The OPEC+ “precautionary” decision to postpone crude production hikes until after the first quarter bides the group time to assess developments in global demand, European growth and the U.S. economy, according to the coalition’s chair, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman.
On Thursday, the oil producers’ alliance agreed to extend several output cuts, with the timeline to start gradually unwinding a 2.2-million-barrels-per-day voluntary decline undertaken by a subset of OPEC+ members pushed back by three months to April.
Several group members are delivering a second voluntary production decline, while the coalition as a whole is also restricting production under its formal policy — both now set to stretch until Dec. 31, 2026, rather than the previously penciled end of 2025.
Speaking to CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday, the Saudi energy minister said OPEC+ had to undertake a “reality check” and reconcile supply-demand signals with market sentiment and attend to “the fundamentals, yet put together something that mitigate these negative sentiments within, of course, the contours of what OPEC+ can do.”
Barclays analysts partly echoed the minister’s feelings, saying the alliance “maintained a cautious stance” and suggesting “market share concerns among members are likely exaggerated.”
Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman on Oct. 5, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
OPEC+ faces a spate of variables affecting the supply-demand picture and geopolitical uncertainties, ranging from economic growth amid lowering inflation to conflict in the oil-rich Middle Eastern region and the January White House return of President-elect Donald Trump — a long-time champion of the U.S. oil industry, who applied protectionist tariffs on China and sanctioned Iran for its nuclear program during his first presidential mandate.
“There are so many other things, you know, growth in China, what is happening in Europe, growth in Europe … what is happening in the U.S. economy, such as interest rate, inflation,” the Saudi energy minister said Friday.
“But honestly, the primary cause for moving, or shifting, the bringing of these ballots is [supply-demand] fundamentals. It’s not a good idea to bring volumes in the first quarter.”
The first quarter typically sees inventory build-ups due to lower demand for transport fuels.
OPEC+ member compliance
In a Friday note, analysts at HSBC assessed that the Thursday OPEC+ agreement is “marginally supportive” for supply-demand balances, reducing the projected market surplus in 2025 to just 0.2 million barrels per day, if the oil producers’ alliance proceeds with hiking production in April.
“Another delay, which we would not rule out, would leave the market broadly in balance next year,” they said. “While OPEC+’s decision to hold off strengthens fundamentals in the near term, it could be seen as an implicit admission that demand is sluggish.”
Demand has been at the forefront of OPEC+ considerations, with the OPEC’s November Monthly Oil Market Report seeing 1.54 million barrels-per-day of year-on-year growth in 2025.
The Paris-based International Energy Agency, meanwhile, last month forecast that world oil demand will expand by 920,000 barrels per day this year and just under 1 million barrels per day in 2025.
Market concerns have especially lingered over the outlook of the world’s largest crude importer, China, whose convalescent economy has received a governmental boost in recent months by way of stimulus measures.
Abdulaziz bin Salman said OPEC+ had “not necessarily” lost confidence in global crude appetite or in recoveries in China, but admitted that “what is not helpful was the fact that some [OPEC+] countries were not attending to their commitments properly.”
OPEC+ has increasingly cracked down on member compliance with individual quotas — which has in the past included the likes of Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia — and requires overproducers to make up excess barrels with additional cuts. The deadline for these compensations is now the end of June 2026.
Oil prices have retreated despite the three-pronged extension to production hikes, with the Ice Brent contract with February expiry trading at $71.40 per barrel at 2:46 p.m. London time, down by 0.96% from the Thursday close. Front-month January Nymex WTI futures dipped to $67.63 per barrel, lower by 0.98% from the previous day’s settlement price.
“While prices are likely to stay volatile in the near term, we expect falling inventories this year and a closely balanced market next year, in contrast to market expectations for a strongly oversupplied market, to support prices over the coming months,” UBS Strategist Giovanni Staunovo said in a Friday note.
In what couldn’t have been more on-the-nose timing, a group of local California newspapers published an editorial on Christmas Eve calling for the end of a generous $2,000 voucher program intended to help low-income Californians afford electric bicycles for transportation.
The editorial was provided by the Southern California News Group, a collection of California newspapers owned by the hedge fund Alden Global Capital.
In it, the writers air a number of grievances against the program, which recently closed its first round of applications intended to provide around 1,500 e-bike vouchers of between US $1,750 to $2,000 each. The vouchers can be used to offset the price of electric bicycles and associated gear such as protective equipment, locks, etc.
The first complaint in the op-ed is that the total number of vouchers provided in the first round was relatively small compared to the large size of the California e-bike market. However, instead of suggesting that the budget be increased to help more Californians achieve transportation independence, as we called for recently, the editorial takes the opposite position of suggesting that the program simply be canceled.
Next, the writers bemoan an increase in electric bicycle and electric scooter accidents in recent years, suggesting that this should be weighed against the benefits of helping more Californians afford such vehicles.
