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Wages are rising far faster than expected after a year of slowing, official figures show.

Average pay rose sharply, by 5.2%, in the three months to October, according to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

A month earlier wages had been growing by 4.4% including bonuses and 4.9% excluding bonuses.

The increase comes as a surprise – economists polled by the Reuters news agency had forecast increases of 4.6% and 5%.

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It follows more than a year of slowing rises and comes thanks to private sector pay rises, the ONS said.

Private sector pay grew by 5.4%, compared to 4.3% for the public sector.

Good jobs news could be bad for mortgages

There was no change to the unemployment rate which remained at 4.3% as expected, the ONS also announced.

The number of people on UK payrolls fell by 35,000 to 30.4 million between October and November, although this is subject to revision.

The ONS added that the number of vacancies fell by 31,000 to 818,000 in the three months to November.

It’s good news for workers seeking improved pay but may be bad news for people remortgaging in the new year.

High wages had been a concern for interest rate-setters at the Bank of England who seek to bring down inflation, which rose to 2.3% in October.

Gora Suri, an economist at PwC UK, said the rise in earnings growth shows that inflation pressures remain in the economy.

He said: “Despite the considerable disinflation we have seen in the UK economy over the last two years, these underlying inflationary pressures remain.

“This means that the Bank of England is highly likely to keep interest rates on hold at its next meeting on Thursday, before resuming rate cuts in the new year.”

A note of caution

The accuracy of this ONS data has been called into question numerous times in recent months.

The exact numbers of people at work are unknown in part due to fewer people answering the phone when the ONS calls.

Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey described this as “a substantial problem”.

He said last month: “I do struggle to explain when my fellow [central bank] governors ask me why the British are particularly bad at this.

“The Bank, alongside other users, including the Treasury, continue to engage with the ONS on efforts to tackle these problems and improve the quality of UK labour market data.”

The ONS itself said it continued “to advise caution” when interpreting the data.

“Estimates of change should be treated with additional caution,” it said.

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Donald Trump tries to negotiate TikTok sale on live TV as he defends Capitol riot pardons

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Donald Trump tries to negotiate TikTok sale on live TV as he defends Capitol riot pardons

Donald Trump has attempted to negotiate a potential TikTok sale on live television, in what was supposed to be an announcement about investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure.

The US president was holding a news conference about a $500bn (£405bn) investment in AI infrastructure in the country, but was questioned about a range of topics.

At one point he attempted to negotiate the sale of TikTok with Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, who is said to be worth more than $204bn (£165bn).

President Donald Trump announced an investment in AI infrastructure and took questions on a range of topics.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria
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President Donald Trump announced an investment in AI infrastructure and took questions on a range of topics.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria

Mr Trump also had to defend some of his actions just one day into his second term.

When the topic of TikTok was raised, Mr Trump said he was “open” to his close friend Elon Musk buying the app, adding: “I would be, if he wanted to buy it. I’d like Larry [Ellison] to buy it too.”

He continued: “I have the right to make a deal, the deal I’m thinking about, Larry let’s negotiate in front of the media.

“The deal I think is this. I’ve met with the owners of TikTok, the big owners, it’s worthless if it doesn’t get a permit… with a permit it’s worth like a trillion dollars.

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“What I’m thinking of saying to someone is buy it and give half to the US, half, and we’ll give you a permit… the US will be the ultimate partner and the US will make it very worthwhile for them.”

“Sounds like a good deal to me Mr President,” Oracle co-founder Mr Ellison said, when asked by the president about the offer.

During the press conference, Mr Trump also said he received a “very nice letter” from the outgoing Joe Biden.

“It was a little bit of an inspirational type letter, joy, do a good job, important, very important the job is, I think it was a nice letter, I think I should let people see it… I appreciated the letter,” he said.

Capitol riot pardons

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Trump addresses Capitol riot pardons

As part of a blitz of executive orders Mr Trump signed on Monday, he issued pardons for more than 1,500 people involved in the Capitol riot – including the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers leaders.

When asked how he justified pardoning convicted violent rioters, some of whom attacked police, he said: “I am the friend of police more than any president that has been in this office.

“They’ve been given a pardon, I thought their sentences were ridiculous and excessive.”

When further questioned over the words of his vice president JD Vance, who said no violent rioters would be pardoned, Mr Trump claimed they had “served years in jail and murderers don’t even go to jail in this country”.

Tariff countdown

Across the campaign trail, Mr Trump has repeatedly raised the prospect of using tariffs against other countries.

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But for the first time, he gave a date for potentially bringing them in.

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It’s the end of Donald Trump’s second full day as president.

It feels like rather longer. Plenty has happened. This is the future.

He promised he’d get down to business and so he did. It’s been hard to know which way to look; what to focus on.

