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After five months in power, even the most loyal cabinet members would quietly admit it’s been a rocky run for Sir Keir Starmer and Labour.

The prime minister’s personal polling ratings have tumbled from a +7 in the post-election honeymoon to -29 now.

Many pensioners, business owners, entrepreneurs and farmers are angry, and between the Downing Street power struggles that became front page news, rows over freebies and the first cabinet resignation, it can at times be hard to pinpoint what this government is about and trying to achieve.

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Starmer won big in the summer but is struggling to punch through.

Thursday is a serious attempt to change that. Because this is when Sir Keir will give you, the voter, the nuts and bolts of what to expect in the first half of the ‘decade of renewal’ he has long talked about.

You will be getting a series of “mission milestones” from the prime minister to give you clear markers on which to measure this government and Whitehall – a sharp navigation tool for a government that has been somewhat buffeted by side winds since taking office.

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From Thursday onwards the “plan for change” will be, as one person in the top team puts it, the Northern Star of Starmer’s first term in office.

What it looks like will be a checklist of what the government wants to achieve and when it comes to the next election day, you will be able to judge whether Labour have delivered or not.

Sir Keir Starmer. File pic: PA
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Pic: PA

The pledges will be hung around the missions for government that Sir Keir set out in opposition in February 2023 which then formed the backbone of his manifesto.

In a nutshell, these five missions (a sixth, to tackle small boats was introduced in May 2024) were to turn the UK into the fastest growing economy in the G7, improve the NHS and cut NHS waiting lists, launch a new border security command to drive down small boat crossings, make Britain a clean energy power, safer streets and improve opportunities for all through improvements in childcare, schools and further education.

Turning missions into milestones

On Thursday, those missions will be turned into a set of milestones for this parliament.

The PM hopes it will help voters better understand what he wants to achieve to improve their lives, while giving us all a checklist to hold the government to account.

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Number 10 also wants these “measurable milestones” to galvanise delivery in Whitehall and force reform, be it through the use of artificial intelligence and tech, re-organisation, and efficiency savings.

I’m told there will be two elements to this.

The first part of what the PM will outline is about fixing the foundations – economic stability, secure borders and national security. Within that, the prime minister will make a clear commitment to reduce net migration and reduce small boat crossings.

The second part will be the mission milestones: For the NHS, there will be a pledge to carry out 92% of routine operations and appointments within 18 weeks by March 2029, a target that has not been hit for almost and decade and will require the current 6.7 million waiting list to be halved in the next five years.

Pledge for thousands more police officers

There will be a new promise for 13,000 police officers on the streets with every neighbourhood having a named, contactable police officer in their community, dealing with local issues.

There will be pledges too on early years education and recommitment that all electricity will come from renewables and nuclear by 2030.

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On the economy, the prime minister will pledge to improve living standards, as the more abstract mission to have the fastest growing economy in the G7 is made, to quote one government figure, “real for people around the kitchen table”.

Labour know all too well what happened to their US sister party the Democrats when they talked in broad terms about growth rather than telling voters what it really meant for their pocket, so you can expect the ‘growth commitment’ to be turned into some sort of disposable income target.

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Immigration: Starmer blames Tories

No migration mission milestone

As I understand it, there will not be a “mission milestone” on migration, which could well raise eyebrows on Thursday given that the prime minister explicitly added tackling small boats to his missions in the run-up to the election.

Five missions became six first steps in the general election campaign as Labour put tackling small boats on the same footing as the other long-term mission with a pledge to set up a new border command to drive down illegal crossings.

At the time, it was seen as an admission from the Labour opposition that they needed to give voters an offer on small boats and illegal migration. To not include it in the “milestones” on which Starmer is prepared to be measured by the public may well raise questions.

For its part, the prime minister’s team has been at pains to stress these new milestones are not an attempt at a reset, but rather a continuation of the mission-led government Sir Keir has been talking about for over 18 months, from opposition into power.

