaluated if they’re 11-2 (particularly if Clemson is stealing a playoff bid).
It’s a reasonable discussion. On one hand, there is precedent. Just two years ago, USC entered conference championship week ranked No. 4, only to lose in a blowout to Utah. The committee dropped the Trojans to No. 10 and rewarded Ohio State — a team that was sitting at home and watching championship weekend — with a playoff berth. At the time, virtually no one even mentioned this. It made logical sense.
But in the 12-team era, when there should ostensibly be a larger margin for error, it seems entirely wrong to suggest a team that won the right to play an extra game should then have that extra data point held against it to the point that it falls out of the playoff field. (And, oh, how ironic would it be if Lane Kiffin complained about this very possibility, suggesting it was better to miss the SEC title game, only to have Kiffin’s team get in as a result of missing the SEC championship and SMU losing the ACC championship.)
But the big point being missed here is that the discussion shouldn’t stop with SMU. What about Boise State?
The Broncos are currently one of the four teams set to get first-round byes because of an 11-1 record, a head-to-head win over UNLV and a largely dominant season. But if they lose a rematch to UNLV — a team it has already beaten once — then the Broncos will be out of the playoff entirely.
Is that fair?
Well, here’s another comparison.
Team A: 11-1, No. 13 strength of record, loss to a top-10 team by 3, four wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and one win vs. a currently ranked foe.
Team B: 11-1, No. 8 strength of record, loss to a top-10 team by 23, three wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents and no wins vs. currently ranked foes.
It should be noted here that the schedule strength difference between the two is about an 8% margin — notable, but not significant.
Who would you say was more deserving of a playoff bid?
Team A, as you might’ve guessed, is Boise State.
Team B is ranked one spot ahead of the Broncos. It’s Indiana, a team that won’t play another game and is considered safely in.
So, why exactly is Boise State not also safely in right now?
It’s a question the committee should be asking.
Also angry this week: Duke Blue Devils (9-3, unranked), Missouri Tigers (9-3, No. 19), Illinois Fighting Illini (9-3, No. 21), Georgia Bulldogs (who were docked far worse for losses against Ole Miss and Alabama than Ohio State was for losing to 7-5 Michigan), Tennessee Volunteers (10-2, No. 7 and should have the first-round home game being handed to Ohio State) and Ryan Day, because life is really unfair sometimes.
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Kristen Shilton
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — Tomas Nosek was experiencing every hockey player’s worst nightmare.
It was overtime in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, and the veteran fourth-line forward for the Florida Panthers was sitting in the box for a delay of game penalty after flipping a puck over the glass with 1:42 remaining in extra time. He could only watch helplessly from there as Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl scored the game winner on the ensuing power play.
That was a devastating moment for Nosek. The response from coach Paul Maurice was to ensure that the crushing feeling wouldn’t linger.
“You just remind him after the game of being down 2-0 to Toronto [in the second round] when that [fourth] line came in and changed everything for us,” Maurice said in his postgame media availability. “And how we are not here [in the Final] without Tomas. It’s a tough break. So, we’ll just make sure he doesn’t eat alone tonight. He’s got lots of people sitting at his table and reminding him how good he’s been to us.”
Nosek didn’t see that kind of empathy coming. The 32-year-old has skated for five NHL clubs in his career and called the interaction with Maurice following his gaffe special compared to other dressing rooms.
“He’s a tremendous person. He said some things that he didn’t need to say, but he said it,” Nosek said. “And that’s what makes him, for me, a really, really good coach and a really good person as well.”
Like Nosek, Maurice has journeyed around the league. It’s at his sixth stop — behind the Panthers’ bench — where he has created his finest work. It’s not just that he has guided Florida to a third consecutive Cup Final, where the Panthers are vying for a second straight title after claiming the organization’s first one 12 months ago. Maurice has been at the center of his team’s cultural movement.
Before Maurice arrived in 2022, the Panthers were a good team on the cusp of greatness. Three years later, Florida is verging on dynastic territory.
That’s not all Maurice’s doing, of course. But whether he takes credit or not, Maurice has been a linchpin in making the Panthers shine, both as a group and individuals.
“Every single guy respects him so much,” forward Sam Bennett said. “When he speaks, everyone’s listening, and I think the team’s really just bought into the culture that he’s implemented into this team. We’re all willing to do whatever it takes and play that hard style that he keeps preaching to us, night in and night out, and we’ve all just bought into that over the years.”
IT WAS JUST PRIOR to Christmas in 2021 when Maurice believed his time was up.
