Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a precarious position. The franchise has been blessed for decades with Mount Rushmore-level players like Mario Lemieux and Sidney Crosby, and supported by future Hall of Famers like Jaromir Jagr, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. Whether the team was good or not, there was always the chance that something special would occur on a nightly basis.
For years, the Penguins were the class of the NHL. Brilliant playoff series against the Washington Capitals, incredible Game 7 victories and three Stanley Cups in four Cup Final appearances in the salary cap era (since 2005-06). There is an argument to be made that they have been the most consistently successful team in the cap era.
Now, things are different. Gone are the days of Stanley Cup expectations, and the playoffs are a stretch.
What should management do in the short and medium term to get this team back in contention? Make some additions this year for another kick at the can with the core veterans? Begin the process of building more for the future? Or try to thread the needle and do both?
ONE THING REMAINS consistent from the dominant era: the Penguins are being carried by players who will soon have their number in the rafters. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are scoring nearly a point per game in the twilight of their careers.
However, Crosby’s even-strength value ranks the worst in his illustrious career, just above break-even. Malkin has never been a defensive stalwart, but he’s losing the expected goals and scoring chance battle by more than 10% this season. While both are producing admirably, the Penguins need them to win their minutes on a more consistent basis.
Rickard Rakell has been excellent, providing tangible value on both sides of the puck at even strength. He’s projected for 52 points this season, a total that would be the third best of his 12-year career. His resurgence playing alongside Crosby has helped the Penguins find their footing over the last fortnight.
Meanwhile, Bryan Rust‘s production has dropped by 25%, and his defensive numbers have him as the worst defensive forward in the NHL this season. Drew O’Connor is struggling to produce offense, and is bottom-five in even-strength defensive value.
The team has an heir of nonchalance in their play, with careless turnovers, not finishing checks and fly-bys prevalent in all three zones. That can come with losing, but those are not habits that lead to winning. Even when the Penguins win, it is never comfortable. The Calgary Flames scored two quick goals in the third period this past Saturday, and you could feel the tension in the building. On Tuesday, the Penguins coughed up a 4-1 lead in the third period and needed an OT winner from Rust to take two points.
They are starting to win games, albeit in an unsustainable manner, and rank seventh by points percentage in the Metropolitan Division.
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Bryan Rust wins it for the Pens in OT with a wrister
Bryan Rust glides toward the net and scores on a wrister to give the Penguins an overtime win over the Panthers.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE is that every player mentioned except for O’Connor — who is better suited for a bottom-six role — is above the age of 30. The Penguins are old in NHL terms, relying on their legends to prop them up, and Father Time is catching up. On Saturday, the Penguins dressed only two players aged 25 or younger. Teams that have sustained success do so because they are able to inject young players in the lineup to complement veterans and continue the cycle.
The Boston Bruins added David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy to their core of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Zdeno Chara. There doesn’t appear to be a Pastrnak-level player available to the Penguins, unless they pick in the top 10 of the upcoming draft.
Owen Pickering has taken a step forward this season, and has shown signs he can become a quality top-four defenseman. Joel Blomqvist seems to be developing into an NHL starter. The acquisitions of Phil Tomasino and Cody Glass were good ones, and signal that GM Kyle Dubas is employing a different approach than a typical rebuild.
Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Karlsson are too good for the team to bottom out but aren’t good enough to carry a team on their own. Surrounding them with young NHL players who bring speed, skill and tenacity increases the potential of success. It is much more complex than a tear-down and rebuild, but Dubas has made a few shrewd moves to begin the process.
Should the Penguins have interest in continuing that path, there are two player archetypes to target in the trade market: the young player needing a change of scenery because he’s buried or not getting the opportunity in his current organization (as applies to Tomasino) or an AHL prospect that is on the cusp of making the NHL, who the Penguins believe could play sooner than with his current team (McGroarty).
More importantly, given the makeup of the Penguins’ lineup, contending teams will likely have interest in their veterans that need to be moved out as part of this process:
Anthony Beauvillier is providing value on both sides of the puck, and could prove to be a savvy acquisition for a playoff-bound team.
O’Connor has proven to be a versatile player capable of providing depth for a playoff team.
Noel Acciari and Blake Lizotte each have a year remaining on their contracts at reasonable numbers for fourth-line players that bring physicality and defensive value to a contending team.
Each of those players could likely return a mid-round pick or young player that has fallen out of favor. Tomasino was acquired for a fourth-round pick, and given the price for depth players at trade deadline, Dubas offloading players for picks (Lars Eller), and flipping those picks for players like Tomasino is tidy business.
