Rebuild? Retool? How the Penguins should approach the rest of 2024-25
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Rachel Doerrie, ESPN
The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a precarious position. The franchise has been blessed for decades with Mount Rushmore-level players like Mario Lemieux and Sidney Crosby, and supported by future Hall of Famers like Jaromir Jagr, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang. Whether the team was good or not, there was always the chance that something special would occur on a nightly basis.
For years, the Penguins were the class of the NHL. Brilliant playoff series against the Washington Capitals, incredible Game 7 victories and three Stanley Cups in four Cup Final appearances in the salary cap era (since 2005-06). There is an argument to be made that they have been the most consistently successful team in the cap era.
Now, things are different. Gone are the days of Stanley Cup expectations, and the playoffs are a stretch.
What should management do in the short and medium term to get this team back in contention? Make some additions this year for another kick at the can with the core veterans? Begin the process of building more for the future? Or try to thread the needle and do both?
ONE THING REMAINS consistent from the dominant era: the Penguins are being carried by players who will soon have their number in the rafters. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are scoring nearly a point per game in the twilight of their careers.
However, Crosby’s even-strength value ranks the worst in his illustrious career, just above break-even. Malkin has never been a defensive stalwart, but he’s losing the expected goals and scoring chance battle by more than 10% this season. While both are producing admirably, the Penguins need them to win their minutes on a more consistent basis.
Rickard Rakell has been excellent, providing tangible value on both sides of the puck at even strength. He’s projected for 52 points this season, a total that would be the third best of his 12-year career. His resurgence playing alongside Crosby has helped the Penguins find their footing over the last fortnight.
Meanwhile, Bryan Rust‘s production has dropped by 25%, and his defensive numbers have him as the worst defensive forward in the NHL this season. Drew O’Connor is struggling to produce offense, and is bottom-five in even-strength defensive value.
The team has an heir of nonchalance in their play, with careless turnovers, not finishing checks and fly-bys prevalent in all three zones. That can come with losing, but those are not habits that lead to winning. Even when the Penguins win, it is never comfortable. The Calgary Flames scored two quick goals in the third period this past Saturday, and you could feel the tension in the building. On Tuesday, the Penguins coughed up a 4-1 lead in the third period and needed an OT winner from Rust to take two points.
They are starting to win games, albeit in an unsustainable manner, and rank seventh by points percentage in the Metropolitan Division.
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Bryan Rust wins it for the Pens in OT with a wrister
Bryan Rust glides toward the net and scores on a wrister to give the Penguins an overtime win over the Panthers.
THE BIGGEST ISSUE is that every player mentioned except for O’Connor — who is better suited for a bottom-six role — is above the age of 30. The Penguins are old in NHL terms, relying on their legends to prop them up, and Father Time is catching up. On Saturday, the Penguins dressed only two players aged 25 or younger. Teams that have sustained success do so because they are able to inject young players in the lineup to complement veterans and continue the cycle.
The Boston Bruins added David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy to their core of Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and Zdeno Chara. There doesn’t appear to be a Pastrnak-level player available to the Penguins, unless they pick in the top 10 of the upcoming draft.
Owen Pickering has taken a step forward this season, and has shown signs he can become a quality top-four defenseman. Joel Blomqvist seems to be developing into an NHL starter. The acquisitions of Phil Tomasino and Cody Glass were good ones, and signal that GM Kyle Dubas is employing a different approach than a typical rebuild.
Crosby, Malkin, Letang and Karlsson are too good for the team to bottom out but aren’t good enough to carry a team on their own. Surrounding them with young NHL players who bring speed, skill and tenacity increases the potential of success. It is much more complex than a tear-down and rebuild, but Dubas has made a few shrewd moves to begin the process.
Should the Penguins have interest in continuing that path, there are two player archetypes to target in the trade market: the young player needing a change of scenery because he’s buried or not getting the opportunity in his current organization (as applies to Tomasino) or an AHL prospect that is on the cusp of making the NHL, who the Penguins believe could play sooner than with his current team (McGroarty).
More importantly, given the makeup of the Penguins’ lineup, contending teams will likely have interest in their veterans that need to be moved out as part of this process:
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Anthony Beauvillier is providing value on both sides of the puck, and could prove to be a savvy acquisition for a playoff-bound team.
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O’Connor has proven to be a versatile player capable of providing depth for a playoff team.
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Noel Acciari and Blake Lizotte each have a year remaining on their contracts at reasonable numbers for fourth-line players that bring physicality and defensive value to a contending team.