He had been the Winnipeg Jets‘ head coach for nine seasons and could see, with the team limping through a 4-7-2 stretch, that they needed someone else to start calling the shots.
“If you’ll allow me some arrogance, I feel I’m better positioned than anyone to know that they need a new voice,” Maurice said while announcing his resignation. “They need somebody that can get them to that next place.”
Ironically, the same would shortly be true of the Panthers. Little did Maurice know at the time he was the right man for that job. Because when Maurice was bowing out in Winnipeg, he cited a loss of passion for the game itself and swore that without recapturing it, “you can’t be as good as you could be or should be, and that’s how I feel.”
While Maurice was contemplating his future, the Panthers were basking in their present. Florida tore up the NHL with a 122-point showing in 2021-22 to earn the franchise’s first Presidents’ Trophy as the league’s top regular-season team. That accolade didn’t serve them well in the postseason though, where Florida flamed out in a second-round sweep by the Tampa Bay Lightning.
It was Florida, then, that needed the new voice. After the season, GM Bill Zito parted with interim head coach Andrew Brunette, who had taken over when Joel Quenneville resigned in October following sexual assault allegations reported by Kyle Beach against the Chicago Blackhawks during Quenneville’s tenure there.
Despite how far Brunette had taken Florida, Zito wanted to woo someone else for the permanent role — and Maurice was willing to give his past love one last chance.
It’s been a match made in heaven, in more ways than one.
Maurice was barely in the fold when Zito rocked the hockey world with a blockbuster trade in July 2022, shipping the Panthers’ top scorer Jonathan Huberdeau and defenseman MacKenzie Weegar to the Calgary Flames for forward Matthew Tkachuk.
That haymaker dwarfed the Maurice news, but both acquisitions were integral to redefining the Panthers’ brand. Tkachuk exemplified the type of physically focused structure Maurice was sermonizing. Almost in one fell swoop, Florida had found harmony between a superstar and coach. Easy enough then to get everyone else on board too, what with Maurice’s knack for knowing how to read his room.
“He’s open, honest and speaks his mind,” forward Evan Rodrigues said. “I don’t think he holds back by any means. [He’s] very smart. Knows kind of what to say and when to say it, and does a great job of motivating us.”
1:27
Matthew Tkachuk: ‘When we’re playing at our best, we’re pretty hard to beat’
Matthew Tkachuk speaks with Emily Kaplan about the Florida Panthers’ pursuit of back-to-back Stanley Cup championships and what it would mean for their legacy.
Talking might be one of Maurice’s greatest strengths — unless it’s about himself. Maurice earned his 1,000th career win when Florida topped Edmonton 6-1 in Game 3 of the Cup Final on Monday, an accomplishment he declined specifically commenting on. But Maurice was touched to hear Bennett’s comments about the Panthers’ esteem for their coach, calling it “a very kind thing” for his top skater to say about how Maurice has handled leading the Panthers.
“If you walk into the room and you just tell the truth,” Maurice said, “whether they want to hear it or not but it’s the truth, and over time you could look back and say what that person told me was the truth, you’ll have respect for that, I think. So I work hard at trying to find the truth every day and then just telling it as simply as I can with the occasional joke slipped in. Most times I’m the only one that thinks it’s funny.”
Carter Verhaeghe can’t suppress a grin when asked about Maurice and the quirks that make him a unique personality in today’s game.
“He’s one of a kind,” Verhaeghe said. “We see his sense of humor with [the media] and he kind of has the same sense of humor with us. He keeps everything light but makes you want to work; and for the right reasons, for each other. At any given time, he knows what the group needs … it keeps us loose and focused at the same time.”
Fortunately for Maurice it’s not his comedic timing that has cemented the Panthers’ status as a destination spot for players — particularly those in search of revitalizing their résumé. While it used to be — and still is — thought that Florida’s lack of state income tax is what drives NHL free agents to their doorstep, the pull of a Panthers’ sweater goes beyond the potential to save some cash. Florida is 141-87-18 under Maurice, a perennial playoff powerhouse and wields some sort of elixir that, when injected into countless newcomers, has resulted in some of their best years ever.
Just ask A.J. Greer.
The veteran signed a two-year deal with Florida this past July 1 and posted a career-high 17 points in the regular season on his way to being a key piece of the Panthers’ impactful fourth line during this postseason run. And the way Maurice has made his unit with Nosek feel important is testament to that skill Maurice has in getting the most from his group.
