Ducks outlast PSU, ‘take over’ as Big Ten champs
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Adam Rittenberg, ESPN Senior Writer
INDIANAPOLIS — Dan Lanning stood outside Oregon‘s locker room Saturday night, hugging and slapping hands with every player, coach and staff member leaving the confetti-filled field at Lucas Oil Stadium.
When Oregon was preparing for its first season in the Big Ten, Lanning had challenged his team to become the “keystone species,” a new organism that can define its ecosystem. The Ducks were joining a conference that included defending national champion Michigan and historic powers Ohio State and Penn State.
They ended up taking down all three, with Penn State being the final foe to fall Saturday in the Big Ten championship. Led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel and wide receiver Tez Johnson, No. 1 Oregon outlasted No. 3 Penn State 45-37 to secure its first Big Ten title in its first season in the conference.
“It’s just going in a new environment, just kind of messing up that environment, being the alpha in that environment,” tight end Terrance Ferguson said of Lanning’s keystone species theory. “There’s been some alphas in the Big Ten, and we just came in and put our hat on that. All year, that’s been preached to us, and we just put in the work to make it happen.”
The Ducks remained the nation’s only undefeated team at 13-0, tying a single-season team record for victories, and secured a first-round bye in the first 12-team College Football Playoff. They will return to the CFP for the first time since the format launched in 2014, when they lost to Ohio State in the national championship game. Oregon is slotted for the Rose Bowl and will face the winner of the first-round game between the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds.
In late July, Ferguson joined Gabriel, linebacker Jeffrey Bassa and Lanning on the same field at Lucas Oil Stadium for Big Ten media day. The Ducks were one of four West Coast additions to the league, and the one seemingly built to contend right away.
But a new conference brought new obstacles, from travel to opponents to doubts about their legitimacy. Ferguson remembers frequent questions about whether Oregon and other Pac-12 imports could handle the physicality of the Big Ten.
“Everyone sees the West Coast, soft, Pac-12, but I’m glad that we showed everyone that we’re not that,” Ferguson said.
Lanning said, “Motivation is overrated.” But he said he was proud of his team taking the final step in fulfilling the keystone species pledge, which he described as “an opportunity to invade a new environment and somewhere maybe you didn’t belong and … take over that environment.”
Oregon’s Big Ten title win reflected the elements that are most commonly associated with the program, namely speed and explosiveness on offense. Johnson won championship game MVP honors after recording 11 receptions for 181 yards and a touchdown, while Gabriel had four touchdown passes and no interceptions in his final performance before Heisman Trophy voting concludes.
Johnson, a senior wideout, was adopted by the family of former Oregon and current Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix but played Saturday before his biological relatives for the first time.
“I told them, ‘This is the first game y’all coming to, I’ll give y’all a show, I promise you that,'” Johnson said. “I don’t know if words can explain it. My mom, just seeing the tears in her eyes, being able to watch me play on a stage like this. My family had never seen it before. … It’s something you dream about.”
A year earlier, Johnson and his teammates watched their archrival Washington celebrate a Pac-12 championship in Las Vegas. It marked the Huskies’ second win over Oregon in 2023 and one that vaulted them into the CFP. Washington, along with USC and UCLA, struggled in their first season in the Big Ten, as none finished the regular season with a winning record.
Oregon charted a different path, overcoming a shaky start against Idaho and Boise State to outlast Ohio State 32-31 on Oct. 12, then record definitive wins against Illinois, Michigan and others.
“We were meant to be here,” Bassa said. “We’re at the top of the conference and we dominated this conference and we took over the conference.”
Penn State outgained Oregon 518-466 in yardage, but the Ducks led throughout and secured the win on Nikko Reed‘s diving interception at the Oregon 16-yard line with 1:54 left. Oregon twice picked off Penn State quarterback Drew Allar and received key contributions from tight ends Ferguson and Kenyon Sadiq, who hurdled Penn State defender Jalen Kimber for the game’s first touchdown.
“Just ready for their moment, each of them,” Gabriel said. “And I’m proud of them. They just maximized the moment.”
After the win, Oregon players posed on the field with newspaper covers that read “From West to Best.” Gabriel briefly emerged from the locker room holding a cigar and politely asked reporters not to photograph him.
But the celebration wasn’t over the top.
“We’re not done yet,” defensive back Dontae Manning said. “We’re not done yet.”
The Rangers and Ducks are working on a trade to send Chris Kreider to Anaheim, sources confirmed to ESPN on Wednesday.
