Rachel Doerrie is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a precarious position. The franchise has been blessed for decades with Mount Rushmore-level players like Mario Lemieux and Sidney Crosby, and supported by future Hall of Famers like Jaromir Jagr, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. Whether the team was good or not, there was always the chance that something special would occur on a nightly basis.
For years, the Penguins were the class of the NHL. Brilliant playoff series against the Washington Capitals, incredible Game 7 victories and three Stanley Cups in four Cup Final appearances in the salary cap era (since 2005-06). There is an argument to be made that they have been the most consistently successful team in the cap era.
Now, things are different. Gone are the days of Stanley Cup expectations, and the playoffs are a stretch.
What should management do in the short and medium term to get this team back in contention? Make some additions this year for another kick at the can with the core veterans? Begin the process of building more for the future? Or try to thread the needle and do both?
ONE THING REMAINS consistent from the dominant era: the Penguins are being carried by players who will soon have their number in the rafters. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are scoring nearly a point per game in the twilight of their careers.
However, Crosby’s even-strength value ranks the worst in his illustrious career, just above break-even. Malkin has never been a defensive stalwart, but he’s losing the expected goals and scoring chance battle by more than 10% this season. While both are producing admirably, the Penguins need them to win their minutes on a more consistent basis.
Rickard Rakell has been excellent, providing tangible value on both sides of the puck at even strength. He’s projected for 52 points this season, a total that would be the third best of his 12-year career. His resurgence playing alongside Crosby has helped the Penguins find their footing over the last fortnight.
Meanwhile, Bryan Rust‘s production has dropped by 25%, and his defensive numbers have him as the worst defensive forward in the NHL this season. Drew O’Connor is struggling to produce offense, and is bottom-five in even-strength defensive value.
The team has an heir of nonchalance in their play, with careless turnovers, not finishing checks and fly-bys prevalent in all three zones. That can come with losing, but those are not habits that lead to winning. Even when the Penguins win, it is never comfortable. The Calgary Flames scored two quick goals in the third period this past Saturday, and you could feel the tension in the building. On Tuesday, the Penguins coughed up a 4-1 lead in the third period and needed an OT winner from Rust to take two points.
They are starting to win games, albeit in an unsustainable manner, and rank seventh by points percentage in the Metropolitan Division.
Bryan Rust wins it for the Pens in OT with a wrister
Bryan Rust glides toward the net and scores on a wrister to give the Penguins an overtime win over the Panthers.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE is that every player mentioned except for O’Connor — who is better suited for a bottom-six role — is above the age of 30. The Penguins are old in NHL terms, relying on their legends to prop them up, and Father Time is catching up. On Saturday, the Penguins dressed only two players aged 25 or younger. Teams that have sustained success do so because they are able to inject young players in the lineup to complement veterans and continue the cycle.
The Boston Bruins added David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy to their core of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Zdeno Chara. There doesn’t appear to be a Pastrnak-level player available to the Penguins, unless they pick in the top 10 of the upcoming draft.
Owen Pickering has taken a step forward this season, and has shown signs he can become a quality top-four defenseman. Joel Blomqvist seems to be developing into an NHL starter. The acquisitions of Phil Tomasino and Cody Glass were good ones, and signal that GM Kyle Dubas is employing a different approach than a typical rebuild.
Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Karlsson are too good for the team to bottom out but aren’t good enough to carry a team on their own. Surrounding them with young NHL players who bring speed, skill and tenacity increases the potential of success. It is much more complex than a tear-down and rebuild, but Dubas has made a few shrewd moves to begin the process.
Should the Penguins have interest in continuing that path, there are two player archetypes to target in the trade market: the young player needing a change of scenery because he’s buried or not getting the opportunity in his current organization (as applies to Tomasino) or an AHL prospect that is on the cusp of making the NHL, who the Penguins believe could play sooner than with his current team (McGroarty).
