The electric shock behind Europe’s stuttering EV future – and how China has leapfrogged major car-exporting nations

Published

3 weeks ago

December 6, 2024

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Across Europe, car companies are cutting jobs and shutting factories – to the extent that some question their very existence. So it’s worth asking the question: what’s gone wrong with Europe (and for that matter America’s) car industry?

While some will reach for their own pet conclusions (Brexit! Electric vehicle deadlines! Government regulations!) in practice there’s something bigger, deeper and less parochial going on here. As the world shifts from petrol and diesel cars to their electric counterparts, a seismic shift is taking place in the global motor industry.

It is a shift which threatens to cause even more pain and disruption at carmakers in developed economies. And given most of these countries’ high-skilled and highly-paid manufacturing jobs are to be found in or around the car-making sector, this is no trivial matter.

Look at a chart of global car exports and you see a very striking sight indeed.

The lines for the traditional car-making countries – Japan, Germany, South Korea – are more or less flat, save for the period around the pandemic. But now look at the line for China. This country which, only a few years ago, was one of the minnows of the global car trade with barely 250,000 car exports each year, has suddenly launched into the stratosphere. In the space of barely two years, it has leapfrogged all the other major car-exporting nations to become the world’s biggest car exporter – in terms of the sheer number of cars.

This arresting chart might give you the impression that Chinese dominance is a very recent thing – a sudden and unexpected spurt. Except that that’s somewhat misleading, because this shift has been a long time coming. To see why, it helps (strange as this will sound) to ponder the innards of a typical car.

A conventional petrol or diesel car is an assembly of lots of different components. There’s the radiator, the exhaust pipe, the wheels and the brakes, but most of all, there is the engine. An internal combustion engine is – even in 2024 – an extraordinary piece of machinery. We take these things for granted (and, given their carbon emissions, some sneer at them). But the ability to take fuel and explode it in a controlled way that turns wheels remains a great mechanical achievement.

To be able to make these engines – contraptions of many different parts, each of which undergoes enormous stresses – at a low cost and in a way that ensures their long-term reliability is all the more impressing an achievement.

Indeed, making reliable engines was such an enormous industrial challenge that it defied China for most of the past century. Part of the reason Chinese car exports were so low for so long was because China struggled to make decent engines.

So it won’t surprise you to learn that the engine is comfortably the most expensive component in a typical car – accounting for more than a fifth of the total value of a car. Much of Britain and Europe’s car industry is focused on this 21% of the car value – because that’s where our expertise has been built up over decades.

Taking bits of steel and combining them into this complex contraption is part of the industrial story of Europe (and America). Millions of people are employed across Europe working either at carmakers or their suppliers making these engines. This is where some of the best-paid, highest-skilled manufacturing jobs are to be found, even today in 2024.

But here’s the critical thing. In an electric car there is no engine. Instead, the vast majority of the value lies in something else: the battery.

Making a battery is very, very different to making an engine. It’s chemical engineering – not mechanical engineering. The skills built up by European carmakers over decades are simply not directly transferrable. Even if Europe was the only continent in the world making cars, it would still be an almighty challenge to shift from one industrial model to a very different one, without having a rollercoaster ride along the way.

But Europe’s problem (and America’s and South Korea and Japan’s too) is that it’s not alone in making cars. China, which struggled to compete on those car engines decades ago, has been investing in electric carmaking for some time.

In doing so, it has been helped by subsidies far more generous than those their Western competitors tend to receive (nearly all carmakers get subsidies – one way or another). Beijing has long been determined both to dominate this next phase of car production and reduce its reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports – both of which point towards mass electrification of road transport.

And those subsidies – alongside cheap energy costs helped by China’s relaxed attitude towards coal-fired power – are one part of the explanation for why China has been able to produce cars with far cheaper costs than their Western competitors. Analysts from Swiss bank UBS recently tried to break down the costs of a German-produced VW ID3 compared with the component costs of a Chinese car, the BYD Seal.

They found that the BYD was cheaper to produce – not just overall, but for every single component part. And since it was far cheaper to produce, that meant it could be sold at far cheaper rates.

