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The economy remained in reverse gear during October, according to official figures covering the month ahead of the government’s first budget.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said output fell 0.1% following the 0.1% decline recorded for the previous month.

It marked the first time since the COVID pandemic that the economy had shrunk for two consecutive months.

The figures showed zero growth in the powerhouse services sector, with manufacturing and construction declining at a pace of 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

Economists had expected a positive headline figure.

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The data adds to the picture of a far more jittery economy during the second half of the year, in the wake of the general election.

Critics blame the government, accusing Sir Keir Starmer and his chancellor Rachel Reeves of a spectacular, early, own goal that spooked the public and businesses alike.

After three weeks in office, both warned of a “tough” budget to come on 30 October due to an inherited “£22bn black hole” in the public finances that a snap Treasury review had uncovered.

There has been strong evidence since then of a hit to sentiment as a result of the warning in data covering things like consumer spending and wage awards.

SLOWING ECONOMY MAY BOLSTER PACE OF RATE CUTS



Gurpreet Narwan

Business and economics correspondent

@gurpreetnarwan

The economy is now 0.1% smaller than it was before Labour came to power.

It’s been almost six months but the new government is yet to deliver on its promise to turbocharge economic growth.

The chancellor will today urge the public to be patient with her. The message will be: It will take a lot longer than six months to revive an economy that has been stagnating for a decade.

How confident should we be in her plan? On the one hand, falling inflation and interest rates should provide a more fertile environment for consumer spending and business investment.

The government’s plan to increase public investment should also boost demand in the economy and, if successful, lead to longer term sustained growth.

Yet, there are a number of risks. A big increase in business taxes next year will weigh on employment and growth.

Pubs, restaurants and retailers are already stagnating and that was before they reacted to the budget, which at the end of the month slapped them with a big increase in employers’ national insurance contributions..

The latest figures show output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.6% in October 2024, following growth of 0.4% in September 2024. Manufacturing also shrank by 0.6% as, across the economy, businesses went in ‘wait and see’ mode ahead of the budget. The risk is they didn’t like what they saw in the budget.

Then there is Trump and the risk of tariffs. Britain could escape the worst of the cross hairs but we will have to wait and see. If things go against us, it’s very possible that the Bank of England could soon start worrying more about weak growth than inflation, possibly a prelude – as we’ve seen in Europe – to a faster pace of interest rate cuts.

The economy, which had been the fastest-growing in the G7 between January and June, grew by 0.1% during the third quarter of the year.

Economists had been expecting a similar performance in the final three months of 2024 following a budget that largely spared working people additional pain but put businesses and those of wealthier means on the hook for extra taxes.

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CBI chief’s approach to budget tax shock

Business has since accused the chancellor of hurting the very working people she wants to protect as measures, such as higher employer National Insurance contributions, will only lead to weaker pay growth, fewer jobs and higher prices as additional costs are passed on.

Employers also argue that the extra tax burden, along with tougher employee rights legislation, will hurt investment at a time when Labour has prioritised growth in the economy.

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HMV owner slams budget ‘burden’

Ms Reeves said the figures were “disappointing”, but defended the budget.

She said: “We have put public finances back on a stable footing, capped the rate of corporation tax at the lowest level in the G7, established a £70bn National Wealth Fund to drive growth in our towns and cities, launched a 10-year infrastructure strategy and are creating pension mega funds to boost investment in British businesses, infrastructure and clean energy.”

The chancellor added: “We are determined to deliver economic growth as higher growth means increased living standards for everyone, everywhere.”

Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, said: “It is no wonder businesses are sounding the alarm.

“This fall in growth shows the stark impact of the chancellor’s decisions and continually talking down the economy.”

He went on to say that Labour was left “the fastest growing economy in the G7”, adding: “Because of their decisions, growth is now under serious pressure.

“The impact will be felt by families through higher taxes, fewer jobs, higher prices and higher interest rates.”

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The government has shifted the growth emphasis to the public sector through a jump in investment in services such as the NHS.