More importantly, given the makeup of the Penguins’ lineup, contending teams will likely have interest in their veterans that need to be moved out as part of this process:
Anthony Beauvillier is providing value on both sides of the puck, and could prove to be a savvy acquisition for a playoff-bound team.
O’Connor has proven to be a versatile player capable of providing depth for a playoff team.
Noel Acciari and Blake Lizotte each have a year remaining on their contracts at reasonable numbers for fourth-line players that bring physicality and defensive value to a contending team.
Each of those players could likely return a mid-round pick or young player that has fallen out of favor. Tomasino was acquired for a fourth-round pick, and given the price for depth players at trade deadline, Dubas offloading players for picks (Lars Eller), and flipping those picks for players like Tomasino is tidy business.
Marcus Pettersson is generating interest from Vancouver, and should have other suitors as a pending free agent currently in a top-pairing role. Vancouver could have interest in Lizotte and/or Acciari, given the need to improve the bottom-six. Nils Hoglander is a player Pittsburgh has interest in, and fits the mold of a young player fallen out of favor with his current club who would benefit from a change of scenery.
While it would surely be more than Hoglander heading back to Pittsburgh for Pettersson, perhaps Pittsburgh would have interest in Sawyer Mynio, Nils Aman or Danila Klimovich. Hoglander’s value has tanked given his lack of ice time and production this season, and the Penguins should expect to get more than five-point player averaging under 12 minutes per game for a defenseman who’s performed admirably in a top-pairing role this season.
The price for defensemen at trade deadline is outrageous. Bottom-pairing blueliners such as Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, Chad Ruhwedel, Andrew Peeke, Colin Miller and Erik Johnson all returned picks in the third or fourth rounds. Pettersson is going to be one of the best defensemen available at the deadline, allowing Pittsburgh to command a hefty price for the pending free agent.
THERE ARE A FEW players who fit the pattern of players the Penguins would like to add, with Glass, Tomasino and McGroarty already acquired. Hoglander, as noted, seems to make the most sense. The Toronto Maple Leafs have their sights set on a deep playoff run and may be willing to part with Nick Robertson for a player they believe can help them win. Nashville’s Luke Evangelista and Montreal’s Jayden Struble or Justin Barron also come to mind as players who may benefit from a change of scenery.
Each of those players is 23 or younger, and has demonstrated potential to play a bigger role than their current situation.
Then, there is Trevor Zegras. The former cover athlete of NHL23, Zegras seems to have fallen out of favor in Anaheim after a contractual dispute that delayed the start of his 2023-24 season. Zegras played only 31 games last season, a disappointing outcome both for the 22-year-old and the Ducks. His overall value has steadily declined since the contract dispute; he’s projected for just 38 points this season.
Originally viewed as a top-six, playmaking center with dazzling skill, Zegras now finds himself on the wing. Anaheim has quite the cupboard of impressive young players up front (Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke) and a change of scenery for Zegras may help him find the point-per-game pace of which he’s capable. He’s exactly the type of player that Pittsburgh should covet: A player with sky-high potential and proven ability to play top-six minutes in the NHL. Complicating matters, Zegras sustained a lower-body injury on Wednesday, so a trade may have to wait until the offseason.
The Ottawa Senators are a curious case. It seems that a core piece may be on the move, whether that’s now or in the offseason. Could one of Josh Norris or Shane Pinto be a fit for Pittsburgh down the middle? Jacob Bernard-Docker is getting squeezed on the blue line, and could step in on Pittsburgh’s right side. Again, if the Senators are looking to make a move.
The Dallas Stars are a contender, and will be without Tyler Seguin for the remainder of the season. Given the significant LTIR space that opens, could a much larger trade materialize allowing the Penguins to land one of Logan Stankoven, Mavrik Bourque or Thomas Harley? If the Stars want to add a major player, the Penguins may be the perfect trade partner.
To be clear: Pittsburgh will not trade any of its franchise legends without being asked by that player to do so. They must do right by them, and Dubas has a track record of doing so. They will surely be interest if Crosby or Malkin want out and Pittsburgh will have an opportunity to recoup significant assets for them. That day has not arrived yet, but Dallas is a team to watch if it does.
