Business

Five charts that explain why water bills are about to go up

Published

7 months ago

December 16, 2024

admin

This is a crucial week for the water industry.

Regulator Ofwat will on Thursday give its “final determination” on how much bills will rise over the next five years.

Before then, Britain’s largest company Thames Water hopes to win court approval for a £3bn bridging loan to stop it running out of cash in the spring.

Together they amount to the greatest test of the water system, the only fully privatised network in the world.

To understand how we got here, and what might happen next, it pays to go back to the beginning.

In 1989, 10 state-owned regional water and sewage companies in England and Wales were sold off by Margaret Thatcher’s government, raising £7bn for the Treasury. The companies were sold debt-free but never intended to stay that way.

The rationale was that the private sector could raise the billions required to upgrade the Victorian sewage network, and fund it from customer bills, so the state didn’t have to.

So borrowing was always part of the plan and, as of this year, the companies have accrued £70bn of net debt, at a ratio to equity (gearing) of around 85%.

In water the problem with debt is not the total, but whether the companies can afford to service it, and what they did with the money.

The answer to the first question varies by operator, but water companies have poured billions into infrastructure and other investments. Adjusted for inflation, investment has run at between £4bn and a record £9bn last year, a total of £210bn in today’s prices, spending that has reduced leakage and improved water quality on some measures.

But it has not been enough to meet public expectation of basic services, of sewage control, or to the challenges of climate change and a growing population. To pick one example, the UK has not built a new reservoir since 1992.

At the same time, the companies’ shareholders have extracted dividends of £83bn (as calculated from Ofwat figures by the University of Greenwich and adjusted for inflation).

But like debt, dividends are a deliberate feature of the privatised system. Investors in any industry need to make a return.

Water UK, the companies’ trade body, says that since 2020, when the regulator began paying closer attention to payouts, dividends have averaged 2.7%.

The level of dividends and executive bonuses have become harder to defend with the emergence of the water industry’s dirty secret; sewage outflows.

These occur when the pipes shared by sewage and rainwater become inundated and, as a failsafe, are deliberately discharged into waterways through storm overflows to prevent sewage backing up into homes and businesses.

For decades the full extent of their use was unknown, with industry, regulators and the public in the dark because of the absence of monitoring. That has changed in the last decade, with full monitoring of almost 15,000 overflows in England revealing more than 460,000 sewage outflows in 2023.

Public outrage has pushed the issue up the political agenda, increasing the pressure on companies.

The water industry can point to some success in improving water quality since privatisation, with a reduction in levels of phosphorus and ammonia and 85% of bathing water classified as “good” or “excellent” by the Environment Agency.

But none of those are in rivers, where wild swimming, and the public activism that comes with it, is a recent phenomenon. And as public expectations for water quality rise, so do costs.

The challenge for the industry is that the cost of addressing the mess – whether physical, financial or of their own making – has just got more expensive.

Water was once a haven for long-term investors who enjoyed reliable returns from monopoly providers of an essential resource. For many years, water enjoyed a “halo effect” with cheaper borrowing costs than other industries.

This chart shows yields for water industry bonds, effectively the interest rate on their debt, compared to an index of other UK corporate bonds. While borrowing costs for everyone increased following the global inflation spike in early 2022, water remained cheaper.

In July 2023, after the full scale of the crisis at Thames Water emerged, the lines crossed over and water debt became more expensive. Water now has a premium attached, growing to almost a full percentage point by the end of this year.

And it is not just Thames. Ratings agencies have downgraded several water companies, damaging confidence in the entire sector. All companies face higher costs for borrowing, from the publicly listed Severn Trent, to distressed Thames, trying to secure terms on a £3bn bridging loan at an eye-watering 9.75%.

To meet these rising costs of capital water companies are now arguing that Ofwat should not only let them raise customer bills, but that investors need a greater return to commit money to the sector.

