The weight-loss drug boom has become one of the internet’s biggest scams
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12 months agoon
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A production line of Wegovy injection pens for the Asian market at the Novo Nordisk A/S pharmaceutical manufacturing facility in Hillerod, Denmark, on Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
One interpretation of the law of supply and demand is that when demand outstrips supply, scammers get busy. That’s certainly the case with the super-popular weight-loss drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
As millions of Americans are prescribed injectable Ozempic and Mounjaro to treat type 2 diabetes, and Wegovy and Zepbound for obesity — and countless more without prescriptions seek them as “vanity drugs” to shed unwanted pounds — the manufacturers can’t keep up production. The GLP-1s, as they’re known, are pricey, too, and insurance often doesn’t cover them, provided consumers can find them.
That confluence of factors has laid the groundwork not only for a confusing online marketplace for compounded versions of the drugs — allowed by the Food and Drug Administration when proprietary ingredients are determined to be in short supply — but a proliferation of nefarious scams offering to sell both brand-name and counterfeit GLP-1s on websites and social media platforms.
Consumers have received Lilly- and Novo-branded GLP-1s from unauthorized sellers, counterfeit versions, completely different medications or nothing at all — other than an expensive rip-off. Most disturbing, Novo told CNBC that as of mid-November, it is aware of 14 deaths and 144 hospitalizations of people who had taken compounded semaglutide, the active pharmaceutical ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy. It recently asked the FDA to ban the copycat drugs.
Within the past year, cybersecurity experts, consumer advocates, pharma researchers and media investigators have uncovered scores of accounts and content on TikTok, Facebook, Instagram and other social media platforms, as well as numerous websites, where bad actors have been doing business, much of it illegal or at least unethical.
In May, a joint investigation by the nonprofits Digital Citizens Alliance and Coalition for a Safer Web revealed how consumers are flocking to TikTok — which faces an uncertain future after a federal court on Friday upheld a law that would seek to ban the company in the U.S. on Jan. 19 — and other social media platforms and websites to purchase branded and illicit GLP-1s, often without a prescription. According to the report, scammers create accounts promising to sell the drugs for between $200 and $400 for a month’s supply — far below market prices — paid through Zelle, Venmo and PayPal rather than traditional credit cards so as to avoid tracking.
“Scammers take advantage of human emotion and human want, and the emotion and want now is that everybody wants to lose weight,” said Eric Feinberg, vice president of content moderation for the Coalition for a Safer Web. “It’s a perfect audience to use online to take advantage of people psychologically and emotionally.”
A common ruse the investigation exposed was sellers saying the drugs were coming from overseas and then claiming that the order was held up in customs, requiring an additional $300 to $500 payment to release it. The scammers were devious, said Tom Galvin, executive director of Digital Citizens Alliance. “They send a tracking number from a delivery service that shows you where your package is, but the tracking number is BS.” Digital Citizens shelled out just over $3,000 to purchase GLP-1s, and yet the money yielded no deliveries of the drugs.
No-delivery ploys can exact a serious financial toll on victims, but “the more scary ones are where you do get a product and don’t even know whether you can trust [it] or if it’s a valid company,” said Abhishek Karnik, director for threat research and response for cybersecurity firm McAfee.
Phishing for weight-loss drug victims
Tracking activity over the first four months of this year, McAfee’s Threat Research Team uncovered just how prolific weight-loss scams have become across malicious websites, scam emails and texts, posts on social media and online marketplace listings. From January through April, McAfee researchers discovered 449 risky website URLs and 176,871 dangerous phishing attempts centered around Ozempic, Wegovy and semaglutide, an increase of 183% compared to October through December 2023.
Karnik’s team has continued to monitor these criminal activities. “We’ve identified [a total of] 367,000-plus phishing attempts, and between May and August, the number of [risky] URLs we found increased by 135%,” he said.