PM unbothered by critics

Insiders say the milestones are the “obvious next step” which Sir Keir and his team were always going to take and follow the processes that have characterised his ascent to the leadership and style of opposition: logical, methodical follow through of ideas he’s been working on.

Those who work with Sir Keir say he tends to be unbothered by the criticism and views it as the rough and tumble of getting on with it as he ploughs ahead with this plan.

But there is an acknowledgement in all of this that to have any hope of holding his fragile and shallow coalition of support together, then Starmer needs to take on, as one government figure put it, “the tsunami of cynicism”.

This cynicism has imbibed our politics in recent years on the back of broken promises around migration, NHS waiting lists, compounded by partygate and the Truss mini-budget that did for the Tories and for any residual trust in politics too, they said.

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Is Starmer the right leader to take on Farage?

Tackling Farage and Reform

Sir Keir’s election strategists Pat McFadden, who now runs the cabinet office at the heart of government, and Morgan McSweeney, who now runs Downing Street as the PM’s chief of staff, know that deliverables are their route to being able to answer the populist and insurgency politics driving the rise of Nigel Farage and Reform.

Former cabinet minister Harriet Harman pointed out in our Electoral Dysfunction podcast that if the story of the 2024 election was Reform eating into the Conservative vote, the battle of the next one will also be driven on whether Labour can hold off the party in strongholds such as Wales, Scotland and parts of the Red Wall where Reform came in second in dozens of seats.

If you look at council by-elections since the general election, argues Baroness Harman, Reform have gained 10 points, while Labour have lost 10 points and the Conservative party has stayed put.

Nigel Farage has made no secret of his desire to start taking votes off the new ‘establishment’, the Labour government.

Sir Keir is clearly alive to the threat, as just days after Donald Trump’s victory in the US election the prime minister said the economy and borders were his two top priorities in government.

These are the battlegrounds on which the Tories and Reform will try to fight them, with the former badly damaged on both and the latter now trying to take lumps out of Labour.

Risk in setting milestones

“There’s more at stake than losing the next election,” one senior Labour figure opined to me the other week. “People thinking we cannot fix problems is the real risk for all progressives. If people don’t believe politics can improve things it will only feed more into the politics of division and hate.”

There is also a risk in setting milestones. Too soft and they become meaningless, too ambitious without a concrete plan to deliver them, and you set yourself up to fail. “We have to prioritise and know the route map,’ explained one government figure. “We might not hit it,” they added, acknowledging the jeopardy.

What about Sunak’s targets?

You might remember Rishi Sunak’s five targets – halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut waiting lists and stop the boats.

At the time of the general election campaign, we went through these line-by-line in the Sky News Battle for No 10 leadership interviews, and Mr Sunak had to tell a live audience that on NHS waiting lists, stopping small boats and falling debt, he had failed.

He promised the public “no tricks, no ambiguity” and owned those failures before being given the verdict at the ballot box a few weeks later.

When I asked Sir Keir in Rio at the G7 summit what the essence of his leadership was, he said: “I want working people to be better off. I want people to feel the impact of our policies in their pocket so that they can enjoy life in the way they want to, with themselves and their family.

“The basic security is that working people want a decent wage that provides for them in their family. Education allows their children to go as far as their talent will take them, a health service that’s there when they need it. But in a nutshell, it’s about making working people feel better off, and I am determined that that will remain my focus.”

Thursday’s milestones will be built around that central goal to make people better off, in their pockets, and in their lives – be it better schooling for their kids or better access to the local GP or hospital, or cleaner energy.

Tangible pledges on which the prime minister can be measured. It may not be a reset but, if Number 10 gets it right, it has the potential to be a fresh start for a prime minister who has failed to make his mark with the electorate since he won that election.

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Two motorbike racers killed in 11-bike crash during British Supersport race at Oulton Park

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Two motorbike racers killed in 11-bike crash during British Supersport race at Oulton Park

Two motorcycle racers have died after a crash involving 11 bikes during a British Supersport Championship race at Oulton Park in Cheshire.