Regardless of which players the Penguins acquire, none of it will matter if the organization doesn’t buy in from top to bottom. The young players need long runs in offensive roles to build confidence, learn from their mistakes and develop. Tomasino and Glass need to play in key situations, on special teams and develop into all-around players. Pickering should get an increased role if Pettersson is moved. When other young players are acquired, they need the same opportunity.
A tear-down and rebuild from the bottom is much easier than navigating the task that Kyle Dubas and his staff have here now. Skill does not evaporate into thin air, and if young players can rejuvenate the lineup at reduced cap hits, perhaps the Penguins will be competitive sooner rather than later.
The Toronto Blue Jays and free agent outfielder Anthony Santander have agreed to a five-year deal that is worth more than $90 million, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan on Monday.
The switch-hitting Santander, 30, hit .235 for the Baltimore Orioles in 2024 but set career-highs with 44 home runs, 102 RBIs and 91 runs scored.
He spent his first eight MLB seasons with the Orioles, hitting 155 home runs with a .246 batting average.
MLB Network first reported Santander had reached an agreement with the Blue Jays.
ATLANTA — Rocco Spindler still remembers the feeling that permeated the air in South Bend, Indiana, during late November in 2021.
The Notre Dame offensive lineman — then a freshman — and his teammates had just finished an 11-1 season only to be hit with the news that their head coach, Brian Kelly, was leaving for LSU while they still had an outside shot at making the College Football Playoff.
“There was a lot of uncertainty that whole week,” Spindler said. “We didn’t know who else was leaving, who else was staying.”
As November turned into December, Spindler and the rest of the team found themselves grasping for any semblance of familiarity or comfort. In Marcus Freeman, they found it.
“He was the one guy we all gravitated toward,” Spindler said of the Irish’s then-first-year defensive coordinator.
Naturally, the players who had seen what Freeman could do, who had been coached by him and felt his impact on their game, viewed the idea of Freeman succeeding Kelly as a no-brainer and campaigned for it.
“It was hectic,” said defensive lineman Howard Cross III. “But immediately everybody was like, ‘Why doesn’t Coach Freeman just be the head coach?’ Everybody agreed.”
“Seeing his ability to lead and how he handles certain situations was all we needed,” said defensive lineman Rylie Mills. “I think we all kind of knew what he was capable of.”
The players’ preference was no secret. Spindler remembers upperclassmen who would not be there the following season expressing their desire for Freeman to take over. It didn’t take long for them to get their wish.
The video of the team’s reaction to Freeman’s hiring immediately became a touchpoint for the program’s decision. It wasn’t about hiring anyone connected to Notre Dame. As the caption “player’s coach” alongside the footage of Freeman being mobbed by his players showed, the decision had the potential to start a new era for the program.
“It was absolutely risky to hire somebody at a place like Notre Dame who doesn’t have a track record as a head coach, but he won the job,” former Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick, who hired Freeman, told ESPN. “We had plenty of really attractive candidates, but based on my experience with him, based on what the players told me, and based on a really excellent interview, he distinguished himself.”
In the three years since that moment, Freeman has built on that foundation, showing himself not only to be the right person for the job, but also being able to channel his approach into leading Notre Dame here, one game away from its first national championship since 1988.
“We were so excited [in 2021], but it was trust beyond knowing,” Mills said. “Now, he’s taken it to a whole other level.”
Here is a glimpse into some of the moments that make Freeman, the coach.
‘He would be the guy to always bring the juice’
Freeman’s first shot at a Division I coordinator job came at Cincinnati, where then-head coach Luke Fickell hired Freeman to be his defensive coordinator. Freeman was only 30 years old, but it didn’t take long for him to find his footing with a group that had won just four games the year prior.
“He came in and immediately made a first impression on us,” said former Cincinnati defensive lineman Kimoni Fitz. “We were trying to find ourselves and restart the culture with the new staff, and he made it easy.”