JAMA Network Open in August published the results of a study by an international group of researchers who searched the global internet to ferret out websites for online pharmacies advertising semaglutide for sale. Among the 317 operations found, more than 42% were illegal, operating without a valid license, selling medications without prescriptions and shipping unregistered and falsified products. Six purchases were made, but only three were delivered.
A recent CNBC investigation explored the murky international world of counterfeit weight-loss drugs. Among its findings, investigators recounted the seizure in the UK last year of hundreds of what appeared to be Ozempic pens, but were in fact insulin pens relabeled as Ozempic. They also discovered from Lilly that its retatrutide, a novel GLP-1 drug still in clinical trials and not FDA-approved, was being marketed to the public.

Counterfeits and diverted drugs — branded GLP-1s sold on the black market — originate from many countries, including India, China, the UK, Mexico and Turkey. One of the destinations where they make their way to the U.S. was New York’s JFK International Airport. According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, since January 1, the agency had made more than 198 seizures of products labeled as Ozempic.
In response to this glut of fraudulent activity, social media companies and web operators have employed human monitors and machine technology to identify and shut down online scammers. A TikTok spokesperson, without detailing its various monitoring efforts, referred to the company’s community guidelines. “We strictly prohibit the trade of drugs, and we do not allow attempts to defraud or scam members of our community,” the spokesperson said. “Our advertising policies also prohibit the advertising of weight-loss products, including weight-loss injections and fat-burning pills.”
Despite official policies, however, undeterred violators find workarounds when their accounts are shuttered. They might set up another account with the drug names misspelled, spaces between letters or mash-ups of semaglutide and terzepitide. Many instruct interested buyers to direct message them or send links to Telegram and other dark websites that encrypt content and provide anonymity.
“The social media platforms are the new street corners for drug dealers, and they move from place to place,” Galvin said. “It’s a game of whack-a-mole.”
Bags of counterfeit Novo Nordisk A/S Ozempic and Wegovy, foreground, and other fake drugs at a warehouse operated by the UK’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in London, UK, on Monday, Feb. 27, 2024. The UK task force tracks down illegal websites, monitors social media and even carries out raids to stamp out sales of fake “skinny jabs” as both organized crime and unscrupulous lone entrepreneurs look to capitalize on the weight-loss frenzy.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
For this article, CNBC found more than a dozen TikTok accounts that appeared to be selling GLP-1s in violation of its policies, including @ozempic_weightloss, @sema.irel and @semaglutideandtr. Soon after relaying the information to TikTok, we were told that all had been removed, except one, which was not in violation.
The widespread compounding of GLP-1s is another contributor to the dodgy marketplace for the drugs. In April and December of 2022, respectively, the FDA determined that semaglutide and tirzepatide were in short supply, opening the floodgates for compounding pharmacies and outsourcing facilities to manufacture, distribute and market copies, typically sold through telehealth companies, medical spas and wellness centers.
Compounded GLP-1s, unlike Lilly’s and Novo’s brands, are not FDA-approved, which means they do not undergo the agency’s review for safety, effectiveness and quality before they’re marketed. Instead, the FDA and state boards of pharmacy register, license and inspect compounding facilities and ingredients. And while some compounders meet regulatory requirements, such as Henry Meds, Noom Med, Ro and Hims & Hers Health, many others don’t.
Publicly traded Hims & Hers launched its gender-focused telehealth platform in 2017, adding compounded semaglutide to its weight-loss program this past May. “We waited until we were able to find the right compounding partner,” said Dr. Patrick Carroll, the company’s chief medial officer. Besides that partner, BPI Labs, Hims & Hers acquired another, MetasourceRx, in September. The company also sells branded Ozempic and next year will offer liraglutide, the first generic GLP-1.
FDA scrutiny
In the meantime, the FDA is investigating the bad actors in the compounding world. “Purchasing prescription drugs from unregulated, unlicensed sources without a prescription is risky,” a spokesperson for the agency told CNBC. “We urge consumers to be vigilant and to utilize tips tools from the FDA’s BeSafeRx campaign to help them safely buy drugs online.”
