The fall of Assad in Syria creates a security vacuum – and may give Donald Trump little choice but to play a role
The lightning collapse of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria exposes the brittleness of even the most brutal dictatorship when under pressure, but it also creates a security vacuum that carries great risk.
Once the scenes of rebel euphoria subside on the streets, much will rest on the powerful group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which led the charge into Damascus overnight.
Previously linked to al Qaeda, this Sunni Islamist militant faction is viewed as a terrorist organisation by many Western powers, including the UK.
But the movement has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots and instead emphasise a commitment to tolerance of minorities.
Read more: Latest updates from Syria
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‘New era in Middle East’
Now, having achieved such stunning success over the past few days, its leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani faces the even bigger task of uniting a country that has been divided by civil war for more than 13 years.
The Assad regime, which comes from Syria’s minority Alawite sect of Shia Islam, inflicted terrible violence on its people, in particular during the first years of the uprising that began in 2011 – and including the use of chemical weapons.
Bringing those responsible to justice without resorting to violent retribution will be a key, though hugely difficult, test for whether a transition of power led by HTS can be relatively peaceful.
Even with the best intentions of the HTS leadership, though, Syria has become a breeding ground for Sunni Islamist terrorism – and this threat could grow.
Any security vacuum will be exploited by Islamic State – which formed a caliphate across swathes of Syria and Iraq during the early years of the civil war – and by al Qaeda.
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Analysis: What comes next is of great concern
Who are the Syrian rebels – and what are their plans?
Mr Assad and Vladimir Putin in Moscow in July 2024. Pic: AP
Putin must be in crisis mode
Then there is the question of Mr Assad’s foreign backers, primarily Russia and Iran.
Vladimir Putin must surely be in crisis mode following the sudden vanquishing of an ally he had previously successfully propped up when rebel groups first challenged his grip on power.
Russia has two strategic military facilities on Syria’s Mediterranean coast – the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province.
Both will be under threat unless the Kremlin is able to cut some hasty deal with Syria’s emerging powerbrokers – though such a move would surely be near-on impossible given Moscow’s part in supporting the violence carried out previously by Mr Assad’s army.
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Syrian rebels storm presidential palace
The dramatic transformation in the reality on the ground will be felt even more starkly by Iran, whose forces have similarly been instrumental in supporting the regime, both through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.
Syria has been a key part of an axis of influence cultivated by the IRGC over decades and has been an important site for smuggling weapons to Tehran’s proxy forces across the region.
An image of Mr Assad riddled with bullets at the provincial government office building in Hama. Pic: AP
Turkey could emerge as an important ally
Other regional powers will also be rapidly reassessing their approach to Damascus.
Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, will be an interesting nation to watch.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has long strongly opposed Mr Assad and has been an important backer for a number of rebel groupings that helped to oust him.
It means Ankara could well emerge as an important ally to the new Syrian leadership.
Trump may be left with little choice
The United States, which has been supporting a Kurdish rebel group in the northeast of Syria, has been unusually muted during the past week of unprecedented change.
President elect Donald Trump has been clear he does not see a role for Washington in the crisis.
But should the situation descend into escalating bloodshed once again, he may have little choice.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation.
The 53-year-old said he will step down as leader of the country’s ruling Liberal Party, which he has led since 2013.
He says it will allow his party to choose a new leader as he suspends parliament until March due to political deadlock.
Chrystia Freeland, seen on the day she quit as finance minister and deputy prime minister in December. Pic: Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP
Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation
Speaking to reporters in front of his residence at Rideau Cottage, in the country’s capital, Ottawa, he said “internal battles” mean that he “cannot be the best option” in the next election.
“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well-being of democracy is something that I hold dear.
“A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party will carry its values and ideals into that next election. I am excited to see that process unfold in the months ahead.”
Former governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, is among the favourites to succeed him.
Chrystia Freeland, whose stunning resignation as finance minister and deputy prime minister precipitated the current crisis, leads in the polls.
Other front-runners are the former premier of British Columbia, Christy Clark, current finance minister Dominic LeBlanc and minister of foreign affairs, Melanie Joly.
Mr Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, faced calls to quit from a chorus of his MPs amid poor showings in opinion polls.
He came under further pressure after Ms Freeland quit in December because of policy disagreements, including over how to handle possible US tariffs imposed by Donald Trump‘s incoming administration.
Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump in Italy in 2017. Pic: AP
Mr Trudeau’s resignation comes as the polls show his party is likely to suffer a heavy defeat to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.
The Liberals must now name an interim leader to take over as prime minister ahead of a special leadership convention.
Mr Trudeau came to power 10 years ago following a decade of Conservative Party rule and was initially praised for returning the country to its liberal past.
But he has become deeply unpopular with voters in recent years over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing and surging immigration.
He is the eldest son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, who led the country from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984.
The political upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Canada internationally.
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US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Ottawa does not stem what Mr Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs into the US.
Many fewer of each cross into the US from Canada than from Mexico, which Mr Trump has also threatened.
In a social media post on Christmas Day, Mr Trump even suggested the US could take control of Canada, as well as Greenland and the Panama Canal.