Each of those players could likely return a mid-round pick or young player that has fallen out of favor. Tomasino was acquired for a fourth-round pick, and given the price for depth players at trade deadline, Dubas offloading players for picks (Lars Eller), and flipping those picks for players like Tomasino is tidy business.
Marcus Pettersson is generating interest from Vancouver, and should have other suitors as a pending free agent currently in a top-pairing role. Vancouver could have interest in Lizotte and/or Acciari, given the need to improve the bottom-six. Nils Hoglander is a player Pittsburgh has interest in, and fits the mold of a young player fallen out of favor with his current club who would benefit from a change of scenery.
While it would surely be more than Hoglander heading back to Pittsburgh for Pettersson, perhaps Pittsburgh would have interest in Sawyer Mynio, Nils Aman or Danila Klimovich. Hoglander’s value has tanked given his lack of ice time and production this season, and the Penguins should expect to get more than five-point player averaging under 12 minutes per game for a defenseman who’s performed admirably in a top-pairing role this season.
The price for defensemen at trade deadline is outrageous. Bottom-pairing blueliners such as Joel Edmundson, Ilya Lyubushkin, Chad Ruhwedel, Andrew Peeke, Colin Miller and Erik Johnson all returned picks in the third or fourth rounds. Pettersson is going to be one of the best defensemen available at the deadline, allowing Pittsburgh to command a hefty price for the pending free agent.
THERE ARE A FEW players who fit the pattern of players the Penguins would like to add, with Glass, Tomasino and McGroarty already acquired. Hoglander, as noted, seems to make the most sense. The Toronto Maple Leafs have their sights set on a deep playoff run and may be willing to part with Nick Robertson for a player they believe can help them win. Nashville’s Luke Evangelista and Montreal’s Jayden Struble or Justin Barron also come to mind as players who may benefit from a change of scenery.
Each of those players is 23 or younger, and has demonstrated potential to play a bigger role than their current situation.
Then, there is Trevor Zegras. The former cover athlete of NHL23, Zegras seems to have fallen out of favor in Anaheim after a contractual dispute that delayed the start of his 2023-24 season. Zegras played only 31 games last season, a disappointing outcome both for the 22-year-old and the Ducks. His overall value has steadily declined since the contract dispute; he’s projected for just 38 points this season.
Originally viewed as a top-six, playmaking center with dazzling skill, Zegras now finds himself on the wing. Anaheim has quite the cupboard of impressive young players up front (Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish, Cutter Gauthier, Beckett Sennecke) and a change of scenery for Zegras may help him find the point-per-game pace of which he’s capable. He’s exactly the type of player that Pittsburgh should covet: A player with sky-high potential and proven ability to play top-six minutes in the NHL. Complicating matters, Zegras sustained a lower-body injury on Wednesday, so a trade may have to wait until the offseason.
The Ottawa Senators are a curious case. It seems that a core piece may be on the move, whether that’s now or in the offseason. Could one of Josh Norris or Shane Pinto be a fit for Pittsburgh down the middle? Jacob Bernard-Docker is getting squeezed on the blue line, and could step in on Pittsburgh’s right side. Again, if the Senators are looking to make a move.
The Dallas Stars are a contender, and will be without Tyler Seguin for the remainder of the season. Given the significant LTIR space that opens, could a much larger trade materialize allowing the Penguins to land one of Logan Stankoven, Mavrik Bourque or Thomas Harley? If the Stars want to add a major player, the Penguins may be the perfect trade partner.
To be clear: Pittsburgh will not trade any of its franchise legends without being asked by that player to do so. They must do right by them, and Dubas has a track record of doing so. They will surely be interest if Crosby or Malkin want out and Pittsburgh will have an opportunity to recoup significant assets for them. That day has not arrived yet, but Dallas is a team to watch if it does.
Regardless of which players the Penguins acquire, none of it will matter if the organization doesn’t buy in from top to bottom. The young players need long runs in offensive roles to build confidence, learn from their mistakes and develop. Tomasino and Glass need to play in key situations, on special teams and develop into all-around players. Pickering should get an increased role if Pettersson is moved. When other young players are acquired, they need the same opportunity.
A tear-down and rebuild from the bottom is much easier than navigating the task that Kyle Dubas and his staff have here now. Skill does not evaporate into thin air, and if young players can rejuvenate the lineup at reduced cap hits, perhaps the Penguins will be competitive sooner rather than later.