In May, the KFF Health Tracking Poll found that about one in eight adults (12%) said they had taken a GLP-1 drug, with about half, or 21 million, actively using the medications. Nearly 80% purchased the drugs or a prescription for them — at a cost between $936 to $1,349 per month before insurance coverage, rebates or coupons — from a primary care doctor or a specialist, according to the survey. Fewer reported getting them from an online provider or website (11%), a medical spa or aesthetic medical center (10%), or from somewhere else (2%). But that doesn’t count the inestimable number of individuals who have obtained GLP-1s without prescriptions through unregulated online channels and illicit online compounding pharmacies, many operating overseas.
While social media companies police illegal sellers of GLP-1s, hundreds of influencers are touting the drugs and their journeys using them across the platforms with impunity, according to a Fast Company report. Many influencers are recruited and paid by telehealth companies.
Meanwhile, household names have been increasingly speaking out about their personal use of these drugs, which increases familiarity and curiosity among the public. In October, People profiled 64 celebrities — including Kathy Bates, Elon Musk, Oprah Winfrey, Andy Cohen, Billie Jean King and Rob Lowe — who have talked about their weight-loss drug experiences, mostly on social media.
Currently, Lilly’s and Novo’s GLP-1s are prescribed only for type 2 diabetes and obesity. But as researchers find additional conditions that can be treated with the drugs — including cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, dementia and addiction, and most recently even knee pain — prescriptions will increase exponentially.
In September, an article in the Annals of Pharmacotherapy warned against manufacturers that use a legal loophole to sell vials containing semaglutide and tirzepatide to consumers without a prescription by stating that the drugs are for “research purposes only” and/or “not for human consumption.” The authors conducted an internet search for such scofflaws, uncovering 40 websites selling what were labeled as “peptides” to consumers.
The FDA has sent warning letters to a handful, including Miami-based US Chem Labs in February, citing several violations and requesting action within 15 days. As of Dec. 6, CNBC found that the company still listed compounded semaglutide as available on its website. US Chem Labs could not be reached by phone and an email request for comment was not returned by press time.
The authors of the Annals of Pharmacotherapy article also identified three companies that were advertising GLP-1s on Facebook, owned by Meta. “Our policies prohibit content that defrauds people by promoting false or misleading health claims, including those related to weight loss, and we remove this kind of content when we become aware of it,” a Meta spokesperson told CNBC. CNBC subsequently sent Meta the names of the three companies, and several days later their Facebook pages were removed.
Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk battle with copycat drugs
Workers walk past manufacturing equipment at Eli Lilly & Co. manufacturing plant in Kinsale, Ireland, on Sept. 12, 2024. Lilly has been bulking up its production capacity since 2020, investing more than $17 billion into developing new plants and expanding existing facilities for the weight-loss and diabetes drugs that are expected to become some of the best-selling medicines of all time.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Lilly and Novo are in a quandary regarding compounders. The copycats have filled a void while the branded GLP-1s are in shortage, attracting patients who can’t access or afford them.
But now the manufacturers want their domains to themselves. Lilly has sent cease-and-desist letters to numerous compounding sellers, and both companies have filed lawsuits against numerous compounding pharmacies, alleging trademark infringement and deceptive marketing.
On October 2, the FDA declared that Lilly’s tirzepatide was no longer in short supply, ostensibly putting compounders of that ingredient out of business. Two weeks later, though, after a public outcry from compounders’ patients and a federal lawsuit brought by compounding pharmacies, the FDA backtracked, saying it would reevaluate whether the drug is available and make a decision in mid-November.
Yet, on November 22, the FDA said it was still assessing the situation and agreed to not take action against compounders of tirzepatide until December 19, unless the agency makes an earlier decision.
Novo’s semaglutide is still listed as “currently in shortage” by the FDA, although the agency also lists Ozempic and Wegovy as “available.” A Novo Nordisk spokesperson told CNBC, “It’s important to note that availability doesn’t always mean immediate accessibility at every pharmacy. Patients may experience variability at specific locations, regardless of whether a drug is in shortage.”