Owen Jenner, 21, was treated trackside and taken to the circuit’s medical centre, but organisers said he died from a “catastrophic head injury”.

Shane Richardson, 29, sustained severe chest injuries and was also given treatment at the scene.

He was transferred to Royal Stoke University Hospital but died before he arrived.

A third rider, Tom Tunstall, 47, is at the same hospital with what organisers called “significant back and abdominal injuries”.

Five others from the British Supersport race were taken to the track’s medical centre but didn’t need hospital treatment.

Motorsport Vision Racing, which runs the race series, said the crash happened on the first lap as riders exited turn one at Old Hall corner.

It said there was a “chain reaction” with 11 riders coming off their bikes.

“Due to the extreme severity of the incident and ongoing medical intervention, the remainder of the Bennetts British Superbike Championship event was cancelled,” organisers said in a statement.

Cheshire Police said they were investigating two deaths on behalf of the coroner.

“The Motorcycle Circuit Racing Control Board and MotorSport Vision Racing are investigating the full circumstances of the incident in conjunction with the Coroner and Cheshire Police,” the force said in a statement.

Jenner, from Crowborough, East Sussex, was the 2024 British GP2 champion and was signed to Rapid Honda.

New Zealand superbike racer Richardson was in the Astro JJR HIPPO Suzuki team sponsored by Hippo waste removal service.

Brady Dyer, a councillor in New Zealand’s Lower Hutt city, paid tribute to Richardson on Facebook saying he was a “talented” rider.

“My thoughts are with the family and friends of Shane Richardson, a talented Kiwi rider who tragically lost his life while doing what he loved.

“Shane was proud to be from Wainuiomata and was admired both locally and abroad for his skill and passion.

“This is a heartbreaking loss, and I know many in our community will be feeling it deeply.”

Harley McCabe paid tribute to Jenner as he said in a Facebook post: “Today I lost my team mate [heartbreak emoji], words cant explain how I feel right, now I’m absolutely devastated that I won’t see your smile again.

“You have been there for me over the years and been an amazing team mate and turned into more of an older brother to me!

“The awning will never be the same, we’ve lost a massive part of us all today.”

Mr McCabe added: “Sending love to Owen’s family and friends.”

The British Supersport Championship features 600cc machines and is the main support class to the blue riband professional British Superbikes series.

The Oulton Park event was the opening round of this year’s championship, which takes place at circuits around the UK.

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Both riders had posted on social media in recent days about looking forward to this weekend’s races

Jenner was also a superstock champion in 2020 and 2023, and won last year’s GP2 title with 18 wins out of 20 race finishes. After, he signed with British superbike team Rapid Honda.

Richardson, a father-of-two, worked as a part-time test rider for Triumph, according to his social media.

According to his team, Astro JJR Hippo Suzuki, he previously had a business crafting bespoke kitchens before moving into “competing on the UK’s premier racing circuits”.

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Man charged after British student nurse stabbed to death in Texas ‘following fight over cat’

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Man charged after British student nurse stabbed to death in Texas 'following fight over cat'

A man has been charged after a British student nurse was stabbed to death in Texas days before she was due to graduate, according to reports in the US.

Elizabeth Tamilore Odunsi, also known as Tamilore Odunsi, was found dead by police at her home in Houston shortly before 4pm local time on Saturday 26 April, Sky’s US partner network NBC News reports.

Officers had arrived to conduct a welfare check but when they knocked on the door there was no answer.

They saw blood on a rear concrete patio and entered the apartment, where they found the 23-year-old on the kitchen floor with multiple stab wounds.

Ms Odunsi, who is reported to be originally from London, was pronounced dead at the scene.

Chester Lamar Grant: Pic: Houston Police Department
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Chester Lamar Grant: Pic: Houston Police Department

A man, later identified as her roommate Chester Lamar Grant, was found in a bedroom with at least one stab wound and was taken to hospital in a critical condition, police said.

