The fall of Assad in Syria creates a security vacuum – and may give Donald Trump little choice but to play a role
The lightning collapse of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria exposes the brittleness of even the most brutal dictatorship when under pressure, but it also creates a security vacuum that carries great risk.
Once the scenes of rebel euphoria subside on the streets, much will rest on the powerful group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which led the charge into Damascus overnight.
Previously linked to al Qaeda, this Sunni Islamist militant faction is viewed as a terrorist organisation by many Western powers, including the UK.
But the movement has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots and instead emphasise a commitment to tolerance of minorities.
Read more: Latest updates from Syria
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‘New era in Middle East’
Now, having achieved such stunning success over the past few days, its leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani faces the even bigger task of uniting a country that has been divided by civil war for more than 13 years.
The Assad regime, which comes from Syria’s minority Alawite sect of Shia Islam, inflicted terrible violence on its people, in particular during the first years of the uprising that began in 2011 – and including the use of chemical weapons.
Bringing those responsible to justice without resorting to violent retribution will be a key, though hugely difficult, test for whether a transition of power led by HTS can be relatively peaceful.
Even with the best intentions of the HTS leadership, though, Syria has become a breeding ground for Sunni Islamist terrorism – and this threat could grow.
Any security vacuum will be exploited by Islamic State – which formed a caliphate across swathes of Syria and Iraq during the early years of the civil war – and by al Qaeda.
Read more:
Analysis: What comes next is of great concern
Who are the Syrian rebels – and what are their plans?
Mr Assad and Vladimir Putin in Moscow in July 2024. Pic: AP
Putin must be in crisis mode
Then there is the question of Mr Assad’s foreign backers, primarily Russia and Iran.
Vladimir Putin must surely be in crisis mode following the sudden vanquishing of an ally he had previously successfully propped up when rebel groups first challenged his grip on power.
Russia has two strategic military facilities on Syria’s Mediterranean coast – the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province.
Both will be under threat unless the Kremlin is able to cut some hasty deal with Syria’s emerging powerbrokers – though such a move would surely be near-on impossible given Moscow’s part in supporting the violence carried out previously by Mr Assad’s army.
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Syrian rebels storm presidential palace
The dramatic transformation in the reality on the ground will be felt even more starkly by Iran, whose forces have similarly been instrumental in supporting the regime, both through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
Syria has been a key part of an axis of influence cultivated by the IRGC over decades and has been an important site for smuggling weapons to Tehran’s proxy forces across the region.
An image of Mr Assad riddled with bullets at the provincial government office building in Hama. Pic: AP
Turkey could emerge as an important ally
Other regional powers will also be rapidly reassessing their approach to Damascus.
Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, will be an interesting nation to watch.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has long strongly opposed Mr Assad and has been an important backer for a number of rebel groupings that helped to oust him.
It means Ankara could well emerge as an important ally to the new Syrian leadership.
Trump may be left with little choice
The United States, which has been supporting a Kurdish rebel group in the northeast of Syria, has been unusually muted during the past week of unprecedented change.
President elect Donald Trump has been clear he does not see a role for Washington in the crisis.
But should the situation descend into escalating bloodshed once again, he may have little choice.
World
Thai prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra sacked for ethics violation after leaked phone call
Thailand’s prime minister has been sacked after a leaked phone call with a senior Cambodian politician caused outrage.
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was Thailand’s youngest PM, has been dismissed from office by the country’s Constitutional Court after only a year in power.
The court found Ms Shinawatra, 39, violated ethics in a leaked June telephone call, during which she appeared to kowtow to Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen as the bordering countries were on the verge of an armed conflict.
She also criticised a Thai army commander – a taboo move in a country where the military is extremely influential.
Fighting erupted weeks later and lasted five days. At least 35 people were killed and more than 260,000 were displaced.
Ms Shinawatra, who was new to politics when she took office in August last year, apologised over the call and said she was trying to avert a war. She was suspended in July.
Ms Shinawatra arriving at Government House in Bangkok ahead of the verdict on Friday. Pic: Reuters
She is now the fifth Thai PM from, or backed by, the billionaire Shinawatra family to be removed by the military or the judiciary in 17 years, amid a battle for power between the country’s warring elites.
The ruling thrusts Thailand into more political uncertainty at a time of public unease over stalled reforms and a stuttering economy.
Speaking after the court’s decision, the exiting PM said “all sides” in Thai politics now “have to work together to build political stability and to ensure that there won’t be another turning point again”.
The focus will now shift to who will replace Ms Shinawatra.
Her influential, billionaire father, Thaksin Shinawatra, who also once served as Thailand’s PM, is expected to be at the heart of a flurry of bargaining to keep the ruling Pheu Thai party in power.
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The leader of the main opposition People’s Party has called for the next prime minister to dissolve parliament once they are installed.
The deputy PM, Phumtham Wechayachai, and the current cabinet will act as government caretakers until a new leader is elected by parliament. There is no time limit on when that must take place.
After all those raised hopes of peace, Ukraine has been hit by the second-worst night of Russian air attacks since the war began.
So much for diplomacy, despite the Alaska summit, then the Washington DC meeting.
The Kremlin says it was aiming at military targets, but yet again, the pictures tell a very different story.
Follow latest: UK summons Putin’s ambassador
Firefighters work at the site of a burning building after a Russian attack in Kyiv, Ukraine. Pic: AP
One civilian building after another was hit, more than a dozen people were killed, and British Council and EU buildings were also damaged.