Lilly and Novo have advocated for broadening insurance coverage for the drugs, and the Biden administration recently proposed that Medicare and Medicaid extend their coverage for obesity medications. Although that plan could be scuttled by the incoming Trump administration. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Trump’s nominee to head the Department of Health and Human Services, has suggested that obesity should be tackled through healthy eating, not drugs.
The obesity drug market volatility has shown up in recent earnings. In its third-quarter report on October 30, Lilly fell short of profit and revenue expectations, partly due to disappointing sales of its GLP-1s, even as demand for them continued to soar. A week later, Novo reported third-quarter earnings in line with expectations, strengthened by robust sales of Ozempic and Wegovy. Nonetheless, the Danish company narrowed its 2024 full-year growth guidance, reflecting, according to a statement from the company, “expected continued periodic supply constraints and related drug shortage notifications.”
Both pharma giants continue to invest billions to increase production facilities and capacity. This week, Lilly said it was investing $3 billion to increase obesity drug production at a Wisconsin plant.
Regardless, demand for GLP-1s — no matter if they’re branded, compounded or counterfeit or where they’re purchased from — is certain to keep growing. That will put more pressure on social media platforms and web operators to guard against scams.
Galvin suggested that the companies need to work together to identify scammers as they navigate between platforms to avoid detection. “Too many platforms look at this as a PR problem and not an internet safety problem,” he said. “If they were collaborating with each other to identify the bad actors and shared that information, people would find a lot less of them.”
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Technology
Nvidia earnings, Target’s profit outlook, Meta’s antitrust victory and more in Morning Squawk
Published
4 hours agoon
November 19, 2025By
admin
The Nvidia logo is displayed on a building at Nvidia headquarters on August 27, 2025 in Santa Clara, California.
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This is CNBC’s Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.
Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. AI wars
Wall Street may be losing some of its excitement for artificial intelligence, but the battle among major technology companies for dominance in the field hasn’t cooled. After the bell today, investor attention will zero in on just one event: Nvidia‘s earnings report.
Here’s the latest on Nvidia and the sector:
- Nvidia has fallen more than 4% this week as investors await its third-quarter results. Shares are up more than 1% in premarket trading today.
- Nvidia and Microsoft yesterday announced a partnership with AI startup Anthropic. A source told CNBC that with the investments, Anthropic’s valuation now stands at around $350 billion — up from $183 billion in September.
- Microsoft also unveiled its own product that can automatically detect the use of AI agents developed by the tech company or some other tech firms.
- Google, meanwhile, announced its upgraded Gemini 3 model as it attempts to keep up with OpenAI’s ChatGPT.
- Intuit will pay OpenAI more than $100 million in a multiyear deal that will integrate ChatGPT in the company’s financial products, like TurboTax.
- The decline in Nvidia and other AI names yesterday dragged down the broader market, with the S&P 500 logging its longest losing streak since August.
- Follow live markets updates here.
2. Missed the bullseye
Target Corp. shopping baskets sit on the floor of a company store
Christopher Dilts | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Target posted third-quarter revenue that was slightly below Wall Street’s expectations this morning and cut the top end of its full-year profit outlook. Shares fell about 2% in premarket trading following the results.
Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke said the retailer is focused on making investments and decisions that “get Target back to growth as quickly as possible.” But, as CNBC’s Melissa Repko notes, Fiddelke declined to say exactly when he thought the company would see positive sales again.
Lowe’s similarly lowered its full-year profit outlook before the bell. However, the home improvement retailer reported stronger-than-anticipated earnings per share for the third quarter, sending the stock up more than 6% in premarket trading.
3. Epstein files
A protester holds a placard after the House voted 427-1 to approve the Epstein Files Transparency Act and the release of documents and files at the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 18, 2025 in Washington, DC.
Roberto Schmidt | Getty Images
Both chambers of Congress yesterday passed a bill that would release the Justice Department’s files tied to sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The measure now heads to the desk of President Donald Trump, who has said he would sign it into law.