“Every player that comes into this organization elevates their game and gets to a certain point where you’re like, ‘Wow. Why wasn’t he like this in the other organizations?’ It translates from the head coach,” Greer said. “He’s a lot of different coaches that I’ve had kind of combined into one. He’s kind of just a complete package of being able to motivate us and elevate our games mentally.”
0:36
A.J. Greer helps Panthers regain 2-goal lead
A.J. Greer scores early in the second period to help Florida regain a two-goal advantage over the Hurricanes.
It’s become the standard in Florida that entering the den comes with high expectations for soaring results. No one epitomizes that more than Maurice. There’s a core belief in his system and how he wants to run the team, but personal evolution has taught Maurice to be less rigid in his everyday approach to the game.
“I’ve spent a lot of years in this league grinding and spitting nails every single day,” Maurice said. “It’s too hard to do. You have to be able to find places where you can laugh a little bit and enjoy it. Once you know everyone’s going to work their butt off, it’s easy to do.”
That translates into how Maurice puts the Panthers through their practice paces during the playoffs. Florida didn’t get on the sheet at all after winning Game 3 and held only an optional practice the morning before Game 4. Maurice is open to adjusting the Panthers schedule as they go, and in tune with what players need to be successful, a vital combination that allows Maurice to know when it’s the right time for a skate — and just how long to keep it going.
“In my relationship with these players, [I ask], when was the last time we added a drill or a skate to practice? I haven’t done it in three years,” he said. “All I do is as soon as I think I get them to the threshold, I shut practice down. Then you get to have a good time. If you believe that you’ve worked as hard as you can, then there’s nothing left to do.”
THEY SAY WINNING can change a man. Maurice, apparently, is not one of them. At least not to his team, who are still getting the same ol’ chestnuts from their leader even after hoisting hockey’s holy grail a season ago.
“He [brings] pretty much the same stuff. Nothing really changed,” Anton Lundell said. “I think you guys know, too; he’s got a lot of things to say, so it’s not only one or two things. He always switches it up and rotates his quotes. But it’s fun to be here, and as a group we like him.”
If there has been a shift in Maurice at all it’s been a positive for the Panthers. Florida’s road to the Cup Final this year was rockier than before, oscillating between dominant stretches and spans of adversity that drew questions about their ability to contend for back-to-back championships.
Maurice kept the Panthers even-keeled through those highs and lows until Florida had fully blossomed.
“He’s the same guy, the same coach,” defenseman Gustav Forsling said. “Maybe even better, probably. He’s really good. He’s still very much looking at every game and he’s reading into everything. And he’s giving us the best chance to win every night.”
That might be Maurice’s greatest superpower — an ability to instill confidence. Whether Florida is up or down in a postseason series — as they have been at times this spring — the Panthers don’t panic. They don’t crumble. Stumble, maybe. But the safety net is there. It comes from Maurice and his philosophies that are well-received because they work. Florida can trust that if it follows his lead, good things happen.
And the Panthers could be days away from proving that fact. Again.
“I don’t think he’s changed since winning [the Cup]. He’s the same,” Bennett said. “He can be hard on us. He’s hard on us when he needs to be. And then he’s relaxed with us when he knows that we need [it], so I think he really does have a good feel for what our team needs. We all have the most respect for him.”
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Kiley McDaniel
The prospect talent in Omaha is strong this year. Even though only two SEC teams made it, the Men’s College World Series field is full of traditional powers with first-round talents.
Before regionals, I ranked the programs with the most MLB draft prospects and though the second-, third- and eighth-ranked teams made it to Omaha, the other five MCWS teams didn’t crack the top dozen. Most of them would’ve been in the next tier — with the notable (and fantastic) exception of Murray State.
Below, I rank the top 15 prospects in the tournament (regardless of draft class), who are all strong candidates to be drafted in the first or compensation rounds. Some underclass prospects could belong in that conversation, and they’re all covered below in the team-by-team breakdown. This ranking is based on major league potential and draft stock, not potential College World Series impact, and prospects are 2025 draft-eligible unless noted otherwise.
Here are all the top pro prospects in Omaha this year.
Watch: MCWS, starting Friday on ESPN | Storylines, predictions | Schedule
Top MLB draft prospects in MCWS
1. Roch Cholowsky, SS, UCLA (2026)
2. Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
3. Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
4. Dax Whitney, RHP, Oregon State (2027)
5. Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas
6. Brendan Summerhill, CF, Arizona
7. Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas
8. Derek Curiel, CF, LSU (2026)
9. Casan Evans, RHP, LSU (2027)
10. Cole Gibler, LHP, Arkansas (2027)
11. Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina
12. Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU
13. Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville
14. Charles Davalan, LF, Arkansas
15. Zach Root, LHP, Arkansas
Arizona
Top Prospect: Brendan Summerhill, CF
Summerhill is the clear headliner here, tracking as a mid-first-round pick with above-average tools, but Arizona also has a ton of pro talent depth who should be drafted in later rounds.