Marcus Pettersson is generating interest from Vancouver, and should have other suitors as a pending free agent currently in a top-pairing role. Vancouver could have interest in Lizotte and/or Acciari, given the need to improve the bottom-six. Nils Hoglander is a player Pittsburgh has interest in, and fits the mold of a young player fallen out of favor with his current club who would benefit from a change of scenery.
While it would surely be more than Hoglander heading back to Pittsburgh for Pettersson, perhaps Pittsburgh would have interest in Sawyer Mynio, Nils Aman or Danila Klimovich. Hoglander’s value has tanked given his lack of ice time and production this season, and the Penguins should expect to get more than five-point player averaging under 12 minutes per game for a defenseman who’s performed admirably in a top-pairing role this season.
The price for defensemen at trade deadline is outrageous. Bottom-pairing blueliners such as Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, Chad Ruhwedel, Andrew Peeke, Colin Miller and Erik Johnson all returned picks in the third or fourth rounds. Pettersson is going to be one of the best defensemen available at the deadline, allowing Pittsburgh to command a hefty price for the pending free agent.
THERE ARE A FEW players who fit the pattern of players the Penguins would like to add, with Glass, Tomasino and McGroarty already acquired. Hoglander, as noted, seems to make the most sense. The Toronto Maple Leafs have their sights set on a deep playoff run and may be willing to part with Nick Robertson for a player they believe can help them win. Nashville’s Luke Evangelista and Montreal’s Jayden Struble or Justin Barron also come to mind as players who may benefit from a change of scenery.
Each of those players is 23 or younger, and has demonstrated potential to play a bigger role than their current situation.
Then, there is Trevor Zegras. The former cover athlete of NHL23, Zegras seems to have fallen out of favor in Anaheim after a contractual dispute that delayed the start of his 2023-24 season. Zegras played only 31 games last season, a disappointing outcome both for the 22-year-old and the Ducks. His overall value has steadily declined since the contract dispute; he’s projected for just 38 points this season.
Originally viewed as a top-six, playmaking center with dazzling skill, Zegras now finds himself on the wing. Anaheim has quite the cupboard of impressive young players up front (Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke) and a change of scenery for Zegras may help him find the point-per-game pace of which he’s capable. He’s exactly the type of player that Pittsburgh should covet: A player with sky-high potential and proven ability to play top-six minutes in the NHL. Complicating matters, Zegras sustained a lower-body injury on Wednesday, so a trade may have to wait until the offseason.
The Ottawa Senators are a curious case. It seems that a core piece may be on the move, whether that’s now or in the offseason. Could one of Josh Norris or Shane Pinto be a fit for Pittsburgh down the middle? Jacob Bernard-Docker is getting squeezed on the blue line, and could step in on Pittsburgh’s right side. Again, if the Senators are looking to make a move.
The Dallas Stars are a contender, and will be without Tyler Seguin for the remainder of the season. Given the significant LTIR space that opens, could a much larger trade materialize allowing the Penguins to land one of Logan Stankoven, Mavrik Bourque or Thomas Harley? If the Stars want to add a major player, the Penguins may be the perfect trade partner.
To be clear: Pittsburgh will not trade any of its franchise legends without being asked by that player to do so. They must do right by them, and Dubas has a track record of doing so. They will surely be interest if Crosby or Malkin want out and Pittsburgh will have an opportunity to recoup significant assets for them. That day has not arrived yet, but Dallas is a team to watch if it does.
Regardless of which players the Penguins acquire, none of it will matter if the organization doesn’t buy in from top to bottom. The young players need long runs in offensive roles to build confidence, learn from their mistakes and develop. Tomasino and Glass need to play in key situations, on special teams and develop into all-around players. Pickering should get an increased role if Pettersson is moved. When other young players are acquired, they need the same opportunity.
A tear-down and rebuild from the bottom is much easier than navigating the task that Kyle Dubas and his staff have here now. Skill does not evaporate into thin air, and if young players can rejuvenate the lineup at reduced cap hits, perhaps the Penguins will be competitive sooner rather than later.
ESPN baseball reporter. Covered the L.A. Rams for ESPN from 2016 to 2018 and the L.A. Angels for MLB.com from 2012 to 2016.
LOS ANGELES — Shohei Ohtani has proved to be a viable starting pitcher as the postseason approaches, but Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts acknowledged Wednesday that the organization has considered whether he might be more valuable helping a weary bullpen — perhaps especially in a shorter series like the three-game wild-card round.
It remains far more likely that Ohtani will serve as one of the Dodgers’ starters in the playoffs, but Roberts said the possibility of Ohtani helping out of the bullpen is “something we’re all talking about.”