The deal is in advanced stages and involves the Rangers receiving a prospect and a draft pick, sources said, while the Ducks would take on the final two years of Kreider’s contract, which pays him $6.5 million annually. That would create cap flexibility for the Rangers heading into free agency on July 1.
The deal could be done as soon as Wednesday but requires Kreider to waive his trade protection, sources said. Kreider has a 15-team no trade list and, according to sources, recently added Anaheim to the list. But he could be open to joining a team that features former Rangers in Jacob Trouba and Ryan Strome.
Daily Faceoff was the first to report on the potential of a Kreider-to-Anaheim deal.
Rangers general manager Chris Drury has been looking for ways to shake up his roster after missing the playoffs, continuing a trend that began early in the season when Drury traded team captain Trouba to Anaheim. The Ducks, meanwhile, and general manager Pat Verbeek are looking to take big swings to move forward and make the playoffs for the first time since 2018.
Last month, Anaheim hired three-time Stanley Cup champion Joel Quenneville as its coach. Quenneville is the second-winningest NHL coach of all time.
Kreider, 34, has played his entire 13-year career with the Rangers, who drafted him in the first round in 2009. He is the Rangers’ all-time playoff leader in goals, power-play goals and game-winning goals. Kreider has 326 career goals and 582 points in 883 regular-season games.
He took a step back in production this season, with 22 goals and eight assists in 68 games. The veteran forward, one of the best net-front presences in the NHL, revealed in April that he dealt with several health issues during the season, including back problems and an illness that led to him experiencing vertigo. Kreider also said he battled through a hand injury that he suffered in the first game after the 4 Nations Face-Off, where he competed for Team USA. He said the hand injury may require offseason surgery.
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Rachel Doerrie
The games are done for the top draft prospects; there is no hockey left to be played. A few players in the top 10 played until the last possible moment, making a lasting impression on scouts and executives at the Memorial Cup. With the combine taking place this week in Buffalo, New York, players will undergo physical testing and a rigorous interview process with interested teams. The combine allows teams to ask out-of-the-box questions, get a feel for the personalities of the players and, in some cases, understand the significance of injuries.
There is room for movement on the draft board because combine testing does impact model outputs. Furthermore, this list weighs scouting as 40% of the evaluation. The final ranking, which will be published June 23, will weigh scouting, projection, off-ice assessments and industry intel to varying degrees, which may see some players move up or down.
There are five parts of this set of rankings:
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The rank, which accounts for attributed value based on projection, the confidence of the projection and scouting.
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The NHL projection weighs the projection formula at 70% and scouting at 30%, and represents the most likely outcome for that player. The final edition of the rankings will include the player’s NHL ceiling.
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The NHL floor uses the same formula and represents the worst outcome, above 10% probability of occurring. If a player has a 4% chance of never playing NHL games and an 11% chance of becoming a fourth-line winger or No. 7 defenseman, then those projections will be used for NHL floor. For some players in the draft, the floor is outside of the NHL, perhaps the AHL or KHL.
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Projection confidence is based solely on the projection formula and forms two parts: confidence and volatility. The confidence has four tiers: High, fair, medium and low. This represents that confidence the model has that the player will reach the NHL projection for 200 or more NHL games. The level of confidence impacts the value of the player and, therefore, their rank. High confidence is above 80%, fair is 60% to 79%, medium is 35% to 59% and low is below 35%. The volatility has four categories: Low, slight, medium and high. Volatility relates to the range of outcomes a player has in their career. A player with a low volatility means there is a smaller range of outcomes for the NHL career, whether that is a No. 1 defenseman to top-pair defenseman, or third-line center to bottom-six forward. A player with high volatility has a wide range of outcomes, with relatively even distributions over the NHL projection. It could be related to a number of factors: the league they play in, their scoring if they changed leagues, injuries or a significant uptick/downturn in play. Many of these players are considered “raw” in their development curve.
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Strengths are each player’s standout abilities.
“Boom or bust” is an all-encompassing phrase with confidence and volatility. It means the player either hits their NHL projection or is unlikely to play 200 NHL games. The difference between a low-confidence/high-volatility projection and a boom-or-bust projection is simple: It means injuries played a role in the projection, and the sample size makes it difficult to confidently project the player’s most likely outcome; or that the league in which the player plays does not have a successful history of producing NHL players.
One other consideration is the “Russian factor,” where skilled Russians are more likely to return to Russia if they fail to hit their NHL projection.