Meanwhile, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said this morning that he is resigning from OpenAI’s board. Two days ago, Summers said that he would step back from public commitments following the release of his emails with Epstein.
4. WhatsApproved
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
Meta emerged victorious in its antirust case against the Federal Trade Commission yesterday. Judge James Boasberg said that the Facebook parent does not currently have a monopoly in social media, writing in his decision that TikTok and YouTube are “competitive threats.”
At the heart of the case was Meta’s acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp in 2012 and 2014, respectively. Regulators argued that the company should be forced to sever off the two brands.
The decision comes seven months after the trial began and five years since the FTC filed the suit. CEO Mark Zuckerberg, former operating chief Sheryl Sandberg and Instagram co-founder Kevin Systrom all testified in the trial.
Get Morning Squawk directly in your inbox
5. Online to IRL
People linger in the restaurant of the Netflix House experience center.
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After years of dominating the streaming world, Netflix is now betting on toys and in-person experiences.
The company has started jumping on product partnerships and marketing that traditional media firms have utilized for decades. As CNBC’s Sarah Whitten reports, Netflix’s push comes as the streamer’s original content library gains enough popular programming — think “KPop Demon Hunters” and “Bridgerton” — to justify retail investments.
Netflix has inked agreements with Hasbro, Mattel and Jazwares on merchandise tied to its media properties. The California-based company has also launched short- and long-term event spaces, including the new Netflix House Philadelphia.
The Daily Dividend
Trump lashed out at ABC yesterday after a reporter with the Disney-owned company’s news division asked the president why he had not released the Epstein files.
I think the license should be taken away from ABC. Because your news is so fake and so wrong.
President Donald Trump
— CNBC’s Ashley Capoot, MacKenzie Sigalos, Sean Conlon, Jordan Novet, Melissa Repko, Jonathan Vanian, Sarah Whitten and Kevin Breuninger contributed to this report. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.
Technology
Larry Summers resigns from OpenAI board after release of emails with Epstein
Published
5 hours agoon
November 19, 2025By
admin

Larry Summers, president emeritus and professor at Harvard University, at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, on Tuesday, Jan. 21, 2025.
Stefan Wermuth | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Wednesday that he will resign from the board of OpenAI after the release of emails between him and the notorious sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
Summers had announced Monday that he would be stepping back from all public commitments, but it was not immediately clear whether that included his position at the artificial intelligence startup.
“I am grateful for the opportunity to have served, excited about the potential of the company, and look forward to following their progress,” Summers said in a statement to CNBC.
OpenAI’s board told CNBC it respects Summers’ decision to resign.
“We appreciate his many contributions and the perspective he brought to the Board,” the OpenAI board of directors said in a statement.
Details of Summers’ correspondence with Epstein were made public last week after the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee released more than 20,000 documents it obtained pursuant to a subpoena from Epstein’s estate. Summers has faced intense scrutiny following the release of those files.
Summers joined OpenAI’s board in 2023 during a turbulent period for the startup. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was briefly ousted from the company, though he returned to the chief executive role days later.
In the wake of “The Blip,” as some OpenAI employees call it, Summers was appointed to the board alongside Bret Taylor, former co-CEO of Salesforce, and Quora CEO Adam D’Angelo, who was the only member of OpenAI’s previous board who still held a seat.
Axios was first to report about Summers’ resignation from the board.
Read more CNBC tech news
President Donald Trump on Friday asked the Department of Justice to investigate the relationship between Epstein and Summers, as well as Epstein’s ties to former President Bill Clinton, JPMorgan Chase and billionaire tech investor Reid Hoffman. Trump has been facing renewed pressure over his own past friendship with Epstein.
Summers is a former president of Harvard University, and Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts told CNN on Monday that the university should sever ties with him. He announced his intention to step back from his public commitments later that day, but said he will continue to fulfill his teaching obligations at Harvard.
“I am deeply ashamed of my actions and recognize the pain they have caused. I take full responsibility for my misguided decision to continue communicating with Mr. Epstein,” Summers said in a statement to CNBC on Monday.