So what’s going on? Why is Vladimir Putin doing it?
Because he can.
The Russian president thinks he’s winning this war, and it’s hard to escape the conclusion that he’s using diplomacy to play for time while he carries on beating down the Ukrainians’ will to win.
And at the moment, no one is stopping him
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At least 14 killed in Kyiv attack
Ukraine is hitting back, particularly at Russia‘s oil installations, more of them going up in thick black smoke, after being hit by long-range Ukrainian drones.
It is taking a heavy toll on Putin’s ‘Achilles heel’, but on its own, analysts don’t expect it will be enough to persuade him to end this war.
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British Council building hit in Kyiv
The West can wring its hands in condemnation.
But it’s divided between Europe that wants a ceasefire and much more severe sanctions, and Donald Trump, who, it seems, does not – strangely always willing to sympathise with the Russians more than Ukraine.
He’s back to blaming Ukraine for starting the war, saying earlier in the week that Kyiv should not have got into a war it had no chance of winning.
It is a grotesque perversion of history. Ukraine, of course, had no choice but to fight to defend itself when it was invaded in an act of unprovoked aggression.
Every time the US president has condemned Russia for these kinds of attacks, he has never followed through and done nothing to punish them.
Rescue workers carry an injured woman after a Russian strike on Kyiv, Ukraine. Pic: AP
More worryingly for the Ukrainians, the Russians are getting the upper hand in the drones war, taking Iranian technology and souping it up into faster-moving drones that the Ukrainians are having increasing difficulty bringing down.
They expect as many as a thousand drones a night coming their way by the winter, and many, many more innocents to die.
Next week, Putin will join Chinese and North Korean leaders in a summit in Beijing, both supporting his war in Ukraine.
(L-R) Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Kim Jong Un. Pics: Reuters
Read more from Dominic Waghorn:
Ukrainians warn they’re in danger of losing drone arms race
We are further away from peace now than we were two weeks ago
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
A war that began as one man’s mad idea has, in three and a half years, metastasised into a titanic struggle between east and west, fought increasingly with machines in a dystopian evolution of war.
If Mr Trump is not prepared to use his power to bring this war to an end, what will another three and a half years of his presidency bring?
It is a chilling question.
World
Boy, 8, and girl, 10, killed in US Catholic school shooting named – as father brands attacker ‘a coward’
The families of two children killed in the US Catholic school shooting have said their “hearts are broken” and branded the attacker a “coward”.
Fletcher Merkel who was eight and 10-year-old Harper Moyski were killed during mass at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis on Wednesday.
Eighteen other people were injured, including children aged between six and 15 and three adults in their 80s.
Police said Robin Westman, a male born as Robert Westman, opened fire with a rifle through the windows of the school’s church as children sat in pews.
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New details released of US school shooting
‘Our hearts are broken’
Harper’s parents, Michael Moyski and Jackie Flavin, remembered her as “a bright, joyful, and deeply loved 10-year-old whose laughter, kindness, and spirit touched everyone who knew her”.
“Our hearts are broken not only as parents, but also for Harper’s sister, who adored her big sister and is grieving an unimaginable loss. As a family, we are shattered, and words cannot capture the depth of our pain,” their statement said.
They urged leaders and communities to “take meaningful steps to address gun violence and the mental health crisis in this country.”
“Change is possible, and it is necessary – so that Harper’s story does not become yet another in a long line of tragedies,” the statement added.
The family of Fletcher Merkel said there was a ‘hole in our hearts’. Pic: Family handout/AP
‘Fletcher loved his family’
In a statement reported by Sky’s US partner network NBC News, Fletcher’s father Jesse Merkel blamed the “coward” killer for why the boy’s family can’t “hold him, talk to him, play with him, and watch him grow into the wonderful young man he was on the path to becoming”.
He said: “Fletcher loved his family, friends, fishing, cooking, and any sports that he was allowed to play.
“While the hole in our hearts and lives will never be filled, I hope that in time, our family can find healing.”
Mr Merkel also praised “the swift and heroic actions of children and adults alike from inside the church”.
“Without these people and their selfless actions, this could have been a tragedy of many magnitudes more. For these people, I am thankful,” he added.
Families and loved ones reunite at the scene after the shooting. Pic: Reuters
Mayor calls for assault weapon ban
It comes after Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey called for a statewide and federal ban on assault weapons, a day after the deadly school shooting.
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Minneapolis mayor urges assault weapons ban
“Thoughts and prayers are not going to cut it. It’s on all of us to see this through,” the mayor said at a news conference. “We need a statewide and a federal ban on assault weapons.
“We need a statewide and a federal ban on high-capacity magazines. There is no reason that someone should be able to reel off 30 shots before they even have to reload.
“We’re not talking about your father’s hunting rifle gear. We’re talking about guns that are built to pierce armour and kill people.”
Meanwhile, Minneapolis police chief Brian O’Hara gave an update on the investigation, saying the suspect had fired 116 rifle rounds into the church.
“It is very clear that this shooter had the intention to terrorise those innocent children,” he added, before saying the killer “fantasised” about the plans of other mass shooting attackers and wanted to “obtain notoriety”.
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Thomas Klemond, interim CEO of Minneapolis’s main trauma hospital Hennepin Healthcare, said at an earlier news conference that the hospital was treating nine patients injured in the shooting.
One child at the hospital was in a critical condition, he added.
Children’s Minnesota Hospital also said that three children remain in its care as of Thursday morning.
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