However, the argument seems to conveniently overlook the fact that the vast majority of such accidents aren’t caused by e-bike riders, but rather those riders are in fact usually the victims. The actual danger to safety on roads is vehicular traffic, i.e. cars and trucks.
Furthermore, many studies have shown that in crashes caused by e-bike riders, such as when an e-bike rider hits another cyclist or pedestrian, the injuries are on average considerably lighter and more recoverable than in car-related crashes.
If the goal was to protect Californians, then instead of firmly clutching their pearls, perhaps the editorial writers should have urged a reduction in the use of cars and trucks, not a reduction in e-bike vouchers.
The op-ed even goes on to lament the number of children riding electric bicycles in California, though admits further on that children aren’t eligible to receive vouchers as part of California’s e-bike incentive program.
Electrek’s Take
California’s e-bike incentive program is certainly far from perfect. We even discussed many of its shortcomings last week. But the program’s essence is to do a good thing—using public tax money to benefit the public. The solution should be to improve the program, not to remove it. And the simple fact of the matter is that most people who are vehemently against the program are those who don’t directly benefit from it, even if they fail to realize that they will ultimately indirectly benefit.
Electric bicycles are one of the most cost-effective ways to provide transportation independence to marginalized and low-income groups. But it’s more than just that. They’re also the best way to get people out of cars and reduce traffic for everyone. Even ignoring the long-term environmental effects related to reducing the impacts of climate change, e-bikes are uniquely capable of making a larger impact on air quality today by helping to remove sources of emissions from a vehicle’s production all the way through its lifetime use and even to its eventual disposal/recycling. When someone rides an e-bike instead of taking a car, taxi, or bus, everyone’s lungs benefit.
Sure, the California program isn’t perfect. But if a media group owned by a wealthy hedgefund and catering to a well-to-do readership doesn’t like it, then that means it’s probably doing something helpful to people who actually need it. That’s the kind of world I want to live in, at least for as long as it’s still liveable.
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On today’s high-powered episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got Honda fuel cell manager David Perzynski here to talk about Honda’s forty year history developing hydrogen powertrains, and the role Honda sees for HFCEVs in a battery dominated world.
In the course of the conversation we talk about several hydrogen articles posted in 2024, as well as some Honda projects related to CES. You’ll be able to read more about those, below. Enjoy!
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!
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Sixthreezero’s wide range of electric bike models includes some fairly out-there models, but the company’s new four-wheeled electric bike really charts a new direction in the industry. Take a look at the new ANYterrain Stabilized 4-wheel Electric Bike.
It’s a mouthful of a name, but the ANYterrain Stabilized 4-wheel Electric Bike hauls more than just a bunch of extra words. The bike is rated to carry up to 350 lb (159 kg), and the 750W motor ensures it has the power to do so. With speeds of up to 20 mph (32 km/h), the quad bike is just as fast as most Class 1 and 2 e-bikes.
But the real game changer here is the design, offering four-wheeled stability that riders can’t get from a conventional three-wheeled trike.
Not only do four wheels provide better stability with a wider footprint, but the steering on the bike uses leaning geometry to take turns more naturally, helping riders feel even more stable.
With 20″ wheels in the rear and 16″ wheels in the front, the quad bike keeps a fairly low center of gravity. All four wheels use 4″ fat tires for better offroad riding and more comfortable shock absorption compared to narrow tires, and the rear wheels even feature a differential to better apply the motor’s power to the ground.
A twist throttle makes it easy to roll on that power, and a D/R switch on the bars lets riders put it in reverse for cases where they need a little help wiggling around in tight spaces. Pedaling backward from a stop can also engage the reverse. At 120 lbs (54 kg), this isn’t the type of bike you can just pick up and move around the garage without a little help so that reverse feature will likely come in handy.
A 48V and 20Ah battery offers 960Wh of capacity, which the company says translates into a range of up to 50 miles (80 km).
The battery is housed under a cargo basket in the rear, though a bench seat can be swapped for the basket, allowing riders to carry a passenger with them.
Electrek’s Take
This certainly won’t be a mass market type of e-bike, but I can see a real use case for neighborhood riding and local errands, especially for folks who don’t feel stable on a bicycle or even a trike.
Despite trikes offering great stability when going straight, some people can feel uncomfortable making turns on a trike, especially at higher speeds, because they can sometimes feel tippy under certain scenarios. This quad bike can still tip if you take a turn sharp enough, but the wider stance combined with the leaning steering means riders will even more stable than on a trike.
And since this will likely be used more by older riders, the reverse is an important feature for letting folks park the bike easily without dismounting and dragging it around.
There could be some legal hurdles in some areas that define “bicycles” as having either two or three wheels, but I’m guessing most cops aren’t jumping at the opportunity to ticket grandma for riding her quad bike on the local rails to trails network.
I love seeing more options like this, and I commend Sixthreezero for providing such interesting options to add to the market.
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