Congress on Tuesday agreed to pass a bipartisan bill ordering the Department of Justice to release all of its files on Epstein, clearing the path for Trump to sign it into law.
WATCH: House overwhelmingly votes to release more Epstein investigation files, sends bill to Senate

Technology
The $500 billion Nvidia question, and 4 others, CEO Jensen Huang must answer tonight
Published
6 hours agoon
November 19, 2025By
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Nvidia earnings, the most important report of the quarter, will be out after Wednesday’s close, and AI rockstar CEO Jensen Huang will be on the hot seat to answer tough questions about the spiraling artificial intelligence spending promises and how these tech companies — big and not so big — are going to pay for them all. Club stock Nvidia has gained about 35% year to date, as of Tuesday’s close, trading around $181 each. That’s nearly double their lowest close of 2025 on April 4, just days after President Donald Trump first announced his so-called reciprocal tariffs. There have been a lot of twists and turns in U.S. trade policy since then, with Trump making tariff deals with several countries and still working to reach one with China. Shares of Nvidia, which have largely benefited from Trump’s trade pacts and its own blockbuster AI dealmaking, closed at a record high of $207 on Oct. 29 and marked their first close above a $5 trillion market cap. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD Along with the incredible rise in the stock price, Nvidia’s earnings have kept pace. As a result, the stock still trades at about 27 times fiscal 2027 earnings estimates, the lower end of the range over the past decade. The forward price-to-earnings multiple is that far out because Nvidia’s earnings calendar has the company releasing Wednesday evening its fiscal 2026 third quarter, which ended in October. Unlike other recent quarters, Nvidia stock is not red-hot going into the print, and expectations are more reasonable. That’s because the concerns about AI valuations that have hit the overall stock market have crept into the Nvidia trade. The stock has dropped 12% from its record close and trades around a $4.4 trillion market cap. What to expect — and why According to the consensus analyst estimates compiled by LSEG, Nvidia is expected to report a 53% year-over-year increase in fiscal Q3 earnings per share (EPS) to $1.25 on revenue of $54.92 billion, which would be a 56% increase over the year-ago period. Wall Street analysts, per FactSet data, are looking for a 59% October quarter rise in data center segment revenue to $49.04 billion. Looking to the current fiscal fourth quarter, which ends in January, analysts are looking for management to guide revenue to about $62.17 billion, with a roughly 74% gross margin. An additional indication that demand is strong came on Nov. 10, when we learned that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang had reached out to key semiconductor manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor , asking that it increase wafer production. We believe this action was a clear indication that Huang expects the strong demand for Nvidia’s AI chips to continue and align with his “$500 billion in order visibility” comment he made at the company’s GTC event a few weeks ago. While there is a lot riding on Nvidia’s report, we do have a good sense of what it might say as it relates to the outlook for 2026. After all, the three biggest hyperscale cloud players – Club names Amazon and Microsoft , and Alphabet ‘s Google, as well as Club holding Meta Platforms – all made it quite clear that the spending they’re doing on AI infrastructure not only won’t slow down in 2026 but will increase. They all raised their spending outlooks, citing the need for far more computing power than currently available. In addition to the public companies forecasting more spending on AI infrastructure ahead, OpenAI is going around making massive commitments for more power and compute. Last week, we also learned that Amazon -backed Anthropic committed to building out $50 billion in data center infrastructure nationwide. Then, on Tuesday, Microsoft announced new partnerships with Anthropic and Nvidia. Anthropic pledged to buy $30 billion in Azure cloud capacity from Microsoft and additional compute from Nvidia’s Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems. In exchange, Microsoft will invest $5 billion into Anthropic, and Nvidia will put $10 billion into the startup. Sure, most, if not all, of these names are working internally on their own specialized chips. But we fully expect their spending with Nvidia to grow alongside their internal initiatives. There are still many benefits to working on a platform that is not only the industry standard for AI software development but also general-purpose in nature. It provides more flexibility and can support a wider range