‘Man, starting pitchers are getting PAID’: Winter meetings show it’s a good time to be an ace
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Alden Gonzalez, ESPN Staff Writer
DALLAS — The enormity of Juan Soto‘s contract — stretching 15 years and guaranteeing $765 million, not a penny of which is deferred — brought an initial jolt to Major League Baseball’s winter meetings on Sunday night. It was monumental and far-reaching, but it was also an outlier, given the uniqueness of landing one of history’s greatest hitters in his mid-20s. As the days passed, subsequent transactions took place and the offseason began to round into form, a more revealing trend emerged at the sprawling Hilton hotel that hosted baseball’s annual gathering earlier this week.
A prominent agent expressed it succinctly on Tuesday night, in the middle of an emptying lobby after a dizzying round of transactions.
“Man,” he said, “starting pitchers are getting paid.”
Hours earlier, Max Fried signed an eight-year, $218 million deal with the New York Yankees, blowing away the most reputable projections. Later, Nathan Eovaldi secured a three-year, $75 million contract to return to the Texas Rangers, more than doubling the guarantee of his prior deal in his mid-30s. And just a day prior, Alex Cobb, a 37-year-old who made three starts while dealing with a litany of injuries last season, cost the Detroit Tigers $15 million on a one-year deal — a sign that it wasn’t just the top starters getting paid, but the innings-eaters and the reclamation projects, too, age be damned.
Fried, Eovaldi and Cobb followed a path that had already been laid out by the likes of Blake Snell (five years, $182 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers), Luis Severino (three years, $67 million with the Athletics) and Matthew Boyd (two years, $29 million with the Chicago Cubs). All of them did better than expected. All of them triggered a fundamental question:
Why, at a time when starting pitchers have never been counted on less, are they more expensive than ever?
Executives, agents and coaches surveyed in the 72 hours that encompassed baseball’s winter meetings brought up an assortment of theories.
One general manager noted that starting pitchers who can consistently tackle five to six innings and 160 or so over the course of a six-month season aren’t any less important, even in an era of heavy bullpen usage — they’re simply more rare, triggering the type of demand that can escalate prices. Another pointed to the impact of big-market teams chasing top-tier free agents and how that has affected those below them. Another pointed specifically to the New York Mets, who handed Soto a record-breaking contract but might have set a tone in a different way — by signing Frankie Montas earlier this month to a two-year, $34 million deal that was viewed in some circles as an overpay.
But most of the conversations came back to the rapid rate of arm injuries that have plagued the industry and made teams hyper-paranoid about their starting pitching depth.
These days, even more so than before, enough is never enough.
“Teams used to feel good if they could go into a season with, I’d say, seven or eight guys they can count on to start games at the major league level, at least in some capacity,” said one front office executive. “Now that number is like 11.”
The approach taken by two of the sport’s most successful franchises illustrates that.
The Yankees already boasted a solid fivesome of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman and Clarke Schmidt — but Fried was their obvious pivot after missing out on Soto, enough to cross a $200 million threshold few foresaw for the soon-to-be-31-year-old left-hander. The Dodgers, who beat the Yankees in the World Series, were set to return a rotation composed of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, while backed by a pitching pipeline that has become the envy of the sport — and yet they zeroed in on Snell at the onset of the offseason.
“I know that as a team, we’ve felt it more acutely,” said Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes, whose club suffered through an array of pitching injuries in 2024. “You feel like you have depth coming in, and sometimes it maintains and sometimes it doesn’t. It’s a little scary of an unknown.”
The increase in pitcher injuries has been raising alarm bells for the better part of a decade, but a presentation at this week’s winter meetings placed that in a new light. The sport’s 30 managers gathered in a conference room on Wednesday morning as MLB officials guided them through key findings from a yearlong study of pitcher injuries that involved input from more than 200 experts in a variety of roles. One of the slides showed that surgeries to repair damaged ulnar collateral ligaments at the minor league level had basically doubled over the past 10 years. Not only are current major league pitchers breaking down, so is the foundation behind them.
Said one manager in attendance: “It was stunning.”
The trade market hadn’t reached full tilt by the time most of the industry’s agents and executives boarded their flights back home on Wednesday afternoon. But the expectation was that it would soon pick up, particularly as it relates to starting pitchers. Teams seeking alternatives to the higher free agent prices have expressed interest in Dylan Cease, Pablo López, Framber Valdez, Jesús Luzardo and Luis Castillo, names that should gain more traction after Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet was dealt to the Boston Red Sox for an impressive haul of prospects.
Two of the Red Sox’s division rivals, the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays, are still searching for frontline starting pitching. So are the Mets and the San Francisco Giants, two of the offseason’s busiest teams. So are many others.
A dozen starting pitchers have signed for a combined $788.5 million through the first five weeks of this offseason, already about 63% of the spending in that department from last year — with Corbin Burnes still expected to exceed $200 million and Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander among the roughly 75 other starters available. And though the player pool is widely considered to be better than it was a year ago, and many executives will caution that early deals tend to be inflated, setting up the possibility that those who remain don’t do so well, one thing is clear:
Starting pitching, famously out of vogue in the modern game, is still at a premium.
The Stars were the third team to clinch a playoff berth this season, and the most likely outcome for Dallas is earning the No. 2 seed in the Central Division and squaring off with the Colorado Avalanche in the first round.
But the Stars still have a chance to claim the division title — and a first-round matchup with one of the wild-card teams.