Ms Reeves is borrowing more to help fund that and insists the budget was a one-off to help fix pressing problems that were unfunded by her predecessor.

The Bank of England has said that the reaction of business to the budget tax hikes is its main area of concern when judging the prospects for inflation and economic growth.

Financial markets are expecting four interest rate cuts next year but no change when policymakers meet for the final time in 2024 next week.

Commenting on today’s figures Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “October activity was held back by uncertainty ahead of the budget, with consumer and business confidence near recent lows.

“The fourth quarter could see a weaker pace of growth, as businesses come to terms with the higher tax burden announced at the budget as well as rising geopolitical uncertainties.

“Nevertheless, we expect higher public spending to lift GDP growth next year, with lower interest rates providing some boost to private sector demand.”

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Donald Trump tries to negotiate TikTok sale on live TV as he defends Capitol riot pardons

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Donald Trump tries to negotiate TikTok sale on live TV as he defends Capitol riot pardons

Donald Trump has attempted to negotiate a potential TikTok sale on live television, in what was supposed to be an announcement about investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

The US president was holding a news conference about a $500bn (£405bn) investment in AI infrastructure in the country, but was questioned about a range of topics.

At one point he attempted to negotiate the sale of TikTok with Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, who is said to be worth more than $204bn (£165bn).

President Donald Trump announced an investment in AI infrastructure and took questions on a range of topics.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria
Image:
President Donald Trump announced an investment in AI infrastructure and took questions on a range of topics.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria

Mr Trump also had to defend some of his actions just one day into his second term.

When the topic of TikTok was raised, Mr Trump said he was “open” to his close friend Elon Musk buying the app, adding: “I would be, if he wanted to buy it. I’d like Larry [Ellison] to buy it too.”

He continued: “I have the right to make a deal, the deal I’m thinking about, Larry let’s negotiate in front of the media.

“The deal I think is this. I’ve met with the owners of TikTok, the big owners, it’s worthless if it doesn’t get a permit… with a permit it’s worth like a trillion dollars.

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“What I’m thinking of saying to someone is buy it and give half to the US, half, and we’ll give you a permit… the US will be the ultimate partner and the US will make it very worthwhile for them.”

“Sounds like a good deal to me Mr President,” Oracle co-founder Mr Ellison said, when asked by the president about the offer.

During the press conference, Mr Trump also said he received a “very nice letter” from the outgoing Joe Biden.

“It was a little bit of an inspirational type letter, joy, do a good job, important, very important the job is, I think it was a nice letter, I think I should let people see it… I appreciated the letter,” he said.

Capitol riot pardons

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Trump addresses Capitol riot pardons

As part of a blitz of executive orders Mr Trump signed on Monday, he issued pardons for more than 1,500 people involved in the Capitol riot – including the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers leaders.

When asked how he justified pardoning convicted violent rioters, some of whom attacked police, he said: “I am the friend of police more than any president that has been in this office.

“They’ve been given a pardon, I thought their sentences were ridiculous and excessive.”

When further questioned over the words of his vice president JD Vance, who said no violent rioters would be pardoned, Mr Trump claimed they had “served years in jail and murderers don’t even go to jail in this country”.

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Across the campaign trail, Mr Trump has repeatedly raised the prospect of using tariffs against other countries.

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But for the first time, he gave a date for potentially bringing them in.

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It’s the end of Donald Trump’s second full day as president.

It feels like rather longer. Plenty has happened. This is the future.

He promised he’d get down to business and so he did. It’s been hard to know which way to look; what to focus on.

President Biden preferred short days. President Trump chooses unpredictable days. He thrives on them; he thrives on surprise.

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He vowed to hit the European Union (EU) with tariffs and said his administration was discussing imposing an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China from 1 February because, he claimed, fentanyl was being sent from China to Mexico and Canada, then on to the US.

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OpenAI's Sam Altman speaks at Tuesday's press conference next to Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and SoftBank chief executive Masayoshi Son.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria
Image:
OpenAI’s Sam Altman speaks alongside Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria

“The European Union is very, very bad to us, so they’re going to be in for tariffs. It’s the only way… you’re going to get fairness,” he said.

