Concessions on welfare are being discussed with rebel MPs ahead of a crunch vote next week, Sir Keir Starmer has confirmed.

The prime minister opened a statement about the NATO summit he has just returned from with a nod to the troubles he is facing at home.

Politics Live: PM offers olive branch to Labour rebels ahead of pivotal vote

Speaking in the Commons he said all colleagues want to get welfare reform right and “so do I”.

He added: “We want to see reform implemented with Labour values of fairness. That conversation will continue in the coming days.”

Sir Keir faces a difficult task as several MPs have told Sky News they are “sticking to their guns” after frantic calls from cabinet ministers on Wednesday failed to bring them on side.

One MP from the 2024 intake said: “Many are sticking to their guns. It’s now become more than welfare. They were too heavy with their calls this week and pressure on back benches.”

Another MP accused Number 10 and the prime minister of showing “utter contempt” towards the rebels’ concerns and said this “is only annoying people more”.

The Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill aims to shave £5bn off the welfare budget by 2030.

This includes restricting eligibility for the personal independence payment (pip), the main disability payment in England, and limit the sickness-related element of universal credit.

The government’s own figures show 250,000 people could be pushed into poverty, including 50,000 children, because of the changes.

Ministers say this will be offset by plans to get more people into work, but while lots of MPs agree with that in principle they say it’s not clear how this will be achieved.

What are the rebels calling for?

More than 120 Labour MPs have signed a “reasoned amendment” arguing that disabled people have not been properly consulted and further scrutiny of the changes is needed.

The government initially stuck to its guns amid the growing disquiet.

But while outwardly confident, Sky News learnt that cabinet ministers were ringing MPs asking them to take their name off the amendment and warning of a potential leadership contest or general election if the government loses the vote on Tuesday.

What concessions could be reached?

Ministers have since hinted at attempts to reach a compromise, but it’s not clear what sort of concessions would satisfy the bills’ critics.

Sky News understands there has been discussions about watering down the changes to pip.

Under current plans, people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify for the daily living element instead of fewer points spread across a range of tasks, as is currently the case.

Ministers have discussed lowering the new criteria to three points, but one MP told Sky News this is “still unacceptable” as it would not greatly reduce the number of people set to lose out.

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Another MP said they had not heard anything concrete on concessions yet, but added: “Frankly, personally, this has been so badly mishandled that short of pulling the bill and bringing it back later in the year following the impact assessment and with amendments, I don’t think my position will change going in to Tuesday at this point.”

Timeline for debate ‘unbelievable’

MPs are also annoyed that if the legislation clears the first hurdle it will then face only a few hours’ examination rather than days or weeks in front of a committee tasked with looking at the bill.

Lucy Powell, the leader of the House of Commons, has said following the second reading and vote on Tuesday 1 July, the bill’s remaining stages will take place in a Commons debate on 9 July.

She said the vote next week is for the principles to be considered, with the details to be “discussed and amended” at the next stages.

This appears to suggest the government is asking MPs to back the bill on Tuesday as a show of agreement on the principle of reform, with a promise that changes could be made later.

But it’s not clear whether this strategy will work given one of the rebels’ main concerns is that the bill is being rushed through.

One MP said: “The new line appears to be we all agree on the principle of reform so back at second reading and amend at remaining stages.

“One single day [for] all other stages of the bill is unbelievable.”

The Reform Party is on track to get the most seats if an election took place this year – with combined support for the Conservatives and Labour collapsing to less than half of the national vote, new in-depth polling suggests.

Analysts at YouGov have carried out their first Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) poll since the last general election. The research is based on thousands of people, and links voters and characteristics to help with its projection.

It is not a forecast, but an estimate of what could happen. The next election is not set to happen until 2029.

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This is the first such piece of research published by YouGov since the last general election, and is more in-depth than standard polling where people are just asked who they want to vote for.

With a sample size of 11,500 people, it found that if a general election were to happen tomorrow, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK would win 271 seats – the most of any party.

Labour would secure just 178 seats, less than half of the 411 it won last year.

The Tories would fall to fourth place behind the Liberal Democrats, with just 46 Conservative MPs projected.

The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, would gain nine extra seats to build a Commons caucus of 81 MPs, while the SNP would once again be the largest party in Scotland.

Both the Greens and Plaid Cymru would gain three seats each to both hold seven slots in parliament.

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If this scenario were to materialise, it would mean a coalition government would be needed, as no one party would have a majority.

It is unclear what any such coalition would look like. If Reform and the Conservatives teamed up, they would only have 317 seats – short of the 325 needed.

Theresa May won 317 seats in 2017, and attempted to govern with the support of the Northern Irish DUP support.

YouGov said: “Reform’s meteoric rise to becoming comfortably the largest party in a hung parliament is driven by impressive performances right across the country – including in Scotland.”

The two major political parties of the last century would between them have just 224 seats, fewer than Reform is set to take by itself.

Possibility of rainbow coalition

Labour and the Conservatives would together have the support of just 41% of voters – down from 59% last year.

The report released by YouGov said: “That a clear majority would now vote for someone other than the two established main parties of British politics is a striking marker of just how far the fragmentation of the voting public has gone over the past decade.”

It added: “According to our data and methods, 26% of voters would opt for Reform UK, 23% for Labour, 18% for the Conservatives, 15% the Liberal Democrats, 11% the Greens, 3% the SNP, 1% Plaid, and 2% for other parties and independent candidates.”

According to YouGov, Reform came out top of the polls in 99% of their simulations, with the rest having Labour at the top.

Some 97% of simulations had a hung parliament – where no one party has a majority – as the outcome.

In around 9% of simulations, Reform and the Conservatives have enough seats together to form a government, while in only “a tiny fraction” do Labour and the Lib Dems have enough together to govern.

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YouGov says “rainbow style coalition possibilities do appear”.

“For instance, combining the Labour, Liberal Democrat, and SNP totals produces a majority in just 3% of simulations.
“Adding the Greens brings this figure to 11%, while adding Plaid pushes it up to 26%.”