It helped that the results materialized quickly. Freeman’s defense led the AAC in rushing defense, scoring defense and total defense, and it ranked among the top 15 in FBS in all three categories.
According to Fitz, as the defense improved over the season, Freeman would get with the Bearcats’ video team and cut up a highlight reel of their best plays from the previous game and show it to the defense as a way of motivation.
“We would already envision ourselves making the plays,” Fitz said.
Then, as Miami’s turnover belt became an object of fascination in the sport, Freeman instituted the “turnover dunk,” where players who created the turnover would dunk the ball on a small rim.
“He was such a high-energy guy,” Fitz said. “If we came to practice without any juice that day, he would be the guy to always bring the juice, and we would live off that and play off that.”
Freeman was also able to draw from his playing experience — Freeman had been a linebacker drafted by the Chicago Bears in the fifth round in 2009 — to get the most out of his players, a trait that kept resurfacing as Freeman was rising.
“He wasn’t ever too big for anybody,” Fitz said. “Because he was a former player, he knew what it takes and he knew what we actually went through every day and respected that. You wanted to play hard for him.”
‘The head coach is telling me he believes in me’
Irish running back Jadarian Price won’t soon forget getting called into Freeman’s office. After a fall camp practice, Freeman pulled the junior aside and flipped on some film from practice. Freeman was neither interested in praising Price nor scolding him. He instead wanted to challenge him.
“He was like, ‘I really believe, and we all believe, that you can make plays like this,'” Price recalled Freeman saying. “We know that you can break away and run, but I want to see you strap up and break through the line.”
Price first took the challenge as a negative criticism, but when he thought about it more, he was able to see what Freeman was doing, not just for him but for all the other players on the team he was challenging.
“The head coach is telling me he believes in me, and he thinks I could do this better,” Price said. “It was a great thing to have. If the coaches are quiet, it’s not such a good thing, but if they’re telling you something, it’s a good thing.”
As Freeman has attempted to get the most out of this particular team, players have become accustomed to his coaching style.
“A lot of people say he’s a great coach. No one really truly understands and experiences that [like us],” Price said. “How he is behind the scenes at his meetings, the way he speaks, his attentiveness, his involvement with every player. I think that’s really rare, him not just being the CEO of the program, but the coach who steps in and figures out a way to make every player better and get to know every player.”
Talk to any Notre Dame player, and they’ll harp on a similar thing: how easy it is to play for Freeman because of who he is and what he does, not just on the field, but off of it.
“He has a relationship with every single person on his team of how that person needs to be interacted with and motivated,” said kicker Mitch Jeter.
Linebacker Jack Kiser perhaps knows this as well as anyone on Notre Dame’s roster. Kiser has been at the program since 2019 and was coached by Freeman as a defensive coordinator in 2021. The list of challenges and motivation, constructive criticism and praise that Kiser has received from Freeman is long, but what sticks out to Kiser the most is how Freeman has been consistent through it all.
“You don’t talk to him and walk away feeling like he just lied to you or he was someone different,” Kiser said. “He’s just a very authentic, genuine person, and I think you see that on the sideline, too. You see his raw emotion come out. You see the way he processes things. He’s not able to hide some of his emotions, and that just goes to show that he really cares about us players and he cares about this place, this program.”
‘The right guy at the right time for Notre Dame’
“What was a place-kicker who had spent most of his time in the Carolinas doing here?”
That’s what Jeter, covered in as many layers as possible, thought to himself as he walked across the Notre Dame campus on a day when the temperature dipped well below freezing. The South Carolina transfer had recently arrived on campus and was experiencing a bit of culture shock. Freeman didn’t exactly coddle him.
“He really instilled in me that you come to Notre Dame to choose hard,” Jeter said with a smile. “Even if that is the weather or the class schedule or the football.”
