The fall of Assad in Syria creates a security vacuum – and may give Donald Trump little choice but to play a role
The lightning collapse of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria exposes the brittleness of even the most brutal dictatorship when under pressure, but it also creates a security vacuum that carries great risk.
Once the scenes of rebel euphoria subside on the streets, much will rest on the powerful group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which led the charge into Damascus overnight.
Previously linked to al Qaeda, this Sunni Islamist militant faction is viewed as a terrorist organisation by many Western powers, including the UK.
But the movement has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots and instead emphasise a commitment to tolerance of minorities.
Read more: Latest updates from Syria
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‘New era in Middle East’
Now, having achieved such stunning success over the past few days, its leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani faces the even bigger task of uniting a country that has been divided by civil war for more than 13 years.
The Assad regime, which comes from Syria’s minority Alawite sect of Shia Islam, inflicted terrible violence on its people, in particular during the first years of the uprising that began in 2011 – and including the use of chemical weapons.
Bringing those responsible to justice without resorting to violent retribution will be a key, though hugely difficult, test for whether a transition of power led by HTS can be relatively peaceful.
Even with the best intentions of the HTS leadership, though, Syria has become a breeding ground for Sunni Islamist terrorism – and this threat could grow.
Any security vacuum will be exploited by Islamic State – which formed a caliphate across swathes of Syria and Iraq during the early years of the civil war – and by al Qaeda.
Read more:
Analysis: What comes next is of great concern
Who are the Syrian rebels – and what are their plans?
Mr Assad and Vladimir Putin in Moscow in July 2024. Pic: AP
Putin must be in crisis mode
Then there is the question of Mr Assad’s foreign backers, primarily Russia and Iran.
Vladimir Putin must surely be in crisis mode following the sudden vanquishing of an ally he had previously successfully propped up when rebel groups first challenged his grip on power.
Russia has two strategic military facilities on Syria’s Mediterranean coast – the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province.
Both will be under threat unless the Kremlin is able to cut some hasty deal with Syria’s emerging powerbrokers – though such a move would surely be near-on impossible given Moscow’s part in supporting the violence carried out previously by Mr Assad’s army.
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Syrian rebels storm presidential palace
The dramatic transformation in the reality on the ground will be felt even more starkly by Iran, whose forces have similarly been instrumental in supporting the regime, both through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
Syria has been a key part of an axis of influence cultivated by the IRGC over decades and has been an important site for smuggling weapons to Tehran’s proxy forces across the region.
An image of Mr Assad riddled with bullets at the provincial government office building in Hama. Pic: AP
Turkey could emerge as an important ally
Other regional powers will also be rapidly reassessing their approach to Damascus.
Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, will be an interesting nation to watch.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has long strongly opposed Mr Assad and has been an important backer for a number of rebel groupings that helped to oust him.
It means Ankara could well emerge as an important ally to the new Syrian leadership.
Trump may be left with little choice
The United States, which has been supporting a Kurdish rebel group in the northeast of Syria, has been unusually muted during the past week of unprecedented change.
President elect Donald Trump has been clear he does not see a role for Washington in the crisis.
But should the situation descend into escalating bloodshed once again, he may have little choice.
An Afghan man who worked for the British military has told Sky News he feels betrayed and has “completely lost (his) mind” after his identity was part of a massive data breach.
He told The World with Yalda Hakim about the moment he discovered he was among thousands of Afghans whose personal details were revealed, putting him at risk of reprisals from the Taliban.
The man, who spoke anonymously to Sky News from Afghanistan, says he worked with British forces for more than 10 years.
But now, he regrets working alongside those troops, who were first deployed to Afghanistan in 2001.
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Afghans being relocated after data breach
“I have done everything for the British forces … I regret that – why (did) I put my family in danger because of that? Is this is justice?
“We work for them, for [the] British, we help them. So now we are left behind, right now. And from today, I don’t know about my future.”
He described receiving an email warning him that his details had been revealed.
He said: “When I saw this one story… I completely lost my mind. I just thought… about my future… my family’s.
“I’ve got two kids. All my family are… in danger. Right now… I’m just completely lost.”
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The mistake by the Ministry of Defence in early 2022 ranks among the worst security breaches in modern British history because of the cost and risk posed to the lives of thousands of Afghans.
On Tuesday, a court order – preventing the media reporting details of a secret relocation programme – was lifted.
Read more from Sky News:
Minister defends handling of breach
The struggle for equality in Afghanistan
Afghan women throw babies to troops
Reuters file pic
Defence Secretary John Healey said about 6,900 Afghans and their family members have been relocated or were on their way to the UK under the previously secret scheme.
He said no one else from Afghanistan would be offered asylum, after a government review found little evidence of intent from the Taliban to seek retribution.
But the anonymous Afghan man who spoke to Sky News disputed this. He claimed the Taliban, who returned to power in 2021, were actively seeking people who worked with British forces.