“I know that we are going to be talking about it,” Roberts said. “I think the one thing you can say, though, is that we use him once every seven days, eight days, nine days — [11] days in between his last start — so to think that now it’s feasible for a guy that’s just coming off what he’s done last year, or didn’t do last year, to then now put him in a role that’s very, very unique — because he’s a very methodical, disciplined, routine-driven person. The pen is the complete opposite, right? You potentially could be taking on risk, and we’ve come this far, certainly with the kid gloves and managing.”
The Dodgers’ caution while managing Ohtani’s return to the mound in the wake of a second repair of his ulnar collateral ligament was evident Tuesday, when Roberts removed him after five no-hit innings despite just 68 pitches. That decision was predetermined, Roberts said, a function of the team’s hesitancy to push him beyond the five-inning threshold this season.
Ohtani said he understood the decision but added that he wants to “pitch as long as possible.” Later, while addressing the Japanese media, Ohtani expressed an openness to playing the outfield in order to remain in the lineup after exiting as a reliever, saying: “I’ve had conversations with various people, and the idea of me pitching in relief has come up. As a player, I want to be prepared to handle whatever role is needed. If I do end up pitching out of the bullpen, I think that could also mean I’d need to play in the outfield afterward, depending on the situation. So I want to be ready for anything, no matter what comes my way.”
Major League Baseball’s two-way rule, adopted in 2019, allows Ohtani to remain in the game as the designated hitter if he starts on the mound and is replaced. But if he were to start a game — even in the playoffs — as the DH, then pitch in relief, the Dodgers would lose the DH once Ohtani stops pitching. Ohtani’s only path to remaining in the game in that situation would be to play the outfield — something he did seven times with the Los Angeles Angels in 2021.
Ohtani, though, has not done any work in the outfield this year. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are naturally hesitant to add more responsibilities to a player who’s also a catalyst atop their lineup, not to mention a legitimate stolen-base threat.
Asked if Ohtani in the outfield is on his radar, Roberts smiled and said, “No.”
“There’s a lot of variables,” Roberts said, “but to know that he can potentially run out there, it’s great. Maybe just in theory. But, again, I love him for even throwing that out there.”
The Dodgers have long been open to the possibility of Ohtani closing out a critical game in October — like he did to seal a championship for his native Japan in the 2023 World Baseball Classic — but the prospect of him helping as a reliever has ramped up as the bullpen has continued to struggle and the rotation has taken form.
If Ohtani were to pitch in relief, it would be in the ninth inning. But juggling warming up in the bullpen if his turn to bat is coming up, or if he’s required to run the bases, could prove difficult. And the Dodgers would be at risk of either losing him as a hitter or forcing him to play the outfield if the game extends to extra innings.
“I don’t know if it’s a pipe dream,” Roberts said of Ohtani playing the outfield, “but it’s very commendable from Shohei.”
PITTSBURGH — The Chicago Cubs, who haven’t been to the postseason since the 2020 season, were in the mood to party Wednesday afternoon — and so they cut loose.
After clinching a National League playoff berth with an 8-4 victory against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cubs players and coaches high-fived and hugged each other on the field before taking the celebration up a notch in the visitors’ clubhouse at PNC Park.
With tarps in place and most wearing protective eyewear, a jubilant bunch doused each other with champagne and beer while others puffed victory cigars. Some did both.
Everything was muted during the coronavirus pandemic when the Cubs last qualified. They held off after making it in 2018, hoping to win the NL Central, just to finish second to the Milwaukee Brewers.
“It’s a grind of a season. You celebrate the first goal you accomplished,” manager Craig Counsell said. “We’ve made it to our first goal and that’s exciting. For everybody that’s been a part of the grind the whole year, for everybody that’s worked so hard to put us in this position, it’s a fun thing to do.
“You don’t get to do this in regular jobs — get to celebrate and throw champagne on each other. You just don’t get to do it, right? So you take advantage of it, have fun with it, enjoy each other and celebrate each other.”
Ian Happ homered and drove in three runs as the Cubs won their fourth straight for their seventh victory in eight games.
The Cubs (88-64) seemed destined for the playoffs since going 18-9 in May. Still, this hasn’t been straightforward. They lead the NL wild-card standings and are 4 1/2 games back of the first-place Brewers in the Central, having surrendered the division lead on July 28 after sitting alone at the top through July 19.
“When you’re in it, you think it’s going to happen every year,” pitcher Matthew Boyd said. “The fact and the reality is this is really hard to do. … This means so much to all of us. We’re not done yet. That’s the most important thing. We still know where we want to go.”
Happ popped the cork — in the clubhouse and on the field. The Pittsburgh native has played nine years with the Cubs. He was a rookie in 2017, when Chicago won the NL Central just one year after ending a 107-year drought without winning the World Series.