The 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs have begun with 16 teams looking to be the last one standing after four grueling rounds of playoff hockey action. The Florida Panthers return to defend their championship, but will have to contend with regular-season powerhouses including the Winnipeg Jets, Washington Capitals and the Edmonton Oilers.
The Panthers first have to contend with their cross-state rival Tampa Bay Lightning, but got off to a strong start in Game 1 with 6-2 road win. The victory saw the Panthers leapfrog several teams to be given the second-shortest odds behind only the Carolina Hurricanes, who have emerged as the Eastern Conference favorites thanks to a 2-0 series lead over the banged-up New Jersey Devils.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, looking to snap the longest championship drought in NHL history, are up 2-0 on their provincial rivals, the Ottawa Senators, and are now among the top five favorites. The Capitals took care of business in Game 1 against the Montreal Canadiens with Alex Ovechkin scoring his first career playoff OT winner and followed it up with a Game 2 victory to take a commanding series lead.
In the West, two of the favorites clash in the first round as the Dallas Stars take on the Colorado Avalanche with the teams trading wins in Games 1 and 2, followed by a Game 3 road win by the Stars which saw the teams essentially trade places in the odds race. The Jets have a 2-0 series lead on the St. Louis Blues, while the Vegas Golden Knights and Minnesota Wild traded wins in Games 1 and 2. The Oilers lost both their road games to the Los Angeles Kings, who are considered the favorite in this series, and must now win at home to get back into the race.
Last year’s Conn Smythe Trophy winner, Connor McDavid, won the top award for playoffs MVP despite his team not winning the championship. This year, he hopes to win it again, but on a happier note. Below, you can see all of the top favorites for Conn Smythe, as well as the odds for every team to win their opening-round series, advance to, and to win the Stanley Cup.
All odds accurate as of publish time. For more, go to ESPN BET. 
Odds to win Conn Smythe trophy
The Conn Smythe is awarded to the player deemed to have been the most valuable to his team throughout the playoffs. Players listed with 200-1 odds or better. More odds available at ESPN BET..
Connor Hellebuyck, Jets: 12-1
Sebastian Aho, Hurricanes: 15-1
Jack Eichel, Golden Knights: 16-1
Anthony Stolarz, Maple Leafs: 18-1
Nathan MacKinnon, Avalanche: 18-1
Aleksander Barkov, Panthers: 20-1
Alex Ovechkin, Capitals: 20-1
Auston Matthews, Maple Leafs: 20-1
Matthew Tkachuk, Panthers: 20-1
Seth Jarvis, Hurricanes: 20-1
Adrian Kempe, Kings: 25-1
Cale Makar, Avalanche: 25-1
Darcy Kuemper, Kings: 25-1
Frederik Andersen, Hurricanes: 25-1
Jake Oettinger, Stars: 25-1
Mitch Marner, Maple Leafs: 25-1
Nikita Kucherov, Lightning: 25-1
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Lightning: 30-1
Connor McDavid, Oilers: 30-1
Kyle Connor, Jets: 30-1
Logan Thompson, Capitals: 30-1
Mark Scheifele, Jets: 30-1
Sam Reinhart, Panthers: 30-1
Sergei Bobrovsky, Panthers: 30-1
Tomas Hertl, Golden Knights: 30-1
Anze Kopitar, Kings: 40-1
Leon Draisaitl, Oilers: 40-1
Logan Stankoven, Hurricanes: 40-1
Adin Hill, Golden Knights: 50-1
Brayden Point, Lightning: 50-1
Dylan Strome, Capitals: 50-1
Kevin Fiala, Kings: 50-1
Kirill Kaprizov, Wild: 50-1
Mackenzie Blackwood, Avalanche: 50-1
Mark Stone, Golden Knights: 50-1
William Nylander, Maple Leafs: 50-1
John Tavares, Maple Leafs: 60-1
Andrei Svechnikov, Hurricanes: 75-1
Jaccob Slavin, Hurricanes: 75-1
Matt Boldy, Wild: 75-1
Mikko Rantanen, Stars: 75-1
Pavel Dorofeyev, Golden Knights: 75-1
Roope Hintz, Stars: 75-1
Wyatt Johnston, Stars: 75-1
Brady Tkachuk, Senators: 100-1
Connor McMichael, Capitals: 100-1
Filip Gustavsson, Wild: 100-1
Jason Robertson, Stars: 100-1
Linus Ullmark, Senators: 100-1
Miro Heiskanen, Stars: 100-1
Nico Hischier, Devils: 100-1
Pyotr Kochetkov, Hurricanes: 100-1
Quinton Byfield, Kings: 100-1
Sam Bennett, Panthers: 100-1
Tim Stutzle, Senators: 100-1
Brandon Hagel, Lightning: 150-1
Jacob Markstrom, Devils: 150-1
Jake Guentzel, Lightning: 150-1
Jordan Binnington, Blues: 150-1
Joseph Woll, Maple Leafs: 150-1
Martin Necas, Avalanche: 150-1
Matt Duchene, Stars: 150-1
Pierre-Luc Dubois, Capitals: 150-1
Shea Theodore, Golden Knights: 150-1
Thomas Harley, Stars: 150-1
Tom Wilson, Capitals: 150-1
Valeri Nichushkin, Avalanche: 150-1
Victor Hedman, Lightning: 150-1
Aliaksei Protas, Capitals: 200-1
The 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs have already included some twists and turns, including long-injured players returning to the ice and others playing through various ailments.
