The fall of Assad in Syria creates a security vacuum – and may give Donald Trump little choice but to play a role
The lightning collapse of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria exposes the brittleness of even the most brutal dictatorship when under pressure, but it also creates a security vacuum that carries great risk.
Once the scenes of rebel euphoria subside on the streets, much will rest on the powerful group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which led the charge into Damascus overnight.
Previously linked to al Qaeda, this Sunni Islamist militant faction is viewed as a terrorist organisation by many Western powers, including the UK.
But the movement has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots and instead emphasise a commitment to tolerance of minorities.
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‘New era in Middle East’
Now, having achieved such stunning success over the past few days, its leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani faces the even bigger task of uniting a country that has been divided by civil war for more than 13 years.
The Assad regime, which comes from Syria’s minority Alawite sect of Shia Islam, inflicted terrible violence on its people, in particular during the first years of the uprising that began in 2011 – and including the use of chemical weapons.
Bringing those responsible to justice without resorting to violent retribution will be a key, though hugely difficult, test for whether a transition of power led by HTS can be relatively peaceful.
Even with the best intentions of the HTS leadership, though, Syria has become a breeding ground for Sunni Islamist terrorism – and this threat could grow.
Any security vacuum will be exploited by Islamic State – which formed a caliphate across swathes of Syria and Iraq during the early years of the civil war – and by al Qaeda.
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Mr Assad and Vladimir Putin in Moscow in July 2024. Pic: AP
Putin must be in crisis mode
Then there is the question of Mr Assad’s foreign backers, primarily Russia and Iran.
Vladimir Putin must surely be in crisis mode following the sudden vanquishing of an ally he had previously successfully propped up when rebel groups first challenged his grip on power.
Russia has two strategic military facilities on Syria’s Mediterranean coast – the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province.
Both will be under threat unless the Kremlin is able to cut some hasty deal with Syria’s emerging powerbrokers – though such a move would surely be near-on impossible given Moscow’s part in supporting the violence carried out previously by Mr Assad’s army.
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Syrian rebels storm presidential palace
The dramatic transformation in the reality on the ground will be felt even more starkly by Iran, whose forces have similarly been instrumental in supporting the regime, both through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
Syria has been a key part of an axis of influence cultivated by the IRGC over decades and has been an important site for smuggling weapons to Tehran’s proxy forces across the region.
An image of Mr Assad riddled with bullets at the provincial government office building in Hama. Pic: AP
Turkey could emerge as an important ally
Other regional powers will also be rapidly reassessing their approach to Damascus.
Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, will be an interesting nation to watch.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has long strongly opposed Mr Assad and has been an important backer for a number of rebel groupings that helped to oust him.
It means Ankara could well emerge as an important ally to the new Syrian leadership.
Trump may be left with little choice
The United States, which has been supporting a Kurdish rebel group in the northeast of Syria, has been unusually muted during the past week of unprecedented change.
President elect Donald Trump has been clear he does not see a role for Washington in the crisis.
But should the situation descend into escalating bloodshed once again, he may have little choice.
The Pope has said he is “deeply saddened” by the deaths of three people in an Israeli strike on the only Catholic church in Gaza.
A further nine people were wounded when the Gaza’s Holy Family Church was hit, the Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem said in a statement.
“On behalf of the entire Church of the Holy Land, we extend our deepest condolences to the bereaved families, and from here, we offer our prayers for the swift and full recovery of the wounded,” the statement reads.
“The Latin Patriarchate strongly condemns this tragedy and this targeting of innocent civilians and of a sacred place.
“However, this tragedy is not greater or more terrible than the many others that have befallen Gaza.”
Parish priest Father Gabriele Romanelli, an Argentinian who used to regularly update the late Pope Francis about the conflict in Gaza, was lightly injured in the attack.
Parish priest of the Church of the Holy Family, father Gabriele Romanelli, receives medical attention.
Pic: Reuters
In a telegram for the victims, Pope Leo said he was “deeply saddened” and called for “an immediate ceasefire”.
The Pope expressed his “profound hope for dialogue, reconciliation and enduring peace in the region,” according to the telegram, which was signed by the Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin.
Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, told the Vatican News website that the church was shelled by a tank.
“What we know for sure is that a tank, the IDF says by mistake, but we are not sure about this, they hit the Church directly, the Church of the Holy Family, the Latin Church”, he said
The church was sheltering both Christians and Muslims, including a number of children with disabilities, according to Fadel Naem, acting director of Al-Ahli Hospital, which received the wounded.
Pope Leo XIV. File pic: Reuters
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it was “aware of reports regarding damage caused to the Holy Family Church in Gaza City and casualties at the scene. The circumstances of the incident are under review”.
“The IDF makes every feasible effort to mitigate harm to civilians and civilian structures, including religious sites,
and regrets any damage caused to them,” the statement added.
Israel’s foreign ministry said in a statement on X that the results of the investigation would be published.
It also said the country did not target churches or religious sites and regretted harm to them or civilians.