“There was definitely a mention of, ‘This is not the last,'” Crow-Armstrong said. “I mean, Ian learned from some of the best. Ian is one of the best at passing that on. Ian has meant a lot to me, just as a person. I’ll follow his lead. … I’ve got full trust in Ian Happ as a leader.”
Crow-Armstrong was dynamic with 25 home runs and 71 RBIs through in 95 games through the All-Star Break. The 23-year-old has cooled considerably, having four homers and driving in 19 runs since, and is looking forward to starting fresh in the playoffs.
“I don’t know. I’ve never done this,” Crow-Armstrong said. “I’m just excited to keep doing what we’re doing, doing what we’ve done all year. I’ve never experienced October baseball. I’m just ready to go all in.”
It might be necessary.
Kyle Tucker, an All-Star right fielder, has been on the injured list since Sept. 9 with a left calf injury. He will visit with a physical therapy group in Florida used in his recovery from a right leg injury while with the Houston Astros last season.
Tucker is hitting .270 with 22 home runs, 73 RBIs and 25 stolen bases in his first season since being traded to the Cubs in December.
“We’re aligned with Kyle,” Counsell said. “This is the best way for him to make some improvements. Unfortunately, we’ve plateaued and we weren’t making progress. That’s frustrating for Kyle.”
For every mention of how great Wednesday’s celebratory moment was, there was one of how it’s not enough. The Cubs want more. Not just the division, but the World Series. Tucker would make that easier, but this wasn’t the day to worry.
“We got to go to the playoffs in 2020, but doing it near the end of a true 162 is totally different,” Nico Hoerner said. “Baseball is such a game of persistence and comradery. Getting to celebrate like this is a really special thing.
“It’s obviously not our ultimate goal, but it’s still a huge milestone along the way. It’s awesome to celebrate with this group.”
And with the Cubs reaching their first goal on the road, Counsell couldn’t help but think about their fans back in Chicago.
“You want the fans to be able to experience October baseball and be a part of that and take them on a journey with the team. That’s so much fun,” Counsell said. “Those are the people you think about when this stuff happens — everybody that puts in the work, everybody that shows up at 12 o’clock for a night game and all the fans that come every day to Wrigley.
“We want them to be able to enjoy the best of baseball, which is October.”
MILWAUKEE — The Brewers have lost another pitcher to injury and are unsure when All-Star closer Trevor Megill can return from his with the playoffs approaching.
The latest blow came Wednesday when Jose Quintana landed on the 15-day injured list with a left calf strain. The veteran lefty was hurt in the fourth inning of Sunday’s 3-2 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Quintana, who has been fighting for a spot in the postseason rotation, was injured as he hustled to cover first. He crossed the bag ahead of José Fermín to record the final out of the inning but appeared to be limping slightly as he made his way to the dugout. Quintana later left American Family Field in a walking boot while on his way to have an MRI.
The Brewers decided to place Quintana on the injured list after he tested the calf on Wednesday.
Right-handed reliever Nick Mears was reinstated from the 15-day injured list to replace Quintana.
Meanwhile, there’s continuing concern around Megill, who has been dealing with a right flexor strain and has been on the injured list since Aug. 27 with what was initially thought to be a mild injury.
Megill, who is 5-3 with a 2.54 ERA and 30 saves, was scheduled to play catch before Wednesday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels but his recent throwing sessions haven’t gone as well as hoped, manager Pat Murphy said.
“Nothing great. It was not revealing but he didn’t want to push it anymore,” Murphy said, noting that Megill’s expected return has been pushed back.
“We all want him to pitch before the postseason,” Murphy said.
When asked if that was unlikely, the Milwaukee skipper said he didn’t have a concrete answer.
“I’m hopeful,” Murphy said.
In further discussing Megill’s injury, Murphy said “it’s not checking out medically.”
“His health is paramount,” Murphy said. “He’s working through the process of trying to hurry up and that’s not always the best thing for a flexor strain. We’re disappointed in the situation.”
Murphy spoke cautiously about trying to have Megill push through the injury in the playoffs, should it come to that.
“It’s not recommended,” Murphy said. “It’s got to have some time to heal. Unfortunately, we don’t have that time.”
On a positive note for the Brewers, Robert Gasser, who has been rehabbing from Tommy John surgery performed in June 2024, pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings for Triple-A Nashville on Wednesday.
“I think you’ll see him soon,” Murphy said, adding that Gasser could serve in a multi-inning role.
Right-hander Chad Patrick, called up from Nashville on Sept. 9, struck out the side in the eighth inning of Tuesday night’s game against the Angels.
“Chad Patrick through the ball good last night, that’s encouraging,” Murphy said. “Just trying to get a feel for what we might do over these last 11 days to make (the bullpen) serviceable on the back end.”