Heading into Monday night, the Stars are six points behind the Winnipeg Jets at 106-100, and one point behind in regulation wins (40-39). If Dallas is going to catch Winnipeg, it should definitely win Monday’s game against the Seattle Kraken (10 p.m., ESPN+). The Kraken were eliminated from playoff contention Saturday night.
Looking beyond Monday, the Stars play games against current playoff teams just twice, and one of those is a “four-point game” against the Jets on April 10. For comparison, the Jets face current playoff teams five times in their remaining schedule.
The chances aren’t super high that the Stars get this done; the Stathletes projection model gives the Jets an 82.8% chance of winning the Central title, compared with 17.2% for the Stars. But by winning games that they should win against non-playoff teams — and getting some help from Winnipeg’s opponents — they can definitely pull this off.
There are less than three weeks left until April 17, and we’ll help you track it all with the NHL playoff watch. As we traverse the final stretch, we’ll provide details on all the playoff races, along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2025 NHL draft lottery.
Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.
Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Yesterday’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick
Current playoff matchups
Eastern Conference
A1 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A3 Florida Panthers
M1 Washington Capitals vs. WC2 New York Rangers
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 New Jersey Devils
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues
C2 Dallas Stars vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers
Monday’s games
Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available to stream on ESPN+ (local blackout restrictions apply).
Minnesota Wild at New Jersey Devils, 7 p.m. (NHLN)
Nashville Predators at Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
Calgary Flames at Colorado Avalanche, 8:30 p.m.
Dallas Stars at Seattle Kraken, 10 p.m.
Sunday’s scoreboard
Montreal Canadiens 4, Florida Panthers 2
Buffalo Sabres 8, Washington Capitals 5
Winnipeg Jets 3, Vancouver Canucks 1
Utah Hockey Club 5, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Ottawa Senators 0 (OT)
Carolina Hurricanes 6, New York Islanders 4
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Los Angeles Kings 8, San Jose Sharks 1
Expanded standings
Atlantic Division
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 104.2
Next game: vs. FLA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ NYI (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: @ MTL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 84
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 94.4
Next game: vs. BUF (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 86.5
Next game: vs. FLA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 30%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: @ STL (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 3.3%
Tragic number: 16
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 76.5
Next game: vs. WSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 76.4
Next game: @ OTT (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 10
Metro Division
Points: 103
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 115.7
Next game: @ BOS (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 94
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 105.6
Next game: vs. WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 85
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 7
Points pace: 92.9
Next game: vs. MIN (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.7%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 85.3
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 33.1%
Tragic number: 17
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 85.4
Next game: vs. NSH (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 19.6%
Tragic number: 19
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 83.1
Next game: vs. TB (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 14.4%
Tragic number: 16
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 77.6
Next game: @ STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 9
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 7
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: vs. NSH (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 7
Central Division
Points: 106
Regulation wins: 40
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 117.5
Next game: @ LA (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 100
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 112.3
Next game: @ SEA (Monday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 93
Regulation wins: 38
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 8
Points pace: 103.1
Next game: vs. CGY (Monday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 8
Points pace: 96.4
Next game: @ NJ (Monday)
Playoff chances: 92.3%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 87
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 7
Points pace: 95.1
Next game: vs. DET (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 94.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 86.4
Next game: vs. CGY (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.4%
Tragic number: 8
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 69.6
Next game: @ PHI (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 56.5
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Pacific Division
Points: 98
Regulation wins: 42
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 9
Points pace: 110.1
Next game: vs. EDM (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 91
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 9
Points pace: 102.2
Next game: vs. WPG (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.8%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 89
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 9
Points pace: 100.0
Next game: @ VGK (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 99.4%
Tragic number: N/A
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 89.8
Next game: vs. SEA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 5.8%
Tragic number: 11
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 10
Points pace: 91.1
Next game: @ COL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 7.3%
Tragic number: 14
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 80.9
Next game: vs. SJ (Tuesday)
Playoff chances: 0.1%
Tragic number: 4
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 8
Points pace: 75.4
Next game: vs. DAL (Monday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 9
Points pace: 55.0
Next game: @ ANA (Tuesday
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E
Note: An “x” means that the team has clinched a playoff berth. An “e” means that the team has been eliminated from playoff contention.
Race for the No. 1 pick
The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team can move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process are here. Matthew Schaefer, a defenseman for the OHL’s Erie Otters, is No. 1 on the draft board.
Points: 49
Regulation wins: 14
Points: 51
Regulation wins: 18
Points: 62
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 68
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 19
Points: 69
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 71
Regulation wins: 20
Points: 72
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 74
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 75
Regulation wins: 23
Points: 77
Regulation wins: 32
Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Points: 81
Regulation wins: 26
ARLINGTON, Texas — Boston Red Sox designated hitter Rafael Devers became the first major leaguer to strike out 12 times in a season’s first four games.
Devers went 0-for-4 with two more strikeouts Sunday in Boston’s 3-2 loss to the Texas Rangers.
Devers’ latest mark for futility came a day after he became the first big leaguer to be fanned 10 times in the first three games of a season.
He’s 0-for-16, though he did draw a two-out walk in the ninth Sunday to keep the inning alive and put the potential tying run in scoring position.
The 12 strikeouts broke the previous record of 11 in the first four games, which had been done four times previously since 1901, according to SportRadar.
Brent Rooker of the Athletics struck out 11 times to open last season. The others were Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. in 2020, Minnesota’s Byron Buxton in 2017 and Houston’s Brett Wallace in 2013.
Devers is now solely the Red Sox DH after their offseason acquisition of third baseman Alex Bregman.
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