The 40-year-old was arrested on Friday 2 May and has been charged with Ms Odunsi’s murder.

He currently remains in custody at Harris County Jail in Texas with a bond set at $500,000 (around £375,000).

A magistrate has said in a preliminary hearing that the roommates had been involved in a fight over Grant’s cat, according to ABC News.

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Ms Odunsi had a TikTok account, Tamidollars, with more than 44,000 followers, where she posted about her life as a student at Texas Woman’s University.

A GoFundMe page set up to bring Ms Odunsi’s body back to the UK for burial had received more than £63,000 in donations as of 3am UK time on Tuesday.

In a statement on the GoFundMe page, her sister Georgina Odunsi writes: “Tami was a beautiful soul, full of light, ambition, and kindness… She moved from the UK to the United States to pursue her dream of becoming a nurse, dedicating herself to a life of care and service.”

She continues: “Tragically, Tami was brutally murdered just days before she was set to graduate from university – an unimaginable loss at a moment that should have marked the beginning of a bright and promising future.”

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How Nigel Farage is flirting with Labour’s most loyal voters – and the battle to stop him

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How Nigel Farage is flirting with Labour's most loyal voters - and the battle to stop him

For much of its history, the trade union movement’s main opponent has been the Conservative Party. But now it finds itself taking on a different type of adversary – one it might describe as a wolf in sheep’s clothing.

It began when Nigel Farage, known for being a staunch advocate of free trade and private markets, declined to criticise the Unite union for its bin strike in Birmingham, before calling for the nationalisation of British Steel following the near collapse of its plant in Scunthorpe.

The Reform UK leader has been sweet-talking the trade unions, speaking their language and brandishing their leaflets in public in what appears to his critics to be a new opportunistic strategy.

Farage’s courting of union members has alarmed the movement’s leaders – so much so that Sky News understands the executive of the Trades Union Congress (TUC), which represents unions across the country, has been holding meetings to draw up a strategy on how best to combat his appeal and more broadly, the far-right.

Over the weekend, as the two main parties were processing the battering they received in the local elections largely courtesy of Farage’s party, Unison’s general secretary Christina McAnea urged members of councils now controlled by Reform to join a union.

“Unions are there to ensure no one can play fast and loose with the law,” she said, after Farage threatened to sack staff working in areas such as diversity or climate change.

‘Political fraud’

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Paul Nowak, the general secretary of the TUC, has begun to step up his criticism of the former UKIP leader – accusing him of “cosplaying as a champion of working people”.

“He is not on the side of the working people,” he tells Sky News. “He’s on the side of bad bosses who want to treat staff like disposable labour.

“Unions will continue to expose him for the political fraud he is.”

At the moment, that campaign is largely focused on highlighting Farage’s voting record – in particular his decision to oppose the Employment Rights Bill, legislation unions say they have wanted for decades.

The bill offers protection from unfair dismissal from the first day of employment and sick pay for all workers from the first day of absence, among other measures.

The TUC says the bill is incredibly popular – and not just among Labour voters.

According to a poll it conducted of more than 21,000 people with campaign group Hope Not Hate, banning zero hours contracts is supported by more than seven in 10 UK voters – including two in three Reform voters from the 2024 election.

“People are going to find there are improvements to their life and work,” an insider tells Sky News. “We want them to understand who was for it, and who was against it.”

The TUC has also begun promoting videos on social media in which workers in the electric vehicle industry accuse Farage of threatening their jobs.

Farage’s response to the bill has been to claim that a clause within in that gives workers protection from third party harassment could herald the end of “pub banter”.

‘There has always been fellow feeling with unions’

But Gawain Towler, an ex-Reform press officer who has worked on and off for Farage for 20 years, insists his former boss isn’t against workers’ rights – he’s just opposed to Labour’s bill.

“Reform don’t see it as a workers rights’ bill – we think it takes away opportunities for work because it scares people away from employing people,” he says.

