Connect with us

Published

on

The lightning collapse of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria exposes the brittleness of even the most brutal dictatorship when under pressure, but it also creates a security vacuum that carries great risk.

Once the scenes of rebel euphoria subside on the streets, much will rest on the powerful group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which led the charge into Damascus overnight.

Previously linked to al Qaeda, this Sunni Islamist militant faction is viewed as a terrorist organisation by many Western powers, including the UK.

But the movement has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots and instead emphasise a commitment to tolerance of minorities.

Read more: Latest updates from Syria

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

‘New era in Middle East’

Now, having achieved such stunning success over the past few days, its leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani faces the even bigger task of uniting a country that has been divided by civil war for more than 13 years.

The Assad regime, which comes from Syria’s minority Alawite sect of Shia Islam, inflicted terrible violence on its people, in particular during the first years of the uprising that began in 2011 – and including the use of chemical weapons.

Bringing those responsible to justice without resorting to violent retribution will be a key, though hugely difficult, test for whether a transition of power led by HTS can be relatively peaceful.

Even with the best intentions of the HTS leadership, though, Syria has become a breeding ground for Sunni Islamist terrorism – and this threat could grow.

Any security vacuum will be exploited by Islamic State – which formed a caliphate across swathes of Syria and Iraq during the early years of the civil war – and by al Qaeda.

Read more:
Analysis: What comes next is of great concern
Who are the Syrian rebels – and what are their plans?

President Bashar al Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in July 2024. Pic: AP
Image:
Mr Assad and Vladimir Putin in Moscow in July 2024. Pic: AP

Putin must be in crisis mode

Then there is the question of Mr Assad’s foreign backers, primarily Russia and Iran.

Vladimir Putin must surely be in crisis mode following the sudden vanquishing of an ally he had previously successfully propped up when rebel groups first challenged his grip on power.

Russia has two strategic military facilities on Syria’s Mediterranean coast – the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province.

Both will be under threat unless the Kremlin is able to cut some hasty deal with Syria’s emerging powerbrokers – though such a move would surely be near-on impossible given Moscow’s part in supporting the violence carried out previously by Mr Assad’s army.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Syrian rebels storm presidential palace

The dramatic transformation in the reality on the ground will be felt even more starkly by Iran, whose forces have similarly been instrumental in supporting the regime, both through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

Syria has been a key part of an axis of influence cultivated by the IRGC over decades and has been an important site for smuggling weapons to Tehran’s proxy forces across the region.

An image of Syrian President Bashar al Assad riddled with bullets at the provincial government office building in Hama. Pic: AP
Image:
An image of Mr Assad riddled with bullets at the provincial government office building in Hama. Pic: AP

Turkey could emerge as an important ally

Other regional powers will also be rapidly reassessing their approach to Damascus.

Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, will be an interesting nation to watch.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has long strongly opposed Mr Assad and has been an important backer for a number of rebel groupings that helped to oust him.

It means Ankara could well emerge as an important ally to the new Syrian leadership.

Trump may be left with little choice

The United States, which has been supporting a Kurdish rebel group in the northeast of Syria, has been unusually muted during the past week of unprecedented change.

President elect Donald Trump has been clear he does not see a role for Washington in the crisis.

But should the situation descend into escalating bloodshed once again, he may have little choice.

Continue Reading

World

Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau resigns and suspends parliament until March

Published

on

By

Canada's prime minister Justin Trudeau resigns and suspends parliament until March

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation.

The 53-year-old said he will step down as leader of the country’s ruling Liberal Party, which he has led since 2013.

He says it will allow his party to choose a new leader as he suspends parliament until March due to political deadlock.

Chrystia Freeland, who today stepped down as finance minister and deputy prime minister, arrives for a national caucus meeting, in Ottawa, Ontario, Monday, Dec. 16, 2024. (Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP)
Image:
Chrystia Freeland, seen on the day she quit as finance minister and deputy prime minister in December. Pic: Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP

Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation

Speaking to reporters in front of his residence at Rideau Cottage, in the country’s capital, Ottawa, he said “internal battles” mean that he “cannot be the best option” in the next election.

“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well-being of democracy is something that I hold dear.

“A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party will carry its values and ideals into that next election. I am excited to see that process unfold in the months ahead.”

Mr Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, faced calls to quit from a chorus of his MPs amid poor showings in opinion polls.

He came under further pressure after his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned in December over clashes on policy.

The disagreements included how to handle possible US tariffs imposed by Donald Trump‘s incoming administration.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, left, are seen following a family photo of G7 leaders and Outreach partners at the Hotel San Domenico during a G7 summit in Taormina, Italy, Saturday, May 27, 2017. (Jonathan Ernst/Pool photo via AP)
Image:
Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump in Italy in 2017. Pic: AP

Mr Trudeau’s resignation comes as the polls show his party is likely to suffer a heavy defeat to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.

