The economy remained in reverse gear during October, according to official figures covering the month ahead of the government’s first budget.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said output fell 0.1% following the 0.1% decline recorded for the previous month.
It marked the first time since the COVID pandemic that the economy had shrunk for two consecutive months.
The figures showed zero growth in the powerhouse services sector, with manufacturing and construction declining at a pace of 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.
Economists had expected a positive headline figure.
The data adds to the picture of a far more jittery economy during the second half of the year, in the wake of the general election.
Critics blame the government, accusing Sir Keir Starmer and his chancellor Rachel Reeves of a spectacular, early, own goal that spooked the public and businesses alike.
After three weeks in office, both warned of a “tough” budget to come on 30 October due to an inherited “£22bn black hole” in the public finances that a snap Treasury review had uncovered.
There has been strong evidence since then of a hit to sentiment as a result of the warning in data covering things like consumer spending and wage awards.
The economy is now 0.1% smaller than it was before Labour came to power.
It’s been almost six months but the new government is yet to deliver on its promise to turbocharge economic growth.
The chancellor will today urge the public to be patient with her. The message will be: It will take a lot longer than six months to revive an economy that has been stagnating for a decade.
How confident should we be in her plan? On the one hand, falling inflation and interest rates should provide a more fertile environment for consumer spending and business investment.
The government’s plan to increase public investment should also boost demand in the economy and, if successful, lead to longer term sustained growth.
Yet, there are a number of risks. A big increase in business taxes next year will weigh on employment and growth.
Pubs, restaurants and retailers are already stagnating and that was before they reacted to the budget, which at the end of the month slapped them with a big increase in employers’ national insurance contributions..
The latest figures show output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.6% in October 2024, following growth of 0.4% in September 2024. Manufacturing also shrank by 0.6% as, across the economy, businesses went in ‘wait and see’ mode ahead of the budget. The risk is they didn’t like what they saw in the budget.
Then there is Trump and the risk of tariffs. Britain could escape the worst of the cross hairs but we will have to wait and see. If things go against us, it’s very possible that the Bank of England could soon start worrying more about weak growth than inflation, possibly a prelude – as we’ve seen in Europe – to a faster pace of interest rate cuts.
The economy, which had been the fastest-growing in the G7 between January and June, grew by 0.1% during the third quarter of the year.
Economists had been expecting a similar performance in the final three months of 2024 following a budget that largely spared working people additional pain but put businesses and those of wealthier means on the hook for extra taxes.
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5:34
CBI chief’s approach to budget tax shock
Business has since accused the chancellor of hurting the very working people she wants to protect as measures, such as higher employer National Insurance contributions, will only lead to weaker pay growth, fewer jobs and higher prices as additional costs are passed on.
Employers also argue that the extra tax burden, along with tougher employee rights legislation, will hurt investment at a time when Labour has prioritised growth in the economy.
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2:05
HMV owner slams budget ‘burden’
Ms Reeves said the figures were “disappointing”, but defended the budget.
She said: “We have put public finances back on a stable footing, capped the rate of corporation tax at the lowest level in the G7, established a £70bn National Wealth Fund to drive growth in our towns and cities, launched a 10-year infrastructure strategy and are creating pension mega funds to boost investment in British businesses, infrastructure and clean energy.”
The chancellor added: “We are determined to deliver economic growth as higher growth means increased living standards for everyone, everywhere.”
Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, said: “It is no wonder businesses are sounding the alarm.
“This fall in growth shows the stark impact of the chancellor’s decisions and continually talking down the economy.”
He went on to say that Labour was left “the fastest growing economy in the G7”, adding: “Because of their decisions, growth is now under serious pressure.
“The impact will be felt by families through higher taxes, fewer jobs, higher prices and higher interest rates.”
The government has shifted the growth emphasis to the public sector through a jump in investment in services such as the NHS.
Ms Reeves is borrowing more to help fund that and insists the budget was a one-off to help fix pressing problems that were unfunded by her predecessor.
The Bank of England has said that the reaction of business to the budget tax hikes is its main area of concern when judging the prospects for inflation and economic growth.
Financial markets are expecting four interest rate cuts next year but no change when policymakers meet for the final time in 2024 next week.
Commenting on today’s figures Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “October activity was held back by uncertainty ahead of the budget, with consumer and business confidence near recent lows.
“The fourth quarter could see a weaker pace of growth, as businesses come to terms with the higher tax burden announced at the budget as well as rising geopolitical uncertainties.
“Nevertheless, we expect higher public spending to lift GDP growth next year, with lower interest rates providing some boost to private sector demand.”
Shares in UK banks have fallen sharply on the back of a report which urges the chancellor to place their profits in her sights at the coming budget.
As Rachel Reeves stares down a growing deficit – estimated at between £20bn-£40bn heading into the autumn – the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said there was an opportunity for a windfall by closing a loophole.
