There was a time not all that long ago when the United States would be seeking clearly to drive and define a particular narrative and outcome for the events unfolding in the Middle East.
Seeking to mould events to its own benefit has been a central tenet of American foreign policy.
But the remarkable and fast-moving developments in Syria, come at an unusual moment for America.
In Washington DC, there is a vacuum of leadership.
We are in the midst of the transition between President Joe Biden and president-elect Donald Trump.
President Biden is still running things at the White House but his ability to influence events in the Middle East, if he is even inclined to, has been shown to be limited. He is the lamest of lame duck presidents.
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Mr Trump does not become president until 20 January and so is unable officially to do anything.
And yet he is already THE leading player on the world stage right now. What he does (and doesn’t do) and what he says (and doesn’t say) carries enormous weight.
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Assad’s ‘days as leader look numbered’
His presence in Paris this weekend – invited by President Emmanuel Macron – is as important as it is remarkable. I can’t think of a precedent; a moment in recent history where a president-elect would hold such influence.
Of the events in Syria, the Biden White House has said only that the administration is closely monitoring developments.
Donald Trump however, on social media, on brand, has declared his hand.
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Syria: Rebels ‘reach Damascus suburbs’
“Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!” he wrote.
On President Bashar al Assad’s fate, his words were only marginally ambiguous. It “may actually be the best thing” for Mr Assad to be toppled, he said.
Mr Trump will not take over as president for another six weeks. And yet already it feels like he is more of a player and moulder of global events (because of what he does and doesn’t choose to do and say) than at any time in his last presidency.
There’s another difference this time too.
During Mr Trump’s last presidency, there were powerful European counterbalances. But now, Germany’s former chancellor Angela Merkel is long gone and Mr Macron is weak, despite his diplomatic masterstroke in inviting Mr Trump to Paris.
Emmanuel Macron has said a peace deal with Russia “must not mean a surrender of Ukraine” – as Donald Trump claimed Vladimir Putin’s forces “want to end this war”.
The US and French presidents met amid fragile relations between America and Europe and after Mr Trump launched a verbal attack on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Meeting in the White House on the third anniversary of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the French president said he and Mr Trump “made substantive steps forward during our discussions”.
Mr Macron told reporters that Europe should do more to bolster defence in the continent.
However, he stressed Russia “is the aggressor” in the conflict and added: “President Putin violated the peace.”
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Trump and Macron’s ‘friendly’ meeting
Peace must allow Kyiv ‘sovereignty’
The French leader then said: “We want peace, he wants peace. We want peace swiftly, but we don’t want an agreement that is weak.”
“This peace must not mean a surrender of Ukraine or a ceasefire without guarantees,” he added. “It must allow for Ukrainian sovereignty and allow Ukraine to negotiate with other stakeholders regarding the issues that affect it.
“It is also a country in which we need to shoulder our responsibilities so that we ensure security and stability for Ukraine and for the entire region.
Image: Macron said any peace deal ‘must not mean a surrender of Ukraine’. Pic: Reuters
‘Get this war stopped’
At a news conference following the talks, Mr Macron said he “fully believes” there is a path forward in negotiations.
He also agreed “there is good reason for President Trump to re-engage with President Putin” – a week after the leaders had a 90-minute-long phone call.
Mr Trump added Russia would accept European troops in Ukraine as part of peacekeeping efforts, adding: “I specifically asked him (Putin) that question. He has no problem with it.”
He told reporters: “When I got here, one of the first calls I made was to Putin and it was made with great respect. They want to end this war.”
Image: Mr Macron ‘fully believes’ there is a path forward with peace talks after meeting with Mr Trump. Pic: AP
Mr Trump then explained he wants to “get this war stopped,” whether that’s through a ceasefire or a direct agreement – but when asked if Ukraine should give up territory as part of any deal, he said: “We’ll see.”
The news conference came as Mr Putin said he is ready to discuss Russia cutting its defence budget alongside the US, saying a mutual drop of 50% would be a “good idea”.
The Russian president also touted a possible economic deal with the US, offering talks on a deal for its own rare earth metal supplies and for the sale of aluminium to American firms.
Just last week, in a bitter exchange of words, Mr Trump called Ukraine’s leader a “dictator” and said he “better move fast or he is not going to have a country left” after Mr Zelenskyy had accused him of living in a Russian-made “disinformation space”.
The US has abstained from a UN General Assembly vote on a resolution it drafted on the war in Ukraine after the body approved amendments proposed by European countries.
The vote took place on the same day the 193-member assembly approved a competing European-backed resolution from Ukraine which demanded Russia immediately withdraw from the country.
The duelling proposals reflect the tensions that have emerged between the US and Ukraine after Donald Trump suddenly opened negotiations with Russia in a bid to quickly resolve the conflict.
It also underscores the strain in the US’ relationship with Europe over the Trump administration’s decision to engage with Moscow.
The US-drafted resolution, marking the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, had called for an end to the conflict but did not mention Moscow’s aggression.
It also made no mention of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
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However, it was amended after European nations said that it should include references to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the need for a lasting peace in line with the UN Charter.
It was also amended to include references to Ukraine’s sovereignty.
The amended US-drafted resolutionwon 93 votes in favour, while 73 states abstained – including the US – and eight – including Russia – voted no.
Meanwhile, there were 93 votes in favour of theUkraine-backed resolution,while 65 abstained and 18 voted against it.
The UK, France and Germany were among the countries that voted in favour of the Ukraine-backed resolution, which called for a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace in Ukraine”.
The US, Russia, Belarus and North Korea were among those that opposed it.
Image: The US voted against Ukraine’s resolution. Pic: AP
The outcome marks a setback for the Trump administration in the UN General Assembly, whose resolutions are not legally binding but are seen as a barometer of world opinion.
However, the result also shows some diminished support for Ukraine – as more than 140 nations had voted to condemn Russia’s aggression in previous votes.
The United States had tried to pressure the Ukrainians to withdraw their resolution in favour of its proposal, according to a US official and a European diplomat.
US deputy ambassador Dorothy Shea, meanwhile, said multiple previous UN resolutions condemning Russia and demanding the withdrawal of Russian troops “have failed to stop the war,” which “has now dragged on for far too long and at far too terrible a cost to the people in Ukraine and Russia and beyond”.
“What we need is a resolution marking the commitment from all UN member states to bring a durable end to the war,” Ms Shea said.
Mr Zelenskyy responded by saying the US president was living in a Russian-made “disinformation space”.
Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron is at the White House holding talks with Mr Trump to discuss a peace plan for Ukraine.
At the start of the meeting, Mr Trump told reporters Russian President Vladimir Putin will accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of a potential deal to end the war in the country.
Mr Trump and Mr Macron have been meeting after the pair had earlier joined a call between G7 leaders.
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