“My family is finished,” he said. “I request… kindly request from the British government… the King… please evacuate us.
“Maybe tomorrow we will not be anymore. Please, please help us.”
World
Ross Edgley: The British ‘Thor’ swimming 1,000 miles around Iceland – and what happened when he met killer whales
Towering waves, freezing temperatures and even some inquisitive killer whales. Iceland is doing its best to defeat Ross Edgley.Â
Inspired by “Thor”, the British extreme athlete is in the middle of a challenge worthy of the Norse god – spending four months swimming 1,000 miles around the whole of Iceland in the name of science.
And while it comes with its challenges – a video of parts of his tongue falling off because of the salty sea water went viral – there have also been moments of beauty in the rugged Viking landscape.
“We’re on the northern coast right now,” Ross tells Sky News as he prepares to get back in the water.
“There’s nothing to stop the wind coming from the Arctic, and it’s just smashing into the north of Iceland. We’re miles out, just like a bobbing cork getting absolutely battered.”
Ross is making his way around Iceland clockwise after setting off from Reykjavik
Ross, from Cheshire, is no stranger to endurance events like this. In 2018, he swam nearly 1,800 miles around the coast of Great Britain and earned a Guinness World Record for swimming 317 miles along the Yukon River in Canada.
But the punishing cold as 39-year-old Ross swims 30km (18 miles) a day around Iceland is something else.
“The body just takes a consistent battering,” he says, characteristically cheery and enthusiastic despite everything.
“You just do your best to keep it in some sort of shape, controlling the inevitable breakdown of your body, hoping that you get back into Reykjavik.”
Some of the injuries Ross has picked up so far, and the salt water hinders healing
He’s eating between 10,000 and 15,000 calories a day – with pasta and his new favourite Icelandic liquorice as menu staples – just to keep going.
“You’re basically running through all of that food – I’m constantly saying it’s basically just an eating competition with a bit of swimming thrown in,” he chuckles. “But that’s genuinely what it is.”
His average day – storms permitting – sees Ross getting up and swimming for six hours, resting for six hours, and then getting back in the water to swim another six hours.
“You just do that on repeat. It’s really simple in theory, but brutal in reality.”
Ross is covering about 18 miles (30km) a day
To get ready for the cool Icelandic waters, Ross took inspiration from animals that have made it their home for thousands of years: whales and seals.
“I ended up putting on about 10-15 kilos of just pure fat. A bit of muscle as well but a lot of fat.
“When you look at what sort of animals survive in Iceland, there’s that idea of sea blubber. You want insulation, you want body fat.”
Perhaps unlike a seal however, Ross takes great care to defend the reputation of the killer whales that hunt in Icelandic seas.
“We’ve seen a lot, pods of them have come by and checked me out, wondering what the strange Englishman was doing in Icelandic waters, and then we went our separate ways.
“I want to combat some of the bad PR that orcas might have because there’s never been a verified case of an orca attacking a human in the wild. It just doesn’t exist.
“They’re amazing animals that deserve our respect and shouldn’t be feared.”
Ross back on board his support boat after swimming
There’s also a big scientific focus for Ross’s challenge as well.
“If we achieve this, it will achieve so much in terms of sports science – the first person to swim around Iceland. But that wasn’t a big enough reason to do it.”
Ross spoke to scientists who said that if he was “crazy enough” to want to do the swim, he would be able to collect daily samples of environmental DNA in the water, as well as levels of microplastics.
“By the end we’re just going to have this map of biodiversity around the whole coast of Iceland in a level of detail we’ve never really seen before. It’s going to be so comprehensive.
“So I think as the legacy of this swim, records and everything will be nice, but I actually think the science and the research that we contribute and give back will be unbelievable and actually make the chafing and losing parts of my tongue worth it.”
The swim is being paid for by a mix of sponsorships and self-funding.
Ross Edgley is swimming 1,000 miles around Iceland. Pic: James Appleton/BMW
Ross says he was inspired to take on the challenge in part by actor Chris Hemsworth and his role as the Norse god Thor, joking that the feat would be the closest thing to swimming around Asgard, the realm of the deities from ancient Scandinavia.
As he makes his way around the island, he gets to meet a local community where stories of Nordic gods are still an important part of life.
“It’s amazing, we’re just hearing these stories of Nordic folklore, sagas written about every single fjord we go around. It’s unbelievable.”
Ross and his team rest on land between swims
Fresh off one marathon swimming session, Ross and his team jumped into action to help the local community rescue 30 stranded whales.
“The team were absolutely exhausted… but having rescued the whales was the most rewarding moment as well.”
A moment of downtime on the boat. Pic: Ross Edgley/YouTube
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Ross set off on his swimming quest on 17 May, and it’s likely going to be a couple more months before he arrives back in Reykjavik.
He suggested that September is the goal, but added: “But you make plans and Iceland laughs at them.”
Picture credits: Ross Edgley/YouTube
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