It recommended a new levy on the interest UK lenders receive from the Bank of England, amounting to £22bn a year, on reserves held as a result of the Bank’s historic quantitative easing, or bond-buying, programme.
It was first introduced at the height of the financial crisis, in 2009.
The left-leaning think-tank said the money received by banks amounted to a subsidy and suggested £8bn could be taken from them annually to pay for public services.
It argued that the loss-making scheme – a consequence of rising interest rates since 2021 – had left taxpayers footing the bill unfairly as the Treasury has to cover any loss.
More on Rachel Reeves
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1:28
Why taxes might go up
The Bank recently estimated the total hit would amount to £115bn over the course of its lifetime.
The publication of the report coincided with a story in the Financial Times which spoke of growing fears within the banking sector that it was firmly in the chancellor’s sights.
Her first budget, in late October last year, put businesses on the hook for the bulk of its tax-raising measures.
Ms Reeves is under pressure to find more money from somewhere as she has ruled out breaking her own fiscal rules to help secure the cash she needs through heightened borrowing.
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1:17
Is Labour plotting a ‘wealth tax’?
Other measures understood to be under consideration include a wealth tax, new property tax and a shake-up that could lead to a replacement for council tax.
Analysts at Exane told clients in a note: “In the last couple of years, the chancellor has been protective of the banks and has avoided raising taxes.
“However, public finances may require additional cash and pressures for a bank tax from within the Labour party seem to be rising,” it concluded.
The investor flight saw shares in Lloyds and NatWest plunge by more than 5%. Those for Barclays were more than 4% lower at one stage.
A spokesperson for the Treasury said the best way to strengthen public finances was to speed up economic growth.
“Changes to tax and spend policy are not the only ways of doing this, as seen with our planning reforms,” they added.
The man dubbed “Britain’s most hated boss” for his controversial policy of sacking hundreds of seafarers and replacing them with cheaper agency staff is to quit.
Sky News can exclusively reveal that Peter Hebblethwaite, the chief executive of P&O Ferries, is leaving the company.
Sources said he had decided to resign for personal reasons.
Mr Hebblethwaite joined the ranks of Britain’s most notorious corporate figures in 2022 when P&O Ferries – a subsidiary of the giant Dubai-based ports operator DP World – said it was sacking 800 staff with immediate effect – some of whom learned their fate via a video message.
The policy, which Mr Hebblethwaite defended to MPs during subsequent select committee hearings, erupted into a national scandal, prompting changes in the law to give workers greater protection.
Under the new legislation, the government plans to tighten collective redundancy requirements for operators of foreign vessels.
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In a statement issued in response to a request from Sky News, a P&O Ferries spokesperson said: “Peter Hebblethwaite has communicated his intention to resign from his position as chief executive officer to dedicate more time to family matters.
Image: Peter Hebblethwaite gives evidence to a committee of MPs in 2022. Pic: PA
“P&O Ferries extends its gratitude to Peter Hebblethwaite for his contributions as CEO over the past four years.
“During his tenure the company navigated the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, initiated a path towards financial stability, and introduced the world’s first large double-ended hybrid ferries on the Dover-Calais route, thereby enhancing sustainability.
“We extend our best wishes to him for his future endeavours.”
A source close to the company said it anticipated making an announcement on Mr Hebblethwaite’s successor in the near term.
A former executive at J Sainsbury, Greene King and Alliance Unichem, Mr Hebblethwaite joined P&O Ferries in 2019, before taking over as chief executive in November 2021.
Insiders claimed on Friday that he had “transformed” the business following the bitter blows dealt to its finances by the COVID-19 pandemic and – to some degree – by the impact of Britain’s exit from the European Union.
Image: A union protest is shown at the height of the mass sackings row in 2022
P&O Ferries carries 4.5 million passengers annually on routes between the UK and continental European ports including Calais and Rotterdam.
It also operates a route between Northern Ireland and Scotland, and is a major freight carrier.
The company’s losses soared during the pandemic, with DP World – its sole shareholder – supporting it through hundreds of millions of pounds in loans.
Its most recent accounts, which were significantly delayed, showed a significant reduction in losses in 2023 to just over £90m.
The reduction from the previous year’s figure of almost £250m was partly attributed to cost reduction exercises.
The accounts also showed that Mr Hebblethwaite received a pay package of £683,000, including a bonus of £183,000.
“I reflected on accepting that payment, but ultimately I did decide to accept it,” he told MPs.
“I do recognise it is not a decision that everybody would have made.”
The row over his pay was especially acute because of his admission that P&O Ferries’ lowest-paid seafarers received hourly pay of just £4.87.
Mr Hebblethwaite had argued since the mass sackings of 2022 that the company would have gone bust without the drastic cost-cutting that it entailed.