The Wildcats outfield features Aaron Walton and Easton Breyfogle (2026), while the infield has some pro talent in shortstop Mason White, third baseman Maddox Mihalakis and catcher Adonys Guzman. The pitching staff also has some depth with right-handers Collin McKinney, Owen Kramkowski (2026) and Smith Bailey (2027), along with a few more in the bullpen.
One or two will sneak into the third round, but most fit just beyond that.
Arkansas
Top Prospect: Wehiwa Aloy, SS
Arkansas is flush with early-round pro talent, finishing second in my rankings of teams with the most pro talent and now first among the programs in Omaha. Aloy leads the way — he’ll likely be selected by Pick 15 in this summer’s draft — but right-hander Gage Wood, left-hander Zach Root and left fielder Charles Davalan should all go by around Pick 50. Third baseman Brent Iredale is a sleeper pick who should also go in the top three rounds of this draft.
Catcher Ryder Helfrick and right-hander Gabe Gaeckle lead the 2026 group, and left-hander Cole Gibler tops the 2027 hopefuls. All three players could go in the first two rounds.
Coastal Carolina
Top Prospect: Caden Bodine, C
The Chanticleers are similar to Gonzaga’s men’s basketball team — a perennial, nationally relevant mid-major program. Bodine leads the way as a late-first/early-second-round prospect who stands out for his contact and framing. There isn’t a ton of top-five-round depth talent, but right-handers Jacob Morrison and Cameron Flukey (2026) and left-hander Dominick Carbone (2026) are the next-best talents, with Flukey the best of the bunch.
Louisville
Top Prospect: Patrick Forbes, RHP
Forbes is a late-first/early-second-round fit as a starter with big stuff but could end up as a reliever in the majors. Louisville’s lineup has some pro prospects: outfielder Zion Rose (2026), center fielder Lucas Moore (2026), first baseman Tague Davis (2027), third baseman Jake Munroe and catcher Matt Klein. Right-hander Tucker Biven, who has been trending up in the second half of the year and getting some starts.
LSU
Top Prospect: Kade Anderson, LHP
LSU was third (now second among teams in Omaha) in my rankings of the programs with the top pro talent. Anderson could be the No. 1 pick and seems like a lock to at least go in the top five. Outfielder Derek Curiel and shortstop Steven Milam lead the way in their 2026 group while right-handers Casan Evans and William Schmidt are the team’s top 2027 prospects.
There’s also plenty of depth beyond those players. Right-handers Anthony Eyanson and Chase Shores, second baseman Daniel Dickinson and designated hitter Ethan Frey are all in the conversation to go in the first three rounds of the 2025 draft.
Murray State
Top Prospect: Will Vierling, C
The Racers might be the team with the most improbable Cinderella run to Omaha in our lifetime. Vierling (cousin of Detroit Tigers outfielder Matt Vierling) is a later-round prospect for this year as a left-handed-hitting catcher. After checking with some scouts, that might be all of the pro talent on this team. A college team full of good college players who are hot at the right moment might be enough to make some noise in Omaha, but just getting this far is an incredible accomplishment.
Oregon State
Top Prospect: Aiva Arquette, SS
Arquette and right-hander Dax Whitney (2027) are both top-half-of-the-first-round talents to headline a strong Beavers club. There’s more high-end talent in the lineup and rotation with third baseman Trent Caraway, left fielder Gavin Turley, left-hander Nelson Keljo, right-hander Eric Segura (2026) and left-hander Ethan Kleinschmit (2026), who are all top three-to-four-round talents playing key roles for Oregon State this year.
UCLA
Top Prospect: Roch Cholowsky, SS (2026)
Cholowsky is the top pro prospect in college baseball, making him an early candidate to go first overall next summer. He has a complete game and is above average at almost everything on the field.
There’s some depth for the Bruins in the third-to-fifth-round range, particularly in the infield: catcher Cashel Duggar (2026), third baseman Roman Martin (2026), first baseman Mulivai Levu (2026), second baseman Phoenix Call (2026), left fielder Dean West (2026) and right-handers Cal Randall (2026) and Easton Hawk (2027). But they don’t have much else in the 2025 group.
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