Some of that is explained by state aid but, even more so, it’s a consequence of something else. China’s interest in batteries is not a recent trend. It has been investing in their production for many, many years. It has been attempting to dominate not just the production of cells but also of the cathodes and anodes that go inside them – not to mention the chemicals used to make those electrodes. It has been firming up the entire supply chain – all the way down to the mines. And while you can find only so much lithium and cobalt in China, Chinese firms have been buying up mines in Africa and elsewhere for years.

The upshot is that China is the dominant country not just in the production of EVs and the cells inside them but in nearly every component that goes inside those cells. If you want to make a battery today you will be hard pressed not to use at least some Chinese technology or products. It’s that dominant.

The late business writer Clay Christensen coined the term “disruptive innovation” to describe moments like this. When a new technology comes along that completely changes the industrial structure in a sector, it’s incredibly difficult for the incumbent businesses to respond and adapt. They simply aren’t set up for it. Think about how digital photography displaced traditional film, or how smartphones have displaced traditional computers.

What makes this moment so tricky for European carmakers is that they are trying to compete with a disruptive innovation which has been supercharged by Chinese industrial strategy. The upshot is that China is so far ahead on battery production – particularly of low-cost batteries – that it’s hard to see how Europe and America – and, to some extent, South Korea and Japan, can catch up.

All of which is why so many countries are reaching for the most drastic of all economic remedies: large, expensive tariffs on imports of Chinese EVs. The US and Canada have imposed 100% tariffs, India is following suit with similar rates. Europe has introduced a sliding range of extra tariffs. Japan has yet to do so, but is protected to some extent by the fact that their consumers habitually typically buy Japanese.

The main outlier here is the UK. This country has not yet imposed any extra tariffs on Chinese imports. The upshot is that this is one of the most attractive places in the world for Chinese producers to market their cars right now – and one of the cheapest places to buy a Chinese car. But that has profound consequences for domestic car producers.

With energy costs having risen so much, it is getting harder, rather than easier, to compete with Chinese production domestically. It raises profound questions about the ability of this country’s car industry to survive or compete.

The logic of these transitions is that they often move in slow motion but become quite self-fulfilling. Britain and Europe had opportunities to invest in batteries in years gone by; they have been spectacularly slow-moving in setting up new supply chains. But the cards were always stacked against them. The coming years will probably get tougher, as the 2035 EV deadline approaches, pushing consumers towards a market which is becoming ever more dominated by one country.

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Welsh visitor tax plans spark anger in local tourism industry: ‘We’ll be clobbered by it’

Published

1 day ago

December 25, 2024

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Welsh visitor tax plans spark anger in local tourism industry: 'We'll be clobbered by it'

The rugged mountains, limestone caves and spectacular waterfalls of Bannau Brycheiniog – the Brecon Beacons – attract visitors from all over the world.

Tourism is a vital part of the local economy. But local attractions say the industry would be devastated by the Welsh government’s plans for a nightly visitor tax.

“In an area like this all we’ve got is tourism and farming – there is nothing else,” says Ashford Price from the National Showcaves Centre, a visitor complex of cathedral sized caverns, winding tunnels, a dry ski slope, shire horse centre, self-catering accommodation and campsite.

“If they go on like this the future for Welsh tourism is really, really bleak. It will be an absolute catastrophe.”

The proposed fee would be £1.25 for those staying at hotels, bed and breakfasts and self-catering accommodation – and 75p for campsites, caravan sites, and hostels.

Ashford is secretary of the Welsh Association of Visitor Attractions. In protest against the plans, its more than one hundred members closed their attractions for a day.

“Even Welsh people who live in Wales will be clobbered by this tourism tax,” he said.

“It’s quite high, there’s no reduction for children. For a family that will add roughly £35, £40 a week. If you’re staying two weeks, as many people do, it’s £70 on top of your bill. At a time when everybody’s earnings are really struggling, it’s utter insanity to put Wales at such a disadvantage.

“There will be no more big developments. We already cancelled a development for £1.5m and I know other attractions are doing the same. I don’t think the Welsh government really understands how demoralised people feel.”

‘It’s a disaster’

In the nearby village, Anthony Christopher, landlord of the Penycae Inn, is deeply frustrated.

“I just feel like calling this government a bunch of weasels,” he said.