Nigel Farage reacts next to a local in Scunthorpe.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Nigel Farage campaigning during the local elections in Scunthorpe.
Pic: Reuters

He believes “mass migration” is the real obstacle to better wages and job security, and argues net zero policies are “costing union members their jobs”.

The government may point to a recent study suggesting the net zero sector has grown by 10% over the past year, supporting the equivalent of 951,000 full-time jobs.

For Farage’s allies, his courting of union members is neither disingenuous nor new.

“He’s anti-union management, he’s not anti-union,” says Towler, who noted Farage’s friendship with the late union leader and Brexit advocate Bob Crow.

“Nigel has always been a free trader, but he’s never been deeply partisan, which is why he was able to start the Brexit Party. There has always been that fellow feeling with unions.”

Indeed, on one issue, a commonality is emerging between Reform and the GMB union.

While general secretary Gary Smith has criticised Farage for being “soft on Russia” and for voting against the Employment Rights Bill, there is an agreement between the pair over the impact of net zero.

Those sceptical of the government’s plans for the green transition point to Port Talbot in Wales, where 2,500 workers are expected to lose their jobs, and Grangemouth, where the closure of Scotland’s last remaining oil refinery is expected to result in around 400 job losses.

Members of Unite union take part in a demonstration to protest at Petroineos plans to close Grangemouth oil refinery.
Pic: PA
Image:
Members of Unite union protest at plans to close Grangemouth oil refinery.
Pic: PA

Although Unite has no common truck with Reform, it has warned there should be “no ban without a plan” when it comes to issuing new oil and gas licences.

‘Labour has one shot with workers’

For some unions, Labour’s position on certain issues has provided Reform with an opening.

There’s disappointment at some Labour policies in government – from partly watering down the Employment Rights Bill to stave off dissent from business leaders, to welfare cuts and offering below-inflation pay rises for public sector workers.

Gawain Little, the general secretary of the General Federation of Trade Unions, tells Sky News the party risks leaving “space open for fakers like Farage to come along and pretend they have people’s interests at heart”.

Only a sense that austerity is over, likewise the cost of living crisis, will truly “challenge” the Reform leader, he says.

One GMB member says Farage’s strategy is “from the same playbook” as right-wing parties in Europe, such as the AfD in Germany and Georgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.

By “continuously legitimising” Reform by talking tough on migration, union activists who usually get the word out for Labour have been left demoralised.

Farage on the picket line?

The current distance with some unions did not start in government. It began in opposition, when Labour refused to back workers who were on strike and when the party did not endorse some candidates put forward by some of the more left-wing unions.

But so far, sources in Labour have dismissed Farage’s tactics as just words – and believe his previous anti-union rhetoric will weigh against him when he tries to court votes.

In fact, Mr Farage’s calls for the renationalisation of steel have been interpreted as him “trying to jump on the bandwagon” of Labour’s success.

However, Damian Lyons Lowe, the founder of pollster Survation, spots danger for Labour if Farage is able to successfully tilt in the direction of workers’ rights – especially if the government finds itself unable to follow.

He says taking the side of unions in an industrial dispute over pay would be an example of a classic “wedge” strategy that Farage can deploy to back Labour into a corner.

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Tories ‘are not doing a deal with Reform,’ Kemi Badenoch insists

And given the government’s initial 2.8% pay offer to public sector workers is below that reportedly drawn up by the independent pay review body for NHS workers and teachers, there is the very real prospect this scenario could arise.

“It could pose a real threat to Labour,” Lyons Lowe says, with union members in “post-industrial” areas potentially receptive to a message of “protectionism, industrial revival, and national self-sufficiency”.

Could what started with Farage brandishing leaflets end up with him joining the picket line?

While one union insider doesn’t think Farage will ultimately convince union leaders, members may be tempted.

The Starmer government has “one shot to deliver for workers”, they warn.

“If they don’t, Farage and Reform are waiting in the wings.”

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