Luke Hickmore, investment director at abrdn, part of the Thames Water creditors’ group, said: “Water companies are facing a significantly higher cost of funding at the same time as seeing a growing need for infrastructure investment to maintain water and sewage systems.

“Investors have placed a risk premium on the entire industry because of uncertainty over whether the regulatory framework can support this increased investment need, and this drop in confidence has accelerated since Ofwat’s Draft Determination in July.

“Weaker companies with higher debt have suffered more, right at the time when many of them are looking for additional capital to meet the needs of customers and environment for the next five years and beyond.

“This financial strain and deteriorating investor support means higher cost of borrowing, which eventually feeds through to customer bills.”

All of which means your water bill is about to go up, though how much depends on where you live, and unlike other privatised utilities you can’t switch.

In July, Ofwat said bills could rise by an average of 21% to fund £88bn of spending, but the water companies are now asking for 40% to cover an investment of £107bn.

Wherever Ofwat draws its line this will be the most significant bill hike since privatisation. For decades the regulator and politicians were focused on affordability, leaving bills lower in real terms today than they were a decade ago.

But it is clearer than a chalk stream that this approach stored up trouble, and whether you blame poor management, corporate greed, slack regulation, political indifference, or the principle of privatisation itself, the industry faces a critical moment.

Business

UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

Published

15 hours ago

July 11, 2025

admin

UK economy figures not as bad as they look despite GDP fall, analysts say

The UK economy unexpectedly shrank in May, even after the worst of Donald Trump’s tariffs were paused, official figures showed.

A standard measure of economic growth, gross domestic product (GDP), contracted 0.1% in May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Rather than a fall being anticipated, growth of 0.1% was forecast by economists polled by Reuters as big falls in production and construction were seen.

It followed a 0.3% contraction in April, when Mr Trump announced his country-specific tariffs and sparked a global trade war.

A 90-day pause on these import taxes, which has been extended, allowed more normality to resume.

This was borne out by other figures released by the ONS on Friday.

Exports to the United States rose £300m but “remained relatively low” following a “substantial decrease” in April, the data said.

Overall, there was a “large rise in goods imports and a fall in goods exports”.

A ‘disappointing’ but mixed picture

It’s “disappointing” news, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said. She and the government as a whole have repeatedly said growing the economy was their number one priority.

“I am determined to kickstart economic growth and deliver on that promise”, she added.

But the picture was not all bad.

Growth recorded in March was revised upwards, further indicating that companies invested to prepare for tariffs. Rather than GDP of 0.2%, the ONS said on Friday the figure was actually 0.4%.

It showed businesses moved forward activity to be ready for the extra taxes. Businesses were hit with higher employer national insurance contributions in April.

The expansion in March means the economy still grew when the three months are looked at together.

While an interest rate cut in August had already been expected, investors upped their bets of a 0.25 percentage point fall in the Bank of England’s base interest rate.

Such a cut would bring down the rate to 4% and make borrowing cheaper.

Analysts from economic research firm Pantheon Macro said the data was not as bad as it looked.

“The size of the manufacturing drop looks erratic to us and should partly unwind… There are signs that GDP growth can rebound in June”, said Pantheon’s chief UK economist, Rob Wood.

Why did the economy shrink?

The drops in manufacturing came mostly due to slowed car-making, less oil and gas extraction and the pharmaceutical industry.

The fall was not larger because the services industry – the largest part of the economy – expanded, with law firms and computer programmers having a good month.

It made up for a “very weak” month for retailers, the ONS said.

Business

UK economy remains fragile – and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

Published

15 hours ago

July 11, 2025

admin

UK economy remains fragile - and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner

Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures are volatile and, on their own, don’t tell us much.

However, the picture emerging a year since the election of the Labour government is not hugely comforting.

This is a government that promised to turbocharge economic growth, the key to improving livelihoods and the public finances. Instead, the economy is mainly flatlining.

Output shrank in May by 0.1%. That followed a 0.3% drop in April.

Ministers were celebrating a few months ago as data showed the economy grew by 0.7% in the first quarter.