Although Freeman said he didn’t follow Notre Dame football much before he was hired in 2021, the way that he has embraced the program’s history has stood out to players. Offensive lineman Aamil Wagner recalled a meeting earlier this season where they discussed the 1988 Notre Dame team, the last Irish team to win a national title, and tried to gather inspiration from it.
“All season he has gotten us so invested in the concept of going after team glory,” Wagner said. “Everyone remembers that 1988 team and how they got the crown jewel of the sport. We know what came before us, but we want to chart our own path.”
“He tells us all the time to be misfits,” Price said. “That seems like an unusual word for Notre Dame, but people like me, I’m not Catholic myself, I’m from Texas. I didn’t grow up thinking I would be at Notre Dame, and look, we have a minority head coach at Notre Dame. So it makes you feel a lot more comfortable as a player and just being led by someone who doesn’t care what the world thinks and stands by themselves.”
Whether it’s bringing transfers into the fold seamlessly or reinstituting pregame mass for the program, Freeman — who is the first Black and Asian coach to be in the title game — has struck a deft touch between utilizing Notre Dame’s tradition and history to bring the Irish together.
“He has completely embraced the University of Notre Dame and the University of Notre Dame has fully embraced him,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock.
Said defensive coordinator Al Golden: “Marcus is the right guy at the right time for Notre Dame.”
‘Every week is now a playoff game’
The game that kept Notre Dame from heading into the title game with an undefeated record is also the one that likely allowed them to reach the championship. That particular thesis about the Irish’s shocking loss to Northern Illinois in September has now become folklore for this year’s players and coaches, in large part due to the way they say Freeman handled the defeat.
“After the NIU loss, a lot of coaches may scream and yell, and I’ve been in the building before where that’s happened,” Mills said. “But he wasn’t doing that.”
“The mood of the team and the feeling around the team always comes from the top down,” Denbrock said. “His ability to compartmentalize it a little bit, to analyze it, to kind of be willing to be vulnerable, us as a coaching staff, him as the leader of the program, and look at the things that we felt like we really needed to fix.”
Freeman, like he had done at Cincinnati, turned to a video, this time not of anything related to football, but of a high school hurdler who was tripped up by the second hurdle in a 100-meter race. The hurdler got back up and made a comeback, qualifying for the final heat where she won and set a personal record.
“He was like, ‘This is us and this is what we can do. Every week is now a playoff game,'” Mills said. “He just brought that intensity that we knew we didn’t have with NIU, and we kept that with us the rest of the season.”
Instead of burying the loss, Freeman utilized it, and it fueled the team’s dominance the rest of the season.
“He’s big about remembering the scars in the past. He’s always mentioning the scars and the troubles and the adversity, how to handle success,” Price said. “Even when we have success, even when we beat big teams like Penn State, Georgia, he always refers back to the past. Remember how you felt at this moment. That’s going to give us motivation.”
When the Irish faced off against USC in the last week of the regular season and headed into halftime tied with the Trojans — the first time since NIU they hadn’t had a halftime lead — they were able to remember their shortcomings, come out of the locker room and not let it happen again, outscoring the Trojans 35-21 in the second half. After the game, no one was shy about remembering exactly how many days it had been since that fateful NIU loss.
“To see where we were 84 days ago to where we’re at now, it’s a testament to trust and the decisions of those guys in that locker room,” Freeman said then. “This is what it’s all about, man. It’s the journey.”
‘One of us’
As the clock struck midnight in Miami on Friday Jan.10, Notre Dame players were celebrating their Orange Bowl victory over Penn State in the locker room when suddenly, Kiser made an announcement: It was Freeman’s birthday.
After congratulating him and singing happy birthday, the Irish players took the opportunity to poke fun at their head coach.
“Someone said he was turning 39,” defensive lineman Junior Tuihalamaka said. “We were all like ‘S—, Coach, you’re old’.”
Tuihalamaka laughs now thinking of the moment, while acknowledging the reality that underscores the barb: Freeman is one of the five youngest coaches in FBS.