“We’re a small family business and all these extra taxes are taking away the will to do anything else.

“We have national insurance already – contributions are very high. VAT is very high. Now this tax is coming – it’s a disaster. We have to put this extra charge on the customers – how much more can we put on the customers? It’s terrible.”

Anthony has just converted an old school building into a 14-bedroom hotel – due to open in January.

“If I knew this was going to happen I may not have built my hotel. It’s very worrying.”

Many areas in Wales have struggled with the impact of tourism in recent years, with complaints about overflowing car parks, traffic jams, litter and even human faeces on Mount Snowdon.

The Welsh government argues giving councils the power to charge a tourism tax would help pay for better local services.

“During a period of sustained austerity of the sort we’ve seen over the last 14 years, local authorities inevitably end up focusing their spend on those things for which they’ve got statutory obligations – social care, education and so on,” said Finance Secretary Mark Drakeford.

“That has meant there’s been a reduction in the amount of money available for local authorities to invest in infrastructure that makes them successful places for tourists to visit. This is a way of collecting a very small contribution from every one of us who makes a visit to be reinvested in the conditions that make for that visit to be a success.

“It’s money that would be reinvested in the tourism industry, for example, clean beaches and safe footpaths and car parks and public toilets.”

‘People simply absorb it’

The tourism industry accounts for 11% of all jobs in Wales. But an impact assessment commissioned by the Welsh government predicted that in a worst case scenario, 730 jobs could be lost in the sector if a visitor tax was introduced across the country, with an economic cost of £47.5 million. It also predicted 340 local authority jobs would be created.

Mr Drakeford insists the tax will boost tourism – not damage it.

“For those who have fears that the very modest visitor levy will put visitors off, the experience of around the world is that simply isn’t the case. There is a great deal now of empirical evidence for many places that have introduced visitor levies of this sort, not just abroad, but in Manchester, for example,” he said.

“The evidence is not just from big places like Venice, but from rural France, where there’s a levy of this sort. People simply absorb it as part of the costs of their holiday.”

Tourism taxes in cities across Europe range from around 50p to £5 a night, although businesses generally benefit from lower rates of VAT than the 20% paid in the UK.

The idea is becoming increasingly popular across the UK.

The Scottish Parliament voted through similar legislation to that proposed for Wales in July, with Edinburgh set to become the first council to start charging visitors a tourist tax of 5%.

While some regional mayors like Andy Burnham have been calling for equivalent powers to be introduced in England, the Westminster government has no plans to do so.

But local areas can work around this through businesses coming together to set up their own schemes. Manchester’s £1 a night charge raised £2.8m in its first year and hoteliers in Liverpool are about to vote on a similar idea.

Other cities, including York and London, are also considering the option – though a plan for Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole has been put on hold after objections from hotel owners about the ballot held there.

Despite the backlash from local businesses, the Senedd are due to vote on the legislation in the summer.

If passed, councils will then consult with local people on whether to take up their new powers. Tourists could then start being charged in 2027.

Business

Oxford herbicide spinout Moa seeds $40m funding round

Published

2 days ago

December 24, 2024

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Oxford herbicide spinout Moa seeds m funding round

An Oxford University spinout which is developing a new generation of weed-resistant herbicides has begun planting a $40m (£32m) fundraising with prospective backers.

Sky News understands that Moa Technology, which was co-founded by the world-leading university’s head of plant sciences Professor Liam Dolan, is kicking off a Series C funding round.

Moa has already raised $59m (£47m) from prominent investors including Oxford Science Enterprises (OSE), BGF and Lansdowne Partners, the Mayfair-based hedge fund.

Its existing shareholders are understood to be supportive of the new fundraising plans, although potential new investors will also be approached.

Moa is developing active ingredients which can break weeds’ resistance to herbicides – a key challenge for the global agricultural sector – with the aim of securing approval from regulators.

Similar to the growth of antibiotic resistance in humans, resistant ‘superweeds’ are able to kill a farmer’s entire crop, ultimately endangering food security.

Industry data suggests that farmers spend up to $40bn (£31.2bn) annually on herbicides, and a further $25bn (£19.9bn) on weed-resistant seeds.

However, a number of leading weedkillers, including Bayer-owned Roundup, have sparked multibillion dollar lawsuits over their alleged implications for human health.