of applications, which is key to ensuring the capacity being built is able to be used no matter how customers’ needs and preferences may shift. That Nvidia flexibility can be seen when we look at what’s taking place with the neocloud players, like CoreWeave . In previewing CoreWeave’s quarter, analysts at Loop Capital noted that their checks before the release found “up to 8-year neocloud contracts being signed for Ampere,” in some cases at up to 90% of the original cost. That’s pretty shocking given that Nvidia’s Ampere is the predecessor to Hopper, which is the predecessor to Blackwell. In other words, the neocloud cohort is seeing so much demand against such a tight graphics processing unit (GPU) supply environment that they’re even willing to take chips originally released in mid-2020. That should ease any concerns over obsolescence, as it is clear that even two-generation-old chips have a place in today’s compute-starved world. In some cases, the older chips may even make more sense. According to Loop analysts, “While it’s true that Blackwell is more power efficient … it’s also true that Blackwell requires greater gross-power and that Ampere data centers are built in lower-power areas … and are constructed for air cooling. As such, it is more efficient to extend Ampere as is as opposed to taking the six months to retrofit the data centers for liquid cooling [needed for Blackwell] and lose the productivity while still being in a lower power area.” When reporting its quarter last Wednesday, CoreWeave reported a 134% increase in revenue and 271% increase in the revenue backlog, with CEO Michael Intrator calling out an operating environment that was “highly supply-constrained” due to “insatiable customer demand.” On the post-earnings call, Intrator backed Loop’s findings that older generation chips are still in high demand. “In Q3, we saw our first 10,000-plus H100 contract approaching expiration. Two quarters in advance, the customer proactively re-contracted for the infrastructure at a price within 5% of the original agreement. This is a powerful indicator of customer satisfaction as well as the long-term utility and differentiated value of the GPUs run on CoreWeave’s platform,” he said. CoreWeave CFO Nitin Agrawal added, “Demand remains robust for not just the Blackwell platform, but across our GPU portfolio. In the third quarter, we signed a number of deals for older generations of GPUs, adding new customers and re-contracting existing capacity.” To be sure, CoreWeave did have problems with some new data centers from a subcontractor that slammed the stock 16% on Nov. 11. Including that post-earnings slide, Tuesday was the sixth straight session of declines for CoreWeave. Intrator defended the quarter on CNBC, telling Jim Cramer that “every single part of this quarter went exactly as we planned, except for one delay at a singular data center.” Last Wednesday, we also heard from Advanced Micro Devices CEO Lisa Su after she addressed at an analyst day event earlier that week and forecasted companywide revenue would grow at a roughly 35% annual rate over the next three to five years. Su said on CNBC, “In the last 12 months, we’ve seen every one of our largest customers say, ‘We can see the inflection point now Lisa, like we can see that demand is accelerating because people are now starting to get real productivity out of the AI use cases,’ and you know we have all of the largest hyperscales in the world saying they’re investing more in capex because they can see the return on the other side of it.” 5 questions for Nvidia With the hyperscaler capex commentary, along with Huang’s request from Taiwan Semi, neocloud contracts indicating that Nvidia’s older offerings still have immense value, and Nvidia’s closest competitor, AMD, calling for significant growth in the years ahead, here are the five questions we have as we head into Nvidia’s quarterly release. 1. Can the market sustain 40% capex growth through the end of the decade? This is really going to depend on end market demand – which will itself depend on use cases – and Nvidia’s customers’ (like the cloud providers) ability to monetize that demand. While currently in a situation where the cloud players need to invest ahead of monetization to build out initial infrastructure, whether these levels of capex continue should be tied to the monetization trends. The last thing we want is for names like Meta to forget just how brutal Wall Street can be when spending to the high heavens without a clear path toward a positive return on investment. Meta learned that the hard way when the stock tanked 11% post-earnings and has generally moved lower since. 