“When he recruited me as a defensive coach, I felt the vibe and the chemistry I had with him right off the bat,” Tuihalamaka said. “He felt like an older brother and still feels kind of like an older brother.”
And while age does nothing to determine a win-loss record, to hear Notre Dame players talk about it, Freeman’s youth and the way he carries himself is a monumental part of his magnetism.
“Freeman is very personal and player-focused,” Cross said. “Kelly was a strategist. Coach Freeman is a players’ coach.”
Whether it’s letting players decide on the practice playlists and, as Prince put it, “vibing with us,” or making an effort to be invested in players’ lives outside of the sport, Freeman has struck the ideal balance between coach, mentor and friend.
“Everywhere he goes, he’s one of us,” said quarterback Riley Leonard. “You’ll see him [in Atlanta], he’s just wearing a jumpsuit, chilling with the boys, hanging out for media day. Then he knows how to flip the switch.”
“He understands us on a level that other coaches probably wouldn’t understand us on,” running back Jeremiyah Love said. “We love him. We respect him. We want to make him look good. He wants to make us look good.”
Notre Dame looks better than it has in a long time, and at the crux of it all is this symbiotic relationship between Freeman and the players. What started back in 2021 as a decision that had an entire team jumping up and down with Freeman as he was promoted to be their head coach has turned into one of the best runs the Irish have had in recent memory.
“I think the special thing about that video is he’s the defensive coordinator, and yet if you look, the whole offense was ecstatic when he walked through that door,” Kiser said. “Everyone believed in him then, and everyone believes in him now.”
ATLANTA — No major decisions were made regarding the future format of the 12-team College Football Playoff on Sunday, but “tweaks” to the 2025 season haven’t been ruled out, CFP executive director Rich Clark said.
Sunday’s annual meeting of the FBS commissioners and the presidents and chancellors who control the playoff wasn’t expected to produce any immediate course of action, but it was the first time that people with the power to change the playoff met in person to begin a review of the historic expanded bracket.
Clark said the group talked about “a lot of really important issues,” but the meeting at the Signia by Hilton set the stage for bigger decisions that need to be made “very soon.”
Commissioners would have to unanimously agree upon any changes to the 12-team format to implement them for the 2025 season.
“I would say it’s possible, but I don’t know if it’s going to happen or not,” Clark said on the eve of the College Football Playoff National Championship game between Ohio State and Notre Dame. “There’s probably some things that could happen in short order that might be tweaks to the 2025 season, but we haven’t determined that yet.”
A source with knowledge of the conversations said nobody at this time was pushing hard for a 14-team bracket, and there wasn’t an in-depth discussion of the seeding process, but talks were held about the value of having the four highest-ranked conference champions earn first-round byes.
Ultimately, the 11 presidents and chancellors who comprise the CFP’s board of managers will vote on any changes, and some university leaders said they liked rewarding those conference champions with byes because of the emphasis it placed on conference title games.
Mississippi State president Mark Keenum, the chair of the board of managers, said they didn’t talk about “what-ifs,” but they have tasked the commissioners to produce a plan for future governance and the format for 2026 and beyond.
Starting in 2026, any changes will no longer require unanimous approval, and the Big Ten and the SEC will have the bulk of control over the format — a power that was granted during the past CFP contract negotiation. The commissioners will again meet in person at their annual April meeting in Las Colinas, Texas, and the presidents and chancellors will have a videoconference or phone call on May 6.
“We’re extremely happy with where we are now,” Keenum said. “We’re looking towards the new contract, which is already in place with ESPN, our media provider, for the next six years through 2032. We’ve got to make that transition from the current structure that we’re in to the new structure we’ll have.”
Following Sunday’s meeting, sources continued to express skepticism that there will be unanimous agreement to make any significant changes for the 2025 season, but a more thorough review will continue in the following months.
“The commissioners and our athletic director from Notre Dame will look at everything across the board,” Clark said. “We’re going to tee them up so that they could really have a thorough look at the playoff looking back after this championship game is done … and then look back and figure out what is it that we need.”