Here is how the top 64 prospects line up according to my model:
1. Matthew Schaefer, D, Erie (OHL)
NHL projection: No. 1 defenseman
NHL floor: Top-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Mobility, puck moving, creativity, rush activation
2. Michael Misa, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL projection: Elite No. 1 center
NHL floor: Second-line winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Offensive instincts, explosiveness, transition offense, two-way play
3. James Hagens, F, Boston College (NCAA)
NHL projection: First-line center
NHL floor: Second-line center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Transition play, speed, hockey sense, puck handling
4. Porter Martone, F, Brampton (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-line power forward
NHL floor: Middle-six winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, scoring, hockey sense, size
5. Caleb Desnoyers, F, Moncton (QMJHL)
NHL projection: Top-six, two-way center
NHL floor: Third-line checking center
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, quick hands, playmaking, efficient puck play
6. Anton Frondell, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL projection: Second-line center
NHL floor: Third-line scoring winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Versatility, two-way play, elite release, forechecking
7. Roger McQueen, F, Brandon (WHL)
NHL projection: First-line scoring center
NHL floor: Injury-shortened career
Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, quick release, size
8. Viktor Eklund, F, Djurgardens (Allsvenskan)
NHL projection: Top-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Middle-six scoring forward
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Motor, transition offense, two-way play, off-puck play, hard skill
9. Jake O’Brien, F, Brantford (OHL)
NHL projection: Top-six playmaking center
NHL floor: Middle-six scoring winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, creativity, hockey sense
10. Jackson Smith, D, Tri-City (WHL)
NHL projection: Top-four defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, transition defense, mobility, puck moving
11. Brady Martin, F, Sault Ste. Marie (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six power forward
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Motor, wall play, physicality, hard skill, competitiveness
12. Radim Mrtka, D, Seattle (WHL)
NHL projection: Top-four shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair transition defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Size, stick positioning and use, hockey sense
13. Carter Bear, F, Everett (WHL)
NHL projection: Second-line versatile forward
NHL floor: Third-line checker
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, versatility, two-way play, motor
14. Justin Carbonneau, F, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
NHL projection: Second-line scoring forward
NHL floor: Middle-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Powerful stride, playmaking, puck handling
15. Logan Hensler, D, Wisconsin (NCAA)
NHL projection: Second-pair transition defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Gap control, mobility, transition play
16. Lynden Lakovic, F, Moose Jaw (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, finishing ability, hands, size
17. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, Barrie (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Physicality, competitiveness, aggression, strength
18. Braeden Cootes, F, Seattle (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, speed, anticipation, forechecking
19. Cameron Schmidt, F, Vancouver (WHL)
NHL projection: Second-line scoring winger
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, offensive instincts, finishing ability
20. Cole Reschny, F, Victoria (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, anticipation, quick hands, competitiveness
21. Cameron Reid, D, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL projection: Top-four transition defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defensive defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, transition play, hockey sense
22. Cullen Potter, F, Arizona State (NCAA)
NHL projection: Top-six forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, agility, offensive play driving, elite release
23. Benjamin Kindel, F, Calgary (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, transition, two-way play
24. Malcolm Spence, F, Erie (OHL)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six winger
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, two-way play, tenacity
25. Joshua Ravensbergen, G, Prince George (WHL)
NHL projection: No. 1 starting goaltender
NHL floor: 1B tandem goaltender
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Anticipation, crisp movements, competitiveness, lateral agility
26. Blake Fiddler, D, Edmonton (WHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection confidence: High confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Transition defense, in-zone defensive play, size, mobility
27. Sascha Boumedienne, D, Boston University (NCAA)
NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair offensive specialist
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, stick play, transition play, slap shot
28. Jack Murtagh, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: Third-line power forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line forward
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Motor, shooting, hard skill, straight-line speed
29. Jack Nesbitt, F, Windsor (OHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, competitiveness, two-way play
30. Bill Zonnon, F, Rouyn-Noranda (QMJHL)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: High-end motor, raw playmaking, competitiveness, puck battles
31. William Moore, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: Third-line forward
NHL floor: NHL depth player
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Puck protection, skating, offensive instincts, puck skill
32. Ryker Lee, F, Madison (USHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six playmaker
NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Hockey sense, creativity, puck handling, one-timer
33. Nathan Behm, F, Kamploops (WHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six scoring depth
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, shooting, creativity