The company insisted at the time that those affected by the redundancies had been offered “enhanced” packages to leave.
Last October, the then transport secretary, Louise Haigh, said: “The mass sacking by P&O Ferries was a national scandal which can never be allowed to happen again,” adding that measures to protect seafarers from “rogue employers” would prevent a repetition.
“This issue has been ignored for over 2 years, but this new government is moving fast and bringing forward measures within 100 days,” Ms Haigh added.
“We are closing the legal loophole that P&O Ferries exploited when they sacked almost 800 dedicated seafarers and replaced them with low-paid agency workers and we are requiring operators to pay the equivalent of National Minimum Wage in UK waters.
“Make no mistake – this is good for workers and good for business.”
The minister’s description of P&O Ferries as “rogue”, and suggestion that consumers should boycott the company, sparked a row which threatened to overshadow the government’s International Investment Summit last October.
Sky News’s business and economics correspondent, Paul Kelso, revealed that DP World had withdrawn from participating in the event, and paused a £1bn investment announcement.
The company relented after Sir Keir Starmer publicly distanced the government from Ms Haigh’s characterisation of DP World.
Donald Trump has cancelled a loophole from today that had allowed consumers and businesses to be spared duties for sending low-value goods to the United States.
The so-called de minimis exemption had applied across the world before Trump 2.0 but the president has taken action – and the UK may soon follow suit – as part of his trade war.
The relief had allowed goods worth less than $800 (£595) to enter the US duty-free since 2016.
But now, low-cost packages face the same tariff rate as other, more expensive, goods.
The reasons for the latest bout of protectionism are numerous and the ramifications are country and purpose specific.
What is changing?
It was no accident that China was the first destination to be slapped with this rule change.
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The duty exemption on low-value Chinese goods was ended in May as US retailers, in fact those across the Western world, complained bitterly that they were being undercut by cheap clothing, accessories and household goods shipped by the likes of Shein and Temu.
From today, Mr Trump is expanding the end of the de minimis rule to the rest of the world.
Why is Trump doing this?
Image: Number of de minimis packages imported in to the US since 2018
The president is not acting purely to protect US businesses.
More duties mean more money for his tariff treasure chest, bolstering the goodies already pouring in from his base and reciprocal tariffs imposed on trading partners globally this year.
The Trump administration has also called out “deceptive shipping practices, illegal material and duty circumvention”.
It also believes many parcels claiming to contain low-value goods have been used to fuel the country’s supplies of fentanyl, with the importation of the illegal drug being used by the president as a reason for his wider trade war against allies including Canada.
How will it apply?
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1:35
New tariffs threaten fresh trade chaos
Under the new rules, only letters and personal gifts worth less than $100 (£74) will still be free of import duties.
Charges will depend on the tariff regime facing the country from where the goods are sent.
Fox example, a parcel containing products worth $600 would raise $180 in extra duties when sent from a country facing a 30% tariff rate.
It has sparked chaos in many countries, with postal services in places including Japan, Germany and Australia refusing to accept many items for delivery to the US until the practicalities of the new regime become clearer.
What about the UK?
All goods not meeting the £74 exemption criteria now face a 10% charge because that is the baseline tariff the US has slapped on imports from the UK.
We were spared, if you remember, higher reciprocal tariffs under the so-called “trade deal”.
How will the process work?
All shipping and delivery companies will be wading through the changes, with the big international operators such as DHL, FedEx and the like all promising to navigate the challenge.
Royal Mail said on Thursday that it would be the first international postal service to have a dedicated operation.
It said consumers could use its new postal delivery duties paid (PDDP) services both online and at Post Offices.
But it explained that business customers faced different restrictions to individuals.
Businesses would be charged a handling fee per parcel to cover additional costs and duties would be calculated based on where items were originally manufactured.
While business account customers could be handed an invoice for the duties, it explained that consumers would have to pay at the point of buying postage.
No customs declaration would be required, it concluded, for personal correspondence.
Is the US alone in doing this?
The answer is no, but it remains a fairly widespread relief globally.
The European Union, for example, removed de minimis breaks back in 2021, making all e-commerce imports to the bloc subject to VAT.
It is also now planning to introduce a fee of €2 on goods worth €150 or less to cover the costs of customs processing.
Should the UK do the same?
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9:00
July: The value of ‘de minimis’ imports into Britain
The UK has been under pressure for many years to follow suit and drop its own £135 duty-free threshold as retailers battle the cheap e-commerce competition from China we mentioned earlier.
A review was announced by the chancellor in April.
Sky News revealed in July how the total declared trade value of de minimis imports into the UK in the 2024-25 financial year was £5.9bn – a 53% increase on the previous 12-month period.
Any rise in revenue would be welcomed, not only by UK retailers, but by Rachel Reeves too as she looks to fill a renewed black hole in the public finances.