President Biden preferred short days. President Trump chooses unpredictable days. He thrives on them; he thrives on surprise.

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He vowed to hit the European Union (EU) with tariffs and said his administration was discussing imposing an additional 10% tariff on goods imported from China from 1 February because, he claimed, fentanyl was being sent from China to Mexico and Canada, then on to the US.

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OpenAI's Sam Altman speaks at Tuesday's press conference next to Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and SoftBank chief executive Masayoshi Son.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria
Image:
OpenAI’s Sam Altman speaks alongside Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son.
Pic: Reuters/Carlos Barria

“The European Union is very, very bad to us, so they’re going to be in for tariffs. It’s the only way… you’re going to get fairness,” he said.

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Borrowing hits a four-year high for December

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Borrowing hits a four-year high for December

The Treasury borrowed more than expected last month to record the highest December sum for four years, official figures have shown, with higher debt interest payments adding to the bill.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a net borrowing figure for December of £17.8bn when a sum just above £14bn had been expected by economists.

It left public sector net borrowing £10.1bn up on the same month last year and £8.9bn higher than at the same point in the last financial year but still within the range expected by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

Borrowing is on the up amid a budget-led drive for public sector investment, but the ONS data showed an £8.3bn debt interest bill – the third-highest December total on record.

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The report said that higher bill was mainly explained by shifts in the rate of inflation linked to the borrowing.

A £1.7bn payment for the repurchase of military dwellings added to the total December figure.

More on Rachel Reeves

The data was revealed as Chancellor Rachel Reeves attends the World Economic Forum in Davos for a series of meetings with global business leaders in a bid to showcase the UK.

There is a chill, however, around the UK’s immediate economic prospects with investors recently piling pressure on her stewardship of the public finances by demanding higher risk premiums to hold UK government debt in the form of bonds, known as gilts.

Read more:
UK long-term borrowing costs highest this century
Reeves to meet US financiers in Davos
Wage growth and jobless rate rising

Long-term borrowing costs hit highs not seen since 1998 earlier this month, with the 30-year UK gilt yield still above 5%.

It ticked up by eight basis points in the wake of the ONS report being released.

The first six months in charge of the public finances have proved a baptism of fire for the chancellor, who promised during the election campaign to make economic growth her top priority.

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‘We need to grow our economy’

But she and the prime minister have been subsequently accused of shattering confidence through warnings of a “tough” budget ahead due to an alleged black hole in the public finances inherited from the Tories.

It was measured at £22bn and her fiscal statement on 30 October put business mainly on the hook for £40bn of tax increases announced.

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How the UK ranks as an investment destination

The economy is estimated to have largely flatlined during the second half of last year, with major employers warning that investment, jobs and pay growth ahead are under threat to help offset the impact of the additional costs due from April when tax hikes, including from employer national insurance contributions, take effect.

They have also stated that higher prices for consumers will also form part of the mix.

Employment figures released on Tuesday suggested that firms were already taking action.

Data from HM Revenue & Customs showed the number of payrolled employees was estimated to have fallen by 47,000 during the 12 months to December – the biggest drop since November 2020.

Economists see economic growth being supported this year by public sector investment announced in the budget.

The big question mark is over the contribution from the private sector.

Jessica Barnaby, deputy director for public sector finances at the ONS, said: “At almost £18bn, borrowing last month was the third highest in any December on record.

“Compared with December 2023, spending on public services, benefits, debt interest and capital transfers were all up, while an increase in tax receipts was partially offset by a reduction in national insurance contributions, following the rate cuts earlier in 2024.”

Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones said of the data: “Economic stability is vital for our number one mission of delivering growth, that’s why our fiscal rules are non-negotiable and why we will have an iron grip on the public finances.

“Through our spending review we will interrogate every line of government spending for the first time in 17 years. We’ll root out waste to ensure every penny of taxpayer’s money is spent productively and helps deliver our Plan for Change.”

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Chair of UK’s competition regulator removed by government

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Chair of UK's competition regulator removed by government

The chair of the UK’s competition regulator has been removed from his role by the government, amid its push for growth.

Marcus Bokkerink, the head of the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), has been removed from his post by the business secretary.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves met with regulators last week to impress upon them the centrality of economic growth to their activities.

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The CMA oversees deal-making and briefly paused the high-profile merger of Microsoft and gaming giant Activision-Blizzard.

Mr Bokkerink, a former senior partner at one of the world’s biggest consulting firms, was appointed in 2022 by then business secretary Kwasi Kwarteng. He could have served a five-year term.

A government source told Sky News: “This is a signal that we’re serious about changing the culture of regulation in order to get growth. The government wants to show it is serious about investment.”

The removal of the CMA chief comes as Ms Reeves and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, who took the decision, arrived in Davos to court overseas investors at the annual World Economic Forum.

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