Moa has developed more than 70 so-called ‘modes of action’, with several of the company’s products in advanced field trials in six countries, including the UK, US and France.

According to Moa, these could, assuming they gain regulatory approval, be commercially available by the end of the decade.

The OSE-backed spinout has a commercial agreement with Nufarm, an Australian agrichemicals company, to further develop one of its products.

A Moa spokesman said it intended to operate a royalties model similar to that of ARM Holdings, the chip designer, in semiconductors, meaning it will focus on research and development, and license its products to global manufacturers and distributors.

The company is run by chief executive Dr Virginia Corless, who has had extensive experience commercialising sustainable solutions in the energy, water and agriculture sectors.

An update on Moa’s fundraising progress is likely in the first half of next year.

Business

Vinted boss says cost of living crisis has ‘boosted’ secondhand industry

Published

2 days ago

December 24, 2024

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Vinted boss says cost of living crisis has 'boosted' secondhand industry

The cost of living crisis has “boosted” the secondhand industry, Sky News has been told, as more than £2bn is spent on pre-loved gifts this Christmas.

Adam Jay, CEO of Vinted Marketplace, said the “trend” in buying pre-loved was “happening anyway” but described rising costs elsewhere as a possible “accelerator”.

“I’m sure the cost of living crisis has been a boost,” he told Sky News, adding that it had supported “the secondhand industry and trading of secondhand”.

“But I do think this trend was happening anyway because of people’s consciousness around overconsumption, around sustainable buying and sustainable consumption.

“I think all of these have I think these are deep trends and I think they’re trends that are here to stay. I really think secondhand can become the first choice ultimately,” he said.

Vinted, an online marketplace for buying and selling pre-owned items, made its first annual net profit last year of €18m (£15m).

The company’s revenue also rose by 61% year on year amid a rise in demand for secondhand goods.

The Vinted boss’s comments come as more than £2bn is expected to have been spent buying pre-loved gifts this Christmas.

A report by Vinted and Retail Economics found that secondhand shopping will account for just over 10% of all gift spending.

More than four in five people also said they might spend some of their budget on pre-loved gifts this year.

Vicky Saynor, from Hertfordshire, has bought all of her Christmas gifts secondhand, with a total budget of £150.

“This year I said, that’s it – it’s only secondhand or they’re not getting anything,” she said.

She has spent £20 on each of her children and believes she will have saved possibly over £1,000.

“We have so much stuff in this world we just don’t need to keep buying more of it. One person’s rubbish is another person gold,” she continued, “I love old things – they have a life, they have a history.

“And secondhand clothing – why not? When I was young I would reuse or pass on and that all changed in the 90s and 00s when it really focused on consumerism. But we have to change our ways – we have to change our habits.”

According to the Vinted report, shoppers are also selling their own belongings to fund Christmas gifts, with 43% selling online.

More are planning to increase how much they buy secondhand too with over a third (35%) expected to buy more in the next five years.

In his interview with Sky News, Vinted’s Adam Jay has also highlighted the “confusion” around new reporting rules on tax in the new year.

Regulations from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) mean that if someone sells above a certain threshold Vinted must ask the seller for their national insurance number and share it with HMRC.

Mr Jay explained, however, that it is “a relatively small proportion of the overall sellers” on the platform and most will “already know” if they have to provide details.

“Vinted is obligated to collect the national insurance number for any seller who sold more than 30 items or more than £1,700 worth of product in the previous 12 months,” he said.

“But here’s the really important thing,” he added, “the obligation to give your national insurance number does not mean there is any obligation to actually pay tax… there is no tax to pay on the private sale of secondhand items.”

He also described the new rules as “a little challenging” for Vinted, as many members already sell at least 30 items.

“Hopefully they’ll [HMRC] rethink whether those thresholds are set in exactly the right way to make sure that ultimately the right people are paying the tax.”

While “supportive” of HMRC decision to change regulations, Mr Jay added: “I wish the thresholds had been set a bit differently. They’re actually set consistently across all OECD countries.

“I would hope even across all of Vinted markets in which we operate, that the tax authorities will consider changing those thresholds or making them more appropriate for business models like Vinted.”