Canada is a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the US, which also relies on its northern neighbour for steel, aluminium and autos.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation.
The 53-year-old said he will step down as leader of the country’s ruling Liberal Party, which he has led since 2013.
He says it will allow his party to choose a new leader as he suspends parliament until March due to political deadlock.
Chrystia Freeland, seen on the day she quit as finance minister and deputy prime minister in December. Pic: Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press via AP
Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation
Speaking to reporters in front of his residence at Rideau Cottage, in the country’s capital, Ottawa, he said “internal battles” mean that he “cannot be the best option” in the next election.
“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well-being of democracy is something that I hold dear.
“A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party will carry its values and ideals into that next election. I am excited to see that process unfold in the months ahead.”
Mr Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, faced calls to quit from a chorus of his MPs amid poor showings in opinion polls.
He came under further pressure after his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned in December over clashes on policy.
The disagreements included how to handle possible US tariffs imposed by Donald Trump‘s incoming administration.
Justin Trudeau and Donald Trump in Italy in 2017. Pic: AP
Mr Trudeau’s resignation comes as the polls show his party is likely to suffer a heavy defeat to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.
The Liberals must now name an interim leader to take over as prime minister ahead of a special leadership convention.
Mr Trudeau came to power 10 years ago following a decade of Conservative Party rule and was initially praised for returning the country to its liberal past.
But he has become deeply unpopular with voters in recent years over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing and surging immigration.
He is the eldest son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, who led the country from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984.
The political upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Canada internationally.
Read more:
Former golden boy’s popularity in shreds
Zimbabwean migrants heading to South Africa
60m Americans under weather warnings
US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Ottawa does not stem what Mr Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs into the US.
Many fewer of each cross into the US from Canada than from Mexico, which Mr Trump has also threatened.
In a social media post on Christmas Day, Mr Trump even suggested the US could take control of Canada, as well as Greenland and the Panama Canal.
Canada is a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the US, which also relies on its northern neighbour for steel, aluminium and autos.
Few one-time golden boys manage to retain their lustre long into political office.
Barack Obama just about held on to his, leaving the US presidency with his approval rating high despite his party’s 2016 loss to Donald Trump.
But Emmanuel Macron is faltering in France and Justin Trudeau steps down as head of Canada’s liberal party with his popularity in shreds. So much for Western liberal values.
In the high tides of inflation and immigration, those who were their supposed flag-bearers are no longer what electorates want.
Follow live: Justin Trudeau announces resignation
For Mr Trudeau, it is a dramatic reckoning. His approval ratings have dropped from 65% at their highest in September 2016 to 22% now, according to the “Trudeau Tracker” from Canada’s non-profit Angus Reid Institute.
The sudden departure of his finance minister and key political ally Chrystia Freeland last month dealt his leadership a body blow, just as Canada readies itself for a potential trade war with the US which, she argued in a bracing resignation letter, his government was not taking seriously enough.
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“Parliament has been paralysed for months,” Trudeau says
The man Mr Trump recently trolled as “Governor of the ‘Great State of Canada’ or ’51st (US) state'”, Mr Trudeau was as close to Canadian political royalty as it gets.
The son of the country’s 15th prime minister, Pierre Trudeau, he was famously toasted by US president Richard Nixon as “the future prime minister of Canada” when he joined his father on a state visit as a toddler.
Aged five, he met the late Queen for the first time. “Thank you for making me feel so old”, she remarked drily at a re-meet in Malta almost 40 years later.
He has led Canada’s liberal party since 2013 and served as the country’s 23rd prime minister for almost a decade.
Mr Trudeau won a resounding electoral victory in 2015 and secured the premiership through two subsequent elections, though as head of a minority government.
Mr Trudeau, his wife and children celebrate after he won the Federal Liberal leadership in 2013 in Ottawa. Pic: AP/The Canadian Press/Adrian Wyld
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He made significant inroads against poverty in Canada, worked hard on nation to nation reconciliation with Canada’s indigenous communities, secured an effective trade deal with the US and Mexico in 2016 and managed to keep the public mostly on-side through the COVID-19 pandemic.
But he was a polarising figure. Holidays in exotic climes like a trip to the Bahamas in 2016 to an island belonging to the Aga Khan made him seem elitist and out of touch.
There was embarrassment when blackface images surfaced from his early years as a teacher, for which he apologised profusely.
His supposed liberal credentials smacked of double standards when he invoked emergency powers to crush truckers’ protests in 2022.
But it was the economic aftermath of the pandemic, with Canada suffering an acute housing shortage, immigration leaping under his premiership and the cost of living hitting households across the board which really piled on the pressure.
In those, Canada is not unique. But the opposition conservatives and the public at large clearly want change, and Mr Trudeau has responded.
He has announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister after the Liberals selects their next leader.
Mr Trudeau’s legacy may shine brighter with a little hindsight. But now is not that moment.
The question is whether his conservative opposition will fare any better in an increasingly combative geopolitical environment if, as seems likely, a candidate of their choosing wins a federal election due at some point this year.
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