Two teams carry 2-0 leads into Game 3 on Thursday, and history is on their side: according to ESPN Research, teams with a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series have gone on to win 86% of the time.
Will that be the case for the Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets? Or can the Ottawa Senators and St. Louis Blues notch victories at home?
Plus, will the Florida Panthers win another game in the Tampa Bay Lightning‘s barn? And which team will win a pivotal Game 3 of the Vegas Golden Knights–Minnesota Wild series?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, recaps of what went down in Wednesday’s games, and the Three Stars of Wednesday Night from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning
Game 2 (FLA leads 1-0) | 6:30 p.m. ET | TBS
With the Panthers up 1-0, ESPN BET has adjusted the series line to install Florida as the series favorite at -210, whereas the line was -115 before Game 1.
Matthew Tkachuk made his return after more than two months on the shelf, and scored two goals to help the Panthers take Game 1 in the Battle of Florida. Matthew and brother Brady both scored goals Tuesday, which was the 83rd time in Stanley Cup playoffs history that a pair of brothers scored on the same day, the most recent being Marcus and Nick Foligno on April 21, 2023.
Sergei Bobrovsky has backstopped the Cats to many playoff wins recently, and the Game 1 win was his 45th, putting him fifth all-time in playoff wins for goalies born outside North America. The leader? His opponent Andrei Vasilevskiy, with 66.
Nikita Kucherov won the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s leading point-scorer in the regular season, but was limited to just one assist in Game 1. Will that trend continue?
Toronto Maple Leafs at Ottawa Senators
Game 3 (TOR leads 2-0) | 7 p.m. ET | ESPN2
The Maple Leafs have won just one playoff series in the past 20 years, but they are halfway to doing so here in the Battle of Ontario. Oh, and speaking of decadeslong droughts, this is the first time the Leafs have held a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series since the 2002 series against the New York Islanders (which they won in seven games).
Max Domi was the overtime hero for the Leafs in Game 2, which was his first playoff OT goal. His father Tie played 98 playoff games in his NHL career, and never had one — albeit in a career where he was known more as a pugilist than a scorer.
Toronto’s Core Four continue to drive the train. John Tavares (two goals, two assists), Mitch Marner (one goal, three assists), William Nylander (one goal, two assists) and Auston Matthews (three assists) are in the top four positions on their stats sheet heading into Game 3. They’ve also gotten strong play from goaltender Anthony Stolarz, who became the sixth netminder in Leafs history to win his first two playoff games with the franchise — Ken Wregget, Mike Palmateer, Bernie Parent, Frank McCool and Lorne Chabot are the others.
One pathway to a comeback for Ottawa is for goaltender Linus Ullmark to steal a game or two. The 2023 Vezina Trophy winner has allowed nine goals on 45 shots through two games, a save percentage of .800. Ullmark allowed just two goals on 50 shots in two games against Toronto in the regular season, both of which were wins for Ottawa.
Vegas Golden Knights at Minnesota Wild
Game 3 (series tied 1-1) | 9 p.m. ET | TBS
Why is this game so important? The winner of Game 3 in a series tied 1-1 has gone on to win 66% of the time in Stanley Cup playoff history (240-123).
The Wild didn’t want to take any chances in Game 2, scoring three first-period goals and keeping the Knights at arm’s length for the remainder of the game. Kirill Kaprizov reminded everyone why he was a Hart Trophy favorite before getting injured this season, scoring two goals and adding a ridiculous assist on Matt Boldy‘s goal. Kaprizov’s second goal tied him with Marian Gaborik for the second-most playoff goals in Wild history, with 12, four behind Zach Parise.