The Liberals must now name an interim leader to take over as prime minister ahead of a special leadership convention.

Mr Trudeau came to power 10 years ago following a decade of Conservative Party rule and was initially praised for returning the country to its liberal past.

But he has become deeply unpopular with voters in recent years over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing and surging immigration.

He is the eldest son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, who led the country from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984.

The political upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Canada internationally.

Read more:
Former golden boy’s popularity in shreds
Zimbabwean migrants heading to South Africa
60m Americans under weather warnings

US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Ottawa does not stem what Mr Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs into the US.

Many fewer of each cross into the US from Canada than from Mexico, which Mr Trump has also threatened.

In a social media post on Christmas Day, Mr Trump even suggested the US could take control of Canada, as well as Greenland and the Panama Canal.

Canada is a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the US, which also relies on its northern neighbour for steel, aluminium and autos.

Continue Reading

World

Justin Trudeau was once Canada’s golden boy – but he steps down with his popularity in shreds

Published

on

By

Justin Trudeau was once Canada's golden boy - but he steps down with his popularity in shreds

Few one-time golden boys manage to retain their lustre long into political office.

Barack Obama just about held on to his, leaving the US presidency with his approval rating high despite his party’s 2016 loss to Donald Trump.

But Emmanuel Macron is faltering in France and Justin Trudeau steps down as head of Canada’s liberal party with his popularity in shreds. So much for Western liberal values.

In the high tides of inflation and immigration, those who were their supposed flag-bearers are no longer what electorates want.

Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation

For Mr Trudeau, it is a dramatic reckoning. His approval ratings have dropped from 65% at their highest in September 2016 to 22% now, according to the “Trudeau Tracker” from Canada’s non-profit Angus Reid Institute.

The sudden departure of his finance minister and key political ally Chrystia Freeland last month dealt his leadership a body blow, just as Canada readies itself for a potential trade war with the US which, she argued in a bracing resignation letter, his government was not taking seriously enough.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

“Parliament has been paralysed for months,” Trudeau says

The man Mr Trump recently trolled as “Governor of the ‘Great State of Canada’ or ’51st (US) state'”, Mr Trudeau was as close to Canadian political royalty as it gets.

The son of the country’s 15th prime minister, Pierre Trudeau, he was famously toasted by US president Richard Nixon as “the future prime minister of Canada” when he joined his father on a state visit as a toddler.

Aged five, he met the late Queen for the first time. “Thank you for making me feel so old”, she remarked drily at a re-meet in Malta almost 40 years later.

He has led Canada’s liberal party since 2013 and served as the country’s 23rd prime minister for almost a decade.

Mr Trudeau won a resounding electoral victory in 2015 and secured the premiership through two subsequent elections, though as head of a minority government.

Mr Trudeau, his wife and children celebrate after he won the Federal Liberal leadership in 2013 in Ottawa. Pic: AP/The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld
Image:
Mr Trudeau, his wife and children celebrate after he won the Federal Liberal leadership in 2013 in Ottawa. Pic: AP/The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld

Read more from Sky News:
Mindy Kaling spills the beans on Meghan’s cooking skills
Calls for more research into flat head syndrome in babies

He made significant inroads against poverty in Canada, worked hard on nation to nation reconciliation with Canada’s indigenous communities, secured an effective trade deal with the US and Mexico in 2016 and managed to keep the public mostly on-side through the COVID-19 pandemic.

But he was a polarising figure. Holidays in exotic climes like a trip to the Bahamas in 2016 to an island belonging to the Aga Khan made him seem elitist and out of touch.

There was embarrassment when blackface images surfaced from his early years as a teacher, for which he apologised profusely.

His supposed liberal credentials smacked of double standards when he invoked emergency powers to crush truckers’ protests in 2022.

But it was the economic aftermath of the pandemic, with Canada suffering an acute housing shortage, immigration leaping under his premiership and the cost of living hitting households across the board which really piled on the pressure.

In those, Canada is not unique. But the opposition conservatives and the public at large clearly want change, and Mr Trudeau has responded.

He has announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister after the Liberals selects their next leader.

Mr Trudeau’s legacy may shine brighter with a little hindsight. But now is not that moment.

The question is whether his conservative opposition will fare any better in an increasingly combative geopolitical environment if, as seems likely, a candidate of their choosing wins a federal election due at some point this year.

Continue Reading

World

As anti-immigration rages, migrants from Zimbabwe jump the border into South Africa with ease

Published

on

By

As anti-immigration rages, migrants from Zimbabwe jump the border into South Africa with ease

Donkey karts loaded with wrapped parcels of unknown goods weave around the large puddles of water left in the dried riverbed.

Young men quickly hop over laid bricks to bridge the puddles followed by women treading carefully with babies on their backs.