2. What did Huang mean about China winning the AI race, which was later softened? The answer here may be tied to the CEO’s style of “running scared,” meaning that despite all his success, Huang still seeks to innovate as fast as possible, lest anyone catch up or surpass Nvidia’s chip platforms. Is that what he was getting at? Trying to get the U.S. government to increase its sense of urgency as it relates to the AI arms race with China? We suspect so, but will look for him to clarify on the call. 3. What are the plans for free cash flow – capital returns to shareholders, more deals? Nvidia is a cash printing machine at the moment. Free cash flow is expected to increase by about 67% its fiscal 2026 third quarter. On a full fiscal year 2026 basis, the Street expects Nvidia’s cash flow to grow by about 60% and another 48% in fiscal 2027. With net debt estimated to be negative – meaning Nvidia is sitting on more in cash and equivalents than it owes to the tune of about $70 billion – investors are curious as to how management plans to deploy that cash. Share buybacks are always an option, but so are acquisitions or investments in other companies, which Nvidia has been doing at a furious pace. Any thoughts on that from management would be key. 4. How can we get clarity on the $500 billion of orders for Blackwell and Rubin? While we believe that number to include networking revenue related to these platforms, we will be listening for clues as to the timing of when this revenue will be realized, as well as management’s confidence in the financial standing of the customers placing these orders. 5. What about margins? Margins are always of interest since they tell us how much the top line we should expect to show up in earnings. That’s especially true when a new product is ramping, as that initial phase of production can often crunch profit margins. That said, we don’t think there will be the same margin hit going from Blackwell to Vera Rubin as we saw in transitioning from Hopper to the latest Blackwell platform. That’s because those two used different rack architectures. In contrast, the new Vera Rubin platform will use the same rack architecture as the Blackwell. Still, any commentary on margin dynamics is sure to be scrutinized by investors. AI spending concerns We would be remiss not to highlight some concerns we have as it relates to Nvidia. The major one is funding – not the funding of Nvidia’s needs, but rather the needs of its customers. While the hyperscaler customers plus Meta have previously funded their data center ambitions with free cash flow, we have started to see even these monstrously large players tap the debt markets. We must watch this new wrinkle to ensure that management teams haven’t forgotten about the value investors place on operating efficiency and disciplined spending, and that the borrowing doesn’t start to balloon. The Club also has concerns about the sheer dollar size of the commitments being made by names like Oracle, OpenAI, and SoftBank, the latter of which recently divested its stake in Nvidia to fund its commitment to OpenAI. We don’t view the SoftBank sale as a negative for Nvidia, as Nvidia needs OpenAI to make good on its spending commitments more than it needs the investment from SoftBank. However, the move does signal just how large the investment commitments are getting. The final, perhaps greatest, concern relating to funding in the AI space is that the major players are becoming increasingly interconnected with every new deal. That’s even more concerning when you consider that one of the biggest spenders, OpenAI, isn’t even pubic, which means we don’t have a clear picture of its financial standing and ability to make good on its commitments. Tuesday’s big news from another growing non-public player, Anthropic, raises the stakes. As noted earlier, Nvidia and Microsoft intend to invest in Anthropic, which itself has committed to spending on Microsoft’s Azure cloud and Nvidia’s GPUs. So, let’s sketch this out: A and B (Microsoft and Nvidia) invest in C (Anthropic), while C agrees to buy from A and B. One can see how this all starts to feel risky in the sense that if one domino falls, it’s going to have potentially massive ripple effects throughout the AI cohort. We expect the nature of the deals to come up during Nvidia’s post-earnings Q & A session, and we want to hear management explain why they think the concerns are overblown. Bottom line Ultimately, these concerns do keep us cautious in terms of putting new money to work in the data center theme. At the same time, signs of accelerating demand – which serve to support the committed increase in spending, much of that coming Nvidia’s way – keep us in the stock. We believe that while there may be hiccups along the way, long-term investors would do well to maintain a core position in Nvidia, the company at the heart of the entire AI investment cycle, and Jim’s mantra through the years on Nvidia: “Own it, don’t trade it.” (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NVDA, AMZN, MSFT, META. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
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