On the Vegas side, “Playoff” Tomas Hertl has shown up, scoring a goal in each of the first two games. The longtime San Jose Shark is the fourth different player to score a goal in his first two games with the Golden Knights, a list that includes Mark Stone, William Karlsson and Jonathan Marchessault.
The Knights are also hoping this is just a bump in the road for goaltender Adin Hill. He has an .833 save percentage through two games; that figure was .931 in three games last postseason and .932 in 14 starts during their Stanley Cup run in 2023.
Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues
Game 3 (WPG leads 2-0) | 9:30 p.m. ET | ESPN2
One other bit of history working against the Blues: Presidents’ Trophy winners that have won Games 1 and 2 of a best-of-seven series have gone on to win that series 95% of the time (tracked since 1985-86).
The Blues will want to track Kyle Connor closely if the game hangs in the balance. He has scored the game-winning goal in both games thus far, giving him five in his career, passing Paul Stastny for the most in Jets 2.0/Atlanta Thrashers history.
St. Louis rookie Jimmy Snuggerud — who was playing for the University of Minnesota earlier this spring — became the second rookie to notch a goal this postseason, joining Carolina’s Logan Stankoven.
Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou — who led the Blues in regular-season scoring and both tallied goals in Game 1 — were held pointless in Game 2.
Arda’s three stars from Wednesday night
Sometimes the stat lines don’t matter. The Avs captain returning to the NHL for the first time since lifting the Cup in 2022 is a moment that transcends one team, and is celebrated throughout the hockey world. Welcome back, Gabe!
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Gabriel Landeskog makes triumphant return to Avs after 3-year absence
Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog makes his return for the Avalanche after nearly three years on the sidelines due to a chronic knee injury.
Kempe scored two goals and added two assists as the Kings dismantled the Oilers 6-2 to take both games at home as the series now shifts to Edmonton.
Thompson made 25 saves, including some key stops on dangerous chances in the third period, to help the Caps beat the Habs 3-1 and take a 2-0 series lead.
0:48
Messier: Logan Thompson won the game for the Caps
Mark Messier tells Scott Van Pelt the critical role Logan Thompson played for the Capitials in their 3-1 win over the Canadiens in Game 2.
Wednesday’s scores
Washington Capitals 3, Montreal Canadiens 1
(WSH leads 2-0)
Another game that was perhaps a bit closer than the pundits (and the fans in D.C.) expected. Montreal’s Christian Dvorak opened the scoring in the second period, before the Caps answered with two goals in a one-minute span from Connor McMichael and Dylan Strome. That lead would hold despite the Habs’ best efforts, thanks to some heroic saves from Logan Thompson. McMichael added an empty-netter just before the final buzzer to ensure that the fans went home happy, and that his team takes a 2-0 lead to Montreal for Game 3.
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Capitals take lead over Canadiens on back-to-back goals
Connor McMichael and Dylan Strome score a minute apart to put the Capitals ahead of the Canadiens in the second period.
Dallas Stars 2, Colorado Avalanche 1 (OT)
(DAL leads 2-1)
The big story here was the return of Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog after three years. And a first-period goal from Valeri Nichushkin sent the crowd into a frenzy. But the Stars have veteran players of their own, and captain Jamie Benn tied the game midway through the third period, before Tyler Seguin tallied the game-winning goal at 5:31 of overtime.
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Tyler Seguin breaks Avs’ hearts with OT winner for Stars
Tyler Seguin spoils Gabriel Landeskog’s return with a goal to claim the Stars’ second overtime win as they take a 2-1 series lead vs. the Avalanche.
Los Angeles Kings 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
(LA leads 2-0)
For the past three postseasons, the Kings have been eliminated in the first round by the Oilers. Is this finally the year they get past their tormentors from Alberta? Continuing to score six goals per game would certainly help. Brandt Clarke got the party started with a power-play goal at 8:44 of the first period, and he was joined on the scoresheet by Quinton Byfield, Andrei Kuzmenko, Adrian Kempe (with two) and Anze Kopitar. The Kings’ power play has been electric in this series, as L.A. has scored five goals on 10 opportunities with the man advantage.
0:42
Adrian Kempe scores again as Kings close in on victory
Adrian Kempe’s second goal of the night makes it 6-2 Kings as they take full control of Game 2 against the Oilers.
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