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Borrowing hits a four-year high for December

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Borrowing hits a four-year high for December

The Treasury borrowed more than expected last month to record the highest December sum for four years, official figures have shown, with higher debt interest payments adding to the bill.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a net borrowing figure for December of £17.8bn when a sum just above £14bn had been expected by economists.

It left public sector net borrowing £10.1bn up on the same month last year and £8.9bn higher than at the same point in the last financial year but still within the range expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Borrowing is on the up amid a budget-led drive for public sector investment, but the ONS data showed an £8.3bn debt interest bill – the third-highest December total on record.

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The report said that higher bill was mainly explained by shifts in the rate of inflation linked to the borrowing.

A £1.7bn payment for the repurchase of military dwellings added to the total December figure.

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The data was revealed as Chancellor Rachel Reeves attends the World Economic Forum in Davos for a series of meetings with global business leaders in a bid to showcase the UK.

There is a chill, however, around the UK’s immediate economic prospects with investors recently piling pressure on her stewardship of the public finances by demanding higher risk premiums to hold UK government debt in the form of bonds, known as gilts.

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Wage growth and jobless rate rising

Long-term borrowing costs hit highs not seen since 1998 earlier this month, with the 30-year UK gilt yield still above 5%.

It ticked up by eight basis points in the wake of the ONS report being released.

The first six months in charge of the public finances have proved a baptism of fire for the chancellor, who promised during the election campaign to make economic growth her top priority.

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‘We need to grow our economy’

But she and the prime minister have been subsequently accused of shattering confidence through warnings of a “tough” budget ahead due to an alleged black hole in the public finances inherited from the Tories.

It was measured at £22bn and her fiscal statement on 30 October put business mainly on the hook for £40bn of tax increases announced.

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How the UK ranks as an investment destination

The economy is estimated to have largely flatlined during the second half of last year, with major employers warning that investment, jobs and pay growth ahead are under threat to help offset the impact of the additional costs due from April when tax hikes, including from employer national insurance contributions, take effect.

They have also stated that higher prices for consumers will also form part of the mix.

Employment figures released on Tuesday suggested that firms were already taking action.

Data from HM Revenue & Customs showed the number of payrolled employees was estimated to have fallen by 47,000 during the 12 months to December – the biggest drop since November 2020.

Economists see economic growth being supported this year by public sector investment announced in the budget.

The big question mark is over the contribution from the private sector.

Jessica Barnaby, deputy director for public sector finances at the ONS, said: “At almost £18bn, borrowing last month was the third highest in any December on record.

“Compared with December 2023, spending on public services, benefits, debt interest and capital transfers were all up, while an increase in tax receipts was partially offset by a reduction in national insurance contributions, following the rate cuts earlier in 2024.”

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said of the data: “Economic stability is vital for our number one mission of delivering growth, that’s why our fiscal rules are non-negotiable and why we will have an iron grip on the public finances.

“Through our spending review we will interrogate every line of government spending for the first time in 17 years. We’ll root out waste to ensure every penny of taxpayer’s money is spent productively and helps deliver our Plan for Change.”

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Chair of UK’s competition regulator removed by government

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Chair of UK's competition regulator removed by government

The chair of the UK’s competition regulator has been removed from his role by the government, amid its push for growth.

Marcus Bokkerink, the head of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), has been removed from his post by the business secretary.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves met with regulators last week to impress upon them the centrality of economic growth to their activities.

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The CMA oversees deal-making and briefly paused the high-profile merger of Microsoft and gaming giant Activision-Blizzard.

Mr Bokkerink, a former senior partner at one of the world’s biggest consulting firms, was appointed in 2022 by then business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng. He could have served a five-year term.

A government source told Sky News: “This is a signal that we’re serious about changing the culture of regulation in order to get growth. The government wants to show it is serious about investment.”

The removal of the CMA chief comes as Ms Reeves and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, who took the decision, arrived in Davos to court overseas investors at the annual World Economic Forum.

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