The Limpopo River’s seasonal dryness is a natural pathway for those moving into South Africa from Zimbabwe illegally.

A sandy narrow beach undisturbed by border patrols with crossers chatting peacefully under trees on both banks as men furiously load and unload smuggled goods on the roadside.

Against the anti-immigration rage and xenophobia boiling over in South Africa’s urban centres, the tranquillity and ease of the border jumping is astonishingly calm.

Image:
People crossing the dried Limpopo River to get from Zimbabwe to South Africa

“You can’t stop someone who is suffering. They have to find any means to come find food,” one man tells us anonymously as he crosses illegally.

At 55 years old, he remembers the 3,500-volt electric fence called the “snake of fire” installed here by the Apartheid regime.

More on Migrant Crisis

Hundreds of women and children escaping conflict in the late 1980s and early 1990s were electrocuted.

Image:
A woman near the border

Read more
Olive branch for illegal miners in police stand-off
South Africa beauty queen citizenship row

Today, people fleeing drought and economic strife are smuggled across or walking through border blindspots like this one.

“Now, it’s easy,” he says. “There is no border authority here.”

He crosses regularly and always illegally. While he laughs at the lack of border agents, he says he has been stopped by soldiers in the past.

“They send us back but then the next day you try to come back and it is fine.”

Image:
Part of the dilapidated border fence that separates South Africa with Zimbabwe

We find a few soldiers on our way back to the main road. They look confused by our presence but unphased. It is hard to believe they are unaware of the streams of people and goods moving across the dried riverbed just a few hundred metres away.

Border ‘fence’ trampled and full of holes

We drive along the border fence to get to the official border post into Zimbabwe, Beitbridge.

“Fence” is a generous term for the knee-height barbed wire laid across 25 miles of South Africa’s northern edges in 2020. Some sections are completely trampled, and others are gaping with holes.

The concrete fortress is a drastic change to the soft, sandy riverbed. Queues dismantle and reassemble as eager crowds rush from one building to another as instructions change.

Zimbabweans can live, work and study in South Africa on a Zimbabwean exemption permit, but many like Precious, a mother-of-three, cannot even afford a passport.

Image:
Precious, a mother-of-three, staying at a shelter in Musina, South Africa

Image:
Shelters for women and trafficked children in Musina

When we meet her at a women’s shelter in the border town of Musina, she says she only has $30 (£23.90) to find work in South Africa and that a passport costs $50 (£39.80).

“My husband is disabled and can’t work or do anything. I’m the only one doing everything – school, food, everything. I’m the one who has to take care of the kids and that situation makes me come here to find something,” she says tearfully before breaking down.

The shelter next door is home to trafficked children that were rescued. Other shelters are full of men looking for work.

Musina is a stagnant sanctuary for Zimbabweans searching for a better life who become paralysed here – a sign of the declining state of Zimbabwe and the growing hostility deeper in South Africa.

In Johannesburg, South Africa’s economic centre, illegal immigrants are facing raids and deportations organised by the Ministry of Home Affairs at the behest of popular discontent.

The heavy-handed escalation in the interior sits in stark contrast to the lax border control.

Image:
Derelict buildings in Johannesburg where migrants are living

“I wonder how serious our government is about dealing with immigration,” says Nomzamo Zondo, human rights attorney and executive director of the Socio-Economic Rights Institute of South Africa (SERI), as we walk through Johannesburg’s derelict inner city.

“I think part of it is that the South Africa we want to build is one that wants to welcome its neighbours and doesn’t forget the people that welcomed us when we didn’t have a home – and that is why I think they are so poor at maintaining the borders.”

She adds: “But then the call has to be one that says once you are here, how do we make sure you are regularised here, that you know who you are, and contribute to the economy at this point in time.”

Image:
More makeshift migrant accommodation in Johannesburg

Climate of anti-migrant hate

In 1994 as South Africa’s first democratically elected president, Nelson Mandela ordered that all electric fences be taken down.

His dream for South Africa to become a pan-African haven for civilians of neighbouring countries that provided sanctuary for fighters in the anti-Apartheid movement was criticised by local constituents back then.

Image:
Sky correspondent Yousra Elbagir speaks to migrants inside a government van

Now in a climate of increasing anti-migrant hate, that vision is rejected outright.

“I think that is the highest level of sell-out. When South Africans were in exile, they were in camps and they were restricted to go to other parts of those countries,” says Bungani Thusi, a member of anti-immigrant movement Operation Dudula, at a protest in Soweto.

Image:
Anti-immigrant protesters from the group Operation Dudula at a demonstration in Soweto

He is wearing faux military fatigues and has the upright position of an officer heading into battle.

“Why do you allow foreigners to go all over South Africa and run businesses and make girlfriends?” he adds, with all the seriousness of protest.

“South Africans can’t even have their own girlfriends because the foreigners have taken over the girlfriend space.”

Continue Reading

Trending