34. Milton Gastrin, F, Modo (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, two-way instincts, motor
35. Shane Vansaghi, F, Michigan State (NCAA)
NHL projection: Third-line power forward
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking forward
Projection confidence: High confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, strength, competitiveness, puck skill
36. Jakob Ihs-Wozniak, F, Lulea (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Middle-six scoring forward
NHL floor: Third-line scoring depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Playmaking, finishing ability, offensive instincts
37. Jack Ivankovic, G, Brampton (OHL)
NHL projection: Platoon starting goaltender
NHL floor: High-end NHL backup
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, controlled movements, patience in save selection
38. Henry Brzustewicz, D, London (OHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defender
NHL floor: AHL scoring defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Puck moving, gap control, creativity
39. Cole McKinney, F, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: Third-line, two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line defensive center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, penalty killing, competitiveness, finishing ability
40. Eric Nilson, F, Orebro (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: AHL top-six center
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, forechecking, competitiveness, defensive instincts
41. Vaclav Nestrasil, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL projection: Top-six power forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Size, motor, two-way play, puck skill
42. Benjamin Kevan, F, Des Moines (USHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way winger
NHL floor: Bottom-six speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, transition offense
43. Ivan Ryabkin, F, Muskegon (USHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Quick release, creativity, physicality
44. Daniil Prokhorov, F, St. Petersburg (MHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six power forward
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Size, strength, physicality, heavy shot
45. Carter Amico, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 transition defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Mobility, transition defense, physicality, size
46. Max Psenicka, D, Portland (WHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Instincts, mobility, gap control, puck moving
47. Luca Romano, F, Kitchener (OHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six, two-way center
NHL floor: Bottom-six checking speedster
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Speed, transition play, motor
48. Alexander Zharovsky, F, Ufa (MHL)
NHL projection: Middle-six scoring winger
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Puck handling, instincts, creativity
49. Kurban Limatov, D, Moscow (MHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair, two-way defenseman
NHL floor: KHL player
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Skating, mobility, aggressiveness, physicality
50. Mason West, F, Edina (USHS)
NHL projection: Middle-six physical forward
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical forward
Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Strength, physicality, size, mobility
51. Kristian Epperson, F, Saginaw (OHL)
NHL projection: Third-line scoring winger
NHL floor: AHL top-six forward
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Two-way play, playmaking, hockey sense
52. Matthew Gard, F, Red Deer (WHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical center
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Strength, size, defensive play, motor
53. William Horcoff, F, Michigan (NCAA)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way center
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical presence
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, strength, size, wall play
54. Jacob Rombach, D, Lincoln (USHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair physical defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, puck retrievals, motor
55. Peyton Kettles, D, Swift Current (WHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, low volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, size, physicality
56. Hayden Paupanekis, F, Kelowna (WHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-six defensive center
NHL floor: Fourth-line center
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Competitiveness, size, defensive play
57. David Bedkowski, D, Owen Sound (OHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-pair shutdown defenseman
NHL floor: No. 7 physical defenseman
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, size, strong stick, penalty killing
58. Ethan Czata, F, Niagara (OHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-six checking center
NHL floor: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Penalty killing, physicality, hard skill
59. Haoxi “Simon” Wang, D, Oshawa (OHL)
NHL projection: Second-pair two-way defenseman
NHL floor: AHL player
Projection confidence: Low confidence, high volatility
Strengths: Skating, mobility, size, transition defense
60. Theo Stockselius, F, Djurgardens (J20 Nationell)
NHL projection: Third-line two-way forward
NHL floor: AHL depth
Projection confidence: Low confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Hockey sense, hard skill, playmaking
61. Eddie Genborg, F, Linkoping (SHL)
NHL projection: Bottom-six checking winger
NHL floor: Fourth-line physical winger
Projection confidence: Medium confidence, slight volatility
Strengths: Physicality, two-way play, motor
62. Charlie Trethewey, D, USNTDP (USHL)
NHL projection: No. 4/5 two-way defenseman
NHL floor: Bottom-pair defenseman
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Defensive play, physicality, heavy shot, skating
63. Alexei Medvedev, G, London (OHL)
NHL projection: 1B NHL goaltender
NHL floor: Reliable NHL backup
Projection confidence: Fair confidence, medium volatility
Strengths: Positioning, competitiveness, anticipation, athleticism
64. L.J. Mooney, F, USNTDP (USA)
NHL projection: Middle-six two-way scoring depth
NHL floor: AHL top-six scoring forward
Projection confidence: Boom or bust
Strengths: Speed, puck handling, motor
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