The previous pope, Francis, spoke almost daily with Gaza church. In the last 18 months of his life, Francis would often call the church in the Gaza Strip to see how people huddled inside were coping with a devastating war.
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At least 20 more people were killed on Thursday by Israeli attacks across the besieged enclave, medics said.
Throughout the 21-month war, more than 58,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israel’s military campaign, according to Gaza’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.
Israel launched a retaliatory campaign against Hamas following the militant group’s 7 October 2023 attacks, during which 1,200 people were killed and about 250 taken hostage.
World
Syria’s president vows to protect Druze population after Israel airstrikes – as new ceasefire begins
Syria’s president has said protecting the rights of the Druze population is “our priority” after Israel warned it would destroy forces attacking the minority.
In a televised statement early today, Ahmed al Sharaa told the Druze “we reject any attempt to drag you into hands of an external party”.
Several hundred people have reportedly been killed this week in the south of Syria in violence involving local fighters, government authorities and Bedouin tribes.
Following the president’s announcement and a ceasefire agreement, Syrian government forces on Thursday largely withdrew from the volatile southern province of Sweida.
Under the terms of the agreement, Druze factions and clerics have been appointed to maintain internal security.
As the violence escalated in Sweida, Israel launched airstrikes, including attacks on Wednesday on the defence ministry in Damascus and a target near the presidential palace.
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has pledged to “act resolutely against any terrorist threat on its borders”.
The Druze population follow an offshoot of Islam and are estimated to number about one million, spread between Syria, Lebanon and Israel.
Sharaa – Syria’s interim leader after President Assad fled last year – gave a televised statement on Wednesday telling the Druze “we reject any attempt to drag you into hands of an external party”.
“We are not among those who fear the war,” he added.
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Moment Israel strikes Syrian military HQ
“We have spent our lives facing challenges and defending our people, but we have put the interests of the Syrians before chaos and destruction,” said the president.
He also claimed Israel has “consistently targeted our stability and created discord among us since the fall of the former regime”.
Israel has accused the Syrian regime of being barely disguised jihadists – despite warming ties with Western countries such as the UK and US.
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Professor Michael Clarke on Syria situation
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The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said, as of Wednesday morning, more than 300 people had been killed in the flare-up of violence.
Around 1,000 Druze people broke through a fence into southern Syria on Wednesday in a bid to help, according to The Times of Israel.
Prime Minister Netanyahu urged people not to cross into Syria and Israeli military chief of staff Eyal Zamir warned they would not “allow southern Syria to become a terror stronghold”.
The UN Security Council will discuss the situation today, despite the US secretary of state saying yesterday that America had brokered an end to the violence.
“We have engaged all the parties involved in the clashes in Syria,” Marco Rubio said on social media.
“We have agreed on specific steps that will bring this troubling and horrifying situation to an end tonight.”
Syrian soldiers were seen pulling out of Sweida overnight. Pic: Reuters
The intervention appeared to have an immediate effect.
The situation was calm on Thursday morning, according to Reuters sources in the area.
A sex scandal has rocked Thailand’s Buddhist clergy after a woman allegedly enticed a string of monks into having sex with her and then blackmailed them.
At least nine abbots and senior monks have been disrobed and cast out of the monkhood, the Royal Thai Police Central Investigation Bureau said.
Wilawan Emsawat, in her mid-30s, is accused of enticing senior monks into having sex with her and then pressuring them into making large payments to cover it up.
Thai monks are largely members of the Theravada sect, which requires them to be celibate and refrain from even touching a woman.
Several monks transferred large amounts of money after Wilawan initiated romantic relationships with them, police said -her bank accounts received around 385 million baht (£8.8m) in the past three years, with most of that spent on gambling websites.
Wilawan was arrested at her home in Nonthaburi province, north of the capital Bangkok, on charges including extortion, money laundering and receiving stolen goods.
Thai media reported a search of her mobile phones revealed tens of thousands of photos and videos, as well as numerous chat logs indicating intimacy with several monks, many of which could be used for blackmail.
Thailand’s Central Investigation Bureau holding a press conference in Bangkok. Pic: Central Investigation Bureau/AP
An investigation was launched last month after an abbot of a famous temple in Bangkok abruptly left the monkhood.
He had allegedly been blackmailed by Wilawan over their romantic relationship, investigators found.
She told the monk she was pregnant and asked him to pay her 7.2 million baht (£165,000), Jaroonkiat Pankaew, a Central Investigation Bureau deputy commissioner, said at a news conference in Bangkok on Tuesday.
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Acting Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai ordered authorities to review and consider tightening existing laws related to monks and temples, especially the transparency of temple finances, to restore faith in Buddhism, government spokesperson Jirayu Houngsub said on Tuesday.
The Central Investigation Bureau has set up a Facebook page for people to report monks who misbehave, Mr Jaroonkiat said.
“We will investigate monks across the country,” he said. “I believe that the ripple effects of this investigation will lead to a lot of changes.”
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