Hangover from artificial growth

However, the subsequent data has shown us that much of that growth was artificial, with businesses racing to get orders out of the door to beat the possible introduction of tariffs. Property transactions were also brought forward to beat stamp duty changes.

In April, we experienced the hangover as orders and industrial output dropped. Services also struggled as demand for legal and conveyancing services dropped after the stamp duty changes.

Many of those distortions have now been smoothed out, but the manufacturing sector still struggled in May.

Signs of recovery

Manufacturing output fell by 1% in May, but more up-to-date data suggests the sector is recovering.

“We expect both cars and pharma output to improve as the UK-US trade deal comes into force and the volatility unwinds,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said.

Meanwhile, the services sector eked out growth of 0.1%.

A 2.7% month-to-month fall in retail sales suppressed growth in the sector, but that should improve with hot weather likely to boost demand at restaurants and pubs.

Struggles ahead

It is unlikely, however, to massively shift the dial for the economy, the kind of shift the Labour government has promised and needs in order to give it some breathing room against its fiscal rules.

The economy remains fragile, and there are risks and traps lurking around the corner.

Concerns that the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is considering tax hikes could weigh on consumer confidence, at a time when businesses are already scaling back hiring because of national insurance tax hikes.

Inflation is also expected to climb in the second half of the year, further weighing on consumers and businesses.

Business

Government to announce new scheme as it ramps up AI adoption with backing from Facebook owner Meta

Published

21 hours ago

July 11, 2025

admin

Government to announce new scheme as it ramps up AI adoption with backing from Facebook owner Meta

The government is speeding up its adoption of AI to try and encourage economic growth – with backing from Facebook parent Meta.

It will today announce a $1m (£740,000) scheme to hire up to 10 AI “experts” to help with the adoption of the technology.

Sir Keir Starmer has spoken repeatedly about wanting to use the developing technology as part of his “plan for change” to improve the UK – with claims it could produce tens of billions in savings and efficiencies.

Politics live: Follow the latest updates

The government is hoping the new hires could help with problems like translating classified documents en masse, speeding up planning applications or help with emergency responses when power or internet outages occur.

The funding for the roles is coming from Meta, through the Alan Turing Institute. Adverts will go live next week, with the new fellowships expected to start at the beginning of 2026.

Technology Secretary Peter Kyle said: “This fellowship is the best of AI in action – open, practical, and built for public good. It’s about delivery, not just ideas – creating real tools that help government work better for people.”

He added: “The fellowship will help scale that kind of impact across government, and develop sovereign capabilities where the UK must lead, like national security and critical infrastructure.”

The projects will all be based on open source models, meaning there will be a minimal cost for the government when it comes to licensing.

Meta describes its own AI model, Llama, as open source, although there are questions around whether it truly qualifies for that title due to parts of its code base not being published.

The owner of Facebook has also sponsored several studies into the benefits of government adopting more open source AI tools.

Mr Kyle’s Department for Science and Technology has been working on its mission to increase the uptake of AI within government, including through the artificial intelligence “incubator”, under which these fellowships will fall.

The secretary of state has pointed to the success of Caddy – a tool that helps call centre workers search for answers in official documents faster – and its expanding use across government as an example of an AI success story.

He said the tool, developed with Citizens Advice, shows how AI can “boost productivity, improve decision-making, and support frontline staff”. A trial suggested it could cut waiting times for calls in half.

My Kyle also recently announced a deal with Google to provide tech support to government and assist with modernisation of data.

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈       

Joel Kaplan, the chief global affairs officer from Meta, said: “Open-source AI models are helping researchers and developers make major scientific and medical breakthroughs, and they have the potential to transform the delivery of public services too.

“This partnership with ATI will help the government access some of the brightest minds and the technology they need to solve big challenges – and to do it openly and in the public interest.”

Jean Innes, the head of the Alan Turing Institute, said: “These fellowships will offer an innovative way to match AI experts with the real world challenges our public services are facing.”